Orlando City

Ramiro Enrique or Duncan McGuire: A Look at Who Should Start Saturday

An evaluation of which striker should get the nod in the starting lineup for Orlando City’s match at Sporting Kansas City.

Published

7 months ago

August 22, 2024

S. Andrew DeSalvo

Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

No, it is not you, it really has been a month since Orlando City last played an MLS match. Yes, there were three Leagues Cup matches since then, and yes I did watch and cheer for Orlando City in all of them, but in the back, middle, and front of my mind I was thinking about the rest of the MLS season the entire time.

The Lions are finally back to serious MLS business though, and with nine games remaining, it is time for them to get hot and stay hot, and that means that the offense needs to return to the level where it was during July’s MLS matches.

Orlando City played five matches in July and scored a fan-pleasing 14 goals, winning four matches and drawing one. Critics might say the team played a relatively weak set of opponents during July, but I have no time for those critics and they can go take a hike somewhere far, far away. I recommend Mount Purgatory — my friend Dante has said it is beautiful this time of year.

As the famous phrase goes, you can only play the teams on your schedule, and Orlando City’s final nine games include six teams that have earned fewer points per game than the Lions and three that have earned higher points per game. If MLS was a singular table, like most soccer leagues in the world, Orlando City would be ranked 15th and would have remaining games against the teams ranked (in calendar order): 27th, 23rd, 26th, 13th, fifth, 18th, 21st, third, and 20th. This is about as soft as a run-in as the Lions could hope for, and if they can play up to the ability level we started to see at the end of June and throughout July, they have a good chance to, in the spirit of the recently completed Olympic Games, vault up a few spots in the Eastern Conference standings.

The team is finally healthy and without the interruption of any international tournaments, and Óscar Pareja now will need to make one of the hardest decisions he has had to make as Orlando City’s head coach: who to start at striker when the Lions play at Sporting Kansas City Saturday night. I believe he also has two other tough decisions to make: choosing a left back starter between Luca Petrasso, Kyle Smith, and Rafael Santos, and choosing a center back starter between David Brekalo and Rodrigo Schlegel. But with respect to all of those players, I think the decision between Enrique and McGuire will play a bigger role in whether Orlando City has a successful final stretch of the season.

Pareja, of course, does not have to choose one starter for all nine games, but he has said many times before that he likes to stick with a lineup that is producing results, which would seem to favor Enrique at the moment, since he scored in six of his last seven matches and Orlando City did not lose any of those games. Since the Lions last played though, McGuire has signed a new contract with the team, and as he was with the U.S. Olympic Team, Duncan left in early July and only returned the day before the second Leagues Cup match, so he is only just now re-acclimated to playing with his teammates.

Prior to departing for the Olympic Team, Duncan had started 17 of the 19 MLS matches, and he currently sits second on Orlando City in MLS goals, with seven. Ramiro has been scorching hot recently, but in the last match against Cruz Azul he failed to score and Orlando City did not advance in Leagues Cup, so now there needs to be a decision and not just a lather, rinse, repeat of the same attacking group that had started most of the recent matches.

We do not see the practices and what goes on day to day in the training facility, but we can compare the season-long results for Enrique and McGuire while playing as a striker and see what the numbers indicate:

On raw numbers alone, McGuire has more goals and goal contributions, but on a per-90-minute basis, the numbers favor Enrique. Duncan played most of his minutes in MLS play, whereas Ramiro is pretty evenly split among MLS and the two cup competitions. But on the whole, both players had similar stats in MLS as they did in the cup competitions.

Enrique played the majority of his cup minutes in Leagues Cup and McGuire in Concacaf Champions Cup, and both played easier competition early in their respective cup games and then went out against strong sides from Mexico in the end. Ramiro’s performance definitely has been better more recently, but Duncan has been good this season and as I wrote a few weeks ago, he was elite last season, so the long-term track record of success lies in his favor.

Decisions, decisions. Maybe we should look at how McGuire and Enrique have played in concert with the other five attacking players who are locked into their starting roles to see how they do when playing with Cesar Araujo, Wilder Cartagena, Ivan Angulo, Martin Ojeda, and Facundo Torres:

In looking at these lineups a few things stood out to me:

The two attacking lineups listed above actually rank first and second for most minutes played together among all attacking lineups, but the combined minutes total (585) only makes up approximately 20% of all minutes played across all competitions. It is surprising how few minutes most of the attacking groups have together on the field this season.
The top collective group, with McGuire, leads the team in goals, while the bottom collective group, with Enrique, is tied for third.
I know that the first thought that came to your mind when reading the prior item was “Well, Andrew, who is second?” Angulo – Araujo – Lodeiro – McGuire – Muriel – Ojeda – Torres, which was used for 177 minutes when Orlando City was using Cartagena as a center back, along with two traditional center backs, and had Angulo and Torres were deployed as wingbacks. That group has scored five goals, given up two, and has a goals scored per 90 minutes of 2.54.

While not all of the goals scored in that table were specifically scored by McGuire or Enrique, the target for Orlando City is goals, and the grouping with Duncan is scoring 1.96 goals per 90 minutes, a 44% increase over the grouping with Ramiro at 1.36 goals per 90 minutes. Soccer lineups are not like baseball, where it is perfectly clear on who is playing what position and when, but I am confident in the accuracy of my tracking. Assuming (yes, I know what assuming does), that the midfield will be Araujo and Cartagena as the holding midfielders and Angulo, Ojeda, and Torres in front of them, the data would point to Duncan being the choice to start as the striker when the season resumes on Saturday.

My wife, when I asked her what she thought, asked if there was a way for both Duncan and Ramiro to play together. “Por qué no los dos?”, as is often asked by our The Mane Land PawedCast hosts Michael Citro and David Rohe.

Orlando City has used attacking lineups with both McGuire and Enrique on the field at the same time for 143 minutes thus far this season, but all of those minutes happened in February or March, and they all were with Ramiro playing out on the wing with Duncan up top. Orlando City could go back to this lineup, but it likely would be at the expense of Angulo or it would be with two strikers, a formation that the Lions have rarely used outside of when there were injury issues in the past.

Using two strikers could remove the question about who plays left back, because they could go with three in the back, but I think that is a radical option and it is more likely that they use Duncan and Ramiro to combine for 90 minutes and the player who is performing better will get the lion’s share (see what I did there?) of the minutes.

I am on the edge of my seat interested to see who Pareja chooses for the next match. Does he ride the still-hot hand of Enrique and his six goals in seven matches and better per-90-minute stats, or does he go with the player who had started most of the matches this season before he stepped away to play for the U.S. Olympic Team? As a coach, you want these types of high-pressure decisions, as that means you have two competitive players who each have a case to start and the incentive to exceed expectations in order to play big minutes.

I would start Enrique on Saturday if it was me, but nobody is asking me. Literally, nobody. I asked my wife who she would start, she answered, and then moved on to another topic. I said don’t you want to know who I would start?

No.

Welp, that went well.

I predict Pareja will start Enrique on Saturday, but he will get about 60-70 minutes at most and then McGuire will come on, and then based on who performs better, it will go back and forth like this for the rest of the season.

Who would you start if it was up to you? Cast your vote in the poll below. I want to know, even if, like some, you are not that interested in who I think will start.

Orlando City

Orlando City’s Designated Players Delightfully Productive to Start the Season

A performance evaluation of Orlando City’s Designated Players through three games and how they compare to the rest of the league.

Published

6 hours ago

March 13, 2025

S. Andrew DeSalvo

Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

There will come a point someday in the future when Major League Soccer will stop using all its silly roster rules and allow teams to build their rosters however they would like to à la the rest of the world, but until then we must continue to live in the alphabet soup of acronyms like BAM, GAM, HAM, and TAM (two of those are actual MLS roster-building methods, one is a food often eaten with green eggs — back when eggs were affordable — and the other is onomatopoeia; I am confident you can identify the two acronyms that are MLS allocation money).

The other commonly used term, as it relates to roster-building methods in MLS, is DP, or Designated Player — a player who can be paid any amount as their salary while having a fixed amount that counts against the salary cap. The amount depends on the age of the DP. Players above the age of 24 count as $743,750 against the team’s salary budget; ages 21-23 count as $200,000; and players aged 20 or younger count as $150,000. You can read all you ever wanted to know about this subject and more by checking out the 2025 MLS Roster Rules and Regulations. Bring snacks. And a pillow.

Orlando City has three Designated Players on the 2025 roster: Luis Muriel, Martín Ojeda, and Marco Pašalić. Among the 30 teams in MLS, 11 teams, including Orlando City, have three Designated Players, 17 have two, and two teams only have one, for a total of 69 DPs on rosters as of Week 4 of the 2025 MLS season.

Only 61 of those 69 Designated Players have played thus far this season, however, as five are currently injured (CF Montréal’s Giacomo Vrioni, LA Galaxy’s Joseph Paintsil and Riqui Puig, New England’s Tomás Chancalay, and Portland’s Jonathan Rodríguez). In addition, one is on loan until June (NYCFC’s Talles Magno), one still does not have his paperwork in order to play in MLS (LAFC’s Cengiz Ünder), and one has been a healthy scratch in each game this season, as his team was actively looking to transfer him to another club (Toronto’s Lorenzo Insigne).

Most clubs use their Designated Player spots for attacking players, which makes sense considering attacking players tend to command the highest salaries, and with a DP only counting a set amount against the salary cap, teams can afford to pay high salaries to bring in attacking talent without the risk of jamming up their salary cap utilization. Only three of the 69 DPs in MLS this season are primarily defenders — Inter Miami’s Jordi Alba, Nashville SC’s Walker Zimmerman, and NYCFC’s Thiago Martins — and frankly, I am surprised it is even that many.

Orlando City has deployed 16 Designated Players since entering MLS, with all of those players in attacking roles while wearing purple. During some years, the performance by the club’s Designated Players was, shall we say, underwhelming, but through three games in 2025 (I know, I know, it is only three games), Orlando City can make a case that the performance of its DPs has been nearly the best in the league.

Let’s make that case. Right here. Right now. Bonus points if you remember this outstanding adidas commercial using Fatboy Slim’s “Right Here, Right Now.”

Ultimately, soccer matches come down to two measures: goals scored and goals allowed. Being that nearly every Designated Player plays in an attacking position, we can focus more on the goals scored as a measure of comparison. In order to score a goal, you need to create a shot, so I used Opta’s tracking on fbref.com to aggregate every Designated Player’s performance thus far in 2025 and normalize it to a per-90-minute basis.

Every blue circle in the table below is the average performance by a team’s Designated Players per 90 minutes for shot-creating actions and goals scored (example: the Houston Dynamo are the lonely circle closest to the bottom left corner; the Dynamo’s two Designated Players create, average, exactly one shot per 90 minutes and zero goals per 90 minutes, which is not ideal). The purple bullseye is Orlando City, which has DPs averaging 4.73 shot-creating actions per 90 minutes and scoring 0.57 goals per 90 minutes. The orange circle is the MLS average.

The ideal location on a chart like this would be for your team’s circle to be as far to the upper right as possible, with DPs creating lots of shots for their teammates and scoring lots of goals as well. If you had to choose one axis, you would of course prefer to be higher on the y-axis than the x-axis (your seventh grade Algebra teacher promised you that you would use the cartesian plane in real life someday), since goals scored are more important than shots created.

The Mane Land’s Ben Miller wrote a piece in our Monday newsletter, exclusively available to those who subscribe (which you can do by clicking on this hyperlink) about the goal-scoring performances of Orlando City’s three Designated Players thus far this season. Expanding on what Ben wrote, here are the per-90-minute stats for Orlando City’s three DPs thus far:

Player	Mins Played	SCA	Goals	Assists	Goal Contributions
Luis Muriel	151	3.58	0.60	0.60	1.20
Martín Ojeda	243	6.67	0.37	0.37	0.74
Marco Pašalić	234	3.46	0.77	0.38	1.15

The combined averages of these players’ performances are the aforementioned 4.73 shot-creating actions and 0.57 goals scored per 90 minutes. Orlando City’s DPs rank third in the league for shot-creating actions and fifth in goals scored. Seattle’s DPs (Jordan Morris and Albert Rusnák) are the reverse — fifth in shot-creating actions and third in goals scored — tying them with Orlando City at an average of fourth. Both teams trail expansion team San Diego FC, which is off to a strong start with two wins and a draw in its first three matches, and which has DPs (Anders Dreyer and Hirving “Chucky” Lozano) who rank fourth in shot-creating actions and second in goals scored, leading all clubs with an average of third across the two measures.

Looking at this a little differently, we can use standard deviations to compare just how much better or worse each club’s Designated Players compare to the league average. The axes look flipped from the last chart, but they are not. Shot-creating actions are still on the x-axis and goals on the y-axis. In this case, on the x-axis we are comparing a team’s average per 90 minutes in shot-creating actions to the league average, and we can see that Orlando City, again located in the purple bullseye, is 1.33 standard deviations better than league average.

The Lions are also 0.99 standard deviations better than league average in goals per 90 minutes, making them one of only six clubs who have Designated Players performing better than league average in both metrics (positive values are better than league average, negative values are worse than league average), and in a smaller group of three clubs that can claim to have had the best performance in terms of both creating shots and scoring goals.

The two circles located in the vicinity of Orlando City are again Seattle and San Diego, performing better in goals per 90 minutes but not as well in shot-creating actions. The outlier on the y-axis is D.C. United, as that club’s DPs are averaging 1.04 goals per 90 minutes, nearly three standard deviations (read: a lot) more than league average. The outlier on the x-axis is Nashville, which is surprising given that Zimmerman, a central defender, is one of the team’s DPs. Nashville is averaging nearly six shot-creating actions per DP per 90 minutes — almost 2.5 standard deviations more than league average.

If you recall your statistics classes, the general rule is that 95% of data points fall within two standard deviations above or below the average, so when any person or any team is more than two standard deviations better than the average either a) they are doing incredibly well, or b) the sample may not yet be big enough to feel confident in the standard deviations. In this case, it is probably both, as the teams have only played three games.

Even though the samples are small, it is still completely OK to feel great about the initial performances of Orlando City’s three Designated Players. The group has combined for four goals and three assists, and Muriel, Ojeda, and Pašalić have been a driving force behind a strong start to the season on the offensive end of the field.

Here’s to hoping that Orlando’s Designated Players will continue their torrid pace when the club returns back to the New York City metro area to play the Red Bulls on Saturday and their performance evokes a phrase from another Fatboy Slim song, and come Saturday, we find ourselves praising them like we should.

Vamos Orlando!

Orlando City

Orlando City at New York Red Bulls: Three Keys to Victory

What do the Lions need to do to bounce back on the road and secure a victory against the New York Red Bulls?

Published

8 hours ago

March 13, 2025

David Rohe

Dan MacDonald, The Mane Land

Orlando City heads north for the second week in a row, but this time to Red Bull…er…Sports Illustrated Stadium to take on the New York Red Bulls. The Lions are coming off a disappointing loss to New York City FC. A win gets Orlando City back to .500 before returning to Inter&Co Stadium next week.

On paper this looks like a low-scoring match, so it will probably be a barn burner. What does Orlando City need to do to earn all three points on the road against the New York Red Bulls?

Oh Captain, My Captain!

Robin Jansson is back, but the defense still gave up two goals against New York City FC. That’s eight goals shipped in three games for those who are counting. It’s not particularly surprising that Orlando City is 1-2-0 given the leaky defense. It doesn’t get any easier this Saturday with yet another road trip to play a New York team, albeit this time in New Jersey. I’m not sure if that’s better or worse, but we do know they will at least be playing on a normal-sized soccer pitch this week.

The Red Bulls aren’t exactly prolific scorers so far this season with only two goals so far — one from Emil Forsberg and one from Mohammed Sofo — but that doesn’t mean they can’t score this weekend. Now that the captain is back, the defense needs to get things sorted out. I’m hoping that the normal spacing of SI Stadium will allow the defense to refocus with Jansson back in charge.

Break on Through

New York may not score a ton of goals, but it gives up even fewer. The Red Bulls have only allowed one goal this season. It came in the match against FC Cincinnati off a long pass and off the head of Kevin Denkey. Even then, there were two defenders on him and it was a race between Denkey and keeper Carlos Coronel to see who would reach the ball first. I’m saying it’s not easy to score against them.

On the flip side, Orlando City has been able to score seven goals in its first three matches. Those goals have come from six different players. I think that there will be two players I’ll be watching in particular in the buildup. Jansson is fairly accurate at delivering long passes like the one on which Cincinnati scored. We also know that one of Eduard Atuesta’s strengths is connecting the defense to the offense. If the two can break the lines of the opposition, then the Lions have enough options up top to spread out the chances.

Use the Space

If Orlando City never plays in Yankee Stadium again it will be too soon. Luckily, the passing lanes and spacing will be back to normal standards this weekend. That should mean better passing from Orlando City, and the ability to run the offense how Oscar Pareja prefers.

As such, I want the Lions to take their time, be methodical, and strike when the time is right. That doesn’t mean they have to build out of the back all night. If the Red Bulls are creeping up, go route one. Use whatever space New York gives, but don’t let up. You can’t win if you don’t score, and one goal may determine this match.

That is what I will be looking for Saturday night. Let me know your thoughts in the comments below. Vamos Orlando!

Lion Links

Lion Links: 3/13/25

Getting to know Robin Jansson, Orlando Pride announce 2025 season roster, Orlando City’s watch party schedule, and more.

Published

12 hours ago

March 13, 2025

Marcus Mitchell

Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

How’s it going, Mane Landers? Soccer in the City Beautiful is back and in full swing, with another stacked weekend ahead of us. I’ve been spending most of the week working and getting some reading done before the rest of the month really gets busier for me. For those who like contemporary romance and are looking for a recommendation, First-Time Caller has been a fantastic read so far. But enough about what you should be reading, let’s get to the links!

Getting to Know Robin Jansson

Enjoy taking a stroll with Orlando City center back Robin Jansson, who detailed his role on the team and experience in Orlando. The 33-year-old has become an MLS veteran over the years and talked about how his game has developed since moving from Sweden to the U.S., notably how he’s able to play with the ball at his feet a bit more. As the team’s captain, Jansson provides leadership both on and off the pitch and discussed how he’s fit into the verbal and intense South American culture within the club. He also spoke on how he gives back to the community by visiting kids in the hospital to help them on their journeys.

Walk & talk with @RJANSSON24 🚶 pic.twitter.com/Ia0776Pa0k
— Orlando City SC (@OrlandoCitySC) March 12, 2025

Orlando Pride Announce Roster for 2025 Season

With the NWSL season only a few days away, the Orlando Pride announced their start-of-season roster. There aren’t too many changes from the team that won both the NWSL Shield and NWSL Championship last year, although Adriana’s transfer to Saudi Arabian club Al Qadsiah FC is notable. New additions acquired this off-season include Zambian forward Prisca Chilufya, World Cup winner Oihane Hernández, and rookie defender Zara Chavoshi. Luana, Simone Charley, and Amanda Allen are the players on the season-ending injury list heading into the 2025 season as well.

Orlando City Reveals 2025 Watch Party Schedule

The schedule for this year’s Orlando City watch parties was announced and fans will be able to watch seven away games at different local pubs. The first will be Saturday at Burton’s Thornton Park for Orlando’s road game against the New York Red Bulls. This should create a nice atmosphere for Orlando’s road rivalry games in May too, as the game against Inter Miami on May 18 will fittingly be watched at Rivals, while the watch party for the game against Atlanta United on May 28 will be at The Hideaway. Orlando’s Decision Day match with Toronto FC will be hosted at Kiwi’s Pub & Grill to close out the regular season. As part of the club’s partnership with the pubs, each one will have access to MLS Season Pass for all of the Lions’ games this year as well.

New NWSL Players to Watch in 2025

Pride fans are well aware that NWSL newcomers played a major role in the league last season, as Barbra Banda was a major reason behind the club’s historic year. This year’s new faces include many players who could impress in their first year in the NWSL, like aforementioned Pride defender Oihane Hernandez. The right back helped Spain win the 2023 Women’s World Cup and bronze at the 2024 Olympics and joined the Pride after two seasons with Real Madrid. She’s skilled on both sides of the ball and gives opponents another obstacle to overcome this season.

OCB Lands in MLS NEXT Pro’s Top 10

The first power rankings of the MLS NEXT Pro season are out and Orlando City B placed sixth. The Young Lions kicked off their season at home on Sunday with a 2-1 win over Columbus Crew 2. A late rally by Columbus nearly spoiled things, but OCB did well to hold onto its lead and secure all three points. Orlando’s next match will be Sunday at Osceola Heritage Park against Atlanta United 2, which lost 1-0 to New York Red Bulls II during the opening weekend.

Free Kicks

Chicago Stars forward Mallory Swanson won’t be with the team when it takes on the Pride this Friday due to personal reasons.
Although she’s focused on this NWSL season, Washington Spirit forward Trinity Rodman stated that it’s just a matter of when in regards to her making the move to Europe.
Seattle Sounders midfielder Paul Arriola was carted off due to a left knee injury during his team’s 4-1 loss to Cruz Azul. It’s tough news for Arriola, who tore his right ACL in 2020.
Charlotte FC bolstered its defense by adding left back Souleyman Doumbia on loan from Standard Liège for the 2025 season.
The Kansas City Current signed forward Flora Marta Lacho to a two-year contract, making her the first Angolan player in league history. She heads to the U.S. after helping TP Mazembe win the 2024 CAF Women’s Champions League last year.
The UEFA Champions League quarterfinals are set and each matchup looks to be a good one. Arsenal will take on Real Madrid, Bayern Munich will face Inter Milan, Borussia Dortmund will play Barcelona, and Aston Villa will square off against Paris Saint-Germain.
Bos Nation FC hired Amina Bulman as its chief revenue officer. Bulman led the Washington Commanders’ revamp as the NFL team’s chief brand and strategy officer, so a similar brand reset is hopefully on the horizon for the NWSL club.