Orlando City
Intelligence Report: Orlando City vs. FC Cincinnati
This week is a little different, as Orlando City has a rare Friday night game to shake things up a bit. The Lions head north to Ohio to try to exact some revenge against FC Cincinnati, the team that dealt OCSC its first loss of the season.
Ahead of this one I spoke to Geoff Tebbetts, one of the contributors over at Cincinnati Soccer Talk. Geoff was kind enough to help get us up to speed on FCC ahead of tonight’s rematch.
Brandon Vazquez continues to make scoring look fairly easy and now has eight tallies to go along with three assists. Are his scoring numbers something that you saw coming or has this been a pleasant surprise for the Cincy faithful?
Geoff Tebbetts: Sometimes it takes a coaching change to unlock the full potential of a player. Two years ago, under Jaap Stam, Vazquez started a handful of games up front with Jurgen Locadia, but FCC didn’t really have a playmaker behind him to thread the needle. Last year, Luciano Acosta was brought in to be that playmaker, but the formation favored a single striker and complimentary wingers, leaving Vazquez on the outside again as a substitute.
Considering the focus has been on Brenner and Acosta, the proof of Vazquez’s ability had been invisible, but when he was used more as a second striker at the end of the 2021 season, it bore fruit. Vazquez started scoring, but the lack of defensive depth meant that his goals didn’t lead to positive results.
Now that the goals are leading to positive results with the team behind him providing more of a defensive presence, yeah, it feels like a pleasant surprise, but it was there. It also helps that assistant coach Dom Kinnear is working more with Vazquez to achieve an attack that maneuvers better in the final third. Vazquez is finding cracks in the box, and crosses that were once missed are now meeting their targets.
The 26 goals FC Cincinnati has conceded is the third worst number in the East, and a goal differential one worse than Charlotte is the only thing keeping FCC out of a playoff spot at the moment. What does this team need to do to tighten things up at the back?
GT: What they need to do is tell everyone to forget about that first awful week against Austin!
The 5-0 away loss to Austin had many pieces missing from the start. Brenner and Alvaro Barreal were both out as they worked back into playing form after an extended off-season. Dom Badji and Alvas Powell both came on after the game had been long decided. The match was basically a disposable mulligan.
Since then, the 4-3-1-2 formation has been used much less and exchanged for a 3-5-2 formation or a 4-3-3 defensive formation. For both, Junior Moreno and newly acquired Obinna Nwobodo have played a solid defending midfield, while John Nelson has been a dependable plug-in at the left back after the team lost Ronald Matarrita for the season. Even rookie goalkeeper Roman Celentano has displayed smarts and technique from the back while Alec Kann has been out.
However, the team is still trying to figure out the composition of its back line. Geoff Cameron and Tyler Blackett are both underachieving this season, and Ian Murphy is still a bit green, even though he’s playing his comfortable center back spot. Nick Hagglund has been surprisingly the most consistent on the back line, but you need more than just one CB having an above-standard season. Chris Albright and Pat Noonan will need to search for another back when the transfer window opens.
After 15 games played Cincy has already matched the number of points it accumulated during the entirety of last year. What do you think the ceiling for this team is this year?
GT: As FC Cincinnati fans, we’ve been down this path before. FCC has had 11, 13, and 14 points at this point over the past three seasons. Eclipsing that point total before the halfway point of the season feels both glorious and harrowing. The floor has to fall under us at some point, right?
However, there is evidence that the team has turned misfortune into short-term success. The -4 goal differential isn’t terrific, but it is still miles better than the -16 differential at this point last year. Players are being mentioned as (dare we say it?) MVP candidates and possible USMNT call-ups. Most importantly, the team is winning at home!
The numbers are not lying. FCC had 10 instances in 2021 where they held a lead but lost points in the end (four draws, six losses), resulting in 26 lost points. The team lost games from goals given up in the 75th minute or later six times. In 2022, FCC has blown leads only twice, resulting in six lost points, and while they have lost twice in the final 15 minutes, they have also won twice in the final 15 minutes. That’s a positive turnaround, no matter how you slice it.
If this team can maintain its point trend compared to other teams, it’ll barely miss the playoffs, and that’s a positive for a city that wants the glory days of the USL to return. But if this team stays healthy, gets two above-average signings in the transfer window, and finds a way to turn on a second or third source of offense, why couldn’t a home playoff game be a possibility? That might be a big ask for a team that struggled last year, but if Vancouver and RSL could ride that wave in 2021, why can’t we?
Are there any injuries, suspensions or other absences that will keep players unavailable for selection? What is your projected starting lineup and score prediction?
GT: No suspensions expected here! While FCC does absorb yellow cards, only Nwobodo and Blackett are in danger of getting suspended from their next yellow card.
Moreno and Badji are the only real injury concerns. As of Thursday, Moreno has been doing side work with the squad, while Badji has been ruled out with a leg injury. Matarrita is still the only major injury (ankle) with no certain timetable for return.
Goalkeeper Alec Kann might be back after missing his last eight matches due to a lower body injury. Forward Calvin Harris has been out while awaiting a green card, so he might be out if he’s not back to full training. Acosta and Yuya Kubo had been in COVID protocol recently, but they should be healthy for the game.
Like the last match against Orlando, I’m guessing Noonan plays a 3-5-2 lineup.
Roman Celentano; Nick Hagglund, Geoff Cameron, Ian Murphy; Alvas Powell, Obinna Nwobodo, Luicano Acosta, Yuya Kubo, John Nelson; Brandon Vazquez, Brenner.
As far as predictions are concerned, I do see Orlando getting some measure of revenge. They’re much like FC Cincinnati in the sense that they have performed well on the road, but fallen on hard times at home. If Moreno and Badji were both expected to play, I would call for an FCC win, but I’ll pick a 2-2 draw.
Many thanks to Geoff for the excellent insight into FC Cincinnati. Vamos Orlando!
Orlando City
How Orlando City’s Offense Stacks Up Against What Atlanta Does Defensively
How Orlando City has performed against teams playing with three or four defenders, and how that may influence the playoff game against Atlanta United.
The most famous quote about real estate is that “there are three things that matter in property: location, location, location.” Soccer coaches also like to think in threes, especially when it comes to points, but for a soccer coach, the three things that matter might be the rhyming triplet “formation, formation, formation,” as that is where they will have the biggest influence on every game that their team plays.
Throughout his tenure as head coach, Óscar Pareja has preferred to use a 4-2-3-1 as his formation (fbref.com’s lineup data shows that the Lions primarily played a 4-2-3-1 in 65% of their MLS matches this season, and 79% of their MLS matches during the last three seasons). The Lions have lined up in a 4-2-3-1 during each of their last 14 games, and my confidence level is strong to quite strong (can you believe Meet the Parents came out 24 years ago?) that they will do so once again on Sunday when they host Atlanta United.
Atlanta United also prefers to deploy a 4-2-3-1, but was less consistent than Orlando City this season during MLS play, as evidenced by the chart below that shows how Atlanta lined up this season:
I am relying on the coders at Opta for their evaluation of the formation, as I do not watch a lot of Atlanta United matches (sounds terrible), but though Atlanta primarily played with four defenders in more than two-thirds of its matches, during the last two matches it played a 3-5-2, the only two matches all season in which interim coach Rob Valentino rolled out that formation. I suspect that the formation change was related partially to playing Inter Miami and trying to defend the Herons’ dynamic offense and partially due to an injury suffered by defender Brooks Lennon in the first game of that series. So, while Atlanta primarily played four in the back for most of the season, there is a good chance it will roll with what worked against Florida’s second-best MLS team when it plays Florida’s best MLS team this weekend.
Now, if you want to read more about Atlanta, then you can read our match preview, which will drop Sunday morning, but I want to look at how Orlando did against teams that play similar styles. Looking only at MLS games, the table below shows how Orlando City performed against different back line structures this season (the left side is how the Lions’ opponents lined up, the right side is how Orlando City performed against opponents in those formations):
Orlando City earned slightly more points per game — the stat that matters most — against teams that played four in the back, but the Lions had a better average goal differential when teams played three in the back. Atlanta will likely deploy one of those two formations. In both games against Orlando City this season, Sunday’s visitors went with a 4-2-3-1, but as mentioned earlier, they used three in the back in each of their last two matches, so it really could be either.
Soccer is not like baseball, where players primarily stay in the same spot throughout the game, so some of these stats have to be taken with a grain of salt, as players are not always rigidly in the same position throughout a match. A team may also primarily play with four in the back but switch to three when chasing a game, or five when trying to protect against a late goal.
That said, using the data around Orlando City’s opponents’ general formations, here are the attacking groups who played the most frequently against four defenders during the 24 MLS games where Opta coded the opponents as using a defensive group of four:
It is a little ominous that the main starting group, shown in row one, has played 666 MLS minutes against back lines of four this season, but do I like that green goal differential of +8 in those minutes, which is a strong +1.08 per 90 minutes. I like that goal differential more than I like all the things that Cardi B, Bad Bunny, and J Balvin like on their song that is creatively named “I Like It.” Coincidentally, when people ask me what I think about that song, I say, “I like it.” I am very creative.
If we look at the lineups that Orlando City has used against back lines of three defenders then there are some pretty major differences in personnel groupings, but it must be noted that more than half of the games against teams playing three in the back came early in the season, when Ramiro Enrique was unavailable to play. Enrique, my presumed starter at striker, has played fewer than three games’ worth of minutes (265 total) against back lines of three this season, and only 28 minutes with the main starting group, which ranks 13th among all the attacking lineups for minutes played against three defenders. That group scored one goal in their 28 minutes together though, for a robust 3.21 goals-scored-per-90-minutes average.
While the team as a whole has been successful against three-man back lines, I do not expect any of the lineups shown in the table below to play more than a few minutes together this weekend, though the first row and the last row are strong groups and had a lot of success.
I am sure that all week long the Orlando City coaching staff has been going back and forth on whether it is more likely that Atlanta reverts to its most commonly used four in the back, or if the Five Stripes try for three wins in a row with three in the back. I would prefer that Atlanta plays with zero defenders and goalkeeper Brad Guzan wears a blindfold, but I think that is unlikely to be the case.
Even though Atlanta defeated Orlando City both times while in a 4-2-3-1, based on available personnel and recent results, I believe that the team will come out in a 3-5-2 in Inter&Co Stadium in the conference semifinal. Good things come in threes, and Orlando City’s best offensive production this season has been against three defenders, so I am going to be hoping that this continues, and in the third game against Atlanta the Lions grab the three points. Three’s company!
Well, it is a playoff game, so there are no actual points at stake, but you know what I meant.
Vamos Orlando!
Orlando City
Orlando City vs. Atlanta United: Three Keys to Victory
What do the Lions need to do to get a victory to advance to the Eastern Conference final?
Orlando City continues its playoff journey against Atlanta United Sunday at Inter&Co Stadium. The Lions are coming off an emotional penalty shootout win over Charlotte FC in their best-of-three, first-round series. Likewise, Atlanta United stunned everyone by taking out Inter Miami to advance in its own best-of-three matchup. Now, the rivals meet in the Eastern Conference semifinals.
What does Orlando City need to do to get past Atlanta United to advance to the Easter Conference final?
Beat Guzan
Brad Guzan made 16 saves over Atlanta’s three matches against Inter Miami, including seven in the 3-2 win on the road in Game 3. The 40-year-old former USMNT keeper is in excellent form and is a big reason why the Five Stripes are facing Orlando City. Converting chances against Guzan will be crucial to earning a result. There have been times this season when the Lions have struggled to convert their chances. Despite that, the team has done enough offensively to get to this point. Facundo Torres, Martin Ojeda, Duncan McGuire, Ramiro Enrique, and others have contributed and will need to do so this weekend.
Cartagena is Essential
Orlando City lost twice to Atlanta United during the regular season. What is interesting, and perhaps relevant, is that Wilder Cartagena was out for both of those matches. Cartagena was shown a straight red in the match against Minnesota United prior to the first match against Atlanta way back in March. He was shown a yellow card in the match against FC Cincinnati and then served a yellow card accumulation suspension for the final match of the season against Atlanta. Fortunately for Orlando City, Cartagena will be available for the match this weekend. I’ve mentioned before the importance of Cartagena to Orlando City’s success. When he and Cesar Araujo are on the field together, the defense is simply better. Cartagena is frankly one of the better defensive midfielders in MLS. Atlanta scored five goals in the series against Miami, and Orlando will need to keep the visitors from having that kind of offensive success.
Overcome the Past
That darn international break in the middle of the playoffs is something I don’t love. More precisely, I don’t like it because Orlando City often struggles after a break. It would have been nice if Orlando City could have ridden the momentum from the penalty kick victory into the Atlanta match, but that’s not to be. Now is the time for Orlando City to break some bad habits, including turning around its historical lack of success against Atlanta, and tendency to struggle in the first match after a break. Oscar Pareja needs to have the players in the right frame of mind, and the players need to execute the plan. A full house of supporters can also make a difference. Given it’s a Sunday afternoon match, there’s no reason not to pack the house.
That is what I will be looking for Sunday afternoon. Let me know your thoughts in the comments below. Vamos Orlando!
Lion Links
Lion Links: 11/21/24
Marta’s chance to shine in NWSL Championship, NWSL and MLS award winners announced, 2025 SheBelieves Cup details, and more.
How’s it going, Mane Landers? I’ve been spending most of this week plotting out some holiday shopping to make things a little less stressful for myself over the next few weeks. A big weekend filled with Orlando soccer awaits us, so make sure to get any errands or obligations out of the way sooner rather than later. Let’s dive into today’s links!
Spotlight Falls On Marta in NWSL Championship
There are plenty of storylines heading into Saturday’s NWSL Championship between the Orlando Pride and Washington Spirit, including Marta’s opportunity to put an exclamation point on what has been an excellent season for the Pride. Orlando has been enjoying the fruits of its labor this season after a rebuild over the past few years that’s included plenty of change in the City Beautiful. Marta has been a constant, however, enduring some difficult seasons since joining the Pride and adapting her game She’s scored in both of the Pride’s playoff games so far and has a chance to author a storybook ending on Saturday.
Ann-Katrin Berger Named NWSL Goalkeeper of the Year
NJ/NY Gotham FC goalkeeper Ann-Katrin Berger was named 2024 NWSL Goalkeeper of the Year, beating out the Pride’s Anna Moorhouse and Utah Royals FC’s Mandy Haught for the honor. It was Berger’s first year in the NWSL and she’s the first European player to win the award. She only conceded 16 goals across her 22 matches for Gotham this season and was a key reason behind her team’s success. I’m not too surprised that Moorhouse did not win, considering how solid the Pride’s defense was as a whole, but this won’t take anything away from a record-breaking season for her.
Wilfried Nancy Named MLS Coach of the Year
Columbus Crew Head Coach Wilfried Nancy was voted 2024 MLS Coach of the Year after a historic season in which the Crew set club records in both points and goals. The Crew also won the Leagues Cup this summer and their 2024 Concacaf Champions Cup campaign included advancing past Tigres and Monterrey en route to the final. This is Nancy’s first time being named Coach of the Year and he has been a finalist for the award every year since 2021. The Frenchman received 40.02% of the vote, winning the award over Inter Miami’s Gerardo Martino and Colorado Rapids Head Coach Chris Armas.
2025 SheBelieves Cup Details Unveiled
The 10th annual SheBelieves Cup will take place next year and the tournament will return to its usual format where each of the four teams plays each other once. The United States Women’s National Team will host Japan, Colombia, and Australia in February in what should be an exciting tournament. The U.S. will take on Colombia on Feb. 20 in Houston before facing Australia in Arizona on Feb. 23 and finishing the tournament on Feb. 26 against Japan at Snapdragon Stadium in San Diego. These games will also be the first domestic games of 2025 for the USWNT as it prepares to qualify for the 2027 World Cup in Brazil.
Eric Quill Named FC Dallas Head Coach
FC Dallas announced that Eric Quill will become the team’s next head coach. Quill joins Dallas after a great year with New Mexico United that included trips to the U.S. Open Cup quarterfinals and USL Championship Western Conference semifinals. It’s also a reunion of sorts for Quill, as he previously coached North Texas SC and was named USL League One Coach of the Year with the club in 2019. Dallas missed out on the playoffs this season, with Peter Luccin coaching the team on an interim basis after the firing of Nico Estevez in June.
Free Kicks
- District of Columbia Mayor Muriel Bowser challenged Orlando Mayor Buddy Dyer to a bet involving this weekend’s NWSL Championship, with embarrassing lightshows on the line.
- Atlanta United interim head coach Rob Valentino, who was an Orlando City B assistant coach in 2015 and played for the USL Lions, spoke on Atlanta’s Cinderella run this postseason ahead of his team’s clash with Orlando City on Sunday.
- CF Montreal signed Canadian center back Joel Waterman to a contract extension that will keep him with the club through 2027 with an option for 2028 as well.
- D.C. United signed goalkeeper Jordan Farr from the Tampa Bay Rowdies on a two-year deal. Farr had 11 shutouts with the Rowdies this year and joins a D.C. side that declined the contract options for both Tyler Miller and Alex Bono last month.
- American forward Catarina Macario had an assist for Chelsea in a 3-0 win against Celtic in the Women’s Champions League.
- Spanish midfielder Juan Mata joined San Diego FC’s ownership group ahead of the club’s inaugural MLS season next year.
- Costa Rican club Alajuelense, which is the highest-ranked team in Central America, has hired a legal firm regarding FIFA allowing both Pachuca and Club Leon to take part in the 2025 Club World Cup despite having the same owner.
That’s all I have for you this time around. I hope you all have a wonderful Thursday and rest of your week!
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