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Predicting Orlando City’s April Results

Let’s peek into the crystal ball and take a crack at predicting Orlando City’s games during the month of April.

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

Every Major League Soccer schedule has its peaks and valleys, and Orlando City is currently traversing one of the valleys. After a fast and furious start to the year that saw the Lions competing in both the Concacaf Champions Cup and MLS play, OCSC won’t play another game until next Saturday, April 13. Since we’ve got a bit of time on our hands, I wanted to take a crack at predicting the outcomes of the three games that Orlando will play during the month of April. Away we go.

Saturday, April 13 — at D.C. United

The first game back following a two-week break sees the Lions travel to the nation’s capital to take on D.C. United. D.C. has been quite the bogey team for Orlando the last two seasons, frequently getting the better of the Lions despite being one of the league’s worst teams during that time. At the time of this writing, D.C. is eighth in the East with a record of 2-1-3 (9 points). The two wins came against Montreal, which has been decent so far, and New England, which has been absolutely woeful. Christian Benteke has four goals in four games, with three of them coming in the 3-1 victory over the Revs. The Lions will be coming off two weeks to work out some of the offensive kinks we’ve seen up to this point in the season, and they should have everyone available for selection after injuries and international call-ups thinned the ranks. Now seems like as good a time as any for OCSC to turn around its recent form against DCU, and I’ll pick the Lions in this one.

Prediction: Orlando City 2-1 D.C. United.


Saturday, April 20 — at CF Montreal

After D.C., the Lions will stay on the road and take on CF Montreal north of the border in a rematch of the season opener. As previously mentioned, Montreal has had a decent start to 2024 and is currently 2-2-1 (7 points) and in 10th place. In early March the Canadian club posted back-to-back wins against FC Dallas, which has been very poor so far, and Inter Miami, which has been pretty good. Matias Coccaro leads them with three goals in five games, with an assist thrown in as well. This is Orlando nemesis Josef Martinez’s first year on the team, and he’s got a goal and two assists in 249 minutes of play. The first time the two teams played this season it was a sloppy, scoreless affair, and one in which both teams may have felt they should have been victorious. I think it’ll be a pretty evenly matched affair once again, albeit one that’s higher scoring.

Prediction: Orlando City 2-2 CF Montreal.


Saturday, April 27 — vs. Toronto FC

OCSC rounds off the month of April with a visit from Toronto FC. Thus far, Toronto has been much improved from a woeful 2023 season, and is currently an aesthetically pleasing 3-2-1, (10 points) and sitting in fifth. The three wins have come against Atlanta United, which has been good, Charlotte FC which has been decent, and New England, which — as previously mentioned — has been quite bad. The Reds dropped games to New York City FC and Sporting Kansas City, and the prevailing theme in their matches this year has been struggling to put the ball in the back of the net. TFC has only scored multiple goals once, in its 2-0 win over Atlanta, and its six goals on the year is just one better than Orlando City’s tally of five. The team also has a lengthy injury list, and Lorenzo Insigne may not be available due to a hamstring injury. I think playing at home helps see the Lions through in this one, as the boys find their shooting boots.

Prediction: Orlando City 3-1 Toronto FC.


If things go as I predicted, Orlando will take seven points from an available nine, which would be a welcome sight after a sputtering start to 2024. Much of my predictions are based on the belief that this is a good team with good players, which simply needs a bit of time to integrate new faces and new ideas, and will start playing more in line with preseason expectations once it’s had time to do so. If chemistry is still slow to form after the two-week layoff, then the month of April could be a very different story, but for now I’m choosing the path of optimism. Vamos Orlando!

Opinion

Martin Ojeda Can Further Build on an Improved 2024

Martin Ojeda has picked things up after a slow start to the season, but he has room to play even better.

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Dan MacDonald, The Mane Land

Argentinian attacking midfielder Martin Ojeda finished his maiden season in an Orlando City uniform with six goals and 10 assists. While 16 goal contributions in his first year in a new league with unfamiliar surroundings isn’t a terrible return, there was a widespread sense that he didn’t perform at the level the Lions needed from a Designated Player. He improved the deeper Orlando got into the year though, and coming into the 2024 season, a lot of the projections involving OCSC being one of the best teams in the league were predicated on him taking the next step and becoming a true force in Major League Soccer. So, has that happened?

The broad numbers say that it hasn’t. Through 27 appearances and 1,582 minutes, Ojeda has three goals and eight assists, compared to six goals and 10 assists in 34 appearances and 1,751 minutes in 2023. The Argentine still has time to eclipse his totals from last year, but barring a positively explosive run of form, it’ll take him more minutes to do so. For my money, it isn’t quite that simple though.

For one thing, Ojeda has shown improvement in two key areas: passing accuracy and key passes. His accuracy is up to 84% in 2024, while it was 79% last season. He’s also already eclipsed his total for key passes in 2023, currently sitting on 45, compared to the 42 he finished with in his debut season in purple. That suggests that not only is he passing the ball better, but he’s also putting it in more dangerous areas than previously. Some of that is to be expected, considering his shift into the center of the field to play the no. 10, but he’s still had to adapt to the new position, and he’s looked more and more comfortable as the year has continued.

Let’s talk about that positional change a little. The first few months of the season were ugly for just about everyone wearing an Orlando City jersey. Guys were hurt, off on international duty, or suspended, and many of the ones who could play were forced to do so in positions that weren’t natural for them. At various points throughout the early months of 2024, he found himself playing in the hole behind two strikers, as a deep-lying playmaker, deputizing at striker himself, or dropped from the starting XI entirely.

It was hard to argue with him coming off the bench, as he had just three assists in the 16 games prior to the LAFC match on June 15. He got his first league goal of the year in that match though, and in the 11 games since then, he’s recorded two goals and four assists. While not a staggering return, he’s trending in the right direction. Outside of the numbers, he looks capable of being able to produce at a higher level.

Saturday’s match against Nashville SC provided two specific instances which I found encouraging. The first was his assist on Ivan Angulo’s opening goal, specifically the way in which Ojeda created the goal.

Everything about that is fantastic. The anticipation and work rate to get into a position to intercept the wayward pass, the vision to see Angulo’s position, the quick decision to play the one-touch pass, and the execution to deliver that pass squarely on the money. One of the knocks on Ojeda in an OCSC shirt has been his decision making and execution in the final third, as at times he’s settled for long potshots or held onto the ball too long before trying to find a teammate. None of that was on display here, and the speed of thought, coupled with the execution, meant that Orlando grabbed an early lead.

Let’s then talk about the turn he executed at midfield during the buildup to Facundo Torres’ first goal. Ojeda receives the ball, takes a touch, neatly slips it through a defender’s legs, and then immediately drives hard at the Nashville defense before releasing the ball and finding Torres in space. It’s one moment of skill, but it’s something that happens when you have a guy who’s playing with confidence, and the fact that he then made the right pass at the right time makes it even better.

Those are the moments that we’ve started to see more of from the Designated Player as the year has gone on, and we’ll need to continue seeing more of if Orlando City wants to keep pushing up the table.

Ojeda has a chance to improve on his debut season and really make an impact for the Lions down the stretch. If he keeps playing with confidence, making the correct decisions, and executing in the way that he’s shown this summer, it should bode well for OCSC. Vamos Orlando!

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Opinion

Potential Orlando City Lineup Changes for Nashville SC

What player changes can Orlando City make to get back on the winning track?

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC

Once Oscar Pareja finds a lineup he likes, he tends to stick with it. This is not necessarily a bad thing when the team is playing well and earning points. It can be if he is slow to make changes when things start to not be so good and the team is dropping points, like in the match against Sporting Kansas City.

I think it’s time to shake some things up. Here are my recommendations.

Left Back Luca

Luca Petrasso has been killing it with Orlando City B as of late. He’s also looked pretty good in the limited time with the senior squad. This is a player with a first-team contract who went on loan to Triestina for six months, has gotten quality minutes with OCB, and should now be given a chance to start at left back. 

It might sound a little crazy, but neither Rafael Santos nor Kyle Smith has played very well recently when they have gotten the start. A change is needed, and giving Petrasso a start is a good way to reward his play both with OCB and with the few minutes he’s managed with the first team. Honestly, I’m not sure it would be much worse than what Santos and Smith have provided in recent games, so Pareja might as well give it a go.

Midfield Move

Let me first say that I’m talking about the attacking midfield. Defensive midfielders Wilder Cartagena and Cesar Araujo are a bright spot on a team that has struggled recently. I’m talking about shaking things up a little higher up the pitch. 

Given that Martin Ojeda, Facundo Torres, and Ivan Angulo have all been starting recently, that only leaves Nico Lodeiro to bring on for one of those three. I don’t see Pareja sitting Torres, so let’s take that off the table. If he were to sit Angulo, then that would likely mean moving Torres to the left side. We all know that Torres prefers the right side so he can cut across the defense and put the ball on goal with his favored left foot. You also lose Angulo’s speed, and I don’t expect Angulo to have another match like he did against Kansas City.

That leaves Ojeda out. I’m not saying he’s been worse than the other two, but from a tactical perspective it makes the most sense for Lodeiro to replace Ojeda. That allows the other two to stay in their preferred spots, and for Ojeda to come on around the 60th minute with fresh legs. Lodeiro has enough in the tank to do it, and some sort of change is needed to get the attack going again.

Orlando Runs on Duncan

Ramiro Enrique went on a goal-scoring tear up until two matches ago. Because of Enrique’s form, even after Duncan McGuire signed his new contract, the Argentine got the next two starts. The first of those against Cruz Azul on Aug. 9 was no big deal. Nobody scored in that one. Then there was a two-week break before Saturday’s 24 match against Sporting Kansas City. Still no goal for the young striker, and even worse, he started putting the ball out or right at the keeping in both of those matches. 

Now, it’s time to put Big Dunc back in the starting lineup. He has his new contract, and giving him the start with something to prove after subbing in these last few matches could spark the Orlando City attack once more. Additionally, there is a reason he got the new deal. He knows how to score goals, and sometimes you just need to get out there to make it happen. The added benefit is that Enrique will be motivated to win back that starting spot when he’s coming off the bench.


That’s what I’d like to see this Saturday night from Orlando City. Let me know your thoughts in the comments below.

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Opinion

Predicting Orlando City’s Remaining August Matches

Let’s peek into the crystal ball and predict Orlando City’s last two matches in August.

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

With a bit off time off until Orlando City’s next match, there’s no time like the present to peek ahead in the calendar and make some guesses as to how the rest of August will treat the Lions. OCSC will only play two more matches before the month ends, as the team got a couple weeks off after being eliminated from Leagues Cup.

Saturday, Aug. 24 at Sporting Kansas City

The first game following the break comes on the road against Sporting Kansas City. SKC’s last game was on Friday, Aug. 9, the same as Orlando, and the club was soundly beaten 4-0 on the road by the Columbus Crew in the Leagues Cup Round of 32. In the league, Sporting has compiled a record of 6-14-6, and currently sits in 12th place in the West on 24 points. Scoring goals hasn’t been an issue, as 41 in 26 games is a perfectly respectable rate, but the bigger issue has been keeping the ball out of their own net. Sporting has given up a whopping 52 tallies on the season, and only a woeful San Jose Earthquakes side — that’s in real danger of conceding a historic number of times — has given up more. Willy Agada has quietly put together a nice season with nine goals and two assists in just 1,266 minutes, but I like the Lions’ chances here.

Orlando City is on an eight-game unbeaten streak in all competitions, and only a sudden bout of lackluster finishing prevented the good guys from getting a win against Cruz Azul in the game that eliminated OCSC from Leagues Cup. Plus, Kansas City also has a U.S. Open Cup semifinal on Tuesday, Aug. 27 to think about. The playoffs aren’t quite out of reach yet, but the USOC represents SKC’s best chance for a trophy this year, and it wouldn’t surprise me if the club prioritizes it. I think the finishing touch comes back, the defense continues the improved play its shown during this run, and Orlando gets it done on the road.

Prediction: Orlando City 2-1 Sporting Kansas City.

Saturday, Aug. 31 vs. Nashville SC

For the final match of the month, Orlando City has a home game against Nashville SC, one of the teams it took down during the current unbeaten run. Nashville was last in action back on Aug. 6, when a penalty shootout loss against the New England Revolution bounced the team from Leagues Cup in the group stage. Pending next week’s match against Austin FC, Nashville may come into next week’s clash in Orlando not having won a game since a 1-0 result at home against NYCFC all the way back on June 22. The Tennessee side has a record of 6-11-8 and is 12th in the East on 26 points. The defense has been fairly solid, with 39 goals given up through 25 games. The attack has been a different story though, with the 26 goals scored just barely tipping the team over a goal-a-game average. Sam Surridge has scored almost a quarter of the team’s goals with eight in 19 games, so if the Lions can bottle him up they should have a decent chance of keeping the visitors off the board.

Once again, I think this is a game that Orlando City should win. Both teams will have had a game to get back into a competitive rhythm, but the Lions have looked much better than Nashville in recent outings, and picked up a pretty comfortable win on the road the last time the two teams squared off. Orlando’s defense has picked up its play after an uncharacteristically shaky start to the year, and Nashville has struggled to score goals all season. On paper, the schedule is set up for OCSC to have a strong finish to the season, and I expect the good guys to take care of business here.

Prediction: Orlando City 3-0 Nashville SC.


Those are my guesses for Orlando’s two remaining matches in August. Do you think I got it right, or do you see these matches going a different way? Be sure to have your say down in the comments. Vamos Orlando!

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