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How Much Longer will Duncan McGuire be Dunc-ing on Orlando City’s Opponents?

A look into Duncan McGuire’s tenure with Orlando City and an evaluation of what the next few months may look like for him now that he has returned from the Olympics.

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Jeremy Reper

I love dunking. Oreos, Dunkaroos, my son in the pool, basketballs on a lowered rim — I love all types of dunking. You do too, I know you do. In fact, I think dunking is universally loved by everyone, except the NCAA during the 1960s, when they outlawed dunking in basketball because Lew Alcindor (now known as Kareem Abdul-Jabbar) was unstoppable and they were trying to find a way to make college basketball games more interesting.

Frédéric Weis probably also does not love dunking (France, Olympics, basketball, this is the time of all times to reference that dunk), but that may be it for those who were or are anti-dunk. I also love Dunkin’, and their slogan, “America runs on Dunkin’,” which Orlando City fans co-opted to Orlando runs on Duncan (McGuire), who is the subject of my focus this week. Duncan has returned from the Olympics but the question on all of our minds now is: for how long?

That we are even asking that question two years into McGuire’s professional career is a testament to his skill and will, because he is one of only four players from the entire 2023 MLS SuperDraft (88 selections) to have played more than 2,500 MLS minutes, and as the sixth overall pick, he was drafted four spots behind teammate Shak Mohammed, who has played only five MLS minutes in his career thus far. MLS draftees generally do not blossom so quickly that they are European targets after their first season, though Orlando City has had more success than most in the SuperDraft, as they drafted Cyle Larin, Chris Mueller and Daryl Dike, all of whom play(ed) in Europe after starting their careers in Orlando.

While Duncan was not Orlando City’s top pick in 2023 he was still a top six overall pick, so he did come in with some pedigree, but he was not a player who came up playing on youth national teams and with the expectation that he would walk right into minutes as a professional player. He did not play in either of his first two professional matches, and for the opening half of the 2023 season he generally sat behind Ercan Kara and then came in as a sub at some point in the final third of the game. But in those limited minutes he showed that his style of play was better suited to partnering with the rest of the Orlando City attack than that of Kara, leading to Kara’s return to Europe and McGuire taking over as the team’s primary striker.

Looking at his stats in 2023, it is easy to see why he took over that starting role, as using stats found on fbref.com, McGuire finished tied for 12th in goals (13), was third in goals per 90 minutes (0.84), and led MLS in shots-on-target percentage (72.7%), percentage of shots that became goals (39%), and goals – expected goals (+7.7). In general, I do not love bringing in expected goals as a stat, but in some cases it can be instructive, and in this case I think it is, because expected goals measure the average likelihood of a player scoring a goal from a specific location. That means McGuire scored 7.7 more goals than the average player would have been expected to score from where he took his shots in 2023.

Here are his 2023 MLS shots, courtesy of fotmob.com’s shot chart (the red circle is his final goal of 2023, because the site does not have a view without at least one shot highlighted):

Interestingly, that shot from near the midfield line has an expected goal value of 0.03, meaning the coders who set the values expect a goal about once in every 33 shots from there. I disagree. Vehemently.

Coming back to Duncan, let’s look at how he has been doing in 2024 as compared to 2023 in those same categories where he did so well, with one additional stat added in for comparison purposes (MLS rank among qualified players is shown in parentheses for the metrics; t means tied for):

Yes, the numbers on the right do not look quite as impressive as those on the left, as there are no top 10 rankings in any of these metrics so far this year. However, McGuire’s 2024 numbers are not bad, they are just not quite as good as 2023, except for the fact that when he shoots it on target he scores at exactly the same clip as he did in 2023, which is likely not coincidental and is a product of his shooting proficiency.

With about one quarter of the season left to play, he will have plenty of chances to increase his goal tally (unless he’s transferred out), and he also can make some improvements on the other percentage-based metrics as well. I do not think he will get to 13 goals again, but he has a shot to get to 10, which could make him the third or fourth (depending on if Facundo Torres also scores 10 goals) Orlando City player ever to have multiple 10+ goals in an MLS season. McGuire also now has 20 MLS goals in his first two seasons, and I expect he will get a few more before the end of the 2024 campaign, which I will come back to after a quick detour to look at those 20 total goals.

That 20 goals made for a nice round number, so I took a look at this decade (the 2020s) to see how many players in their age 23 or younger season had scored at least 20 MLS goals. The answer: 17. My dad, the world’s foremost pointer outer (go with it) of the prevalence of how often 17 shows up in the world is nodding his head and saying he knew it would be 17.

For those wondering, the leader this decade in goals scored by young players is FC Dallas forward Jesús Ferreira, who has scored 43 goals and will not turn 24 until this December. Ferreira has scored those 43 goals in 8,950 MLS minutes, McGuire’s 20 goals were scored in only 2,730 MLS minutes, the fewest of any of those 17 players. Duncan’s career MLS goals per 90 minutes is 0.66, which ranks him first among those 17 young players and also fourth in all of MLS (among players of any age) in this decade. The other three in the top four (Giorgos Giakoumakis, Chicho Arango, and Cucho Hernandez — presented in order of rank) were/are all Designated Players and all had/have salaries at least 20 times higher than McGuire’s, according to the MLS Salary Guide.

I mentioned that I would come back to the fact that I expect Duncan to score a few more goals this season, and that is because I think that he will finish this season with Orlando City. I have no inside information. I just think it makes more sense for him to finish this MLS season strongly and then depart in the MLS off-season, which is right smack in the middle of European seasons, when there will be teams who really need a striker due to injury or a relegation battle or because they are chasing promotion — like Barnsley was several years ago when the club made a loan deal for Daryl Dike to try to win promotion to the Premier League. It is no secret that McGuire wants to play in Europe, and he clearly has the ability to do so based on his stats and the eye test, but as it usually comes down to, it will be about timing and the purchase price.

Transfermarkt values Duncan at €5 million (approximately $5.46 million), third highest on Orlando City behind Facundo Torres (€14 million, $15.26 million) and Martín Ojeda (€6 million, $6.54 million), tied for 33rd overall among all MLS players, and tied for 12th among players 23 or younger. For a player who cost Orlando City nothing to acquire, any compensation would be nearly pure profit, so the team has an incentive to sell him as opposed to letting him play out his contract and leave for free.

McGuire had an opportunity to break out at the Olympics and drive up immediate interest, but the U.S. Olympic Team was not really set up in a way to maximize, or really even utilize at all, his talents, and he did not contribute any goals or assists. I do not think this Olympic performance will affect how talent evaluators and other teams view him, but had he scored some goals or contributed more than just his trademark max effort at all times, that could have been a catalyst for a move before the end of the MLS transfer window on Aug. 14.

Alas for Duncan, it did not go the way he had hoped, but as he always does, he left it all out on the field…and then left France the following day (Saturday), returning to Orlando in time to sub in during the Leagues Cup match on Sunday night. That’s impressive dedication, and it indicated to me that he is locked in on getting on the field and showing what he can do again.

He did return to a different Orlando City team though, one with a scorching-hot Ramiro Enrique playing in what was McGuire’s striker role and on a five, which became six, game scoring run. We may see the return of supersub Duncan for a while, reminiscent of his first few months in 2023, but I think that by the end of the season we will see McGuire back as the starting striker. If so, it will mean he is in good form, because Enrique is only going to be beaten out by a deserving player.

I think this is a best-case scenario for Orlando City — a highly motivated McGuire who wants his spot back and who wants to show European evaluators that they should bring him across the Atlantic, and a highly motivated Enrique, who wants to keep his starting spot and who will want to be the clear choice to be the starter when Duncan eventually does leave.

Orlando City fans are in for 90 minutes of strong striker play in every match now that McGuire is back and Enrique has come on like the proverbial freight train, and I think we have a good chance to see another end-of-season run coming for the Lions down the stretch.

As the Pride’s Kerry Abello always says, vamos!

Opinion

Mirage vs. Reality: On the Sustainability of the San Jose Performance

Was the 4-0 win in California simply a flash in the pan, or should we expect more of the same from OCSC?

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Image of Orlando City players celebrating a goal against San Jose.
Image courtesy of Orlando City SC

While we all no doubt missed having Orlando City games to watch during Major League Soccer’s sabbatical for the World Cup, its also probably fair to say that Wednesday’s return to action against the San Jose Earthquakes was tinged with a good deal of trepidation. After all, the Lions had been hammered 6-2 on the road by FC Cincinnati in their final match before the layoff, comfortably had the worst defense in the league, had yet to keep a clean sheet, and had given up a whopping 31 of their 44 goals conceded on the road.

It didn’t help matters that San Jose was in the top five of the Supporters’ Shield standings, was the second-best team in the Western Conference (level on points for first but edged out on goal differential), and had scored 33 goals in 15 games while giving up just 15. It’s true that the Quakes weren’t in great form before the break, winning just one of their last five, but there was still plenty of reasons to worry that Orlando would pick up where it had left off in Ohio back on May 23.

Instead, the Lions not only hammered San Jose 4-0, but arguably should have beaten the Earthquakes by an even more lopsided scoreline. The team played a fluid, position-less brand of soccer that gave the home team absolute fits, and kept a first league clean sheet of the year to boot. It was an extremely unexpected, but exceedingly welcome, performance.

The big question now, is whether it can be replicated.

Well, maybe not directly replicated, as 4-0 wins tend to be relatively uncommon occurrences for even the very best of teams. Rather, can the things that made Orlando successful on Wednesday be built upon and repeated, or was the team’s performance a flash in the pan that we shouldn’t expect to see again?

First, let’s talk about the performance itself.

The highlight was how the team looked going forward. Every player on the field not named Maxime Crepeau, Adrian Marin, Robin Jansson, or David Brekalo was constantly drifting anywhere and everywhere in the attacking half, taking up unexpected positions and rarely remaining in the position designated for them by the formation. Ivan Angulo functioned as a no.10 despite nominally playing right midfield, Justin Ellis and Antoine Griezmann could be found anywhere from the opposition’s 18-yard box to the midfield line or deeper, and the same could be said for Braian Ojeda and Eduard Atuesta. San Jose found the positional interchanging extremely difficult to deal with, especially during the first half hour of the game, but did settle in a little better after halftime.

Speaking of Ellis and Griezmann, they were terrors for their entire time on the pitch. As previously mentioned, both of them were dropping deep to receive the ball, exchanged quick passes with their teammates, and then turned to bomb forward themselves or play balls through or over the defense. That quick passing and clever movement was a theme for OCSC as a whole, but the two forwards were the best examples of it with Angulo coming a close third.

The speed of play for Orlando meant that the team had a lot of joy in transition moments, and the Lions constantly seemed to be springing players behind the defense, or running at San Jose’s defense with men in support. Only some poor execution when it came to passing and finishing in the final third prevented the good guys from putting even more goals on the board.

When it came to keeping the ball out of their own net, the Lions did several things very well. For one thing, the defense seemed to be more organized than we’ve seen it this year, aside perhaps from the U.S. Open Cup win against Atlanta. Orlando caught San Jose offside seven times on Wednesday, and on several occasions it was more down to the defense stepping together as a unit and staying in a disciplined line than it was on the Earthquakes being lazy or mistiming their runs.

When San Jose did carve out good chances, Crepeau was a towering presence in between the posts for the Lions. His seven saves will take the headlines, but there were also several instances where he was quick and smart in coming off his line to beat a San Jose runner to a ball and prevent a 1-v-1 situation. He also made several of his best saves on shots that were ultimately ruled out for offside or he almost certainly would have cracked double digits. It was a pre-eminent performance, and he looked to be brimming with confidence after a good showing for Canada at the World Cup.

Now to be objective, OCSC had some things working in its favor. San Jose was without Niko Tsarikis, who has two goals and four assists in 11 games (then again, the Lions were without Martin Ojeda, Marco Pasalic, and Daryl Dike), and the Earthquakes’ finishing was…not great. Two particular instances stood out: Beau Leroux missing wide left in the 38th minute when he was unmarked at the top of the six-yard box, and Jack Skahan touching a ball toward on onrushing Crepeau in the 57th minute rather than passing to a wide-open Ousseni Bouda for a tap-in. There were also several times when a ‘Quakes player just missed getting on the end of a ball in a dangerous area, or when bad giveaways in dangerous areas by the Lions went unpunished.

San Jose also made some unforced errors of its own, like the turnover that led to Griezmann’s goal. Then there was the set piece marking, which was atrocious. Brekalo and Ojeda were both completely unmarked for their goals, and it was shockingly bad defending for a team that hadn’t given up any set piece goals going into Wednesday’s game.

Now, what exactly should we make of all this?

Well, when it comes to what Orlando did, there’s an argument to be made that the team’s offensive performance from open play can be replicated. The team has had plenty of time to work on this position-less style of play on the training ground and was still having lots of joy with its quick passing and fluid movement even after San Jose had time to make halftime adjustments. The defense mostly held up well and stayed organized against one of the league’s more potent attacks, and when the Earthquakes did create chances, Crepeau kept up the form he showed in his last four games for Canada.

Orlando could also have benefitted from Tiago and Tyrese Spicer finishing clear-cut chances they were given by Ellis, Atuesta, and Griezmann. Martin Ojeda’s return and the addition of Dike can help chances turn into goals.

On the flip side, this is the first time anyone’s seen the Lions try to play this way, so its always going to be tougher to stop something you haven’t been able to train for. The element of surprise isn’t something that should be discounted when it comes to Wednesday. Other teams may make Orlando pay for some of the shaky moments that it had at the back, and not every team is going to make three big errors that the Lions can take advantage of.


For me, the answer lies somewhere between the two ends of the spectrum. I do not expect the Lions to look like 2008-2009 Barcelona every week, but I also don’t think its fair to say that Orlando simply benefitted from favorable circumstances and bounces. It’s perhaps best to say that OCSC did things that can be replicated, but there’s no guarantee those things will be replicated. The movement, passing, decision-making, defensive organization, and goalkeeping are things that can build a good foundation for success if Orlando can repeat them, and those are the things I’d focus on more than the number of goals or the clean sheet.

At the end of the day, we’re working on a small sample size and shouldn’t get carried away by one game, regardless of how fun it was. Wednesday’s performance wasn’t necessarily an illusion or the truth of what this team is. Rather, it was a glimpse of what this team has an opportunity to be. There’s work to be done and areas that can be improved on, but the Lions showed enough in San Jose for us to have hope for a season that’s looked hopeless more often than not. Vamos Orlando.

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Opinion

A Summer Catharsis

I’ve got a lot of things on my mind, and now you’re going to hear about it.

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Dan MacDonald, The Mane Land

I’ve been told that it’s not healthy to hold in negative emotions. Doing so leads to resentment, high blood pressure, and a weakened immune system. As such, I’m going to take this opportunity to let out some frustrations I currently have about the soccer I care about in my life. Perhaps you share some of these frustrations? I’m hoping that doing so will allow me to let go of the negative and move into a healthier head space. Here we go.

The World Cup

I have mostly enjoyed this World Cup. There have been amazing matches and interesting stories. However, there are some things that have frustrated me. The whole Folarin Balogun red card situation was a debacle from the start. The card shouldn’t have been given and FIFA should have corrected it within 24 hours if it was going to do so. One ridiculously corrupt person shouldn’t have called another ridiculously corrupt person in an effort to make it “better,” because it ended up having the opposite effect.

The USMNT had all the good vibes. The team was playing free-flowing, beautiful football. The rest of the world didn’t have the animosity toward our team or our fans as much as in the past. That all changed after FIFA’s decision. I want to be clear that all of this was decided well above Balogun, the other players, the coaches, and even U.S. Soccer. Despite that, the people harmed were the players and the coaches. I believe it galvanized a Belgium squad that wasn’t playing as well before the controversy. I’m not saying the U.S. would have won the match, but the vibes were off and it showed in the way the team played.

The other thing that is bothering me is the disparity of decisions resulting in potentially game-changing penalties and disciplinary decisions between smaller countries and traditional powerhouse nations so far this World Cup. By disparity I mean 9-0 in favor of the traditional powerhouses. A disproportionate number have been in matches featuring Argentina, but I’m sure everything is on the up and up. After all, we’re talking about FIFA, right? I need to go get my tinfoil hat.

The Orlando Pride

We’re less than two years removed from the Orlando Pride winning the double in 2024. There are plenty of players from that squad still on the team, yet you would be hard pressed to think it’s the same team. To be fair, there are a lot of factors as to why, but that doesn’t mean I have to like it.

Kylie Nadaner is rightly taking time to give birth to future Orlando City player Nolan. We also saw the departures of Haley Carter from management and Emily Sams from the back line. Rafaelle has mostly been an excellent player at center back, but the team didn’t go get someone to play with her. I still believe Hailie Mace was brought in to be a center back despite not really being a center back. The club dropped the ball in not getting an actual center back after Sams left and Nadaner went on maternity leave.

Jacquie Ovalle was brought in to complete an attack that would have included Barbra Banda and Marta. Thanks to injuries, we have yet to see that trio together. The Pride don’t have a viable backup striker, and Banda will soon be gone for the Women’s Africa Cup of Nations tournament. Not adding an additional striker was another personnel failure for the club.

So many of the players who played above their heads in 2024 have regressed since. Julie Doyle and Summer Yates have all but disappeared. Angelina hasn’t looked like her best self, and the same can be said about many others. The Pride lead the league with 14 free agents, meaning there is an opportunity for a rebuild. I don’t like that it comes so soon after winning everything, but here we are.

I mentioned above about Carter leaving. The club did have one notable acquisition in bringing on Caitlin Carducci as her successor. I’m hopeful that the Pride can turn things around, though I think it will mean a lot of turnover in the roster. The issue is what happens while we’re waiting on Carducci to implement her vision. This team is barely hanging onto a playoff spot, and I don’t have a lot of confidence the Pride can grind out enough results to get over the line.


I know that was a lot of negativity, but I feel better after writing it all down. I remain a dedicated supporter of both the Pride and the USMNT. If you’re wondering why I didn’t include my frustrations about Orlando City, it’s because I’m waiting to see what Martin Perelman can do after what is effectively a preseason, thanks to the World Cup break and the arrival of Antione Griezmann. If things don’t get better I’ll revisit that in the future.

Thank you for going along on my mental health journey. Hopefully, you found some peace as well. Vamos Orlando!

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Opinion

In Praise of the Unity Kit

The Orlando Pride hit it out of the park on their newest secondary kit.

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Image courtesy of Orlando Pride

When it comes to soccer jerseys, I can perhaps be unfairly critical. I like what I like, and in a time when new jerseys cost at least $100 if not closer to $150, I have to be seriously impressed by something in order to shell out that much money. While I’ve liked most of the jerseys that Orlando City and the Orlando Pride have put out over the years, I’ve never liked one enough to spend my own money to buy one, although I did receive a Heart and Sol jersey as a birthday present several years ago. The one exception has been the Sea Cow prematch top that the club put out in 2023, which I bought instantly and would have happily forked over one of my kidneys to acquire (as any sane person would).

I might very well be adding a new jersey to the closet soon though, because the Orlando Pride absolutely knocked it out of the park with the Unity Kit that they released on Thursday. I’m now going to shut up for a second and let you feast your eyes on this beauty.

That is just fantastic, and let’s talk about why. First of all, the base color is light purple, and while that isn’t traditionally in the Pride’s color palette as they favor a more royal purple shared by Orlando City, it is still purple. It’s also a light enough base color for the team to be able to use it as an away jersey without simply making the background color white. While I wouldn’t necessarily have an issue with a white base, that’s pretty common with away jerseys and the light purple is a good way to do something different while still providing a good contrast between it and an opponent’s dark home jersey.

If you were missing the Pride’s more traditional color of purple, fear not! The decision to use it on the collar and sleeves is a great one, as it gives the jersey a really nice splash of contrast in a shirt that could otherwise risk being washed out by all of the pastel tones that are present. The same color is also present in the badge, name, numbers, sponsors, and jock tag, and pops very well because its used so sparingly.

When viewed from a distance, the collars and sleeves provide a good outline for the kit, while the eye gets a general sense of intermingled pastel tones as the ribbons blend into each other well, and while no one color is definable, it isn’t an assault on the eyes either.

Closer up though, the ribbons are far more vibrant and detailed, and you notice that rather than simply being uniform colors for each one, they’re actually made up of several different colors that blend together and intertwine, and the effect is pulled off really well. For me, its a shirt that be appreciated both further away, and right in front of your face, and that isn’t always the easiest thing to do.

Suffice it to say, I’m a huge fan of how this thing looks. A lot of thought was clearly put into the design, and it was executed well. I want to talk about more than just the way it looks though.

We’re 10 years on from the mass shooting at Pulse nightclub that took the lives of 49 people, and the Pride and overarching ownership have a new way of honoring the victims and remembering a period of time that was so difficult for the city. The rainbow seats at Inter&Co Stadium have served the same purpose since the ground was opened back in 2017, but the Pride will be using the new jersey to honor both the victims and the way in which the city came together after the tragedy, while also putting their money where their mouth is.

The team’s decision to donate $20,000 from sales of the jersey to The Center Orlando and its Orlando United Resiliency Services (OURS) program is a very good touch on what was already a well-thought out kit. The program’s purpose is to provide advocacy, education, and support for the Orlando area’s LGBTQ+ community, and as someone who believes sports teams should be active and positive pillars in the community where they play, I couldn’t be happier to see this. It’s a decision that the team was under no obligation to make, but in choosing to go the extra mile, it proved that the club is more than just empty words and gestures when it comes to issues that hit close to home.


In short, the Unity Kit checks all the boxes for me, including ones I didn’t even know I had. It looks great from a distance, has thoughtful and well-executed details when seen up close, and represents something important while also actively honoring and helping to provide resources for a marginalized community. To everyone who was involved with the concept and execution of this jersey, I salute you. Consider it a job very well done.

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