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Ramiro Enrique or Duncan McGuire: A Look at Who Should Start Saturday

An evaluation of which striker should get the nod in the starting lineup for Orlando City’s match at Sporting Kansas City.

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5 months ago

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

No, it is not you, it really has been a month since Orlando City last played an MLS match. Yes, there were three Leagues Cup matches since then, and yes I did watch and cheer for Orlando City in all of them, but in the back, middle, and front of my mind I was thinking about the rest of the MLS season the entire time.

The Lions are finally back to serious MLS business though, and with nine games remaining, it is time for them to get hot and stay hot, and that means that the offense needs to return to the level where it was during July’s MLS matches.

Orlando City played five matches in July and scored a fan-pleasing 14 goals, winning four matches and drawing one. Critics might say the team played a relatively weak set of opponents during July, but I have no time for those critics and they can go take a hike somewhere far, far away. I recommend Mount Purgatory — my friend Dante has said it is beautiful this time of year.

As the famous phrase goes, you can only play the teams on your schedule, and Orlando City’s final nine games include six teams that have earned fewer points per game than the Lions and three that have earned higher points per game. If MLS was a singular table, like most soccer leagues in the world, Orlando City would be ranked 15th and would have remaining games against the teams ranked (in calendar order): 27th, 23rd, 26th, 13th, fifth, 18th, 21st, third, and 20th. This is about as soft as a run-in as the Lions could hope for, and if they can play up to the ability level we started to see at the end of June and throughout July, they have a good chance to, in the spirit of the recently completed Olympic Games, vault up a few spots in the Eastern Conference standings.

The team is finally healthy and without the interruption of any international tournaments, and Óscar Pareja now will need to make one of the hardest decisions he has had to make as Orlando City’s head coach: who to start at striker when the Lions play at Sporting Kansas City Saturday night. I believe he also has two other tough decisions to make: choosing a left back starter between Luca Petrasso, Kyle Smith, and Rafael Santos, and choosing a center back starter between David Brekalo and Rodrigo Schlegel. But with respect to all of those players, I think the decision between Enrique and McGuire will play a bigger role in whether Orlando City has a successful final stretch of the season.

Pareja, of course, does not have to choose one starter for all nine games, but he has said many times before that he likes to stick with a lineup that is producing results, which would seem to favor Enrique at the moment, since he scored in six of his last seven matches and Orlando City did not lose any of those games. Since the Lions last played though, McGuire has signed a new contract with the team, and as he was with the U.S. Olympic Team, Duncan left in early July and only returned the day before the second Leagues Cup match, so he is only just now re-acclimated to playing with his teammates.

Prior to departing for the Olympic Team, Duncan had started 17 of the 19 MLS matches, and he currently sits second on Orlando City in MLS goals, with seven. Ramiro has been scorching hot recently, but in the last match against Cruz Azul he failed to score and Orlando City did not advance in Leagues Cup, so now there needs to be a decision and not just a lather, rinse, repeat of the same attacking group that had started most of the recent matches.

We do not see the practices and what goes on day to day in the training facility, but we can compare the season-long results for Enrique and McGuire while playing as a striker and see what the numbers indicate:

On raw numbers alone, McGuire has more goals and goal contributions, but on a per-90-minute basis, the numbers favor Enrique. Duncan played most of his minutes in MLS play, whereas Ramiro is pretty evenly split among MLS and the two cup competitions. But on the whole, both players had similar stats in MLS as they did in the cup competitions.

Enrique played the majority of his cup minutes in Leagues Cup and McGuire in Concacaf Champions Cup, and both played easier competition early in their respective cup games and then went out against strong sides from Mexico in the end. Ramiro’s performance definitely has been better more recently, but Duncan has been good this season and as I wrote a few weeks ago, he was elite last season, so the long-term track record of success lies in his favor.

Decisions, decisions. Maybe we should look at how McGuire and Enrique have played in concert with the other five attacking players who are locked into their starting roles to see how they do when playing with Cesar Araujo, Wilder Cartagena, Ivan Angulo, Martin Ojeda, and Facundo Torres:

In looking at these lineups a few things stood out to me:

  • The two attacking lineups listed above actually rank first and second for most minutes played together among all attacking lineups, but the combined minutes total (585) only makes up approximately 20% of all minutes played across all competitions. It is surprising how few minutes most of the attacking groups have together on the field this season.
  • The top collective group, with McGuire, leads the team in goals, while the bottom collective group, with Enrique, is tied for third.
  • I know that the first thought that came to your mind when reading the prior item was “Well, Andrew, who is second?” Angulo – Araujo – Lodeiro – McGuire – Muriel – Ojeda – Torres, which was used for 177 minutes when Orlando City was using Cartagena as a center back, along with two traditional center backs, and had Angulo and Torres were deployed as wingbacks. That group has scored five goals, given up two, and has a goals scored per 90 minutes of 2.54.

While not all of the goals scored in that table were specifically scored by McGuire or Enrique, the target for Orlando City is goals, and the grouping with Duncan is scoring 1.96 goals per 90 minutes, a 44% increase over the grouping with Ramiro at 1.36 goals per 90 minutes. Soccer lineups are not like baseball, where it is perfectly clear on who is playing what position and when, but I am confident in the accuracy of my tracking. Assuming (yes, I know what assuming does), that the midfield will be Araujo and Cartagena as the holding midfielders and Angulo, Ojeda, and Torres in front of them, the data would point to Duncan being the choice to start as the striker when the season resumes on Saturday.

My wife, when I asked her what she thought, asked if there was a way for both Duncan and Ramiro to play together. “Por qué no los dos?”, as is often asked by our The Mane Land PawedCast hosts Michael Citro and David Rohe.

Orlando City has used attacking lineups with both McGuire and Enrique on the field at the same time for 143 minutes thus far this season, but all of those minutes happened in February or March, and they all were with Ramiro playing out on the wing with Duncan up top. Orlando City could go back to this lineup, but it likely would be at the expense of Angulo or it would be with two strikers, a formation that the Lions have rarely used outside of when there were injury issues in the past.

Using two strikers could remove the question about who plays left back, because they could go with three in the back, but I think that is a radical option and it is more likely that they use Duncan and Ramiro to combine for 90 minutes and the player who is performing better will get the lion’s share (see what I did there?) of the minutes.

I am on the edge of my seat interested to see who Pareja chooses for the next match. Does he ride the still-hot hand of Enrique and his six goals in seven matches and better per-90-minute stats, or does he go with the player who had started most of the matches this season before he stepped away to play for the U.S. Olympic Team? As a coach, you want these types of high-pressure decisions, as that means you have two competitive players who each have a case to start and the incentive to exceed expectations in order to play big minutes.

I would start Enrique on Saturday if it was me, but nobody is asking me. Literally, nobody. I asked my wife who she would start, she answered, and then moved on to another topic. I said don’t you want to know who I would start?

No.

Welp, that went well.

I predict Pareja will start Enrique on Saturday, but he will get about 60-70 minutes at most and then McGuire will come on, and then based on who performs better, it will go back and forth like this for the rest of the season.

Who would you start if it was up to you? Cast your vote in the poll below. I want to know, even if, like some, you are not that interested in who I think will start.

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Opinion

Orlando City’s Lack of Off-Season Signings Starting to Become a Concern

The Lions’ roster hasn’t gotten any bigger in the last few weeks, so it’s understandable if fans are getting a bit antsy.

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31 minutes ago

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January 30, 2025

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

Three weeks ago I wrote that there was no reason to panic about Orlando City’s lack of off-season signings. It was early in January, and the club typically does a lot of its business throughout the first month of the year. Since then, the club signed Nicolas Rodriguez, but the Lions also traded Mason Stajduhar, and forward Jack Lynn retired. That is more subtraction than addition for a team looking to make it to the next level. Is it now time to panic?

The departure of Stajduhar hits Orlando City supporters in the feels given how long he was with the club, but one may assume the coaches have seen enough from Javier Otero to be confident in his ability to back up Pedro Gallese. The club still needs to bring in another keeper [Editor’s note: this story was written prior to the club signing Carlos Mercado this morning], but Stajduhar’s departure isn’t as big of a problem as it might first seem.

We don’t know how long Duncan McGuire will be unavailable once the season starts. Even if he’s back sooner than expected, Orlando City will still be lacking at the striker position. Ramiro Enrique has proven he can be a starter, but with Jack Lynn’s departure, there isn’t anyone behind him. While Luis Muriel is technically a striker, he tends to play further back in a facilitator role rather than as an actual No. 9. We haven’t seen any transfer moves for a new striker.

The Lions got a big influx of cash, thanks to the Facundo Torres deal. Replacing the goal production of Orlando City’s all-time leading goal scorer is a priority. So far, the club has brought in Rodriguez as an MLS U22 Initiative player. Despite the similarities between the two, Rodriguez is not a replacement for Torres. It is unrealistic to expect the young man to score double-digit goals his first year in MLS.

I’m not even worried about the attacking midfield. As I mentioned above, Muriel is best as a facilitator, Martin Ojeda is now wearing the No. 10 jersey, and Ivan Angulo can play on either side. It’s Torres’ goal contributions I’m worried about missing. Orlando City needs to replace that production sooner rather than later or another slow start seems certain.

I’m not going to address the Wilder Cartagena injury until we know more, but that is also potentially very bad news. That brings us to today. The team is already deep into its preseason trip to Mexico. This is the trip that in the past has been the time when the team truly bonds. Any players brought in at this point will obviously miss that valuable time.

Additionally, unless a signing is someone who has already played in MLS — which is incredibly rare for this front office — it is going to take them time to adapt to the league as well as the club and their new teammates. That brings us back to the real potential for another slow start to the season.

When you have roster turnover, the idea is to bring in players that are better than the players that departed. We know that the ownership is serious about winning. The 2022 Open Cup victory and the Orlando Pride’s two 2024 trophies are a testament to that. Now, it’s time to see that commitment with some substantial signings for City. In some ways, I feel the club has left it a little late, but I’ll take what I can get at this point.

I’m not saying it’s time to panic — though I won’t tell you not to do so — but I’m definitely getting a bit concerned. Let me know your thoughts in the comments below.

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Lion Links

Lion Links: 1/30/25

Orlando City reveals kickoff events, women’s transfer market grows, Tanner Tessmann named U.S. Young Male Player of the Year, and more.

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5 hours ago

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January 30, 2025

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Dan MacDonald, The Mane Land

We’re all another day closer to the return of Orlando soccer and I can’t wait. I’ve been whittling the days away with reading, writing, and taking far too many photos of my cat. This month has flown by for me, and I’m not complaining too much about it. Let’s dive right into today’s links from around the soccer world.

Orlando City Announces Kickoff Events

In preparation for Orlando City’s 2025 season, the club announced various events before the season opener at home against the Philadelphia Union on Feb. 22. The launch for the team’s new primary kit will take place on Feb. 12 at the Canvas Event Venue, with fans in attendance able to get the jersey and meet players. Other events throughout February include a chalk talk, musical bingo night, and plenty of ways to get merch ahead of the season. However, the Purple Pride 5K is not listed, which is a bit disappointing considering it would have been the 10th annual edition of the event.

Analyzing the Women’s Soccer Transfer Market

American defender Naomi Girma’s move from San Diego Wave FC to Chelsea was the first to break the $1 million threshold for transfer fees in women’s soccer and The Athletic ($) dove into which players could warrant similar spending from clubs in the future. Orlando Pride forward Barbra Banda was one such player noted. Banda did fantastic in her first season in the league last year, starred in the past two Olympics, and is still only 24 years old. Only time will tell if Europe can entice her before her contract in Orlando is up, but clubs would likely pay seven figures for her services. Americans Sophia Smith and Trinity Rodman could also surpass that $1 million mark, along with NWSL MVP Temwa Chawinga and Paris FC’s Clara Mateo.

Tanner Tessmann Named U.S. Young Male Player of the Year

U.S. Soccer announced that midfielder Tanner Tessmann was voted 2024 U.S. Soccer Young Male Player of the Year after a solid year for both club and country. The 23-year-old captained the U.S. at the Olympics last summer and started for the senior team in both Concacaf Nations League quarterfinal games against Jamaica. A regular starter for Venezia last year, Tessmann scored in the promotion playoffs to help the team earn a spot in Serie A. He was then transferred to Olympique Lyon in August and has taken part in the Europa League. Tessmann received 70% of the vote, winning the award over Gianluca Busio and Niko Tsakiris.

Champions League First Stage Wraps Up

The UEFA Champions League’s league phase is finally over, with eight clubs already through to the round of 16 and 16 set to take part in a knockout round. Manchester City escaped elimination after a 3-1 win over Club Brugge that resulted in both teams advancing to the knockout stage. A hat trick from Ousmane Dembele lifted Paris Saint-Germain to a 4-1 win against Stuttgart and secure 15th in the standings. Aston Villa, Lille, and Bayer Leverkusen all won to clinch a spot in the round of 16, all three benefiting from Atalanta coming up short in a 2-2 draw with Barcelona. AC Milan lost 2-1 to Dinamo Zagreb in a match that included Christian Pulisic scoring and Yunus Musah being sent off. Liverpool’s perfect run came to an end following a 3-2 loss to PSV Eindhoven, but it still topped the standings.

While I found the new league phase to be a bit underwhelming, the knockout stage should provide some intriguing matchups. The draw will take place on Friday, but we already know that Manchester City will play either Real Madrid or Bayern Munich and Juventus will face either AC Milan or PSV Eindhoven.

Free Kicks

  • MLS Season Pass will broadcast a featured game with enhanced production on Sunday nights. It’s a solid strategy and hopefully it can catch on and become something fans across the country look forward to each week.
  • The Chicago Fire are set for a nice payday if Jhon Duran completes his move from Aston Villa to Al-Nassr.
  • Giovanni Reyna earned some style points for this assist in Borussia Dortmund’s 3-1 win against Shakhtar Donetsk in the Champions League.

That’s all I have for you today. I hope you all have a wonderful Thursday and rest of your week!

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Lion Links

Lion Links: 1/29/25

Orlando City’s cup competitions, Orlando Pride’s new home kit leak, NWSL’s top 2025 matches, and more.

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1 day ago

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January 29, 2025

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

Welcome to Wednesday, Mane Landers. Orlando City’s preseason continues in Mexico, where the Lions played a closed door match against Canadian Premier League club Forge FC in Cancun on Tuesday. The club didn’t release any details on the match (more on that below), but the feature image is from the scrimmage. For now, let’s get to today’s links!

Orlando City Cup Competitions

Orlando City will compete in two of the four North American cup competitions in 2025. After a year away, the Lions return to the Lamar Hunt U.S. Open Cup along with 15 other MLS clubs and 10 MLS Next Pro participants. Orlando City will also take part in the Leagues Cup with 17 other MLS clubs and 18 Liga MX clubs. The Lions did not qualify for the Concacaf Champions Cup, nor will they compete in the Canadian Championship for obvious geographical reasons.

Lions Remain Scoreless in Preseason

While Orlando City didn’t release any details from Tuesday’s scrimmage, the folks at TrueNorthFoot reported that the Lions and Forge FC played to a 0-0 draw in Cancun Tuesday. The photos released by the club mostly featured younger players, and it’s not surprising that the offense isn’t sharp at this stage, but at least the defense is doing well through two matches. The next scrimmage will take place Feb. 5 against Atlanta United.

Pride Home Kit Leak?

From now on, all Orlando Pride kits will have a star above the crest (or more, pending future results). Like many of you, I’ve eagerly awaited what the next home kit will look like. We now have a glimpse, if a leak from Footy Headlines is accurate.

ohwww.footyheadlines.com/2025/01/mass…

— andré (@838carlisle.bsky.social) 2025-01-28T15:14:13.357Z

I really hope that picture doesn’t convey how purple the kit is supposed to be. I’m also not a big fan of the crest in the center thing, but they don’t let me make those decisions. If the new kit doesn’t float your boat, you can pick up some previous Pride kits from the club’s official shop at a nice discount.

The Orlando Pride are Must-Watch TV

As the defending NWSL Shield and NWSL Cup winners, it’s not a surprise that the Orlando Pride earned three spots on All for XI’s Top 10 Must-Watch NWSL Games in 2025 list, including the top spot. The matches against NJ/NY Gotham FC, the Kansas City Current, and of course, a rematch against the Washington Spirit will certainly draw big viewership numbers.

NWSL Expansion Update

An official announcement adding Denver to the cities with an NWSL club is expected in the near future. Prior to that commissioner Jessica Berman hinted that there are plans to further expand the league. If Denver joins as planned, the team’s ownership will pay a record $110 million franchise fee. You can expect those fees to continue to grow as the league does the same.

Free Kicks

  • Remember Amro Tarek? He made 20 appearances for Orlando City back in 2018. If you don’t remember him, that’s all right since Austin FC supporters will almost certainly remember him for this fun fact.
  • Some pretty big names have left the NWSL for other shores. While the story includes the Pride’s Mariana Larroquette, she’s not quite the biggest name on the list, and she’s also only on loan until July 1.
  • The U.S. Open Cup has tweaked the competition rules so that teams must use primary venues when possible. If they cannot, the team will be on the hook for any differences in the cost to broadcast the match.

That will do it for today. Have a great rest of the week. Vamos Orlando!

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