Orlando City
Orlando City vs. Atlanta United: Five Takeaways
Orlando City saw its seven-match unbeaten run end in Atlanta in a forgettable match that the Lions must quickly put behind them with Montreal coming up on Wednesday. The 3-0 final score seems flattering to Orlando in the end, and if not for a couple of late saves from Adam Grinwis, this could have been just as ugly as the 5-0 loss at New York City FC earlier in the season.
Let’s get to the takeaways. Because we must.
Rivalry Game?
For a match against Atlanta, the Lions were surprisingly docile. Orlando never seemed to possess the same level of intensity as the Five Stripes. Atlanta came into the match with the proper attitude and fire in their bellies but Orlando City never matched that fire and certainly didn’t respond when punched in the mouth. The warning signs came early with a shot off of Adam Grinwis’ post and a few others that were close, but off frame. Win or lose, all fans want to see their teams play hard, especially against the teams they hate most. Orlando City fans did not see that in this game and it seemed to defy logic.
Midfield Overrun
When Junior Urso took a silly and needless yellow card against Columbus, it was a bad omen for Oscar Pareja’s Lions. Without Urso, and with Sebas Mendez both away with Ecuador and also still recovering from injury, Orlando was thin at central midfield. That is not to say there weren’t plenty of players available. Andres Perea returned to the starting lineup alongside recent starter Joey DeZart, while Uri Rosell and Raul Aguilera were on the bench. The number of central midfielders wasn’t the issue.
The problem was that the Lions lack a destroyer without Mendez and Urso is the only one who can approximate that bite in the middle of the pitch that all good teams need. Without either Mendez or Urso to worry about, the Five Stripes…didn’t. They just passed and ran right through the middle of the field all evening. When Rosell checked into the match in the 68th minute, he immediately started making Atlanta uncomfortable in that part of the field, and it was noticeable, with a couple of hard fouls that made the hosts think twice. Rosell forced Atlanta players to turn back toward their own end or drop passes back to the defense, which is something DeZart and Perea struggled to do.
Pareja wouldn’t single out any player or position group in his postgame presser but admitted the middle of the field was far too wide open for the hosts.
Drought Continues
The Crew game may have been a momentary blip. The Lions have been shut out in two of the last three matches and have scored one goal or fewer in seven of the last eight competitive games in all competitions (MLS plus Leagues Cup). Orlando was rarely threatening at Atlanta, with just a couple of shots on target and both of them straight at goalkeeper Brad Guzan. Daryl Dike, Mauricio Pereyra, Tesho Akindele, and Chris Mueller had zero shot attempts combined. There are some fundamental flaws in the attack right now, which leads me to my next takeaway.
Slooooooooooooow
Orlando has been too deliberate and has become far too predictable in playing negative passes over the summer months and it’s hurt the offense. Few Lions are showing any type of aggression in the attack and so it was against Atlanta. No one is beating anybody 1-v-1 and the team isn’t combining quickly enough (or accurately enough) on one-touch passing combinations once the ball reaches the final third. Players making runs, particularly Joao Moutinho, are too often ignored by the midfielders and not rewarded for expending the energy. This is dumb in Joao’s case because he’s a capable crosser.
Ruan was a passenger all evening at Atlanta, using his speed to get to the end line exactly once, and promptly crossing into the outside netting when he did. He’s not good enough defensively to be out there if he’s not going to create chaos on the attacking end. If he doesn’t return to being the dynamic player willing to make lung-busting runs up the wing to pull the defense’s attention away from other attacking players, Pareja should just put the more reliable, but less dynamic, Smith back in the lineup. That said, Orlando midfielders routinely ignored him when he was in acres of space on the right, which goes back to the “too deliberate” thing. The Lions played short, station-to-station passes and cycled back at the first sign of pressure when a whipped ball out to Ruan on the right may have unbalanced the defense.
More Cashflow Problems
This was a game screaming for an injection of Chris Mueller’s usual energy and drive. But Mueller didn’t start, and when he came on in the second half as a substitute, nothing changed. Perhaps Orlando City should just let him go to Hibernian now, because it’s been 12 matches since he’s contributed a goal or an assist, and he doesn’t look happy or appear to be his usual energetic self. Mueller has looked frustrated at times in every match during this offensive drought and while that could just be a product of not contributing on offense, it could also be that he’s ready to get started at Hibs and it’s affecting his play. He’s still putting in the effort, but his form isn’t good enough right now for him to start and Silvester van der Water has been the more dangerous player in Mueller’s usual spot for a couple of months now.
That’s the way I saw things in a game I’d like to scrub out of my brain. What stood out to you? Shout at me in the comments.
Orlando City
How Orlando City’s Offense Stacks Up Against What Atlanta Does Defensively
How Orlando City has performed against teams playing with three or four defenders, and how that may influence the playoff game against Atlanta United.
The most famous quote about real estate is that “there are three things that matter in property: location, location, location.” Soccer coaches also like to think in threes, especially when it comes to points, but for a soccer coach, the three things that matter might be the rhyming triplet “formation, formation, formation,” as that is where they will have the biggest influence on every game that their team plays.
Throughout his tenure as head coach, Óscar Pareja has preferred to use a 4-2-3-1 as his formation (fbref.com’s lineup data shows that the Lions primarily played a 4-2-3-1 in 65% of their MLS matches this season, and 79% of their MLS matches during the last three seasons). The Lions have lined up in a 4-2-3-1 during each of their last 14 games, and my confidence level is strong to quite strong (can you believe Meet the Parents came out 24 years ago?) that they will do so once again on Sunday when they host Atlanta United.
Atlanta United also prefers to deploy a 4-2-3-1, but was less consistent than Orlando City this season during MLS play, as evidenced by the chart below that shows how Atlanta lined up this season:
I am relying on the coders at Opta for their evaluation of the formation, as I do not watch a lot of Atlanta United matches (sounds terrible), but though Atlanta primarily played with four defenders in more than two-thirds of its matches, during the last two matches it played a 3-5-2, the only two matches all season in which interim coach Rob Valentino rolled out that formation. I suspect that the formation change was related partially to playing Inter Miami and trying to defend the Herons’ dynamic offense and partially due to an injury suffered by defender Brooks Lennon in the first game of that series. So, while Atlanta primarily played four in the back for most of the season, there is a good chance it will roll with what worked against Florida’s second-best MLS team when it plays Florida’s best MLS team this weekend.
Now, if you want to read more about Atlanta, then you can read our match preview, which will drop Sunday morning, but I want to look at how Orlando did against teams that play similar styles. Looking only at MLS games, the table below shows how Orlando City performed against different back line structures this season (the left side is how the Lions’ opponents lined up, the right side is how Orlando City performed against opponents in those formations):
Orlando City earned slightly more points per game — the stat that matters most — against teams that played four in the back, but the Lions had a better average goal differential when teams played three in the back. Atlanta will likely deploy one of those two formations. In both games against Orlando City this season, Sunday’s visitors went with a 4-2-3-1, but as mentioned earlier, they used three in the back in each of their last two matches, so it really could be either.
Soccer is not like baseball, where players primarily stay in the same spot throughout the game, so some of these stats have to be taken with a grain of salt, as players are not always rigidly in the same position throughout a match. A team may also primarily play with four in the back but switch to three when chasing a game, or five when trying to protect against a late goal.
That said, using the data around Orlando City’s opponents’ general formations, here are the attacking groups who played the most frequently against four defenders during the 24 MLS games where Opta coded the opponents as using a defensive group of four:
It is a little ominous that the main starting group, shown in row one, has played 666 MLS minutes against back lines of four this season, but do I like that green goal differential of +8 in those minutes, which is a strong +1.08 per 90 minutes. I like that goal differential more than I like all the things that Cardi B, Bad Bunny, and J Balvin like on their song that is creatively named “I Like It.” Coincidentally, when people ask me what I think about that song, I say, “I like it.” I am very creative.
If we look at the lineups that Orlando City has used against back lines of three defenders then there are some pretty major differences in personnel groupings, but it must be noted that more than half of the games against teams playing three in the back came early in the season, when Ramiro Enrique was unavailable to play. Enrique, my presumed starter at striker, has played fewer than three games’ worth of minutes (265 total) against back lines of three this season, and only 28 minutes with the main starting group, which ranks 13th among all the attacking lineups for minutes played against three defenders. That group scored one goal in their 28 minutes together though, for a robust 3.21 goals-scored-per-90-minutes average.
While the team as a whole has been successful against three-man back lines, I do not expect any of the lineups shown in the table below to play more than a few minutes together this weekend, though the first row and the last row are strong groups and had a lot of success.
I am sure that all week long the Orlando City coaching staff has been going back and forth on whether it is more likely that Atlanta reverts to its most commonly used four in the back, or if the Five Stripes try for three wins in a row with three in the back. I would prefer that Atlanta plays with zero defenders and goalkeeper Brad Guzan wears a blindfold, but I think that is unlikely to be the case.
Even though Atlanta defeated Orlando City both times while in a 4-2-3-1, based on available personnel and recent results, I believe that the team will come out in a 3-5-2 in Inter&Co Stadium in the conference semifinal. Good things come in threes, and Orlando City’s best offensive production this season has been against three defenders, so I am going to be hoping that this continues, and in the third game against Atlanta the Lions grab the three points. Three’s company!
Well, it is a playoff game, so there are no actual points at stake, but you know what I meant.
Vamos Orlando!
Orlando City
Orlando City vs. Atlanta United: Three Keys to Victory
What do the Lions need to do to get a victory to advance to the Eastern Conference final?
Orlando City continues its playoff journey against Atlanta United Sunday at Inter&Co Stadium. The Lions are coming off an emotional penalty shootout win over Charlotte FC in their best-of-three, first-round series. Likewise, Atlanta United stunned everyone by taking out Inter Miami to advance in its own best-of-three matchup. Now, the rivals meet in the Eastern Conference semifinals.
What does Orlando City need to do to get past Atlanta United to advance to the Easter Conference final?
Beat Guzan
Brad Guzan made 16 saves over Atlanta’s three matches against Inter Miami, including seven in the 3-2 win on the road in Game 3. The 40-year-old former USMNT keeper is in excellent form and is a big reason why the Five Stripes are facing Orlando City. Converting chances against Guzan will be crucial to earning a result. There have been times this season when the Lions have struggled to convert their chances. Despite that, the team has done enough offensively to get to this point. Facundo Torres, Martin Ojeda, Duncan McGuire, Ramiro Enrique, and others have contributed and will need to do so this weekend.
Cartagena is Essential
Orlando City lost twice to Atlanta United during the regular season. What is interesting, and perhaps relevant, is that Wilder Cartagena was out for both of those matches. Cartagena was shown a straight red in the match against Minnesota United prior to the first match against Atlanta way back in March. He was shown a yellow card in the match against FC Cincinnati and then served a yellow card accumulation suspension for the final match of the season against Atlanta. Fortunately for Orlando City, Cartagena will be available for the match this weekend. I’ve mentioned before the importance of Cartagena to Orlando City’s success. When he and Cesar Araujo are on the field together, the defense is simply better. Cartagena is frankly one of the better defensive midfielders in MLS. Atlanta scored five goals in the series against Miami, and Orlando will need to keep the visitors from having that kind of offensive success.
Overcome the Past
That darn international break in the middle of the playoffs is something I don’t love. More precisely, I don’t like it because Orlando City often struggles after a break. It would have been nice if Orlando City could have ridden the momentum from the penalty kick victory into the Atlanta match, but that’s not to be. Now is the time for Orlando City to break some bad habits, including turning around its historical lack of success against Atlanta, and tendency to struggle in the first match after a break. Oscar Pareja needs to have the players in the right frame of mind, and the players need to execute the plan. A full house of supporters can also make a difference. Given it’s a Sunday afternoon match, there’s no reason not to pack the house.
That is what I will be looking for Sunday afternoon. Let me know your thoughts in the comments below. Vamos Orlando!
Lion Links
Lion Links: 11/21/24
Marta’s chance to shine in NWSL Championship, NWSL and MLS award winners announced, 2025 SheBelieves Cup details, and more.
How’s it going, Mane Landers? I’ve been spending most of this week plotting out some holiday shopping to make things a little less stressful for myself over the next few weeks. A big weekend filled with Orlando soccer awaits us, so make sure to get any errands or obligations out of the way sooner rather than later. Let’s dive into today’s links!
Spotlight Falls On Marta in NWSL Championship
There are plenty of storylines heading into Saturday’s NWSL Championship between the Orlando Pride and Washington Spirit, including Marta’s opportunity to put an exclamation point on what has been an excellent season for the Pride. Orlando has been enjoying the fruits of its labor this season after a rebuild over the past few years that’s included plenty of change in the City Beautiful. Marta has been a constant, however, enduring some difficult seasons since joining the Pride and adapting her game She’s scored in both of the Pride’s playoff games so far and has a chance to author a storybook ending on Saturday.
Ann-Katrin Berger Named NWSL Goalkeeper of the Year
NJ/NY Gotham FC goalkeeper Ann-Katrin Berger was named 2024 NWSL Goalkeeper of the Year, beating out the Pride’s Anna Moorhouse and Utah Royals FC’s Mandy Haught for the honor. It was Berger’s first year in the NWSL and she’s the first European player to win the award. She only conceded 16 goals across her 22 matches for Gotham this season and was a key reason behind her team’s success. I’m not too surprised that Moorhouse did not win, considering how solid the Pride’s defense was as a whole, but this won’t take anything away from a record-breaking season for her.
Wilfried Nancy Named MLS Coach of the Year
Columbus Crew Head Coach Wilfried Nancy was voted 2024 MLS Coach of the Year after a historic season in which the Crew set club records in both points and goals. The Crew also won the Leagues Cup this summer and their 2024 Concacaf Champions Cup campaign included advancing past Tigres and Monterrey en route to the final. This is Nancy’s first time being named Coach of the Year and he has been a finalist for the award every year since 2021. The Frenchman received 40.02% of the vote, winning the award over Inter Miami’s Gerardo Martino and Colorado Rapids Head Coach Chris Armas.
2025 SheBelieves Cup Details Unveiled
The 10th annual SheBelieves Cup will take place next year and the tournament will return to its usual format where each of the four teams plays each other once. The United States Women’s National Team will host Japan, Colombia, and Australia in February in what should be an exciting tournament. The U.S. will take on Colombia on Feb. 20 in Houston before facing Australia in Arizona on Feb. 23 and finishing the tournament on Feb. 26 against Japan at Snapdragon Stadium in San Diego. These games will also be the first domestic games of 2025 for the USWNT as it prepares to qualify for the 2027 World Cup in Brazil.
Eric Quill Named FC Dallas Head Coach
FC Dallas announced that Eric Quill will become the team’s next head coach. Quill joins Dallas after a great year with New Mexico United that included trips to the U.S. Open Cup quarterfinals and USL Championship Western Conference semifinals. It’s also a reunion of sorts for Quill, as he previously coached North Texas SC and was named USL League One Coach of the Year with the club in 2019. Dallas missed out on the playoffs this season, with Peter Luccin coaching the team on an interim basis after the firing of Nico Estevez in June.
Free Kicks
- District of Columbia Mayor Muriel Bowser challenged Orlando Mayor Buddy Dyer to a bet involving this weekend’s NWSL Championship, with embarrassing lightshows on the line.
- Atlanta United interim head coach Rob Valentino, who was an Orlando City B assistant coach in 2015 and played for the USL Lions, spoke on Atlanta’s Cinderella run this postseason ahead of his team’s clash with Orlando City on Sunday.
- CF Montreal signed Canadian center back Joel Waterman to a contract extension that will keep him with the club through 2027 with an option for 2028 as well.
- D.C. United signed goalkeeper Jordan Farr from the Tampa Bay Rowdies on a two-year deal. Farr had 11 shutouts with the Rowdies this year and joins a D.C. side that declined the contract options for both Tyler Miller and Alex Bono last month.
- American forward Catarina Macario had an assist for Chelsea in a 3-0 win against Celtic in the Women’s Champions League.
- Spanish midfielder Juan Mata joined San Diego FC’s ownership group ahead of the club’s inaugural MLS season next year.
- Costa Rican club Alajuelense, which is the highest-ranked team in Central America, has hired a legal firm regarding FIFA allowing both Pachuca and Club Leon to take part in the 2025 Club World Cup despite having the same owner.
That’s all I have for you this time around. I hope you all have a wonderful Thursday and rest of your week!
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