Connect with us

Orlando City

Is Luis Muriel Who We Thought He Would Be?

A thorough investigation into whether Luis Muriel has underperformed or if fans just need some dissuasion.

Published

4 months ago

on

Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

Winston Churchill famously evaluated what Russia would do during World War II by saying, “I cannot forecast to you the action of Russia. It is a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma, but perhaps there is a key.” In the grand scheme of things, the performance of one player on Orlando City’s 2024 squad is slightly less important than what Great Britain’s prime minister was discussing, I think, but when analyzing Luis Muriel and how his season has gone thus far, I continue to come back to the same question: is Luis Muriel underperforming expectations or were our expectations never correct in the first place?

Let’s get right into it — Muriel’s traditional stats thus far this season do not look fantastic for a striker (though it must be said that his post-goal dance on Saturday, dubbed “The Muriel” on this week’s episode of The Mane Land PawedCast, did look fantastic). Here is a chart, using data from fbref.com in collaboration with Opta, that shows some of his 2024 stats, their rank in MLS, and their rank on Orlando City (for some of these metrics I included a qualifier of number of attempts and chose 19 as the minimum, because for many teams that would mean a player had averaged at least one attempt per game in that category):

For a player who is, according to the MLS Players Salary Guide, the 12th-highest paid player in MLS, you would like to see a lot of those ranks closer to the top 10 or 20 in the league than what you see in that chart. For a player who is by far the highest paid on Orlando City’s 2024 team, and is the second highest-paid player ever for Orlando City (Kaká was the highest paid), you would like to see him leading the team in at least one of those categories, if not several.

The bottom two in particular stand out to me, as there are 125 MLS players who have taken at least 19 shots this season, and Muriel ranks 113th on that list in distance from the goal and 92nd in getting his shots on target, meaning he is shooting from farther away than nearly all high-volume shooters, and he is getting his shots on goal less often than most. In fact, his shot profile shows that he is taking a higher percentage of shots from 25+ yards away from the goal (dark purple section below) than any of his teammates are taking from 19+ yards away from the goal (dark purple + light purple sections), and he is taking nearly 70% of all of his shots from outside of the 18.

Now, were he putting these shots on goal — or, even better, in the goal — then nobody would care about where he was shooting from, but when you have three goals all year and 69% of your shots are not on target, then heads are going to shake, shake, shake, shake like a song by the Ying Yang Twins and Pitbull. But this is where I think a step back is needed, because if fans were expecting Muriel to come in and perform as a traditional striker or No. 9, then they were misreading his historical performance and his strengths as a player.

When you look at Muriel’s season-by-season statistics, two seasons jump out that would seem to contradict what I just wrote, and those are his 2019-2020 and 2020-2021 seasons, when he scored 18 and 22 goals, respectively.

“That seems like a lot of goals for someone you say is not a traditional striker, Andrew.”

Well, yes, but 11 of those 40 goals were from free kicks (which definitely takes skill, but skill that is not unique to a striker), and two were rebounds that fell to him inside the six-yard box, and while I do not generally love the statistic called xG (expected goals), it can be useful in some contexts, and those two rebounds both fell to Muriel in a location where a goal was expected 82% and 85% of the time. It’s almost so easy a caveman could do it.

So, either we are left with 27 of his goals (excluding 11 free kicks + two rebounds) or 29 of his goals (excluding only the 11 free kicks) that came from open play during those two high-scoring years — an average of 14.5 or 13.5 a season. Those are definitely good numbers, especially in a highly rated league like Serie A, but they are still also outliers when compared to his goals/year during most of his career.

Looking at his seasons from 2010-2011 through 2022-2023, excluding the two big seasons discussed above, Muriel averaged six non-penalty-kick goals per season. He scored those goals in Italy’s Serie A or Spain’s La Liga, top leagues, but six goals/year is not an amount generally associated with big-time strikers. To assume he would all of a sudden become a major goal scorer in the latter stages of his career just because he is joining a league rated lower than the one where he played previously is a bit of a stretch, and may be an unfair expectation by us as fans.

The other part I want to focus on that I think may be underappreciated by fans is all of the non-scoring contributions that Muriel has made during his time on the field. Yes, in the end the only stats that actually matter are goals and wins, and there have not been a lot of either thus far this season, but no single player is primarily responsible for that, even if they are a highly paid Designated Player.

A lot of the issues Orlando City has had this year are due to geometry (there will always be math when I write) and how the Lions’ shape needs to be in order to get the most out of the players on this year’s team. There are quite a lot of overlapping skills and overlapping places where players like to receive the ball, and that has frequently led to spacing issues on the field with creative players all wanting to go and get the ball in the same location at the same time.

Muriel, unlike many of his teammates, is a two-footed player and thus able to attack from anywhere on the field and in any direction, allowing him to create open spaces to play the ball all over the attacking third of the field. While this can get him into trouble (see: shots from very long range), he also has used this ability to be one of the more active and dangerous players in all of MLS when he has the ball:

As an aside, the last row there is interesting to me because Muriel ranks 16th in all of MLS, yet third on Orlando City (behind Nico Lodeiro in third overall and Facundo Torres in 15th overall). The Crew have two players in the top 16 as well, and every other player in the top 16 is the only one on his respective team. I am not sure whether Orlando City having three near the top is an example of an unselfish team that is comfortable playing the ball among playmakers or reflects a team that does not have the pecking order set, and thus it becomes a little of “my turn, your turn” type offense.

Last season, there was a clear order in that Torres led the team and was 25th in MLS, and the next-highest-ranking players were Martín Ojeda in 57th and Mauricio Pereyra in 79th. Is this something? I think it is still too early to tell, but removing own goals, Orlando City players scored 1.59 goals/game in 2023 and thus far this season they are only scoring 1.16 goals/game, and I believe that the lack of a defined primary creator is one of several contributing factors to the lower-scoring output this season.

Back to Muriel and that chart above, his talent and skill clearly shows in how he is able to thread passes into dangerous areas and create shots at a rate that puts him among the leaders in all of MLS. His dribbling ability, reflected in the progressive carry percentage, shows that he is moving the ball at least 10 yards forward towards the goal 12.7% of the time he dribbles the ball in the offensive half of the field. This puts the defense under pressure, because he is building up a head of steam and coming at pace, and since he is also completing approximately 80% of his short passes (0-15 yards) thus far this season, and completing many of those into the 18, he is a constant threat once he has the ball.

As I mentioned before, Muriel is a two-footed player (Opta’s tracking has the foot used for 83 Muriel goals — 22 were left foot and 61 were right foot, an impressive mix), so he is a player who can go left or right, is accurate with his passes in tight spaces, creates shooting opportunities for his teammates, and wants the ball at all times. These are all qualities you want in an attacking player, especially one as proficient as Muriel is in them.

So we return to the riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma — a player with clear skill and pedigree who is contributing offensively but is not putting up the counting stats fans thought he would, even though he never really did aside from two outlier years. As much as I like to be more glass-half-full than half-empty, I do feel like Muriel should have contributed more goals by this point in the season, but unlike what the fan sitting next to me said during Saturday’s game, I do not think he is massively underperforming either.

In the end, I think Muriel’s performance thus far has been kind of like where we frequently see him on the field, more in the middle than in the front.

Related Topics:
Continue Reading

Orlando City

Orlando City vs. Atlanta United: Player Grades and Man of the Match

How did your favorite Lions perform in Orlando City’s 2-1 home loss to Atlanta United?

Published

7 hours ago

on

October 21, 2024

By

Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

In a somewhat disappointing fashion, Orlando City closed out the 2024 Major League Soccer regular season at home with a 2-1 loss against rival Atlanta United. Following the most recent international break, Orlando City failed to recapture the form that had propelled the squad to three straight victories. After digging themselves an early two-goal hole, the Lions found a way to score before the half and then thought they’d equalized late, only for a Decision Day video review decision to go against them.

Let’s take a look at how Orlando City’s players rated individually in their matchup with Atlanta in the regular-season finale.

Starters

GK, Pedro Gallese, 6.5 — Atlanta attempted nine shots in the match and was able to put five on target. In a blink-and-you-will-miss-it type of start to the match, the visitors found the back of the net twice before the game was even 20 minutes old. It is hard to fault the Peruvian for either of the first two goals as the defense allowed Saba Lobjanidze to walk right through before slotting a ball past the keeper and then failed to mark properly on a ball that Gallese had already parried away from point-blank range, though he might have been able to grab it or control the rebound a bit better. The highlight of Gallese’s night came just seconds after halftime when Dagur Dan Thorhallsson committed a foul in the box. Gallese chose correctly and made a huge save on Atlanta’s penalty to keep it a one-goal game. The Peruvian international completed 11 of his 12 passes for a 91.7% completion rate, including four of five long balls attempted.

D, Rafael Santos, 6 — The match did not start well for Santos as he first conceded a corner that eventually led to Atlanta’s second goal, and then got caught ball-watching on the ensuing corner attempt, allowing Jamal Thiare to find the back of the net. He improved from there, leading the team with 110 touches while completing 68 of his 79 passes (86.1%) with three key passes. That included an assist on a good cross for Martin Ojeda’s header. Defensively, he recorded one interception, one clearance, and one tackle while winning a team-high four aerial duels. Offensively, Santos attempted one off-target shot and completed two successful dribbles.

D, Robin Jansson, 6.5 — The captain contributed a solid, if unspectacular, performance against a team that had been fairly anemic on offense down the stretch. He had 93 touches and completed 77 of his 83 passing attempts for a 92.8% rate, including six of eight long balls. On defense, he had one interception, a team-high four clearances, and a blocked shot. The Swede failed to contribute an offensive statistic against Atlanta.

D, Rodrigo Schlegel, 6 — Orlando fans know at this point that you have to take the good Schlegel with the bad Schlegel and unfortunately bad Schlegel showed up during the first Atlanta goal as he was caught flat-footed as Lobjanidze blew right by him. Aside from that, he was mainly solid in the match. Schlegel had 84 touches and won two aerials. He completed 78 of his 80 passes (97.5%), including eight of nine long balls. Defensively, he contributed one clearance while committing two fouls. He attempted one shot which was off target.

D, Dagur Dan Thorhallsson, 5.5 — Thorhallsson returned to the starting lineup after missing several matches and looked the part early of someone trying to get back up to speed and match fitness. Considering Atlanta had only scored four goals in the first 30 minutes of a match the whole season, Thorhallsson and company allowed the Five Stripes far too much daylight, resulting in a goal just a few minutes into the game. He had 64 touches and completed 45 of his 49 passes (91.8%), including one key pass. Thorhallsson was accurate on both of his long ball attempts but only logged one successful cross on four attempts. Defensively, he recorded a team-high three tackles and three clearances. Things could have gone sideways quickly for Orlando after the halftime break, as Thorhallsson was whistled for a foul in the box, resulting in an Atlanta penalty kick. He was subbed off in the 80th minute and will look to get his offensive rhythm back during training this week as he failed to record a shot.

MF, César Araujo, 6.5 — Missing his dynamic defensive partner, Wilder Cartagena, due to yellow card accumulation, Araujo was asked to do a little bit of everything against Atlanta and had an overall successful outing in front of the home crowd. He registered 107 touches and completed 81 of his 87 passes (93.1%). He tied Santos for the team lead in key passes with three and completed seven of his eight long ball attempts. He was unsuccessful on his lone crossing attempt. Defensively, he contributed one tackle, one interception, and three clearances. Offensively, Araujo was more involved than usual, logging two shots with one on target, and he was fouled a team-high five times.

MF, Felipe, 5 — Inserted for Cartagena due to his suspension, Felipe was also partly culpable on Atlanta’s first goal. The veteran from Brazil logged 47 touches in 52 minutes of action and completed 32 of his 38 passing attempts (84.2%), contributing two key passes. Felipe was unsuccessful in all three of his long ball attempts and defensively contributed one tackle and two interceptions. Offensively, Felipe recorded a shot but it failed to land on frame. He was subbed off in the 52nd minute for Kyle Smith.

MF, Iván Angulo, 6 — Angulo did not play badly but he was more invisible than usual. The key to the Colombian speedster’s game is to create chaos and to blow by opponents. Against Atlanta, Angulo failed to do much of that, but he also did not create egregious errors. Angulo logged 62 touches and completed 43 of his 48 passing attempts (89.6%) and mainly avoided some of the turnovers in his own half that have plagued him in recent games. He was credited with one key pass and one shot attempt that was off target. His cross turned into the McGuire goal that was overturned in the 89th minute. The season leader in minutes played went the full 90 once again and chipped in one tackle on defense.

MF, Martín Ojeda, 7.5 (MotM) — Ojeda was in full attack mode throughout the match and in my humble opinion was sacrificed far too early for how well he was playing. He scored Orlando’s lone goal in the 42nd minute with a glancing header and was credited with 56 touches. He completed 36 of his 39 passing attempts (92.3%), including two key passes. All three of his long ball attempts were successful and he completed one of his three crosses. Defensively, he failed to record a statistic but this match was all about Ojeda hunting his shot. The Argentine attacker led the team with eight total shots, four of which were on target, which was easily the best mark on the team. He might have had a hat trick had his right-footed attempts fallen instead for his preferred left foot. Ojeda picked up a yellow card in the 62nd minute — the only card shown to either team on the night — and was substituted out for Luis Muriel in the 68th minute of the match. With the way Ojeda was playing on offense, I would have much preferred that Muriel replace Angulo or Facundo Torres.

MF, Facundo Torres, 6 — With Ojeda hunting, fellow Designated Player Torres had an off night. He had 68 touches and completed 49 of his 56 passes (87.5%). Torres recorded one key pass, was unsuccessful on his lone cross, and completed one of his two long balls. Defensively, Torres failed to record a statistic, but he won three aerial duels. Offensively, he logged two shots, which were both off-target.

F, Ramiro Enrique, 5.5 — Enrique had a quiet night, logging only 18 touches which is simply not enough, considering the Lions were trailing essentially from the jump. He completed eight of his 10 passes (80%), including two key passes, and his lone shot attempt was on target. Defensively, Enrique did not contribute a statistic and was substituted off in the 68th minute for Duncan McGuire.

Substitutes

MF, Kyle Smith (52′), 6 —  After starting much of the last month for the injured Thorhallsson, Smith started on the bench against Atlanta, replacing Felipe in the early moments of the second half. Smith had 49 touches as a substitute, and he completed 45 of his 47 passes (95.7%). He logged one tackle on the defensive end and did not contribute an offensive stat.

F, Duncan McGuire (68′), 6 — The second-year attacker thought he’d scored a late equalizer, in the 89th minute, but it was disallowed as referee Rubiel Vazquez ruled the ball had clearly hit his hand before he scored. McGuire had just six touches and completed two of his three passing attempts. Besides the overturned goal, McGuire recorded a shot on target.

MF, Luis Muriel (68’), 6 — Muriel entered the match for Ojeda with a little more than 20 minutes left in the match, and Orlando down a goal. He had 20 touches and completed 14 of his 17 attempts (82.4%), including two key passes, and was accurate on both of his long ball attempts. Muriel was credited with two successful dribbles but did not attempt a shot.

MF, Nicolas Lodeiro, (80’), N/A — Lodeiro entered the match late with Orlando hunting for the equalizer. He had 23 touches and completed 14 of his 18 passes (77.8%). Lodeiro attempted two shots, putting one on frame, and did not contribute a defensive statistic.

That’s how I saw the individual performances from the final match of the regular season. What did you think? Be sure to let us know in the comments, and vote in the poll below for your Orlando City Man of the Match.

Continue Reading

Lion Links

Lion Links: 10/21/24

Orlando City and Orlando Pride lose, Orlando City B eliminated from playoffs, Seb Hines discusses diversity in soccer, and more.

Published

14 hours ago

on

October 21, 2024

By

Image courtesy of Orlando Pride / Jeremy Reper

Hello, Mane Landers! I hope all is well with you down in Florida. I just finished setting up broadcasting for the NISA championship match in California over the weekend. This week, I’m back to staying busy at Under Armour and covering high school sports. It was a rough weekend for Orlando’s soccer teams, and we have plenty to cover today. Let’s get to the links!

Lions Fall to Atlanta United at Home on Decision Day

Orlando City fell 2-1 to Atlanta United on Saturday at Inter&Co Stadium on Decision Day. The Lions trailed 2-0 early in the first half before Martin Ojeda pulled one back for Orlando just before halftime. The Lions thought they had a late equalizer from Duncan McGuire, but the referee overturned the goal after a video review. The loss ended Orlando’s three-match winning streak, but it still clinched fourth place in the Eastern Conference as New York City FC lost to CF Montreal. Orlando’s next match will be in the first round of the MLS Cup Playoffs at home against Charlotte FC on Sunday.

Orlando Pride Lose to NJ/NY Gotham FC on the Road

The Orlando Pride lost their second straight match with a 3-1 defeat on the road to NJ/NY Gotham FC on Sunday at Red Bull Arena. The Pride were down 1-0 early in the first half before Adriana converted a penalty to tie things up. Gotham added two goals from Rose Lavelle and Ella Stevens to seal the victory and extend its unbeaten streak to seven matches. The Pride’s next game will be on Nov. 2 at home when they face the Seattle Reign in their final match of the regular season.

Seb Hines Speaks on Diversity in Soccer

BBC Sport interviewed Pride Head Coach Seb Hines after the club won its first NWSL Shield. Hines discussed how he’s helped reshape the club’s culture and advocates for more opportunities for black coaches in the sport alongside assistant coaches Giles Barnes and Yolanda Thomas.

“Being a trailblazer comes with a big responsibility because I want to advocate for more black coaches and diversity within the sport.

“It’s a responsibility to fight for more equality globally. It’s less about winning and more about breaking those barriers. I want to continue to give hope to others.”

Thomas, who joined the Pride’s coaching staff in 2023, also spoke on her passion to drive change and how she was inspired by former England manager Hope Powell.

OCB Eliminated from MLS NEXT Pro Playoffs

Orlando City B was eliminated from postseason play after losing 5-4 on penalties to Chicago Fire FC II following a 1-1 draw at SeatGeek Stadium in the MLS NEXT Pro playoffs . The Young Lions got off to a great start with a goal from Jack Lynn to take the lead in the first half. However, scored an equalizer just before halftime. After 90 minutes and extra time, the game went to penalties, where both teams exchanged goals until sudden death. OCB’s Favian Loyola missed his penalty, while Jean Diouf scored to send Chicago into the conference semifinals. OCB missed out on a chance to get its first postseason win and its 2024 season came to an end.

Orlando City and Pride Announce Hurricane Relief Efforts

Orlando City and the Pride announced hurricane relief effort plans over the weekend so fans can get involved and support those in need following Hurricane Helene and Hurricane Milton. The club also announced that the Wilf Family Foundations contributed $450,000 towards relief efforts, with $350,000 going to the American Red Cross and $100,000 to Heart of Florida United Way, a charity partner for the Pride.

Free Kicks

  • Check out Orlando City’s hype video on social media leading up to its playoff match.

That will do it for me today, Mane Landers. Enjoy your Monday and I’ll see you next time.

Continue Reading

Orlando City

Orlando City vs. Atlanta United: Five Takeaways

Here’s what we learned from Orlando City’s 2-1 loss to Atlanta United.

Published

1 day ago

on

October 20, 2024

By

Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

Orlando City hosted Atlanta United at Inter&Co Stadium on Decision Day. The 2-1 loss had its share of controversy, but the Lions’ home undefeated streak ended at seven. While it was a disappointing result, I’m hopeful it will put a chip on the shoulder of Orlando City so the team rolls through the playoffs.

Here are my five takeaways from a depressing but ultimately meaningless loss.

Not a Great Start, Bob

The right side of Orlando City’s defense decided that the level of difficulty in the match needed to be higher. As such, the defenders on that side all decided to take a nap or close their eyes in the seventh minute. Pedro Amador’s back heel to put Saba Lobjanidze behind the defense was slick, and it allowed Lobjanidze to put the ball past Pedro Gallese and into the bottom right corner of the goal. Nine minutes later, Gallese made the initial save on Atlanta’s corner kick, but he pushed it out to Jamal Thiaré, who gave Atlanta the two-goal lead.

It’s Ojeda’s Half

Martin Ojeda was a difference maker for Orlando City right from the start. He managed seven shots in the first half, but it was his goal in the 42nd minute that truly changed the complexion of the match for the Lions. With Orlando City down two goals, Rafael Santos crossed the ball into the box and onto the head of Ojeda, who redirected it past Brad Guzan to pull the Lions within one. It was fitting that Ojeda got the goal, given the good work he’d done all half.

The Great Gallese

Dagur Dan Thorhallsson almost put a dagger in the hearts of the Orlando City faithful when he fouled Lobjanidze inside the box to give Atlanta United a penalty kick less than a minute into the second half. Alexey Miranchuk stepped up to take the kick for Atlanta, but was denied the goal by Gallese. El Pulpo guessed correctly, diving to his right side and getting a tentacle on the shot to keep Orlando City in the match.

The Hand of McGuire

Duncan McGuire’s arm couldn’t have been closer to his body unless it was inside his ribcage. Regardless, the video assistant referee looked at it and sent referee Rubiel Vazquez to the monitor for a second look. Vazquez determined that the ball hit his hand prior to him putting the ball in the back of the net. I was watching from home, and I didn’t think the video evidence was definitive enough to overturn the goal. Of course, I’m not Don Garber…er…PRO referees. If McGuire’s goal stood, Atlanta was out of playoff contention. Instead, the decision put Atlanta into the playoff Wild Card match against CF Montreal.

Good Enough but Not Good Enough

Ultimately, the result didn’t matter for Orlando City. New York City FC’s loss ensured the Lions finished the regular season in fourth place, earning home field advantage in the round. Other than the two defensive lapses early, the Lions dominated the match. Orlando City took 20 shots to Atlanta’s seven, with eight on target to Atlanta’s four. The Lions also held 67% of the possession, and passed at a 90% rate. The chances were there, but saves by Guzan and a controversial overturned goal contributed to the Orlando City loss.

That is what I saw in the 2-1 loss. What were your biggest takeaways from the game? Let us know in the comments below and as always, vamos Orlando!

Continue Reading

Trending