Connect with us

Orlando City

Predictions for Orlando City’s Remaining Games of the 2024 Season

A deep dive into Orlando City’s final seven opponents and predictions on the Lions will do in those matchups.

Published

on

Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

We do not often write about National Football League Commissioner Roger Goodell at The Mane Land, but it is clear that the NFL was intentional about scheduling its season-opening weekend on a bye weekend for Orlando City, lest they lose all of their viewers to watching the team that you know and I know is the most exciting team to watch in all of sports. Fittingly for the city of Orlando, that excitement has been similar to a roller coaster this season, with ups and downs throughout, but with positive results in eight of the last 10 matches and wins in six of those matches, the team is clearly now heading in the right direction. The question remains whether the Lions will continue this climb or if they are just leading up to a sudden drop.

The Lions have seven games remaining on their regular-reason schedule, and at a quick glance it would appear like they have an excellent chance of continuing their hot streak and picking up points in more than half of those games. The next games in order are:

  • Home vs. New England (1.04 points/game this season, 23rd in MLS)
  • Home vs. Charlotte (1.41, 14th)
  • At Columbus (1.96, second)
  • At Dallas (1.22, 18th)
  • Home vs. Philadelphia (1.11, 21st)
  • At Cincinnati (1.89, fourth)
  • Home vs. Atlanta (1.15, 20th)

As Orlando City is currently on a pace of 1.37 points per game, which is 15th in MLS, the Lions are playing four teams with lower points per game this season, one that is nearly the same, and two that have been performing better thus far this season.

In looking a little deeper at the seven remaining opponents, however, that schedule actually starts to look a little more difficult. If you look at the results from the most recent five matches instead of the season as a whole, Orlando City is playing four teams (Columbus, Dallas, Philadelphia, Atlanta) that are performing better recently than they had been for all games prior to their most recent five games. Two of those teams (Columbus and Dallas) are tied with Orlando City for second in MLS, with 10 points from their last five games. Unfortunately for Orlando City, both of those games against Columbus and Dallas will be on the road, but then again, Orlando’s road record of 6-3-5 (1.50 points/game) is better than its home record of 4-4-5 (1.23 points/game), so perhaps that is actually fortunate.

In looking even deeper, well, this chart will help show how all over the place Orlando City’s opponents really are when you look at their full season performance and also their more recent performance. (PPG = points per game and GDG = goal differential per game, which I needed to use instead of just plain goal differential, since the teams have not all played the same amount of games.)

New England’s -0.84 under Full Season GDG means that for the full season the Revolution have been losing games by an average of 0.84 goals per game.

A few takeaways from this chart:

  • I mentioned earlier that four teams are getting better results recently than they had been before the most recent five matches, but Dallas and Philadelphia are both playing significantly better than they had before, while Atlanta and Columbus are only playing slightly better than they had before.
  • That said, Columbus was playing really well and is still playing really well, so that lack of improvement is relative, since the Crew did not have a lot of room to improve and yet they still did.
  • Cincinnati is a stunning case, since the club had only lost four of its first 22 matches before losing four of its next five. And in those four losses, Cincinnati was outscored 9-2, leading to that big drop in GDG. Even with that swoon, Cincinnati is still ranked fourth overall in MLS and third in the Eastern Conference in points per game.
  • Lastly, the section on the far right shows how each team has performed at home or on the road this season. The Match Location is for Orlando City, and the Opponent PPG shows, for example, that Philadelphia averages 1.31 points on the road this season. Orlando City has a better location-based PPG than its opponent in only three (New England, Charlotte, Atlanta) of the final seven games.

During each of the last three seasons, Orlando City earned at least 48 points during the regular season, and to make it four years in a row, the Lions will need to pick up at least 11 points from these final seven games. Here are the possible points the Lions can still earn, based on the number of wins they could have in those seven games:

Just looking at the math, it is possible that they could get to 11 points with only two wins, but that would require no losses in the other five games, and I think that is asking a lot for a team that has lost 37% of its games thus far this season. I think the most likely way that Orlando City gets to at least 11 points is three wins and two draws or four wins and any number of draws, so we need to rank the final seven opponents based on the likelihood of an Orlando City win.

Before we do that, however, we should note that Orlando City’s only MLS loss in its last seven MLS matches was at Sporting Kansas City, a team that is among the hottest in MLS, with results in four of its last five matches. Even though SKC lost, it played some close matches with several of the top teams in the league (LA Galaxy, Real Salt Lake, Colorado, Vancouver) before that. Perhaps Orlando City’s loss away in Kansas City was not as bad as it seemed at the time.

No, that loss still stunk.

Coming back to our ranking, I got out my mathematics degree, shined it up, blew it a kiss, and then put together a very fancy (read: very simple) algorithm using standard deviations to determine the order of most to least likely for Orlando City to get a win, with a formula that went:

That formula produced the list below, ranked in order of the upcoming schedule, accompanied by the team’s rank in order of likelihood of Orlando City getting a win (higher numbers mean Orlando City is more likely to win):

Whether this algorithm is correct or not, there is no doubt that the next two games for Orlando City are absolutely critical in both the made-up pursuit of a fourth straight season of at least 48 points and the more important push to secure a playoff berth and the opportunity to win MLS Cup. The next game (New England) is always the most important game, and after that, Orlando City could have an opportunity to pass Charlotte and move up the table, depending on how the Lions do against New England and how Charlotte does in its Sept. 14 match against CF Montréal. Both matches are at home, and despite their poor overall home record the Lions have three wins and one draw in their last four home MLS games. It would be quite nice to extend that to five wins in their last six before going on the road to Columbus.

I am going to predict that Orlando City does indeed win against New England and Charlotte, loses on the road at Columbus, ties at Dallas, ties Philadelphia, loses at Cincinnati, and closes with a home win over Atlanta for a final record of 3-2-2 during those last seven matches. The mathematically inclined will quickly recognize that a 3-2-2 record adds up to the 11 points the Lions needed to get to 48 points, but leaves them short of getting to 50 for the third time in the last four years. They would secure a playoff position, but they would also be on the road for the first game, and a third game as well if the series goes to three games.

While the team has definitely been playing a lot better as of late, I think this last seven-match run is a difficult one and the Lions will have to really push to do even as well as I predicted, which is only earning 11 of a possible 21 points. They have it in them to make a run. Let’s hope they come back from this bye week ready to roar and rub my prediction right in my face.

Orlando City

Orlando City Showing Signs of Adjusting to Eduard Atuesta’s Absence

The Lions have looked much better on offense the last two games, and there’s a couple of reasons why.

Published

on

Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

Much has been made of Orlando City’s difficulties in creating chances and scoring goals when Eduard Atuesta has been unavailable due to injury. It’s not hard to understand why either. The Colombian was unavailable for three of Orlando’s four scoreless draws this year, and he only played nine minutes as a substitute in the stalemate against the New York Red Bulls on April 12.

When he was healthy and got the start against Atlanta United two games later, the Lions won 3-0 and he created the most chances of anyone in the game with three. Orlando then promptly reverted to being offensively stunted in the following game against the Chicago Fire, and was only able to manage its fourth scoreless draw of the year, despite playing over a half the game with a man advantage.

There certainly seemed to be plenty of evidence pointing towards Atuesta being the missing cog in Orlando City’s offense. While he only has two assists in eight games, he does a ton of work in linking the defense to the attack and is great at finding attacking players in dangerous areas, as evidenced by his 17 key passes. In the 0-0 draws with the Philadelphia Union, CF Montreal, and the Fire, Orlando just didn’t look right without him, although the Red Bulls game was a much better performance that was ultimately derailed by Rodrigo Schlegel’s sending off.

While he hasn’t played in either of Orlando’s last two league matches, a 3-3 draw against the New England Revolution, and a 3-1 win against Charlotte FC, the offense clearly hasn’t had any problem creating chances. If anything, the Lions should have scored more goals if not for a couple instances of less-than-crisp finishing in each match.

So, why the sudden change?

Well for one thing, the Designated Players are firing on all cylinders again. Martin Ojeda scored a hat trick against New England, and he and Luis Muriel scored Orlando’s first two goals against Charlotte. Ojeda didn’t start either of the two games against Atlanta and Chicago because he was dealing with a minor injury, but now that it’s in the rearview mirror, he’s been a man possessed. Muriel probably should have had at least one goal of his own against the Revs but seemed oddly reluctant to shoot, although he still completed three dribbles and delivered three key passes. The Charlotte game was then his turn to come out of the gate swinging, as he narrowly had a goal ruled out for offside just two minutes in, before hammering a venomous shot from distance just six minutes later that gave Kristijan Kahlina all sorts of trouble and opened the scoring.

It isn’t just getting contributions from the big guns though, because we need to acknowledge the play of rookie Joran Gerbet in these last two games. He’s the man who’s been asked to fill in for Atuesta next to Cesar Araujo, and he’s getting more and more comfortable in that role. Against the Revs he had an interception, a key pass and an assist, and completed a long ball and a through ball while recording a passing accuracy of 86.5%. Against Charlotte, he recorded an interception, three clearances, a completed dribble, and two successful long balls, and he had an outstanding passing accuracy of 98%. They weren’t all simply backwards or sideways passes either. There were plenty of times when he progressed the ball upfield to an attacking player and helped keep the Lions moving forward, and that’s exactly what you want out of the guy playing that position.

He still has a way to go before reaching Atuesta’s level, but that’s to be expected for a guy that’s playing the first professional season of his career. What’s most important is that he’s getting more comfortable, contributing, and proving that he can be a legitimate option to rotate into the starting XI when Atuesta is unavailable or when fixture congestion dictates changes to the lineup.

It’s worth mentioning the caveat that the last two games haven’t been against the strongest opposition the league has to offer. The Revs were on a four-game winning streak before playing Orlando, but three of those four wins were against weak or shaky teams in Atlanta, Toronto FC, and Charlotte, while the fourth team (NYCFC) has been difficult to get a read on. I’m not saying the Revs are a paper tiger, but it’s tough to know how good they really are despite a good run of recent form. Then you have Charlotte, which was above the playoff line but also on a three-game losing streak coming into the match that has now been convincingly extended to four.

At the end of the day, you can only beat who’s in front of you, but I’d encourage us all to not get too carried away until we see the same results against sterner opposition. For better or worse, that’s exactly what we’ll get in the Lions’ next three matches, which will be against a capable, albeit flawed, Inter Miami side on the road, at home in the U.S. Open Cup against a Nashville SC team that’s fourth in the East, and at home against the Portland Timbers, who are currently fourth in the West.


Ultimately, we can only judge this team on what we’ve seen from it, and over the last two games we’ve seen a side that’s had no trouble creating chances. Despite the continued absence of the important Atuesta, the Lions are adjusting thanks to contributions from their heavy hitters and the improving play of the rookie Gerbet. Only time will tell if those improvements are sustainable, but for now its a hell of a lot of fun to enjoy.

Continue Reading

Lion Links

Lion Links: 5/16/25

Orlando City players make MLS Team of the Matchday, Luis Muriel focused, Orlando Pride plays tonight, and more.

Published

on

Image courtesy of Orlando City SC

Happy Friday! I’ve had a pretty good week so far and am looking forward to three straight days of Orlando soccer. The Orlando Pride will get us started tonight and then we have Orlando City B on Saturday before Orlando City plays on Sunday. It should be a fun next few days, and hopefully one filled with celebrations too. Let’s dive into today’s links!

Lions Make MLS Team of the Matchday

There’s plenty of purple in the latest MLS Team of the Matchday following Orlando City’s 3-1 win over Charlotte FC. Martin Ojeda and David Brekalo were both selected, while Oscar Pareja was chosen as the top coach from the midweek slate. Ojeda’s strike in the first half is also up for Goal of the Matchday as his strong run of form continues. The only outfield player on this Team of the Matchday that didn’t score is Brekalo, who had two assists, so it’s nice to see him receive deserved recognition for an excellent performance that included a great setup on Orlando’s third goal. Pareja has the Lions on an 11-game unbeaten streak across all competitions and is managing things well so far during this busy May.

Luis Muriel Staying Focused in Sophomore Season

With five goals so far this season, Orlando City forward Luis Muriel has already mirrored his scoring total from all of last season. Staying mentally prepared has been key for the 34-year-old in his second year with Orlando, and he spoke about what’s changed for him after not quite reaching expectations in his first year.

“Coming to a league like this isn’t easy. A lot of times from the outside, you aren’t able to measure up or really see what the league is. Sometimes you can underestimate things, thinking it’s easy,” Muriel said. “That leads you to take things on in a different way, the work, the matches.

“When you go into ‘MLS Mode’ you realize how good the league is, how competitive it is, how demanding the league is to be able to do things well. That’s when things start to flow, to go well. I think that’s the difference between this year and last.”

He’s finding his footing in the league now and was a force to be reckoned with against Charlotte on Wednesday. Muriel is aware that the Lions will need him to be at his best when they travel to take on Inter Miami on Sunday for an important rivalry clash.

Diving Into Justin Ellis’s Ascent

Victor Olorunfemi of Top Drawer Soccer gave a great profile on Orlando City B forward Justin Ellis and his growth with the club. Ellis, who just celebrated his 18th birthday on Wednesday with his MLS debut, is having a great year after a solid season with OCB last year. The high school senior was the top scorer at this year’s Generation Adidas Cup with six goals to help Orlando’s U-18 team win the tournament. He can create chances just as well as he can convert them and is quick to give credit to the coaches and staff that have helped him develop. The U.S. youth pool is deep, but Ellis could be a name to keep an eye out for ahead of the U-20 World Cup in September.

Orlando Pride Match Headlines NWSL Weekend

The Orlando Pride’s match tonight against the Kansas City Current is the premier matchup this week in the NWSL. While I wouldn’t call it a rivalry just yet, these two teams had great games last year. The Current are still out for revenge after Orlando beat them while shorthanded last summer and won again in the NWSL playoffs in Orlando before winning the NWSL Championship in Kansas City. First place in the league is on the line and it should be a thrilling match featuring the league’s top two defenses and attacking threats like Barbra Banda, Temwa Chawinga, Marta, and Debinha.

NWSL Contenders and Underperformers

We’re about a third of the way into the NWSL season and ESPN‘s Jeff Kassouf dove into how each team is meeting its expectations so far. Despite their stumbles in recent weeks, the Pride are near the top of the table and have plenty of time to get things firing on all cylinders. Two of the California teams are enjoying surprising success so far, with the San Diego Wave up in fourth while Angel City FC is in fifth and could become a real contender once Alexander Straus takes over as head coach. NJ/NY Gotham FC and the North Carolina Courage are sleeping giants of sorts, so it will be interesting to see when they start climbing up the table.

Free Kicks

  • You’ll need a paid subscription for the full details, but Orlando City right back Alex Freeman continues to impress this season. Freeman is finding success in a way different from his father Antonio Freeman, who led the NFL in receiving yards for the Green Bay Packers in 1998.
  • This year’s MLS pre-match jerseys to celebrate Pride month are out and they’re a vibrant and funky design.

Love lifts us up 💜The new 2025 Pride Pre-Match Jerseys are here!🛒 orlsoccer.co/fbpri

Orlando City SC (@orlandocitysc.com) 2025-05-15T18:56:08.764Z
  • Esther Gonzalez leads the NWSL with seven goals this season and has agreed to a contract extension with Gotham FC that will last through 2027.
  • FIFA representatives, including FA Chair Debbie Hewitt and UEFA President Alexander Ceferin, walked out of FIFA’s annual congress in protest of FIFA President Gianni Infantino arriving three hours late. Infantino has spent this week in the Middle East visiting leaders in Saudi Arabia and Qatar with Donald Trump.
  • FC Barcelona officially won this year’s La Liga title after a 2-0 win over Espanyol. Phenom Lamine Yamal scored a sensational goal in the match, which is fitting considering how crucial he was to Barcelona winning the league this year.
  • Predictable names like Luis Enrique and Antonio Conte are on the list of top European coaches this year, but this article also shines a light on coaches who navigated tough waters in small boats. Alexander Blessin has St. Pauli on the verge of survival in the Bundesliga and Filippo Inzaghi improved Pisa by 30 points in Serie B to secure promotion.

That’s all I have for you this time around. I hope you all have a fantastic Friday and rest of your weekend!

Continue Reading

Orlando City

Orlando City vs. Inter Miami: Three Keys to Victory

What do the Lions need to do to secure a victory in Sunday’s edition of Tropic Thunder?

Published

on

Image courtesy of Orlando City / Mark Thor

The first Tropic Thunder match of the season is here. As I recently said on The Mane Land PawedCast, I am both looking forward to and dreading this match. I think that is an appropriate feeling. Orlando City is in the midst of a congested May schedule, but every match matters.

Inter Miami tops my list of hated teams at this point. As such, I very much want the Lions to win and for Florida to be purple. What does Orlando City need to do to earn all three points on the road against their in-state rivals?

Pocket Messi

Orlando City must keep Lionel Messi from having too big of an impact on the match. There are plenty of other players that the defense will need to worry about, and I’ll get to them. What I’m looking for is a frustrated Messi — Messi that feels he should be getting calls on the lightest of touches but is not.

The pair of players that I’m expecting to keep an eye on Messi are Cesar Araujo and Rodrigo Schlegel. The lion’s share of that burden will fall to Araujo. I want him to be hounding Messi every time he gets the ball. If Messi is able to get past Araujo, I want Schlegel to be right in his face. We’re all sick of MLS and Apple TV putting his smug mug in our faces at every opportunity. It’s time for two of Orlando’s defenders to take the shine off of Messi.

Deal with the Rest

Assuming Araujo can limit Messi, Orlando City still has to deal with Miami’s talented attacking players not named Messi. Miami and Orlando entered Wednesday night’s game with the same number of goals scored (21) and allowed (15) this season, although the Herons conceded more at San Jose (3) than the Lions (1) did at home against Charlotte. Each scored three times on Wednesday. However, the memory of the last time the Lions faced Miami at Chase Stadium in Ft. Lauderdale is a 5-0 loss. That isn’t something we want to see again.

Theoretically, no match is more important than another, although an argument could be made that Tropic Thunder is no mere match. I fully expect a starting back line of Alex Freeman, Schlegel, Robin Jansson, and David Brekalo in front of Pedro Gallese to stop Miami’s attack. A clean sheet is the objective.

Alex vs. Alba

As you can tell, this is a very defensive heavy Three Keys, but given what happened in this fixture last year, I don’t think it’s out of line. Alex Freeman has been good this season. He has secured the starting spot at right back and seems unlikely to give it back. One of the things he is good at is getting into the attack with Marco Pasalic. That isn’t what I’m looking for from him this weekend.

Miami’s Jordi Alba is a dangerous player that Freeman will be expected to help contain. Alba has five assists, seven successful crosses, and 13 key passes so far this season. If Freeman is still getting up the pitch to assist in the attack, he will need to make sure he isn’t allowing Alba free rein to get behind him and serve as a provider in Orlando’s half of the field.


That is what I will be looking for Sunday night. Let me know your thoughts in the comments below. Vamos Orlando!

Continue Reading

Trending