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Orlando City

Predictions for Orlando City’s Remaining Games of the 2024 Season

A deep dive into Orlando City’s final seven opponents and predictions on the Lions will do in those matchups.

Published

5 months ago

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

We do not often write about National Football League Commissioner Roger Goodell at The Mane Land, but it is clear that the NFL was intentional about scheduling its season-opening weekend on a bye weekend for Orlando City, lest they lose all of their viewers to watching the team that you know and I know is the most exciting team to watch in all of sports. Fittingly for the city of Orlando, that excitement has been similar to a roller coaster this season, with ups and downs throughout, but with positive results in eight of the last 10 matches and wins in six of those matches, the team is clearly now heading in the right direction. The question remains whether the Lions will continue this climb or if they are just leading up to a sudden drop.

The Lions have seven games remaining on their regular-reason schedule, and at a quick glance it would appear like they have an excellent chance of continuing their hot streak and picking up points in more than half of those games. The next games in order are:

  • Home vs. New England (1.04 points/game this season, 23rd in MLS)
  • Home vs. Charlotte (1.41, 14th)
  • At Columbus (1.96, second)
  • At Dallas (1.22, 18th)
  • Home vs. Philadelphia (1.11, 21st)
  • At Cincinnati (1.89, fourth)
  • Home vs. Atlanta (1.15, 20th)

As Orlando City is currently on a pace of 1.37 points per game, which is 15th in MLS, the Lions are playing four teams with lower points per game this season, one that is nearly the same, and two that have been performing better thus far this season.

In looking a little deeper at the seven remaining opponents, however, that schedule actually starts to look a little more difficult. If you look at the results from the most recent five matches instead of the season as a whole, Orlando City is playing four teams (Columbus, Dallas, Philadelphia, Atlanta) that are performing better recently than they had been for all games prior to their most recent five games. Two of those teams (Columbus and Dallas) are tied with Orlando City for second in MLS, with 10 points from their last five games. Unfortunately for Orlando City, both of those games against Columbus and Dallas will be on the road, but then again, Orlando’s road record of 6-3-5 (1.50 points/game) is better than its home record of 4-4-5 (1.23 points/game), so perhaps that is actually fortunate.

In looking even deeper, well, this chart will help show how all over the place Orlando City’s opponents really are when you look at their full season performance and also their more recent performance. (PPG = points per game and GDG = goal differential per game, which I needed to use instead of just plain goal differential, since the teams have not all played the same amount of games.)

New England’s -0.84 under Full Season GDG means that for the full season the Revolution have been losing games by an average of 0.84 goals per game.

A few takeaways from this chart:

  • I mentioned earlier that four teams are getting better results recently than they had been before the most recent five matches, but Dallas and Philadelphia are both playing significantly better than they had before, while Atlanta and Columbus are only playing slightly better than they had before.
  • That said, Columbus was playing really well and is still playing really well, so that lack of improvement is relative, since the Crew did not have a lot of room to improve and yet they still did.
  • Cincinnati is a stunning case, since the club had only lost four of its first 22 matches before losing four of its next five. And in those four losses, Cincinnati was outscored 9-2, leading to that big drop in GDG. Even with that swoon, Cincinnati is still ranked fourth overall in MLS and third in the Eastern Conference in points per game.
  • Lastly, the section on the far right shows how each team has performed at home or on the road this season. The Match Location is for Orlando City, and the Opponent PPG shows, for example, that Philadelphia averages 1.31 points on the road this season. Orlando City has a better location-based PPG than its opponent in only three (New England, Charlotte, Atlanta) of the final seven games.

During each of the last three seasons, Orlando City earned at least 48 points during the regular season, and to make it four years in a row, the Lions will need to pick up at least 11 points from these final seven games. Here are the possible points the Lions can still earn, based on the number of wins they could have in those seven games:

Just looking at the math, it is possible that they could get to 11 points with only two wins, but that would require no losses in the other five games, and I think that is asking a lot for a team that has lost 37% of its games thus far this season. I think the most likely way that Orlando City gets to at least 11 points is three wins and two draws or four wins and any number of draws, so we need to rank the final seven opponents based on the likelihood of an Orlando City win.

Before we do that, however, we should note that Orlando City’s only MLS loss in its last seven MLS matches was at Sporting Kansas City, a team that is among the hottest in MLS, with results in four of its last five matches. Even though SKC lost, it played some close matches with several of the top teams in the league (LA Galaxy, Real Salt Lake, Colorado, Vancouver) before that. Perhaps Orlando City’s loss away in Kansas City was not as bad as it seemed at the time.

No, that loss still stunk.

Coming back to our ranking, I got out my mathematics degree, shined it up, blew it a kiss, and then put together a very fancy (read: very simple) algorithm using standard deviations to determine the order of most to least likely for Orlando City to get a win, with a formula that went:

That formula produced the list below, ranked in order of the upcoming schedule, accompanied by the team’s rank in order of likelihood of Orlando City getting a win (higher numbers mean Orlando City is more likely to win):

Whether this algorithm is correct or not, there is no doubt that the next two games for Orlando City are absolutely critical in both the made-up pursuit of a fourth straight season of at least 48 points and the more important push to secure a playoff berth and the opportunity to win MLS Cup. The next game (New England) is always the most important game, and after that, Orlando City could have an opportunity to pass Charlotte and move up the table, depending on how the Lions do against New England and how Charlotte does in its Sept. 14 match against CF Montréal. Both matches are at home, and despite their poor overall home record the Lions have three wins and one draw in their last four home MLS games. It would be quite nice to extend that to five wins in their last six before going on the road to Columbus.

I am going to predict that Orlando City does indeed win against New England and Charlotte, loses on the road at Columbus, ties at Dallas, ties Philadelphia, loses at Cincinnati, and closes with a home win over Atlanta for a final record of 3-2-2 during those last seven matches. The mathematically inclined will quickly recognize that a 3-2-2 record adds up to the 11 points the Lions needed to get to 48 points, but leaves them short of getting to 50 for the third time in the last four years. They would secure a playoff position, but they would also be on the road for the first game, and a third game as well if the series goes to three games.

While the team has definitely been playing a lot better as of late, I think this last seven-match run is a difficult one and the Lions will have to really push to do even as well as I predicted, which is only earning 11 of a possible 21 points. They have it in them to make a run. Let’s hope they come back from this bye week ready to roar and rub my prediction right in my face.

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Orlando City

Orlando City Signs Defender Thomas Williams Through 2026

Orlando City signs Homegrown center back Thomas Williams to a new contract through 2026 with a club option for 2027.

Published

20 hours ago

on

January 22, 2025

By

Image courtesy of Orlando City B / Mark Thor

Orlando City announced this morning that the club has signed defender Thomas Williams through the 2026 season with a club option for 2027. The Homegrown Player has been with the first team since 2021 and will continue for at least two more years.

“Thomas is someone whose future we’re still very excited about and we’re happy to get him locked in with us for a couple more years,” Executive Vice President of Soccer Operations and General Manager Luiz Muzzi said in a club press release. “He’s shown a lot of growth these last few seasons, continuing to get game action with Orlando City B and proving the importance of our development pathway, and we’re looking forward to having him with us for the foreseeable future.”

The Titusville native joined the Orlando City Academy in 2015 and made his professional debut for the club on Aug. 7, 2020 against New England Revolution II. He played in 13 games that year with 10 starts and recorded 844 minutes. His play on the Young Lions’ back line earned him a first-team contract on June 15, 2021, at just 16 years old, making him the youngest player in club history to sign a Homegrown contract.

The 20-year-old center back made his MLS debut on April 16, 2022 in a 2-0 win over the Columbus Crew in Ohio. He made five appearances with three starts in all competitions that season, recording 271 minutes. To date, those are the only appearances he’s made with the first team.

Since joining OCB in 2021, Williams has made 69 appearances with 61 starts and recorded 5,132 minutes. He’s been booked 19 times and sent off twice, both times after receiving second yellow cards.

What It Means for Orlando City

Williams is the fourth natural center back for Orlando City on the current squad behind Robin Jansson, David Brekalo, and Rodrigo Schlegel. He played well early in his OCB and MLS career, but has struggled recently. Last year, he played exclusively with the second team, partnering with Nabi Kibunguchy.

While Williams hasn’t made much of an impact on the first team so far, he’s only 20 years old and still has plenty of time to develop. Extending his contact shows that the club still has faith that he can turn into a key player for the MLS side.

It’s unlikely that Williams will see any time with the first team in 2025 (barring injuries and/or suspensions), considering that he’s also been behind versatile defender Kyle Smith at the center back position. He’ll likely spend the upcoming season with OCB, continuing to develop and earn his spot with the first team. As a Homegrown Player, there isn’t much risk in signing Williams to a new contract, especially if the club’s technical staff thinks he can develop into a quality defender.

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Lion Links

Lion Links: 1/22/25

Orlando City transfer rumors, Orlando Pride preseason begins, USMNT at Inter&Co, and more.

Published

24 hours ago

on

January 22, 2025

By

Dan MacDonald, The ManeLand

Welcome to Wednesday, Mane Landers. Up here in Tallahassee, I’m waking up to snow/sleet, closed schools, closed government offices, and potentially icy roads. Many people will get an extra day off of work, however, I still get to go to work. I’m sure you can imagine how happy I am about that. Enough of my winter grumbling. Let’s get to the links but not until after we wish Orlando City fullback Michael Halliday a happy 22nd birthday.

Orlando City Reportedly Targeting Croatian International

While I can no longer say that Orlando City hasn’t signed any new players, the club is still moving at its traditionally slow speed as compared to other MLS clubs. We had the signing of Nicolas Rodriguez last week. Now, we have Tom Bogert report of yet another winger prospect for the club in Croatian Marco Pasalic from HNK Rijeka, though it is not a done deal. Hopefully the other targets Bogert mentions are of the striker variety.

https://twitter.com/tombogert/status/1881755961125449765?s=46&t=pMoq7Wulqfb35D7C8ydroA

Pride Preseason Begins

The 2024 NWSL champions are back to defend their title. The Orlando Pride returned to training on Tuesday. The club hasn’t needed to add many pieces, though some of the players already here, like Simone Charley and Grace Chanda, haven’t actually played any minutes for the Pride yet. Most of the chemistry is in place for Seb Hines, but reinforcing those bonds will be the challenge as the Pride look to repeat.

USMNT at Inter&Co Tonight

Hopefully you have tickets to the USMNT friendly match versus Costa Rica at Inter&Co Stadium tonight. The match starts at 7 p.m. and there are television and streaming options if you’re not going in person. Despite the squad having 14 players with three or fewer caps, Mauricio Pochettino does not consider this an “alternative” squad, nor does he want the players to think of themselves like that.

Girma Reportedly Nearing Completion of Chelsea Move

USWNT defender Naomi Girma is reportedly headed to Chelsea FC Women for a record $1.1 million transfer fee. That is a very big chunk of change for San Diego FC to use to try to replace one of the best defenders in the world. The deal is not complete as of Tuesday evening, but according to the original report from The Athletic, it is close to being done. Girma would be the first women’s soccer player to earn a transfer fee of over $1 million.

MLS Transfer Updates

Other MLS clubs keep on putting pen to paper when it comes to new players. The Chicago Fire are bringing in Jonathan Bamba on a Designated Player deal from La Liga side Celta de Vigo. The Luca de la Torre loan from Spain’s RC Celta de Vigo to San Diego FC is also official.

https://twitter.com/sandiegofc/status/1881741042904350864

Cucho Hernandez evidently wants to stay with the Columbus Crew, though he is still waiting on a new offer.

https://twitter.com/tombogert/status/1881786193693823104

Free Kicks

https://twitter.com/weareangelcity/status/1881749040863588770?s=12&t=_WZBNG4ILAyRLdwBeB4mpQ
  • Keep your eyes peeled later today for the NWSL schedule drop.
https://twitter.com/nwsl/status/1881749035218042954?s=46&t=pN-YJp3s7ZQlCXqnTAgSfw

That will do it for today. Stay warm out there, my friends. Vamos Orlando!

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Lion Links

Lion Links: 1/21/25

Orlando Pride release preseason camp roster, scouting Costa Rica, women’s soccer transfer grades, and more.

Published

2 days ago

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January 21, 2025

By

Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

Good morning, everyone! If you had yesterday off for Martin Luther King Jr. Day, then I hope you enjoyed some restful time off. If not, then I hope you got your week started off on a good and productive note. There’s a lot going on around here this week as the United States Men’s National Team is in town, and Orlando City will play its first preseason match on Saturday. That means we have plenty to discuss, so let’s dig into today’s links.

Orlando Pride Drop Preseason Roster

Monday might have been a holiday but the Orlando Pride were busy, as they announced the roster for their upcoming preseason camp. Almost all of the usual suspects from the 2024 season are back, as the Pride return 98% of the player-minutes from last season and every single scorer. Mariana Larroquette is on the list although she’s currently on loan in Argentina, and Amanda Allen is likewise included after her loan at Lexington Sporting Club was terminated due to a torn labrum. The biggest intrigue comes from the trio of non-roster invitees: goalkeeper DeAira Jackson, midfielder Aryssa Mahrt, and forward Simone Jackson.

Scouting Costa Rica

The USMNT takes on Costa Rica on Wednesday at Inter&Co Stadium to wrap up the team’s annual January camp. Like the U.S., Costa Rica is bringing a roster devoid of the majority of its important players. Costa Rica also has a new manager at the helm in Miguel Herrera, who will take charge of the team for the very first time on Wednesday. Herrera typically lines his teams up in a 5-3-2 where the wingbacks take on a very important role and the team looks to hit on the counter while staying compact at the back. This will be the last time we see the USMNT in action until the Concacaf Nations League semifinals in early March.

Women’s Soccer January Transfer Grades

January has been a busy time for transfers in the women’s soccer world, so which teams have done the best business? Well, the Orlando Pride received an A grade for signing Marta to a new two-year deal, retaining a player who helped the team win its first ever trophies. Liverpool got an A for signing Julia Bartel on loan from Chelsea. Leicester City made an interesting call by transferring goalkeeper Lize Kop to Tottenham despite just being a point above the relegation zone. The Foxes get a C for the move, while Spurs get a B+ for adding a capable netminder.

Americans in Midweek Action

There are a number of Americans taking part in some very important games over the course of this week. Weston McKennie, Tim Weah, and Juventus face Club Brugge today in the UEFA Champions League, while Ricardo Pepi, Richy Ledezma, Esmir Bajraktarević, Malik Tillman and PSV Eindhoven take on Crvena Zvezda in the same competition. Christian Pulisic, Yunus Musah, and AC Milan will play Girona in the UCL on Wednesday, while Cameron Carter-Vickers, Auston Trusty, and Celtic take on Young Boys. On Friday, John Tolkin could make his Bundesliga debut when his new team, Holstein Kiel, travels to face Wolfsburg.

Free Kicks

  • Orlando Pride players reported for their preseason physicals on Monday.
  • Meanwhile, Orlando City took on the dreaded beep test during Monday’s training session.

That’s all I have for you today. Vamos Orlando!

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