Opinion
Predicting Orlando City’s September Matches
Let’s look into the crystal ball and predict the rest of Orlando City’s matches during the month of September.
Once Major League Soccer returns to play following the current international break, we will officially be in the home stretch of the season. Orlando City will play seven games to close out the 2023 regular season, with four of them taking place during the back half of September. I’m going to take a crack at predicting those four games, three of which will take place at the comfortable confines of Exploria Stadium.
Sept. 16 — vs. Columbus Crew
All of the matches are important at this stage of the season, but this one carries added weight for several reasons. For starters, it’s the first game back after a two-week layoff, and a strong performance and good result might very well set the tone for the rest of the run-in. In addition, Columbus sits two points behind the Lions in fifth place, making this one a “six-pointer” if you will. We already know that OCSC will be without Wilder Cartagena due to a red card suspension, and there’s no telling if Antonio Carlos and Gaston Gonzalez will be fit by then. The Crew, like Orlando, are in pretty good form and won three of their four games coming back from the Leagues Cup break, so this is not going to be an easy game by any means. However, I think the Lions are going to be really up for this one, and already showed themselves to be capable of getting a result against the Crew earlier this year.
Prediction: 2-1 Orlando City.
Sept. 20 — at New York City FC
This one has all the makings of a horror show. Playing on short rest against an NYCFC team that gave Orlando plenty of trouble earlier in the year, plus playing on the baseball diamond at Citi Field? Then add in the fact that OCSC will be playing Miami at home the following Sunday in a match that’s almost certainly been circled on the calendar since the Herons bounced Orlando from Leagues Cup in painful and controversial fashion. I don’t like anything about this game, and it feels like one that Oscar Pareja might take a punt on lineup-wise to try to keep key players fresh and ready for the following game. NYCFC won’t have Maxi Moralez due to an ACL tear, and the team has struggled this year, but I don’t think it’ll matter in this one.
Prediction: 2-0 NYCFC.
Sept. 24 — vs. Inter Miami
This one is going to be an absolute heater. Orlando will likely be jostling for a good playoff place, Miami quite possibly will be bearing down on getting into the playoffs, and two teams who hate each other, with the Lionel Messi circus coming to town. Plus, with the physicality and controversy involved the last time these teams met, it’s going to be mental, and OCSC is absolutely going to be out for revenge. I fully expect it to be fast, physical, and intense, and that seemed to play into the Lions’ hands during the Leagues Cup game prior to the penalty call. I could be wrong, but this just feels like one where the intensity of a packed Exploria Stadium helps get Orlando the win.
Prediction: 2-1 Orlando City.
Sept. 30 — vs. CF Montreal
I sense a letdown coming in this match, however. Yes it’s at home, but it feels like Orlando could be in for a bit of a lukewarm performance following what will likely be an extremely emotional and physically intense game against Miami. Montreal has been fairly solid, if inconsistent, this year but has already shown to be capable of beating OCSC earlier this year. This feels like a game where Orlando lets in an early goal, and wakes up in the second half, but the rally doesn’t quite get all the way over the line. You can’t win them all, and the Lions have to settle for a point at home to close out the month.
Prediction: 1-1 draw.
If results fall the way that I think they will, Orlando would tally a 3-1-1 record during September and pick up 10 of 15 available points, both of which are perfectly respectable and would likely allow the Lions to keep pace at the top of a crowded Eastern Conference. All we can do now is sit back and see how things unfold. Vamos Orlando!
Orlando City has enjoyed a great run of form over a significant amount of its summertime fixtures, but as October quickly approaches, only a handful of matches remain on the schedule to pick up points and score goals. The Lions have been paced by their two stars in Designated Player Facundo Torres and USMNT Olympian Duncan McGuire. Currently, through 29 matches, Torres leads Orlando City with 12 goals and McGuire is right on his heels with nine. Let’s take a look at the underlying numbers to try to predict who will ultimately finish the Major League Soccer regular season as the top goal scorer for OCSC.
Facundo Torres
At this point in his Orlando City career, everyone should just accept the fact that Torres starts to heat up right about the same time as the Central Florida temperatures. Three years running and the DP has consistently started slowly before roaring to life over the summer months of the season. The 2024 campaign is no different, as it took Torres six MLS regular-season matches to score his first goal of the year and then another seven games before finding the back of the net for goal number two. After almost half the season (15 matches) Torres stood firm on those two goals and, coincidentally, his team’s position in the standings reflected his sluggish start.
Torres finally started to turn things around on June 19 against Charlotte FC and found the back of the net six times before the Leagues Cup interrupted the regular season near the end of July.
Since returning to action after the Leagues Cup, Torres has bagged an additional four goals and currently sits just two goals shy of his career high, which was set during the 2023 campaign. Facu has netted 12 throughout the regular season across 27 matches and 2,216 game minutes played. He has logged 54 total scoring attempts and has placed 25 of those attempts on target for a shooting percentage of 46.3%.
Duncan McGuire
So much has been made about McGuire’s off-season transfer drama that it might as well just be turned into its own telenovela at this point. Despite all of the drama and back and forth, McGuire has continued to work and has been nothing short of a consummate pro for both his club and country. McGuire scored his first and second of the year in a 3-2 loss to Minnesota United FC back on March 9, and throughout the first half of the season, he did well to find the back of the net fairly frequently, scoring about once every other game between March 30 and May 15. Time away representing the United States certainly played a role in McGuire finding himself as second on the goal-scoring list instead of leading it for Orlando City, as prior to the Sept. 14 match against the New England Revolution, McGuire’s last goal came all the way back on June 28 against New York City FC.
McGuire sits four goals behind the 13 that he scored in his rookie campaign as he has contributed nine through 23 matches and 1,465 game minutes. He has logged 35 total scoring attempts and has placed 15 of those attempts on target for a shooting percentage of 42.9%.
Projecting Orlando’s Top Scorer
If the current starting lineup holds true over the final five matches of the year, I have a hard time projecting that McGuire could be able to catch and then surpass Torres, even though he is only three goals behind. McGuire has operated out of a super substitute role since rejoining the squad from the Olympics, and if that role continues, then he will have far less time on the field compared to Torres to find the back of the net.
McGuire has done his best over the last two matches, scoring in each game quickly after entering, but at this point, he is unlikely to crack the starting lineup again before the end of the year. Not to mention that in the last two matches when McGuire has scored, Torres had already found the back of the net, keeping the striker at the same deficit despite McGuire’s efforts.
Torres is also the go-to penalty kick taker for the team and has converted two of his three attempts on the year, giving him the ability to pad his numbers from the spot should an opportunity arise over the last stretch of matches. Falling back to the numbers, Torres’ shooting percentage is few ticks better than McGuire’s and should allow him a slightly higher statistical chance to find the goal more times before the end of the season than his second-year counterpart.
I think they both should just keep scoring with reckless abandon…what a great problem to have! Do you think McGuire will catch Torres? Let us know in the comments below and as always, Vamos Orlando!
Opinion
Martin Ojeda Can Further Build on an Improved 2024
Martin Ojeda has picked things up after a slow start to the season, but he has room to play even better.
Argentinian attacking midfielder Martin Ojeda finished his maiden season in an Orlando City uniform with six goals and 10 assists. While 16 goal contributions in his first year in a new league with unfamiliar surroundings isn’t a terrible return, there was a widespread sense that he didn’t perform at the level the Lions needed from a Designated Player. He improved the deeper Orlando got into the year though, and coming into the 2024 season, a lot of the projections involving OCSC being one of the best teams in the league were predicated on him taking the next step and becoming a true force in Major League Soccer. So, has that happened?
The broad numbers say that it hasn’t. Through 27 appearances and 1,582 minutes, Ojeda has three goals and eight assists, compared to six goals and 10 assists in 34 appearances and 1,751 minutes in 2023. The Argentine still has time to eclipse his totals from last year, but barring a positively explosive run of form, it’ll take him more minutes to do so. For my money, it isn’t quite that simple though.
For one thing, Ojeda has shown improvement in two key areas: passing accuracy and key passes. His accuracy is up to 84% in 2024, while it was 79% last season. He’s also already eclipsed his total for key passes in 2023, currently sitting on 45, compared to the 42 he finished with in his debut season in purple. That suggests that not only is he passing the ball better, but he’s also putting it in more dangerous areas than previously. Some of that is to be expected, considering his shift into the center of the field to play the no. 10, but he’s still had to adapt to the new position, and he’s looked more and more comfortable as the year has continued.
Let’s talk about that positional change a little. The first few months of the season were ugly for just about everyone wearing an Orlando City jersey. Guys were hurt, off on international duty, or suspended, and many of the ones who could play were forced to do so in positions that weren’t natural for them. At various points throughout the early months of 2024, he found himself playing in the hole behind two strikers, as a deep-lying playmaker, deputizing at striker himself, or dropped from the starting XI entirely.
It was hard to argue with him coming off the bench, as he had just three assists in the 16 games prior to the LAFC match on June 15. He got his first league goal of the year in that match though, and in the 11 games since then, he’s recorded two goals and four assists. While not a staggering return, he’s trending in the right direction. Outside of the numbers, he looks capable of being able to produce at a higher level.
Saturday’s match against Nashville SC provided two specific instances which I found encouraging. The first was his assist on Ivan Angulo’s opening goal, specifically the way in which Ojeda created the goal.
Everything about that is fantastic. The anticipation and work rate to get into a position to intercept the wayward pass, the vision to see Angulo’s position, the quick decision to play the one-touch pass, and the execution to deliver that pass squarely on the money. One of the knocks on Ojeda in an OCSC shirt has been his decision making and execution in the final third, as at times he’s settled for long potshots or held onto the ball too long before trying to find a teammate. None of that was on display here, and the speed of thought, coupled with the execution, meant that Orlando grabbed an early lead.
Let’s then talk about the turn he executed at midfield during the buildup to Facundo Torres’ first goal. Ojeda receives the ball, takes a touch, neatly slips it through a defender’s legs, and then immediately drives hard at the Nashville defense before releasing the ball and finding Torres in space. It’s one moment of skill, but it’s something that happens when you have a guy who’s playing with confidence, and the fact that he then made the right pass at the right time makes it even better.
Those are the moments that we’ve started to see more of from the Designated Player as the year has gone on, and we’ll need to continue seeing more of if Orlando City wants to keep pushing up the table.
Ojeda has a chance to improve on his debut season and really make an impact for the Lions down the stretch. If he keeps playing with confidence, making the correct decisions, and executing in the way that he’s shown this summer, it should bode well for OCSC. Vamos Orlando!
Opinion
Potential Orlando City Lineup Changes for Nashville SC
What player changes can Orlando City make to get back on the winning track?
Once Oscar Pareja finds a lineup he likes, he tends to stick with it. This is not necessarily a bad thing when the team is playing well and earning points. It can be if he is slow to make changes when things start to not be so good and the team is dropping points, like in the match against Sporting Kansas City.
I think it’s time to shake some things up. Here are my recommendations.
Left Back Luca
Luca Petrasso has been killing it with Orlando City B as of late. He’s also looked pretty good in the limited time with the senior squad. This is a player with a first-team contract who went on loan to Triestina for six months, has gotten quality minutes with OCB, and should now be given a chance to start at left back.
It might sound a little crazy, but neither Rafael Santos nor Kyle Smith has played very well recently when they have gotten the start. A change is needed, and giving Petrasso a start is a good way to reward his play both with OCB and with the few minutes he’s managed with the first team. Honestly, I’m not sure it would be much worse than what Santos and Smith have provided in recent games, so Pareja might as well give it a go.
Midfield Move
Let me first say that I’m talking about the attacking midfield. Defensive midfielders Wilder Cartagena and Cesar Araujo are a bright spot on a team that has struggled recently. I’m talking about shaking things up a little higher up the pitch.
Given that Martin Ojeda, Facundo Torres, and Ivan Angulo have all been starting recently, that only leaves Nico Lodeiro to bring on for one of those three. I don’t see Pareja sitting Torres, so let’s take that off the table. If he were to sit Angulo, then that would likely mean moving Torres to the left side. We all know that Torres prefers the right side so he can cut across the defense and put the ball on goal with his favored left foot. You also lose Angulo’s speed, and I don’t expect Angulo to have another match like he did against Kansas City.
That leaves Ojeda out. I’m not saying he’s been worse than the other two, but from a tactical perspective it makes the most sense for Lodeiro to replace Ojeda. That allows the other two to stay in their preferred spots, and for Ojeda to come on around the 60th minute with fresh legs. Lodeiro has enough in the tank to do it, and some sort of change is needed to get the attack going again.
Orlando Runs on Duncan
Ramiro Enrique went on a goal-scoring tear up until two matches ago. Because of Enrique’s form, even after Duncan McGuire signed his new contract, the Argentine got the next two starts. The first of those against Cruz Azul on Aug. 9 was no big deal. Nobody scored in that one. Then there was a two-week break before Saturday’s 24 match against Sporting Kansas City. Still no goal for the young striker, and even worse, he started putting the ball out or right at the keeping in both of those matches.
Now, it’s time to put Big Dunc back in the starting lineup. He has his new contract, and giving him the start with something to prove after subbing in these last few matches could spark the Orlando City attack once more. Additionally, there is a reason he got the new deal. He knows how to score goals, and sometimes you just need to get out there to make it happen. The added benefit is that Enrique will be motivated to win back that starting spot when he’s coming off the bench.
That’s what I’d like to see this Saturday night from Orlando City. Let me know your thoughts in the comments below.
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