Orlando City
Is Luis Muriel Who We Thought He Would Be?
A thorough investigation into whether Luis Muriel has underperformed or if fans just need some dissuasion.

Winston Churchill famously evaluated what Russia would do during World War II by saying, “I cannot forecast to you the action of Russia. It is a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma, but perhaps there is a key.” In the grand scheme of things, the performance of one player on Orlando City’s 2024 squad is slightly less important than what Great Britain’s prime minister was discussing, I think, but when analyzing Luis Muriel and how his season has gone thus far, I continue to come back to the same question: is Luis Muriel underperforming expectations or were our expectations never correct in the first place?
Let’s get right into it — Muriel’s traditional stats thus far this season do not look fantastic for a striker (though it must be said that his post-goal dance on Saturday, dubbed “The Muriel” on this week’s episode of The Mane Land PawedCast, did look fantastic). Here is a chart, using data from fbref.com in collaboration with Opta, that shows some of his 2024 stats, their rank in MLS, and their rank on Orlando City (for some of these metrics I included a qualifier of number of attempts and chose 19 as the minimum, because for many teams that would mean a player had averaged at least one attempt per game in that category):

For a player who is, according to the MLS Players Salary Guide, the 12th-highest paid player in MLS, you would like to see a lot of those ranks closer to the top 10 or 20 in the league than what you see in that chart. For a player who is by far the highest paid on Orlando City’s 2024 team, and is the second highest-paid player ever for Orlando City (Kaká was the highest paid), you would like to see him leading the team in at least one of those categories, if not several.
The bottom two in particular stand out to me, as there are 125 MLS players who have taken at least 19 shots this season, and Muriel ranks 113th on that list in distance from the goal and 92nd in getting his shots on target, meaning he is shooting from farther away than nearly all high-volume shooters, and he is getting his shots on goal less often than most. In fact, his shot profile shows that he is taking a higher percentage of shots from 25+ yards away from the goal (dark purple section below) than any of his teammates are taking from 19+ yards away from the goal (dark purple + light purple sections), and he is taking nearly 70% of all of his shots from outside of the 18.

Now, were he putting these shots on goal — or, even better, in the goal — then nobody would care about where he was shooting from, but when you have three goals all year and 69% of your shots are not on target, then heads are going to shake, shake, shake, shake like a song by the Ying Yang Twins and Pitbull. But this is where I think a step back is needed, because if fans were expecting Muriel to come in and perform as a traditional striker or No. 9, then they were misreading his historical performance and his strengths as a player.
When you look at Muriel’s season-by-season statistics, two seasons jump out that would seem to contradict what I just wrote, and those are his 2019-2020 and 2020-2021 seasons, when he scored 18 and 22 goals, respectively.
“That seems like a lot of goals for someone you say is not a traditional striker, Andrew.”
Well, yes, but 11 of those 40 goals were from free kicks (which definitely takes skill, but skill that is not unique to a striker), and two were rebounds that fell to him inside the six-yard box, and while I do not generally love the statistic called xG (expected goals), it can be useful in some contexts, and those two rebounds both fell to Muriel in a location where a goal was expected 82% and 85% of the time. It’s almost so easy a caveman could do it.
So, either we are left with 27 of his goals (excluding 11 free kicks + two rebounds) or 29 of his goals (excluding only the 11 free kicks) that came from open play during those two high-scoring years — an average of 14.5 or 13.5 a season. Those are definitely good numbers, especially in a highly rated league like Serie A, but they are still also outliers when compared to his goals/year during most of his career.
Looking at his seasons from 2010-2011 through 2022-2023, excluding the two big seasons discussed above, Muriel averaged six non-penalty-kick goals per season. He scored those goals in Italy’s Serie A or Spain’s La Liga, top leagues, but six goals/year is not an amount generally associated with big-time strikers. To assume he would all of a sudden become a major goal scorer in the latter stages of his career just because he is joining a league rated lower than the one where he played previously is a bit of a stretch, and may be an unfair expectation by us as fans.
The other part I want to focus on that I think may be underappreciated by fans is all of the non-scoring contributions that Muriel has made during his time on the field. Yes, in the end the only stats that actually matter are goals and wins, and there have not been a lot of either thus far this season, but no single player is primarily responsible for that, even if they are a highly paid Designated Player.
A lot of the issues Orlando City has had this year are due to geometry (there will always be math when I write) and how the Lions’ shape needs to be in order to get the most out of the players on this year’s team. There are quite a lot of overlapping skills and overlapping places where players like to receive the ball, and that has frequently led to spacing issues on the field with creative players all wanting to go and get the ball in the same location at the same time.
Muriel, unlike many of his teammates, is a two-footed player and thus able to attack from anywhere on the field and in any direction, allowing him to create open spaces to play the ball all over the attacking third of the field. While this can get him into trouble (see: shots from very long range), he also has used this ability to be one of the more active and dangerous players in all of MLS when he has the ball:

As an aside, the last row there is interesting to me because Muriel ranks 16th in all of MLS, yet third on Orlando City (behind Nico Lodeiro in third overall and Facundo Torres in 15th overall). The Crew have two players in the top 16 as well, and every other player in the top 16 is the only one on his respective team. I am not sure whether Orlando City having three near the top is an example of an unselfish team that is comfortable playing the ball among playmakers or reflects a team that does not have the pecking order set, and thus it becomes a little of “my turn, your turn” type offense.
Last season, there was a clear order in that Torres led the team and was 25th in MLS, and the next-highest-ranking players were Martín Ojeda in 57th and Mauricio Pereyra in 79th. Is this something? I think it is still too early to tell, but removing own goals, Orlando City players scored 1.59 goals/game in 2023 and thus far this season they are only scoring 1.16 goals/game, and I believe that the lack of a defined primary creator is one of several contributing factors to the lower-scoring output this season.
Back to Muriel and that chart above, his talent and skill clearly shows in how he is able to thread passes into dangerous areas and create shots at a rate that puts him among the leaders in all of MLS. His dribbling ability, reflected in the progressive carry percentage, shows that he is moving the ball at least 10 yards forward towards the goal 12.7% of the time he dribbles the ball in the offensive half of the field. This puts the defense under pressure, because he is building up a head of steam and coming at pace, and since he is also completing approximately 80% of his short passes (0-15 yards) thus far this season, and completing many of those into the 18, he is a constant threat once he has the ball.
As I mentioned before, Muriel is a two-footed player (Opta’s tracking has the foot used for 83 Muriel goals — 22 were left foot and 61 were right foot, an impressive mix), so he is a player who can go left or right, is accurate with his passes in tight spaces, creates shooting opportunities for his teammates, and wants the ball at all times. These are all qualities you want in an attacking player, especially one as proficient as Muriel is in them.
So we return to the riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma — a player with clear skill and pedigree who is contributing offensively but is not putting up the counting stats fans thought he would, even though he never really did aside from two outlier years. As much as I like to be more glass-half-full than half-empty, I do feel like Muriel should have contributed more goals by this point in the season, but unlike what the fan sitting next to me said during Saturday’s game, I do not think he is massively underperforming either.
In the end, I think Muriel’s performance thus far has been kind of like where we frequently see him on the field, more in the middle than in the front.
Orlando City
Orlando City’s Offense Looks Different With Marco Pašalić on the Right
How Orlando City’s offensive style changed from the end of 2024 to 2025 and how the Croatian contributes differently than Facundo Torres did.

As I often like to do, I will start this article on Orlando City by writing about…baseball. America’s pastime — or at least it was for most of the 20th century — is celebrating opening day for the 2025 season this week, but that is not why I mention baseball. Rather, when I think about baseball I often think about baseball movies, and that brings me to one of the seminal sports films of all time, The Sandlot.
There are many great characters and moments in this movie, but a fan favorite was Michael “Squints” Palledorous. If you have not seen The Sandlot, you should, because that movie is fun and fun is good, but the reason I brought Squints up is because…wait for it…if you squint really hard when looking at Orlando City’s newest Designated Player, Marco Pašalić, then you can see Orlando City’s former Designated Player, and all-time leading scorer, Facundo Torres.
I say you have to squint really hard because aside from being similarly aged (Torres is 154 days older than Pašalić), left-foot-dominant players who play on the right side of the field, the styles of play for both players are quite different, as is how Orlando City has played in 2025 with Pašalić vs. toward the end of 2024 with Torres.
Let’s start with Orlando’s style of play in 2025 vs. the end of 2024, and we will look at the two individual players after that. I am choosing the final games of last season, because those are the most recent games played by the team, and as was frequently discussed in the run-up to this season, Orlando City brought back many of its key players from last season and has much of the same coaching staff as well. If you look at the statistics though, the team is playing differently this season as compared to 2024.
I’ve broken this out into three sections: the first five games of the 2025 regular season, the five 2024 playoff games, and the final five 2024 regular-season games. Playoff games are played differently than regular-season games, so I did not want to just compare the most recent five games of 2024 to the first five of 2025. This data is sourced from fbref.com, tracked by coders from Opta (all data is on a per-game basis):
Category | 2025 Reg. Season (First 5 Games) | 2024 Playoffs (5 games) | 2024 Reg. Season (Last 5 Games) |
---|---|---|---|
Possession | 46% | 56% | 52% |
Passes Attempted | 473 | 538 | 536 |
Touches in Attacking Third | 142 | 195 | 183 |
Shots | 16.0 | 12.4 | 13.4 |
Expected Goals | 2.0 | 1.3 | 1.9 |
Attacks Down Right Side | 37% | 31% | 28% |
We will get back to the attacks down the right side more specifically when we look at Pašalić and Torres, but look at the major differences in all of these numbers. This year’s team, at least through the first few games, is playing a different style of soccer than the 2024 team played at the end of the season. They are possessing the ball less throughout the game but also in particular while in the attacking third of the field. This comes from rapid counterattacks and excellent transition offense as well as a more direct approach to creating shots.
We can see this more direct approach by looking at the reduction in touches per game in the attacking third of the field juxtaposed against an increase of more than 20% in shots per game, meaning that the ratio of touches per shot in the attacking third has decreased dramatically from last year to this year. During the final five regular-season games, the Lions were averaging 13.7 touches per shot, and thus far in 2025 that number is 8.9.
In this context, a touch is counted not as every individual dribble or pass but rather as a count of each person who possesses the ball in the attacking third of the field. So, a pass from player A to player B, who then takes four dribbles and passes to player C is three touches, even though player B dribbled the ball four times.
The upshot of the reduction of touches per shot is that Orlando City is getting to its shots in a reduced number of possessors of the ball, meaning that there has been lower risk of a bad exchange since there have been fewer exchanges. This year’s team is generating shots from more dangerous locations (using expected goals) as well, and the Lions’ 13 goals scored in the first five games leads the league at this point of the season.
Looking at the final row in that table, there is also a big difference in the location of where the Lions are emanating their attacks from. The team is more frequently launching attacks down the right side, and that is where the comparison of Torres and Pašalić starts to come into play. It must also be noted that the primary right back in 2024 was Dagur Dan Thórhallsson, whereas in 2025 it has been future USMNT starter Alex Freeman (I crossed it out, but I do believe that Freeman is a serious candidate to play on the national team), and it is likely not coincidental that there have been more attacks down the right side with the direct playing style of the Pašalić-Freeman combination.
Torres also always made a point to play all across the attacking zone, often switching sides with Iván Angulo, whereas that has not been the case this season with Pašalić. I pulled the heatmaps (thank you very much, whoscored.com) for Pašalić and Torres from the same five-game periods from the table above, and you can see that in Torres’s heatmaps the blue shading goes all over the field, whereas for Pašalić he stays mostly to the right side (Orlando City is attacking from left to right on all of the heatmaps below).

These heatmaps and the following stats show some stark differences between the Croatian Designated Player and the Uruguayan former Designated Player in terms of how they play/played for Orlando City (all data is on a per-game basis):
Category | Pašalić: 2025 Regular Season | Torres: Playoffs | Torres: Last 5 games of 2024 Regular Season |
---|---|---|---|
Touches | 37.8 | 61.0 | 50.8 |
Take-Ons | 4.8 | 2.8 | 1.2 |
Passes Attempted | 23.2 | 52.0 | 43.4 |
Shots | 3.0 | 2.4 | 1.6 |
Shot-Creating Actions | 3.2 | 3.8 | 2.4 |
Progressive Passes Received | 5.6 | 9.8 | 8.0 |
Across nearly every metric there are big differences between the players, but in particular the ones that stand out to me are how much of the offense flowed through Torres last season and how the Lions looked for him to initiate as compared to how Pašalić appears to get his offense in the flow of play — at least through the first five games of this season. Pašalić also attacks more off the dribble than Torres did, as shown by his much higher rate of take-ons per game, and he is able to get shots off at a higher rate as well.
That leads me to the last comparison, which is not shown in the table above, but is the most critical category for any offensive player — goals scored. Orlando City has not yet played 15% of its 2025 MLS regular-season games, but Pašalić has scored four goals and assisted on another. With so many games still to play, we can extrapolate the numbers to see a pace of 27 goals scored and seven assists, but we can also consider that defenses will adjust over a long season and it is unlikely that the pace will remain the same for the next seven months.
Torres, sadly, is not on pace to score any more goals for the Lions, but he did score 37 MLS regular-season goals during his three seasons, including two seasons of 14 goals each, and he added 20 assists as well. His numbers are real, not theoretical or extrapolated, and while it is incredibly exciting to think about Orlando City’s offense and what it could be and what Pašalić could achieve, we are still only five games into the new season, so let’s keep our excitement from boiling over for at least another week.
Pašalić still has a way to go to show that he can consistently create goals the way that Torres did, but if you squint real hard, you can see that the potential is there for him to do so or perhaps even surpass his predecessor out on the right wing. He is playing with a different offensive style but going after the same result.
We will see.
Orlando City
Orlando City vs. LA Galaxy: Three Keys to Victory
What do the Lions need to do to secure their first road win of the season?

Orlando City heads to the other coast to take on the defending MLS champions LA Galaxy Saturday. The Lions are coming off a dominating 4-1 victory over D.C. United at Inter&Co Stadium. Orlando City looks capable of beating any team with the way the offense is humming, but road wins are tough to come by in MLS. Here’s what Orlando City needs to do to earn all three points against the LA Galaxy.
Keep the Good Times Rolling
Orlando City leads MLS in scoring with 13 goals so far this season. Just as importantly, the Lions’ three Designated Players — Martin Ojeda, Luis Muriel, and Marco Pasalic — have accounted for nine of those goals. Additionally, the trio has provided seven of the 16 total assists this season. I’m no math guy, but 20 goal contributions from the players that are supposed to be doing just that is good stuff.
The Galaxy have shipped 10 goals so far this season. The champs are vulnerable and the Lions are on a goal-scoring hot streak. If the Lions can get the first goal of the match early, they will better be able to dictate the terms to the home team. As such, the Orlando City offense, led by the Designated Players, needs to keep things going against the Galaxy. I expect it will take multiple goals to secure a win.
Get Gritty
Cesar Araujo made his return against D.C. United and it was the first time Orlando City didn’t give up multiple goals this season. I want to see him be the enforcer he usually is against the likes of Edwin Cerrillo and Christian Ramirez. However, I also want to see Eduard Atuesta show a bit more grittiness in the defense as well. You can’t push the ball forward if you don’t take it away from the opposition.
Pedro Gallese will be back for this match, and he will rightly get the start. I’m not taking anything away from Javier Otero’s first start, but sometimes defenses take on more responsibility when you have a younger, less experienced keeper in goal. That shouldn’t mean Araujo or the back line can take it easy. We’ve seen what happens when this defense loses focus and it isn’t good. Show me the grit.
The Intangibles
Traveling all the way across the country to play is never an easy proposition. Away matches in MLS are always difficult because your routine is a bit messed up. You don’t get to sleep in your own bed, the climate is different, and in L.A. you’re kicking off when you are usually going to bed. The Lions need to overcome all of those elements to maximize their chances.
Of course, not all the intangibles are against the Lions. The Galaxy have struggled to start the season, and a team can press too much when looking for a win in front of the home fans. Additionally, the Galaxy are playing in Concacaf Champions Cup, with their next match three days later on Tuesday night against Tigres UANL. Hopefully they’ll be keeping an eye on minutes played for their starters in anticipation of the Champions Cup match.
That is what I will be looking for Saturday night. Let me know your thoughts in the comments below. Vamos Orlando!
Lion Links
Lion Links: 3/27/25
Marco Pasalic wins Goal of the Matchday, Orlando Pride members join U.S. U-23 camp, Orlando City B beats Crown Legacy FC, and more.

We’re another day closer to what should be an awesome Saturday, with both Orlando City and the Orlando Pride in action. All three of Orlando’s soccer teams have been doing well lately, which is not something we can say too often. Hopefully that trend continues this weekend and beyond. Let’s get to today’s links!
Marco Pasalic Wins MLS Goal of the Matchday
An Orlando City player has won MLS Goal of the Matchday for the first time this season, with Marco Pasalic claiming the award for his strike against D.C. United. The goal was a real team effort from the Lions, as all three Designated Players linked up to get the ball up the field in a hurry for a counter. Pasalic did well to create space and then curl the ball into the back of the net from distance. His goal garnered 64.7% of the vote, beating out goals from Daniel Rios, David Martinez, and Deandre Kerr. In his first year as a Lion, the Croatian winger has already recorded four goals and an assist so far.
Pride’s Zara Chavoshi and Yolanda Thomas Join U.S. U-23 Camp
Orlando Pride defender Zara Chavoshi was called up for the first U-23 United States Women’s National Team training camp of the year, which will run alongside the senior team’s camp in California. The 22-year-old, who was signed by the Pride directly out of college after four years at Wake Forest, will develop her game at the camp alongside other promising young defenders like Savy King, Gisele Thompson, and Eva Gaetino. Orlando Pride Assistant Coach Yolanda Thomas will also be in attendance as an assistant coach at the camp, and it’s great to see her get this opportunity.
Orlando City B Defeats Crown Legacy FC on the Road
Orlando City B won its first road match of the 2025 season, beating Crown Legacy FC 1-0 to extend its unbeaten run to three games (2-0-1). The Young Lions didn’t make things easy on themselves by not converting some solid opportunities to extend their lead, but they ultimately held on to secure all three points. Orlando is now tied at the top of the Eastern Conference standings with New York City FC II with eight points from three matches. OCB’s next match will be a road game against Chattanooga FC on April 5.
Say Hello to Boston Legacy FC
Boston’s NWSL team has rebranded itself as Boston Legacy FC, which is leagues better than BOS Nation FC. The team initially went with that anagram of Bostonian as its name back in October as part of a brand launch that also included a widely criticized marketing campaign involving the slogan “Too Many Balls.” While I’m not crazy about the name, the team deserves credit for not defaulting to something too generic after whiffing on its first swing. The Boston Legacy will take the field for the first time next year as the NWSL’s 16th team.
Free kicks
- Pride midfielder Angelina was called up by Brazil for its friendlies against the United States in California on April 5 and April 8.
- The Pride were well represented in CBS Sports‘ NWSL Team of the Week, with Anna Moorhouse, Rafaelle, Ally Watt, and Barbra Banda all receiving praise for the team’s 2-0 win over NJ/NY Gotham FC.
- From the third round on, every single match of the U.S. Open Cup will be streamed on Paramount+.
- Federal Finance, a development group based in Orlando, proposed plans for a soccer-specific stadium in Winter Garden.
- Bayern Munich winger Alphonso Davies will undergo surgery after tearing his ACL in Canada’s third-place victory over the U.S. in the Concacaf Nations League.
- Alessia Russo had a brace in Arsenal’s 3-0 win over Real Madrid in the UEFA Women’s Champions League. It was just enough for Arsenal to advance on aggregate to the semifinals, where the Gunners will square off against a Lyon side that beat Bayern 4-1 thanks to two goals and an assist from Kadidiatou Diani.
- Despite a 2-1 win against North Korea earlier this week in World Cup qualifying, the United Arab Emirates fired Paul Bento as head coach.
That’s all I have for you this fine Thursday. I hope you all have a terrific day and rest of your week!
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