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How Should We Make Sense of Orlando City’s Defense in 2024?

An evaluation of Orlando City’s defensive players thus far this season.

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2 years ago

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

Everyone loves offense, no matter the sport. Whether it be baskets, goals, runs, touchdowns, tries, or any other manner of scoring, much more focus is often put on the scoring of points than the defensive side of preventing them. Since I started writing for The Mane Land, I have only written about offense, so just like when at a concert the band likes to give the drummers some love by focusing on them, it is time to shift to looking at Orlando City’s defense thus far this season.

Alas, at a high level, the initial dive into Orlando City’s 2024 defense does not look that great. Opponents have scored 36 goals already this season in only 22 games, as compared to 38 for the entire 2023 regular season (34 games). The chart below, created using data from Opta and fbref.com, compares Orlando City to the rest of MLS in some key defensive areas and the results are, shall we say, less than ideal. One definition before you look, “MLS avg” is the average of every other team except Orlando City.

A few notes on this data:

  • I know you all remember from this math class, but Z-Scores measure how many standard deviations away from the average a value is. For example: if an average is 100 and the standard deviation is 5 then a value of 110 is 2 standard deviations more than the average, which would be a Z-score of 2. In general Z-Scores greater than 2 or less than -2 are pretty rare, and indicate that a value is an outlier as compared to the average.
  • Orlando City is not good at winning balls in the air. But there is some good news. Orlando City’s defenders (47.1% win rate) are at least better than the team’s attacking players (38.4%), but the MLS average win rate for defenders is 57%, and Orlando City’s defenders also rank 29th when compared to every other squad’s defenders. As a reminder there are only 29 MLS teams, so you cannot rank below 29th. Not great, Bob.
  • In general, I do not love xG (expected goals) as a stat. The reason why is that it simply measures the overall percentage of goals per shot from a location on the field, but it does not take into account who is shooting (my 7-year-old son, Brayden’s, xG is the same as Facundo Torres’ from any spot on the field. Until recently, this may have actually been legitimately true for both when they used their right foot.). That said, I do think it is helpful to look at xG as a relative measure of where shots are coming from, or in this case, where Orlando City is allowing shots to be taken from. Orlando City is giving up shots more frequently than other MLS teams from places that, historically, have generated more goals.

I want to go a little more in depth on the two items that show as green on that chart, Fouls committed per 90 minutes and recoveries per 90 minutes. Orlando City is doing well β€” very well β€” compared to the rest of MLS in both, but what does that really mean?

Committing fewer fouls than other teams seems like a good thing, but this is where numbers simply do not provide enough context to determine whether it is actually good or not to be a “clean” team and not foul. A few more tactical fouls in the buildup of play and maybe a few of the goals scored against Orlando City do not happen. A few more fouls on attacking players trying to beat an Orlando City player 1-v-1 early in the game, and perhaps they look to pass instead of taking on defenders late in the game. Orlando City has been elite this year at not fouling, but I do not think there is enough data here to conclude whether that is actually helpful.

Similarly, being in the top third of the league in recoveries (of loose balls) per 90 minutes may be another stat that sounds better than it is. Yes, it does show that the team is hustling and getting possession of the ball, and in general in soccer, if you have the ball, the other team cannot score. I do not want to take anything away from the hustle of this team, because it certainly does have a lot of players who give maximum effort, and winning two more loose balls per game than the average team could be the difference in winning and losing a game.

But it could also just mean that your own team is a little careless with the ball and you are one step quicker to get to the ball when it gets loose. I think for this particular stat it is more about hustle than good defense, so a positive but not necessarily an indication of defensive prowess.

So, we have some stats that show that as a team Orlando City has been in the mid to lower part of the league, but why? What is really driving this change from a team that was tied for seventh for fewest goals conceded during the 2023 season?

While goals against come against the entire team, in general, the primary group responsible for goals are those who play in the back. I’ve gone through every match and evaluated who was playing and when, and the chart below I think starts to really tell the tale of why the defense has not prevented as many goals as in previous seasons. (Note: Opponent SoT% is the percentage of shots the opponent put on target.)

I know this chart may have been a lot to look at, but that is also part of the point. The Lions have not had a lot of consistency in their back line this season, with 22 different groupings in the back playing at least one minute and six different groups playing at least 150 minutes. Breaking the list down, we can also see that:

  • The defensive group that has played the most minutes has not even played one-third of the total minutes this season, so there has just not been a lot of game time for any one unit to play together and gel as a group.
  • The defensive group that played approximately one-fifth of the minutes so far this season includes a midfielder, Wilder Cartagena, and was used as part of a back three playing with two wingbacks, not Orlando City’s preferred formation but one the club had to use a lot because of the next item on this list.
  • Robin Jansson has already missed more minutes in 2024 (400) than he did in all of 2023 (180). The man is the captain for a reason, and he certainly would have played most if not all 400 of those minutes had he been available.
  • Smoking Gun Alert: Jansson and David Brekalo have only played 610 minutes together all season (30.8% of all minutes), but in those minutes, their goals against per 90 minutes is only 1.33, which is 25% better (let me repeat, 25% better!) than Orlando City defensive lineups without those two playing at the same time (1.77 Goals Against per 90).

Not every lineup that Orlando City has rolled out with Jansson and Brekalo in the middle has been successful, and they still have only played a pretty low number of minutes together, but at more than 600 minutes played together there is now a good sample size to say that the data backs up that Orlando City’s best defensive lineup should include Jansson and Brekalo.

Another reason it is critical to have two stalwart center backs like Jansson and Brekalo on the field is that Γ“scar Pareja’s offensive game plan generally includes his outside backs making runs up the field to put pressure on the defense. The three primary outside backs who have played most of the minutes this year β€” Rafael Santos, Kyle Smith, and Dagur Dan ThΓ³rhallsson β€” all average between 2.0 and 2.2 shot-creating actions per 90 minutes, and next-in-line Mikey Halliday nearly did (1.7) last year as well, though he has been hurt for most of this season, so he has not played very much.

If you are going to have your outside backs bombing forward, which Dagur Dan in particular has aggressively been doing recently (2.9 shot-creating actions per 90 mins during his last five games), then you need to have stability staying home in the back, and both the data and the eye test tilt toward that stability being recommended to come from Jansson and Brekalo.

The outside back pairings do not show significant pluses or minuses based on which two are playing, so I expect that in the upcoming weeks Pareja will roll with who he thinks has the hot foot offensively, which in the last two matches has been Smith and ThΓ³rhallsson. Last year’s success primarily came with Santos and ThΓ³rhallsson on the outside though, so I expect that as Orlando City pushes for a playoff spot during the final few months of the season, they will still be tinkering a little bit. Constant change in the back has contributed to where Orlando City is in the defensive rankings and in the table, but at some point assuredly the back line will stop a-changin’. My dad will love that reference.

With the transfer window opening up I find it unlikely that Orlando City will look to add on the defensive side; the Lions have gotten through some injuries and the Euros, so barring injury (cross your fingers and knock on wood, thank you), they should hopefully have one consistent group to choose from for every game going forward.

The team took off last season once it really locked into a consistent 11 during the second half of the season, and there is no good defense for why that could not happen again this year.

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Orlando City

Flashback Friday: July 4, 2023 vs. Toronto FC

Let’s rewind to an Independence Day affair that had plenty of offensive fireworks.

Published

3 days ago

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July 3, 2026

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

The United States Men’s National Team picked up a gritty, resilient 2-0 win over Bosnia and Herzegovina in the Round of 32 on Wednesday, and will now face Belgium in a rematch of the 2014 World Cup Round of 16 next Monday. While we patiently wait for that game, it’s time to continue our Friday tradition of revisiting some classic Orlando City games from years past.

Last week, we rewound to a high octane affair against the Chicago Fire in late June 2022, that saw the Lions douse Chicago’s flames and pick up a much-needed 4-2 victory. Today, let’s hop in the time machine and travel back to Independence Day 2023, when Toronto FC came to town.

At the time of Toronto’s visit, things were going relatively smoothly for OCSC. The team was riding a three-match unbeaten streak and had scored five goals across those three games. Oscar Pareja lined up his team in its customary 4-2-3-1, with Pedro Gallese in goal; a back line of Rafael Santos, Robin Jansson, Antonio Carlos, and Kyle Smith; Wilder Cartagena and Cesar Araujo in the double pivot; Ivan Angulo, Mauricio Pereyra, and Facundo Torres in the attacking midfield; and Duncan McGuire up top.

Orlando very nearly got a goal a little under 10 minutes into the game. Former OCSC goalkeeper Greg Ranjitsingh knocked down a cross in front of the net, and while Pereyra was first to the ball, he could only blast it over the bar with the goal at his mercy. Fortunately, that miss would not come back to haunt the Lions, who bagged the game’s first goal in the 16th minute. Angulo sucked defenders toward him on the left edge of the box before releasing Santos out wide. The fullback played a peach of a first-time, curling cross to the back post, where Araujo was waiting to power a diving header into the side netting at the far post for his first league goal.

That goal broke the game open, and Orlando got another goal six minutes later to double the advantage. It initially looked like a carbon copy of the first goal, with Santos out in space on the left side of the box, sending in a curled cross. The ball deflected off a defender and came in low toward the goal. Ranjitsingh waited for the ball instead of going to claim it, and that allowed McGuire to nip in front of him and get a touch on the ball to sneak it in at the near post.

Orlando nearly got even more goals inside the half hour, with Torres and McGuire both going close in quick succession. Federico Bernardeschi smashed a shot off the post in the 28th minute, and the Lions seemed to be losing focus a little bit, with the hydration break a welcome pause in play when it came. OCSC came out of the pause well, and Pereyra put Angulo through in the 36th minute, but the Colombian couldn’t bring the ball under control and fashion a shooting chance.

Orlando led in every meaningful statistical category at halftime. The Lions had more possession (55.8%-44.2%), shots (6-2), shots on goal (2-0), corners (4-2), and passing accuracy (89.5%-85%). Most importantly, they led 2-0 on the scoreboard.

Toronto tried to change things at halftime by introducing three substitutes, but Orlando settled back into the game quickly and negated the efforts of interim TFC manager Terry Dunfield. Angulo and Torres forced Ranjitsingh into a pair of saves in the 53rd and 55th minutes, and the Lions tried to press their advantage by sending on Ramiro Enrique and Martin Ojeda in the 57th minute for McGuire and Pereyra.

The game then changed in a big way in the 62nd minute. Cartagena and Bernardeschi exchanged words after a turnover, and the Italian winger put Cartagena on the ground with the help of a little theatrics from the midfielder. Bernardeschi had already been yellow carded in the 47th minute for a foul on Smith, and the altercation with Wilder saw him receive a second yellow and his marching orders to go along with it.

With TFC down to 10 men, the Lions started to tee off at goal. Ojeda came close to getting the team’s third in the 69th minute, with Enrique doing the same in the 71st but missing just wide. When the goal finally came, it was from the unlikely foot of Dagur Dan Thorhallsson, who had been subbed into the game alongside Ercan Kara in the 68th minute.

Thorhallsson made a great run behind the defense in the 77th minute, and Araujo picked him out well. Ranjitsingh came out to try to play sweeper-keeper, but DDT beat him to the ball easily, touched it around the former Lion, and rolled it into the empty net to score his first MLS goal and make it 3-0.

Toronto had a halfway decent chance to pull one back in the 82nd minute, but Brandon Servania’s long-distance attempt at chipping Gallese ended up missing high and settling on the roof of the net. Kara then iced the game in the 84th minute. Araujo fired a pass to Ojeda at the top of the box, and even though he had trouble bringing it under control, he had the presence of mind to backheel it toward goal for the big Austrian to pounce on and fire a low, hard shot into the net for 4-0.

Ojeda nearly got a goal of his own two minutes later but had a great effort saved in what was the last truly dangerous moment of the game.

As was the case at halftime, when the final whistle blew, the Lions had created plenty of fireworks on both the scoreboard and the stat sheet. OCSC finished with more possession (59.6%-40.4%), shots (18-6), shots on target (9-0), corners (8-2), and passing accuracy (91%-84.8%).

Marcus Mitchell had Player Grades for this one, and he named Araujo the Man of the Match with a grade of 8 out of 10 for his one-goal/one-assist effort. The other high performers on the night were Antonio Carlos, and Cartagena, who each graded out at 7.5 out of 10.

That’ll do it for this week’s trip down memory lane. We’ve been getting spoiled lately, with Orlando putting up four goals in back-to-back time machine games, and it’s made for an enjoyable glimpse into years gone by. With any luck, next week’s edition will be similarly entertaining. Vamos Orlando!

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Lion Links

Lion Links: 7/3/26

Orlando Pride visit Angel City tonight, NWSL free agents to watch, Portugal and Spain advance, and more.

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3 days ago

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July 3, 2026

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Image courtesy of Orlando Pride / Jeremy Reper

Happy Friday, Mane Landers! I don’t have many plans this holiday weekend beyond enjoying some soccer and indulging myself in a few hot dogs to celebrate. It should be a fun weekend, but make sure to stay safe out there if you plan on setting off any fireworks. For now though, let’s get to the links!

Orlando Pride Take On Angel City FC Tonight

The NWSL resumes today and the Orlando Pride will play against Angel City FC at 10 p.m. in their first match since a 3-1 win over Bay FC on May 29. That win capped off a six-game month for the Pride, including a stretch of three straight road games. Meanwhile, Angel City parted ways with Alex Straus over the break after only winning once in May, and tonight’s match will be Leif Gunnar Smerud’s first since being named interim head coach. It can be tough playing an opponent with a new coach, but hopefully the Pride can bring all three points back to Orlando.

Top NWSL Free Agents to Watch

Free agency is officially underway in the NWSL and the list of players with contracts expiring at the end of the year includes some of the league’s best players. Orlando Pride star Marta was listed as one of the top free agents to watch, though I would be pretty shocked if she plays for another NWSL club if she leaves Orlando after this season. Leicy Santos, Debinha, and Rose Lavelle are other skilled attackers who will become free agents, but Gotham FC goalkeeper Ann-Katrin Berger is sure to have plenty of clubs reaching out for her talents as well.

Portugal and Spain Advance in World Cup

This World Cup hasn’t been short on excitement and that continued with Portugal’s 2-1 win against Croatia. After a scoreless first half, Croatia took the lead thanks to a goal from Ivan Perisic, but Cristiano Ronaldo equalized from the penalty spot and the game was moments away from heading to extra time. Goncalo Ramos gave Portugal the goal it needed to advance deep in stoppage time, but Croatia nearly came back with a goal that was disallowed due to an offside call. Spain cruised to a 3-0 win against Austria to book its spot in the round of 16 as well. Mikel Oyarzabal scored twice for his second brace of the tournament, with Marc Cucurella assisting on both of his goals. Spain and Portugal will square off in the next round in what should be a fantastic match. Switzerland and Algeria kicked off late.

The round of 32 wraps up today with a trio of matches, starting with Egypt’s game against Australia. Cape Verde will then look to shock the world when it plays Argentina, and the late game will be between Colombia and Ghana.

Columbus Crew Sign New Designated Player

The Columbus Crew have signed Spanish midfielder Brais Mendez to a Designated Player contract through the 2028-2029 season with a club option for the 2029-2030 season. Mendez has spent the past four La Liga seasons with Real Sociedad, recording 33 goals and 24 assists in 166 appearances. He gives the crew some additional firepower as reports swirl regarding Diego Rossi’s departure for CF Monterrey. While maybe not in the same headline-grabbing tier of MLS summer signings like Antoine Griezmann or Robert Lewandowski, Mendez is a big addition to the league as the Eastern Conference arms race continues.

Free Kicks

  • CF Montreal sent $2.1 million in General Allocation Money to Austin FC in exchange for midfielder Dani Pereira. Selected with the first overall pick in the 2021 MLS SuperDraft, Pereira has contributed six goals and 23 assists in 165 appearances across all competitions for Austin.
  • Real Salt Lake reportedly rejected a transfer bid around $3.5 million from CF Monterrey for midfielder Diego Luna.
  • American winger Emma Sears reportedly requested a trade from Racing Louisville, although the club is not reportedly interested in a midseason transfer.
  • The United States Men’s National Team’s win over Bosnia and Herzegovina had record viewership. Understandably so, too, as I spent most of the match pacing around my living room.

That’s all I have for you this time around. I hope you all have a fantastic Friday and rest of your weekend!

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Lion Links

Lion Links: 7/2/26

USMNT shuts out Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kat Asman loaned to Denver Summit FC, MLS transfer news, and more.

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4 days ago

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July 2, 2026

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Image of Pride goalkeeper Kat Asman
Image courtesy of Orlando Pride

Wednesday nights are starting to feel magical. Orlando City has thrived this year when playing on Wednesdays, and now the United States Men’s National Team has provided us with a reason to tackle this Thursday at full force. Before we dive into that result and the rest of today’s links, let’s all wish a happy birthday to Orlando City defender Tahir Reid-Brown!

USMNT Survives Red Card to Advance

The U.S. won 2-0 against Bosnia and Herzegovina in an emotional rollercoaster of a match in the World Cup’s round of 32. Folarin Balogun got the U.S. on the board at a crucial time right before halftime by scoring his third goal of the tournament. But the game flipped on its head in the second half when Balogun was shown a harsh red card by the referee after video review for a foul when he accidentally came down on the back of an opponent’s foot. The Yanks fought hard to make up for the difference of being down a player and doubled their lead after earning a free kick right outside the box. Malik Tillman’s shot went up and over the wall and into the net for a goal U.S. fans will be replaying over and over again.

The U.S. did well to grind out the win after that second goal, with former Lion Alex Freeman doing his part on defense to help shut out Bosnia and Herzegovina. It was a memorable win, and now the U.S. will turn its focus to its round-of-16 matchup against Belgium on Monday.

Pride Loan Goalkeeper Kat Asman to Denver Summit

The Orlando Pride loaned goalkeeper Kat Asman to the Denver Summit for the remainder of the 2026 NWSL season. Asman is coming off of a loan with Lexington SC in the Gainbridge Super League, where she played every minute of the season to help Lexington win the title. She posted 11 clean sheets with Lexington last season and won the league’s Golden Glove as well. Asman has yet to make an appearance for the Pride since joining prior to the 2025 season, and her contract expires at the end of the season. She now heads to Denver, where Abby Smith has done well in goal as the expansion team’s starter.

MLS Transfer News Roundup

Real Salt Lake sent $625,000 in General Allocation Money (GAM) to Atlanta United in exchange for winger Saba Lobjanidze and a third-round pick in the 2028 MLS SuperDraft, with another $100,000 in GAM going Atlanta’s way if he re-signs with Real Salt Lake. The Columbus Crew fully acquired defender Andres Herrera from River Plate after an extended loan, signing him to a contract through the 2028-2029 season. The LA Galaxy transferred defender Mauricio Cuevas to Santos Laguna, the New England Revolution added forward Wilson Harris, and Sporting Kansas City signed center back Moises Mosquera from FC Juarez. The San Jose Earthquakes are reportedly close to signing Scottish goalkeeper Angus Gunn, with Daniel heading to FC Dallas in a trade if that happens. It’s somewhat surprising considering Daniel has done well to help San Jose only concede 15 goals this season.

🏴󠁧󠁒󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 Sources: San Jose Earthquakes closing in on a deal to sign Scotland int'l GK Angus Gunn.πŸ‡§πŸ‡· Sources: FC Dallas has agreed to a deal to acquire GK Daniel from San Jose.βž• Daniel trade is contingent on Gunn signing being formalized.

— Tom Bogert (@tombogert.bsky.social) 2026-07-01T16:34:02.297Z

European Nations Move On After Dramatic Comebacks

This World Cup continues to deliver thrilling games during this new round-of-32 phase. Senegal looked certain to go through to the next round until Belgium scored a pair of goals after the 85th minute to knot the game at 2-2 and send it into extra time. The game was decided by a penalty, but not in a shootout, as a foul in the box resulted in Youri Tielemans scoring from the spot to give Belgium the victory. In Atlanta, Harry Kane scored twice to rescue England in a 2-1 win over the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Brian Cipanga gave the Congo an early lead, but Kane struck twice in the second half, with his winner being one of the best goals of the tournament so far.

England is now set to face Mexico at the Azteca on Sunday in what should be a great game. As for today’s action, Orlando City winger Marco Pasalic and Croatia will take on Portugal in a matchup between European heavyweights. The winner of that match will face whoever prevails today between Spain and Austria, with Switzerland and Algeria squaring off in the late night match.

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That’s all I have for you this time around. I hope you all have a wonderful Thursday and rest of your week!

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