With a record of 4-2-4 to start the season, Orlando City has had a solid start to 2025 and currently occupies seventh place in the Eastern Conference with 16 points. There have been some great wins like the ones we saw against D.C. United and Atlanta United, and the defense has started to look much better with four straight clean sheets. While Oscar Pareja has had to work around injuries to important guys like Eduard Atuesta and Cesar Araujo, the Lions have managed pretty well for the most part and could be in even better position if not for a couple of ill-timed red cards in back-to-back games.

Speaking of Atuesta and Araujo, Pareja said that Cesar should be back and ready to play this weekend, and with Atuesta having made his return against Atlanta, the Lions should once again have their first-choice XI available for selection. It hasn’t come a moment too soon either, because OCSC is set to play eight matches during the month of May, and it’s looking like a bit of a gauntlet.

Orlando will play at the Chicago Fire Saturday night, at the Tampa Bay Rowdies on May 7 in the U.S. Open Cup, at home against the New England Revolution on May 10, at home against Charlotte FC on May 14, on the road against Inter Miami on May 18, at home against the Portland Timbers on May 24, on the road against Atlanta on May 28, and at home against Chicago on May 31.

In terms of fixture congestion and travel, it can’t get much rougher. Traveling to play Miami and then Portland each on short rest isn’t ideal, but at least the Miami match comes after a home game, albeit against a good Charlotte team. The really tough stretch comes at the end of the month when the Lions travel to Portland, go to Atlanta on short rest, and then return home on short rest against Chicago.

Fortunately, May isn’t littered with games against teams that have made strong starts to the seasons (yet). Chicago, New England, and Atlanta all sit below Orlando in the East, with Chicago and Atlanta enduring particularly difficult spells at the moment. That doesn’t mean there aren’t good teams on the slate though, as Charlotte and Miami are fourth and fifth in the East, respectively, and Portland is second in the West and in a three-way tie for the most goals scored in the league.

It isn’t going to be easy by any stretch of the imagination, but it should be a month where we find out a lot more about this team and how well it’s going to hold up in the business end of the season. We’ll also have a much better idea of the level of the squad’s depth, as some careful rotation is going to be needed to keep the wheels from falling off the starting XI. The Lions still have some injury concerns with Joran Gerbet on the shelf, and while Ramiro Enrique was on the bench against Atlanta, he has yet to actually make his return from injury.

Barring a deep run into either Leagues Cup or the U.S. Open Cup, May will by far be the busiest month of the year for OCSC. Between fixture congestion and some tough opponents, it isn’t going to be easy, but if the Lions are able to come through this month strong, it could well be the sort of experience that gives the team confidence and belief that it can get the job done in adversity, while also getting some valuable minutes for depth and rotation players.

Make no mistake, the boys in purple have a very important stretch of games to play this May. Time to buckle up and see how they perform. Vamos Orlando!

Happy Friday! We’ve made it through the week and have plenty of Orlando soccer ahead of us to enjoy. I don’t have many plans this weekend beyond working, but it should still be a nice couple of days. Before we get to today’s links, we have a trio of birthdays to celebrate. Let’s all wish a happy birthday to Orlando City’s Dagur Dan Thorhallsson, Orlando Pride midfielder Luana, and Orlando City B defender Hayden Sargis!

Alex Freeman’s Breakout Season Highlighted

The folks over at Stars and Stripes FC have shined their spotlight on Orlando City right back Alex Freeman, who is enjoying a breakout season this year with the Lions. The 20-year-old has started in nine of the team’s 10 games this season and has three goals and an assist under his belt so far. He helped the United States U-19 Men’s National Team win the Slovenia Nations Cup in 2022 and could factor into the 2026 World Cup plans for the USMNT if he continues to improve as a player.

Orlando City Faces the Chicago Fire on Saturday

Orlando City will take a seven-game unbeaten streak to Soldier Field for a match on Saturday against the Chicago Fire. The Lions are coming off an April that included three scoreless draws and an emphatic 3-0 rivalry win over Atlanta United. The Fire have not won at home yet this season and have conceded 22 goals, which is tied with D.C. United for the most in the league. Orlando Head Coach Oscar Pareja spoke on the team’s preparations, as well as how players returning to full fitness should help give depth as the team gets ready to balance the U.S. Open Cup with the regular season.

Jarrod Dillon Receives Downtowner of the Year Award

OCSC President of Business Operations Jarrod Dillon was named 2024 Downtowner of the Year by the Downtown Orlando Partnership for his contributions to the success of downtown Orlando. Amid historically successful seasons by both the Lions and Pride last season, Dillon secured a new naming rights partner for the club’s stadium and has helped bring events like the FIFA Club World Cup and Copa America to the City Beautiful. Dillon joined the club in 2022, and it’s great to see that he’s already had an impact in the community.

Analyzing the Longevity of NWSL Parity

Jeff Kassouf of ESPN took an interesting dive into how future expansion in the NWSL can affect parity in the league going forward. The league’s parity has certainly been a positive aspect of the NWSL compared to leagues in Europe that are dominated by the same teams year in and year out. However, expansion could thin the depth of talent throughout the NWSL, and other variables like the elimination of the college draft may make it harder for teams at the bottom to climb out. While I don’t think the league’s competitive balance will be in jeopardy any time soon, I agree that it will be an interesting thing to keep an eye on in the coming years, especially if the NWSL expands too fast too soon.

Free Kicks

• The game ball for Orlando’s win over Atlanta went to the recently promoted Ricardo Moreira, as it was his first win as the club’s general manager and sporting director.

• NJ/NY Gotham FC forward Esther González was named NWSL Player of the Month after scoring an impressive seven goals in April.
• Seattle Sounders star Jordan Morris will be out for an estimated six weeks due to a hamstring injury according to Head Coach Brian Schmetzer. Jesus Ferreira is also nursing an adductor injury and is questionable to play on Saturday.
• Both of the English clubs dominated in the first legs of the Europa League semifinals. Manchester United beat Athletic Club 3-0 on the road, while Tottenham won 3-1 at home against Bodo/Glimt.
• There’s plenty to tune in for in this weekend’s final matchday of the EFL Championship regular season. There are five teams in contention for the two open playoff spots, including Haji Wright’s Coventry City and Aidan Morris’ Middlesbrough. The Americans will collide in a crucial match between the two sides Saturday morning.
• Bayern Munich’s women’s team, which secured the Bundesliga title this past weekend, completed its domestic double after beating Werder Bremen 4-2 in the German Cup final. It’s a nice way to go out for Head Coach Alexander Straus, who is set to become Angel City FC’s head coach in June.
• Barcelona defender Jules Kounde could miss time due to a hamstring injury, which would make things difficult for Barcelona in the La Liga title race and Tuesday’s Champions League semifinal.

That’s all I have for you this time around. I hope you all have a fantastic Friday and rest of your weekend. Go Orlando!

There is no specific reason for why we use a base-10 number system, perhaps because most of us have 10 fingers that can easily be used for counting, but it is clear from many examples in all walks of life that people like to use nice round numbers whenever possible, and in particular like to use multiples of 10 for convenience. Top 10 lists or rankings abound, and often we hear about the performance during the last 10 events. As a mathematician, I like using 10 as a denominator, because it is simple to create a percentage out of 10 and most people can easily understand the significance of a high or low percentage when making an argument.

Significance is a loaded word in mathematics, as is power, as both have specific definitions as it relates to statistics (ask your nerd friends, or ask me, also a nerd, in the comments), but for this case, we are going to use the English major definitions of significance and power and take a look at Orlando City’s results during the team’s first 10 MLS regular-season games to see what the numbers might tell us about what we can expect during the rest of the season.

Below is a table of Orlando City’s points earned per game through games 1-10 during each of the club’s MLS seasons, with 2020 excluded due to the difference in that season due to COVID-19.

Looking at these comparisons, for the most part, the performance during the first 10 games seems to have little bearing on the results during the rest of the season. These are not even splits. The MLS regular season is 34 games long, so the third column is 24 games’ worth of data while the second column is only 10, but even though the games played totals are different between the columns, we see vastly different performance in the time periods. Hot early starts lead to cold periods later, or vice versa, and in seven of nine seasons, the difference in points per game between the first 10 games and the final 24 was at least 0.29. For context, a drop of 0.29 points per game this season would take Orlando City from eighth to 19th in the overall table, and an increase of 0.29 would move the Lion into fourth.

The sample size of this data is pretty small at just nine seasons, and the reality of sports is that despite the romanticism of teams from the past and how some teams allegedly have winning DNA while others are cursed by teams of yore, the performance of (for example) the 2018 Orlando City team has no bearing on how the 2025 team will perform, since there are no players still with this year’s team from that team and the coaching staff has changed as well. And thank goodness, because in 2018 it was all caps UGLY down the stretch — only two wins in the final 24 games and the Lions were outscored 58-23 in those 24 games. Yuck.

While 2018 thankfully has no bearing on today’s Orlando City, the 2024 team’s performance does have some impact. Many of the key players on this year’s team were also on the team last year, and with the same head coach in place, the team is playing a similar style as it did last season. There are differences in personnel and style though, and even among the players who are back some have improved and some have declined. Additionally, during the opening 10 games of the 2024 season, Orlando City was also playing in the Concacaf Champions Cup, whereas in 2025 the Lions have had a steady one-game-per-week pace since the season opener.

While I would like to see the type of improvement in 2025 that we saw from the Lions in 2023 and 2024, I have some concerns about the fact that based on their opponents’ average points earned per game, the Lions have had the easiest schedule thus far this season and the hardest remaining schedule left. The Lions have played teams that average earning 1.13 points per game so far, and haven’t yet played teams that average earning 1.52 points per game. In particular, Orlando City still has to go to Charlotte, Cincinnati, Columbus, and Miami — all of which average at least 1.90 points per game, and all of those teams and Vancouver (2.30, best in MLS) will come to Inter&Co Stadium before the end of the season.

That is nine games remaining against the teams in first, second, third, fourth, and fifth in MLS, and no other team has a harder set of nine games remaining. That said, even though it may not feel like it due to the recent run of draws, after 10 games, Orlando City is actually tied for eighth overall in MLS in points per game and is fourth overall in goal differential (+6). This early in the season, it also means there are a lot of quirks in the schedule that will be less impactful over time, such as the fact that 40% of Orlando City’s games have been against the New York Red Bulls and Philadelphia Union.

Óscar Pareja’s Orlando City teams have always played solid soccer during games 11-34, and although some seasons did see a slight decline from the performance during games 1-10, it was never a decline down to the level of a team that frequently loses. This year’s team is a strong team with a defense that is gelling already (436 minutes and counting without giving up a goal) and an offense that is one of the most prolific in MLS, even while dealing with a lot of injuries.

I am a little concerned about having dropped points against some teams off to cold starts and also with the difficulty of the remaining schedule, but I think those teams are concerned about having to play Orlando City too. And they should be, because the Lions do not have any glaring weaknesses and, if anything, have actually underperformed, as will happen when you receive two red cards and are forced to play with 10 players in eminently winnable games.

That brings us back to 10, and while I do not give the start to this season a 10 in the style of Billy Bob from Varsity Blues, I do think Orlando City has performed well and is definitely one of the better teams in the league. I do not think that the club’s historical performance in games 11-34 will play any role in where this club finishes, but I think the talent and depth the Lions have already shown will, and I am holding to my prediction from the preseason that this is a top 10 team.