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Predictions for Orlando City’s Remaining Games of the 2024 Season

A deep dive into Orlando City’s final seven opponents and predictions on the Lions will do in those matchups.

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

We do not often write about National Football League Commissioner Roger Goodell at The Mane Land, but it is clear that the NFL was intentional about scheduling its season-opening weekend on a bye weekend for Orlando City, lest they lose all of their viewers to watching the team that you know and I know is the most exciting team to watch in all of sports. Fittingly for the city of Orlando, that excitement has been similar to a roller coaster this season, with ups and downs throughout, but with positive results in eight of the last 10 matches and wins in six of those matches, the team is clearly now heading in the right direction. The question remains whether the Lions will continue this climb or if they are just leading up to a sudden drop.

The Lions have seven games remaining on their regular-reason schedule, and at a quick glance it would appear like they have an excellent chance of continuing their hot streak and picking up points in more than half of those games. The next games in order are:

  • Home vs. New England (1.04 points/game this season, 23rd in MLS)
  • Home vs. Charlotte (1.41, 14th)
  • At Columbus (1.96, second)
  • At Dallas (1.22, 18th)
  • Home vs. Philadelphia (1.11, 21st)
  • At Cincinnati (1.89, fourth)
  • Home vs. Atlanta (1.15, 20th)

As Orlando City is currently on a pace of 1.37 points per game, which is 15th in MLS, the Lions are playing four teams with lower points per game this season, one that is nearly the same, and two that have been performing better thus far this season.

In looking a little deeper at the seven remaining opponents, however, that schedule actually starts to look a little more difficult. If you look at the results from the most recent five matches instead of the season as a whole, Orlando City is playing four teams (Columbus, Dallas, Philadelphia, Atlanta) that are performing better recently than they had been for all games prior to their most recent five games. Two of those teams (Columbus and Dallas) are tied with Orlando City for second in MLS, with 10 points from their last five games. Unfortunately for Orlando City, both of those games against Columbus and Dallas will be on the road, but then again, Orlando’s road record of 6-3-5 (1.50 points/game) is better than its home record of 4-4-5 (1.23 points/game), so perhaps that is actually fortunate.

In looking even deeper, well, this chart will help show how all over the place Orlando City’s opponents really are when you look at their full season performance and also their more recent performance. (PPG = points per game and GDG = goal differential per game, which I needed to use instead of just plain goal differential, since the teams have not all played the same amount of games.)

New England’s -0.84 under Full Season GDG means that for the full season the Revolution have been losing games by an average of 0.84 goals per game.

A few takeaways from this chart:

  • I mentioned earlier that four teams are getting better results recently than they had been before the most recent five matches, but Dallas and Philadelphia are both playing significantly better than they had before, while Atlanta and Columbus are only playing slightly better than they had before.
  • That said, Columbus was playing really well and is still playing really well, so that lack of improvement is relative, since the Crew did not have a lot of room to improve and yet they still did.
  • Cincinnati is a stunning case, since the club had only lost four of its first 22 matches before losing four of its next five. And in those four losses, Cincinnati was outscored 9-2, leading to that big drop in GDG. Even with that swoon, Cincinnati is still ranked fourth overall in MLS and third in the Eastern Conference in points per game.
  • Lastly, the section on the far right shows how each team has performed at home or on the road this season. The Match Location is for Orlando City, and the Opponent PPG shows, for example, that Philadelphia averages 1.31 points on the road this season. Orlando City has a better location-based PPG than its opponent in only three (New England, Charlotte, Atlanta) of the final seven games.

During each of the last three seasons, Orlando City earned at least 48 points during the regular season, and to make it four years in a row, the Lions will need to pick up at least 11 points from these final seven games. Here are the possible points the Lions can still earn, based on the number of wins they could have in those seven games:

Just looking at the math, it is possible that they could get to 11 points with only two wins, but that would require no losses in the other five games, and I think that is asking a lot for a team that has lost 37% of its games thus far this season. I think the most likely way that Orlando City gets to at least 11 points is three wins and two draws or four wins and any number of draws, so we need to rank the final seven opponents based on the likelihood of an Orlando City win.

Before we do that, however, we should note that Orlando City’s only MLS loss in its last seven MLS matches was at Sporting Kansas City, a team that is among the hottest in MLS, with results in four of its last five matches. Even though SKC lost, it played some close matches with several of the top teams in the league (LA Galaxy, Real Salt Lake, Colorado, Vancouver) before that. Perhaps Orlando City’s loss away in Kansas City was not as bad as it seemed at the time.

No, that loss still stunk.

Coming back to our ranking, I got out my mathematics degree, shined it up, blew it a kiss, and then put together a very fancy (read: very simple) algorithm using standard deviations to determine the order of most to least likely for Orlando City to get a win, with a formula that went:

That formula produced the list below, ranked in order of the upcoming schedule, accompanied by the team’s rank in order of likelihood of Orlando City getting a win (higher numbers mean Orlando City is more likely to win):

Whether this algorithm is correct or not, there is no doubt that the next two games for Orlando City are absolutely critical in both the made-up pursuit of a fourth straight season of at least 48 points and the more important push to secure a playoff berth and the opportunity to win MLS Cup. The next game (New England) is always the most important game, and after that, Orlando City could have an opportunity to pass Charlotte and move up the table, depending on how the Lions do against New England and how Charlotte does in its Sept. 14 match against CF Montréal. Both matches are at home, and despite their poor overall home record the Lions have three wins and one draw in their last four home MLS games. It would be quite nice to extend that to five wins in their last six before going on the road to Columbus.

I am going to predict that Orlando City does indeed win against New England and Charlotte, loses on the road at Columbus, ties at Dallas, ties Philadelphia, loses at Cincinnati, and closes with a home win over Atlanta for a final record of 3-2-2 during those last seven matches. The mathematically inclined will quickly recognize that a 3-2-2 record adds up to the 11 points the Lions needed to get to 48 points, but leaves them short of getting to 50 for the third time in the last four years. They would secure a playoff position, but they would also be on the road for the first game, and a third game as well if the series goes to three games.

While the team has definitely been playing a lot better as of late, I think this last seven-match run is a difficult one and the Lions will have to really push to do even as well as I predicted, which is only earning 11 of a possible 21 points. They have it in them to make a run. Let’s hope they come back from this bye week ready to roar and rub my prediction right in my face.

Lion Links

Lion Links: 4/2/25

Orlando Pride players on International duty, NWSL power rankings, USWNT friendlies, and more.

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Image courtesy of Orlando Pride / Mark Thor

Welcome to Wednesday, Mane Landers. There is plenty of Orlando Pride news today, which is good considering we’re heading into an international break. That means we can look forward to some women’s international matches in addition to Orlando City’s next bout against the Philadelphia Union. Before we jump into today’s news, please join us in wishing Orlando City midfielder Cesar Araujo a happy 24th birthday. Let’s get to the links.

International Duty, Pride Edition

Four players from the Orlando Pride have been called up for international duty. Anna Moorhouse (England), Angelina (Brazil), Emily Sams (U.S.), and Zara Chavoshi (U.S. U-23 training camp) will all head to their respective national teams. Moorhouse’s England will compete in the UEFA Women’s Nations League, while Angelina and Sams will face off in a pair of friendlies between the USWNT and the Brazil Women’s National Team.

Pride Still on Top

It seems that there are more outlets providing NWSL power rankings every week, but as long as they keep the Pride on top, I’ll keep letting you know about it. Given that the Pride are undefeated, with the most goals scored and the best goal differential, it isn’t surprising that the club is sitting atop the official standings along with these “highly scientific” power rankings. Goal.com, Sports Illustrated, and All For IX all rank the Pride in first place just above the Kansas City Current. I suppose even power rankings are occasionally correct.

Orlando’s Various World Cup Ties

You probably know that Orlando wasn’t selected to be one of the host cities for the 2026 FIFA World Cup. As disappointing as that was, there’s still a chance that the city, and Orlando City SC’s training grounds at Osceola Heritage Park will host team training during the event. The top notch facilities, plus the relatively close proximity to host cities Miami and Atlanta, make Orlando a good option.

On a more positive note, Orlando was chosen as a host city for the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup. Camping World Stadium will see Club León vs. CR Flamengo, and Juventus vs. Manchester City. The Group H runner-up vs. Group G winner match and one of the quarterfinal round matches will also be in Orlando. There’s plenty to see and do in the City Beautiful, including some great soccer.

USWNT Youth Movement

Sams won’t be the only younger player in Emma Hayes’ lineup for the friendlies against Brazil. Hayes wants to deepen the player pool, which means bringing in players with an average age of just over 25 years old, and the average number of appearances is less than 35. Hayes also believes this is a chance for the younger players who appeared in the loss to Japan in the SheBelieves Cup. The first of the two matches is this Saturday at 5 p.m., with the second coming up Tuesday at 10:30 p.m.

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That will do it for today. Check back as we get you ready for the Orlando City and OCB matches this weekend. Hopefully, you have two screens since the match start times overlap. Vamos Orlando!

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Lion Links

Lion Links: 4/1/25

Barbra Banda’s continued importance, Americans in midweek action, USWNT announces friendly, and more.

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Image courtesy of Orlando Pride / Jeremy Reper

Good morning everyone! It was a great weekend for Orlando’s soccer teams as Orlando City and the Orlando Pride both won, meaning that we got treated to a six-point weekend (OCB was off). As always we have plenty to talk through this morning, so let’s get into today’s links.

Barbra Banda Keeps Rolling in 2025

After a wildly successful debut season with the Orlando Pride in 2024, Barbra Banda has showed no signs of slowing down this year. A brace in the season opener meant that she picked up right where she left off last year, and the team has continued to be successful too. The Pride have made it three wins from three to start the 2025 season, and while Banda hasn’t scored since the opener, her blend of pace, power, dribbling, passing, and movement have continuously helped open things up for her teammates, and she drew a penalty that led to the Pride’s game-winning goal Saturday. She isn’t the Pride’s only offensive weapon, but the team clicks into a different gear when she’s at her best.

Americans in Midweek Action

There are a number of Americans who will be playing in games during the working week, and there are some very important clashes on hand. Things get going later today when Antonee Robinson and Fulham visit Arsenal in Premier League play as the Cottagers are in hot pursuit of a coveted European place. Wednesday has Chris Richards, Matt Turner and Crystal Palace facing Southampton, while Tyler Adams and Bournemouth take on Manchester City. Also on Wednesday, Christian Pulisic, Yunus Musah, and AC Milan will face Inter Milan in a Coppa Italia semifinal. Things finish up on Friday as Aidan Morris and Middlesborough travel to Blackburn Rovers in the EFL Championship.

USWNT Announces Canada Match

The United States Women’s National Team has announced another friendly taking place this summer, as the team will face Canada on July 2 in Washington, D.C. The match will be the third that the USWNT will play during the window, following a pair of friendlies against Ireland in late June. The neighboring countries will meet at Audi Field with the match designated as the Allstate Continental Clasico, with this being the first time that the match will feature the USWNT. The U.S. faced Canada twice in 2024, with both matches ending in 2-2 draws and the USWNT emerging victorious in shootouts.

Concacaf Champions Cup Preview

The Concacaf Champions Cup returns this week, with the first legs of the four quarterfinal matches set to be played today and tomorrow. Things get started tonight with what should be an exciting match between Club America and Cruz Azul, with the crosstown rivals two of the winningest teams in the competition. Cruz Azul’s Angel Sepulveda leads the CCC’s golden boot race with four tallies. The late game sees the LA Galaxy taking on Tigres as the Galaxy will try to distract themselves from a difficult start to their MLS Cup title defense. Wednesday’s slate has the Vancouver Whitecaps taking on Pumas UNAM in Canada in what will be the second-ever meeting between the two teams. The late game will be an all-MLS affair as LAFC hosts Inter Miami in the first meeting between the two sides in CCC play.

Sporting Kansas City Fires Peter Vermes

The longest-tenured coach in Major League Soccer is out of work, as Sporting Kansas City announced the firing of Peter Vermes on Monday morning. It’s an end of an era in Kansas City, as Vermes was the head coach since 2009, back when the team was still called the Kansas City Wizards, and he had been named the club’s technical director three years earlier in 2006. He guided the team to an MLS Cup win in 2013; claimed U.S. Open Cup titles in 2012, 2015, and 2017; and helped the team be consistently competitive for a majority of his tenure. Despite all of that, SKC missed the playoffs in two of the last three seasons and was mired in the midst of a 13-game winless streak in all competitions that stretched back to Sept. 18 of last year. After being an assistant on Vermes’ staff, Kerry Zavagnin will take over as interim head coach.

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That’s all I have for this morning. Vamos Orlando!

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Orlando City

Orlando City vs. LA Galaxy: Player Grades and Man of the Match

How did your favorite Lions perform in Orlando City’s 2-1 victory over the LA Galaxy?

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

Orlando City capped off its March slate of matches with a cross-country bout against the 2024 MLS Cup champions, the LA Galaxy. In what was the longest commute that the Lions will register in the 2025 season, Orlando looked out of sync for much of the match, especially when contrasted with the squad that stomped D.C. United at home last week. Miraculously for the fans that stayed up past their bedtimes back on the East Coast, the Lions shocked the reigning champions and stole all three points with a come-from-behind 2-1 victory over the final quarter hour of the match.

Let’s look at the Lions’ individual performances to see who made the grade and who can improve as the calendar turns to April.

Starters

GK, Pedro Gallese, 6.5 — Gallese returned for Orlando after missing time while representing Peru during World Cup qualifiers. For the most part, he did well against the pressure of an agressive attack from the Galaxy. In the end, he was credited with just one save, which was a massive righthanded block of a shot by Gabriel Pec that could have put the game away for the home side. It isn’t worth entertaining a discussion about Gallese “letting another one in,” as the goal that the Galaxy scored was off a point-blank redirection back against his momentum, and it should have at the bare minimum warranted a second look for a potential offside ruling. His distribution was mostly solid, and he had an 81.8% passing rate on his 11 attempts while completing three of his five long balls. He was booked in the waining moments of the match for time wasting — although it was Rodrigo Schlegel who kicked the ball away without being spotted, and Gallese was merely retrieving it.

D, Rafael Santos, 5.5 — Santos had a few bright moments throughout the match, with an emphasis on the word few. I did think that he was better at getting into the attack and sent several balls across the net that had the potential to be dangerous. On the defensive end, there were just too many mistakes for my liking, whether that be careless turnovers, poor positioning, or falling asleep on the back side of the play. He and Ivan Angulo were both at fault on LA’s goal, as neither picked up Miki Yamane’s run. Santos was also overpowered twice by Pec. The Brazilian touched the ball 48 times, provided two key passes, one successful cross (on five attempts), and a passing rate of 76.9%. Defensively, he provided two tackles and three clearances. Offensively, Santos recorded a shot that was not on target. The left back currently benefits from a lack of depth pushing him for his starting minutes but will need to improve if Orlando is to continue its winning ways. He was replaced by David Brekalo in the 66th minute.

D, Rodrigo Schlegel, 7 — Schlegel had a productive and technically sound evening for the Lions. Defensively, he contributed one interception, a team-high seven clearances, and two blocked shots. He passed at a 93.6% rate, while touching the ball a team-high 88 times, and completed five long balls (on eight attempts). He didn’t register an offensive statistic during the match, but he played well and I thought that he had solid positioning throughout the night when the Galaxy sent balls into the box.

D, Robin Jansson, 6 — Something just seems off right now with Jansson, as the output from the captain simply feels less than what we have come to expect. Nonetheless, Jansson went the full 90 and recorded 65 touches. He completed 94.8% of his passes which included a team-best seven accurate long balls on nine attempts. Defensively, he contributed one tackle, one interception, and three clearances. Christian Ramirez beat Jansson on the lone goal for the Galaxy.

D, Alex Freeman, 6.5 — Freeman continues to put in the work for Orlando City. While his first West Coast trip was not fruitful in terms of goal-scoring contributions, the young Lion still managed to affect the game in a myriad of ways. He recorded 69 touches and completed 93.3% of his passes, which included two key passes and one accurate cross. Defensively, he added a team-high four tackles and two clearances. Offensively, Freeman tied Martin Ojeda for the most shots taken on the night (three) but was only able to put one on target. Freeman continues to showcase a solid motor that is helping to drive the offense, and he has shown strong chemistry with Marco Pasalic as well, but the most impressive aspect of his game against the Galaxy for me was the job he did in space defensively against Joseph Paintsil when the speedster entered the match in the second half.

MF, Cesar Araujo, 6.5 — This felt like a classic Araujo performance and the Uruguayan was seemingly everywhere on the pitch. He logged 63 touches and completed 90% of his passes but was only successful on one of his five long-ball attempts. Defensively, he contirbuted two tackles, one interception, and two clearances. Offensively, Araujo did not record a stat but did suffer a team-high three fouls. Araujo was able to defend without being booked against the Galaxy, and he has shown signficant improvement this season so far in not picking up careless yellow cards.

MF, Eduard Atuesta, 7.5 (MotM) — The former member of LAFC became the catalyst for the late offensive turnaround against what used to be his crosstown rival by earning a penalty in the 77th minute. He recorded 75 touches and completed 89.8% of his passes, which inlcuded two key passes, four accurate long balls on five attempts, and two succesful crosses on two attempts. Offensively, he attempted two shots, one which nearly put Orlando City in the lead when it hit the right post. Defensively, he contributed one tackle and two clearances. Atuesta benefitted from the insertion of Brekalo and Duncan McGuire, pushing forward into the attack, and without his effort, Orlando City likely would not have earned all three points. He was replaced by Joran Gerbet in stoppage time as part of a time-wasting, like-for-like substitution to see out the match.

MF, Ivan Angulo, 5.5 — To put it bluntly, Angulo is not in great form right now. The speedy Colombian is failing to challenge opposing back lines in the attack and has become a liability on the defensive side of the ball. The pairing of Angulo with Santos on the left has become a favorite area for the opposition to attack, and he was partly culpable in letting Yamane sneak in toward the back post on LA’s goal. He recorded 37 touches and completed 90.5% of his passes, which included one key pass. Defensively, he chipped in one tackle and one interception. Offensively, Angulo was dispossessed a team-high four times, as the careless giveaways — often in Orlando’s defensive half — continue to pile up. Orlando clearly needs more from the left wing, who was replaced in the 66th minute by McGuire, with Oscar Pareja pushing Ojeda to the left and playing Luis Muriel as the No. 10.

MF, Martin Ojeda, 7 — Ojeda did not allow another Lion to even remotely consider taking the penalty as he quickly stood over the spot, ball in hand, and then calmly converted the PK to pull Orlando level. Ojeda has now tied his goals total (four) from the 2024 season in only the sixth game of the year. Ojeda touched the ball 56 times and passed at a 90.5% rate while providing one key pass and four accurate long balls out of five attempts. Ojeda could have stood to improve his crossing, as he was only accurate on one of his five attempts. Offensively, Ojeda took three shots (tied with Freeman for the most on the team) but put just one on target (the penalty that he converted). He badly scuffed his first shot and his second was just off target in the first half. Defensively, he didn’t contribute a meaningful statistic, which was surprising, and it kept him just a rung below Atuesta when it came to Man of the Match honors.

MF, Marco Pasalic, 6.5 — Pasalic showcased several individual moments of brillance in the first half when the game was moving quickly end to end. Unfortunately for the Croatian winger, those moments failed to result in a change to the scoreboard. He touched the ball 39 times and completed 81.5% of his passes, including all four of his long balls. Defensively, like Ojeda, Pasalic did not record a meaningful statistic. Despite not scoring against the Galaxy, Pasalic continues to flash his skill with the ball and has been one of the main driving forces behind the strong offensive start to the season. He was replaced by Dagur Dan Thorhallsson in the 82nd minute.

F, Luis Muriel, 7 — Did Muriel score or did John McCarthy botch the play? Both, but who cares? Muriel’s long-distance free kick in the 90th minute found the back of the net, and the placement of the shot contributed to McCarthy’s mistake, as the Colombian sealed the victory and three important road points for Orlando City. A play reminisent of when fellow Designated Player Ojeda hit the equalizer from practically midfield against Charlotte FC back in 2023, Muriel stepped up to a free kick well outside the box and sent a shot towards the top left corner of the net. The goal capped a well-rounded performance for Muriel, who continues to play his best soccer in an Orlando City kit. Muriel finished with 37 touches and completed 88% of his passes, including a key pass. Offensively, he registered two shots with the one that mattered being on target. His other shot was a laser through traffic that barely missed just outside the left post on a set piece. Defensively, the striker contributed a tackle. Kyle Smith replaced him in the third minute of stoppage time.

Substitutes

D, David Brekalo (66’), 7 — I thought Brekalo put in some of his best minutes of the year as he entered in the 66th minute for Santos. It was an unexpected substitution, as Brekalo is a central defender. Regardless, the Slovenian played strong and sound defense, snuffing out multiple attacking runs by Pec. He racked up three tackles and three clearances on defense and put in several eye-opening efforts in the attack as well, as Orlando looked to get back into the match. He completed 90.9% of his passes, and while he did not record a shot, he was quite active around the box and made multiple runs off of his attacking counterparts. Brekalo at left back might be something to keep an eye on, as Pareja has been looking for someone to play consistently well there early in the season. Time will tell.

F, Duncan McGuire (66’), 6.5 — McGuire secured his longest stint since his off-season shoulder surgery and looked agressive over the final moments of the match. He opens up the field in a way Muriel is physically not able to at this point in his career, as the American got in behind the back line multiple times and pulled it out of shape for his teammates to exploit. He recorded three shots, which were all off target, but it is only a matter of time before the forward finds the back of the net. He completed 80% of his five passes and was credited with a key pass.

MF, Dagur Dan Thorhallsson (82′), N/A — Thorhallsson came on in relief of Pasalic and did well over the final moments of the match. The insertion of Brekalo, McGuire, and then Thorhallsson allowed Orlando to be the more dangerous side over the last 20 plus minutes of game time. He completed 83.3% of his passes and was credited with two key passes. Defensively, the product of Iceland added two clearances, and he did well to track back and help Freeman keep Paintsil bottled up.

D, Kyle Smith (93′), N/A — Smith came in following the long-distance goal by Muriel to help see out the victory.

MF, Joran Gerbet (93′), N/A — Like Smith, Gerbet was inserted to help see out the road win in stoppage time but also came into the match for Atuesta who was on a yellow card.


That’s how I saw the individual performances in Orlando City’s come-from-behind win over the Galaxy. Let us know how you saw the game in the comments below, and don’t forget to vote for your Man of the Match.

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