Opinion
How Much Longer will Duncan McGuire be Dunc-ing on Orlando City’s Opponents?
A look into Duncan McGuire’s tenure with Orlando City and an evaluation of what the next few months may look like for him now that he has returned from the Olympics.

I love dunking. Oreos, Dunkaroos, my son in the pool, basketballs on a lowered rim — I love all types of dunking. You do too, I know you do. In fact, I think dunking is universally loved by everyone, except the NCAA during the 1960s, when they outlawed dunking in basketball because Lew Alcindor (now known as Kareem Abdul-Jabbar) was unstoppable and they were trying to find a way to make college basketball games more interesting.
Frédéric Weis probably also does not love dunking (France, Olympics, basketball, this is the time of all times to reference that dunk), but that may be it for those who were or are anti-dunk. I also love Dunkin’, and their slogan, “America runs on Dunkin’,” which Orlando City fans co-opted to Orlando runs on Duncan (McGuire), who is the subject of my focus this week. Duncan has returned from the Olympics but the question on all of our minds now is: for how long?
That we are even asking that question two years into McGuire’s professional career is a testament to his skill and will, because he is one of only four players from the entire 2023 MLS SuperDraft (88 selections) to have played more than 2,500 MLS minutes, and as the sixth overall pick, he was drafted four spots behind teammate Shak Mohammed, who has played only five MLS minutes in his career thus far. MLS draftees generally do not blossom so quickly that they are European targets after their first season, though Orlando City has had more success than most in the SuperDraft, as they drafted Cyle Larin, Chris Mueller and Daryl Dike, all of whom play(ed) in Europe after starting their careers in Orlando.
While Duncan was not Orlando City’s top pick in 2023 he was still a top six overall pick, so he did come in with some pedigree, but he was not a player who came up playing on youth national teams and with the expectation that he would walk right into minutes as a professional player. He did not play in either of his first two professional matches, and for the opening half of the 2023 season he generally sat behind Ercan Kara and then came in as a sub at some point in the final third of the game. But in those limited minutes he showed that his style of play was better suited to partnering with the rest of the Orlando City attack than that of Kara, leading to Kara’s return to Europe and McGuire taking over as the team’s primary striker.
Looking at his stats in 2023, it is easy to see why he took over that starting role, as using stats found on fbref.com, McGuire finished tied for 12th in goals (13), was third in goals per 90 minutes (0.84), and led MLS in shots-on-target percentage (72.7%), percentage of shots that became goals (39%), and goals – expected goals (+7.7). In general, I do not love bringing in expected goals as a stat, but in some cases it can be instructive, and in this case I think it is, because expected goals measure the average likelihood of a player scoring a goal from a specific location. That means McGuire scored 7.7 more goals than the average player would have been expected to score from where he took his shots in 2023.
Here are his 2023 MLS shots, courtesy of fotmob.com’s shot chart (the red circle is his final goal of 2023, because the site does not have a view without at least one shot highlighted):

Interestingly, that shot from near the midfield line has an expected goal value of 0.03, meaning the coders who set the values expect a goal about once in every 33 shots from there. I disagree. Vehemently.
Coming back to Duncan, let’s look at how he has been doing in 2024 as compared to 2023 in those same categories where he did so well, with one additional stat added in for comparison purposes (MLS rank among qualified players is shown in parentheses for the metrics; t means tied for):

Yes, the numbers on the right do not look quite as impressive as those on the left, as there are no top 10 rankings in any of these metrics so far this year. However, McGuire’s 2024 numbers are not bad, they are just not quite as good as 2023, except for the fact that when he shoots it on target he scores at exactly the same clip as he did in 2023, which is likely not coincidental and is a product of his shooting proficiency.
With about one quarter of the season left to play, he will have plenty of chances to increase his goal tally (unless he’s transferred out), and he also can make some improvements on the other percentage-based metrics as well. I do not think he will get to 13 goals again, but he has a shot to get to 10, which could make him the third or fourth (depending on if Facundo Torres also scores 10 goals) Orlando City player ever to have multiple 10+ goals in an MLS season. McGuire also now has 20 MLS goals in his first two seasons, and I expect he will get a few more before the end of the 2024 campaign, which I will come back to after a quick detour to look at those 20 total goals.
That 20 goals made for a nice round number, so I took a look at this decade (the 2020s) to see how many players in their age 23 or younger season had scored at least 20 MLS goals. The answer: 17. My dad, the world’s foremost pointer outer (go with it) of the prevalence of how often 17 shows up in the world is nodding his head and saying he knew it would be 17.
For those wondering, the leader this decade in goals scored by young players is FC Dallas forward Jesús Ferreira, who has scored 43 goals and will not turn 24 until this December. Ferreira has scored those 43 goals in 8,950 MLS minutes, McGuire’s 20 goals were scored in only 2,730 MLS minutes, the fewest of any of those 17 players. Duncan’s career MLS goals per 90 minutes is 0.66, which ranks him first among those 17 young players and also fourth in all of MLS (among players of any age) in this decade. The other three in the top four (Giorgos Giakoumakis, Chicho Arango, and Cucho Hernandez — presented in order of rank) were/are all Designated Players and all had/have salaries at least 20 times higher than McGuire’s, according to the MLS Salary Guide.
I mentioned that I would come back to the fact that I expect Duncan to score a few more goals this season, and that is because I think that he will finish this season with Orlando City. I have no inside information. I just think it makes more sense for him to finish this MLS season strongly and then depart in the MLS off-season, which is right smack in the middle of European seasons, when there will be teams who really need a striker due to injury or a relegation battle or because they are chasing promotion — like Barnsley was several years ago when the club made a loan deal for Daryl Dike to try to win promotion to the Premier League. It is no secret that McGuire wants to play in Europe, and he clearly has the ability to do so based on his stats and the eye test, but as it usually comes down to, it will be about timing and the purchase price.
Transfermarkt values Duncan at €5 million (approximately $5.46 million), third highest on Orlando City behind Facundo Torres (€14 million, $15.26 million) and MartÃn Ojeda (€6 million, $6.54 million), tied for 33rd overall among all MLS players, and tied for 12th among players 23 or younger. For a player who cost Orlando City nothing to acquire, any compensation would be nearly pure profit, so the team has an incentive to sell him as opposed to letting him play out his contract and leave for free.
McGuire had an opportunity to break out at the Olympics and drive up immediate interest, but the U.S. Olympic Team was not really set up in a way to maximize, or really even utilize at all, his talents, and he did not contribute any goals or assists. I do not think this Olympic performance will affect how talent evaluators and other teams view him, but had he scored some goals or contributed more than just his trademark max effort at all times, that could have been a catalyst for a move before the end of the MLS transfer window on Aug. 14.
Alas for Duncan, it did not go the way he had hoped, but as he always does, he left it all out on the field…and then left France the following day (Saturday), returning to Orlando in time to sub in during the Leagues Cup match on Sunday night. That’s impressive dedication, and it indicated to me that he is locked in on getting on the field and showing what he can do again.
He did return to a different Orlando City team though, one with a scorching-hot Ramiro Enrique playing in what was McGuire’s striker role and on a five, which became six, game scoring run. We may see the return of supersub Duncan for a while, reminiscent of his first few months in 2023, but I think that by the end of the season we will see McGuire back as the starting striker. If so, it will mean he is in good form, because Enrique is only going to be beaten out by a deserving player.
I think this is a best-case scenario for Orlando City — a highly motivated McGuire who wants his spot back and who wants to show European evaluators that they should bring him across the Atlantic, and a highly motivated Enrique, who wants to keep his starting spot and who will want to be the clear choice to be the starter when Duncan eventually does leave.
Orlando City fans are in for 90 minutes of strong striker play in every match now that McGuire is back and Enrique has come on like the proverbial freight train, and I think we have a good chance to see another end-of-season run coming for the Lions down the stretch.
As the Pride’s Kerry Abello always says, vamos!
Opinion
Likes and Dislikes from this Week of Orlando City’s Preseason
Let’s break down some good and bad things from this past week of preseason preparations.

It’s Friday once again, and just like that we find ourselves barely over a week away from the start of the 2025 Major League Soccer season. It feels like this off-season has passed by in a blur, and somehow the Lions are already about to play their final preseason match later today. This week was another busy one for Orlando City, so let’s run through some things that I liked from this week and some things that I didn’t.
Likes
Eduard Atuesta Arrives
It took awhile, and the transfer saga had some twists and turns, but Orlando City landed Eduard Atuesta to replace the injured Wilder Cartagena. Given the league’s budget constraints and the fact that he isn’t a Designated Player, Atuesta is about as good a replacement as fans could have hoped for. Not only is he familiar with the league, but he knows what it takes to win here, as he helped LAFC win the Supporters’ Shield and U.S. Open Cup during his time with the California club. Plus, he theoretically offers more going forward than Cartagena typically does, which could add a much-needed extra punch to the Lions’ offense. The structuring of a one-year deal with an additional club option also gives OCSC some flexibility at the end of the season if the Lions decide they want to move on, but if he replicates the form he typically showed at LAFC, then that option year can be triggered.
New Kit Looks Sharp
The club also debuted its new home jersey this week. Dubbed the “Perfect Storm” kit, no two are supposedly alike, as it pays tribute to the intensity and unpredictability of Central Florida’s weather. For my money, it isn’t anything revolutionary, but there’s a lot to like about it. The pattern is interesting without being too overwhelming, the collar adds a pop of welcome gold to the purple and white motif, and the 407 lightning bolt and doppler radar storm patches are nice, vibrant touches. Teams were also permitted to customize the Apple logo on the sleeves this year, and Orlando chose to do so by incorporating the lion’s mane/sun element of the club crest into the logo. My biggest gripe is that the pattern is only on the front of the jersey while the back is plain purple, but overall I really like it.
Dislikes
Thin Cupboards at Striker and Fullback
Stop me if you’ve heard this one before, but Orlando City is still looking short on bodies at striker and fullback. Granted, the striker position will look better once Duncan McGuire returns, but that’s likely to be at least six to eight weeks away. Fullback isn’t quite as dire, as the Lions have Kyle Smith, Mikey Halliday, and Alex Freeman, who are all in contention to come off the bench. There are caveats though, as Halliday has struggled with injuries the last two seasons, and while Freeman was outstanding with Orlando City B last year, he’s almost completely untested at the MLS level. Plus, all three of Smith, Halliday, and Freeman are most comfortable on the right side. You obviously don’t want to take minutes away from the young guys, but I’d feel a lot better if there was a proven vet in the fold.
Final Preseason Match Prices
At the time of writing, the cheapest ticket listed for today’s preseason match against Inter Miami is $49 plus fees. That gets you in the door and up in the 300 level of Raymond James Stadium; any lower down than that and you’re looking at $65 plus fees and higher. It isn’t the most egregious pricing I’ve ever seen, but at the same time, when my season ticket in The Wall breaks down to being about $19 a game, it’s hard to not feel a little put off. I’m not saying that this is the club’s fault as I don’t know who set the pricing for the event, but I just don’t have much interest in paying over $100 for two people to go to a preseason match. It’s a shame, since Ray-J is about a five-minute drive from my house, but that’s the way it goes sometimes.
What stood out to you from this week of Orlando City’s preseason preparations? Be sure to have your say down in the comments. Vamos Orlando!
Opinion
Likes and Dislikes from this Week of Orlando City’s Preseason
Let’s talk through some of the good and bad from this week of the Lions’ preseason preparations.

Just like that, another week of Orlando City’s preseason is in the books. We’ll be staring down the barrel of the season opener before we know it, but let’s make sure we take the time to stop and reflect on some good and some not-so-good things that took place this week.
Likes
Marco Pasalic Arrives
Orlando City is back up to three Designated Players after the club completed the signing of Croatian winger Marco Pasalic. It’s a piece of business that has been rumored for awhile now but took some time to get done and across the line. Between Pasalic and the previous signing of Nicolas Rodriguez, the Lions have got bodies to fill the right wing position. While neither is likely to be able to immediately replace the production of Facundo Torres on their own, they’re both young and will have the chance to grow their games and show what they can do.
Season Ticket Member Match
OCSC will take on CF Montreal Saturday in a preseason scrimmage which is an event exclusive to season ticket holders. This is the sort of thing that I, along with my fellow season ticket members on staff, love to see. An event that rewards you for that membership and does so by giving you an extra peek at the team before everyone else. It might not be some wildly extravagant event, but it doesn’t need to be. The club has formed a habit of designating one of the preseason scrimmages a season-ticket-members-only event, and for my money, it’s been a good call.
Dislikes
Closed Door Scrimmage Radio Silence
This feels a little nitpicky, as closed-door scrimmages are by their very nature, closed door. The whole point of them is to not have a ton of access and insight about what’s going on, and teams will often agree beforehand about what level of information, if any, will make its way out to the public afterwards. We know that Orlando took on Atlanta United in a preseason scrimmage Wednesday, and we know that Alex Freeman put in a goal from a header, thanks to a post from the club on the website formerly known as Twitter, but that’s about it. It feels greedy to ask for information from something we weren’t guaranteed to get any from in the first place, but the brief taste has me wanting more, damnit.
Depth Still a Worry at Several Positions
As stated above, getting Pasalic in the door means that the Lions now have the winger slots fairly well stocked, but there are still other areas on the field that could use some reinforcement. The most crucial of those remains defensive midfielder, and although the rumored arrival of Eduard Atuesta would help considerably, I’m not counting him as a Lion until pen has been put to paper. If he does get signed, that still leaves striker and fullback perilously thin when it comes to guys who are proven MLS-caliber players, and the first game of the season is just shy of two weeks from now. There’s still time to do business, but the clock continues to tick.
What jumped out at you from this week of OCSC’s preseason? Be sure to have your say down in the comments. Vamos Orlando!
Opinion
Likes and Dislikes from this Week of Orlando City’s Preseason
Orlando City’s third week of preparation had some good things and some not so good things.

We have another week of Orlando City’s preseason in the books, and while it seems hard to believe, it’s been almost three weeks since the Lions got back in the lab and started preparing for the 2025 campaign. There have been lots of new talking points this week too, and its been a bit of a mixed bag. Let’s have a look at some of the good and bad from this past week.
Likes
Victory (Kind of) vs. Atletico Mineiro
Okay, so it technically wasn’t a victory since the game ended in a scoreless draw. The Lions did get the job done from the penalty spot though, as they won the shootout 6-5 to claim whatever the Inter&Co Trophy is. More important than the result though, was the fact that OCSC played pretty well. Orlando created a good amount of opportunities, but as seems to be the fatal flaw with this team, the finishing was definitely on the rusty side. It was perhaps unlucky that some of the Lions’ best chances fell to youngsters, but the good news is that the chances were being created. It was a positive first showing that the team can hopefully build on.
Back in the U.S. Open Cup
A lot of fans, myself included, had big issues with the Lions not being a participant in the U.S. Open Cup last year. It’s a tournament that is near and dear to a lot of Orlando fans, given that OCSC has won the whole damn thing once, had other special moments like The Running of the Wall, and has generally made decent runs in the competition. It was welcome news to hear that Orlando will be back in the competition this year, along with 15 other MLS teams that will enter the competition during the Round of 32. The tournament has a charm and a special place in my heart, and it’s exactly where the Lions should be.
Two Games, Two Clean Sheets
Nic Josey has gone on the record stating that Orlando City will need strong, steady performances from its defense if the team wants to avoid a slow start to the season like we saw in 2024. It’s only preseason, and we shouldn’t get too carried away, but so far so good, as the Lions have recorded a clean sheet in each of their two preseason games. Whether that will mean a damn thing once the regular season starts is anyone’s guess, but it’s a hell of a lot better than giving up buckets of goals in the preseason.
Dislikes
Wilder Cartagena’s Injury
We still don’t have official confirmation on the injury that Wilder Cartagena suffered during Saturday’s preseason match, but all the reports point to an Achilles Tendon injury, with ESPN’s Diego Montalvan going as far to say that he’ll be undergoing surgery. If that proves to be the case then it’s a doomsday scenario indeed for the Lions, as Cartagena could miss anywhere from six months to a whole year. He’s proven to be a vital part of what makes Orlando City tick, and replacing him is going to be far from an easy task.
Summer Fixture Frenzy
Along with the U.S. Open Cup, the Lions will once again be participating in Leagues Cup, and that’s presented them with a hellish slate of matches to finish out the summer. In a stretch from mid-July to mid-August OCSC will play a positively hellish eight games in 29 days, with that number potentially rising even higher if the club goes deep in the Open Cup (unless the two competitions decide to play nice and work with each other on scheduling). Not to mention that six of those eight games will take place at home in the punishing Florida heat and humidity. Either some guys are going to need to get signed, the kids are going to get some good experience, or something is going to give. Speaking of…
The Continued Wait for Reinforcements
Orlando City has made a couple signings in the last two weeks, with the most notable of those being winger Nicolas Rodriguez, with goalkeeper Carlos Mercado getting re-signed on Thursday. That’s a start, but Cartagena needs to be replaced, Jack Lynn’s retirement and Duncan McGuire’s shoulder injury mean the striker corps is dangerously thin, and the team could use help with depth at midfield and fullback. That’s a hell of a lot of business that needs to get done, and there hasn’t been much in the way of substantive chatter in the transfer rumor mill lately. The sooner signings are made, the more time they have to get integrated with their new surroundings before the season starts, but time is fast running out for that to happen.
There you have it folks. Life is full of peaks and valleys, and this week for Orlando City was a good reflection of that. What things jumped out to you this week, and what are you hoping to see as we move into the fourth week of preseason? Be sure to have your say down in the comments. Vamos Orlando!
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