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How Much Longer will Duncan McGuire be Dunc-ing on Orlando City’s Opponents?

A look into Duncan McGuire’s tenure with Orlando City and an evaluation of what the next few months may look like for him now that he has returned from the Olympics.

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Jeremy Reper

I love dunking. Oreos, Dunkaroos, my son in the pool, basketballs on a lowered rim — I love all types of dunking. You do too, I know you do. In fact, I think dunking is universally loved by everyone, except the NCAA during the 1960s, when they outlawed dunking in basketball because Lew Alcindor (now known as Kareem Abdul-Jabbar) was unstoppable and they were trying to find a way to make college basketball games more interesting.

Frédéric Weis probably also does not love dunking (France, Olympics, basketball, this is the time of all times to reference that dunk), but that may be it for those who were or are anti-dunk. I also love Dunkin’, and their slogan, “America runs on Dunkin’,” which Orlando City fans co-opted to Orlando runs on Duncan (McGuire), who is the subject of my focus this week. Duncan has returned from the Olympics but the question on all of our minds now is: for how long?

That we are even asking that question two years into McGuire’s professional career is a testament to his skill and will, because he is one of only four players from the entire 2023 MLS SuperDraft (88 selections) to have played more than 2,500 MLS minutes, and as the sixth overall pick, he was drafted four spots behind teammate Shak Mohammed, who has played only five MLS minutes in his career thus far. MLS draftees generally do not blossom so quickly that they are European targets after their first season, though Orlando City has had more success than most in the SuperDraft, as they drafted Cyle Larin, Chris Mueller and Daryl Dike, all of whom play(ed) in Europe after starting their careers in Orlando.

While Duncan was not Orlando City’s top pick in 2023 he was still a top six overall pick, so he did come in with some pedigree, but he was not a player who came up playing on youth national teams and with the expectation that he would walk right into minutes as a professional player. He did not play in either of his first two professional matches, and for the opening half of the 2023 season he generally sat behind Ercan Kara and then came in as a sub at some point in the final third of the game. But in those limited minutes he showed that his style of play was better suited to partnering with the rest of the Orlando City attack than that of Kara, leading to Kara’s return to Europe and McGuire taking over as the team’s primary striker.

Looking at his stats in 2023, it is easy to see why he took over that starting role, as using stats found on fbref.com, McGuire finished tied for 12th in goals (13), was third in goals per 90 minutes (0.84), and led MLS in shots-on-target percentage (72.7%), percentage of shots that became goals (39%), and goals – expected goals (+7.7). In general, I do not love bringing in expected goals as a stat, but in some cases it can be instructive, and in this case I think it is, because expected goals measure the average likelihood of a player scoring a goal from a specific location. That means McGuire scored 7.7 more goals than the average player would have been expected to score from where he took his shots in 2023.

Here are his 2023 MLS shots, courtesy of fotmob.com’s shot chart (the red circle is his final goal of 2023, because the site does not have a view without at least one shot highlighted):

Interestingly, that shot from near the midfield line has an expected goal value of 0.03, meaning the coders who set the values expect a goal about once in every 33 shots from there. I disagree. Vehemently.

Coming back to Duncan, let’s look at how he has been doing in 2024 as compared to 2023 in those same categories where he did so well, with one additional stat added in for comparison purposes (MLS rank among qualified players is shown in parentheses for the metrics; t means tied for):

Yes, the numbers on the right do not look quite as impressive as those on the left, as there are no top 10 rankings in any of these metrics so far this year. However, McGuire’s 2024 numbers are not bad, they are just not quite as good as 2023, except for the fact that when he shoots it on target he scores at exactly the same clip as he did in 2023, which is likely not coincidental and is a product of his shooting proficiency.

With about one quarter of the season left to play, he will have plenty of chances to increase his goal tally (unless he’s transferred out), and he also can make some improvements on the other percentage-based metrics as well. I do not think he will get to 13 goals again, but he has a shot to get to 10, which could make him the third or fourth (depending on if Facundo Torres also scores 10 goals) Orlando City player ever to have multiple 10+ goals in an MLS season. McGuire also now has 20 MLS goals in his first two seasons, and I expect he will get a few more before the end of the 2024 campaign, which I will come back to after a quick detour to look at those 20 total goals.

That 20 goals made for a nice round number, so I took a look at this decade (the 2020s) to see how many players in their age 23 or younger season had scored at least 20 MLS goals. The answer: 17. My dad, the world’s foremost pointer outer (go with it) of the prevalence of how often 17 shows up in the world is nodding his head and saying he knew it would be 17.

For those wondering, the leader this decade in goals scored by young players is FC Dallas forward Jesús Ferreira, who has scored 43 goals and will not turn 24 until this December. Ferreira has scored those 43 goals in 8,950 MLS minutes, McGuire’s 20 goals were scored in only 2,730 MLS minutes, the fewest of any of those 17 players. Duncan’s career MLS goals per 90 minutes is 0.66, which ranks him first among those 17 young players and also fourth in all of MLS (among players of any age) in this decade. The other three in the top four (Giorgos Giakoumakis, Chicho Arango, and Cucho Hernandez — presented in order of rank) were/are all Designated Players and all had/have salaries at least 20 times higher than McGuire’s, according to the MLS Salary Guide.

I mentioned that I would come back to the fact that I expect Duncan to score a few more goals this season, and that is because I think that he will finish this season with Orlando City. I have no inside information. I just think it makes more sense for him to finish this MLS season strongly and then depart in the MLS off-season, which is right smack in the middle of European seasons, when there will be teams who really need a striker due to injury or a relegation battle or because they are chasing promotion — like Barnsley was several years ago when the club made a loan deal for Daryl Dike to try to win promotion to the Premier League. It is no secret that McGuire wants to play in Europe, and he clearly has the ability to do so based on his stats and the eye test, but as it usually comes down to, it will be about timing and the purchase price.

Transfermarkt values Duncan at €5 million (approximately $5.46 million), third highest on Orlando City behind Facundo Torres (€14 million, $15.26 million) and Martín Ojeda (€6 million, $6.54 million), tied for 33rd overall among all MLS players, and tied for 12th among players 23 or younger. For a player who cost Orlando City nothing to acquire, any compensation would be nearly pure profit, so the team has an incentive to sell him as opposed to letting him play out his contract and leave for free.

McGuire had an opportunity to break out at the Olympics and drive up immediate interest, but the U.S. Olympic Team was not really set up in a way to maximize, or really even utilize at all, his talents, and he did not contribute any goals or assists. I do not think this Olympic performance will affect how talent evaluators and other teams view him, but had he scored some goals or contributed more than just his trademark max effort at all times, that could have been a catalyst for a move before the end of the MLS transfer window on Aug. 14.

Alas for Duncan, it did not go the way he had hoped, but as he always does, he left it all out on the field…and then left France the following day (Saturday), returning to Orlando in time to sub in during the Leagues Cup match on Sunday night. That’s impressive dedication, and it indicated to me that he is locked in on getting on the field and showing what he can do again.

He did return to a different Orlando City team though, one with a scorching-hot Ramiro Enrique playing in what was McGuire’s striker role and on a five, which became six, game scoring run. We may see the return of supersub Duncan for a while, reminiscent of his first few months in 2023, but I think that by the end of the season we will see McGuire back as the starting striker. If so, it will mean he is in good form, because Enrique is only going to be beaten out by a deserving player.

I think this is a best-case scenario for Orlando City — a highly motivated McGuire who wants his spot back and who wants to show European evaluators that they should bring him across the Atlantic, and a highly motivated Enrique, who wants to keep his starting spot and who will want to be the clear choice to be the starter when Duncan eventually does leave.

Orlando City fans are in for 90 minutes of strong striker play in every match now that McGuire is back and Enrique has come on like the proverbial freight train, and I think we have a good chance to see another end-of-season run coming for the Lions down the stretch.

As the Pride’s Kerry Abello always says, vamos!

Opinion

Martin Ojeda Can Further Build on an Improved 2024

Martin Ojeda has picked things up after a slow start to the season, but he has room to play even better.

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Dan MacDonald, The Mane Land

Argentinian attacking midfielder Martin Ojeda finished his maiden season in an Orlando City uniform with six goals and 10 assists. While 16 goal contributions in his first year in a new league with unfamiliar surroundings isn’t a terrible return, there was a widespread sense that he didn’t perform at the level the Lions needed from a Designated Player. He improved the deeper Orlando got into the year though, and coming into the 2024 season, a lot of the projections involving OCSC being one of the best teams in the league were predicated on him taking the next step and becoming a true force in Major League Soccer. So, has that happened?

The broad numbers say that it hasn’t. Through 27 appearances and 1,582 minutes, Ojeda has three goals and eight assists, compared to six goals and 10 assists in 34 appearances and 1,751 minutes in 2023. The Argentine still has time to eclipse his totals from last year, but barring a positively explosive run of form, it’ll take him more minutes to do so. For my money, it isn’t quite that simple though.

For one thing, Ojeda has shown improvement in two key areas: passing accuracy and key passes. His accuracy is up to 84% in 2024, while it was 79% last season. He’s also already eclipsed his total for key passes in 2023, currently sitting on 45, compared to the 42 he finished with in his debut season in purple. That suggests that not only is he passing the ball better, but he’s also putting it in more dangerous areas than previously. Some of that is to be expected, considering his shift into the center of the field to play the no. 10, but he’s still had to adapt to the new position, and he’s looked more and more comfortable as the year has continued.

Let’s talk about that positional change a little. The first few months of the season were ugly for just about everyone wearing an Orlando City jersey. Guys were hurt, off on international duty, or suspended, and many of the ones who could play were forced to do so in positions that weren’t natural for them. At various points throughout the early months of 2024, he found himself playing in the hole behind two strikers, as a deep-lying playmaker, deputizing at striker himself, or dropped from the starting XI entirely.

It was hard to argue with him coming off the bench, as he had just three assists in the 16 games prior to the LAFC match on June 15. He got his first league goal of the year in that match though, and in the 11 games since then, he’s recorded two goals and four assists. While not a staggering return, he’s trending in the right direction. Outside of the numbers, he looks capable of being able to produce at a higher level.

Saturday’s match against Nashville SC provided two specific instances which I found encouraging. The first was his assist on Ivan Angulo’s opening goal, specifically the way in which Ojeda created the goal.

Everything about that is fantastic. The anticipation and work rate to get into a position to intercept the wayward pass, the vision to see Angulo’s position, the quick decision to play the one-touch pass, and the execution to deliver that pass squarely on the money. One of the knocks on Ojeda in an OCSC shirt has been his decision making and execution in the final third, as at times he’s settled for long potshots or held onto the ball too long before trying to find a teammate. None of that was on display here, and the speed of thought, coupled with the execution, meant that Orlando grabbed an early lead.

Let’s then talk about the turn he executed at midfield during the buildup to Facundo Torres’ first goal. Ojeda receives the ball, takes a touch, neatly slips it through a defender’s legs, and then immediately drives hard at the Nashville defense before releasing the ball and finding Torres in space. It’s one moment of skill, but it’s something that happens when you have a guy who’s playing with confidence, and the fact that he then made the right pass at the right time makes it even better.

Those are the moments that we’ve started to see more of from the Designated Player as the year has gone on, and we’ll need to continue seeing more of if Orlando City wants to keep pushing up the table.

Ojeda has a chance to improve on his debut season and really make an impact for the Lions down the stretch. If he keeps playing with confidence, making the correct decisions, and executing in the way that he’s shown this summer, it should bode well for OCSC. Vamos Orlando!

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Opinion

Potential Orlando City Lineup Changes for Nashville SC

What player changes can Orlando City make to get back on the winning track?

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC

Once Oscar Pareja finds a lineup he likes, he tends to stick with it. This is not necessarily a bad thing when the team is playing well and earning points. It can be if he is slow to make changes when things start to not be so good and the team is dropping points, like in the match against Sporting Kansas City.

I think it’s time to shake some things up. Here are my recommendations.

Left Back Luca

Luca Petrasso has been killing it with Orlando City B as of late. He’s also looked pretty good in the limited time with the senior squad. This is a player with a first-team contract who went on loan to Triestina for six months, has gotten quality minutes with OCB, and should now be given a chance to start at left back. 

It might sound a little crazy, but neither Rafael Santos nor Kyle Smith has played very well recently when they have gotten the start. A change is needed, and giving Petrasso a start is a good way to reward his play both with OCB and with the few minutes he’s managed with the first team. Honestly, I’m not sure it would be much worse than what Santos and Smith have provided in recent games, so Pareja might as well give it a go.

Midfield Move

Let me first say that I’m talking about the attacking midfield. Defensive midfielders Wilder Cartagena and Cesar Araujo are a bright spot on a team that has struggled recently. I’m talking about shaking things up a little higher up the pitch. 

Given that Martin Ojeda, Facundo Torres, and Ivan Angulo have all been starting recently, that only leaves Nico Lodeiro to bring on for one of those three. I don’t see Pareja sitting Torres, so let’s take that off the table. If he were to sit Angulo, then that would likely mean moving Torres to the left side. We all know that Torres prefers the right side so he can cut across the defense and put the ball on goal with his favored left foot. You also lose Angulo’s speed, and I don’t expect Angulo to have another match like he did against Kansas City.

That leaves Ojeda out. I’m not saying he’s been worse than the other two, but from a tactical perspective it makes the most sense for Lodeiro to replace Ojeda. That allows the other two to stay in their preferred spots, and for Ojeda to come on around the 60th minute with fresh legs. Lodeiro has enough in the tank to do it, and some sort of change is needed to get the attack going again.

Orlando Runs on Duncan

Ramiro Enrique went on a goal-scoring tear up until two matches ago. Because of Enrique’s form, even after Duncan McGuire signed his new contract, the Argentine got the next two starts. The first of those against Cruz Azul on Aug. 9 was no big deal. Nobody scored in that one. Then there was a two-week break before Saturday’s 24 match against Sporting Kansas City. Still no goal for the young striker, and even worse, he started putting the ball out or right at the keeping in both of those matches. 

Now, it’s time to put Big Dunc back in the starting lineup. He has his new contract, and giving him the start with something to prove after subbing in these last few matches could spark the Orlando City attack once more. Additionally, there is a reason he got the new deal. He knows how to score goals, and sometimes you just need to get out there to make it happen. The added benefit is that Enrique will be motivated to win back that starting spot when he’s coming off the bench.


That’s what I’d like to see this Saturday night from Orlando City. Let me know your thoughts in the comments below.

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Opinion

Predicting Orlando City’s Remaining August Matches

Let’s peek into the crystal ball and predict Orlando City’s last two matches in August.

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

With a bit off time off until Orlando City’s next match, there’s no time like the present to peek ahead in the calendar and make some guesses as to how the rest of August will treat the Lions. OCSC will only play two more matches before the month ends, as the team got a couple weeks off after being eliminated from Leagues Cup.

Saturday, Aug. 24 at Sporting Kansas City

The first game following the break comes on the road against Sporting Kansas City. SKC’s last game was on Friday, Aug. 9, the same as Orlando, and the club was soundly beaten 4-0 on the road by the Columbus Crew in the Leagues Cup Round of 32. In the league, Sporting has compiled a record of 6-14-6, and currently sits in 12th place in the West on 24 points. Scoring goals hasn’t been an issue, as 41 in 26 games is a perfectly respectable rate, but the bigger issue has been keeping the ball out of their own net. Sporting has given up a whopping 52 tallies on the season, and only a woeful San Jose Earthquakes side — that’s in real danger of conceding a historic number of times — has given up more. Willy Agada has quietly put together a nice season with nine goals and two assists in just 1,266 minutes, but I like the Lions’ chances here.

Orlando City is on an eight-game unbeaten streak in all competitions, and only a sudden bout of lackluster finishing prevented the good guys from getting a win against Cruz Azul in the game that eliminated OCSC from Leagues Cup. Plus, Kansas City also has a U.S. Open Cup semifinal on Tuesday, Aug. 27 to think about. The playoffs aren’t quite out of reach yet, but the USOC represents SKC’s best chance for a trophy this year, and it wouldn’t surprise me if the club prioritizes it. I think the finishing touch comes back, the defense continues the improved play its shown during this run, and Orlando gets it done on the road.

Prediction: Orlando City 2-1 Sporting Kansas City.

Saturday, Aug. 31 vs. Nashville SC

For the final match of the month, Orlando City has a home game against Nashville SC, one of the teams it took down during the current unbeaten run. Nashville was last in action back on Aug. 6, when a penalty shootout loss against the New England Revolution bounced the team from Leagues Cup in the group stage. Pending next week’s match against Austin FC, Nashville may come into next week’s clash in Orlando not having won a game since a 1-0 result at home against NYCFC all the way back on June 22. The Tennessee side has a record of 6-11-8 and is 12th in the East on 26 points. The defense has been fairly solid, with 39 goals given up through 25 games. The attack has been a different story though, with the 26 goals scored just barely tipping the team over a goal-a-game average. Sam Surridge has scored almost a quarter of the team’s goals with eight in 19 games, so if the Lions can bottle him up they should have a decent chance of keeping the visitors off the board.

Once again, I think this is a game that Orlando City should win. Both teams will have had a game to get back into a competitive rhythm, but the Lions have looked much better than Nashville in recent outings, and picked up a pretty comfortable win on the road the last time the two teams squared off. Orlando’s defense has picked up its play after an uncharacteristically shaky start to the year, and Nashville has struggled to score goals all season. On paper, the schedule is set up for OCSC to have a strong finish to the season, and I expect the good guys to take care of business here.

Prediction: Orlando City 3-0 Nashville SC.


Those are my guesses for Orlando’s two remaining matches in August. Do you think I got it right, or do you see these matches going a different way? Be sure to have your say down in the comments. Vamos Orlando!

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