I spend a lot of time thinking about ways to quantify soccer players and soccer teams, because even though I love soccer purely as a game, I am always thinking about how to measure what I see as well. There is a scene in the movie Moneyball in which Brad Pitt, acting in the role of Oakland A’s General Manager Billy Beane, says that he does not even watch the games. In his eyes, he has done all the analyzing and put the team in the best situation in which to succeed, but the games are random, so he does not even watch.

I will never reach the point where I would rather just look at the statistics to see what happened as opposed to watching the games, but I will also never stop trying to figure out ways to channel Tina Turner and figure out who is simply the best. And so, while we are still in off-season mode and do not have any new games to look at, I thought I would look at something that is always enjoyable: offensive attacking players.

ESPN soccer writer Ryan O’Hanlon, a favorite of mine, recently wrote an article ranking the top 100 men’s attacking players in Europe based on data. In that article, he created a formula for how he ranked the players, and I took that formula and applied it to MLS. His formula is pretty simple, as it has four inputs:

• Goals
• Expected Assists
• Progressive Carries
• Progressive Passes

The idea is to find the players who put the most pressure on a defense, and who puts more pressure on a defense than a player who scores goals, completes passes to teammates in scoring positions (regardless of whether they actually score or not), carries (dribbles) the ball at least 10 yards towards the goal in the attacking half of the field, or completes passes of 10 yards or more towards the goal in the attacking half of the field?

Basketball coaches always talk about being in “triple threat” position when you receive the ball, as you want to be able to dribble, pass, or shoot, and while scoring in soccer is slightly different than basketball, the idea is still the same — goals are created by players dribbling, passing, or shooting.

O’Hanlon’s formula is the following: Goals Scored + Expected Assists + 0.0113 (Progressive Carries + Progressive Passes)

I know there is an obvious question when you see this formula, and that is about how did he arrive at the 0.0113 value. Looking at the 2022 and 2023 seasons in Europe’s top leagues, he determined that a goal was scored per every 88.44 progressive actions, and so, as I know all of you just did in your head, one goal per 88.44 progressive actions = 1 divided by 88.44 = 0.0113. Actual goals scored and passes completed to teammates in shooting positions are valued much more highly than just attacking dribbles and forward moving passes, but if we are looking to find out who is attacking during each game I liked how he laid out his reasoning for what he called his version of a soccer “game score,” modeled after a concept created by the father of sports analytics, Bill James, for starting pitchers in baseball.

For those of you still awake, it is now about to pay off, because now we will look at Orlando City’s players going back to 2018, the first year Opta started tracking expected assists and progressive carries and passes for MLS. We will look at this statistic in two different ways: once as an overall score, which favors the players who played in more games and therefore contributed more attacking plays, and then we will normalize all the data on a per-90-minute calculation, to see who made the most of their minutes on the field.

Without any further ado, and without any Freddy Adu, your top 10 Orlando City attacking players since 2018 by their aggregated full season game scores (reminder that the 2020 MLS season was 23 games instead of 34; all data from fbref.com):

Player	Season	Season Game Score	Rank in MLS	MLS Best that Season
Nani	2019	22.0	8	50.7
Facundo Torres	2023	20.9	10	31.1
Facundo Torres	2024	20.0	21	32.6
Facundo Torres	2022	17.4	25	33.7
Duncan McGuire	2023	16.3	26	31.1
Nani	2021	16.2	26	26.6
Sacha Kljestan	2018	15.6	46	38.0
Chris Mueller	2020	14.8	11	21.8
Yoshimar Yotún	2018	14.7	53	38.0
Dom Dwyer	2018	14.3	58	38.0

I cannot say that I am surprised that Nani and Facundo Torres lead the way for Orlando City attacking players. They both played a lot of minutes and had a lot of the ball during their time in purple, and they are two of the best offensive players to ever play for the Lions. Data for expected assists and progressive actions was not available in Kaká’s era, but had it been, I am sure he would have made this list as well. The player who likely would have benefitted the most, however, is Cyle Larin, as even with no available data for expected assists or progressive actions, he would have ranked fifth with just his 2015 season tally of 17 goals.

Any metric that heavily weights goals favors forwards, as they usually score the most goals, as evidenced by the fact that Harry Kane led all of the major European leagues (England, France, Germany, Italy, and Spain) in 2024 with a score of 44.0, and Denis Bouanga led MLS at 32.6. Looking at Orlando City though, it is quickly evident that the team has primarily been led by attacking midfielders as opposed to forwards when it comes to the attack. Larin might have passed Nani for the single-season lead had there been other data for him, but perhaps not, as he was a finisher and not someone who was involved as much in the buildup.

The last item around the aggregated season-long totals is to look at how far away Orlando City’s leading players always were as compared to the MLS leader. The Lions have only averaged 1.5 goals/game or more (in MLS regular season play) during five of their 10 seasons, and only at least 1.7 twice. Larin remains the only player to score more than 14 goals in a regular season, and so for any metric where goals are heavily weighted, like this one, which is attempting to evaluate attacking production, Orlando City’s individual players will often lag far behind those from other teams, even though the full team has been successful in recent years.

We could also look at this data in a different way, and instead of looking at the aggregated scores for the season, which benefits those who play the most minutes, look at per-90-minute game scores instead. In many cases I prefer to normalize the data and evaluate everyone not on totals but by looking at per-90 statistics, but in this case I will present the per-90 data, but I think the raw data matters more, because I wanted to see who had the best overall attacking season, and overall production matters more than per-minute production in this case. If you disagree, I will happily entertain your reasoning in the comments.

Looking at game scores normalized per 90 minutes, Orlando City’s top 10 since 2018 looks as follows (among players who played at least 500 minutes in a season):

Player	Season	Game Score/90	Rank in MLS	MLS Best that Season
Duncan McGuire	2023	1.06	5	1.11
Chris Mueller	2020	0.91	9	1.15
Nani	2019	0.87	13	1.67
Nani	2021	0.80	21	1.24
Benji Michel	2020	0.80	21	1.15
Facundo Torres	2023	0.79	24	1.11
Nani	2020	0.79	23	1.15
Ramiro Enrique	2024	0.78	30	1.62
Daryl Dike	2021	0.76	27	1.24
Chris Mueller	2019	0.76	34	1.67

Some of the same full-season leaders are on this list as well, but we also see the entrance of several players who rarely had the burden of being expected to play a full game. McGuire, Benji Michel, and Ramiro Enrique were more supersub or rabbit-type players who started with the expectation of going around 60 minutes or came off the bench for the final third of the game. While they had to be productive to make the top 10 ranking, their smaller sample size of minutes helps them on a per-90-minute calculation.

The Money Badger, Chris Mueller, makes this list twice, and while his post-Orlando City career has likely not been what he hoped, I wonder whether I did not appreciate how well he performed while a Lion. Torres played a lot of minutes during all three of his seasons with the club, and so while he racked up counting numbers (which it is important to note are what matters when trying to win games), his per-minute performance knocks two of his three seasons out of the top 10 (2024 was 16th and 2022 was 24th). Nani remains elite, whether by totals or per-minute calculations, and McGuire’s 2023 season moves to the top for Orlando City. That season ranked fifth in 2024 and 33rd overall among all MLS seasons since 2018, and makes it hurt all the more that he will be out for a few months to start the 2025 season.

It sure would be nice to have some more attacking options joining the team for 2025 with McGuire’s injury and Torres’ departure. I am just saying. Loudly.

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This article is about Orlando City, but I wanted to briefly flip to the Pride to note that Barbra Banda’s 2024 full-season game score was 19.2 in a season that had eight fewer games than a standard MLS season. Banda ranked second in the league in overall game score and game score per 90 minutes, which for her was 1.04. That darned Temwa Chawinga (26.6 total, 1.12 per 90) of the Kansas City Current beat her out for both the total and per-90 lead.

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As with any metric that tries to pull in different parts of a player’s performance, nothing is perfect, and any measurement formula could be tweaked until the lions sleep at night. In looking at how the results shook out across the major European leagues in O’Hanlon’s original article and in my own application to MLS, I found that the rankings seemed to work to push players who pass the eye test and the math test (my favorite test, to the surprise of no one) to the top of these charts.

I plan to continue to look at this metric, among others, throughout the 2025 season to see how Orlando City and the Orlando Pride’s players are performing. I hope to see players in purple at the top of the charts, though at this point I am more confident in those being Pride players than Lions. With every week that passes, we get closer to the 2025 season, and comparing predictions and hopes to actual results, and I am as excited as ever for the new seasons to start.

Vamos Orlando!

The first game of Orlando City’s 2025 preseason went to penalties after a 0-0 draw in front of an announced crowd of 11,912 at Inter&Co Stadium in the FC Series. The Lions won the postgame shootout 6-5 in seven rounds to claim something called the Inter&Co Trophy against Atletico Mineiro.

Overall, the performance was good, although the finishing wasn’t, as the Lions created more opportunities than the visitors, but two weeks into preseason it was evident that the final bit of precision wasn’t quite there.

“It was great to come back to our place and have a game, and especially against the rival. A good match,” Orlando City Head Coach Oscar Pareja said after the match. “I felt that we took the most out of the game under the circumstances. We just started the preseason, and having this match and the competitiveness that the boys showed today was first class. We’re happy. We’re ready to leave to our camp (in Mexico) and keep going.”

Pareja’s starting lineup included Pedro Gallese in goal behind a back line of Rafael Santos, Rodrigo Schlegel, David Brekalo, Alex Freeman. Cesar Araujo and Wilder Cartagena started in midfield behind an attacking line of Yutaro Tsukada, Martin Ojeda, and 16-year-old Gustavo Caraballo, with Luis Muriel up top.

The teams played to a scoreless first half, with the Lions creating the better scoring chances, but the rust was evident as Orlando City wasted multiple good scoring opportunities.

The game’s first few shots came off of Orlando headers. Muriel redirected a cross on target in the third minute but couldn’t generate much power, sending it softly to Atletico Mineiro goalkeeper Everson. A few minutes later, Tsukada got to a bouncing diagonal cross but couldn’t direct it on frame. Brekalo got his head to a free kick cross in the eighth minute, but his shot was also sent directly at Everson.

Mineiro’s first shot of the match came 12 minutes in, when Gustavo Scarpa fired over the bar from well outside the area.

Orlando resumed the attack and Tsukada attempted a shot in the 18th minute from outside the area that deflected off a defender for a corner kick. The initial cross into the area was cleared but the recycled cross found Freeman near the left post, however, the fullback sent his header wide.

Great opportunity for @OrlandoCitySC – Alex Freeman miss the target pic.twitter.com/zyoi4BvvkG

— FC Series (@FC_series) January 25, 2025

Schlegel conceded a pair of dangerous free kicks a few minutes after Freeman’s missed opportunity, but the Brazilian side couldn’t do anything with either of them. The second ended up deflecting off the wall and was picked up on the left by Guilherme Arana, who fired off target.

Caraballo should have scored in the 27th minute as Ojeda did well to get a cross from the left through to the far side. The teenager missed just wide from point-blank range, as the ball appeared to skip up off the turf on him at the last second.

Cartagena went down with an injury off the ball moments later and had to come off. He was helped to the locker room by the training staff. Kyle Smith replaced him in the lineup.

Gallese made his first good save of the game in the 35th minute, diving to keep out a good shot from distance by Fausto Vera.

Great finish by Fausto Vera – @Atletico is getting closer to the opener against @OrlandoCitySC pic.twitter.com/hvlI0DIH44

— FC Series (@FC_series) January 25, 2025

Muriel set up Ojeda with a nice layoff at the top of the box in the 41st minute, but the midfielder couldn’t get his shot on frame, continuing the theme of the day for Orlando City.

The Lions again should have opened the scoring just seconds into first-half stoppage time. The Lions had a good attack up the left and Ojeda slipped in Ramiro Enrique, who had come on for Muriel late in the half. Enrique fired but Everson did well to make the save. The rebound came straight to Tsukada, with almost the entire net to shoot at, but the young winger sent his shot too close to the goalkeeper, who got a piece of it to keep it out.

Another great chance for @OrlandoCitySC against @Atletico ! pic.twitter.com/5WauznUNC9

— FC Series (@FC_series) January 25, 2025

Ojeda had the final shot of the half, sending a good effort through traffic but it was right at Everson. The teams went into the break without a goal.

The Lions had more shots (10-5), shots on target (4-1), and corners (4-2) in the first half.

Atletico Mineiro saw more of the ball in the second 45 minutes, but the Orlando City defense held up well, even after several substitutions, as Atletico Mineiro wasn’t able to threaten Gallese’s goal often. However, the Lions also didn’t create as much danger in the second half as they did in the opening period.

One of Orlando’s best opportunities in the second half came just after the restart. Caraballo sent Tsukada down the left but the winger fired wide of the goal in the 47th minute.

Gabriel Menino had one of Atletico’s best second-half chances in the 52nd minute, but he sent his shot over the bar from the top of the 18-yard box. After another long-range effort by the visitors sailed high over the net, Gallese made a save on a one-hopper from the top of the box in the 58th minute for his best stop of the second half.

Enrique fired just over the bar from the top of the semicircle in the 60th minute as the wasteful chances continued for Orlando. The forward had plenty of space to pick out his spot, but he leaned back a bit and his shot stayed high as a result.

There were virtually no chances created between the hour mark and the end of normal time, with both teams subbing often and the players who started noticeably tiring. The most noteworthy action was substitute Dagur Dan Thorhallsson took an accidental high boot to the head and had to come off. Pareja had no updates about Thorhallsson, Cartagena, or Muriel after the match.

“It is hard at this moment where we’re starting the preseason just to see guys coming out of the pitch with pains and things,” he said. “We’re praying that everything is good, but I have no other report.”

With no goals on the board through stoppage time, the game went to penalties after a 0-0 draw.

“We were obviously planning right after the game, who was going to take (penalties), and the boys were so engaged in the competition,” Pareja said. “It’s what they are. They want to compete, regardless of it’s a friendly game. They want to win it. And they were expressing that feeling, we need to win this game.”

Smith took the first shot from the spot in front of The Wall at the north end of the stadium, scoring to put his team ahead. Igor Gomes followed suit for Atletico Mineiro after coming to a complete stop in his run-up for about two seconds.

Enrique restored Orlando’s lead, only to see Brahian Palacios equalize on a stutter-step that clearly moved backward. Brekalo made it 3-2 with a bouncer that skipped over Everson’s outstretched arm, before Rubens made it 3-3 after three rounds.

Second-half sub Ivan Angulo saw Everson stop his penalty attempt in the fourth round, giving Atletico a chance to seize control. However, the Brazilian side’s No. 9, Deyverson, sent his blast over the bar to keep things even after four rounds.

Gallese took matters into his own hands (or feet) by scoring in the fifth round, but his counterpart Everson sent a shot under the crossbar to send the shootout into sudden death.

He saves and also scores! This is Gallese! ⚽️💥 pic.twitter.com/JkZp4FIuxY

— FC Series (@FC_series) January 25, 2025

Freeman, who played the entire game, fired home to put Orlando up again, only to see Otavio equalize, as once again a Mineiro player came to a prolonged stop in his run-up. The teams went into the seventh round tied at 5-5.

“I feel like I didn’t want to take it differently,” said Freeman, who has been a regular penalty taker with OCB in shootouts. “I feel like I just wanted to stay confident. Obviously, there’s more fans, and obviously, there’s a little bit more pressure, but I feel like I did that. I just walked up confidently, and I kind of knew what spot I wanted to go.”

Rookie Joran Gerbet took an unorthodox approach and scored to put the Lions back in front in the seventh round.

“It’s been like something I exercise a lot since the last two, three years at Clemson,” Gerbet said of his penalty. “I was like, the one who was taking (them), so I’m just, like, used to it. So, yeah, it’s just like the routine, I guess.”

Defender Bruno Fuchs fired toward Gallese’s right, but Peruvian guessed correctly and kept the shot out with a strong right hand to win the shootout.

POV: You were on the field watching the penalties and saw Gallese make the last and decisive save 🧤 pic.twitter.com/kF1RE8m6Zg

— FC Series (@FC_series) January 25, 2025

Pareja was able to get a lot of Homegrowns and academy kids into the match against a good Brazilian side.

“At the end of the game, I was seeing a bunch of guys that grew up in our academy,” he said. “And today, they made us feel that they have the case (to be) in the team already. So, I’m very proud for every single one that had minutes today and made us feel that result of the effort and what they’re investing in the academy.”

Here’s the full highlight reel from the match:

⚽️ Highlights from @OrlandoCitySC's 0-0 draw against @Atletico at Inter&Co Stadium | Orlando City clinched a 6-5 victory in the penalty shootout! pic.twitter.com/vKQh6aIP2g

— FC Series (@FC_series) January 25, 2025

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Orlando City is off to Mexico for the next week of camp. While there, the Lions will face Forge FC from the Canadian Premier League before returning to Central Florida. The next game open to the general public will be held in Tampa as the Lions face Inter Miami at Raymond James Stadium on Feb. 14.

The opening day of the 2025 Major League Soccer season is less than 30 days, and Orlando City is preparing for the opener against Philadelphia. With a full slate of preseason matches that recently dropped, the 2025 Lions will soon take to the field to put the final touches on preparing various tactics for the season ahead. That starts today with a friendly against Atletico Mineiro.

While there are numerous questions regarding the offensive side of the pitch for Orlando City, the defense should be an area of strength for OCSC as the season begins, and it may need to be, as any new attacking pieces brought in this late in the off-season will need time to settle in.

Starting with the dynamic duo of Cesar Araujo and Wilder Cartagena, Orlando once again will have the good fortune of fielding one of the best defensive midfield pairings in all of MLS. While both Araujo and Cartagena are technically sound and strong defenders on their own, there is a noticeable difference in overall team defense when they both play together. Araujo, who has recently been the target of transfer speculation, is now expected to be locked into Orlando City purple for the upcoming season. He and Cartagena have demonstrated a great ability to take opposing star players out of the game plan, and there is little question regarding their importance when it comes to the successful start of the season.

Moving back toward the goal, Orlando City also returns a complete back line consisting of captain Robin Jansson, Rafael Santos, Dagur Dan Thorhallsson, and either David Brekalo or Rodrigo Schlegel. The tactics employed by Head Coach Oscar Pareja call for the fullbacks to get into the offensive flow as often as the game allows, and both Thorhallsson and Santos have shown that they are capable of attacking. While that part of their game is a bonus, their ability to get back and defend — especially against the counter — will be an early skill to watch as the season begins.

At this point in his career, there will be very few surprises from Jansson, as fans and the coaching staff know exactly what type of effort to expect out of the center back. The only piece of the back line puzzle that will be interesting to watch throughout the early part of the season will be who earns the right to slot in next to Jansson. Due to injury and international duty a season ago, Schlegel wound up winning the starting role from the newly acquired Brekalo. My gut instinct tells me that with an off-season of preparation, we will likely see the younger and more athletic Brekalo get the nod to start the year, with Schlegel the primary backup for both starting center back positions.

Finally, the man who anchors it all, goalkeeper Pedro Gallese, will have the benefit of familiarity when it comes to the defenders in front of him. Gallese ended the 2024 season on a hot streak, in great form, showing his quality in the second half of the season and the playoffs, stopping multiple penalty kicks. He tied for fifth place among all goalkeepers with eight clean sheets in 2024 and will undoubtedly look to add to his career club record as the 2025 season begins.

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With all of the defensive starters from the 2024 season back for 2025, Orlando City’s defense is expected to be the cornerstone of early season matches while the offense sorts itself out. The success then, especially during those first few matches, will likely live or die on the shoulders of the back seven defensive players.

Do you expect any cracks in the Orlando City defense to start the year or are you feeling confident in their ability to handle the new attacking pieces that have been added to the Eastern Conference? Let us know in the comments below and as always, vamos Orlando!