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How Should We Make Sense of Orlando City’s Defense in 2024?

An evaluation of Orlando City’s defensive players thus far this season.

Published

2 years ago

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

Everyone loves offense, no matter the sport. Whether it be baskets, goals, runs, touchdowns, tries, or any other manner of scoring, much more focus is often put on the scoring of points than the defensive side of preventing them. Since I started writing for The Mane Land, I have only written about offense, so just like when at a concert the band likes to give the drummers some love by focusing on them, it is time to shift to looking at Orlando City’s defense thus far this season.

Alas, at a high level, the initial dive into Orlando City’s 2024 defense does not look that great. Opponents have scored 36 goals already this season in only 22 games, as compared to 38 for the entire 2023 regular season (34 games). The chart below, created using data from Opta and fbref.com, compares Orlando City to the rest of MLS in some key defensive areas and the results are, shall we say, less than ideal. One definition before you look, “MLS avg” is the average of every other team except Orlando City.

A few notes on this data:

  • I know you all remember from this math class, but Z-Scores measure how many standard deviations away from the average a value is. For example: if an average is 100 and the standard deviation is 5 then a value of 110 is 2 standard deviations more than the average, which would be a Z-score of 2. In general Z-Scores greater than 2 or less than -2 are pretty rare, and indicate that a value is an outlier as compared to the average.
  • Orlando City is not good at winning balls in the air. But there is some good news. Orlando City’s defenders (47.1% win rate) are at least better than the team’s attacking players (38.4%), but the MLS average win rate for defenders is 57%, and Orlando City’s defenders also rank 29th when compared to every other squad’s defenders. As a reminder there are only 29 MLS teams, so you cannot rank below 29th. Not great, Bob.
  • In general, I do not love xG (expected goals) as a stat. The reason why is that it simply measures the overall percentage of goals per shot from a location on the field, but it does not take into account who is shooting (my 7-year-old son, Brayden’s, xG is the same as Facundo Torres’ from any spot on the field. Until recently, this may have actually been legitimately true for both when they used their right foot.). That said, I do think it is helpful to look at xG as a relative measure of where shots are coming from, or in this case, where Orlando City is allowing shots to be taken from. Orlando City is giving up shots more frequently than other MLS teams from places that, historically, have generated more goals.

I want to go a little more in depth on the two items that show as green on that chart, Fouls committed per 90 minutes and recoveries per 90 minutes. Orlando City is doing well — very well — compared to the rest of MLS in both, but what does that really mean?

Committing fewer fouls than other teams seems like a good thing, but this is where numbers simply do not provide enough context to determine whether it is actually good or not to be a “clean” team and not foul. A few more tactical fouls in the buildup of play and maybe a few of the goals scored against Orlando City do not happen. A few more fouls on attacking players trying to beat an Orlando City player 1-v-1 early in the game, and perhaps they look to pass instead of taking on defenders late in the game. Orlando City has been elite this year at not fouling, but I do not think there is enough data here to conclude whether that is actually helpful.

Similarly, being in the top third of the league in recoveries (of loose balls) per 90 minutes may be another stat that sounds better than it is. Yes, it does show that the team is hustling and getting possession of the ball, and in general in soccer, if you have the ball, the other team cannot score. I do not want to take anything away from the hustle of this team, because it certainly does have a lot of players who give maximum effort, and winning two more loose balls per game than the average team could be the difference in winning and losing a game.

But it could also just mean that your own team is a little careless with the ball and you are one step quicker to get to the ball when it gets loose. I think for this particular stat it is more about hustle than good defense, so a positive but not necessarily an indication of defensive prowess.

So, we have some stats that show that as a team Orlando City has been in the mid to lower part of the league, but why? What is really driving this change from a team that was tied for seventh for fewest goals conceded during the 2023 season?

While goals against come against the entire team, in general, the primary group responsible for goals are those who play in the back. I’ve gone through every match and evaluated who was playing and when, and the chart below I think starts to really tell the tale of why the defense has not prevented as many goals as in previous seasons. (Note: Opponent SoT% is the percentage of shots the opponent put on target.)

I know this chart may have been a lot to look at, but that is also part of the point. The Lions have not had a lot of consistency in their back line this season, with 22 different groupings in the back playing at least one minute and six different groups playing at least 150 minutes. Breaking the list down, we can also see that:

  • The defensive group that has played the most minutes has not even played one-third of the total minutes this season, so there has just not been a lot of game time for any one unit to play together and gel as a group.
  • The defensive group that played approximately one-fifth of the minutes so far this season includes a midfielder, Wilder Cartagena, and was used as part of a back three playing with two wingbacks, not Orlando City’s preferred formation but one the club had to use a lot because of the next item on this list.
  • Robin Jansson has already missed more minutes in 2024 (400) than he did in all of 2023 (180). The man is the captain for a reason, and he certainly would have played most if not all 400 of those minutes had he been available.
  • Smoking Gun Alert: Jansson and David Brekalo have only played 610 minutes together all season (30.8% of all minutes), but in those minutes, their goals against per 90 minutes is only 1.33, which is 25% better (let me repeat, 25% better!) than Orlando City defensive lineups without those two playing at the same time (1.77 Goals Against per 90).

Not every lineup that Orlando City has rolled out with Jansson and Brekalo in the middle has been successful, and they still have only played a pretty low number of minutes together, but at more than 600 minutes played together there is now a good sample size to say that the data backs up that Orlando City’s best defensive lineup should include Jansson and Brekalo.

Another reason it is critical to have two stalwart center backs like Jansson and Brekalo on the field is that Óscar Pareja’s offensive game plan generally includes his outside backs making runs up the field to put pressure on the defense. The three primary outside backs who have played most of the minutes this year — Rafael Santos, Kyle Smith, and Dagur Dan Thórhallsson — all average between 2.0 and 2.2 shot-creating actions per 90 minutes, and next-in-line Mikey Halliday nearly did (1.7) last year as well, though he has been hurt for most of this season, so he has not played very much.

If you are going to have your outside backs bombing forward, which Dagur Dan in particular has aggressively been doing recently (2.9 shot-creating actions per 90 mins during his last five games), then you need to have stability staying home in the back, and both the data and the eye test tilt toward that stability being recommended to come from Jansson and Brekalo.

The outside back pairings do not show significant pluses or minuses based on which two are playing, so I expect that in the upcoming weeks Pareja will roll with who he thinks has the hot foot offensively, which in the last two matches has been Smith and Thórhallsson. Last year’s success primarily came with Santos and Thórhallsson on the outside though, so I expect that as Orlando City pushes for a playoff spot during the final few months of the season, they will still be tinkering a little bit. Constant change in the back has contributed to where Orlando City is in the defensive rankings and in the table, but at some point assuredly the back line will stop a-changin’. My dad will love that reference.

With the transfer window opening up I find it unlikely that Orlando City will look to add on the defensive side; the Lions have gotten through some injuries and the Euros, so barring injury (cross your fingers and knock on wood, thank you), they should hopefully have one consistent group to choose from for every game going forward.

The team took off last season once it really locked into a consistent 11 during the second half of the season, and there is no good defense for why that could not happen again this year.

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Orlando City

Orlando City vs. San Diego FC: Preview, How to Watch, TV Info, Live Stream, Lineups, Match Thread, and More

The Lions welcome San Diego FC to Orlando for the first meeting ever between the two clubs.

Published

11 hours ago

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September 5, 2026

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Image of Joran Gerbet playing against Minnesota United.
Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

Welcome to your match preview and live thread for a Saturday night matchup between Orlando City (7-11-4, 25 points) and San Diego FC (8-8-6, 30 points) at Inter.co Stadium in Orlando (7:30 p.m., Apple TV). It’s the first-ever meeting between these two teams from different conferences

Here’s what you need to know ahead of the match.

History

As mentioned above, tonight’s meeting between the Lions and San Diego is the first in the series history, so there is no history. The Lions are 2-2-1 against Western Conference teams this season, which means little to nothing in this particular match, and San Diego is going to be Orlando City’s final opponent from the opposite conference in MLS regular-season play this season.

Overview

The Lions are coming off a wild 3-3 road draw at Minnesota United a week ago, in which Daryl Dike and Antoine Griezmann scored on either side of halftime on Orlando’s first two shot attempts to put their team up 2-0 in the 64th minute. Minnesota stormed back with three goals off defensive errors in a four-minute span to take a late 3-2 lead. Just when the Loons appeared to be headed for all three points, Tyrese Spicer scored in stoppage time, forcing Minnesota to split the points. Orlando has a modest 1-0-1 unbeaten streak entering tonight, and the Lions are 5-4-2 at home in 2026.

San Diego is coming off a 3-1 home win over the LA Galaxy despite having Jeppe Tverskov sent off. Tonight’s visitors have won two straight games, but both were at home. They lost their last home game 3-1 at Portland on Aug. 19 and are 2-5-3 away from home this season.

The key for Orlando City tonight will be to mark Anders Dreyer, which is far easier said than done, as he has emerged as one of the league’s best playmakers. His eight goals and 11 assists give him 19 total goal contributions to lead his team. Marcus Ingvartsen is Dreyer’s favorite teammate to combine with, as the Danish forward has converted 11 times, leading San Diego in goals, and has added five assists. However, Ingvartsen is listed as out with a lower body injury. Midfielder Onni Valakari has chipped in four goals and seven assists.

“We respect San Diego, but as well we prepare our game,” Orlando City interim head coach Martin Perelman said ahead of the match. “We know how strong we are, especially at home, so now we go.”

Orlando City will be without Braian Ojeda (foot) and Adrian Marin (thigh), while Bernardo Rhein (thigh), has been upgraded to questionable. San Diego will be without the aforementioned Ingvartsen (lower body) and Tverskov (suspension).

Match Content

Official Lineups:

Orlando City (4-4-2)

Goalkeeper: Maxime Crepeau.

Defenders: Bernardo Rhein, Robin Jansson, David Brekalo, Griffin Dorsey.

Midfielders: Ivan Angulo, Joran Gerbet, Eduard Atuesta, Justin Ellis.

Forwards: Antoine Griezmann, Daryl Dike.

Bench: Javier Otero, Zakaria Taifi, Iago, Wilder Cartagena, Luis Otavio, Tiago, Marco Pasalic, Martin Ojeda, Tyrese Spicer.

San Diego FC (4-3-3)

Goalkeeper: C.J. dos Santos.

Defenders: Kieran Sargeant, Ian Murphy, Manu Duah, Oscar Verhoeven.

Midfielders: Gabriel Pirani, Anibal Godoy, Alejandro Alvarado.

Forwards: Elias Achouri, Onni Valakari, Anders Dreyer.

Bench: Duran Ferree, Dagur Dan Thorhallsson, Christopher McVey, Bryan Zamble, David Vazquez, Ian Pilcher, Alex Mighten, Bryce Duke, Amahl Pellegrino.

Referees:

REF: Joe Dickerson.
AR1: Corey Parker.
AR2: Justin Howard.
4TH: Rodrigo Albuquerque.
VAR: Daniel Radford.
AVAR: Jeff Muschik.

How to Watch

Match Time: 7:30 p.m.

Venue: Inter.co Stadium — Orlando.

TV/Streaming: Apple TV.

Radio: AM 810 FOX Sports Radio Orlando (English), Mega 97.1 FM (Spanish), Nossa Rádio 1160 AM-WRLZ (Portuguese).

Social Media: For rapid reaction and live updates, follow us on Bluesky Social at @themaneland.bsky.social or follow Orlando City’s official Twitter (@OrlandoCitySC) or Bluesky (@OrlandoCitySC) feed.

Enjoy the match. Go City!

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Orlando City

Orlando City vs. San Diego FC: Three Keys to Victory

Here’s what Orlando needs to do in order to return to winning ways against San Diego.

Published

1 day ago

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September 4, 2026

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

After the disappointment of two dropped points against Minnesota on Saturday, Orlando City is back home with an opportunity to get things back on track. The Lions need to keep picking up points if they want to keep pace in an increasingly crowded Eastern Conference, and Saturday’s game is a good chance to start September off on the right note. San Diego FC stands in the way of that good start, and what follows are three things that I believe Orlando needs to do in order to emerge victorious from this game.

Stay Strong on the Left

The left side of the defense has been a question mark for the Lions for much of the year. Adrian Marin, Bernardo Rhein, and Zakaria Taifi have all spent time at left back lately and have done so with varying degrees of success. Regardless of who suits up there on Saturday, that area of the field will be under scrutiny once again, since they’ll be tasked with stopping San Diego right winger Anders Dreyer. He has eight goals and 11 assists in 21 appearances this year, has played 60 key passes during that time, and is generally the lynchpin through which the San Diego offense operates. He hasn’t quite been on the same pace that saw him bag 19 goals and 19 assists in the regular season last year, but with four goal contributions in his last three MLS appearances, he’s extremely capable of wreaking havoc from the wing. A lot of the goals OCSC has conceded lately have come down the left side of the defense, and if that area of the field can’t be taken care of better, the Lions will likely be in for a difficult night.

Do Damage in Transition

Orlando’s current style of positionless, fluid, attacking soccer is at its best when it comes up against teams that want to come out and play. It struggles mightily against defensive bunkers but shines when the Lions can get out and run, target open spaces, and combine with teammates in unexpected areas. Fortunately for OCSC (in theory), San Diego is a team that likes to have the ball, as it has the highest average possession in the league. That means the Lions will have opportunities to force turnovers and break the other way at pace. In order to make that happen though, OCSC will need to be both disciplined and effective when it comes to applying its press. Then, if/when the Lions win the ball, correct decision-making and clinical execution in the final third will be key to avoid letting any chances slip through their fingers (paws?).

Clean Up the Self-Inflicted Errors

Orlando has dealt with more than its fair share of general defensive struggles this year, but avoidable errors have been a particular problem in recent weeks. Whether it’s been an ill-advised challenge, passing to the opposition in the defensive third, or leaving men unmarked in the box, unnecessary mistakes have cost OCSC points time and again. Against lesser opposition it hasn’t always mattered, as the Lions were able to rescue three points against Real Salt Lake, but if Orlando wants to make a playoff push, it needs to make a habit of playing cleaner games, plain and simple. San Diego is a good team with dangerous offensive players, and Saturday’s visitors will very likely take advantage of any opportunities that the Lions gift-wrap for them. Keeping things mistake-free will go a long way.

We’ve got ample proof this season that nothing is guaranteed, but if the Lions can lock down the left side of the defense, make hay in transition moments, and limit unforced errors, then they should be in a good position to take all three points from Saturday’s game. Vamos Orlando!

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Lion Links

Lion Links: 9/4/26

Martin Ojeda details his recovery from injury, Anna Moorhouse loaned to Manchester City, Orlando City’s U.S. Open Cup journey, and more.

Published

2 days ago

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September 4, 2026

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Image of Martin Ojeda celebrating a goal against New England.
Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

Three straight days of Orlando soccer starts tonight with Orlando City B’s road match against Inter Miami II at 7 p.m. Hopefully, Orlando’s teams do well over the next few days as crunch time is upon us when it comes to making the playoffs, especially for MLS NEXT Pro. For now though, let’s jump right into today’s links from around the soccer world!

Orlando City Prepares for San Diego FC

Orlando City will take on San Diego FC on Saturday in the first-ever game between the two clubs, and one of the storylines to keep an eye on is how much Martin Ojeda plays as he works his way back from injury. The Designated Player came off the bench late in Orlando’s 3-3 draw against Minnesota United in his first appearance since May 23. Not often injured, Ojeda spoke on how being off the field for over a month has shifted his perspective while training to return.

“You learn to value the moment much more. You learn to value every training session because, when you’re training on your own and you’re not available to your teammates, you feel uncomfortable,” Ojeda said. “You value being healthy more. It’s like everything in life. When you feel good, you live life almost on autopilot, so to speak. You go to work, you go home, you come back, you sleep. However, when you or someone close to you goes through an illness or something like that, you value the moment much more and become more conscious of what you’re experiencing.”

Pride Loan Anna Moorhouse to Manchester City

The Orlando Pride loaned goalkeeper Anna Moorhouse to Manchester City through January of 2027. Moorhouse joined the Pride prior to the 2022 season and helped the club win both the NWSL Championship and Shield in 2024. However, she has struggled this year alongside the rest of the Pride’s defense. Moorhouse hasn’t played in the past two games for the Pride, with Cosette Morche starting in her place. Her current contract with the Pride lasts through the 2027 NWSL season, so we’ll have to wait and see what her future with the club is when the loan ends.

Orlando City’s U.S. Open Cup Journey

Between the World Cup, regular season, and Leagues Cup this summer, it can be easy to forget that Orlando City is still in contention to win this year’s U.S. Open Cup. The Lions are in the semifinals of the tournament after crushing Atlanta United 4-1 in the quarterfinals back on May 19. The Lions won much tighter affairs prior to that win, with Javier Otero coming up with seven saves in a 1-0 win over FC Naples and Zakaria Taifi scoring in stoppage time to beat the New England Revolution 4-3 in the following match. Orlando will be on the road for its semifinal match against the Columbus Crew on Sept. 16, but the offense has received a boost due to the arrivals of Antoine Griezmann and Daryl Dike this summer.

MLS Transfer News Roundup

MLS signings continue to pour in as teams look to improve their squads for the rest of this season and beyond. The Colorado Rapids signed Ghanaian winger Ibrahim Sadiq from AZ Alkmaar, where he recorded 18 goals and seven assists in 85 appearances across three seasons with the Dutch club. San Diego also added an attacker by signing forward Cedric Bakambu, who joins as a free agent after playing at Real Betis. As for other notable moves from across the league, Real Salt Lake signed winger Dusan Zagar as an MLS U22 Initiative player, forward Lyle Foster joined the Houston Dynamo on loan, and the Columbus Crew continued to improve on offense by signing Moroccan winger Anass Zaroury on loan from Panathinaikos.

Free Kicks

  • Former Orlando Pride player Christina Burkenroad is retiring from professional soccer and Monterrey will have Saturday’s game against Toluca be a send-off match for her.

That’s all I have for you this time around. I hope you all have a fantastic Friday and rest of your weekend!

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