Orlando City
Is Luis Muriel Who We Thought He Would Be?
A thorough investigation into whether Luis Muriel has underperformed or if fans just need some dissuasion.
Winston Churchill famously evaluated what Russia would do during World War II by saying, “I cannot forecast to you the action of Russia. It is a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma, but perhaps there is a key.” In the grand scheme of things, the performance of one player on Orlando City’s 2024 squad is slightly less important than what Great Britain’s prime minister was discussing, I think, but when analyzing Luis Muriel and how his season has gone thus far, I continue to come back to the same question: is Luis Muriel underperforming expectations or were our expectations never correct in the first place?
Let’s get right into it — Muriel’s traditional stats thus far this season do not look fantastic for a striker (though it must be said that his post-goal dance on Saturday, dubbed “The Muriel” on this week’s episode of The Mane Land PawedCast, did look fantastic). Here is a chart, using data from fbref.com in collaboration with Opta, that shows some of his 2024 stats, their rank in MLS, and their rank on Orlando City (for some of these metrics I included a qualifier of number of attempts and chose 19 as the minimum, because for many teams that would mean a player had averaged at least one attempt per game in that category):

For a player who is, according to the MLS Players Salary Guide, the 12th-highest paid player in MLS, you would like to see a lot of those ranks closer to the top 10 or 20 in the league than what you see in that chart. For a player who is by far the highest paid on Orlando City’s 2024 team, and is the second highest-paid player ever for Orlando City (Kaká was the highest paid), you would like to see him leading the team in at least one of those categories, if not several.
The bottom two in particular stand out to me, as there are 125 MLS players who have taken at least 19 shots this season, and Muriel ranks 113th on that list in distance from the goal and 92nd in getting his shots on target, meaning he is shooting from farther away than nearly all high-volume shooters, and he is getting his shots on goal less often than most. In fact, his shot profile shows that he is taking a higher percentage of shots from 25+ yards away from the goal (dark purple section below) than any of his teammates are taking from 19+ yards away from the goal (dark purple + light purple sections), and he is taking nearly 70% of all of his shots from outside of the 18.

Now, were he putting these shots on goal — or, even better, in the goal — then nobody would care about where he was shooting from, but when you have three goals all year and 69% of your shots are not on target, then heads are going to shake, shake, shake, shake like a song by the Ying Yang Twins and Pitbull. But this is where I think a step back is needed, because if fans were expecting Muriel to come in and perform as a traditional striker or No. 9, then they were misreading his historical performance and his strengths as a player.
When you look at Muriel’s season-by-season statistics, two seasons jump out that would seem to contradict what I just wrote, and those are his 2019-2020 and 2020-2021 seasons, when he scored 18 and 22 goals, respectively.
“That seems like a lot of goals for someone you say is not a traditional striker, Andrew.”
Well, yes, but 11 of those 40 goals were from free kicks (which definitely takes skill, but skill that is not unique to a striker), and two were rebounds that fell to him inside the six-yard box, and while I do not generally love the statistic called xG (expected goals), it can be useful in some contexts, and those two rebounds both fell to Muriel in a location where a goal was expected 82% and 85% of the time. It’s almost so easy a caveman could do it.
So, either we are left with 27 of his goals (excluding 11 free kicks + two rebounds) or 29 of his goals (excluding only the 11 free kicks) that came from open play during those two high-scoring years — an average of 14.5 or 13.5 a season. Those are definitely good numbers, especially in a highly rated league like Serie A, but they are still also outliers when compared to his goals/year during most of his career.
Looking at his seasons from 2010-2011 through 2022-2023, excluding the two big seasons discussed above, Muriel averaged six non-penalty-kick goals per season. He scored those goals in Italy’s Serie A or Spain’s La Liga, top leagues, but six goals/year is not an amount generally associated with big-time strikers. To assume he would all of a sudden become a major goal scorer in the latter stages of his career just because he is joining a league rated lower than the one where he played previously is a bit of a stretch, and may be an unfair expectation by us as fans.
The other part I want to focus on that I think may be underappreciated by fans is all of the non-scoring contributions that Muriel has made during his time on the field. Yes, in the end the only stats that actually matter are goals and wins, and there have not been a lot of either thus far this season, but no single player is primarily responsible for that, even if they are a highly paid Designated Player.
A lot of the issues Orlando City has had this year are due to geometry (there will always be math when I write) and how the Lions’ shape needs to be in order to get the most out of the players on this year’s team. There are quite a lot of overlapping skills and overlapping places where players like to receive the ball, and that has frequently led to spacing issues on the field with creative players all wanting to go and get the ball in the same location at the same time.
Muriel, unlike many of his teammates, is a two-footed player and thus able to attack from anywhere on the field and in any direction, allowing him to create open spaces to play the ball all over the attacking third of the field. While this can get him into trouble (see: shots from very long range), he also has used this ability to be one of the more active and dangerous players in all of MLS when he has the ball:

As an aside, the last row there is interesting to me because Muriel ranks 16th in all of MLS, yet third on Orlando City (behind Nico Lodeiro in third overall and Facundo Torres in 15th overall). The Crew have two players in the top 16 as well, and every other player in the top 16 is the only one on his respective team. I am not sure whether Orlando City having three near the top is an example of an unselfish team that is comfortable playing the ball among playmakers or reflects a team that does not have the pecking order set, and thus it becomes a little of “my turn, your turn” type offense.
Last season, there was a clear order in that Torres led the team and was 25th in MLS, and the next-highest-ranking players were Martín Ojeda in 57th and Mauricio Pereyra in 79th. Is this something? I think it is still too early to tell, but removing own goals, Orlando City players scored 1.59 goals/game in 2023 and thus far this season they are only scoring 1.16 goals/game, and I believe that the lack of a defined primary creator is one of several contributing factors to the lower-scoring output this season.
Back to Muriel and that chart above, his talent and skill clearly shows in how he is able to thread passes into dangerous areas and create shots at a rate that puts him among the leaders in all of MLS. His dribbling ability, reflected in the progressive carry percentage, shows that he is moving the ball at least 10 yards forward towards the goal 12.7% of the time he dribbles the ball in the offensive half of the field. This puts the defense under pressure, because he is building up a head of steam and coming at pace, and since he is also completing approximately 80% of his short passes (0-15 yards) thus far this season, and completing many of those into the 18, he is a constant threat once he has the ball.
As I mentioned before, Muriel is a two-footed player (Opta’s tracking has the foot used for 83 Muriel goals — 22 were left foot and 61 were right foot, an impressive mix), so he is a player who can go left or right, is accurate with his passes in tight spaces, creates shooting opportunities for his teammates, and wants the ball at all times. These are all qualities you want in an attacking player, especially one as proficient as Muriel is in them.
So we return to the riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma — a player with clear skill and pedigree who is contributing offensively but is not putting up the counting stats fans thought he would, even though he never really did aside from two outlier years. As much as I like to be more glass-half-full than half-empty, I do feel like Muriel should have contributed more goals by this point in the season, but unlike what the fan sitting next to me said during Saturday’s game, I do not think he is massively underperforming either.
In the end, I think Muriel’s performance thus far has been kind of like where we frequently see him on the field, more in the middle than in the front.
Lion Links
Lion Links: 3/13/26
Orlando Pride prepare for 2026 season opener, NWSL power rankings, Guro Reiten joins Gotham FC, and more.
Happy Friday, Mane Landers! I’ve spent most of my free time this week getting some needed spring cleaning done before the weekend gets here. Kicking up dust while also dealing with all the pollen when I go outside probably wasn’t the smartest idea, but it’s nice to be productive. Let’s get to the links!
Orlando Pride Prepare for Season Opener
The Orlando Pride are set to return to action on Sunday against the Seattle Reign in what should be an exciting season opener. It will be a rematch of last year’s quarterfinal between the two, which the Pride won 2-0 thanks to a strong defensive performance and goals from Haley McCutcheon and Luana. Head Coach Seb Hines spoke on how the team’s preparations for the season have gone, as well as the expectations to fight for titles after failing to win silverware last year.
NWSL Power Rankings Ahead of 2026 Season
The Orlando Pride placed fifth in All For XI‘s NWSL power rankings before the start of the season. It’s a pretty fair ranking for the Pride in my opinion, as they were inconsistent last year but still managed to reach the semifinals in the playoffs. Whether or not they can stake a claim as a title contender may hinge on how well Jacquie Ovalle does now that she’s had time to settle in this preseason.
The Kansas City Current top the rankings, with defending champion Gotham FC in second and the Washington Spirit third. As for the new teams on the block, the Boston Legacy are down in 15th while the Denver Summit are in 10th. It should be an interesting season and I can’t wait for it to start tonight when the Spirit and Portland Thorns square off at 8 p.m.
NWSL Transfer News Roundup
The NWSL season is here, but teams are still bringing in some firepower to their rosters before things get underway. Gotham added Norwegian forward Guro Reiten on loan from Chelsea and she will join the club as a free agent once the loan expires, with that deal lasting through 2029. Reiten has been a force in England, recording 59 goals and 44 assists across 207 appearances and helping Chelsea win six Women’s Super League titles.
The Chicago Stars also strengthened their attack, sending $300,000 in transfer funds and $200,000 in allocation money to the Reign in exchange for forward Jordyn Huitema. The 24-year-old joins on a contract through 2028 and gives the rebuilding Stars an aerial threat to help fill the void left by Ally Schlegel leaving for the North Carolina Courage.
European Title Races to Watch Out For
While it may not be crunch time just yet for clubs in contention, it’s a great time to check in on how title races are shaping up across Europe. While it may take some intriguing results in Germany, Italy, and Spain for things to get interesting, the United Kingdom is rife with drama to look forward to. Celtic and Rangers are usually the contenders in the Scottish Premiership, but it’s Hearts that has a five-point lead with plenty to go. In the English Premier League, the title race between Arsenal and Manchester City may end up being dwarfed by a relegation fight involving Tottenham, Nottingham Forest, and West Ham. Wrexham is right in the thick of a tight battle for promotion as well. Don’t sleep on the title race in France either, as Lens is hanging around just one point behind Paris Saint-Germain at the top of the Ligue 1 table.
Free Kicks
- The Portland Timbers signed 23-year-old midfielder Jose Caicedo from Pumas, inking him to a deal through the 2029-2030 season.
- The Columbus Crew traded Nigerian forward Aliyu Ibrahim to the Houston Dynamo in exchange for $250,000 in General Allocation Money, with another $500,000 headed their way if certain conditions are met.
- Mexican goalkeeper Luis Angel Malagon will miss out on the World Cup due to the injury he sustained in Club America’s win over the Philadelphia Union in the Concacaf Champions Cup.
- Chelsea winger Pedro Neto was issued a one-game ban for shoving a ball boy in his team’s 5-2 loss to PSG in the UEFA Champions League.
- Aston Villa and Porto won the first legs of their matchups in the Europa League’s round of 16. Meanwhile, Nottingham Forest fell 1-0 to Midtjylland and Roma and Bologna fought to a 1-1 draw.
That’s all I have for you this time around. I hope you all have a fantastic Friday and rest of your weekend!
Orlando City
Point Blank: Orlando City Cannot Afford Another Empty Night
A look at the recent history of MLS teams that started 0-3-0, and the uphill battle Orlando City will have to fight if it starts 0-4-0.
The idea of this article is to make a point about points, because if Orlando City is not going to earn any, then at least we can write about it. The Lions are off to the worst start in club history after three games, with zero points earned after losses to the New York Red Bulls, Inter Miami, and New York City FC. The good news is that those three teams occupy places one, three and four in the Eastern Conference standings, so perhaps Orlando City was just dealt a difficult schedule to start the season, but those of us with eyes know the Lions simply have not played well for the majority of the three games.
The MLS regular-season schedule contains 34 games, so some quick math tells us that 91% of the season still remains to be played. The playoff structure for MLS is also incredibly forgiving, as 18 of the league’s 30 teams qualify for the postseason, and 16 of those 18 are guaranteed at least one home game. Plenty of teams over the years have gotten hot late to secure a playoff spot, or like Orlando City during the 2023 season, to go from a low playoff seed to a top one by winning nine of its final 12 games.
There is still plenty of season left, but while teams can and do get hot late, it is rare that they do after struggling mightily during their first three games. I took a look at the last three seasons, the only ones in which nine teams qualified for the playoffs in each conference, and the table below shows how many points each of the 54 playoff teams had earned after the first three games.
| Points After Three Matches | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| 3 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
| 4 | 2 | 5 | 6 |
| 5 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 6 | 4 | 1 | 3 |
| 7 | 4 | 7 | 3 |
| 8 (cannot happen, because math) | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Avg. Points by Playoff Teams | 4.7 | 4.9 | 5.2 |
Only two of the 54 playoff teams went winless during their first three games (Charlotte in 2023 and NYCFC in 2024), and in each subsequent year the overall average points earned by playoff teams during their first three games increased. Orlando City is one of four teams in MLS that have yet to earn one point, though New England has only played two games due to one being postponed because winter storms delayed the delivery of the club’s new grass field.
The Lions will be fighting an uphill battle to become the third team to qualify for the playoffs after starting with three straight losses, but if they win this week’s game against CF Montréal, that would put them on the same trajectory as the aforementioned 2023 Charlotte and 2024 NYCFC teams, as both won the fourth games of their season on the way to turning their seasons around and eventually qualifying for the playoffs.
What that means, however, is that since the league moved to this new playoff format no team has started the season with four straight losses and made the playoffs. It is always cool to be the first to do something, but I think it would be much cooler if the Lions would go out and deliver a resounding — some might say impactful (think about it) — thrashing to the Canadian club.
If they were to defeat Montréal by at least two goals, they would jump over them in the standings, guaranteeing themselves to no longer be dead last in the entire league, which is where they currently sit. It will be weird to root against Dagur Dan Thórhallsson, and to a lesser extent Luca Petrasso, but I will be passionately rooting against players with “sso” in their last names on Saturday, unless Robin Jansson comes out of the tunnel like Willis Reed (timely reference) to help the Orlando City defense actually be fence-like and prevent some goals.
The early results from playoff teams from last three seasons will not have any bearing on whether Orlando City can turn its season around and make the playoffs for a league-leading seventh consecutive season, but it is instructive on how difficult it is to dig yourself out of a hole. Two teams were able to turn it around and make the playoffs, but eight teams (two in 2023, three in 2024, and three in 2025) started with three straight losses and finished the season out of the playoffs.
We will not know the fate of Orlando City’s playoff hopes until much later in the season, but we will know its fate against Montréal in just a few days. Hopefully at game’s end the Lions will have a one in the win column. Or, at least in the draw column, but preferably in the win column.
It is always the darkest before dawn, and with six straight losses dating back to last season, it is pretty much pitch black around Orlando City right now. I’d say that makes this weekend the perfect time for the Lions to execute a three-point turn.
Vamos Orlando!
Orlando City
Orlando City vs. CF Montreal: Three Keys to Victory
What do the Lions need to do to earn all three points against CF Montreal this weekend?
Orlando City returns to Inter&Co Stadium to take on CF Montreal after parting ways with Oscar Pareja on Wednesday. Martin Perelman will call the shots Saturday night as the interim head coach. Orlando City is still looking to earn its first points of the season after three straight losses. This is a club in turmoil looking to stop the bleeding of a horrible start to the season. What must Orlando City do to earn all three points — or even a single point — against Montreal Saturday night?
Enter Otero
Javier Otero was pressed into service early in the match against New York City FC thanks to Maxime Crepeau’s dumb mistake. That — and the five goals that followed — was not something he was expecting when he sat down on the bench. That cannot be his excuse this week. Otero will get full reps as the starter all week. He will know that he is getting the start and should mentally prepare.
Otero will need to be better this week, and that should be easy enough to do at home with a full squad in front of him. I’m not saying he needs to be Pedro Gallese, but he does need to make smart decisions, be careful with his distribution, and not be the reason the Lions lose. If he would like to have the best performance of his professional career, it is a perfect time to do so.
Full Team Defense
For weeks I’ve spouted off about the Lions needing the players on the back line and defensive midfielders to step up. I should have been more specific. I need them to do so for the entire 90 minutes plus stoppage time. It is evident how much this team is missing Robin Jansson and Wilder Cartagena.
In what I’ll describe as “good news,” Orlando City gets Colin Guske back after serving his red card suspension last week. I would like to see a center back pairing of Nolan Miller with Iago. David Brekalo has not been good, so Perelman might as well go with even more youth behind Guske. If those two, along with Griffin Dorsey on the right and Adrian Marin on the left, start it still won’t be good enough.
At this point, I need 11 players lined up across the face of the goal to just block off the net. I know I’m being hyperbolic, but I think the Lions will need to play deeper and more defensive-minded if the club hopes to get a result. Attacking on the counter after absorbing shots for long spells isn’t what I would normally recommend, but aside from the Miami game, it hasn’t fully been tried out so far this season, so why not give it a shot. At the very least, I need everyone tracking back all night.
Smell the Coffee, Duncan!
My sister-in-law, who has down syndrome, loves to tell people to “smell the coffee” when she wants them to wake up or be more active. I’m not saying Duncan McGuire needs to be more active, but he could be more efficient. His lack of goals has not been totally his fault as some of his teammates aren’t anticipating his runs, but he hasn’t been his old self either.
Remember when he ended Michael Bradley’s career (or at least it felt like it)? I’d love to see some of that. I believe he just needs to score that first goal, celebrate with his signature flip, and he’ll be back to normal. That means he needs to be better at his hold-up game and better with the ball at his feet. Hopefully he’s had enough time with his teammates in training so they know what runs he will make. If Orlando City sits back and tries to hit on the counter or go route one, it will be important for him to be more efficient and “smell the coffee.”
I thought about using “divine intervention” as one of the keys, but even I thought that might be a little silly. Though I’m not opposed to anyone making an appeal to a higher power if that is something you think might work. Otherwise, the above is what I will be looking for Saturday night. Let me know your thoughts in the comments below. Vamos Orlando!
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