Orlando City has now used a 3-5-2 or 3-4-1-2 formation in its last six matches. The switch has been necessitated by a combination of injuries and suspensions to the team’s fullbacks and center backs, and I spent some time examining the first two games using the 3-5-2 several weeks ago. In that piece, I noted that the Lions looked better defensively when operating with three at the back, and had also done a decent job of creating chances, albeit in a small sample size. Now that we’ve got more minutes to examine, a picture is beginning to form of a team that still looks fairly solid defensively, but is struggling mightily at the other end of the pitch.

In the six games in which the team used a 3-5-2, Orlando recorded Expected Goals of 1.25, 0.72, 1.99, 1.29, 0.82, and 0.42, for an average of 1.08. That’s not great, as only three teams in the league have lower numbers: the New England Revolution (1.02), FC Dallas (0.99), and Sporting Kansas City (0.99). For those of you keeping track at home, the Revs are bottom of the East, SKC is bottom of the West, and FC Dallas is only two spots above Sporting. While the sample size isn’t as big as those other teams, the numbers are suggesting that this isn’t sustainable.

Expected Goals aren’t the holy grail of soccer statistics, but they generally provide a good metric of how well a team is attacking, but the eye test is perfectly useful in telling us that Orlando City mostly hasn’t been an attacking force across its last six matches.

Three at the back has worked pretty well from a defensive standpoint, as the Lions’ opponents have had xG numbers of 3.85 (2 actual goals), 0.61 (no goals), 0.62 (no goals), 2.19 (2 goals), 1.00 (1 goal), and 0.79 (1 goal), for an average of 1.51.

That number could certainly be better, as it would tie for seventh-highest in the league, although it’s worth mentioning that the three penalty kicks given up against the Philadelphia Union and Columbus Crew do unfairly skew that total, as each one is worth 0.79 xG. If we remove those and focus on open play, the number drops to 1.12, which would actually be the lowest in the league. To be clear, I’m not suggesting the Lions are actually that good defensively, but I do think it’s fair to say that they’ve mostly done well when defending during open play over the last six matches.

Whatever solution we come up with needs to involve a retention of the defensive improvements that the team has shown over the last six matches, while also helping the Lions become more potent offensively. With that being the case, I’m not opposed to keeping a three-man back line, but making a slight tweak to a 3-4-3 formation in order to unlock the team’s offensive potential. With all players healthy and suspension-free, we could see Pedro Gallese in goal, Robin Jansson, Wilder Cartagena, and David Brekalo on the back line, a midfield of Rafael Santos, Cesar Araujo, Nico Lodeiro, and Dagur Dan Thorhallsson, and a front three of Luis Muriel, Duncan McGuire, and Facundo Torres.

One of the biggest drawbacks of a 3-5-2, and something I noted in Player Grades pieces for the games against Philadelphia, Inter Miami, and the Chicago Fire, is that it burdens Facundo Torres with far too many defensive responsibilities. While availability issues meant there wasn’t much choice other than to play him as a wingback, if the team has a clean bill of health, you need the guy who’s been your best offensive player for the last two seasons to be put in the best possible position to succeed. Simply put, that does not involve him consistently defending at or below his own 18-yard box. A 3-4-3 shifts that defensive responsibility to Thorhallson/Santos, while allowing Torres to operate higher up the pitch, where he does his best work.

It also gets Muriel and McGuire on the field at the same time, as they’ve looked capable of forming a nice partnership when they’ve been healthy, rested, and sharing the field. They can play off each other and shift which one is playing through the middle to give the opposing team some different looks throughout the game.

As for the midfield, I have Nico starting, given the type of creative force he’s capable of being, and he’s also looked to have some good budding chemistry with Muriel. With that being the case, he can be swapped for Ivan Angulo or Felipe if Oscar Pareja wants to line his team up more defensively, and the Colombian speedster can also rotate in at winger or wingback as needed.

I’ve kept Cartagena in the middle center back spot for a couple reasons. For one, I don’t think a central midfield pairing of Wilder and Cesar has enough creative punch in a 3-4-3, and Nico should solve that problem. In addition, Cartagena’s shown well enough as the middle center back to keep running him out there, and that also means that you aren’t starting all three experienced, traditional center backs every game and thereby putting all your eggs in one basket.

For substitutions and rotations, Jack Lynn, Ramiro Enrique, and Martin Ojeda can come in at various positions across the front line, Angulo at midfield, winger, or wingback as previously mentioned, Felipe at midfielder, Kyle Smith at wingback or center back, and Rodrigo Schlegel at center back.

In theory, a 3-4-3 formation maintains the defensive stability OCSC has shown with a three-man defense, while putting enough dangerous offensive players on the field in their best positions to help juice things at the other end of the pitch. Whether or not it would actually work out that way is anyone’s guess, but what the Lions have been doing lately hasn’t worked out particularly well, so I think it’s worth a shot.

After earning eight points in the month of May across six matches with a 2-2-2 record, Orlando City has a large mountain still to climb in the quest to re-enter the playoff picture. With four of the five teams that the Lions are set to face in June currently ahead of them in the standings, there is no rest for the weary. Last month I predicted that the Lions would go 3-1-2, maybe a bit overzealous on my part but if the midweek fixture with Chicago would have resulted in all 3 points, then I would have been pretty happy with my psychic powers. Let’s see how well I can do for the month of June.

Saturday, June 1 — at the New York Red Bulls

A trip to face the Red Bulls on short rest and without at least the services of Captain Robin Jansson, who will miss the match due to yellow card accumulation, sounds on paper like a recipe for disaster. The good news for Orlando is that the game is played on the field and not on a notepad. The New York Red Bulls have been a surprising storyline to follow this season so far, with the resurgence of Lewis Morgan and their unbeaten record at home to start the season. In the first meeting, Orlando City needed late-match heroics to salvage a draw at home, and with an offense that is as currently anemic as Orlando’s, this will be the match where they score early, take the lead, and then hold on for dear life. Something about this squad currently just screams it will win the match it certainly has no business winning.

Prediction: Orlando City 3-2 NYRB.

Saturday, June 15 — vs. LAFC

LAFC is certainly counting down the days until later in the summer when Olivier Giroud joins from AC Milan. Initially struggling out of the gates this season, LAFC has turned its season around in a big way. LAFC is currently riding a six-game winning streak across all competitions, with its last defeat coming back on May 4 against the San Jose Earthquakes. During those six victories, LAFC has scored multiple goals in all but one match, and so I assume that goals will come fast and furious in this East vs. West matchup. Despite Orlando’s struggles, I like this match to be close until the very end, when Orlando will be caught chasing the match and give up an extra goal to the visitors from the City of Angels. A tough one to swallow for sure as Orlando City’s home woes will continue.

Prediction: Orlando City 1-3 LAFC.

Wednesday, June 19 — at Charlotte FC

Orlando will head north to take on Charlotte FC for a midweek clash during the middle of yet another spell of three matches in eight days. Charlotte, much like the Red Bulls, has been somewhat of a surprise player in the Eastern Conference so far this season. Before being bested by the Red Bulls on May 29, the club had kept five clean sheets in a row, earning 11 points throughout the month of May. My favorite thing about this match is the recent news that Enzo Copetti, ever the thorn in the side of Orlando City, has now departed the Queen City. It will be at least one less weapon that Orlando will have to deal with. Despite the team’s recent form, I am not overly sold on Charlotte’s ability to stay above the playoff line, and I like Orlando City to flip the script and be the team to walk away from this match with a clean sheet.

Prediction: Orlando City 1-0 Charlotte FC.

Saturday, June 22 — vs. the Chicago Fire

Call it a rematch, revenge game…I truly don’t care as long as Orlando City avenges the disappointing draw that happened a few days ago in the Windy City. There are certainly multiple reasons as to why both teams find themselves near the bottom of the Eastern Conference, but if I had to pick one to actually figure it out heading into the meat and potatoes of the season, it would still be the Lions. Orlando has created plenty of chances at home, and while finishing those chances is another issue entirely, I like City to build some momentum towards the end of the month.

Prediction: Orlando City 2-0 Chicago Fire.

Friday, June 28 — at New York City FC

Orlando will ride that momentum directly into a baseball stadium. One of the most embarrassing fields in MLS is still allowed to be called a soccer pitch in the outfield of Yankee Stadium. Historically, teams struggle with the dimensions and space that this specific field presents, and Orlando is no stranger to those struggles, as the Lions have lost the last three matches played in the Bronx by a combined score of 9-1. History alone gives me very little hope that this current iteration of Orlando City will be the squad to finally buck the trend, and I suspect that Orlando will once again leave the outfield without much to show for its efforts.

Prediction: Orlando City 0-2 NYCFC.

The month of May went fine for Orlando. It could have been a little better. It could have been a little worse. I predict that that is exactly the way that June will go as well. As I mentioned before, there are no “easy” matches on the slate this month, and everyone except for Chicago is currently sitting on a better record than OCSC at this point in the season. If what I have predicted comes to fruition, then Orlando will earn nine points out of a possible 15 and will still be sitting just shy of the playoff line.

Check back at the end of the month to see just how close I came to predicating the correct results. Vamos Orlando!

In the last two Orlando City matches against the Philadelphia Union and Inter Miami, Oscar Pareja has deployed his team in 3-5-2, and 3-4-1-2 formations, respectively. While Papi typically prefers to set his team up in a 4-2-3-1, injuries to fullbacks Rafael Santos, Dagur Dan Thorhallsson, and Mikey Halliday have necessitated some creative problem solving. The two uses of the 3-5-2 and its slightly tweaked variant have been met with success, as the Lions have taken four points from their last two games and, as a result, there’s been some calls online for the team to persist with the formation. With that being the case, let’s do some digging into how the formation has served OCSC, and try to determine if it’s a viable option going forward.

A big thing to note with Orlando’s use of a three-man back line is the presence of Wilder Cartagena as the middle center back. It isn’t his natural position, but Rodrigo Schlegel’s suspension for the Union game meant that Pareja needed to conjure another center back from somewhere, and he elected to shift Cartagena into the back line rather than use Kyle Smith or one of Abdi Salim or Thomas Williams.

Against Philly, a normal 3-5-2 was used, with Pedro Gallese in goal, David Brekalo, Cartagena, and Robin Jansson in the back line, Ivan Angulo and Facundo Torres as wingbacks, Nico Lodeiro, Cesar Araujo, and Martin Ojeda in the midfield, and Luis Muriel and Duncan McGuire up top. The only tweaks against Miami were Schlegel replacing the injured Jansson and Ojeda pushing up to sit behind the two strikers in a 3-4-1-2 formation.

In the Union game, Orlando did a great job at pushing numbers forward quickly when it won the ball, and all three of its goals came in situations where the attack was pressed quickly when the Lions won possession. The Lions took 13 shots, with eight of them from inside the box, and totaled 1.25 expected goals (xG). The team’s best chances of the night came with McGuire’s headed opener and Muriel’s second goal, as both came from inside the box and both were converted. Against Miami, the Lions took 14 shots, with seven from inside the box, and totaled .69 xG. OCSC’s best chance came from Martin Ojeda’s 32nd-minute shot from inside the box, which was well saved by Drake Callender.

In essence, Orlando created more chances against the Union, and was more clinical about finishing those chances. However, the difference in attacking output wasn’t drastic, and we might be able to put it down to Miami being a better team than Philly and the Lions playing the Herons on short rest.

Against Philly, OCSC had a rough outing defensively. While one of the Union goals came from a penalty kick, the home team took a whopping 29 shots during the game with all but eight from outside the box, for a total of 3.85 xG. Against Miami, the Herons took seven shots with six inside the box for a total of .60 xG. Aside from Gallese stonewalling Luis Suarez just minutes into the game in a 1-v-1 chance, the defense largely did a good job of limiting chances.

Even accounting for two penalty kick attempts inflating Philadelphia’s expected goals, the Lions did a far better job at limiting dangerous chances against Miami. That could be due to the team being more comfortable with the defensive setup after using it for a game or a more cautious approach by Oscar Pareja due to Miami’s considerable firepower, even without the injured Lionel Messi.

The numbers and the eye test say that there’s enough reason to consider continuing to use the formation going forward. The Lions have shown that they can create chances and score goals, and they’ve shown that they can have a solid defensive outing, although it would be nice to demonstrate both characteristics in the same game. That, my friends, is where things start to get tricky, because persisting with the 3-5-2 or a variation of it isn’t as simple as obeying what the numbers say.

Let’s talk about Orlando’s personnel. Thorhallsson and Santos both seem to be working their way back from injury, and once healthy they could theoretically slot in at the two wingback positions, which should help Orlando avoid the defensive mess we saw against the Union. That means we need to figure out what to do with Torres and Angulo. Despite his slow start to the season, Torres is a guy you have to have on the field, and in order to do that, I propose slotting him into Ojeda’s spot in the 3-4-1-2. The problem there is that he hasn’t looked super comfortable when operating as a central playmaker, but this could be resolved by instructing Muriel to drop off McGuire and play a little deeper, and giving Facu free reign to roam into the wide areas where he’s more comfortable.

Assuming Jansson will be missing for a few more games, I think you keep Cartagena at center back, considering how well he’s played there. Ojeda and Angulo come off the bench as impact subs, and you can rotate Ojeda into Lodeiro’s spot in the midfield as necessary to protect the Uruguayan’s legs. Once Jansson is back, he can slot in as the third center back, and Cartagena can move into the midfield, with Nico likely being the man sacrificed in games where Pareja wants more defensive stability, or Cartagena/Araujo dropping to the bench if Papi wants to go in guns blazing. I don’t particularly love that option though, as you generally want your best players on the field, and I have a hard time justifying breaking up the Araujo-Cartagena partnership that’s seen so much success.

The immediate problem with any three-center-back formation is Araujo’s yellow card suspension, which will mean he’s unavailable for Saturday’s game against San Jose. Theoretically, Cartagena could move up the field to take his place and Smith could slot in for the Peruvian, or Felipe could start in Araujo’s place, but if Santos and Thorhallsson are fit enough to start, I think we’ll see the return of a four-man back line. Otherwise, the same lineup would be starting its third game in eight days, and on a West Coast trip to boot. That seems like a recipe for disaster, so while I think there’s a way to trot out a 3-5-2/3-4-1-2, I don’t think we’ll see it on Saturday.

In short, the two formations have shown enough promise for them to merit some more looks, while bearing in mind that we’ve only seen a small sample size. The biggest challenge with continued use comes when Orlando has a clean bill of health and you try to figure out how to get as many of your best players on the field as you can. At that point it becomes a question of whether one of the new formations maximizes this team’s strengths, or if the best course of action is to revert to a 4-2-3-1 and keep the 3-5-2 in the back pocket for when its needed.

Either way, the strategy is going to be something interesting to keep an eye on going forward.