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Orlando City

Is Luis Muriel Who We Thought He Would Be?

A thorough investigation into whether Luis Muriel has underperformed or if fans just need some dissuasion.

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

Winston Churchill famously evaluated what Russia would do during World War II by saying, “I cannot forecast to you the action of Russia. It is a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma, but perhaps there is a key.” In the grand scheme of things, the performance of one player on Orlando City’s 2024 squad is slightly less important than what Great Britain’s prime minister was discussing, I think, but when analyzing Luis Muriel and how his season has gone thus far, I continue to come back to the same question: is Luis Muriel underperforming expectations or were our expectations never correct in the first place?

Let’s get right into it — Muriel’s traditional stats thus far this season do not look fantastic for a striker (though it must be said that his post-goal dance on Saturday, dubbed “The Muriel” on this week’s episode of The Mane Land PawedCast, did look fantastic). Here is a chart, using data from fbref.com in collaboration with Opta, that shows some of his 2024 stats, their rank in MLS, and their rank on Orlando City (for some of these metrics I included a qualifier of number of attempts and chose 19 as the minimum, because for many teams that would mean a player had averaged at least one attempt per game in that category):

For a player who is, according to the MLS Players Salary Guide, the 12th-highest paid player in MLS, you would like to see a lot of those ranks closer to the top 10 or 20 in the league than what you see in that chart. For a player who is by far the highest paid on Orlando City’s 2024 team, and is the second highest-paid player ever for Orlando City (Kaká was the highest paid), you would like to see him leading the team in at least one of those categories, if not several.

The bottom two in particular stand out to me, as there are 125 MLS players who have taken at least 19 shots this season, and Muriel ranks 113th on that list in distance from the goal and 92nd in getting his shots on target, meaning he is shooting from farther away than nearly all high-volume shooters, and he is getting his shots on goal less often than most. In fact, his shot profile shows that he is taking a higher percentage of shots from 25+ yards away from the goal (dark purple section below) than any of his teammates are taking from 19+ yards away from the goal (dark purple + light purple sections), and he is taking nearly 70% of all of his shots from outside of the 18.

Now, were he putting these shots on goal — or, even better, in the goal — then nobody would care about where he was shooting from, but when you have three goals all year and 69% of your shots are not on target, then heads are going to shake, shake, shake, shake like a song by the Ying Yang Twins and Pitbull. But this is where I think a step back is needed, because if fans were expecting Muriel to come in and perform as a traditional striker or No. 9, then they were misreading his historical performance and his strengths as a player.

When you look at Muriel’s season-by-season statistics, two seasons jump out that would seem to contradict what I just wrote, and those are his 2019-2020 and 2020-2021 seasons, when he scored 18 and 22 goals, respectively.

“That seems like a lot of goals for someone you say is not a traditional striker, Andrew.”

Well, yes, but 11 of those 40 goals were from free kicks (which definitely takes skill, but skill that is not unique to a striker), and two were rebounds that fell to him inside the six-yard box, and while I do not generally love the statistic called xG (expected goals), it can be useful in some contexts, and those two rebounds both fell to Muriel in a location where a goal was expected 82% and 85% of the time. It’s almost so easy a caveman could do it.

So, either we are left with 27 of his goals (excluding 11 free kicks + two rebounds) or 29 of his goals (excluding only the 11 free kicks) that came from open play during those two high-scoring years — an average of 14.5 or 13.5 a season. Those are definitely good numbers, especially in a highly rated league like Serie A, but they are still also outliers when compared to his goals/year during most of his career.

Looking at his seasons from 2010-2011 through 2022-2023, excluding the two big seasons discussed above, Muriel averaged six non-penalty-kick goals per season. He scored those goals in Italy’s Serie A or Spain’s La Liga, top leagues, but six goals/year is not an amount generally associated with big-time strikers. To assume he would all of a sudden become a major goal scorer in the latter stages of his career just because he is joining a league rated lower than the one where he played previously is a bit of a stretch, and may be an unfair expectation by us as fans.

The other part I want to focus on that I think may be underappreciated by fans is all of the non-scoring contributions that Muriel has made during his time on the field. Yes, in the end the only stats that actually matter are goals and wins, and there have not been a lot of either thus far this season, but no single player is primarily responsible for that, even if they are a highly paid Designated Player.

A lot of the issues Orlando City has had this year are due to geometry (there will always be math when I write) and how the Lions’ shape needs to be in order to get the most out of the players on this year’s team. There are quite a lot of overlapping skills and overlapping places where players like to receive the ball, and that has frequently led to spacing issues on the field with creative players all wanting to go and get the ball in the same location at the same time.

Muriel, unlike many of his teammates, is a two-footed player and thus able to attack from anywhere on the field and in any direction, allowing him to create open spaces to play the ball all over the attacking third of the field. While this can get him into trouble (see: shots from very long range), he also has used this ability to be one of the more active and dangerous players in all of MLS when he has the ball:

As an aside, the last row there is interesting to me because Muriel ranks 16th in all of MLS, yet third on Orlando City (behind Nico Lodeiro in third overall and Facundo Torres in 15th overall). The Crew have two players in the top 16 as well, and every other player in the top 16 is the only one on his respective team. I am not sure whether Orlando City having three near the top is an example of an unselfish team that is comfortable playing the ball among playmakers or reflects a team that does not have the pecking order set, and thus it becomes a little of “my turn, your turn” type offense.

Last season, there was a clear order in that Torres led the team and was 25th in MLS, and the next-highest-ranking players were Martín Ojeda in 57th and Mauricio Pereyra in 79th. Is this something? I think it is still too early to tell, but removing own goals, Orlando City players scored 1.59 goals/game in 2023 and thus far this season they are only scoring 1.16 goals/game, and I believe that the lack of a defined primary creator is one of several contributing factors to the lower-scoring output this season.

Back to Muriel and that chart above, his talent and skill clearly shows in how he is able to thread passes into dangerous areas and create shots at a rate that puts him among the leaders in all of MLS. His dribbling ability, reflected in the progressive carry percentage, shows that he is moving the ball at least 10 yards forward towards the goal 12.7% of the time he dribbles the ball in the offensive half of the field. This puts the defense under pressure, because he is building up a head of steam and coming at pace, and since he is also completing approximately 80% of his short passes (0-15 yards) thus far this season, and completing many of those into the 18, he is a constant threat once he has the ball.

As I mentioned before, Muriel is a two-footed player (Opta’s tracking has the foot used for 83 Muriel goals — 22 were left foot and 61 were right foot, an impressive mix), so he is a player who can go left or right, is accurate with his passes in tight spaces, creates shooting opportunities for his teammates, and wants the ball at all times. These are all qualities you want in an attacking player, especially one as proficient as Muriel is in them.

So we return to the riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma — a player with clear skill and pedigree who is contributing offensively but is not putting up the counting stats fans thought he would, even though he never really did aside from two outlier years. As much as I like to be more glass-half-full than half-empty, I do feel like Muriel should have contributed more goals by this point in the season, but unlike what the fan sitting next to me said during Saturday’s game, I do not think he is massively underperforming either.

In the end, I think Muriel’s performance thus far has been kind of like where we frequently see him on the field, more in the middle than in the front.

Orlando City

Orlando City vs. Charlotte FC: Three Keys to Victory

What does Orlando City need to do in order to beat Charlotte and advance to the conference semifinals?

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

Game 2 might not have gone the way Orlando City (or any of us) wanted, but fortunately the Lions have one more chance to try to get past Charlotte FC and into the conference semifinals. Game 3 sees the series return to the City Beautiful, with kickoff set for Saturday at 6 p.m. As we get ready for this one, let’s take a look at what OCSC needs to do in order to beat Charlotte and advance to the next round.

No Slow Start

In Game 1 against Charlotte, the Lions started well and carried that momentum throughout the entirety of the game. That wasn’t the case in the two matches either side of Game 1, as OCSC started slowly against Atlanta United on Decision Day and against Charlotte in Game 2, and the club suffered the consequences on both occasions. That sort of thing can’t happen Saturday. The last time out against this opposition, the Lions started slowly, played sluggishly, and ultimately grew into the game far too late. In front of what should be a fired-up home crowd and with plenty to play for, a strong and confident start will set the tone for the sort of game that OCSC needs to play. Speaking of which…

Possess With a Purpose

Perhaps the biggest issue for Orlando in Game 2 was the fact that even though the good guys had 57% possession, they had shockingly little to show for it. Orlando only took three shots on the night, with the first one not even coming until 65 minutes had been played, and the first shot on target occurred with only seven minutes left in normal time. That sort of offensive “output” is rarely going to cut it, and OCSC almost seemed to go out in that match with the aim of protecting a two-goal aggregate lead that simply didn’t exist. The Lions need to play positively, not pass up opportunities to get forward, and be both creative and purposeful when they have the ball. Simply knocking it around the back line and the midfield and playing for penalties is not a winning strategy, as we’ve all seen.

Toe the Line

In this fantastic (as always) piece from our own Andrew DeSalvo, he made the argument that Wilder Cartagena can’t let the threat of suspension due to yellow card accumulation stop him from playing his game. I wholeheartedly agree, but would also like to insert a plea for the Lions to not take things too far in terms of intensity. Its undoubtedly important to play with grit and focus on winning this game, but the men in purple need to make sure they don’t allow the emotion of the moment to get the best of them. Wilder, Cesar Araujo, Robin Jansson, and Rodrigo Schlegel need to play with the fire that makes them so good, yes, and a yellow card wouldn’t be the end of the world, but OCSC simply has to have all 11 men on the field for the full 90 minutes. In other words, bring the heat, but don’t set your own house on fire.


There you have it, folks. For my money, if the Lions can avoid a slow start, be purposeful when they have the ball, and bring the intensity without taking things too far, I believe they have a great chance to get the win against Charlotte in Game 3. Now, all we can do is wait and watch. Vamos Orlando!

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Lion Links

Lion Links: 11/8/24

Barbra Banda’s soccer journey, Celia will retire after 2024 season, NWSL playoffs begin tonight, and much more.

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Image courtesy of Orlando Pride / Mark Thor

Congratulations on making it to Friday. It’s been a long week, but we’re rewarded with Orlando playoff soccer both today and tomorrow. Before we dive into today’s jam-packed links, let’s all wish a happy birthday to Orlando City B defender Manuel Cocca!

Barbra Banda Shares Her Soccer Journey

Orlando Pride forward Barbra Banda sat down with The Athletic ($) to talk about her time playing soccer both as a young girl in Zambia and in her first season in the City Beautiful. She also discussed her upbringing, including her mother’s initial disapproval in her playing soccer until she joined Bauleni United Sports Academy in Lusaka. Now one of the best players in the world, Banda has lived up to the lofty expectations set since joining Orlando and has excelled at both the club and international level this year. Banda also spoke about her friendship with teammate Grace Chanda, the differences in her playstyle since joining the Pride from Shanghai Shengli, and what it’s like playing alongside Marta in Orlando.

Celia Announces Her Retirement

Pride right back Celia announced that she will retire following the end of the 2024 season. The 29-year-old joined the Pride before the 2022 season as part of a trade with the club then known as OL Reign, and she’s appeared in 37 matches with the Pride. She was also the Pride’s nominee for the 2024 Lauren Holiday Impact Award for her work with SpaceKids Global. Celia will hang up her cleats after a playing career that’s also included stints with European clubs and trips to the World Cup with Spain in 2015 and 2019. We wish her the best of luck in whatever path she takes moving forward!

NWSL Playoffs Kick Off Tonight

This year’s NWSL playoffs will get started in Orlando tonight when the Pride host the Chicago Red Stars. Although the Red Stars will be without forward Ludmila due to suspension, they should still be a tough opponent for the Pride. Temwa Chawinga’s availability looms over Saturday’s clash between the Kansas City Current and the North Carolina Courage, as the Golden Boot winner did not play in the Current’s season finale. Sunday’s slate includes the Washington Spirit hosting Bay FC before NJ/NY Gotham FC squares off against the Portland Thorns.

San Jose Earthquakes Hire Bruce Arena

Bruce Arena is back in MLS, as the San Jose Earthquakes have hired him as the club’s head coach and sporting director. The 73-year-old has a stellar coaching career that’s included success at the collegiate, club, and international levels. He’s the winningest coach in both MLS and United States Men’s National Team history and was named to the National Soccer Hall of Fame in 2010. He returns to MLS after resigning as the New England Revolution’s head coach in 2023 while on administrative leave amid a league investigation into allegations of insensitive remarks made by him. While he’s had successful rebuilds in the past with the LA Galaxy and the Revolution, Arena has his work cut out for him with a San Jose team that finished last in the league this season and conceded a record 78 goals.

Jim Curtin and Philadelphia Union Part Ways

The MLS coaching carousel is in full swing as Jim Curtin is no longer the head coach of the Philadelphia Union. Curtin has been with the Union since 2014 and was named MLS Coach of the Year in 2020 and 2022. While the Supporters’ Shield in 2020 may be the only silverware Curtin put in the Union’s trophy case, the team reached the U.S. Open Cup final three times, the MLS Cup final once, and the Concacaf Champions Cup semifinals twice in his tenure. Philadelphia finished 14th in the Eastern Conference and missed out on the playoffs for the first time since 2017. With a rebuild looming, it makes sense for both Curtin and the Union to part ways. It will still be admittedly weird seeing Curtin coaching anywhere but Philadelphia.

Free Kicks

  • Orlando City and Pride owners the Wilf family applied to develop parts of the Osceola Heritage Park complex. While the land that encompasses Osceola County Stadium or Silver Spurs Arena isn’t included, the former Johnson University campus is available.
  • United States Men’s National Team Head Coach Mauricio Pochettino will be in Orlando this weekend for the Lions’ playoff match against Charlotte.
  • Kylian Mbappe was not called up for France’s UEFA Nations League games this month against Israel and Italy.
  • Let’s wrap things up with a moment of zen courtesy of Orlando right back Dagur Dan Thorhallsson.

That’s all I have for you on this fine Friday. I hope you all have a fantastic day and rest of your weekend. Go Orlando!

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Orlando City

Wilder Cartagena Must Be Himself Despite Yellow Card Accumulation

An evaluation of Wilder Cartagena’s propensity for earning yellow cards and how that may influence the upcoming playoff game against Charlotte.

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

My wife recently went to a Hoobastank concert at EPCOT, and while standing in line, waiting to be allowed to enter the general admission seating area, she asked one of the Disney employees working the event which band had had the longest line queued up in advance of being allowed to enter. The answer, to her great surprise (and later to mine), was Yellowcard. I have nothing against that band, it just would have taken me approximately 15-20 days worth of guesses to even think of them as generating that much demand.

If you were to ask me which current Orlando City player would be most likely to receive a yellow card, however, that would not even take 15-20 seconds. Since joining Orlando City in 2022, Wilder Cartagena averages 0.35 yellow cards per 90 minutes in MLS regular-season play, or about one yellow card per every three games.

Quick trivia question for our diehard Orlando City fans: Cartagena’s 0.35 yellow cards per 90 minutes ranks fourth all time on the Orlando City leaderboard among players who played at least 1,000 MLS minutes. Who are the three players who received yellow cards more frequently?

I’ll show a table shortly that reveals this answer, but before then I will point out that Cartagena has also played in five MLS playoff games, and he is currently on a…hot?…cold?…terrible and please stop doing this?…streak of earning a yellow card in four consecutive postseason matches. His playoff yellow-cards-per-90-minutes average is a ridiculous 0.85, so for all intents and purposes, one yellow card in every game. That is the kind of performance that gets you…suspended.

More on this after I reveal the answer to the trivia question in the chart below. Thanks to the coders at Opta and fbref.com and their Stathead site for tracking yellow cards received. I enjoyed the trip down memory lane this provided, as during some of those early Orlando City years the team was far better at earning yellow cards than the Lions were at things like scoring goals and winning games. Maybe I actually did not enjoy this as much as I thought.

Without further ado, here are your Orlando City players who most frequently received yellow cards in MLS play:

For all of you who correctly identified Cristian Higuita, Brek Shea and Sebas Méndez without doing any research, I suggest bringing this knowledge of arcane Orlando City trivia and joining us at The Mane Land!

Back to Cartagena and suspensions, MLS rules for the playoffs are that if a player receives three yellow cards during the opening round and conference semifinal games, then they must sit out the next game. So, since Cartagena received two yellow cards during the first two opening-round games against Charlotte, if he receives a yellow card in Game 3, he would be suspended for the conference semifinal, if Orlando City defeats Charlotte.

I have shared similar data before, but while Cartagena may not be the player that most fans or pundits think of when thinking about Orlando City, there is the little matter of the fact that he leads the team in plus-minus (goals scored while a player is on the field minus goals given up while a player is on the field) across all competitions this year:

Not only does he lead the team in plus-minus while he is on the field, he is also one of only two Lions (Cesar Araújo is the other) who has a season-long negative on-off value (negative in this case is good, as on-off is calculated by the goals scored when a player is off the field minus the goals given up while a player is off the field). Cartagena is +22 while on the field and the team was -5 while he was not on the field, so he is a net +27 for the season, an outstanding number.

The website fbref.com tracks on-off for MLS regular season games only, and among non-goalkeepers Cartagena ranked 26th in 2024 and and 24th over the 2023 and 2024 seasons combined, with Orlando City being more than one goal worse per 90 minutes in goal differential when the Peruvian midfielder was not playing. Said another way, having Cartagena play a full 90 minutes during the last two seasons was basically tantamount to Orlando City starting the match with a 1-0 lead.

This was not meant to be a Cartagena fawning session, so let me step down from this soapbox (I do not think the crowd could have been any wilder (see what I did there?) while I was speaking though) and walk down to a place off Ocean Avenue to get back to the topic of yellow cards. I do not regret writing that line.

As mentioned earlier, Cartagena is carrying two yellow cards into the upcoming match with Charlotte, so if (when) he receives one, he would be suspended for the semifinal if Orlando City wins. As he is averaging nearly a yellow card per match in his five-game playoff career, it feels very likely that he will receive one at some point in the game. While it would be devastating for him, and the team, to think about having to play a conference semifinal without him on the field, there is a playoff cliché that applies here first, which is that in the playoffs, teams have to survive and advance and think about games one at a time.

Orlando City cannot play Atlanta or Inter Miami before it plays Charlotte, so the Lions need to play the style that they believe will bring them the best chance of winning. That means Cartagena needs to be a midfield destroyer and not be constantly on edge and trying to avoid a card. During the 2024 season he averaged 2.0 fouls committed per 90 minutes, which is 36th in MLS and 19th among MLS midfielders, and he needs to be the same aggressive player he has been all season. If he is thinking about yellow cards, he is not fully focused on winning, and that will not benefit the Lions.

If Cartagena does receive a yellow card, and as a reminder, he averages 0.85 yellow cards per match in MLS playoff games, so this is quite likely, then I believe it would be most beneficial if it were to happen in the middle third of the match. All cards in the opening third of an elimination match are brutal, as those players are now on the referee’s radar and have to consider the risk of a second yellow on any play they make for the rest of the match. It would be doubly brutal for Cartagena, as he would then also have the extra mental strain of knowing that he is definitely missing the next match if the Lions win, and in an elimination game, one moment of distraction or loss of focus can mean the difference. By the way, Tim Ream, feel free to be distracted for many moments.

Elite athletes like Cartagena are usually far better at compartmentalizing than we normal humans are, so perhaps an early yellow card would not impact him that much, but it would be better for Orlando City if it does not happen, so there is not the additional concern around if Oscar Pareja needs to sub him off to avoid going down to 10 players. Just as an early yellow card would be brutal, I also believe that a yellow card in the final third of the game would be brutal, because that would mean that the game was still competitive enough that Cartagena had to be on the field and taking risks to make plays, and then there would be the immediate letdown of a yellow card and the knowledge that if Orlando City advances, he would not be available.

An early card changes the game for Cartagena and the coaching staff, and a late card means a close game and a risk of short-term loss of focus late in the match, so therefore I am going to go with a yellow card in the middle of the match being the best scenario, even though none of these are actually good options. I do not want to disrespect any of the other central midfield candidates, but there is not really another good option aside from a midfield pairing of Araújo and Cartagena for as long as Orlando City can have them on the field. If this was Inter Miami, I’m sure Darth…sorry, Don…Garber would find a way for an emergency one-game contract signing of someone like Arsenal’s Declan Rice, but this is Orlando City, so no such luck for the Lions.

Make no mistake, the best outcome for Orlando City is a clean game from Cartagena, and while his playoff booking numbers are not ideal, he played 20 card-free MLS regular-season games this year, so he certainly can do it. My hope is that he does not allow the yellow card accumulation to influence his play at all and just plays with the same vim and vigor that made him the most valuable player for Orlando City in terms of goal differential.

If it helps at all, I am happy to write this message up in big bold letters and display it inside Inter&Co Stadium on Saturday night, though I will definitely not write it on a yellow card.

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