Opinion
Predicting Orlando City’s May Results
Take a peek into the crystal ball as we predict this month’s fixtures.
After earning four points in the month of April across three matches with a 1-1-1 record, Orlando City looks to calm the storm and gain meaningful results against several squads above them on the table and a few of the Eastern Conference’s best. The Lions will play six matches in the month of May, and before action kicks off later tonight at home against FC Cincinnati, I wanted to put my psychic abilities to the test to try to predict the teams results over a very full month.
Saturday, May 4 — vs. FC Cincinnati
The most important part of a bad loss is not allowing it to beat you twice and that is exactly what the Lions will look to avoid as they attempt to shake off the gut-wrenching, last-minute loss to Toronto FC from the end of April when they host FC Cincinnati. Last year’s Supporters’ Shield winners are riding a two-game winning streak into the match after dispatching the Colorado Rapids 2-1 in their most recent outing. Cincinnati is a different squad than the one that won the shield a year ago, with USMNT striker Brandon Vazquez playing in Mexico and acquisitions like Miles Robinson and DeAndre Yedlin joining the squad this year. Luckily, Orlando’s offense has awakened and in the month of April the Lions scored multiple goals in two out of their three matches. Cincinnati will be without the services of Aaron Boupendza due to a broken jaw and I like this match to be high scoring but level.
Prediction: Orlando City 2-2 FC Cincinnati.
Saturday, May 11 — at Philadelphia Union
The Union have found themselves in a bit of a post-Concacaf Champions Cup haze, much like Orlando has, with only four points separating the squads through nine matches. Subaru Park, a previously impossible site to win at for road teams, was finally cracked by Orlando City last year, and the Union have already lost in front of their home crowd once this year, thanks to Real Salt Lake. The first road test of the month for the Lions will test the team’s ability to play in a hostile environment and a win could go a long way towards the climb up the table. Orlando will still have to deal with Andre Blake, Jack Elliot, and Daniel Gazdag, but this version of the Union feels slightly less menacing than in years past.
Prediction: Orlando City 2-1 Philadelphia Union.
Wednesday, May 15 — vs. Inter Miami
Lionel Messi and friends on a short week after an away match…it feels like the schedulers are just doing this on purpose at this point, doesn’t it? Orlando will look to avenge its worst outing of the year to date, a 5-0 drubbing that happened in South Florida back on March 2. The key to this match will be managing emotions, as the Lions have shown in the past that they have the right players in place to frustrate Messi, but they also can get caught up in the moment. This one could be a coin flip, as both sides could potentially see heavy rotation and Miami continues to deal with several injuries to its supporting cast. Nonetheless, I think Orlando flips the script in this one and the match against the boys in pink becomes a turning point for the entire season.
Prediction: Orlando City 2-0 Inter Miami.
Saturday, May 18 — at San Jose Earthquakes
San Jose has had an abysmal start to their year and is currently tied with the New England Revolution for Wooden Spoon darlings, sitting on four points. Still, this will be Orlando’s third match in eight days, a task the team has not had to deal with since balancing both Concacaf and the MLS regular season in March. This feels like the trap game on the schedule to me, coming off of a tough midweek match against intrastate rivals and with the high-scoring juggernauts known as the Columbus Crew coming up the week after. I expect Oscar Pareja to rotate the squad for this one to try to save some miles on the legs, and that will ultimately be the team’s undoing as it has to salvage a draw late against the Quakes.
Prediction: Orlando City 1-1 San Jose Earthquakes.
Saturday, May 25 — vs. Columbus Crew
The Columbus Crew will face off against the Lions in their first matchup of the season late in the month. The reigning MLS Cup holders have been on a heater in both MLS regular-season play and in the Concacaf Champions Cup, and they are now set to face CF Pachuca on June 1 in the final match of the tournament. The timing of that match one week after this could create some interesting storylines, as the Crew — also have a midweek fixture on May 29 — look to stay fresh. As an Orlando fan, I wouldn’t hold my breath, hoping for some obscure names in the starting 11. The Crew are capable of hurting teams in a myriad of ways, and even with a week’s rest and training back in Orlando, I think the squad that knocked OCSC out of the 2023 MLS playoffs will again find a road victory as the Crew look to tune up for their championship final.
Prediction: Orlando City 0-2 Columbus Crew.
Wednesday, May 29 — vs. Chicago Fire FC
The whirlwind month ends in the Windy City, as Orlando travels to Chicago for a midweek fixture to close out the month. Chicago has had an up-and-down start to the season, much like Orlando has, and the Fire currently sit just one point ahead of the Lions on the table. Orlando took both meetings in 2023 by 3-1 final scores. I think after five other matches in the month, chemistry issues should be a thing of the past, and while road points always come as a premium in MLS, I think Orlando will keep its streak against the Fire alive by jumping on top early and then coasting to a win.
Prediction: Orlando City 3-0 Chicago Fire FC.
If things go as I have now spoken them into existence, Orlando will earn 11 points in the month of May. The month will also finish with Orlando closer to the playoff line but still on the outside looking in. My predictions are based on historical results that the squad has put in against these teams, schedule congestion of both the Lions and their opponents, and finally, the true belief that this team has the tools necessary to earn victories at the end of the day. Check back at the end of the month to see just how close I came to predicating the correct results. Vamos Orlando!
Orlando City has enjoyed a great run of form over a significant amount of its summertime fixtures, but as October quickly approaches, only a handful of matches remain on the schedule to pick up points and score goals. The Lions have been paced by their two stars in Designated Player Facundo Torres and USMNT Olympian Duncan McGuire. Currently, through 29 matches, Torres leads Orlando City with 12 goals and McGuire is right on his heels with nine. Let’s take a look at the underlying numbers to try to predict who will ultimately finish the Major League Soccer regular season as the top goal scorer for OCSC.
Facundo Torres
At this point in his Orlando City career, everyone should just accept the fact that Torres starts to heat up right about the same time as the Central Florida temperatures. Three years running and the DP has consistently started slowly before roaring to life over the summer months of the season. The 2024 campaign is no different, as it took Torres six MLS regular-season matches to score his first goal of the year and then another seven games before finding the back of the net for goal number two. After almost half the season (15 matches) Torres stood firm on those two goals and, coincidentally, his team’s position in the standings reflected his sluggish start.
Torres finally started to turn things around on June 19 against Charlotte FC and found the back of the net six times before the Leagues Cup interrupted the regular season near the end of July.
Since returning to action after the Leagues Cup, Torres has bagged an additional four goals and currently sits just two goals shy of his career high, which was set during the 2023 campaign. Facu has netted 12 throughout the regular season across 27 matches and 2,216 game minutes played. He has logged 54 total scoring attempts and has placed 25 of those attempts on target for a shooting percentage of 46.3%.
Duncan McGuire
So much has been made about McGuire’s off-season transfer drama that it might as well just be turned into its own telenovela at this point. Despite all of the drama and back and forth, McGuire has continued to work and has been nothing short of a consummate pro for both his club and country. McGuire scored his first and second of the year in a 3-2 loss to Minnesota United FC back on March 9, and throughout the first half of the season, he did well to find the back of the net fairly frequently, scoring about once every other game between March 30 and May 15. Time away representing the United States certainly played a role in McGuire finding himself as second on the goal-scoring list instead of leading it for Orlando City, as prior to the Sept. 14 match against the New England Revolution, McGuire’s last goal came all the way back on June 28 against New York City FC.
McGuire sits four goals behind the 13 that he scored in his rookie campaign as he has contributed nine through 23 matches and 1,465 game minutes. He has logged 35 total scoring attempts and has placed 15 of those attempts on target for a shooting percentage of 42.9%.
Projecting Orlando’s Top Scorer
If the current starting lineup holds true over the final five matches of the year, I have a hard time projecting that McGuire could be able to catch and then surpass Torres, even though he is only three goals behind. McGuire has operated out of a super substitute role since rejoining the squad from the Olympics, and if that role continues, then he will have far less time on the field compared to Torres to find the back of the net.
McGuire has done his best over the last two matches, scoring in each game quickly after entering, but at this point, he is unlikely to crack the starting lineup again before the end of the year. Not to mention that in the last two matches when McGuire has scored, Torres had already found the back of the net, keeping the striker at the same deficit despite McGuire’s efforts.
Torres is also the go-to penalty kick taker for the team and has converted two of his three attempts on the year, giving him the ability to pad his numbers from the spot should an opportunity arise over the last stretch of matches. Falling back to the numbers, Torres’ shooting percentage is few ticks better than McGuire’s and should allow him a slightly higher statistical chance to find the goal more times before the end of the season than his second-year counterpart.
I think they both should just keep scoring with reckless abandon…what a great problem to have! Do you think McGuire will catch Torres? Let us know in the comments below and as always, Vamos Orlando!
Opinion
Martin Ojeda Can Further Build on an Improved 2024
Martin Ojeda has picked things up after a slow start to the season, but he has room to play even better.
Argentinian attacking midfielder Martin Ojeda finished his maiden season in an Orlando City uniform with six goals and 10 assists. While 16 goal contributions in his first year in a new league with unfamiliar surroundings isn’t a terrible return, there was a widespread sense that he didn’t perform at the level the Lions needed from a Designated Player. He improved the deeper Orlando got into the year though, and coming into the 2024 season, a lot of the projections involving OCSC being one of the best teams in the league were predicated on him taking the next step and becoming a true force in Major League Soccer. So, has that happened?
The broad numbers say that it hasn’t. Through 27 appearances and 1,582 minutes, Ojeda has three goals and eight assists, compared to six goals and 10 assists in 34 appearances and 1,751 minutes in 2023. The Argentine still has time to eclipse his totals from last year, but barring a positively explosive run of form, it’ll take him more minutes to do so. For my money, it isn’t quite that simple though.
For one thing, Ojeda has shown improvement in two key areas: passing accuracy and key passes. His accuracy is up to 84% in 2024, while it was 79% last season. He’s also already eclipsed his total for key passes in 2023, currently sitting on 45, compared to the 42 he finished with in his debut season in purple. That suggests that not only is he passing the ball better, but he’s also putting it in more dangerous areas than previously. Some of that is to be expected, considering his shift into the center of the field to play the no. 10, but he’s still had to adapt to the new position, and he’s looked more and more comfortable as the year has continued.
Let’s talk about that positional change a little. The first few months of the season were ugly for just about everyone wearing an Orlando City jersey. Guys were hurt, off on international duty, or suspended, and many of the ones who could play were forced to do so in positions that weren’t natural for them. At various points throughout the early months of 2024, he found himself playing in the hole behind two strikers, as a deep-lying playmaker, deputizing at striker himself, or dropped from the starting XI entirely.
It was hard to argue with him coming off the bench, as he had just three assists in the 16 games prior to the LAFC match on June 15. He got his first league goal of the year in that match though, and in the 11 games since then, he’s recorded two goals and four assists. While not a staggering return, he’s trending in the right direction. Outside of the numbers, he looks capable of being able to produce at a higher level.
Saturday’s match against Nashville SC provided two specific instances which I found encouraging. The first was his assist on Ivan Angulo’s opening goal, specifically the way in which Ojeda created the goal.
Everything about that is fantastic. The anticipation and work rate to get into a position to intercept the wayward pass, the vision to see Angulo’s position, the quick decision to play the one-touch pass, and the execution to deliver that pass squarely on the money. One of the knocks on Ojeda in an OCSC shirt has been his decision making and execution in the final third, as at times he’s settled for long potshots or held onto the ball too long before trying to find a teammate. None of that was on display here, and the speed of thought, coupled with the execution, meant that Orlando grabbed an early lead.
Let’s then talk about the turn he executed at midfield during the buildup to Facundo Torres’ first goal. Ojeda receives the ball, takes a touch, neatly slips it through a defender’s legs, and then immediately drives hard at the Nashville defense before releasing the ball and finding Torres in space. It’s one moment of skill, but it’s something that happens when you have a guy who’s playing with confidence, and the fact that he then made the right pass at the right time makes it even better.
Those are the moments that we’ve started to see more of from the Designated Player as the year has gone on, and we’ll need to continue seeing more of if Orlando City wants to keep pushing up the table.
Ojeda has a chance to improve on his debut season and really make an impact for the Lions down the stretch. If he keeps playing with confidence, making the correct decisions, and executing in the way that he’s shown this summer, it should bode well for OCSC. Vamos Orlando!
Opinion
Potential Orlando City Lineup Changes for Nashville SC
What player changes can Orlando City make to get back on the winning track?
Once Oscar Pareja finds a lineup he likes, he tends to stick with it. This is not necessarily a bad thing when the team is playing well and earning points. It can be if he is slow to make changes when things start to not be so good and the team is dropping points, like in the match against Sporting Kansas City.
I think it’s time to shake some things up. Here are my recommendations.
Left Back Luca
Luca Petrasso has been killing it with Orlando City B as of late. He’s also looked pretty good in the limited time with the senior squad. This is a player with a first-team contract who went on loan to Triestina for six months, has gotten quality minutes with OCB, and should now be given a chance to start at left back.
It might sound a little crazy, but neither Rafael Santos nor Kyle Smith has played very well recently when they have gotten the start. A change is needed, and giving Petrasso a start is a good way to reward his play both with OCB and with the few minutes he’s managed with the first team. Honestly, I’m not sure it would be much worse than what Santos and Smith have provided in recent games, so Pareja might as well give it a go.
Midfield Move
Let me first say that I’m talking about the attacking midfield. Defensive midfielders Wilder Cartagena and Cesar Araujo are a bright spot on a team that has struggled recently. I’m talking about shaking things up a little higher up the pitch.
Given that Martin Ojeda, Facundo Torres, and Ivan Angulo have all been starting recently, that only leaves Nico Lodeiro to bring on for one of those three. I don’t see Pareja sitting Torres, so let’s take that off the table. If he were to sit Angulo, then that would likely mean moving Torres to the left side. We all know that Torres prefers the right side so he can cut across the defense and put the ball on goal with his favored left foot. You also lose Angulo’s speed, and I don’t expect Angulo to have another match like he did against Kansas City.
That leaves Ojeda out. I’m not saying he’s been worse than the other two, but from a tactical perspective it makes the most sense for Lodeiro to replace Ojeda. That allows the other two to stay in their preferred spots, and for Ojeda to come on around the 60th minute with fresh legs. Lodeiro has enough in the tank to do it, and some sort of change is needed to get the attack going again.
Orlando Runs on Duncan
Ramiro Enrique went on a goal-scoring tear up until two matches ago. Because of Enrique’s form, even after Duncan McGuire signed his new contract, the Argentine got the next two starts. The first of those against Cruz Azul on Aug. 9 was no big deal. Nobody scored in that one. Then there was a two-week break before Saturday’s 24 match against Sporting Kansas City. Still no goal for the young striker, and even worse, he started putting the ball out or right at the keeping in both of those matches.
Now, it’s time to put Big Dunc back in the starting lineup. He has his new contract, and giving him the start with something to prove after subbing in these last few matches could spark the Orlando City attack once more. Additionally, there is a reason he got the new deal. He knows how to score goals, and sometimes you just need to get out there to make it happen. The added benefit is that Enrique will be motivated to win back that starting spot when he’s coming off the bench.
That’s what I’d like to see this Saturday night from Orlando City. Let me know your thoughts in the comments below.
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