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Orlando City Needs to Start Using the Scoreboard Again

A deep statistical dive into Orlando City’s offensive struggles. We’re warning you…there will be math (but we do it for you).

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

One of the more memorable scenes in my favorite movie of all time, Bull Durham, is when the manager walks into the showers after another loss, yells at the team about their recent performance, and ends with “this (baseball) is a simple game: you throw the ball, you hit the ball, you catch the ball. You got it!?” Soccer is, of course, a little different but the concept remains the same. You pass the ball, you shoot the ball, you score the ball. Unless you are Orlando City, recently.

Anyone can look at the recent results for Orlando City and see that goals have been, shall we say, less than plentiful. But why is that happening? Well, one idea may be that another team in Orlando is using up all the goals, with the Orlando Pride having scored 19 (excluding opposition own goals) to Orlando City’s 15, with the Pride having played four fewer games to boot, but goals are not a zero-sum equation (I know you asked your math teacher for years when you would ever need to use equations in the real world; you’re welcome!), so let’s dive into what has been going on for Orlando City and take a look at what may be causing an average of 0.94 goals/game (again, excluding opposition own goals) in the 2024 MLS season after an average of 1.6 goals/game in 2023.

Wayne Gretzky famously said, “you miss 100% of the shots you don’t take,” but I do not think a lack of shots taken is the main culprit for this Orlando City team this season. Yes, in the last match against the Red Bulls the Lions only managed five shots (all stats in this article are courtesy of fbref.com,  in collaboration with Opta, which codes thousands of matches every weekend across hundreds of competitions all over the world), but for the 2024 season, Orlando City is averaging 11.8 shots/game, 1.1 shots/game fewer than the league average of 12.9 but actually 0.1 higher than Orlando City’s 11.7 shots/game from 2023. Orlando City’s 11.8 shots/game ranks 23rd in all of MLS — not great, but the team with the most shots/game, St. Louis FC at 16.8, has only earned one more point than Orlando City after playing the same number of games, and the correlation (I told you there would be math) between shots/game and goals is relatively weak (r = 0.25, a strong positive correlation would be an r between 0.7 and the maximum r value of 1.0), so a higher value of shots/game does not necessarily lead to more goals.

What does tend to lead to more goals is more shots on target. I know, I know, you never would have thought of that. And as we look into shots on target for Orlando City in 2024, lo and behold, this is where we start to really see where the problems have arisen this season. Orlando City ranks 26th in MLS this year with 29% shots on target, so when you combine a rank of 23rd in shots/game with a rank of no. 26 in shots on target, you get a team that has scored a low amount of Goals as compared to the rest of the league. Orlando City’s 29% shots on target rate in 2024 is an 18% decrease from its 2023 shots on target percentage of 36% (7% raw decrease (36%-29% = 7%) but an 18% percent decrease (29%/36% – 100% = -18%), and the Lions’ 29% shots on target percentage is 1.28 standard deviations below the MLS average.

This is probably the time for me to tell you I was that high school math teacher who students asked about using math in the real world, and I did teach AP statistics, where we frequently talked about standard deviations and 1.28 standard deviations below the average is, in this case, to use a technical term, u-g-l-y and they ain’t got no alibi.

Is it as ugly as Bubba Sparxxx rapped about back in 2000? Was that just a question to make a pop culture reference about a song I enjoyed when I was in high school? Yes and yes. The first time I ever heard former Orlando City coach Adrian Heath interviewed he said, “Goals change games,” which of course is obvious and means that those who are taking the most shots need to be game changers. Looking at the table below, we can see who has been taking the shots and the differences between 2024 and 2023:

At first glance there is some good news. Orlando City’s leading shot takers this year are generally shooting on target around the league average, but it is on the clinical side, the goals per shot on target and goals per shot attempt where we can see that Orlando City is struggling.

We do see that Duncan McGuire continues to be clinical when he gets his shots on target, but the big drop for him is that last year he put nearly three out of every four shots on target and this year he is down to something much closer to the league average of around one out of every three. Among players with at least 17 shots last year (I chose this number because it would be 0.5 shots/game across 34 games and because it is my father’s favorite number), Duncan ranked first out of 244 MLS players in shots on target percentage and in goals per shots on target, and though his numbers this year are still above average, he is down to 43rd and 13th out of the 108 players who have taken more than 17 shots, respectively (keeping the same shot volume threshold for consistency). Four other major takeaways from me on this chart:

  • Facundo Torres was second on the list for most shots taken in 2023 and was an excellent finisher (this does include penalties, but they are shots and you have to make them), but in 2024 he is tied for fifth in shots with Dagur Dan Thórhallsson at only 15 shots taken.
  • Martin Ojeda remains a high volume shooter, but he is looking much more like Jordan Poole than Steph Curry this year with a lot of shots on target but not a lot of makes. And by not a lot I mean, sadly, zero.
  • Orlando City as a whole is taking shots from slightly closer to the goal but the team’s most frequent shooters are shooting from farther away than last year, and you do not need me as a math major to tell you that goalkeepers would prefer long shots over close shots.
  • Ercan Kara was a somewhat maligned striker for Orlando City, but he was pretty lethal when he got a shot off, putting more than two out of every five shots on frame and scoring at twice the MLS average on goals/shot. His 2023 shot volume is low on this chart because he left halfway through the season, but in his two years in MLS he scored at 21% and 22% on goals/shot, which put him in the upper echelon of shooters in the league.

Going back to McGuire and where he ranked in all of MLS, here is a heat map, but with the corresponding percentile ranks of Orlando City’s players among players who took at least 17 (hi Dad) shots (red to green scale — 0% (dark red, very low performance) to 100% (dark green, very good performance).

The comparisons between 2024 and 2023 are the most stark again in the columns involving goals, as in 2023 Orlando City’s most frequent shooters were scoring in the upper echelons of all MLS players, and this year there is much more red/orange than green for those with at least 17 shots. The other biggest differences of course surround who is taking the shots. Luis Muriel has arrived and has taken the most shots in 2024, but looking at his career shooting stats there is not a lot of evidence that being a lethal finisher is something in his skillset. Barbra Banda he is not, but then again nobody is Barbra Banda (except Barbra Banda), and expecting Muriel to change his playing style to be more of a finisher rather than initiator while adapting to a new league and teammates is lot to ask for someone who joined after the season began.

The bigger need for Orlando City is to get McGuire back on the field and to get Torres going, Facundo’s shots/90 minutes is down more than 50% from last season (largely owing to playing a lot of wingback over the last several weeks), and for someone who was in the 94th percentile in goals/shot in 2023 to have decreased their shot volume by so much is the opposite of what you want. Plus, Facundo is my son’s favorite player and he misses seeing Torres’ selfie celebration.

I want to end with a positive, however, and that is wrapped around the concept of regression to the mean. In the case of Orlando City this would actually likely be a positive regression as opposed to a negative one. During the last four years, MLS has been remarkably stable in terms of goals/shot on target (35%, 32%, 33%, 33%) and goals/shot (12%, 11%, 11%, 11%). Just because the league has been stable does not mean that Orlando City automatically will improve, but with the talent of the players on the squad and their history, I think it is more likely than not that Orlando City’s low performance so far in 2024 will come back up towards league average — much like a Major League Baseball player’s batting average on balls in play often evens out over time based on their level of skill.

Orlando City has talented players, including many who led the team to the best record in the team’s history last season, and I believe it is likely that we will start seeing small increases in goals/shot on target and goals/shot as the season progresses. I certainly hope we do, because it is much more fun when Orlando City masters this simple game and scores the ball, scores the ball, and scores the ball.

Orlando City

Orlando City vs. Atlanta United: Player Grades and Man of the Match

How did your favorite Lions perform in Orlando City’s 2-1 home loss to Atlanta United?

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

In a somewhat disappointing fashion, Orlando City closed out the 2024 Major League Soccer regular season at home with a 2-1 loss against rival Atlanta United. Following the most recent international break, Orlando City failed to recapture the form that had propelled the squad to three straight victories. After digging themselves an early two-goal hole, the Lions found a way to score before the half and then thought they’d equalized late, only for a Decision Day video review decision to go against them.

Let’s take a look at how Orlando City’s players rated individually in their matchup with Atlanta in the regular-season finale.

Starters

GK, Pedro Gallese, 6.5 — Atlanta attempted nine shots in the match and was able to put five on target. In a blink-and-you-will-miss-it type of start to the match, the visitors found the back of the net twice before the game was even 20 minutes old. It is hard to fault the Peruvian for either of the first two goals as the defense allowed Saba Lobjanidze to walk right through before slotting a ball past the keeper and then failed to mark properly on a ball that Gallese had already parried away from point-blank range, though he might have been able to grab it or control the rebound a bit better. The highlight of Gallese’s night came just seconds after halftime when Dagur Dan Thorhallsson committed a foul in the box. Gallese chose correctly and made a huge save on Atlanta’s penalty to keep it a one-goal game. The Peruvian international completed 11 of his 12 passes for a 91.7% completion rate, including four of five long balls attempted.

D, Rafael Santos, 6 — The match did not start well for Santos as he first conceded a corner that eventually led to Atlanta’s second goal, and then got caught ball-watching on the ensuing corner attempt, allowing Jamal Thiare to find the back of the net. He improved from there, leading the team with 110 touches while completing 68 of his 79 passes (86.1%) with three key passes. That included an assist on a good cross for Martin Ojeda’s header. Defensively, he recorded one interception, one clearance, and one tackle while winning a team-high four aerial duels. Offensively, Santos attempted one off-target shot and completed two successful dribbles.

D, Robin Jansson, 6.5 — The captain contributed a solid, if unspectacular, performance against a team that had been fairly anemic on offense down the stretch. He had 93 touches and completed 77 of his 83 passing attempts for a 92.8% rate, including six of eight long balls. On defense, he had one interception, a team-high four clearances, and a blocked shot. The Swede failed to contribute an offensive statistic against Atlanta.

D, Rodrigo Schlegel, 6 — Orlando fans know at this point that you have to take the good Schlegel with the bad Schlegel and unfortunately bad Schlegel showed up during the first Atlanta goal as he was caught flat-footed as Lobjanidze blew right by him. Aside from that, he was mainly solid in the match. Schlegel had 84 touches and won two aerials. He completed 78 of his 80 passes (97.5%), including eight of nine long balls. Defensively, he contributed one clearance while committing two fouls. He attempted one shot which was off target.

D, Dagur Dan Thorhallsson, 5.5 — Thorhallsson returned to the starting lineup after missing several matches and looked the part early of someone trying to get back up to speed and match fitness. Considering Atlanta had only scored four goals in the first 30 minutes of a match the whole season, Thorhallsson and company allowed the Five Stripes far too much daylight, resulting in a goal just a few minutes into the game. He had 64 touches and completed 45 of his 49 passes (91.8%), including one key pass. Thorhallsson was accurate on both of his long ball attempts but only logged one successful cross on four attempts. Defensively, he recorded a team-high three tackles and three clearances. Things could have gone sideways quickly for Orlando after the halftime break, as Thorhallsson was whistled for a foul in the box, resulting in an Atlanta penalty kick. He was subbed off in the 80th minute and will look to get his offensive rhythm back during training this week as he failed to record a shot.

MF, César Araujo, 6.5 — Missing his dynamic defensive partner, Wilder Cartagena, due to yellow card accumulation, Araujo was asked to do a little bit of everything against Atlanta and had an overall successful outing in front of the home crowd. He registered 107 touches and completed 81 of his 87 passes (93.1%). He tied Santos for the team lead in key passes with three and completed seven of his eight long ball attempts. He was unsuccessful on his lone crossing attempt. Defensively, he contributed one tackle, one interception, and three clearances. Offensively, Araujo was more involved than usual, logging two shots with one on target, and he was fouled a team-high five times.

MF, Felipe, 5 — Inserted for Cartagena due to his suspension, Felipe was also partly culpable on Atlanta’s first goal. The veteran from Brazil logged 47 touches in 52 minutes of action and completed 32 of his 38 passing attempts (84.2%), contributing two key passes. Felipe was unsuccessful in all three of his long ball attempts and defensively contributed one tackle and two interceptions. Offensively, Felipe recorded a shot but it failed to land on frame. He was subbed off in the 52nd minute for Kyle Smith.

MF, Iván Angulo, 6 — Angulo did not play badly but he was more invisible than usual. The key to the Colombian speedster’s game is to create chaos and to blow by opponents. Against Atlanta, Angulo failed to do much of that, but he also did not create egregious errors. Angulo logged 62 touches and completed 43 of his 48 passing attempts (89.6%) and mainly avoided some of the turnovers in his own half that have plagued him in recent games. He was credited with one key pass and one shot attempt that was off target. His cross turned into the McGuire goal that was overturned in the 89th minute. The season leader in minutes played went the full 90 once again and chipped in one tackle on defense.

MF, Martín Ojeda, 7.5 (MotM) — Ojeda was in full attack mode throughout the match and in my humble opinion was sacrificed far too early for how well he was playing. He scored Orlando’s lone goal in the 42nd minute with a glancing header and was credited with 56 touches. He completed 36 of his 39 passing attempts (92.3%), including two key passes. All three of his long ball attempts were successful and he completed one of his three crosses. Defensively, he failed to record a statistic but this match was all about Ojeda hunting his shot. The Argentine attacker led the team with eight total shots, four of which were on target, which was easily the best mark on the team. He might have had a hat trick had his right-footed attempts fallen instead for his preferred left foot. Ojeda picked up a yellow card in the 62nd minute — the only card shown to either team on the night — and was substituted out for Luis Muriel in the 68th minute of the match. With the way Ojeda was playing on offense, I would have much preferred that Muriel replace Angulo or Facundo Torres.

MF, Facundo Torres, 6 — With Ojeda hunting, fellow Designated Player Torres had an off night. He had 68 touches and completed 49 of his 56 passes (87.5%). Torres recorded one key pass, was unsuccessful on his lone cross, and completed one of his two long balls. Defensively, Torres failed to record a statistic, but he won three aerial duels. Offensively, he logged two shots, which were both off-target.

F, Ramiro Enrique, 5.5 — Enrique had a quiet night, logging only 18 touches which is simply not enough, considering the Lions were trailing essentially from the jump. He completed eight of his 10 passes (80%), including two key passes, and his lone shot attempt was on target. Defensively, Enrique did not contribute a statistic and was substituted off in the 68th minute for Duncan McGuire.

Substitutes

MF, Kyle Smith (52′), 6 —  After starting much of the last month for the injured Thorhallsson, Smith started on the bench against Atlanta, replacing Felipe in the early moments of the second half. Smith had 49 touches as a substitute, and he completed 45 of his 47 passes (95.7%). He logged one tackle on the defensive end and did not contribute an offensive stat.

F, Duncan McGuire (68′), 6 — The second-year attacker thought he’d scored a late equalizer, in the 89th minute, but it was disallowed as referee Rubiel Vazquez ruled the ball had clearly hit his hand before he scored. McGuire had just six touches and completed two of his three passing attempts. Besides the overturned goal, McGuire recorded a shot on target.

MF, Luis Muriel (68’), 6  Muriel entered the match for Ojeda with a little more than 20 minutes left in the match, and Orlando down a goal. He had 20 touches and completed 14 of his 17 attempts (82.4%), including two key passes, and was accurate on both of his long ball attempts. Muriel was credited with two successful dribbles but did not attempt a shot.

MF, Nicolas Lodeiro, (80’), N/A — Lodeiro entered the match late with Orlando hunting for the equalizer. He had 23 touches and completed 14 of his 18 passes (77.8%). Lodeiro attempted two shots, putting one on frame, and did not contribute a defensive statistic.


That’s how I saw the individual performances from the final match of the regular season. What did you think? Be sure to let us know in the comments, and vote in the poll below for your Orlando City Man of the Match.

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Lion Links: 10/21/24

Orlando City and Orlando Pride lose, Orlando City B eliminated from playoffs, Seb Hines discusses diversity in soccer, and more.

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Image courtesy of Orlando Pride / Jeremy Reper

Hello, Mane Landers! I hope all is well with you down in Florida. I just finished setting up broadcasting for the NISA championship match in California over the weekend. This week, I’m back to staying busy at Under Armour and covering high school sports. It was a rough weekend for Orlando’s soccer teams, and we have plenty to cover today. Let’s get to the links!

Lions Fall to Atlanta United at Home on Decision Day

Orlando City fell 2-1 to Atlanta United on Saturday at Inter&Co Stadium on Decision Day. The Lions trailed 2-0 early in the first half before Martin Ojeda pulled one back for Orlando just before halftime. The Lions thought they had a late equalizer from Duncan McGuire, but the referee overturned the goal after a video review. The loss ended Orlando’s three-match winning streak, but it still clinched fourth place in the Eastern Conference as New York City FC lost to CF Montreal. Orlando’s next match will be in the first round of the MLS Cup Playoffs at home against Charlotte FC on Sunday.

Orlando Pride Lose to NJ/NY Gotham FC on the Road

The Orlando Pride lost their second straight match with a 3-1 defeat on the road to NJ/NY Gotham FC on Sunday at Red Bull Arena. The Pride were down 1-0 early in the first half before Adriana converted a penalty to tie things up. Gotham added two goals from Rose Lavelle and Ella Stevens to seal the victory and extend its unbeaten streak to seven matches. The Pride’s next game will be on Nov. 2 at home when they face the Seattle Reign in their final match of the regular season.

Seb Hines Speaks on Diversity in Soccer

BBC Sport interviewed Pride Head Coach Seb Hines after the club won its first NWSL Shield. Hines discussed how he’s helped reshape the club’s culture and advocates for more opportunities for black coaches in the sport alongside assistant coaches Giles Barnes and Yolanda Thomas.

“Being a trailblazer comes with a big responsibility because I want to advocate for more black coaches and diversity within the sport.

“It’s a responsibility to fight for more equality globally. It’s less about winning and more about breaking those barriers. I want to continue to give hope to others.”

Thomas, who joined the Pride’s coaching staff in 2023, also spoke on her passion to drive change and how she was inspired by former England manager Hope Powell.

OCB Eliminated from MLS NEXT Pro Playoffs

Orlando City B was eliminated from postseason play after losing 5-4 on penalties to Chicago Fire FC II following a 1-1 draw at SeatGeek Stadium in the MLS NEXT Pro playoffs . The Young Lions got off to a great start with a goal from Jack Lynn to take the lead in the first half. However, scored an equalizer just before halftime. After 90 minutes and extra time, the game went to penalties, where both teams exchanged goals until sudden death. OCB’s Favian Loyola missed his penalty, while Jean Diouf scored to send Chicago into the conference semifinals. OCB missed out on a chance to get its first postseason win and its 2024 season came to an end.

Orlando City and Pride Announce Hurricane Relief Efforts

Orlando City and the Pride announced hurricane relief effort plans over the weekend so fans can get involved and support those in need following Hurricane Helene and Hurricane Milton. The club also announced that the Wilf Family Foundations contributed $450,000 towards relief efforts, with $350,000 going to the American Red Cross and $100,000 to Heart of Florida United Way, a charity partner for the Pride.

Free Kicks

  • Check out Orlando City’s hype video on social media leading up to its playoff match.

That will do it for me today, Mane Landers. Enjoy your Monday and I’ll see you next time.

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Orlando City

Orlando City vs. Atlanta United: Five Takeaways

Here’s what we learned from Orlando City’s 2-1 loss to Atlanta United.

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

Orlando City hosted Atlanta United at Inter&Co Stadium on Decision Day. The 2-1 loss had its share of controversy, but the Lions’ home undefeated streak ended at seven. While it was a disappointing result, I’m hopeful it will put a chip on the shoulder of Orlando City so the team rolls through the playoffs.

Here are my five takeaways from a depressing but ultimately meaningless loss.

Not a Great Start, Bob

The right side of Orlando City’s defense decided that the level of difficulty in the match needed to be higher. As such, the defenders on that side all decided to take a nap or close their eyes in the seventh minute. Pedro Amador’s back heel to put Saba Lobjanidze behind the defense was slick, and it allowed Lobjanidze to put the ball past Pedro Gallese and into the bottom right corner of the goal. Nine minutes later, Gallese made the initial save on Atlanta’s corner kick, but he pushed it out to Jamal Thiaré, who gave Atlanta the two-goal lead.

It’s Ojeda’s Half

Martin Ojeda was a difference maker for Orlando City right from the start. He managed seven shots in the first half, but it was his goal in the 42nd minute that truly changed the complexion of the match for the Lions. With Orlando City down two goals, Rafael Santos crossed the ball into the box and onto the head of Ojeda, who redirected it past Brad Guzan to pull the Lions within one. It was fitting that Ojeda got the goal, given the good work he’d done all half.

The Great Gallese

Dagur Dan Thorhallsson almost put a dagger in the hearts of the Orlando City faithful when he fouled Lobjanidze inside the box to give Atlanta United a penalty kick less than a minute into the second half. Alexey Miranchuk stepped up to take the kick for Atlanta, but was denied the goal by Gallese. El Pulpo guessed correctly, diving to his right side and getting a tentacle on the shot to keep Orlando City in the match.

The Hand of McGuire

Duncan McGuire’s arm couldn’t have been closer to his body unless it was inside his ribcage. Regardless, the video assistant referee looked at it and sent referee Rubiel Vazquez to the monitor for a second look. Vazquez determined that the ball hit his hand prior to him putting the ball in the back of the net. I was watching from home, and I didn’t think the video evidence was definitive enough to overturn the goal. Of course, I’m not Don Garber…er…PRO referees. If McGuire’s goal stood, Atlanta was out of playoff contention. Instead, the decision put Atlanta into the playoff Wild Card match against CF Montreal.

Good Enough but Not Good Enough

Ultimately, the result didn’t matter for Orlando City. New York City FC’s loss ensured the Lions finished the regular season in fourth place, earning home field advantage in the round. Other than the two defensive lapses early, the Lions dominated the match. Orlando City took 20 shots to Atlanta’s seven, with eight on target to Atlanta’s four. The Lions also held 67% of the possession, and passed at a 90% rate. The chances were there, but saves by Guzan and a controversial overturned goal contributed to the Orlando City loss.


That is what I saw in the 2-1 loss. What were your biggest takeaways from the game? Let us know in the comments below and as always, vamos Orlando!

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