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Predictions for Orlando City’s Remaining Games of the 2024 Season

A deep dive into Orlando City’s final seven opponents and predictions on the Lions will do in those matchups.

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2 months ago

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

We do not often write about National Football League Commissioner Roger Goodell at The Mane Land, but it is clear that the NFL was intentional about scheduling its season-opening weekend on a bye weekend for Orlando City, lest they lose all of their viewers to watching the team that you know and I know is the most exciting team to watch in all of sports. Fittingly for the city of Orlando, that excitement has been similar to a roller coaster this season, with ups and downs throughout, but with positive results in eight of the last 10 matches and wins in six of those matches, the team is clearly now heading in the right direction. The question remains whether the Lions will continue this climb or if they are just leading up to a sudden drop.

The Lions have seven games remaining on their regular-reason schedule, and at a quick glance it would appear like they have an excellent chance of continuing their hot streak and picking up points in more than half of those games. The next games in order are:

  • Home vs. New England (1.04 points/game this season, 23rd in MLS)
  • Home vs. Charlotte (1.41, 14th)
  • At Columbus (1.96, second)
  • At Dallas (1.22, 18th)
  • Home vs. Philadelphia (1.11, 21st)
  • At Cincinnati (1.89, fourth)
  • Home vs. Atlanta (1.15, 20th)

As Orlando City is currently on a pace of 1.37 points per game, which is 15th in MLS, the Lions are playing four teams with lower points per game this season, one that is nearly the same, and two that have been performing better thus far this season.

In looking a little deeper at the seven remaining opponents, however, that schedule actually starts to look a little more difficult. If you look at the results from the most recent five matches instead of the season as a whole, Orlando City is playing four teams (Columbus, Dallas, Philadelphia, Atlanta) that are performing better recently than they had been for all games prior to their most recent five games. Two of those teams (Columbus and Dallas) are tied with Orlando City for second in MLS, with 10 points from their last five games. Unfortunately for Orlando City, both of those games against Columbus and Dallas will be on the road, but then again, Orlando’s road record of 6-3-5 (1.50 points/game) is better than its home record of 4-4-5 (1.23 points/game), so perhaps that is actually fortunate.

In looking even deeper, well, this chart will help show how all over the place Orlando City’s opponents really are when you look at their full season performance and also their more recent performance. (PPG = points per game and GDG = goal differential per game, which I needed to use instead of just plain goal differential, since the teams have not all played the same amount of games.)

New England’s -0.84 under Full Season GDG means that for the full season the Revolution have been losing games by an average of 0.84 goals per game.

A few takeaways from this chart:

  • I mentioned earlier that four teams are getting better results recently than they had been before the most recent five matches, but Dallas and Philadelphia are both playing significantly better than they had before, while Atlanta and Columbus are only playing slightly better than they had before.
  • That said, Columbus was playing really well and is still playing really well, so that lack of improvement is relative, since the Crew did not have a lot of room to improve and yet they still did.
  • Cincinnati is a stunning case, since the club had only lost four of its first 22 matches before losing four of its next five. And in those four losses, Cincinnati was outscored 9-2, leading to that big drop in GDG. Even with that swoon, Cincinnati is still ranked fourth overall in MLS and third in the Eastern Conference in points per game.
  • Lastly, the section on the far right shows how each team has performed at home or on the road this season. The Match Location is for Orlando City, and the Opponent PPG shows, for example, that Philadelphia averages 1.31 points on the road this season. Orlando City has a better location-based PPG than its opponent in only three (New England, Charlotte, Atlanta) of the final seven games.

During each of the last three seasons, Orlando City earned at least 48 points during the regular season, and to make it four years in a row, the Lions will need to pick up at least 11 points from these final seven games. Here are the possible points the Lions can still earn, based on the number of wins they could have in those seven games:

Just looking at the math, it is possible that they could get to 11 points with only two wins, but that would require no losses in the other five games, and I think that is asking a lot for a team that has lost 37% of its games thus far this season. I think the most likely way that Orlando City gets to at least 11 points is three wins and two draws or four wins and any number of draws, so we need to rank the final seven opponents based on the likelihood of an Orlando City win.

Before we do that, however, we should note that Orlando City’s only MLS loss in its last seven MLS matches was at Sporting Kansas City, a team that is among the hottest in MLS, with results in four of its last five matches. Even though SKC lost, it played some close matches with several of the top teams in the league (LA Galaxy, Real Salt Lake, Colorado, Vancouver) before that. Perhaps Orlando City’s loss away in Kansas City was not as bad as it seemed at the time.

No, that loss still stunk.

Coming back to our ranking, I got out my mathematics degree, shined it up, blew it a kiss, and then put together a very fancy (read: very simple) algorithm using standard deviations to determine the order of most to least likely for Orlando City to get a win, with a formula that went:

That formula produced the list below, ranked in order of the upcoming schedule, accompanied by the team’s rank in order of likelihood of Orlando City getting a win (higher numbers mean Orlando City is more likely to win):

Whether this algorithm is correct or not, there is no doubt that the next two games for Orlando City are absolutely critical in both the made-up pursuit of a fourth straight season of at least 48 points and the more important push to secure a playoff berth and the opportunity to win MLS Cup. The next game (New England) is always the most important game, and after that, Orlando City could have an opportunity to pass Charlotte and move up the table, depending on how the Lions do against New England and how Charlotte does in its Sept. 14 match against CF Montréal. Both matches are at home, and despite their poor overall home record the Lions have three wins and one draw in their last four home MLS games. It would be quite nice to extend that to five wins in their last six before going on the road to Columbus.

I am going to predict that Orlando City does indeed win against New England and Charlotte, loses on the road at Columbus, ties at Dallas, ties Philadelphia, loses at Cincinnati, and closes with a home win over Atlanta for a final record of 3-2-2 during those last seven matches. The mathematically inclined will quickly recognize that a 3-2-2 record adds up to the 11 points the Lions needed to get to 48 points, but leaves them short of getting to 50 for the third time in the last four years. They would secure a playoff position, but they would also be on the road for the first game, and a third game as well if the series goes to three games.

While the team has definitely been playing a lot better as of late, I think this last seven-match run is a difficult one and the Lions will have to really push to do even as well as I predicted, which is only earning 11 of a possible 21 points. They have it in them to make a run. Let’s hope they come back from this bye week ready to roar and rub my prediction right in my face.

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Lion Links

Lion Links: 11/14/24

MLS playoff predictions, Barbra Banda and Marta earn recognition, USMNT takes on Jamaica tonight, and more.

Published

5 hours ago

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November 14, 2024

By

Dan MacDonald, The Mane Land

How’s it going, Mane Landers? I’ve been a bit under the weather this week, but it’s at least meant I’ve been able to spend more time with my cat and get some reading done when not hacking up a lung. But enough about that, let’s dive into today’s links from around the soccer world!

MLS Conference Semifinal Predictions

Former Orlando City captain Sacha Kljestan weighed in on which of the remaining eight teams will prevail in the MLS playoffs. He predicts that Atlanta United can lean on its counterattacking and Brad Guzan’s goalkeeping to beat Orlando City when the two rivals face off in Orlando on Nov. 24. A key thing to watch heading into the match is if Head Coach Oscar Pareja switches things up up top given Ramiro Enrique’s slump.

Kljestan predicts a tight match between New York City FC and the New York Red Bulls, but has NYCFC moving on. He also has both the LA Galaxy and LAFC advancing in the Western Conference, which would set up a playoff edition of El Trafico.

Pride Players Make ESPN’s Top 50

ESPN unveiled its annual list of the top 50 women’s soccer players and a pair of Orlando Pride players made the list. Forward Barbra Banda is ranked third on the list for crushing it in her first year in the NWSL, scoring 13 goals to help the Pride win the NWSL Shield. Marta, who has not been listed in the past two years, ranked 26th for turning back the clock at 38 years old and creating 46 chances for Orlando this season. Barcelona’s Aitana Bonmati tops the list, with Naomi Girma in second, Caroline Graham Hansen in fourth, and Sophia Smith rounding out the top five. There are many voters for this year’s list from around the world, including Vice President of Soccer Operations and Sporting Director Haley Carter.

Steven Moreira Named Defender of the Year

The Columbus Crew’s Steven Moreira was named 2024 MLS Defender of the Year after a strong season. He made 27 appearances for the Crew this season and was a key part of his team’s success in the Concacaf Champions Cup and Leagues Cup this year. Moreira also helped out offensively with two goals and four assists and was an All-Star this year. The 30-year-old beat out Inter Miami’s Jordi Alba and Seattle Sounders center back Jackson Ragen for the award.

USMNT Takes On Jamaica Tonight

The United States Men’s National Team will play its first competitive match under Head Coach Mauricio Pochettino tonight when it takes on Jamaica in Kingston in the Concacaf Nations League. Although the U.S. may be favored in this series, playing on the road in Concacaf is always tough and Jamaica tends to keep things close against the Yanks. Tonight’s match is the first of the two-leg quarterfinals, with the two nations facing off again in St. Louis on Monday. Hopefully Pochettino can get the team firing on all cylinders as it continues to prepare for the 2026 World Cup.

Free Kicks

  • In a rollercoaster of a match, the U.S. Men’s Deaf National Team fell in a penalty shootout to Brazil in the Deaf Pan American Games. The U.S. took the lead in extra time, but Brazil battled back to tie it, winning from the spot to reach the final.

That’s all I have for you today. I hope you all have a wonderful Thursday and rest of your week!

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Lion Links

Lion Links: 11/13/24

Orlando City’s international call-ups, Orlando Pride playoffs preview, NWSL Awards voting opens, and more.

Published

1 day ago

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November 13, 2024

By

Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

Welcome to Wednesday, Mane Landers. Orlando City might have to wait a week to continue its playoff journey, but the Orlando Pride do not. The Kansas City Current are coming to town this Sunday for the third meeting between these NWSL heavyweights this year, and I will be there. I hope you will make it to Inter&Co Stadium to show this Pride club how much we appreciate all they have done this season in their final home match of the season. For now, let’s get to the links.

Lions on International Duty

Several Orlando City players received call-ups for this international break, including Facundo Torres for Uruguay. Additionally, the following also got the call: David Brekalo with Slovenia, Pedro Gallese and Wilder Cartagena for Peru, Dagur Dan Thorhallsson for Iceland, and Favian Loyola for Chile’s U-20 squad. All we can hope for is they all stay healthy and in form. Orlando City’s next opponent, Atlanta United, also had several players called up.

The NWSL Playoffs Continue

The Orlando Pride will face the fourth-place Kansas City Current this weekend after decimating the Chicago Red Stars Friday. There’s been a lot of drama between these two clubs, making this an intriguing semifinal match. The other match sees the second-place Washington Spirit take on third-place NJ/NY Gotham FC. While we get to enjoy seeing the Pride continue their NWSL playoff run, many clubs are now watching from home and working on next season’s campaign.

NWSL Award Voting Open

The NWSL has opened the “fans voting round” for its 2024 end-of-season awards. There are several Pride players who were named finalists, including Barbra Banda, Marta, Emily Sams, Kylie Strom, and Anna Moorhouse. Of course, Seb Hines is up for NWSL Coach of the Year in what should be a foregone conclusion. That doesn’t mean you shouldn’t get out there and submit your vote here. This is your chance to make a difference for Hines and these Pride players who have given so much this season.

Pepi is Ready

The USMNT will play its first competitive match under Mauricio Pochettino against Jamaica Thursday night in the first leg of a Concacaf Nations League quarterfinal series. The U.S. doesn’t have a ton of options at forward, meaning Ricardo Pepi will likely get the start. The PSV striker said he feels he’s “ready to be the man.” It’s been years since anyone locked down the starting role up top for the USMNT. Let’s hope that Pepi is indeed ready.

Free Kicks

  • In unsurprising news, Charlotte FC’s Kristijan Kahlina was named 2024 MLS Goalkeeper of the Year. Orlando fans are all too familiar with how good Kahlina is in goal. Honestly, Khalina is a very deserving winner.
  • England’s squad will look very different this international window with eight players out due to injury, including Bukayo Saka and Cole Palmer.
  • The UScpMNT match scheduled for today has been postponed due to inclement weather.
  • Coventry City has its eye on Frank Lampard as a possible replacement for Mark Robins as manager.
  • We have unfortunately seen the last of Memphis 901 FC. It is a sad day, as we’re unlikely to see such a cool name with whatever Santa Barbara comes up with.
  • We’re sad to share that FC Cincinnati’s Marco Angulo passed away as a result of injuries sustained in a car accident. Our thoughts are with his family, friends, and teammates.
  • Finally, I leave you with Ally Watt solving a Rubik’s Cube.

That will do it for today. Check back as we get you ready for the Pride’s playoff match against the Kansas City Current. Vamos Orlando!

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Lion Links

Lion Links: 11/12/24

Examining Orlando City’s playoff path, what to watch in the Concacaf Nations League, Lily Yohannes declares for the U.S., and more.

Published

2 days ago

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November 12, 2024

By

Image courtesy of Orlando City / Jeremy Reper

Happy Tuesday, everyone! The weekend couldn’t have gone much better for Orlando’s soccer teams, as both Orlando City and the Orlando Pride advanced after their respective playoff games, with the Pride dominating Chicago and the Lions getting a late, dramatic equalizer before winning the penalty shootout. The Pride will return to action Sunday against the Kansas City Current, while the Lions have a slightly longer layoff before they take on Atlanta United. As usual, we have plenty to discuss this morning, so let’s get into the links.

Orlando City’s Playoff Path

It was a wild weekend for the MLS playoffs as far as the Eastern Conference was concerned, and a slew of upsets suddenly means that the path to the MLS Cup final in the Eastern Conference goes through Orlando. The Lions are the highest remaining seed in the East, and not only will they host Atlanta Nov. 24, but they would also host the Eastern Conference final, should they come out victorious. Oscar Pareja spoke after the game about not wanting the victory over Charlotte FC to be the end of the playoff journey, and says the team intends to chase the MLS Cup. If Orlando does make it that far, the team wouldn’t be likely to host the match, as it would require Minnesota United to come out of the Western Conference in order for the final to be held in Orlando. Stranger things have happened though.

What to Watch For With the USMNT

It seems like we just had an international break, but here we are again with two more United States Men’s National Team games on the docket. These are two important games, as the USMNT squares off against Jamaica in the Concacaf Nations League quarterfinals. Besides the obvious chance to advance to the semifinals, there are plenty of other storylines to keep an eye on. With Josh Sargent and Folarin Balogun both absent due to injury, can Ricardo Pepi seize an opportunity to lay claim to the starting striker role? What sort of impacts can Brendan Aaronson and Weston McKennie have in the midst of good starts to the season for their clubs? Last, but certainly not least, is Christian Pulisic, who has had a fantastic start to the season and will have many eyes on him in the first competitive matches under Mauricio Pochettino.

Lily Yohannes Chooses the United States

The United States Women’s National Team has landed a great young talent, as Lily Yohannes announced on Monday that she has chosen to represent the U.S. over the Netherlands. While she was born in Virginia, Yohannes has lived abroad since the age of 10, making her eligible to play for either country. However, she stated that with the United States being her country of birth, as well as where her extended family lives, she decided to commit to representing Emma Hayes’ team. Yohannes made her debut for Ajax’s senior side in November of last year, and has seven goals in 40 appearances for the Dutch team.

Transfer Rumor Roundup

As always, the transfer rumor mill continues to turn, which means we have plenty of things to catch up on. We start with Major League Soccer itself, where FC Cincinnati’s Luciano Acosta has said he may have played his final game for the club. He cited frustration with falling short of silverware as a possible reason for wanting to move on, so he may change his mind once the sting has faded more. Moving to Spain, Barcelona is reportedly monitoring Eintracht Frankfurt’s Omar Marmoush as an option to replace the aging Robert Lewandowski. Arsenal and Manchester United are said to be interested in Leroy Sane, and will pursue him hard if contract talks with Bayern Munich don’t progress well.

Free Kicks

  • NWSL Commissioner Jessica Berman had some friendly words for the Orlando Pride.

That does it for me today. Vamos Orlando!

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