As so often happens in articles about soccer, I am going to open by writing about…not soccer. The NBA regular season is in its final days, and so a lot of the discourse on podcasts or TV shows about basketball is about who deserves what awards for the 2024-2025 season. This is not the place for that discussion, though I do think my son’s favorite Orlando Magic player, Paolo Banchero, has had a great season. What I want to explore as it relates to basketball awards is how the concept of “usage” plays a big role when comparing players against one another.

Usage in basketball is essentially a measure of what percent of a team’s possessions were finished by a given player, whether it was via a shot, turnover, or offensive foul. There are different formulas for usage, as some get even more intricate as it relates to the definition of a possession, but we are going to change the subject to soccer momentarily so let’s not dwell on the basketball metric any longer than necessary. The critical part of usage is that it is easier to put up scoring numbers — the numbers fans often default to when evaluating who are the best players, when you have a much higher usage rate. If most possessions end with the ball in your hands, then the offense is likely designed around you, and the opportunities will be there for more baskets.

In soccer, usage can be looked at similarly, with goals instead of baskets, and I will draw on the work of several other authors in how they have calculated usage, or, as they often refer to it, possession-ending actions. In soccer it is similar to basketball, but we will get more nuanced with the definition. Here are the possession-ending actions I used, with all data coming from Opta’s tracking on fbref.com:

• Shots
• Incomplete passes
• Failed Ttake-ons
• Dispossessions
• Miscontrols

I looked at this data in two ways: first by normalizing the data by taking the total number of possession-ending actions and calculating it on a per-90-minutes-played basis (PEA / 90) , and then also by taking a player’s possession-ending actions and dividing them by the total number of possession-ending actions for the whole team, to see their percentage (usage rate). Here is a look at Orlando City’s performance thus far this season (I’m only including field players who have played at least 300 minutes, but a quick shout out to Gustavo Caraballo for generating a PEA per 90 minutes of 40 in his nine minutes played thus far this season. Gustavo was really goosing the throttle when he had the ball. I’ll see myself out.):

It is nice when data backs up the eye test, and the eye test thus far this season definitely shows that Cesar Araujo, Robin Jansson, and Rodrigo Schlegel play conservative soccer, which is critical being that they generally possess the ball in the center of the field near their own goal, whereas the attacking players and the fullbacks are much more likely to be trying to create something on offense, and therefore ending a possession.

I was a little surprised to see Rafael Santos as the player who is ending the most possessions on a per-90-minute basis, but he is someone who is constantly looking to switch the field or play in a cross, and those are low-probability passes that have a low completion rate, meaning they often end a possession.

Usage rate depends heavily on minutes played, as despite the name, it has elements of a counting statistic in it, and it was not surprising to see the top three players in usage rate being non-central defenders who had played a lot of minutes. Santos is again high here because of his style of play, but as it appears that he may be fighting for his starting position, that number will likely drop over the next few games, unless he wins back the left back role.

As a quick aside, only one Orlando City player had a usage rate in double digits during MLS regular-season play in 2024, and as you may have guessed, that player was indeed Facundo Torres, with exactly 10%.

Usage rate is really a statistic that helps identify players who are trying to make something happen (shots, incomplete passes, failed take-ons, dispossessions) or who are targets for teammates trying to make something happen (miscontrols of a ball passed to them), but ultimately what is the most impactful when trying to make something happen is whether a shot gets created, because shots turn into goals, and that is how games are won. If we look at the same group of Lions and focus specifically on creating shots (shot-creating actions + shots taken), the story looks a little different in terms of where those come from:

Alex Freeman, Martin Ojeda and Marco Pašalić lead the way in usage rate, but they are closely grouped together, and Eduard Atuesta, Luis Muriel, and Santos were not too far behind. Ojeda is in a class by himself when it comes to creating shots though — significantly ahead of Muriel and Pašalić. Freeman is well ahead of his defensive teammates too, and if you look at the scatterplot below of all MLS defenders from 2024 and 2025, you can see that there are very few defenders who are as attack minded and who help create as high a percentage of their team’s shots as he does (Freeman’s 2025 season is in the purple bullseye, 2024 defenders played at least 500 minutes and 2025 defenders played at least 300 minutes):

I know someone who was driving the Freeman bandwagon last year, and that person, who may or may not have written the words you are are reading right now, is pretty fired up about how much he is contributing for the Lions this season.

I mentioned earlier that Ojeda is well ahead of his teammates in 2025 in shot-creation percentage, but there are some other MLS players who are far more of a focal point of their team’s offense than he is. The below chart is formatted similarly (the y-axis is on the same scale but the x-axis is not, as attacking players generally create a much higher percentage of shots), and is for midfielders and strikers for for the 2024 and 2025 MLS seasons (Ojeda’s 2025 season is in the purple bullseye, and the same minimum minutes played requirements are in place):

As you might have guessed from the pink bullseye, that is indeed Lionel Messi, with his 25.6 possession-ending actions per 90 minutes and 24% of his team’s shots created thus far this season. Messi’s metrics existing above and to the right of Ojeda’s on this chart is not an indication that he is better than Ojeda (although to be fair, he might be), but what it shows is that he initiates more attacking plays and is involved in more of Miami’s shots than Ojeda is in Orlando City’s.

The age-old quantity vs. quality conversation exists as it relates to looking at usage rate and the percentage of shots created by a player. Whether it be basketball or soccer, teams are not looking for players who create or take shots. They want players who will create and make shots. Taking on defenders every time you receive the ball or constantly trying to hit risky passes will increase the various counting and rate stats, but unless a player is successful with those take-ons and passes, what they will more likely get is a seat on the bench and a pause on accumulating any new stats.

I will be tracking the usage numbers throughout the season, and we will revisit them later in the year to see what has changed. With the return of Duncan McGuire to fitness, it will be interesting to see what that does to Ojeda’s usage if he starts to play more minutes out on the wing — and also to that of Muriel if he more frequently plays as the number 10 instead of playing as a striker. The insertion of David Brekalo into the starting lineup may unleash Freeman even more and evoke more comparisons to his wide receiver father as he flies up the sideline looking to receive a long bomb and turn it into a score.

In the end, the stats from this article are not ones that players will be trying to improve. They are more descriptive statistics that explain how the team — and particularly the offense — has interacted thus far this season. Usage rate may be important, but what is more important is that Orlando City gives the opposing net some serious usage in the match this weekend.

Vamos Orlando!

Orlando City returns to Inter&Co Stadium Saturday night. For the second week in a row, the Lions close out the regular-season series with an Eastern Conference opponent. This time it is the New York Red Bulls. Orlando City is coming off its first clean sheet of the season but also the first time the club did not score a goal. Ideally, the Lions repeat the former but change the latter. Here’s what Orlando City needs to do to earn all three points against the New York Red Bulls.

Break on Through (Part Deux)

When these two teams last met I wasn’t sold on the Orlando City offense, particularly against a stubborn Red Bulls defense. Of course, I did manage to include this little nugget:

“On paper this looks like a low-scoring match, so it will probably be a barn burner.”

The resulting 2-2 draw told me that Orlando City could indeed score goals, and it was the beginning of four matches unbeaten, so far. Following last week’s anemic showing, I want the Lions to find their scoring boots once again.

It won’t be easy with Carlos Coronel in goal for the Red Bulls and a stout defense in front of him. New York has only allowed seven goals so far this season, though two of those came against Orlando City. Defenders like Tim Parker and Noah Eile are difficult to break down. They also have Dylan and Sean Nealis — I know “Nealii” is not the plural for referring to the pair, but it is in my heart.

To match the previous multi-goal output against the Red Bulls, Orlando City needs the three Designated Players to return to getting goal contributions. We know this team knows how to score, given it still leads the league despite not scoring last week. I want at least one goal (and preferably more) from Luis Muriel, Martin Ojeda, or Marco Pasalic.

Return of the Midfield

Last match, both Cesar Araujo and Eduard Atuesta were kept out as a precautionary measure due to experiencing tightness during training late in the week. Hopefully, things have loosened up and we can have them back on the pitch. I’m not saying anything about the performances of Dagur Dan Thorhallsson and Joran Gerbet. Those two were a big part of why Orlando City held the Philadelphia Union scoreless, but I think Araujo and Atuesta are better able to facilitate the ball from the defense to offense, thus increasing scoring opportunities.

As of now, we’re not sure who will be available, but I expect the starters to return. Hopefully, there aren’t any lingering knocks that make them less effective. That goes double for Araujo, as he is the enforcer that is tasked with shutting down transition opportunities for the Red Bulls.

Another Clean Sheet

Orlando City earned the first clean sheet of the season last week and I want the team to do it again. The Red Bulls have a pair of attackers who are very dangerous in Emil Forsberg and Eric Choupo-Moting. Each have contributed three goals so far this season, and each has contributed one assist. Shutting them down will go a long way to stopping the Red Bulls’ attack.

I expect we will once again see a back line consisting of Robin Jansson and Rodrigo Schlegel in the center with Alex Freeman at right back, and David Brekalo at left back. This allows Oscar Pareja to feel better about Freeman moving up the field into the attack while having three of his best defenders in front of Pedro Gallese.

That is what I will be looking for Saturday night. Let me know your thoughts in the comments below. Vamos Orlando!

How’s it going, Mane Landers? Yesterday was the anniversary of adopting my cat, so I spent most of the day giving him whatever he wanted. Thankfully, that turned out to just be quite a bit of napping for both of us. It’s been nice to just hang out with him and enjoy some soccer throughout the week. We have even more soccer to look forward to this weekend, but let’s get this Thursday started with today’s links!

Transfer Priorities for Eastern Conference Teams

The current transfer window is open until April 23 and Tom Bogert of GiveMeSport dove into what MLS Eastern Conference teams should focus on this window and in the summer. While he noted that adding some depth at center back would be nice, for Orlando City, he chose re-signing midfielder Cesar Araujo as the biggest priority before his contract expires at the end of the year. The 24-year-old has been an integral part of Orlando City’s turnaround under Head Coach Oscar Pareja, so it will be interesting to see if he sticks around in the City Beautiful after this season.

Orlando Pride Prepare for the Seattle Reign

With the international break now over, the Orlando Pride will hit the road for a match against the Seattle Reign on Saturday. The Pride have won their first three matches of the year, conceding just once in the process. Meanwhile, the Reign will aim to right the ship at home this weekend after a 2-1 loss on the road against Angel City FC last month. Pride Head Coach Seb Hines spoke on how winning in Seattle is difficult, even if the team is undergoing a rebuild of sorts.

Pride midfielder Summer Yates, who is a Washington native and played collegiate soccer in Seattle, also spoke on what it will be like to return to her home state for this match. She also discussed the team’s depth, which is a strength for the Pride as players return from international duty.

Orlando City B Beats New England Revolution II

Orlando City B picked up a win at home Wednesday night, beating New England Revolution II 1-0, thanks to a late goal from Shak Mohammed. Great passing sent Mohammed in on goal with only the goalkeeper to beat, and he handed New England its first conceded goal of the season. That goal proved to be the difference, as the Young Lions did well defensively to secure their third win and second clean sheet this season. OCB’s next game will be Tuesday against Inter Miami II at IMG Academy in Bradenton.

Philadelphia Union Reportedly Trading Daniel Gazdag

Despite a strong start to the season, the Philadelphia Union are reportedly set to trade away one of their best players to a fellow Eastern Conference team. Designated Player Daniel Gazdag will reportedly be traded to the Columbus Crew for cash. I don’t entirely hate the trade. Trading away a 29-year-old on the last guaranteed year of his contract while undergoing a rebuild makes sense. It also opens the door for Cavan Sullivan or David Vazquez to earn valuable minutes, with Indiana Vassilev available as well. However, Gazdag is the club’s all-time leading scorer and already has two goals and two assists this year. Trading him within the conference to an unbeaten Crew team this early in the season feels a bit like a white flag in regards to Philadelphia’s aspirations this year.

Free Kicks

• Real Salt Lake is reportedly in talks to sign Slovakian forward Robert Bozenik as a Designated Player. Bozenik has recorded 19 goals and four assists in his past three seasons with Boavista in Portugal’s top flight.
• Philadelphia center back Ian Glavinovich underwent successful surgery after tearing his meniscus in the Union’s draw with Orlando City.
• The International Olympic Committee announced some changes for soccer at the 2028 Summer Olympics in Los Angeles. The women’s soccer tournament has expanded and will feature 16 teams, while the men’s tournament has contracted and will include just 12.
• Paris Saint-Germain and Barcelona breezed through their first legs in the UEFA Champions League quarterfinals. Robert Lewandowski had a brace in Barcelona’s 4-0 win over Borussia Dortmund, while PSG’s Khvicha Kvaratskhelia put Aston Villa defenders on skates to score a great goal in his team’s 3-1 victory.

• The Europa League quarterfinals kick off today, with Manchester United taking on Lyon and Tottenham facing off against Eintracht Frankfurt. Bodo/Glimt, which leads the tournament so far with 24 goals, will play Lazio, and Rangers will host Athletic Club in Scotland.
• Following talks with its fan advisory board, Manchester City announced that it will freeze ticket prices for next season.
• Fabio Cannavaro was fired by Dinamo Zagreb after just 14 competitive matches. The Italian soccer legend was Zagreb’s third coach this season and won five of his 10 league matches at the helm in Croatia.

That’s all I have for you today. I hope you all have a wonderful Thursday and rest of your week!