Orlando City
Orlando City’s Hot and Cold Streaks Tell the Story of the 2024 Season
An evaluation of scoring trends this season, with a focus on Orlando City’s recent hot and cold streaks.

There is a story — maybe real, maybe apocryphal — of a college statistics professor who asked his students to go home and flip a coin 100 times, and then then to write down on each flip whether it was heads (H) or tails (T). He would then walk around the classroom during the next class and would correctly call out whether a student had actually done the exercise or they had made up the results, just by looking at their Hs and Ts.
His reasoning was that while over the long haul the ratio of heads to tails will be approximately 50:50, in small samples it does not work like that. Those who made up their homework would not put a run of 5,6, 7 or more heads in a row, for example, but those who actually flipped would see the occasional long run.
A similar idea is shown on the recent numbers board above roulette wheels in every casino, where it’s often jarring to see many red or black numbers on display consecutively because the mind is trained to assume that it should be even between the colors since there are 18 red numbers and 18 black numbers on the wheel. I may have played a lot of roulette in my life. We need not go into more detail.
Is there going to be a point to this? Yes. Coins, roulette wheels, rock/paper/scissors, they all generally fall out to similar ratios overall, but in short numbers, they are streaky. Athletes and teams are no different, it happens to them as well.
Baseball is the sport most associated with statistics, and in particular people talk most frequently about a batting average, which is calculated by the number of hits divided by the number of at bats. Three hits out of 10 at bats is a .300 batting average, but hitters who bat around that number rarely get three hits out of every ten at bats if you look at a list of 10 at bat chunks during a season. I could really torture this with examples, but you came here to read about soccer. My point is that players and teams run hot and cold far more often than data would indicate when you are looking at aggregated stats, and Orlando City is no exception.
Thus far this season, Orlando City has had two streaks of three losses and one draw in four matches, and also one streak of four straight wins in four matches. Ramiro Enrique scored a goal in six straight matches, and Pedro Gallese and the defense went a little more than 2.5 straight games without giving up a goal. The offense scored five goals in five MLS games during March and then 14 goals in five MLS games during July. It is not quite to the level of Will Ferrell in Old School, but there has definitely been some streaking going on during the 2024 Orlando City season.
Enrique’s streak was particularly hard to fathom, because according to fbref.com’s tracking prior to the initial goal against D.C. United that started his streak, his career average in games for Banfield of Argentina and Orlando City had been 0.24 goals per 90 minutes, and then all of a sudden he accelerated to 1.34 goals per 90 minutes during his six-match run. Subsequent to that, he has now gone consecutive games without a goal, which feels like a major letdown, when in fact, if you look across his career, it is actually not that surprising. Including his recent run of form, Enrique is now right around 0.33 goals per 90 minutes for his career, or about one goal per every three games…exactly what he has produced in his last three matches.
Was the streak a new normal? Probably not. Were the last two scoreless games a new normal? Probably not, but such is the nature of a streak. On the whole, it washes out in the numbers, but in the moment it felt amazing as a fan in July and felt particularly vexing as a fan more recently. How dare Enrique not continue to score like Messi in his prime for more than six matches!
On a broader scale, as I mentioned earlier, Orlando City as a team was scorching hot in July, scoring 14 goals in five MLS matches and 18 goals in all competitions (six matches), for a nice tidy three-goals-per-game average during the full month. This has been followed by a freezing cold (thus far) August, and looking at the data around the Lions’ performance provides a great view of the statistical concept of regression to the mean.
The averages through the first 24 matches (Concacaf Champions Cup and MLS) of the season are in the first row below. Then there was a big improvement during July (MLS and Leagues Cup), the second row. Finally, August (MLS and Leagues Cup), the third row, has been well below the initial averages, meaning that the full season averages in the fourth row are basically the same as they were in the first row, despite an outstanding July and a thus far not-so-outstanding August. (Note: own goals are not included in the data):

There are always many factors than can lead to success or struggle on the field, but over the long haul of a season, all teams have highs and lows, and the target is really to minimize the lows and to build toward having the highs towards the end of the season, when the playoffs start. This was certainly the case for the 2023 Orlando City team, which went 11-2-2 during its final 15 matches of the MLS regular season after going 7-7-5 during the first 19 matches.
With eight matches remaining in the season, the 2024 version of Orlando City could still come close to that 2023 team’s season-ending run of form, as even with the loss last week the Lions are still 4-1-2 in their last seven matches and one of only three Eastern Conference teams with 10 or more points in their last five matches. Losing at Sporting Kansas City hurt, as that was a winnable game against a bottom-of-the-table team, but the Lions can get back on the right foot (yes, even you, Facundo Torres, can get on the right foot) at home on Saturday against Nashville. When your opponent comes into the match having lost its last seven games in a row in MLS play by a combined score of 18-3, that is a game you need to win, especially when you are playing at home and coming off a frustrating loss.
To do so the Lions will need to blow up the idea that their July form was just a hot streak that will be immediately offset by an August cold streak, netting them out in the middle. The 2023 season is a blueprint follow to avoid regression to the mean and to find sustained success. And with three straight home games coming up, we will quickly see whether the game in Kansas City was an aberration, or another flashing indicator that this season will continue to be one of hot and cold streaks.
Orlando City
Orlando City Showing Signs of Adjusting to Eduard Atuesta’s Absence
The Lions have looked much better on offense the last two games, and there’s a couple of reasons why.

Much has been made of Orlando City’s difficulties in creating chances and scoring goals when Eduard Atuesta has been unavailable due to injury. It’s not hard to understand why either. The Colombian was unavailable for three of Orlando’s four scoreless draws this year, and he only played nine minutes as a substitute in the stalemate against the New York Red Bulls on April 12.
When he was healthy and got the start against Atlanta United two games later, the Lions won 3-0 and he created the most chances of anyone in the game with three. Orlando then promptly reverted to being offensively stunted in the following game against the Chicago Fire, and was only able to manage its fourth scoreless draw of the year, despite playing over a half the game with a man advantage.
There certainly seemed to be plenty of evidence pointing towards Atuesta being the missing cog in Orlando City’s offense. While he only has two assists in eight games, he does a ton of work in linking the defense to the attack and is great at finding attacking players in dangerous areas, as evidenced by his 17 key passes. In the 0-0 draws with the Philadelphia Union, CF Montreal, and the Fire, Orlando just didn’t look right without him, although the Red Bulls game was a much better performance that was ultimately derailed by Rodrigo Schlegel’s sending off.
While he hasn’t played in either of Orlando’s last two league matches, a 3-3 draw against the New England Revolution, and a 3-1 win against Charlotte FC, the offense clearly hasn’t had any problem creating chances. If anything, the Lions should have scored more goals if not for a couple instances of less-than-crisp finishing in each match.
So, why the sudden change?
Well for one thing, the Designated Players are firing on all cylinders again. Martin Ojeda scored a hat trick against New England, and he and Luis Muriel scored Orlando’s first two goals against Charlotte. Ojeda didn’t start either of the two games against Atlanta and Chicago because he was dealing with a minor injury, but now that it’s in the rearview mirror, he’s been a man possessed. Muriel probably should have had at least one goal of his own against the Revs but seemed oddly reluctant to shoot, although he still completed three dribbles and delivered three key passes. The Charlotte game was then his turn to come out of the gate swinging, as he narrowly had a goal ruled out for offside just two minutes in, before hammering a venomous shot from distance just six minutes later that gave Kristijan Kahlina all sorts of trouble and opened the scoring.
It isn’t just getting contributions from the big guns though, because we need to acknowledge the play of rookie Joran Gerbet in these last two games. He’s the man who’s been asked to fill in for Atuesta next to Cesar Araujo, and he’s getting more and more comfortable in that role. Against the Revs he had an interception, a key pass and an assist, and completed a long ball and a through ball while recording a passing accuracy of 86.5%. Against Charlotte, he recorded an interception, three clearances, a completed dribble, and two successful long balls, and he had an outstanding passing accuracy of 98%. They weren’t all simply backwards or sideways passes either. There were plenty of times when he progressed the ball upfield to an attacking player and helped keep the Lions moving forward, and that’s exactly what you want out of the guy playing that position.
He still has a way to go before reaching Atuesta’s level, but that’s to be expected for a guy that’s playing the first professional season of his career. What’s most important is that he’s getting more comfortable, contributing, and proving that he can be a legitimate option to rotate into the starting XI when Atuesta is unavailable or when fixture congestion dictates changes to the lineup.
It’s worth mentioning the caveat that the last two games haven’t been against the strongest opposition the league has to offer. The Revs were on a four-game winning streak before playing Orlando, but three of those four wins were against weak or shaky teams in Atlanta, Toronto FC, and Charlotte, while the fourth team (NYCFC) has been difficult to get a read on. I’m not saying the Revs are a paper tiger, but it’s tough to know how good they really are despite a good run of recent form. Then you have Charlotte, which was above the playoff line but also on a three-game losing streak coming into the match that has now been convincingly extended to four.
At the end of the day, you can only beat who’s in front of you, but I’d encourage us all to not get too carried away until we see the same results against sterner opposition. For better or worse, that’s exactly what we’ll get in the Lions’ next three matches, which will be against a capable, albeit flawed, Inter Miami side on the road, at home in the U.S. Open Cup against a Nashville SC team that’s fourth in the East, and at home against the Portland Timbers, who are currently fourth in the West.
Ultimately, we can only judge this team on what we’ve seen from it, and over the last two games we’ve seen a side that’s had no trouble creating chances. Despite the continued absence of the important Atuesta, the Lions are adjusting thanks to contributions from their heavy hitters and the improving play of the rookie Gerbet. Only time will tell if those improvements are sustainable, but for now its a hell of a lot of fun to enjoy.
Lion Links
Lion Links: 5/16/25
Orlando City players make MLS Team of the Matchday, Luis Muriel focused, Orlando Pride plays tonight, and more.

Happy Friday! I’ve had a pretty good week so far and am looking forward to three straight days of Orlando soccer. The Orlando Pride will get us started tonight and then we have Orlando City B on Saturday before Orlando City plays on Sunday. It should be a fun next few days, and hopefully one filled with celebrations too. Let’s dive into today’s links!
Lions Make MLS Team of the Matchday
There’s plenty of purple in the latest MLS Team of the Matchday following Orlando City’s 3-1 win over Charlotte FC. Martin Ojeda and David Brekalo were both selected, while Oscar Pareja was chosen as the top coach from the midweek slate. Ojeda’s strike in the first half is also up for Goal of the Matchday as his strong run of form continues. The only outfield player on this Team of the Matchday that didn’t score is Brekalo, who had two assists, so it’s nice to see him receive deserved recognition for an excellent performance that included a great setup on Orlando’s third goal. Pareja has the Lions on an 11-game unbeaten streak across all competitions and is managing things well so far during this busy May.
Luis Muriel Staying Focused in Sophomore Season
With five goals so far this season, Orlando City forward Luis Muriel has already mirrored his scoring total from all of last season. Staying mentally prepared has been key for the 34-year-old in his second year with Orlando, and he spoke about what’s changed for him after not quite reaching expectations in his first year.
“Coming to a league like this isn’t easy. A lot of times from the outside, you aren’t able to measure up or really see what the league is. Sometimes you can underestimate things, thinking it’s easy,” Muriel said. “That leads you to take things on in a different way, the work, the matches.
“When you go into ‘MLS Mode’ you realize how good the league is, how competitive it is, how demanding the league is to be able to do things well. That’s when things start to flow, to go well. I think that’s the difference between this year and last.”
He’s finding his footing in the league now and was a force to be reckoned with against Charlotte on Wednesday. Muriel is aware that the Lions will need him to be at his best when they travel to take on Inter Miami on Sunday for an important rivalry clash.
Diving Into Justin Ellis’s Ascent
Victor Olorunfemi of Top Drawer Soccer gave a great profile on Orlando City B forward Justin Ellis and his growth with the club. Ellis, who just celebrated his 18th birthday on Wednesday with his MLS debut, is having a great year after a solid season with OCB last year. The high school senior was the top scorer at this year’s Generation Adidas Cup with six goals to help Orlando’s U-18 team win the tournament. He can create chances just as well as he can convert them and is quick to give credit to the coaches and staff that have helped him develop. The U.S. youth pool is deep, but Ellis could be a name to keep an eye out for ahead of the U-20 World Cup in September.
Orlando Pride Match Headlines NWSL Weekend
The Orlando Pride’s match tonight against the Kansas City Current is the premier matchup this week in the NWSL. While I wouldn’t call it a rivalry just yet, these two teams had great games last year. The Current are still out for revenge after Orlando beat them while shorthanded last summer and won again in the NWSL playoffs in Orlando before winning the NWSL Championship in Kansas City. First place in the league is on the line and it should be a thrilling match featuring the league’s top two defenses and attacking threats like Barbra Banda, Temwa Chawinga, Marta, and Debinha.
NWSL Contenders and Underperformers
We’re about a third of the way into the NWSL season and ESPN‘s Jeff Kassouf dove into how each team is meeting its expectations so far. Despite their stumbles in recent weeks, the Pride are near the top of the table and have plenty of time to get things firing on all cylinders. Two of the California teams are enjoying surprising success so far, with the San Diego Wave up in fourth while Angel City FC is in fifth and could become a real contender once Alexander Straus takes over as head coach. NJ/NY Gotham FC and the North Carolina Courage are sleeping giants of sorts, so it will be interesting to see when they start climbing up the table.
Free Kicks
- You’ll need a paid subscription for the full details, but Orlando City right back Alex Freeman continues to impress this season. Freeman is finding success in a way different from his father Antonio Freeman, who led the NFL in receiving yards for the Green Bay Packers in 1998.
- This year’s MLS pre-match jerseys to celebrate Pride month are out and they’re a vibrant and funky design.
- Esther Gonzalez leads the NWSL with seven goals this season and has agreed to a contract extension with Gotham FC that will last through 2027.
- FIFA representatives, including FA Chair Debbie Hewitt and UEFA President Alexander Ceferin, walked out of FIFA’s annual congress in protest of FIFA President Gianni Infantino arriving three hours late. Infantino has spent this week in the Middle East visiting leaders in Saudi Arabia and Qatar with Donald Trump.
- FC Barcelona officially won this year’s La Liga title after a 2-0 win over Espanyol. Phenom Lamine Yamal scored a sensational goal in the match, which is fitting considering how crucial he was to Barcelona winning the league this year.
- Predictable names like Luis Enrique and Antonio Conte are on the list of top European coaches this year, but this article also shines a light on coaches who navigated tough waters in small boats. Alexander Blessin has St. Pauli on the verge of survival in the Bundesliga and Filippo Inzaghi improved Pisa by 30 points in Serie B to secure promotion.
That’s all I have for you this time around. I hope you all have a fantastic Friday and rest of your weekend!
Orlando City
Orlando City vs. Inter Miami: Three Keys to Victory
What do the Lions need to do to secure a victory in Sunday’s edition of Tropic Thunder?

The first Tropic Thunder match of the season is here. As I recently said on The Mane Land PawedCast, I am both looking forward to and dreading this match. I think that is an appropriate feeling. Orlando City is in the midst of a congested May schedule, but every match matters.
Inter Miami tops my list of hated teams at this point. As such, I very much want the Lions to win and for Florida to be purple. What does Orlando City need to do to earn all three points on the road against their in-state rivals?
Pocket Messi
Orlando City must keep Lionel Messi from having too big of an impact on the match. There are plenty of other players that the defense will need to worry about, and I’ll get to them. What I’m looking for is a frustrated Messi — Messi that feels he should be getting calls on the lightest of touches but is not.
The pair of players that I’m expecting to keep an eye on Messi are Cesar Araujo and Rodrigo Schlegel. The lion’s share of that burden will fall to Araujo. I want him to be hounding Messi every time he gets the ball. If Messi is able to get past Araujo, I want Schlegel to be right in his face. We’re all sick of MLS and Apple TV putting his smug mug in our faces at every opportunity. It’s time for two of Orlando’s defenders to take the shine off of Messi.
Deal with the Rest
Assuming Araujo can limit Messi, Orlando City still has to deal with Miami’s talented attacking players not named Messi. Miami and Orlando entered Wednesday night’s game with the same number of goals scored (21) and allowed (15) this season, although the Herons conceded more at San Jose (3) than the Lions (1) did at home against Charlotte. Each scored three times on Wednesday. However, the memory of the last time the Lions faced Miami at Chase Stadium in Ft. Lauderdale is a 5-0 loss. That isn’t something we want to see again.
Theoretically, no match is more important than another, although an argument could be made that Tropic Thunder is no mere match. I fully expect a starting back line of Alex Freeman, Schlegel, Robin Jansson, and David Brekalo in front of Pedro Gallese to stop Miami’s attack. A clean sheet is the objective.
Alex vs. Alba
As you can tell, this is a very defensive heavy Three Keys, but given what happened in this fixture last year, I don’t think it’s out of line. Alex Freeman has been good this season. He has secured the starting spot at right back and seems unlikely to give it back. One of the things he is good at is getting into the attack with Marco Pasalic. That isn’t what I’m looking for from him this weekend.
Miami’s Jordi Alba is a dangerous player that Freeman will be expected to help contain. Alba has five assists, seven successful crosses, and 13 key passes so far this season. If Freeman is still getting up the pitch to assist in the attack, he will need to make sure he isn’t allowing Alba free rein to get behind him and serve as a provider in Orlando’s half of the field.
That is what I will be looking for Sunday night. Let me know your thoughts in the comments below. Vamos Orlando!
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