Orlando City
Orlando City Needs to Start Using the Scoreboard Again
A deep statistical dive into Orlando City’s offensive struggles. We’re warning you…there will be math (but we do it for you).

One of the more memorable scenes in my favorite movie of all time, Bull Durham, is when the manager walks into the showers after another loss, yells at the team about their recent performance, and ends with “this (baseball) is a simple game: you throw the ball, you hit the ball, you catch the ball. You got it!?” Soccer is, of course, a little different but the concept remains the same. You pass the ball, you shoot the ball, you score the ball. Unless you are Orlando City, recently.
Anyone can look at the recent results for Orlando City and see that goals have been, shall we say, less than plentiful. But why is that happening? Well, one idea may be that another team in Orlando is using up all the goals, with the Orlando Pride having scored 19 (excluding opposition own goals) to Orlando City’s 15, with the Pride having played four fewer games to boot, but goals are not a zero-sum equation (I know you asked your math teacher for years when you would ever need to use equations in the real world; you’re welcome!), so let’s dive into what has been going on for Orlando City and take a look at what may be causing an average of 0.94 goals/game (again, excluding opposition own goals) in the 2024 MLS season after an average of 1.6 goals/game in 2023.
Wayne Gretzky famously said, “you miss 100% of the shots you don’t take,” but I do not think a lack of shots taken is the main culprit for this Orlando City team this season. Yes, in the last match against the Red Bulls the Lions only managed five shots (all stats in this article are courtesy of fbref.com, in collaboration with Opta, which codes thousands of matches every weekend across hundreds of competitions all over the world), but for the 2024 season, Orlando City is averaging 11.8 shots/game, 1.1 shots/game fewer than the league average of 12.9 but actually 0.1 higher than Orlando City’s 11.7 shots/game from 2023. Orlando City’s 11.8 shots/game ranks 23rd in all of MLS — not great, but the team with the most shots/game, St. Louis FC at 16.8, has only earned one more point than Orlando City after playing the same number of games, and the correlation (I told you there would be math) between shots/game and goals is relatively weak (r = 0.25, a strong positive correlation would be an r between 0.7 and the maximum r value of 1.0), so a higher value of shots/game does not necessarily lead to more goals.
What does tend to lead to more goals is more shots on target. I know, I know, you never would have thought of that. And as we look into shots on target for Orlando City in 2024, lo and behold, this is where we start to really see where the problems have arisen this season. Orlando City ranks 26th in MLS this year with 29% shots on target, so when you combine a rank of 23rd in shots/game with a rank of no. 26 in shots on target, you get a team that has scored a low amount of Goals as compared to the rest of the league. Orlando City’s 29% shots on target rate in 2024 is an 18% decrease from its 2023 shots on target percentage of 36% (7% raw decrease (36%-29% = 7%) but an 18% percent decrease (29%/36% – 100% = -18%), and the Lions’ 29% shots on target percentage is 1.28 standard deviations below the MLS average.
This is probably the time for me to tell you I was that high school math teacher who students asked about using math in the real world, and I did teach AP statistics, where we frequently talked about standard deviations and 1.28 standard deviations below the average is, in this case, to use a technical term, u-g-l-y and they ain’t got no alibi.
Is it as ugly as Bubba Sparxxx rapped about back in 2000? Was that just a question to make a pop culture reference about a song I enjoyed when I was in high school? Yes and yes. The first time I ever heard former Orlando City coach Adrian Heath interviewed he said, “Goals change games,” which of course is obvious and means that those who are taking the most shots need to be game changers. Looking at the table below, we can see who has been taking the shots and the differences between 2024 and 2023:

At first glance there is some good news. Orlando City’s leading shot takers this year are generally shooting on target around the league average, but it is on the clinical side, the goals per shot on target and goals per shot attempt where we can see that Orlando City is struggling.
We do see that Duncan McGuire continues to be clinical when he gets his shots on target, but the big drop for him is that last year he put nearly three out of every four shots on target and this year he is down to something much closer to the league average of around one out of every three. Among players with at least 17 shots last year (I chose this number because it would be 0.5 shots/game across 34 games and because it is my father’s favorite number), Duncan ranked first out of 244 MLS players in shots on target percentage and in goals per shots on target, and though his numbers this year are still above average, he is down to 43rd and 13th out of the 108 players who have taken more than 17 shots, respectively (keeping the same shot volume threshold for consistency). Four other major takeaways from me on this chart:
- Facundo Torres was second on the list for most shots taken in 2023 and was an excellent finisher (this does include penalties, but they are shots and you have to make them), but in 2024 he is tied for fifth in shots with Dagur Dan Thórhallsson at only 15 shots taken.
- Martin Ojeda remains a high volume shooter, but he is looking much more like Jordan Poole than Steph Curry this year with a lot of shots on target but not a lot of makes. And by not a lot I mean, sadly, zero.
- Orlando City as a whole is taking shots from slightly closer to the goal but the team’s most frequent shooters are shooting from farther away than last year, and you do not need me as a math major to tell you that goalkeepers would prefer long shots over close shots.
- Ercan Kara was a somewhat maligned striker for Orlando City, but he was pretty lethal when he got a shot off, putting more than two out of every five shots on frame and scoring at twice the MLS average on goals/shot. His 2023 shot volume is low on this chart because he left halfway through the season, but in his two years in MLS he scored at 21% and 22% on goals/shot, which put him in the upper echelon of shooters in the league.
Going back to McGuire and where he ranked in all of MLS, here is a heat map, but with the corresponding percentile ranks of Orlando City’s players among players who took at least 17 (hi Dad) shots (red to green scale — 0% (dark red, very low performance) to 100% (dark green, very good performance).

The comparisons between 2024 and 2023 are the most stark again in the columns involving goals, as in 2023 Orlando City’s most frequent shooters were scoring in the upper echelons of all MLS players, and this year there is much more red/orange than green for those with at least 17 shots. The other biggest differences of course surround who is taking the shots. Luis Muriel has arrived and has taken the most shots in 2024, but looking at his career shooting stats there is not a lot of evidence that being a lethal finisher is something in his skillset. Barbra Banda he is not, but then again nobody is Barbra Banda (except Barbra Banda), and expecting Muriel to change his playing style to be more of a finisher rather than initiator while adapting to a new league and teammates is lot to ask for someone who joined after the season began.
The bigger need for Orlando City is to get McGuire back on the field and to get Torres going, Facundo’s shots/90 minutes is down more than 50% from last season (largely owing to playing a lot of wingback over the last several weeks), and for someone who was in the 94th percentile in goals/shot in 2023 to have decreased their shot volume by so much is the opposite of what you want. Plus, Facundo is my son’s favorite player and he misses seeing Torres’ selfie celebration.
I want to end with a positive, however, and that is wrapped around the concept of regression to the mean. In the case of Orlando City this would actually likely be a positive regression as opposed to a negative one. During the last four years, MLS has been remarkably stable in terms of goals/shot on target (35%, 32%, 33%, 33%) and goals/shot (12%, 11%, 11%, 11%). Just because the league has been stable does not mean that Orlando City automatically will improve, but with the talent of the players on the squad and their history, I think it is more likely than not that Orlando City’s low performance so far in 2024 will come back up towards league average — much like a Major League Baseball player’s batting average on balls in play often evens out over time based on their level of skill.
Orlando City has talented players, including many who led the team to the best record in the team’s history last season, and I believe it is likely that we will start seeing small increases in goals/shot on target and goals/shot as the season progresses. I certainly hope we do, because it is much more fun when Orlando City masters this simple game and scores the ball, scores the ball, and scores the ball.
Orlando City
Orlando City Unveils New Perfect Storm Kit Ahead of 2025 MLS Season
The Lions’ new kits are meant to represent the uniqueness and intensity of the Central Florida weather.

Orlando City unveiled the club’s new home “Perfect Storm” kit today. The new home purple kit is meant to evoke the intensity of the Central Florida weather, and features a lightning bolt (called a “thunderbolt” by the club) made out of the Orlando area code, 407, on the back of the neck and a jocktag with a doppler radar storm icon. Per the club, no two kits will have the exact same pattern.
The Perfect Storm kit will be available on MLSStore.com and on OCMobileShop.com, with pick-up at The Den at Inter&Co Stadium starting Thursday during regular business hours.
“This kit is a tribute to our fans who have supported us day in and day out, through everything, rain or shine,” said Orlando City Chief Marketing Officer Pedro Araujo in a club press release. “It is also inspired by our players’ ability to thrive in adverse weather conditions, and a reminder that Inter&Co Stadium is one of the toughest environments in Major League Soccer for visiting teams to compete in.”
The Perfect Storm Kit will be first available to fans at the club’s official jersey launch tonight at 6 p.m. at Canvas (1401 Florida Mall Ave.). Fans can purchase the new shirt and have it customized. The first 200 fans in attendance to purchase the new kit will receive an exclusive CITYiD patch
The Lions will first wear the new kit at their home opener against the Philadelphia Union on Saturday, Feb. 22.
Here are some shots of the new kit:

















Lion Links
Lion Links: 2/12/25
Leagues Cup Schedule released, Sams and Moorhouse called up, Champions League results, and more.

Welcome to Wednesday, Mane Landers! It’s new home kit reveal day, so get ready to potentially spend some money. I may end up getting one regardless of how it looks. I’ve lost some weight, and while that is good, none of my jerseys fit anymore. I hope it’s a good one.
We want to wish a very happy birthday to Orlando City B midfielder Jhon Solis. Additionally, I want to wish my son Chris a very happy birthday. Now, let’s get to the links.
Orlando City’s Leagues Cup Fixtures Revealed
The official Leagues Cup 2025 Phase One schedule dropped Tuesday, meaning we now know Orlando City’s first three matches of the competition. All three matches will be played at Inter&Co Stadium against Liga MX squads. The Lions will face Pumas UNAM in the first match on July 30, followed by Atlas FC on Aug. 2, and then Necaxa on Aug. 6. Phase One of the competition is effectively a group stage. If Orlando City can advance out of Phase One, the Lions will head to the knockout rounds.
Pride International Call Ups
The Orlando Pride’s Emily Sams and Anna Moorhouse received call-ups for the USWNT and the England Women’s National Team, respectively. USWNT Coach Emma Hayes included Sams on her 23-player roster for the 2025 SheBelieves Cup later this month. The U.S. will play matches against Japan, Australia, and Colombia.
Moorhouse was selected by Lioness coach Sarina Wiegman for the UEFA Women’s Nations League. England’s first two matches are against Portugal on Feb. 21 and against Spain on Feb. 26. After that, the competition continues in April.
MLS Transfer Round Up
With Orlando City finally signing some new players, other MLS clubs continue to make moves in the off-season. Former Orlando City midfielder Junior Urso signed with the Houston Dynamo through 2025 with an option for 2026. Houston is the Bear’s third MLS club.
French second-division side Amiens SC is in a selling mood. The club sent defender Osaze Urhoghide to FC Dallas. Minnesota United FC signed midfielder Owen Gene from Amiens SC to an MLS U22 Initiative contract.
Elsewhere, the Philadelphia Union signed Homegrown forward Eddy Davis III, and D.C. United signed midfielder Brandon Servania. Out west, the San Jose Earthquakes have signed goalkeeper Daniel to a contract extension, and Nashville SC signed midfielder Matthew Corcoran from USL Championship side Birmingham Legion FC.
Champions League Results
UEFA Champions League continued Tuesday, with Paris Saint-Germain getting things going with a 3-0 win over Brest. Ousmane Dembélé scored a brace in the match to cement the victory. Borussia Dortmund also managed a 3-0 victory over Sporting Lisbon. All three goals came in the second half, including Serhou Guirassy’s 10th in the competition to equal Erling Haaland and Robert Lewandowski.
Real Madrid scored two goals to come from behind and defeat Manchester City 3-2. Jude Bellingham scored the winning goal in second-half stoppage time. Weston McKennie got things going for Juventus in its 2-1 victory over PSV Eindhoven. Samuel Mbangula scored the winning goal.
Free Kicks
- Sam Kerr has been found not guilty of causing racially aggravated harassment in an incident with a Metropolitan Police officer in London on Jan. 30, 2023.
- Lucho Acosta is reportedly headed to FC Dallas. Would have been cooler if he went to Orlando City, but whatever.
- It seems that Lionel Messi will stop ducking Orlando City — at least in the preseason.
That will do it for today. Check back later today for our coverage of the new kit. Vamos Orlando!
Lion Links
Lion Links: 2/11/25
Orlando City signs Eduard Atuesta, MLS news roundup, Americans in midweek action, and more.

Happy Tuesday, gang! It was a long weekend for me but an interesting one, as I attended an event at St. Louis City’s Energizer Stadium on Saturday night. It was a fun time, but personally I prefer Orlando City’s home digs. We have plenty of things to discuss this morning, so let’s get into the links.
Orlando City Signs Eduard Atuesta
Orlando City has found its replacement for the injured Wilder Cartagena, as the club announced the signing of Colombian midfielder Eduard Atuesta from Palmeiras on Monday. Atuesta’s deal runs through the end of the 2025 season and also contains a club option for 2026. While the Lions still have some depth issues that need to be addressed at various positions, Atuesta will pair alongside Cesar Araujo in midfield, and if his previous numbers in Major League Soccer are any indication, he may even provide more goal scoring and creation from the position than Cartagena usually did.
MLS News Roundup
With the start of the MLS season under two weeks away, the off-season news is still flying thick and fast. First up, the Colorado Rapids have signed midfielder Ted Ku-DiPietro from D.C. United in exchange for up to $1.4 million in cash, with United also maintaining a sell-on percentage in the player. The trade was executed using the league’s cash-based trade system, with Colorado becoming the latest team to make use of the new mechanism. Up next, San Diego FC has signed defender Willy Kumado from Lyngby Boldklub in the Danish Superliga. The right back joins on a two-year deal that also contains option years for 2027 and 2028. Finally, Tom Bogert is reporting that Joseph Paintsil is expected to be out of action for over a month after sustaining an injury to his quadriceps.
Americans in Midweek Action
As always, there are a number of Americans taking part in games during the working week, and there’s a heavy emphasis on UEFA Champions League play. Things get started later today, as Tim Weah, Weston McKennie, and Juventus face a PSV Eindhoven side that has all four of Ricardo Pepi, Richy Ledezma, Sergino Dest, and Malik Tillman injured. Meanwhile, Gio Reyna, Cole Campbell, and Borussia Dortmund will travel to face Sporting CP. Wednesday has Christian Pulisic and Yunus Musah traveling with AC Milan to take on Feyenoord, while Cameron Carter-Vickers, Auston Trusty, and Celtic will be sorely tested at home against Bayern Munich. Thursday will wrap up European play with Johnny Cardoso and Real Betis squaring off against Gent in the Conference League.
Josh Sargent’s Opportunity
Josh Sargent had a difficult end to 2024, as he spent several months on the sideline while recovering from a groin injury that eventually required surgery. There were some natural moments of wondering what he’d be like when he made his return, but he’s hit the ground running since his first game back on Jan. 25, as he has four goals in three games for Norwich City. Not only is he getting his chance at the club level, but with Pepi and Folarin Balogun both currently injured, Sargent looks almost certain to lead the line for the United States Men’s National Team for March’s Concacaf Nations League semifinal matches. Sometimes timing is everything, and right now Sargent’s timing is pretty damn good.
Free Kicks
- Daryl Dike ticked off another box on his road to making his return from injury, as he played for West Bromwich Albion’s under-21 team on Monday.
- The Houston Dash have signed former Orlando Pride midfielder Evelina Duljan.
- USL Championship side Miami FC has signed former USMNT and D.C. United goalkeeper Bill Hamid.
- Plymouth Argyle’s reward for beating Liverpool in the FA Cup is a trip to face Manchester City.
- Barcelona defender Mapi Leon has been accused of “violating the privacy” of Espanyol’s Daniela Caracas during Sunday’s game between the two teams.
- Finally, the U-17 U.S. Men’s National Team destroyed the Virgin Islands in group play, 22-0, as part of U-17 World Cup qualifying Monday night. The 22-goal win was the largest margin of victory ever by a U.S. team (men’s or women’s) in a qualifier. Chase Adams of Columbus Crew 2 scored 10 goals in the match. The United States will face St. Kitts & Nevis Wednesday before wrapping up Group F play Saturday against Cuba.
That does it for me this morning. Vamos Orlando!
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