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Is Luis Muriel Who We Thought He Would Be?

A thorough investigation into whether Luis Muriel has underperformed or if fans just need some dissuasion.

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1 year ago

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

Winston Churchill famously evaluated what Russia would do during World War II by saying, “I cannot forecast to you the action of Russia. It is a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma, but perhaps there is a key.” In the grand scheme of things, the performance of one player on Orlando City’s 2024 squad is slightly less important than what Great Britain’s prime minister was discussing, I think, but when analyzing Luis Muriel and how his season has gone thus far, I continue to come back to the same question: is Luis Muriel underperforming expectations or were our expectations never correct in the first place?

Let’s get right into it — Muriel’s traditional stats thus far this season do not look fantastic for a striker (though it must be said that his post-goal dance on Saturday, dubbed “The Muriel” on this week’s episode of The Mane Land PawedCast, did look fantastic). Here is a chart, using data from fbref.com in collaboration with Opta, that shows some of his 2024 stats, their rank in MLS, and their rank on Orlando City (for some of these metrics I included a qualifier of number of attempts and chose 19 as the minimum, because for many teams that would mean a player had averaged at least one attempt per game in that category):

For a player who is, according to the MLS Players Salary Guide, the 12th-highest paid player in MLS, you would like to see a lot of those ranks closer to the top 10 or 20 in the league than what you see in that chart. For a player who is by far the highest paid on Orlando City’s 2024 team, and is the second highest-paid player ever for Orlando City (Kaká was the highest paid), you would like to see him leading the team in at least one of those categories, if not several.

The bottom two in particular stand out to me, as there are 125 MLS players who have taken at least 19 shots this season, and Muriel ranks 113th on that list in distance from the goal and 92nd in getting his shots on target, meaning he is shooting from farther away than nearly all high-volume shooters, and he is getting his shots on goal less often than most. In fact, his shot profile shows that he is taking a higher percentage of shots from 25+ yards away from the goal (dark purple section below) than any of his teammates are taking from 19+ yards away from the goal (dark purple + light purple sections), and he is taking nearly 70% of all of his shots from outside of the 18.

Now, were he putting these shots on goal — or, even better, in the goal — then nobody would care about where he was shooting from, but when you have three goals all year and 69% of your shots are not on target, then heads are going to shake, shake, shake, shake like a song by the Ying Yang Twins and Pitbull. But this is where I think a step back is needed, because if fans were expecting Muriel to come in and perform as a traditional striker or No. 9, then they were misreading his historical performance and his strengths as a player.

When you look at Muriel’s season-by-season statistics, two seasons jump out that would seem to contradict what I just wrote, and those are his 2019-2020 and 2020-2021 seasons, when he scored 18 and 22 goals, respectively.

“That seems like a lot of goals for someone you say is not a traditional striker, Andrew.”

Well, yes, but 11 of those 40 goals were from free kicks (which definitely takes skill, but skill that is not unique to a striker), and two were rebounds that fell to him inside the six-yard box, and while I do not generally love the statistic called xG (expected goals), it can be useful in some contexts, and those two rebounds both fell to Muriel in a location where a goal was expected 82% and 85% of the time. It’s almost so easy a caveman could do it.

So, either we are left with 27 of his goals (excluding 11 free kicks + two rebounds) or 29 of his goals (excluding only the 11 free kicks) that came from open play during those two high-scoring years — an average of 14.5 or 13.5 a season. Those are definitely good numbers, especially in a highly rated league like Serie A, but they are still also outliers when compared to his goals/year during most of his career.

Looking at his seasons from 2010-2011 through 2022-2023, excluding the two big seasons discussed above, Muriel averaged six non-penalty-kick goals per season. He scored those goals in Italy’s Serie A or Spain’s La Liga, top leagues, but six goals/year is not an amount generally associated with big-time strikers. To assume he would all of a sudden become a major goal scorer in the latter stages of his career just because he is joining a league rated lower than the one where he played previously is a bit of a stretch, and may be an unfair expectation by us as fans.

The other part I want to focus on that I think may be underappreciated by fans is all of the non-scoring contributions that Muriel has made during his time on the field. Yes, in the end the only stats that actually matter are goals and wins, and there have not been a lot of either thus far this season, but no single player is primarily responsible for that, even if they are a highly paid Designated Player.

A lot of the issues Orlando City has had this year are due to geometry (there will always be math when I write) and how the Lions’ shape needs to be in order to get the most out of the players on this year’s team. There are quite a lot of overlapping skills and overlapping places where players like to receive the ball, and that has frequently led to spacing issues on the field with creative players all wanting to go and get the ball in the same location at the same time.

Muriel, unlike many of his teammates, is a two-footed player and thus able to attack from anywhere on the field and in any direction, allowing him to create open spaces to play the ball all over the attacking third of the field. While this can get him into trouble (see: shots from very long range), he also has used this ability to be one of the more active and dangerous players in all of MLS when he has the ball:

As an aside, the last row there is interesting to me because Muriel ranks 16th in all of MLS, yet third on Orlando City (behind Nico Lodeiro in third overall and Facundo Torres in 15th overall). The Crew have two players in the top 16 as well, and every other player in the top 16 is the only one on his respective team. I am not sure whether Orlando City having three near the top is an example of an unselfish team that is comfortable playing the ball among playmakers or reflects a team that does not have the pecking order set, and thus it becomes a little of “my turn, your turn” type offense.

Last season, there was a clear order in that Torres led the team and was 25th in MLS, and the next-highest-ranking players were Martín Ojeda in 57th and Mauricio Pereyra in 79th. Is this something? I think it is still too early to tell, but removing own goals, Orlando City players scored 1.59 goals/game in 2023 and thus far this season they are only scoring 1.16 goals/game, and I believe that the lack of a defined primary creator is one of several contributing factors to the lower-scoring output this season.

Back to Muriel and that chart above, his talent and skill clearly shows in how he is able to thread passes into dangerous areas and create shots at a rate that puts him among the leaders in all of MLS. His dribbling ability, reflected in the progressive carry percentage, shows that he is moving the ball at least 10 yards forward towards the goal 12.7% of the time he dribbles the ball in the offensive half of the field. This puts the defense under pressure, because he is building up a head of steam and coming at pace, and since he is also completing approximately 80% of his short passes (0-15 yards) thus far this season, and completing many of those into the 18, he is a constant threat once he has the ball.

As I mentioned before, Muriel is a two-footed player (Opta’s tracking has the foot used for 83 Muriel goals — 22 were left foot and 61 were right foot, an impressive mix), so he is a player who can go left or right, is accurate with his passes in tight spaces, creates shooting opportunities for his teammates, and wants the ball at all times. These are all qualities you want in an attacking player, especially one as proficient as Muriel is in them.

So we return to the riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma — a player with clear skill and pedigree who is contributing offensively but is not putting up the counting stats fans thought he would, even though he never really did aside from two outlier years. As much as I like to be more glass-half-full than half-empty, I do feel like Muriel should have contributed more goals by this point in the season, but unlike what the fan sitting next to me said during Saturday’s game, I do not think he is massively underperforming either.

In the end, I think Muriel’s performance thus far has been kind of like where we frequently see him on the field, more in the middle than in the front.

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Opinion

Four Games I Have Circled on Orlando City’s 2026 Schedule

Let’s have a peek at some games that I’m really looking forward to in 2026.

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1 day ago

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December 5, 2025

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

Orlando City’s 2026 schedule has been out for a little over two weeks now, and I’ve had ample time to look over it, analyze it, and zero in on some games that I’m really looking forward to next year. There are always the usual suspects in the mix like home rivalry matches against the likes of Atlanta and Miami, but I didn’t want to focus on those obvious ones, so they won’t be included here.

Saturday, Feb. 21 vs. New York Red Bulls

Orlando City’s streak of playing a home match to open the season will somehow reach 12 seasons in a row when the Lions kick off the 2026 season against the New York Red Bulls. It’ll be our first chance to see OCSC in a competitive game during the new season, and after an off-season that will likely contain a fair amount of turnover, I for one will be even more anxious than usual to get a look at what sort of product we’ll be seeing on the field. The Red Bulls will also look different, as they’ll have a new manager and a good amount of new players after missing the postseason for the first time since 2009. This is probably my most obvious choice of the bunch, but I think it’s hard to fault me for being excited about a new season!

TBD U.S. Open Cup Match

There’s only a 50% chance that this will be a home game, but personally I’m just glad to see Orlando City in the U.S. Open Cup again. There’s obviously some good history with the club in the competition, but aside from that, I just generally think that the tournament should get more love and a bigger platform than it currently does. While I’d have obviously been thrilled if OCSC had managed to win Leagues Cup in 2025 and come away with a trophy, I’d have much preferred the Lions to make a deep run in the Open Cup, considering the rich history of the competition as a whole, in addition to what it means to Orlando specifically. The fact that defending champion Nashville SC isn’t in the field is mind boggling to me, but I’m damn happy that the Lions are.

Saturday, Sept. 12 vs. Toronto FC

Now I can understand why you might be surprised by this one, as Toronto isn’t exactly considered one of Orlando City’s rivals. This year’s Decision Day match left a bad taste in my mouth though. Was it less about what Toronto did on the field, and more about OCSC basically neglecting to show up to the field to begin with? Maybe. Do I care? No. Do I want vengeance and the ability to erase a pitiful performance from my mind all in one fell swoop? Absolutely. I need the scales to be balanced and for my own personal demons from the final day of the season to be exorcised, and the fact that I’ll be able to be in the stands to have that chance is all the more appealing.

Saturday, Nov. 7 vs. New England Revolution

Decision Day is (usually) a fun affair regardless of whether the match is home or away. Wild swings in the standings from minute to minute, nerves, and hopefully reason to celebrate when it’s all over. There’s just something about having all that happen at home, though. I’ve been in The Wall for plenty of Decision Days at this point, and the energy is just a little different than a normal regular-season game. Similar to home openers, the air almost crackles with the excitement of possibility and anticipation of what things are going to look like when the dust settles. Of course, there’s always the possibility of things going wrong and the Lions ending up low in the playoff standings or out of the postseason altogether, but we’ll cross that bridge if/when we come to it.

What games are you especially looking forward to next season? Be sure to let us know down in the comments. Vamos Orlando!

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Lion Links

Lion Links: 12/5/25

Format for 2025 U.S. Open Cup revealed, Orlando Pride players land on top 100 list, Bay FC hires Emma Coates, and more.

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1 day ago

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December 5, 2025

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Image courtesy of Orlando Pride / Jeremy Reper

Happy Friday! We’ve already made it to the first weekend of December, which is either good news or a worrying reminder that less than four weeks remain of 2025. I’ll be spending the next few days working and getting some more shopping done, but I’m hoping to enjoy some rest and relaxation along the way. Let’s dive into today’s links from around the soccer world!

U.S. Open Cup Format Shrinks for 2026

The layout for next year’s Lamar Hunt U.S. Open Cup was announced and Orlando City will once again be participating. Orlando is one of 16 MLS teams in the tournament, which has been reduced to just seven rounds instead of eight. As a result, only 48 professional teams from around the country will be included and MLS teams join the fray in the round of 32. Orlando City and FC Naples are the only professional Floridian teams taking part next year and it will be weird not seeing the Lions beat the brakes off of the Tampa Bay Rowdies. Also, FC America CFL Spurs, which is based in Orlando, is one of three amateur sides from Florida to keep an eye out for when the first round kicks off in March.

Orlando Pride Trio Make Guardian’s Top 100 Players List

The Guardian released its annual list of the top 100 women’s soccer players in the world and Orlando Pride stars Barbra Banda, Marta, and Jacquie Ovalle all made an appearance on it. Banda was 14th and only second to Temwa Chawinga, who placed sixth, among NWSL players on this year’s list. Marta isn’t far behind in 19th, which is eight spots higher than last year. Ovalle’s still settling in with Orlando after dominating with Tigres and was 94th on the list.

For the data addicts out there, you can see how voting for this list shook out, but it’s not much of a surprise at this point that the judges valued players plying their trade in Europe highly. Of the Americans listed, Arsenal’s Emily Fox and OL Lyonnes’ Lindsey Heaps were ranked the highest at 24th and 27th, respectively. The Kansas City Current had one of the best seasons in NWSL history, but only four players made the list and Chawinga is the only one in the top 50. Still, it’s cool to keep up with some of the biggest names across the pond, especially with a Women’s World Cup on the horizon.

Bay FC Hires Emma Coates as Head Coach

Bay FC announced Emma Coates as its next head coach, with Gemma Davies joining as an assistant coach. Coates has been the manager of England’s U-23 team since 2023, developing players for the senior team while excelling in the U-23 European League. She and Davies were part of England’s extended technical staff for the past two Euros and the 2023 World Cup. Bay FC missed the playoffs this year and finished the season on an 11-game winless streak, so Coates will have her work cut out for her in regards to turning things around.

NWSLPA Files Grievance Against the League

The NWSL rejected a contract offer by the Washington Spirit to Trinity Rodman and the NWSL Players’ Association has filed a grievance with the league, alleging that the denial violates the collective bargaining agreement.

“Trinity Rodman agreed to a compensation structure in good faith that would allow her to remain loyal to her first professional club, consistent with both the CBA and NWSL Competition Rules,” union executive director Meghann Burke said in a statement provided to The Associated Press on Thursday. “The NWSLPA has challenged the League’s rejection of this agreement on the grounds that it violates her free agency rights, but this isn’t about Trinity Rodman. If NWSL can deny her free agency rights, they can deny anyone’s. The NWSLPA will not allow it.”

The deal offered by the Spirit is reportedly for four years, with backloaded compensation for 2028 and 2029. Rodman is a free agent after five seasons with the Spirit and there’s worry that she will be the latest young American to leave the NWSL for Europe. The league’s position in rejecting the deal was that the offer violated the spirit of the NWSL salary cap.

Free Kicks

  • Here’s a preview of Saturday’s MLS Cup final between the Vancouver Whitecaps and Inter Miami. From the star players to the unsung heroes, it should be a good match to end the MLS season.
  • Hugo Lloris signed a contract extension with LAFC through 2026, with an option for 2027. The 38-year-old has made 91 appearances across all competitions for LAFC since joining the club.
  • The North Carolina Courage have signed forward Ally Schlegel to a three-year contract. Schlegel scored eight goals for the Chicago Stars during the 2025 season.
  • NJ/NY Gotham FC announced its end-of-season roster decisions and forward Ella Stevens is a free agent and not re-signing with the club. Midge Purce is also a free agent, but she and Gotham are in negotiations for her return.

That’s all I have for you this time around. I hope you all have a fantastic Friday and rest of your weekend!

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Lion Links

Lion Links: 12/4/25

Haley Carter joins the Washington Spirit, Celtic hires Wilfried Nancy, Philadelphia Union sign Ezekiel Allodah, and more.

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2 days ago

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December 4, 2025

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

How’s it going, Mane Landers? It’s been a bit of a hectic week for me, but I’ve at least been able to get quite enough done that should take out some of the stress that usually comes around this time of the year.

Haley Carter Joins the Enemy

Haley Carter, who departed the Pride on Nov. 18 to pursue new career opportunities, was announced as the Washington Spirit’s president of soccer operations. She joins an organization that’s come up short in the past two NWSL Championship and one of Carter’s top priorities will be retaining American forward Trinity Rodman. Helping the Spirit get over the hump will be a different kind of task than the rebuild she orchestrated with the Pride, so it will be interesting to see how she does.

Celtic Hires Wilfried Nancy

Wilfried Nancy is officially headed to Europe, with Celtic hiring him as its next manager. The Scottish club signed him to a two-and-a-half year contract and he’ll start today. Nancy leaves MLS after success with CF Montreal and the Columbus Crew, winning the MLS Coach of the Year award with the Crew in 2024. Celtic has won its past five games across all competitions and is currently tied on points with Hearts at the top of the Scottish Premiership. It will be Nancy’s first time coaching in Europe and we’ll see if he can help Celtic secure a spot in the next round of the Europa League.

Philadelphia Union Sign Ezekiel Allodah

The Philadelphia Union didn’t waste much time adding some firepower to the club’s roster for the 2026 season, signing Ezekiel Allodah from IF Brommapojkarna for a club record fee. The 20-year-old forward joins on a contract through 2028 with options for 2029 and 2030. Allodah has recorded eight goals and added an assist in 32 appearances with Brommapojkarna, which plays in Sweden’s top flight. Although I’m not looking forward to Orlando City having to deal with him on the field, it’s nice to see more young talent coming to the league.

Preparing for the World Cup Draw

The draw for next summer’s World Cup is on Friday and we’ll get to see just how unlucky the United States Men’s National Team is when the groups are revealed. The U.S., like Canada and Mexico, is in the first pot and gets to avoid some of the biggest contenders, but dangerous teams like Croatia, Morocco, and Norway are possible opponents. Drawing Ghana from the fourth pot seems inevitable to me. The lack of clarity in who will advance out of the playoffs adds some mystery and worry to it all as well. Fingers crossed!

Free Kicks

That’s all I have for you all this time around. I hope you all have a wonderful Thursday and rest of your week!

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