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Ramiro Enrique or Duncan McGuire: A Look at Who Should Start Saturday

An evaluation of which striker should get the nod in the starting lineup for Orlando City’s match at Sporting Kansas City.

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3 weeks ago

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

No, it is not you, it really has been a month since Orlando City last played an MLS match. Yes, there were three Leagues Cup matches since then, and yes I did watch and cheer for Orlando City in all of them, but in the back, middle, and front of my mind I was thinking about the rest of the MLS season the entire time.

The Lions are finally back to serious MLS business though, and with nine games remaining, it is time for them to get hot and stay hot, and that means that the offense needs to return to the level where it was during July’s MLS matches.

Orlando City played five matches in July and scored a fan-pleasing 14 goals, winning four matches and drawing one. Critics might say the team played a relatively weak set of opponents during July, but I have no time for those critics and they can go take a hike somewhere far, far away. I recommend Mount Purgatory — my friend Dante has said it is beautiful this time of year.

As the famous phrase goes, you can only play the teams on your schedule, and Orlando City’s final nine games include six teams that have earned fewer points per game than the Lions and three that have earned higher points per game. If MLS was a singular table, like most soccer leagues in the world, Orlando City would be ranked 15th and would have remaining games against the teams ranked (in calendar order): 27th, 23rd, 26th, 13th, fifth, 18th, 21st, third, and 20th. This is about as soft as a run-in as the Lions could hope for, and if they can play up to the ability level we started to see at the end of June and throughout July, they have a good chance to, in the spirit of the recently completed Olympic Games, vault up a few spots in the Eastern Conference standings.

The team is finally healthy and without the interruption of any international tournaments, and Óscar Pareja now will need to make one of the hardest decisions he has had to make as Orlando City’s head coach: who to start at striker when the Lions play at Sporting Kansas City Saturday night. I believe he also has two other tough decisions to make: choosing a left back starter between Luca Petrasso, Kyle Smith, and Rafael Santos, and choosing a center back starter between David Brekalo and Rodrigo Schlegel. But with respect to all of those players, I think the decision between Enrique and McGuire will play a bigger role in whether Orlando City has a successful final stretch of the season.

Pareja, of course, does not have to choose one starter for all nine games, but he has said many times before that he likes to stick with a lineup that is producing results, which would seem to favor Enrique at the moment, since he scored in six of his last seven matches and Orlando City did not lose any of those games. Since the Lions last played though, McGuire has signed a new contract with the team, and as he was with the U.S. Olympic Team, Duncan left in early July and only returned the day before the second Leagues Cup match, so he is only just now re-acclimated to playing with his teammates.

Prior to departing for the Olympic Team, Duncan had started 17 of the 19 MLS matches, and he currently sits second on Orlando City in MLS goals, with seven. Ramiro has been scorching hot recently, but in the last match against Cruz Azul he failed to score and Orlando City did not advance in Leagues Cup, so now there needs to be a decision and not just a lather, rinse, repeat of the same attacking group that had started most of the recent matches.

We do not see the practices and what goes on day to day in the training facility, but we can compare the season-long results for Enrique and McGuire while playing as a striker and see what the numbers indicate:

On raw numbers alone, McGuire has more goals and goal contributions, but on a per-90-minute basis, the numbers favor Enrique. Duncan played most of his minutes in MLS play, whereas Ramiro is pretty evenly split among MLS and the two cup competitions. But on the whole, both players had similar stats in MLS as they did in the cup competitions.

Enrique played the majority of his cup minutes in Leagues Cup and McGuire in Concacaf Champions Cup, and both played easier competition early in their respective cup games and then went out against strong sides from Mexico in the end. Ramiro’s performance definitely has been better more recently, but Duncan has been good this season and as I wrote a few weeks ago, he was elite last season, so the long-term track record of success lies in his favor.

Decisions, decisions. Maybe we should look at how McGuire and Enrique have played in concert with the other five attacking players who are locked into their starting roles to see how they do when playing with Cesar Araujo, Wilder Cartagena, Ivan Angulo, Martin Ojeda, and Facundo Torres:

In looking at these lineups a few things stood out to me:

  • The two attacking lineups listed above actually rank first and second for most minutes played together among all attacking lineups, but the combined minutes total (585) only makes up approximately 20% of all minutes played across all competitions. It is surprising how few minutes most of the attacking groups have together on the field this season.
  • The top collective group, with McGuire, leads the team in goals, while the bottom collective group, with Enrique, is tied for third.
  • I know that the first thought that came to your mind when reading the prior item was “Well, Andrew, who is second?” Angulo – Araujo – Lodeiro – McGuire – Muriel – Ojeda – Torres, which was used for 177 minutes when Orlando City was using Cartagena as a center back, along with two traditional center backs, and had Angulo and Torres were deployed as wingbacks. That group has scored five goals, given up two, and has a goals scored per 90 minutes of 2.54.

While not all of the goals scored in that table were specifically scored by McGuire or Enrique, the target for Orlando City is goals, and the grouping with Duncan is scoring 1.96 goals per 90 minutes, a 44% increase over the grouping with Ramiro at 1.36 goals per 90 minutes. Soccer lineups are not like baseball, where it is perfectly clear on who is playing what position and when, but I am confident in the accuracy of my tracking. Assuming (yes, I know what assuming does), that the midfield will be Araujo and Cartagena as the holding midfielders and Angulo, Ojeda, and Torres in front of them, the data would point to Duncan being the choice to start as the striker when the season resumes on Saturday.

My wife, when I asked her what she thought, asked if there was a way for both Duncan and Ramiro to play together. “Por qué no los dos?”, as is often asked by our The Mane Land PawedCast hosts Michael Citro and David Rohe.

Orlando City has used attacking lineups with both McGuire and Enrique on the field at the same time for 143 minutes thus far this season, but all of those minutes happened in February or March, and they all were with Ramiro playing out on the wing with Duncan up top. Orlando City could go back to this lineup, but it likely would be at the expense of Angulo or it would be with two strikers, a formation that the Lions have rarely used outside of when there were injury issues in the past.

Using two strikers could remove the question about who plays left back, because they could go with three in the back, but I think that is a radical option and it is more likely that they use Duncan and Ramiro to combine for 90 minutes and the player who is performing better will get the lion’s share (see what I did there?) of the minutes.

I am on the edge of my seat interested to see who Pareja chooses for the next match. Does he ride the still-hot hand of Enrique and his six goals in seven matches and better per-90-minute stats, or does he go with the player who had started most of the matches this season before he stepped away to play for the U.S. Olympic Team? As a coach, you want these types of high-pressure decisions, as that means you have two competitive players who each have a case to start and the incentive to exceed expectations in order to play big minutes.

I would start Enrique on Saturday if it was me, but nobody is asking me. Literally, nobody. I asked my wife who she would start, she answered, and then moved on to another topic. I said don’t you want to know who I would start?

No.

Welp, that went well.

I predict Pareja will start Enrique on Saturday, but he will get about 60-70 minutes at most and then McGuire will come on, and then based on who performs better, it will go back and forth like this for the rest of the season.

Who would you start if it was up to you? Cast your vote in the poll below. I want to know, even if, like some, you are not that interested in who I think will start.

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Lion Links

Lion Links: 9/11/24

Orlando Pride playoff ticket information, USMNT draws New Zealand on awful late goal on the day it formally announces Mauricio Pochettino, and more.

Published

23 hours ago

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September 11, 2024

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Image courtesy of Orlando Pride / Mark Thor

Welcome to Wednesday, Mane Landers. We have a full weekend of fun ahead with all three teams in action. The Orlando Pride start things off on Friday, with Orlando City playing Saturday, and Orlando City B finishing things up on Sunday. Hopefully, we can have a nine-point weekend.

Of course, today is a day of remembrance of those who lost their lives both on that tragic day in 2001 and from the effects that followed. Take a moment today to let those you love know that you love them. Let’s get to the links.

Pride Power into Playoffs

We know the Orlando Pride have already made the 2024 NWSL Playoffs, but now you can let the club know if you are interested in potential playoff tickets before things get crazy. It’s nice knowing that we don’t have to wait until decision day to find out if the Pride are in. They are. Decisively. In the least surprising news ever, the Pride topped both the ESPN NWSL Power Rankings, and the Goal.com NWSL Power Rankings once again.

Pochettino Hiring Official

The hiring that everyone knew was coming was made official Tuesday as Mauricio Pochettino was named as the new head coach of the USMNT. Pochettino is the type of big name hire that U.S. fans have been waiting for following the double stint of Gregg Berhalter. Pochettino will be expected to get the best out of what some consider the greatest generation of American soccer players when he leads them to the 2026 World Cup in the United States, Canada, and Mexico.

USMNT Draws New Zealand

The same night that Pochettino was announced as the new USMNT head coach, his new team played New Zealand to an uninspiring 1-1 draw. Christian Pulisic put the Yanks ahead in the 69th minute, but the U.S. was unable to see the match out, allowing an 89th-minute equalizer on a completely awful goal that was misplayed by both Caleb Wiley and Mark McKenzie, with the latter providing the finish with a clearance attempt off of New Zealand’s Ben Waine, over Matt Turner, and into his own net. The match was only a friendly, but it illustrates the need for the new coach.

The Growth of the NWSL

The NWSL is in a good place. The league is growing both in the number of member clubs and in the attendance at matches across the league. There are many reasons for it, including the Olympics and big name stars like Marta and the recently retired Alex Morgan, but most importantly, the growing fanbase for the women’s game. ESPN spoke to general managers at every club in the league to get an idea of the challenges in the ever-changing landscape that is the NWSL. All the answers were anonymous, but it’s still very insightful information.

Free Kicks

  • In the ongoing series from the Orlando Pride, it’s now time for you to get to know Carrie Lawrence.
  • Let’s keep the clean sheets coming, Anna Moorhouse.
  • Declan Rice was a bit petty in Arsenal’s match against Brighton last weekend, nudging the ball away from his opponent on a free kick. The action earned him a second yellow and a sending off. Now, the board that reviews referee decisions has stated it was the correct call.

That will do it for today. Check back as we get you ready for this weekend’s matches.

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Lion Links

Lion Links: 9/10/24

Marta nominated for NWSL Goal of the Week, Orlando Pride happy to clinch playoff spot, Lions on international duty, and more.

Published

2 days ago

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September 10, 2024

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Image courtesy of Orlando Pride / Jeremy Reper

Happy Tuesday, everyone! It was another good weekend for Orlando’s soccer teams, as the Orlando Pride and Orlando City B combined to pick up all six points on offer. Hopefully that trend can continue and get even better once Orlando City resumes play this Saturday. We’ve got a lot to talk through this morning, so let’s get after it.

Marta Nominated for Goal of the Week

The Pride took down the Chicago Red Stars 1-0 on Sunday, with Marta singlehandedly winning the game for the Pride courtesy of an absolutely outstanding strike from outside the box. Unsurprisingly, that effort has earned her a nomination for NWSL Goal of the Week. While she’s facing some stiff competition, I think it’s safe to say that her goal is comfortably the best of the bunch. Go make sure everyone else knows it, and vote for her to win this week’s award!

Pride Speak On Clinched Playoff Spot

The Pride discussed the team’s mentality after clinching a playoff spot following this weekend’s results. Head Coach Seb Hines highlighted the heartbreak of narrowly missing the postseason in 2023 and how that was a motivator this season. That sentiment was echoed by both Marta and Haley McCutcheon, with both players speaking on making the postseason and the team’s bigger goals this year.

Lions on International Duty

David Brekalo is on international duty with Slovenia, and was part of his team’s victory in UEFA Nations League play on Monday. Brekalo started at right back and spent 87 minutes on the field, as Slovenia beat Kazakhstan 3-0 courtesy of a hat trick by star man Benjamin Sesko. The result leaves Slovenia atop League B Group 3 with four points after a 1-1 draw with Austria on Friday as well. Meanwhile, Facundo Torres and Uruguay face Venezuela at 6 p.m. tonight in CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying. Torres came on as a sub with 10 minutes to go in Uruguay’s 0-0 draw with Paraguay on Friday, so we’ll see if he’s involved two matches in a row. Best of luck, Facu!

USMNT Takes On New Zealand Tonight

The United States Men’s National Team will try to bounce back from a disappointing loss to Canada when it takes on New Zealand today at 7 p.m. in Cincinnati. The All Whites are ranked 94th in the world and have won four of their last five games. The USMNT midfield will need to have a much better showing than it did against the Canadians, as Johnny Cardoso, Yunus Musah, and Malik Tillman were collectively outgunned by the opposition. It’ll also be worth keeping an eye on the goalkeeper situation, as Patrick Schulte played well in the 2-1 loss, and has probably earned another start. There’s plenty to watch for, so make sure you tune in and see if the team can get back on the right track.

International Break Roundup

With the international break still in full swing, there were a number of big games yesterday that we need to catch up on. In the marquee match of the day, France rebounded from a 3-1 loss to Italy in UEFA Nations League play by comfortably dispatching Belgium 2-0, courtesy of goals from Randal Kolo-Muania and Ousmane Dembele. Italy made it two wins in two attempts by knocking off Israel 2-1, with a 90th minute goal from Mohammad Abu Fani not enough to get Israel its first point in the competition. In the Concacaf Nations League, Curacao posted an eye-popping score by beating St. Martin 4-0, only for Haiti to better that result by hammering Sint Maarten 6-0.

Free Kicks

  • In case you’ve been living under a rock, the Pride have been outstanding this year.

That does it for me this morning. Vamos Orlando!

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Lion Links

Lion Links: 9/9/24

Orlando Pride win in Chicago, McKinley Crone signs new contract, Orlando City B defeats Crown Legacy FC, and more.

Published

3 days ago

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September 9, 2024

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Image courtesy of Orlando Pride / Jeremy Reper

Hello, Mane Landers! I hope all is well with you down in Florida. Under Armour has been keeping me busy, and I got to cover some high school tennis and swimming this past week. The Orlando Pride and Orlando City B were in action this weekend and both teams got a win. We have plenty to cover today, so let’s get to the links.

Orlando Pride Shut Out Chicago Red Stars

On Sunday, the Orlando Pride got a 1-0 win on the road against the Chicago Red Stars to extend their unbeaten streak to 20 matches across all competitions. The run also ties the NWSL league record including playoff games, matching the Washington Spirit’s 20-match unbeaten run in 2021 and 2022. Marta scored the lone goal in the match to seal the win for Orlando. The Pride remain in first in the NWSL standings with 47 points, with the Washington Spirit in second with 41, and the Kansas City Current in third with 38. With a playoff spot already clinched, the Pride are aiming for the NWSL Shield as the top team in the league. The Pride will return home at Inter&Co Stadium on Friday to face the Kansas City Current.

Orlando Pride Sign McKinley Crone to New Contract

The Orlando Pride announced on Friday that the club reached an agreement with backup goalkeeper McKinley Crone on a new contract that runs through the 2026 NWSL season. Undrafted before joining Orlando as a non-roster invitee during the preseason in 2023, Crone progressed to being Orlando’s backup goalkeeper in 2024. Crone made her professional debut on July 20 in a 1-1 draw against the North Carolina Courage in the NWSL x Liga MX Femenil Summer Cup. The 25-year-old made five saves on six shots to help the Pride stay unbeaten across all competitions. With this latest move, the club has secured Anna Moorhouse, Crone, and Sofia Manner as their goalkeepers for next season.

Orlando City B Defeats Crown Legacy FC

Orlando City B got a 4-1 victory on the road against Crown Legacy FC on Sunday. Alex Freeman scored twice in the first half to give the Young Lions a 2-0 lead going into halftime. Crown Legacy scored in the second half, but OCB continued to do well on both sides of the ball to take all three points. OCB is in sixth place in the Eastern Conference with 40 points, and its next match will be back home on Sunday to take on New England Revolution II.

USMNT Falls to Canada in Friendly

On Saturday, the United States Men’s National Team lost 2-1 to Canada at Children’s Mercy Park in Kansas City in a friendly. It’s the USMNT’s first loss to Canada on home soil in 67 years, ending a 23-match unbeaten streak against Canada in the U.S. Jacob Shaffelburg and Jonathan David scored for Canada, while Luca de la Torre scored his first goal for the USMNT. The Yanks are on a three-match losing streak and will face New Zealand in Cincinnati on Tuesday at TQL Stadium.

Alex Morgan Plays Final Match

San Diego Wave forward Alex Morgan played in her final match as a professional soccer player on Sunday after a nearly 14-year career. Morgan had a penalty kick saved by Courage goalkeeper Casey Murphy and was subbed off early in the first half, as the Wave lost 4-1 at Snapdragon Stadium. Morgan announced last week that she will retire from professional soccer after this match, while also announcing that she is pregnant with her second child. She played six seasons with the Pride and spent the last three seasons in San Diego, winning the NWSL Golden Boot in 2022 and helping the Wave win the NWSL Shield in 2023.

Free Kicks

  • Pride defenders Kerry Abello and Kylie Strom made the NWSL Best XI for August.
  • Orlando Pride midfielder Viviana Villacorta was removed from the season-ending injury list.
  • The U.S. Soccer Federation is reportedly close to officially naming Mauricio Pochettino as the new head coach for the USMNT.
  • Tampa Bay Sun FC secured its first win in the USL Super League with a 3-2 win on the road against Lexington SC on Sunday.

That will do it for me today, Mane Landers. Enjoy your Monday and I’ll see you next time.

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