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Orlando City

Orlando City’s Hot and Cold Streaks Tell the Story of the 2024 Season

An evaluation of scoring trends this season, with a focus on Orlando City’s recent hot and cold streaks.

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5 months ago

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

There is a story — maybe real, maybe apocryphal — of a college statistics professor who asked his students to go home and flip a coin 100 times, and then then to write down on each flip whether it was heads (H) or tails (T). He would then walk around the classroom during the next class and would correctly call out whether a student had actually done the exercise or they had made up the results, just by looking at their Hs and Ts.

His reasoning was that while over the long haul the ratio of heads to tails will be approximately 50:50, in small samples it does not work like that. Those who made up their homework would not put a run of 5,6, 7 or more heads in a row, for example, but those who actually flipped would see the occasional long run.

A similar idea is shown on the recent numbers board above roulette wheels in every casino, where it’s often jarring to see many red or black numbers on display consecutively because the mind is trained to assume that it should be even between the colors since there are 18 red numbers and 18 black numbers on the wheel. I may have played a lot of roulette in my life. We need not go into more detail.

Is there going to be a point to this? Yes. Coins, roulette wheels, rock/paper/scissors, they all generally fall out to similar ratios overall, but in short numbers, they are streaky. Athletes and teams are no different, it happens to them as well.

Baseball is the sport most associated with statistics, and in particular people talk most frequently about a batting average, which is calculated by the number of hits divided by the number of at bats. Three hits out of 10 at bats is a .300 batting average, but hitters who bat around that number rarely get three hits out of every ten at bats if you look at a list of 10 at bat chunks during a season. I could really torture this with examples, but you came here to read about soccer. My point is that players and teams run hot and cold far more often than data would indicate when you are looking at aggregated stats, and Orlando City is no exception.

Thus far this season, Orlando City has had two streaks of three losses and one draw in four matches, and also one streak of four straight wins in four matches. Ramiro Enrique scored a goal in six straight matches, and Pedro Gallese and the defense went a little more than 2.5 straight games without giving up a goal. The offense scored five goals in five MLS games during March and then 14 goals in five MLS games during July. It is not quite to the level of Will Ferrell in Old School, but there has definitely been some streaking going on during the 2024 Orlando City season.

Enrique’s streak was particularly hard to fathom, because according to fbref.com’s tracking prior to the initial goal against D.C. United that started his streak, his career average in games for Banfield of Argentina and Orlando City had been 0.24 goals per 90 minutes, and then all of a sudden he accelerated to 1.34 goals per 90 minutes during his six-match run. Subsequent to that, he has now gone consecutive games without a goal, which feels like a major letdown, when in fact, if you look across his career, it is actually not that surprising. Including his recent run of form, Enrique is now right around 0.33 goals per 90 minutes for his career, or about one goal per every three games…exactly what he has produced in his last three matches.

Was the streak a new normal? Probably not. Were the last two scoreless games a new normal? Probably not, but such is the nature of a streak. On the whole, it washes out in the numbers, but in the moment it felt amazing as a fan in July and felt particularly vexing as a fan more recently. How dare Enrique not continue to score like Messi in his prime for more than six matches!

On a broader scale, as I mentioned earlier, Orlando City as a team was scorching hot in July, scoring 14 goals in five MLS matches and 18 goals in all competitions (six matches), for a nice tidy three-goals-per-game average during the full month. This has been followed by a freezing cold (thus far) August, and looking at the data around the Lions’ performance provides a great view of the statistical concept of regression to the mean.

The averages through the first 24 matches (Concacaf Champions Cup and MLS) of the season are in the first row below. Then there was a big improvement during July (MLS and Leagues Cup), the second row. Finally, August (MLS and Leagues Cup), the third row, has been well below the initial averages, meaning that the full season averages in the fourth row are basically the same as they were in the first row, despite an outstanding July and a thus far not-so-outstanding August. (Note: own goals are not included in the data):

There are always many factors than can lead to success or struggle on the field, but over the long haul of a season, all teams have highs and lows, and the target is really to minimize the lows and to build toward having the highs towards the end of the season, when the playoffs start. This was certainly the case for the 2023 Orlando City team, which went 11-2-2 during its final 15 matches of the MLS regular season after going 7-7-5 during the first 19 matches.

With eight matches remaining in the season, the 2024 version of Orlando City could still come close to that 2023 team’s season-ending run of form, as even with the loss last week the Lions are still 4-1-2 in their last seven matches and one of only three Eastern Conference teams with 10 or more points in their last five matches. Losing at Sporting Kansas City hurt, as that was a winnable game against a bottom-of-the-table team, but the Lions can get back on the right foot (yes, even you, Facundo Torres, can get on the right foot) at home on Saturday against Nashville. When your opponent comes into the match having lost its last seven games in a row in MLS play by a combined score of 18-3, that is a game you need to win, especially when you are playing at home and coming off a frustrating loss.

To do so the Lions will need to blow up the idea that their July form was just a hot streak that will be immediately offset by an August cold streak, netting them out in the middle. The 2023 season is a blueprint follow to avoid regression to the mean and to find sustained success. And with three straight home games coming up, we will quickly see whether the game in Kansas City was an aberration, or another flashing indicator that this season will continue to be one of hot and cold streaks.

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Lion Links

Lion Links: 1/23/25

Orlando City signs Thomas Williams to new contract, Orlando Pride schedule revealed, USMNT wins against Costa Rica, and more.

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4 hours ago

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January 23, 2025

By

Image courtesy of Orlando Pride / Jeremy Reper

I hope you all are staying warm as we deal with cold weather across Florida. It’s at least been nice to break out some of my heavier blankets and forgotten hot cocoa packets I’ve had stored away. My cat has also been curling up next to me more, which is always a plus. Still, not shivering while waiting for my car to warm up would be great. Let’s dive into today’s links!

Thomas Williams Signs New Orlando City Contract

Orlando City center back Thomas Williams signed a new contract with the club that lasts through 2026, with an option for 2027 as well. Williams joined the club’s academy back in 2015 and became the youngest Homegrown Player in club history when he signed a first-team contract at 16 years old in 2021. The 20-year-old hasn’t featured much for the first team, and he’ll likely spend most of this year with Orlando City B for consistent playing time. Hopefully Williams can take a step forward in his development and provide the Lions some helpful depth at center back in the event of injuries.

Orlando Pride 2025 Season Schedule Unveiled

The NWSL announced its 2025 season schedule Wednesday, and the Orlando Pride will start their title defense season at home against the Chicago Red Stars on March 14. Their first road game will be the following weekend on March 23 against NJ/NY Gotham FC. Decision Day returns to the schedule this year, with all 14 clubs in action on Nov. 2. The Pride will close out their regular season at home that day against the Seattle Reign, with the postseason set to begin on Nov. 7. There’s also a break in the schedule in July, with no regular-season games scheduled due to international tournaments like the Women’s Africa Cup of Nations and Copa America Femenina.

USMNT Shuts Out Costa Rica in Orlando

The United States Men’s National Team beat Costa Rica 3-0 at Inter&Co Stadium in Orlando Wednesday night to stay perfect at the home of the Lions and Pride at 7-0-0. Goalkeeper Zack Steffen truly earned his clean sheet, coming up with some great saves to deny Costa Rica. It was also a solid attacking performance from the Yanks, and Patrick Agyemang put a bow on what’s been a great month for him with his second goal in as many games. Head Coach Mauricio Pochettino has some time to assess things before the USMNT plays Panama in the Concacaf Nations League semifinals on March 20

Keeping Up With MLS Transfer News

San Diego FC added another Designated Player ahead of its inaugural season, signing Danish winger Anders Dreyer from Anderlecht for a transfer fee reportedly near $5 million. He recorded 31 goals and 23 assists in 87 appearances across all competitions for Anderlecht and joins San Diego on a three-year deal. Charlotte FC officially added Wilfried Zaha on loan from Galatasaray. He’ll occupy a DP spot and the loan lasts through Jan. 16, 2026, with an option to extend it through June of that year as well.

LAFC made a trade with its rival to strengthen its midfield, acquiring Mark Delgado from the LA Galaxy in exchange for $400,000 in General Allocation Money. The Portland Timbers signed Venezuelan forward Kevin Kelsy from Shakhtar Donetsk as an MLS U22 Initiative player, with FC Cincinnati receiving GAM for his discovery rights. Real Salt Lake, which signed Mason Stajduhar from Orlando City earlier this month, continued to make changes to its goalkeeping group. The club signed veteran goalkeeper Rafael Cabral as a free agent and transferred 19-year-old American Gavin Beavers to Brondby IF in Denmark.

UEFA Champions League Roundup

The penultimate round of the UEFA Champions League’s league phase wrapped up this week. Paris Saint-Germain beat Manchester City 4-2 in the heavyweight matchup of the round, with all six goals coming in the second half. Joao Neves gave PSG the lead in the 78th minute before Goncalo Ramos put the game on ice in stoppage time. City now needs to win its final game against Club Brugge on Wednesday in order to advance.

Real Madrid cruised to a 5-1 win against RB Salzburg to advance, with both Rodrygo and Vinicius Jr. scoring braces. Celtic also booked its spot in the next round after a 1-0 win against Young Boys. Feyenoord pulled off an upset by winning 3-0 against Bayern Munich as well. Elsewhere in the tournament, AC Milan won 1-0 at home against Girona, Arsenal beat Dinamo Zagreb 3-0, and RB Leipzig did well in a 2-1 victory over Sporting CP.

Free Kicks

  • American goalkeeper Michelle Betos announced her retirement from professional soccer after a career that included winning the 2016 NWSL Shield with the Portland Thorns and the 2023 NWSL Championship with Gotham. Betos was also named NWSL Goalkeeper of the Year with the Thorns in 2015.
  • Arsenal and Chelsea are among the multiple clubs reportedly keeping an eye on American forward Trinity Rodman, whose contract with the Washington Spirit ends after this year.
https://twitter.com/tombogert/status/1882171400481542482

That’s all I have for you today. I hope you all have a great Thursday and rest of your week!

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Orlando City

Orlando City Signs Defender Thomas Williams Through 2026

Orlando City signs Homegrown center back Thomas Williams to a new contract through 2026 with a club option for 2027.

Published

1 day ago

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January 22, 2025

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Image courtesy of Orlando City B / Mark Thor

Orlando City announced this morning that the club has signed defender Thomas Williams through the 2026 season with a club option for 2027. The Homegrown Player has been with the first team since 2021 and will continue for at least two more years.

“Thomas is someone whose future we’re still very excited about and we’re happy to get him locked in with us for a couple more years,” Executive Vice President of Soccer Operations and General Manager Luiz Muzzi said in a club press release. “He’s shown a lot of growth these last few seasons, continuing to get game action with Orlando City B and proving the importance of our development pathway, and we’re looking forward to having him with us for the foreseeable future.”

The Titusville native joined the Orlando City Academy in 2015 and made his professional debut for the club on Aug. 7, 2020 against New England Revolution II. He played in 13 games that year with 10 starts and recorded 844 minutes. His play on the Young Lions’ back line earned him a first-team contract on June 15, 2021, at just 16 years old, making him the youngest player in club history to sign a Homegrown contract.

The 20-year-old center back made his MLS debut on April 16, 2022 in a 2-0 win over the Columbus Crew in Ohio. He made five appearances with three starts in all competitions that season, recording 271 minutes. To date, those are the only appearances he’s made with the first team.

Since joining OCB in 2021, Williams has made 69 appearances with 61 starts and recorded 5,132 minutes. He’s been booked 19 times and sent off twice, both times after receiving second yellow cards.

What It Means for Orlando City

Williams is the fourth natural center back for Orlando City on the current squad behind Robin Jansson, David Brekalo, and Rodrigo Schlegel. He played well early in his OCB and MLS career, but has struggled recently. Last year, he played exclusively with the second team, partnering with Nabi Kibunguchy.

While Williams hasn’t made much of an impact on the first team so far, he’s only 20 years old and still has plenty of time to develop. Extending his contact shows that the club still has faith that he can turn into a key player for the MLS side.

It’s unlikely that Williams will see any time with the first team in 2025 (barring injuries and/or suspensions), considering that he’s also been behind versatile defender Kyle Smith at the center back position. He’ll likely spend the upcoming season with OCB, continuing to develop and earn his spot with the first team. As a Homegrown Player, there isn’t much risk in signing Williams to a new contract, especially if the club’s technical staff thinks he can develop into a quality defender.

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Lion Links

Lion Links: 1/22/25

Orlando City transfer rumors, Orlando Pride preseason begins, USMNT at Inter&Co, and more.

Published

1 day ago

on

January 22, 2025

By

Dan MacDonald, The ManeLand

Welcome to Wednesday, Mane Landers. Up here in Tallahassee, I’m waking up to snow/sleet, closed schools, closed government offices, and potentially icy roads. Many people will get an extra day off of work, however, I still get to go to work. I’m sure you can imagine how happy I am about that. Enough of my winter grumbling. Let’s get to the links but not until after we wish Orlando City fullback Michael Halliday a happy 22nd birthday.

Orlando City Reportedly Targeting Croatian International

While I can no longer say that Orlando City hasn’t signed any new players, the club is still moving at its traditionally slow speed as compared to other MLS clubs. We had the signing of Nicolas Rodriguez last week. Now, we have Tom Bogert report of yet another winger prospect for the club in Croatian Marco Pasalic from HNK Rijeka, though it is not a done deal. Hopefully the other targets Bogert mentions are of the striker variety.

https://twitter.com/tombogert/status/1881755961125449765?s=46&t=pMoq7Wulqfb35D7C8ydroA

Pride Preseason Begins

The 2024 NWSL champions are back to defend their title. The Orlando Pride returned to training on Tuesday. The club hasn’t needed to add many pieces, though some of the players already here, like Simone Charley and Grace Chanda, haven’t actually played any minutes for the Pride yet. Most of the chemistry is in place for Seb Hines, but reinforcing those bonds will be the challenge as the Pride look to repeat.

USMNT at Inter&Co Tonight

Hopefully you have tickets to the USMNT friendly match versus Costa Rica at Inter&Co Stadium tonight. The match starts at 7 p.m. and there are television and streaming options if you’re not going in person. Despite the squad having 14 players with three or fewer caps, Mauricio Pochettino does not consider this an “alternative” squad, nor does he want the players to think of themselves like that.

Girma Reportedly Nearing Completion of Chelsea Move

USWNT defender Naomi Girma is reportedly headed to Chelsea FC Women for a record $1.1 million transfer fee. That is a very big chunk of change for San Diego FC to use to try to replace one of the best defenders in the world. The deal is not complete as of Tuesday evening, but according to the original report from The Athletic, it is close to being done. Girma would be the first women’s soccer player to earn a transfer fee of over $1 million.

MLS Transfer Updates

Other MLS clubs keep on putting pen to paper when it comes to new players. The Chicago Fire are bringing in Jonathan Bamba on a Designated Player deal from La Liga side Celta de Vigo. The Luca de la Torre loan from Spain’s RC Celta de Vigo to San Diego FC is also official.

https://twitter.com/sandiegofc/status/1881741042904350864

Cucho Hernandez evidently wants to stay with the Columbus Crew, though he is still waiting on a new offer.

https://twitter.com/tombogert/status/1881786193693823104

Free Kicks

https://twitter.com/weareangelcity/status/1881749040863588770?s=12&t=_WZBNG4ILAyRLdwBeB4mpQ
  • Keep your eyes peeled later today for the NWSL schedule drop.
https://twitter.com/nwsl/status/1881749035218042954?s=46&t=pN-YJp3s7ZQlCXqnTAgSfw

That will do it for today. Stay warm out there, my friends. Vamos Orlando!

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