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How Should We Make Sense of Orlando City’s Defense in 2024?

An evaluation of Orlando City’s defensive players thus far this season.

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2 years ago

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

Everyone loves offense, no matter the sport. Whether it be baskets, goals, runs, touchdowns, tries, or any other manner of scoring, much more focus is often put on the scoring of points than the defensive side of preventing them. Since I started writing for The Mane Land, I have only written about offense, so just like when at a concert the band likes to give the drummers some love by focusing on them, it is time to shift to looking at Orlando City’s defense thus far this season.

Alas, at a high level, the initial dive into Orlando City’s 2024 defense does not look that great. Opponents have scored 36 goals already this season in only 22 games, as compared to 38 for the entire 2023 regular season (34 games). The chart below, created using data from Opta and fbref.com, compares Orlando City to the rest of MLS in some key defensive areas and the results are, shall we say, less than ideal. One definition before you look, “MLS avg” is the average of every other team except Orlando City.

A few notes on this data:

  • I know you all remember from this math class, but Z-Scores measure how many standard deviations away from the average a value is. For example: if an average is 100 and the standard deviation is 5 then a value of 110 is 2 standard deviations more than the average, which would be a Z-score of 2. In general Z-Scores greater than 2 or less than -2 are pretty rare, and indicate that a value is an outlier as compared to the average.
  • Orlando City is not good at winning balls in the air. But there is some good news. Orlando City’s defenders (47.1% win rate) are at least better than the team’s attacking players (38.4%), but the MLS average win rate for defenders is 57%, and Orlando City’s defenders also rank 29th when compared to every other squad’s defenders. As a reminder there are only 29 MLS teams, so you cannot rank below 29th. Not great, Bob.
  • In general, I do not love xG (expected goals) as a stat. The reason why is that it simply measures the overall percentage of goals per shot from a location on the field, but it does not take into account who is shooting (my 7-year-old son, Brayden’s, xG is the same as Facundo Torres’ from any spot on the field. Until recently, this may have actually been legitimately true for both when they used their right foot.). That said, I do think it is helpful to look at xG as a relative measure of where shots are coming from, or in this case, where Orlando City is allowing shots to be taken from. Orlando City is giving up shots more frequently than other MLS teams from places that, historically, have generated more goals.

I want to go a little more in depth on the two items that show as green on that chart, Fouls committed per 90 minutes and recoveries per 90 minutes. Orlando City is doing well — very well — compared to the rest of MLS in both, but what does that really mean?

Committing fewer fouls than other teams seems like a good thing, but this is where numbers simply do not provide enough context to determine whether it is actually good or not to be a “clean” team and not foul. A few more tactical fouls in the buildup of play and maybe a few of the goals scored against Orlando City do not happen. A few more fouls on attacking players trying to beat an Orlando City player 1-v-1 early in the game, and perhaps they look to pass instead of taking on defenders late in the game. Orlando City has been elite this year at not fouling, but I do not think there is enough data here to conclude whether that is actually helpful.

Similarly, being in the top third of the league in recoveries (of loose balls) per 90 minutes may be another stat that sounds better than it is. Yes, it does show that the team is hustling and getting possession of the ball, and in general in soccer, if you have the ball, the other team cannot score. I do not want to take anything away from the hustle of this team, because it certainly does have a lot of players who give maximum effort, and winning two more loose balls per game than the average team could be the difference in winning and losing a game.

But it could also just mean that your own team is a little careless with the ball and you are one step quicker to get to the ball when it gets loose. I think for this particular stat it is more about hustle than good defense, so a positive but not necessarily an indication of defensive prowess.

So, we have some stats that show that as a team Orlando City has been in the mid to lower part of the league, but why? What is really driving this change from a team that was tied for seventh for fewest goals conceded during the 2023 season?

While goals against come against the entire team, in general, the primary group responsible for goals are those who play in the back. I’ve gone through every match and evaluated who was playing and when, and the chart below I think starts to really tell the tale of why the defense has not prevented as many goals as in previous seasons. (Note: Opponent SoT% is the percentage of shots the opponent put on target.)

I know this chart may have been a lot to look at, but that is also part of the point. The Lions have not had a lot of consistency in their back line this season, with 22 different groupings in the back playing at least one minute and six different groups playing at least 150 minutes. Breaking the list down, we can also see that:

  • The defensive group that has played the most minutes has not even played one-third of the total minutes this season, so there has just not been a lot of game time for any one unit to play together and gel as a group.
  • The defensive group that played approximately one-fifth of the minutes so far this season includes a midfielder, Wilder Cartagena, and was used as part of a back three playing with two wingbacks, not Orlando City’s preferred formation but one the club had to use a lot because of the next item on this list.
  • Robin Jansson has already missed more minutes in 2024 (400) than he did in all of 2023 (180). The man is the captain for a reason, and he certainly would have played most if not all 400 of those minutes had he been available.
  • Smoking Gun Alert: Jansson and David Brekalo have only played 610 minutes together all season (30.8% of all minutes), but in those minutes, their goals against per 90 minutes is only 1.33, which is 25% better (let me repeat, 25% better!) than Orlando City defensive lineups without those two playing at the same time (1.77 Goals Against per 90).

Not every lineup that Orlando City has rolled out with Jansson and Brekalo in the middle has been successful, and they still have only played a pretty low number of minutes together, but at more than 600 minutes played together there is now a good sample size to say that the data backs up that Orlando City’s best defensive lineup should include Jansson and Brekalo.

Another reason it is critical to have two stalwart center backs like Jansson and Brekalo on the field is that Óscar Pareja’s offensive game plan generally includes his outside backs making runs up the field to put pressure on the defense. The three primary outside backs who have played most of the minutes this year — Rafael Santos, Kyle Smith, and Dagur Dan Thórhallsson — all average between 2.0 and 2.2 shot-creating actions per 90 minutes, and next-in-line Mikey Halliday nearly did (1.7) last year as well, though he has been hurt for most of this season, so he has not played very much.

If you are going to have your outside backs bombing forward, which Dagur Dan in particular has aggressively been doing recently (2.9 shot-creating actions per 90 mins during his last five games), then you need to have stability staying home in the back, and both the data and the eye test tilt toward that stability being recommended to come from Jansson and Brekalo.

The outside back pairings do not show significant pluses or minuses based on which two are playing, so I expect that in the upcoming weeks Pareja will roll with who he thinks has the hot foot offensively, which in the last two matches has been Smith and Thórhallsson. Last year’s success primarily came with Santos and Thórhallsson on the outside though, so I expect that as Orlando City pushes for a playoff spot during the final few months of the season, they will still be tinkering a little bit. Constant change in the back has contributed to where Orlando City is in the defensive rankings and in the table, but at some point assuredly the back line will stop a-changin’. My dad will love that reference.

With the transfer window opening up I find it unlikely that Orlando City will look to add on the defensive side; the Lions have gotten through some injuries and the Euros, so barring injury (cross your fingers and knock on wood, thank you), they should hopefully have one consistent group to choose from for every game going forward.

The team took off last season once it really locked into a consistent 11 during the second half of the season, and there is no good defense for why that could not happen again this year.

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Orlando City

Four Names to Consider in Orlando City’s Coaching Search

Orlando City needs a new head coach, and there are a few names who merit consideration for the role.

Published

6 hours ago

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March 13, 2026

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

Wednesday brought the news that Oscar Pareja is no longer the coach of Orlando City. Martin Perelman has the job on an interim basis, and while it’s always possible that he ends up with the fulltime job a la Roberto di Matteo after leading Chelsea to the 2011-2012 UEFA Champions League trophy, it’s more likely that the club brings in an outside hire sooner or later. As far as who that person should be, I’ve provided several names that I think should be considered in the search for the club’s fifth full-time head coach as an MLS team.

Filipe Luis

If you’re going to make a change, why not aim high with your next hire? The Brazilian was in charge of Flamengo from September 2024 to March 2 (more on that in a bit), and during his time in the big job, he guided the Brazilian side to the 2025 Copa Libertadores title, the Brazilian Serie A title, the Brazilian SuperCup trophy, the Campeonato Carioca (the Rio de Janeiro state championship), and the Copa do Brazil (the Brazilian U.S. Open Cup). They won four trophies in 2025 alone with him leading the team. A poor run of form to start the 2026 season left him suddenly and rather spectacularly without a job, as he was fired the day after the team finished off an 11-0 aggregate win in the semifinals of this year’s Campeonato Carioca. Regardless of recent circumstances, he’s rightfully regarded as a bright young coaching candidate, and his Flamengo team attracted global attention with a convincing 3-1 win over Chelsea at last summer’s FIFA Club World Cup before being knocked out 4-2 by Bayern Munich despite putting up a good fight.

His teams were built on pressing aggressively to win possession and quickly attacking once they did so. It would bring a more offensive style and would be exciting to watch in theory, but there would be questions about his ability to adapt to some of the league’s roster-building requirements and how the adjustment would be in moving from the most successful Brazilian team this century to a team in a smaller market with the restraints that come with it. On the other hand, I don’t have to tell you how deep Orlando City’s Brazilian connection is, so on the face of things, he’d certainly be a cultural fit. There’s also the fact that he played a number of seasons alongside Antoine Griezmann at Atletico Madrid. If the powers that be remain set on signing the Frenchman, why not bring in the man he won the 2017-2018 Europa League with?

Wilfried Nancy

Nancy spent two seasons in charge of CF Montreal, and another three leading the Columbus Crew. He guided the Crew as they lifted MLS Cup in 2023 and won Leagues Cup in 2024 and built a reputation for fielding attacking and free-flowing teams that saw players swapping positions and popping up in unexpected places in the attacking third. He parlayed that success into taking the Celtic job in December of 2025, but wasn’t able to replicate his MLS success as he lasted just 33 days before being fired.

While the firing alone isn’t cause for concern, as it was always going to be difficult to try to implement his dynamic and rather complicated style in the middle of the season, the circumstances in which he’d be taking the Orlando job are concerning. It would basically be the same as the Celtic job: taking over a struggling team in the middle of the season without the benefit of an off-season to fully coach your players on the way you want things to look. On the other hand, his familiarity with the league is certainly a plus, and when his preferred method of play works, it’s an absolute joy to watch. If you want someone with a proven track record of success in MLS, along with the trophies to boot, he’s your guy.

Eric Ramsay

Continuing the theme of coaches who recently became available, we have Ramsay, who is on the market after being fired by West Brom in late February. Before that though, he led Minnesota United to back-to-back Western Conference semifinal appearances in 2024 and 2025 and the semifinals of the 2025 U.S. Open Cup. Minnesota scored the sixth-most goals in the West in 2025 while conceding the second-fewest, and the team finished eight points back of the Supporters’ Shield-winning Philadelphia Union. Like Nancy, he wasn’t able to translate that success in Europe, as he only managed West Brom for nine games before getting his marching orders.

Also like Nancy, while that truncated spell in charge doesn’t concern me in and of itself, he’d be walking into a similar situation with OCSC, and that’s worrying. Would he have better luck implementing his ideas on the fly with Orlando? It’s difficult to say. That said, he does have a built-in familiarity with the league, which might help. Another point in his favor is his ability to have success with Minnesota, which like Orlando is a team from a less-heralded market. Only four teams had smaller payrolls than Minnesota in 2025, and the hope would be that he could provide similar results to an OCSC team that splashed some cash in the off-season but is still operating with less resources than the league’s heaviest hitters.

Jim Curtin

It’s been a minute since we last saw Jim Curtin in the dugout as a coach. He concluded a 10-year stint with the Philadelphia Union after the 2024 season, in which Philly failed to make the playoffs for the first time since 2017. While he went out on a low note, the Union were generally successful with him at the helm, winning the Supporters’ Shield in 2020 and finishing as MLS Cup runners-up in 2022 and U.S. Open Cup runners-up in 2014, 2015, and 2018. Of course, almost only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades, but there’s still something to be said for the way Curtin almost always managed to field competitive teams despite the Union’s steadfast commitment to operating with a budget that could perhaps best be described as shoestring. With that in mind, it could be very interesting to see what he could do when it comes to an Orlando team that would be operating on an increased budget from what he was accustomed to.

Of course, there are caveats here. Curtin was talking to the New England Revolution about their coaching vacancy in September of last year but walked away from the process citing family reasons, so is he even looking to get back into the game right now? There also aren’t strong recent results to lean on in the way there are with the three aforementioned names. That said, he knows the league and has demonstrated an ability to not just win, but win with limited resources.

When all is said and done, I’d probably rank the options in that order, although I’d be willing to swap Filipe Luis and Wilfried Nancy. On one hand, bringing in the Brazilian would show an exciting degree of ambition and belief, but it would be fair to have concerns about the potential whiplash from being at a club where you’re the biggest fish in the sea, to one where you’re more in the middle of the food chain. Nancy has won trophies and overseen scintillating soccer while doing it, but there’s a potential that he’d be set up for failure due to attempting to install a complicated playing philosophy on the fly. Ramsay also has a strong recent resume in the league and did so with a small payroll, but the same questions with Nancy apply to him. Curtin is more of an unknown due to the time that he’s spent away from the game, but he kept a miserly Union organization consistently competitive, and there’s something to be said for that.

There are likely plenty of candidates being considered by the club, and with it being so early in the process, it’s truly impossible to guess which way they’ll eventually decide to take things. There are certainly promising pieces on this roster, and if everyone stays healthy and gels, then who knows what this year will bring? Based on how things look at this exact moment though, whoever gets brought in is going to have a challenge ahead of them, and they’ll need to be up for the fight. Whether a hire is made sooner or if the front office takes its time, the only way out is through. Vamos Orlando.

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Lion Links: 3/13/26

Orlando Pride prepare for 2026 season opener, NWSL power rankings, Guro Reiten joins Gotham FC, and more.

Published

9 hours ago

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March 13, 2026

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Image courtesy of Orlando Pride / Jeremy Reper

Happy Friday, Mane Landers! I’ve spent most of my free time this week getting some needed spring cleaning done before the weekend gets here. Kicking up dust while also dealing with all the pollen when I go outside probably wasn’t the smartest idea, but it’s nice to be productive. Let’s get to the links!

Orlando Pride Prepare for Season Opener

The Orlando Pride are set to return to action on Sunday against the Seattle Reign in what should be an exciting season opener. It will be a rematch of last year’s quarterfinal between the two, which the Pride won 2-0 thanks to a strong defensive performance and goals from Haley McCutcheon and Luana. Head Coach Seb Hines spoke on how the team’s preparations for the season have gone, as well as the expectations to fight for titles after failing to win silverware last year.

NWSL Power Rankings Ahead of 2026 Season

The Orlando Pride placed fifth in All For XI‘s NWSL power rankings before the start of the season. It’s a pretty fair ranking for the Pride in my opinion, as they were inconsistent last year but still managed to reach the semifinals in the playoffs. Whether or not they can stake a claim as a title contender may hinge on how well Jacquie Ovalle does now that she’s had time to settle in this preseason.

The Kansas City Current top the rankings, with defending champion Gotham FC in second and the Washington Spirit third. As for the new teams on the block, the Boston Legacy are down in 15th while the Denver Summit are in 10th. It should be an interesting season and I can’t wait for it to start tonight when the Spirit and Portland Thorns square off at 8 p.m.

NWSL Transfer News Roundup

The NWSL season is here, but teams are still bringing in some firepower to their rosters before things get underway. Gotham added Norwegian forward Guro Reiten on loan from Chelsea and she will join the club as a free agent once the loan expires, with that deal lasting through 2029. Reiten has been a force in England, recording 59 goals and 44 assists across 207 appearances and helping Chelsea win six Women’s Super League titles.

The Chicago Stars also strengthened their attack, sending $300,000 in transfer funds and $200,000 in allocation money to the Reign in exchange for forward Jordyn Huitema. The 24-year-old joins on a contract through 2028 and gives the rebuilding Stars an aerial threat to help fill the void left by Ally Schlegel leaving for the North Carolina Courage.

European Title Races to Watch Out For

While it may not be crunch time just yet for clubs in contention, it’s a great time to check in on how title races are shaping up across Europe. While it may take some intriguing results in Germany, Italy, and Spain for things to get interesting, the United Kingdom is rife with drama to look forward to. Celtic and Rangers are usually the contenders in the Scottish Premiership, but it’s Hearts that has a five-point lead with plenty to go. In the English Premier League, the title race between Arsenal and Manchester City may end up being dwarfed by a relegation fight involving Tottenham, Nottingham Forest, and West Ham. Wrexham is right in the thick of a tight battle for promotion as well. Don’t sleep on the title race in France either, as Lens is hanging around just one point behind Paris Saint-Germain at the top of the Ligue 1 table.

Free Kicks

That’s all I have for you this time around. I hope you all have a fantastic Friday and rest of your weekend!

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Orlando City

Point Blank: Orlando City Cannot Afford Another Empty Night

A look at the recent history of MLS teams that started 0-3-0, and the uphill battle Orlando City will have to fight if it starts 0-4-0.

Published

1 day ago

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March 12, 2026

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Image of Eduard Atuesta and Marco Pasalic celebrating Atuesta's free kick goal in preseason against Colorado.
Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

The idea of this article is to make a point about points, because if Orlando City is not going to earn any, then at least we can write about it. The Lions are off to the worst start in club history after three games, with zero points earned after losses to the New York Red Bulls, Inter Miami, and New York City FC. The good news is that those three teams occupy places one, three and four in the Eastern Conference standings, so perhaps Orlando City was just dealt a difficult schedule to start the season, but those of us with eyes know the Lions simply have not played well for the majority of the three games.

The MLS regular-season schedule contains 34 games, so some quick math tells us that 91% of the season still remains to be played. The playoff structure for MLS is also incredibly forgiving, as 18 of the league’s 30 teams qualify for the postseason, and 16 of those 18 are guaranteed at least one home game. Plenty of teams over the years have gotten hot late to secure a playoff spot, or like Orlando City during the 2023 season, to go from a low playoff seed to a top one by winning nine of its final 12 games.

There is still plenty of season left, but while teams can and do get hot late, it is rare that they do after struggling mightily during their first three games. I took a look at the last three seasons, the only ones in which nine teams qualified for the playoffs in each conference, and the table below shows how many points each of the 54 playoff teams had earned after the first three games.

Points After Three Matches202320242025
0110
1110
2210
3204
4256
5120
6413
7473
8 (cannot happen, because math)000
9102
Avg. Points by Playoff Teams4.74.95.2

Only two of the 54 playoff teams went winless during their first three games (Charlotte in 2023 and NYCFC in 2024), and in each subsequent year the overall average points earned by playoff teams during their first three games increased. Orlando City is one of four teams in MLS that have yet to earn one point, though New England has only played two games due to one being postponed because winter storms delayed the delivery of the club’s new grass field.

The Lions will be fighting an uphill battle to become the third team to qualify for the playoffs after starting with three straight losses, but if they win this week’s game against CF Montréal, that would put them on the same trajectory as the aforementioned 2023 Charlotte and 2024 NYCFC teams, as both won the fourth games of their season on the way to turning their seasons around and eventually qualifying for the playoffs.

What that means, however, is that since the league moved to this new playoff format no team has started the season with four straight losses and made the playoffs. It is always cool to be the first to do something, but I think it would be much cooler if the Lions would go out and deliver a resounding — some might say impactful (think about it) — thrashing to the Canadian club.

If they were to defeat Montréal by at least two goals, they would jump over them in the standings, guaranteeing themselves to no longer be dead last in the entire league, which is where they currently sit. It will be weird to root against Dagur Dan Thórhallsson, and to a lesser extent Luca Petrasso, but I will be passionately rooting against players with “sso” in their last names on Saturday, unless Robin Jansson comes out of the tunnel like Willis Reed (timely reference) to help the Orlando City defense actually be fence-like and prevent some goals.

The early results from playoff teams from last three seasons will not have any bearing on whether Orlando City can turn its season around and make the playoffs for a league-leading seventh consecutive season, but it is instructive on how difficult it is to dig yourself out of a hole. Two teams were able to turn it around and make the playoffs, but eight teams (two in 2023, three in 2024, and three in 2025) started with three straight losses and finished the season out of the playoffs.

We will not know the fate of Orlando City’s playoff hopes until much later in the season, but we will know its fate against Montréal in just a few days. Hopefully at game’s end the Lions will have a one in the win column. Or, at least in the draw column, but preferably in the win column.

It is always the darkest before dawn, and with six straight losses dating back to last season, it is pretty much pitch black around Orlando City right now. I’d say that makes this weekend the perfect time for the Lions to execute a three-point turn.

Vamos Orlando!

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