Orlando City
How Should We Make Sense of Orlando City’s Defense in 2024?
An evaluation of Orlando City’s defensive players thus far this season.
Everyone loves offense, no matter the sport. Whether it be baskets, goals, runs, touchdowns, tries, or any other manner of scoring, much more focus is often put on the scoring of points than the defensive side of preventing them. Since I started writing for The Mane Land, I have only written about offense, so just like when at a concert the band likes to give the drummers some love by focusing on them, it is time to shift to looking at Orlando City’s defense thus far this season.
Alas, at a high level, the initial dive into Orlando City’s 2024 defense does not look that great. Opponents have scored 36 goals already this season in only 22 games, as compared to 38 for the entire 2023 regular season (34 games). The chart below, created using data from Opta and fbref.com, compares Orlando City to the rest of MLS in some key defensive areas and the results are, shall we say, less than ideal. One definition before you look, “MLS avg” is the average of every other team except Orlando City.

A few notes on this data:
- I know you all remember from this math class, but Z-Scores measure how many standard deviations away from the average a value is. For example: if an average is 100 and the standard deviation is 5 then a value of 110 is 2 standard deviations more than the average, which would be a Z-score of 2. In general Z-Scores greater than 2 or less than -2 are pretty rare, and indicate that a value is an outlier as compared to the average.
- Orlando City is not good at winning balls in the air. But there is some good news. Orlando City’s defenders (47.1% win rate) are at least better than the team’s attacking players (38.4%), but the MLS average win rate for defenders is 57%, and Orlando City’s defenders also rank 29th when compared to every other squad’s defenders. As a reminder there are only 29 MLS teams, so you cannot rank below 29th. Not great, Bob.
- In general, I do not love xG (expected goals) as a stat. The reason why is that it simply measures the overall percentage of goals per shot from a location on the field, but it does not take into account who is shooting (my 7-year-old son, Brayden’s, xG is the same as Facundo Torres’ from any spot on the field. Until recently, this may have actually been legitimately true for both when they used their right foot.). That said, I do think it is helpful to look at xG as a relative measure of where shots are coming from, or in this case, where Orlando City is allowing shots to be taken from. Orlando City is giving up shots more frequently than other MLS teams from places that, historically, have generated more goals.
I want to go a little more in depth on the two items that show as green on that chart, Fouls committed per 90 minutes and recoveries per 90 minutes. Orlando City is doing well — very well — compared to the rest of MLS in both, but what does that really mean?
Committing fewer fouls than other teams seems like a good thing, but this is where numbers simply do not provide enough context to determine whether it is actually good or not to be a “clean” team and not foul. A few more tactical fouls in the buildup of play and maybe a few of the goals scored against Orlando City do not happen. A few more fouls on attacking players trying to beat an Orlando City player 1-v-1 early in the game, and perhaps they look to pass instead of taking on defenders late in the game. Orlando City has been elite this year at not fouling, but I do not think there is enough data here to conclude whether that is actually helpful.
Similarly, being in the top third of the league in recoveries (of loose balls) per 90 minutes may be another stat that sounds better than it is. Yes, it does show that the team is hustling and getting possession of the ball, and in general in soccer, if you have the ball, the other team cannot score. I do not want to take anything away from the hustle of this team, because it certainly does have a lot of players who give maximum effort, and winning two more loose balls per game than the average team could be the difference in winning and losing a game.
But it could also just mean that your own team is a little careless with the ball and you are one step quicker to get to the ball when it gets loose. I think for this particular stat it is more about hustle than good defense, so a positive but not necessarily an indication of defensive prowess.
So, we have some stats that show that as a team Orlando City has been in the mid to lower part of the league, but why? What is really driving this change from a team that was tied for seventh for fewest goals conceded during the 2023 season?
While goals against come against the entire team, in general, the primary group responsible for goals are those who play in the back. I’ve gone through every match and evaluated who was playing and when, and the chart below I think starts to really tell the tale of why the defense has not prevented as many goals as in previous seasons. (Note: Opponent SoT% is the percentage of shots the opponent put on target.)

I know this chart may have been a lot to look at, but that is also part of the point. The Lions have not had a lot of consistency in their back line this season, with 22 different groupings in the back playing at least one minute and six different groups playing at least 150 minutes. Breaking the list down, we can also see that:
- The defensive group that has played the most minutes has not even played one-third of the total minutes this season, so there has just not been a lot of game time for any one unit to play together and gel as a group.
- The defensive group that played approximately one-fifth of the minutes so far this season includes a midfielder, Wilder Cartagena, and was used as part of a back three playing with two wingbacks, not Orlando City’s preferred formation but one the club had to use a lot because of the next item on this list.
- Robin Jansson has already missed more minutes in 2024 (400) than he did in all of 2023 (180). The man is the captain for a reason, and he certainly would have played most if not all 400 of those minutes had he been available.
- Smoking Gun Alert: Jansson and David Brekalo have only played 610 minutes together all season (30.8% of all minutes), but in those minutes, their goals against per 90 minutes is only 1.33, which is 25% better (let me repeat, 25% better!) than Orlando City defensive lineups without those two playing at the same time (1.77 Goals Against per 90).
Not every lineup that Orlando City has rolled out with Jansson and Brekalo in the middle has been successful, and they still have only played a pretty low number of minutes together, but at more than 600 minutes played together there is now a good sample size to say that the data backs up that Orlando City’s best defensive lineup should include Jansson and Brekalo.
Another reason it is critical to have two stalwart center backs like Jansson and Brekalo on the field is that Óscar Pareja’s offensive game plan generally includes his outside backs making runs up the field to put pressure on the defense. The three primary outside backs who have played most of the minutes this year — Rafael Santos, Kyle Smith, and Dagur Dan Thórhallsson — all average between 2.0 and 2.2 shot-creating actions per 90 minutes, and next-in-line Mikey Halliday nearly did (1.7) last year as well, though he has been hurt for most of this season, so he has not played very much.
If you are going to have your outside backs bombing forward, which Dagur Dan in particular has aggressively been doing recently (2.9 shot-creating actions per 90 mins during his last five games), then you need to have stability staying home in the back, and both the data and the eye test tilt toward that stability being recommended to come from Jansson and Brekalo.
The outside back pairings do not show significant pluses or minuses based on which two are playing, so I expect that in the upcoming weeks Pareja will roll with who he thinks has the hot foot offensively, which in the last two matches has been Smith and Thórhallsson. Last year’s success primarily came with Santos and Thórhallsson on the outside though, so I expect that as Orlando City pushes for a playoff spot during the final few months of the season, they will still be tinkering a little bit. Constant change in the back has contributed to where Orlando City is in the defensive rankings and in the table, but at some point assuredly the back line will stop a-changin’. My dad will love that reference.
With the transfer window opening up I find it unlikely that Orlando City will look to add on the defensive side; the Lions have gotten through some injuries and the Euros, so barring injury (cross your fingers and knock on wood, thank you), they should hopefully have one consistent group to choose from for every game going forward.
The team took off last season once it really locked into a consistent 11 during the second half of the season, and there is no good defense for why that could not happen again this year.
Orlando City
Intelligence Report: Orlando City vs. New York City FC
Get up to speed on the Pigeons ahead of Saturday’s game, courtesy of someone who knows them best.
Happy Friday, everyone. Orlando City got a week of rest after taking care of business against D.C. United at home, and it returns to the purple palace Saturday night to face a New York City FC team with its back against the wall in the race for a playoff place.
A showdown with the Pigeons means I caught up with Matthew Mangam of New York Soccer Journal. As always, he was helpful in getting us up to speed on NYCFC, and we appreciate his help. I also answered some of his questions about Orlando City, so make sure you check them out over at their place!
Talk me through NYCFC’s summer transfer business. Who’s out, who’s in to replace them, and how have they performed?
Matthew Mangam: NYCFC’s summer business wasn’t anything groundbreaking. The club brought in striker Luighi on loan from SE Palmeiras and got back midfielder/defender James Sands, whose loan with St. Pauli ended.
Luighi started off well, bagging four goals in his first seven league appearances. But since then, the 20-year-old is on a five-game drought. To his credit, Luighi started only two of his last five games. As for Sands, this is his third stint at NYCFC, so the versatile 26-year-old was welcomed back with open arms.
The biggest acquisition this summer, though, was Bénie Traoré. The winger joined the club as a Designated Player from FC Basel in Switzerland, but it hasn’t gone well. In 15 league appearances, Traoré has one goal — a penalty kick that hit off the post and went in — and no assists.
The club’s last move that didn’t happen in the summer surprised everyone: adding free agent Matt Miazga. The veteran defender hasn’t made his debut yet, and I’m honestly not sure when he will.
New York City has been a wildly different team since the league restarted after the World Cup. What’s happened to cause the change in form?
MM: I honestly don’t know where to start with this one. There’s so much I could say, but if I did then I’d be here all day. I’ll narrow it down to this: NYCFC can’t play a complete 90 minutes.
NYCFC has conceded six goals in stoppage time this season, is 0-4-12 after falling behind 16 times, and is 4-5-6 at home. So, they can’t hang onto leads — they’ve lost seven points after the 75th minute — they have no come-from-behind wins, and they’re poor at home.
There are other smaller factors, like injuries, individual mistakes from usually solid players (Matt Freese and Sands), and players struggling, but, as I said, it’s a lot.
The playoffs are still in reach, as NYCFC is just two points out of eighth. What needs to happen in order to get above the line and stay there?
MM: Simply put, NYCFC needs to win all four remaining games, or, at the very least, go 3-1-0. Teams around them, like Toronto, Columbus, and Cincinnati, are picking up wins and building separation, so NYCFC is in a do-or-die situation.
Getting Alonso Martínez back and starting again is huge, but you can’t expect him to return from a brutal injury and save the team immediately; it’s not fair. Traoré has to step up and show why the club paid DP money for him — one lone goal that, in my opinion, fortunately went in, and no goals from open play is extremely concerning.
Also, Nico Fernández Mercau hasn’t scored in five matches. He’s getting double- and triple-marked because teams are now well aware of how talented the Argentine is, but he has to find a way back on the scoresheet in this stretch. NYCFC needs him to. So, so badly.
Will any players be unavailable due to injury, suspension, etc.? What is your projected starting lineup and score prediction?
MM: The only players out are the ones with long-term injuries: Keaton Parks, Kai Trewin, Maxi Moralez, Arnau Farnós, and Drew Baiera.
Given that NYCFC needs to win or the season is practically over, I expect Head Coach Pascal Jansen to leave it all out there with his best possible lineup:
Matt Freese; Kevin O’Toole, James Sands, Thiago Martins, Tayvon Gray; Andres Perea, Aiden O’Neill; Hannes Wolf, Nico Fernández Mercau, Agustin Ojeda; Alonso Martínez.
I think Nico Fernández Mercau and Alonso Martínez score, but it won’t be enough, as Antoine Griezmann gets a brace and both teams settle for a 2-2 draw.
Thank you to Matt for his excellent refresher on NYCFC. Vamos Orlando!

Lion Links
Lion Links: 10/23/26
Orlando City prepares for New York City FC, Antoine Griezmann’s impact in Orlando, U.S. will host FIFA Women’s Club World Cup, and more.
Happy Friday, Mane Landers! It’s been a pretty nice week for me, as I was able to watch all of Slow Horses and finish reading Bad Words by Rioghnach Robinson, both of which were brilliant. Attention now turns to this weekend’s soccer, with both Orlando City and the Orlando Pride playing at home over the next couple of days. Let’s get to the links!
Orlando City Prepares for New York City FC
The Lions host New York City FC on Saturday in one of the marquee matchups in MLS as the regular season nears its conclusion. Plenty has changed since Orlando’s 5-0 loss to NYCFC on March 7. The Lions have clawed their way up the table while the Pigeons have only won once in their past 13 league games. NYCFC enters this match after a 1-1 draw with LAFC that included an equalizer by former Lion Andres Perea to give the team a valuable point amid the playoff race. Nicolas Fernandez Mercau, Luighi, and Benie Traore are all NYCFC players the Lions will need to keep in check, or else it could end up being another high-scoring affair in the City Beautiful.
Antoine Griezmann’s Impact on Orlando’s Offense
Orlando’s wait for Antoine Griezmann to join in the summer has proven to be well worth it, as he’s transformed Orlando’s attack into a force to be reckoned with just as the playoffs near. Although Griezmann wasn’t able to enjoy a fairytale ending with Atletico Madrid by lifting the Copa del Rey or Champions League trophies this year, he’s breathed life into an Orlando side that struggled mightily prior to his arrival. The 35-year-old has recorded 12 goals and seven assists in just 14 appearances this season. Not only has he excelled when it comes to getting the ball in the net, but he’s done well in terms of defensive metrics and intangibles as well.
U.S. Will Host Women’s Club World Cup
The inaugural FIFA Women’s Club World Cup will be held in the U.S. in January of 2028 with the host cities still to be determined. There will be 19 clubs taking part, with Gotham, Arsenal, Barcelona, and Club America having already qualified along with three other teams so far. This tournament is sandwiched between the 2027 Women’s World Cup in Brazil and the 2028 Summer Olympics in Los Angeles, so there’s plenty of exciting women’s soccer to look forward to in the coming years.
U.S. U-17 Women’s National Team Wins at World Cup
The United States U-17 Women’s National Team won 6-1 against Kenya in the group stage of the FIA U-17 Women’s World Cup in Morocco, clinching a spot in the round of 16. Maggie DiMaria scored four goals to bring her total to 10 across just two games. The U.S. will play its final group game on Sunday against China PR, which also won both of its games against Kenya and Samoa to secure a spot in the knockout stage. The winner of this group will get to avoid a match with Spain in the round of 16, so there’s still plenty to play for before the next round gets underway.
Free Kicks
- The first leg of the Concacaf Nations League quarterfinal between the United States Men’s National Team and Haiti has been moved from Kingston to Miami. Haiti has had to play games outside of the country due to unrest and submitted a request to Concacaf to play in the country of its opponent.
- American center back Naomi Girma is now dealing with a calf injury that may sideline her for a few weeks according to Chelsea Head Coach Sonia Bompastor. She missed out on the team’s recent friendlies against Spain and may be absent for the Concacaf W Championship quarterfinal against El Salvador next month too.
- The United States Women’s Cerebral Palsy National Team beat Ireland 15-0 to advance to the IFCPF Women’s World Cup final, which takes place today against Australia. Annie Wickett scored five goals with four other players scoring braces.
- The San Diego Wave signed defender Mimi Van Zanten to a contract extension through the 2029 season. She’s made 27 appearances for San Diego during her rookie season, helping the club keep pace in the NWSL Shield race.
- After being stretchered off the field due to a head injury in the U.S. Open Cup final, St. Louis City goalkeeper Roman Burki is alert and in good spirits, according to the club.
That’s all I have for you this time around. I hope you all have a fantastic Friday and rest of your weekend!
Orlando City
Orlando’s October Outburst Originated Months Ago
Orlando City’s October offensive surge may look like a recent development, but the Lions have been scoring at an impressive rate for months.
We do not watch nearly enough Sesame Street in my house, but ever since the summer we say that A is for Antoine when the show discusses the alphabet. Sadly, this replaced A is for Andrew, which is my name, because Antoine Griezmann is more popular than me in my house. I cannot say that I am surprised, but I can say that it hurts just a little bit. More than a little bit.
For the past few years, O has been for Ojeda, as in Martín Ojeda, the man who is now Orlando City’s all-time leading goal scorer. This October, however, O is for offense, as the Lions have scored 10 goals during their three October matches, and that tally leads all of MLS this month. Orlando City’s offense has actually been on point for several months now, as you can see from the chart below (MLS games only):
| Month | Goals Scored | Games Played | Goals per Game |
|---|---|---|---|
| February | 1 | 1 | 1.0 |
| March | 4 | 4 | 1.0 |
| April | 7 | 5 | 1.4 |
| May | 11 | 5 | 2.2 |
| July* | 5 | 2 | 2.5 |
| August | 9 | 5 | 1.8 |
| September | 11 | 5 | 2.2 |
| October | 10 | 3 | 3.3 |
| Total | 58 | 30 | 1.9 |
- *There were no games in June due to the FIFA Men’s World Cup
Griezmann arrived for the July games, but even before that, the offense had started to heat up in May. Although May 1 is an arbitrary date, if we use it as a benchmark it allows us to capture two-thirds of Orlando City’s season, as the first 10 games happened before May and the team has now played 30 in total. Since May, the Lions rank fourth in MLS in goals scored with 46, sitting behind only Miami (54), Philadelphia (52), and St. Louis (47).
In a matter of perfect symmetry, the Lions also rank fourth in goals allowed, and by rank fourth I most certainly do not mean they are among the best defensive teams in the league. Orlando City has allowed 41 goals in the last 20 games, which is an average of more than two goals allowed per game but is also fewer than the 46 the team has scored. I know you already did the math in your head, but 46 – 41 = 5, and that +5 goal differential since May puts the Lions at eighth overall in MLS.
Perhaps we are now in the Inception timeline, because in yet another matter of symmetry Orlando City has also earned the eighth-most points (34) since May 1. This is yet another reminder of how poor of a start the club had this season, with seven losses in those first 10 games.
Since then, however, the 2026 team has performed like the teams of the past few years, but even with a top 10 performance for two-thirds of the season, it has not been able to climb above seventh in the Eastern Conference. This is because four of the five best teams since May are in the same conference, and the ninth and 10th hottest teams, right behind Orlando City, are also in the East. For those of you counting, hopefully in a voice like The Count’s (“Ah, ah,ah!”), that makes seven of the top 10 Eastern teams, so it is no wonder that the Lions are still in a precarious playoff position.
Saturday’s game against New York City FC is, on paper, the easiest of the remaining four games, but then again, the Pigeons did dirty pigeon things all over the Lions in the first matchup, winning that game 5-0. A repeat performance would wipe away the +5 goal differential Orlando has since May, but in addition to the fact that this game will be played on an actual soccer field, there is another pretty major difference between the early season Lions and the current Lions: Griezmann.
The French superstar is up to 12 goals scored and six primary assists (to go with one secondary assist in only 14 MLS games, which is wild), and he and Ojeda make up one of only seven tandems in the league in which both players have at least 12 goals each (Ojeda has 15). Only three tandems have at least 13 goals each (Miami’s Lionel Messi and Luis Suárez, Cincinnati’s Kévin Denkey and Evander, and Nashville’s Sam Surridge and Hany Mukhtar), and with another goal from Griezmann, the two Lions would become the second pair in club history to each score at least 13 goals in a season, joining Facundo Torres and Duncan McGuire in 2023.
Marco Pašalić scored in the most recent game, and both Iván Angulo and Justin Ellis have recorded double-digit goal contributions, so let’s hope the team’s recent offensive onslaught continues, because with all the injuries on the back line and some difficult opponents coming up on the schedule, the Lions will likely need to put up multiple goals if they are going to get results and qualify for the playoffs for the seventh consecutive season.
And considering how poor the start to the season was, if they can orchestrate that it would be outstanding. Let’s gooooooooo.
Vamos Orlando!
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