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Predictions for Orlando City’s Remaining Games of the 2024 Season

A deep dive into Orlando City’s final seven opponents and predictions on the Lions will do in those matchups.

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1 year ago

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

We do not often write about National Football League Commissioner Roger Goodell at The Mane Land, but it is clear that the NFL was intentional about scheduling its season-opening weekend on a bye weekend for Orlando City, lest they lose all of their viewers to watching the team that you know and I know is the most exciting team to watch in all of sports. Fittingly for the city of Orlando, that excitement has been similar to a roller coaster this season, with ups and downs throughout, but with positive results in eight of the last 10 matches and wins in six of those matches, the team is clearly now heading in the right direction. The question remains whether the Lions will continue this climb or if they are just leading up to a sudden drop.

The Lions have seven games remaining on their regular-reason schedule, and at a quick glance it would appear like they have an excellent chance of continuing their hot streak and picking up points in more than half of those games. The next games in order are:

  • Home vs. New England (1.04 points/game this season, 23rd in MLS)
  • Home vs. Charlotte (1.41, 14th)
  • At Columbus (1.96, second)
  • At Dallas (1.22, 18th)
  • Home vs. Philadelphia (1.11, 21st)
  • At Cincinnati (1.89, fourth)
  • Home vs. Atlanta (1.15, 20th)

As Orlando City is currently on a pace of 1.37 points per game, which is 15th in MLS, the Lions are playing four teams with lower points per game this season, one that is nearly the same, and two that have been performing better thus far this season.

In looking a little deeper at the seven remaining opponents, however, that schedule actually starts to look a little more difficult. If you look at the results from the most recent five matches instead of the season as a whole, Orlando City is playing four teams (Columbus, Dallas, Philadelphia, Atlanta) that are performing better recently than they had been for all games prior to their most recent five games. Two of those teams (Columbus and Dallas) are tied with Orlando City for second in MLS, with 10 points from their last five games. Unfortunately for Orlando City, both of those games against Columbus and Dallas will be on the road, but then again, Orlando’s road record of 6-3-5 (1.50 points/game) is better than its home record of 4-4-5 (1.23 points/game), so perhaps that is actually fortunate.

In looking even deeper, well, this chart will help show how all over the place Orlando City’s opponents really are when you look at their full season performance and also their more recent performance. (PPG = points per game and GDG = goal differential per game, which I needed to use instead of just plain goal differential, since the teams have not all played the same amount of games.)

New England’s -0.84 under Full Season GDG means that for the full season the Revolution have been losing games by an average of 0.84 goals per game.

A few takeaways from this chart:

  • I mentioned earlier that four teams are getting better results recently than they had been before the most recent five matches, but Dallas and Philadelphia are both playing significantly better than they had before, while Atlanta and Columbus are only playing slightly better than they had before.
  • That said, Columbus was playing really well and is still playing really well, so that lack of improvement is relative, since the Crew did not have a lot of room to improve and yet they still did.
  • Cincinnati is a stunning case, since the club had only lost four of its first 22 matches before losing four of its next five. And in those four losses, Cincinnati was outscored 9-2, leading to that big drop in GDG. Even with that swoon, Cincinnati is still ranked fourth overall in MLS and third in the Eastern Conference in points per game.
  • Lastly, the section on the far right shows how each team has performed at home or on the road this season. The Match Location is for Orlando City, and the Opponent PPG shows, for example, that Philadelphia averages 1.31 points on the road this season. Orlando City has a better location-based PPG than its opponent in only three (New England, Charlotte, Atlanta) of the final seven games.

During each of the last three seasons, Orlando City earned at least 48 points during the regular season, and to make it four years in a row, the Lions will need to pick up at least 11 points from these final seven games. Here are the possible points the Lions can still earn, based on the number of wins they could have in those seven games:

Just looking at the math, it is possible that they could get to 11 points with only two wins, but that would require no losses in the other five games, and I think that is asking a lot for a team that has lost 37% of its games thus far this season. I think the most likely way that Orlando City gets to at least 11 points is three wins and two draws or four wins and any number of draws, so we need to rank the final seven opponents based on the likelihood of an Orlando City win.

Before we do that, however, we should note that Orlando City’s only MLS loss in its last seven MLS matches was at Sporting Kansas City, a team that is among the hottest in MLS, with results in four of its last five matches. Even though SKC lost, it played some close matches with several of the top teams in the league (LA Galaxy, Real Salt Lake, Colorado, Vancouver) before that. Perhaps Orlando City’s loss away in Kansas City was not as bad as it seemed at the time.

No, that loss still stunk.

Coming back to our ranking, I got out my mathematics degree, shined it up, blew it a kiss, and then put together a very fancy (read: very simple) algorithm using standard deviations to determine the order of most to least likely for Orlando City to get a win, with a formula that went:

That formula produced the list below, ranked in order of the upcoming schedule, accompanied by the team’s rank in order of likelihood of Orlando City getting a win (higher numbers mean Orlando City is more likely to win):

Whether this algorithm is correct or not, there is no doubt that the next two games for Orlando City are absolutely critical in both the made-up pursuit of a fourth straight season of at least 48 points and the more important push to secure a playoff berth and the opportunity to win MLS Cup. The next game (New England) is always the most important game, and after that, Orlando City could have an opportunity to pass Charlotte and move up the table, depending on how the Lions do against New England and how Charlotte does in its Sept. 14 match against CF Montréal. Both matches are at home, and despite their poor overall home record the Lions have three wins and one draw in their last four home MLS games. It would be quite nice to extend that to five wins in their last six before going on the road to Columbus.

I am going to predict that Orlando City does indeed win against New England and Charlotte, loses on the road at Columbus, ties at Dallas, ties Philadelphia, loses at Cincinnati, and closes with a home win over Atlanta for a final record of 3-2-2 during those last seven matches. The mathematically inclined will quickly recognize that a 3-2-2 record adds up to the 11 points the Lions needed to get to 48 points, but leaves them short of getting to 50 for the third time in the last four years. They would secure a playoff position, but they would also be on the road for the first game, and a third game as well if the series goes to three games.

While the team has definitely been playing a lot better as of late, I think this last seven-match run is a difficult one and the Lions will have to really push to do even as well as I predicted, which is only earning 11 of a possible 21 points. They have it in them to make a run. Let’s hope they come back from this bye week ready to roar and rub my prediction right in my face.

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2025 Orlando City Season in Review: Marco Pasalic

The Croatian international had big shoes to fill at right wing but he provided offense to offset the off-season loss of Facundo Torres.

Published

16 hours ago

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November 14, 2025

By

Image of Marco Pasalic saluting the fans.
Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

Orlando City signed winger Marco Pasalic to a Designated Player contract on Feb. 5, just weeks ahead of the 2025 season. The Lions needed to try to replace the considerable production of their all-time leading scorer, Facundo Torres, who transferred to Brazilian side Palmeiras in the off-season. The 25-year-old Uruguayan had not only been a fan favorite, but he’d been the club’s most dangerous attacking threat.

It was difficult to lose a young player to a club that wasn’t in one of the world’s big four leagues, but Luiz Muzzi and Ricardo Moreira did well to locate his replacement in Croatia. Pasalic hit the ground running, scoring a brace in the first match of the season and making an instant impact. Throughout his first season in Orlando, Pasalic did everything in his power to ease the sting Orlando City fans were experiencing after losing Torres to Palmeiras.

Let’s look back to see how the Croatian international performed during his first season in the City Beautiful.

Statistical Breakdown

Pasalic played in all four competitions in which the Lions took part in 2025 — MLS regular season, MLS playoffs, U.S. Open Cup, and Leagues Cup.

The winger showed good durability, appearing in 33 of Orlando City’s 34 regular-season matches, starting 32 and playing 2,593 minutes, which placed him fifth on the club behind only goalkeeper Pedro Gallese, forward Martin Ojeda, and the starting center back duo of Rodrigo Schlegel and Robin Jansson. He scored 12 goals — second on the team only to Ojeda’s 16 — and added five assists (fifth most on the club). Pasalic put 41 of his 103 shots on target, surprisingly attempting only one headed shot all season, with 93 shots taken with his “weapon” of a left foot and eight shots with his right. The Croatian connected on 80% of his passes with 44 key passes, eight successful crosses, and 56 accurate long balls. Pasalic recorded 25 tackles, 15 interceptions, and 22 clearances on the defensive end, but did not block a shot. He committed 20 fouls, drew 19 on the competition, and was shown three yellow cards.

In Orlando City’s lone playoff game, Pasalic started and played 69 minutes without a goal contribution, putting his only shot attempt on target. It wasn’t a great passing night for Pasalic, who only connected on 75% of his 16 attempts, although he created two chances with key passes and was accurate on two of his three long balls. He was, however, unsuccessful at finding the target on any of his four crosses. He contributed a tackle and a clearance on the defensive end, did not commit a foul, drew one foul on the opposition, and was not booked.

In the U.S. Open Cup, Pasalic made one appearance — a start on May 21 against Nashville — and played all 90 minutes, scoring the opening goal of the game in the 17th minute. It was a screamer.

Pasalic also set up Ramiro Enrique’s goal to add an assist to go with his goal. He put one of his three shots on target in the match and his assist was one of his three key passes in the game. He missed the mark on both of his crosses but completed both of his long balls en route to a 91% passing rate on 33 attempts. Defensively, Pasalic registered just two ball recoveries but no other stats. He did not commit a foul, but he drew one on Nashville, and he was not booked.

In Leagues Cup play, Pasalic appeared in all six of Orlando City’s matches in 2025, starting five, and playing 420 minutes and contributing two goals but no assists. He put seven of his 14 shots on target and completed 79.6% of his 147 passes including three key passes. His two crosses were both unsuccessful, but he connected on 15 of his 18 long balls (83.3%). Defensively, Pasalic contributed three tackles and nine clearances but no interceptions or blocks. He committed two fouls and drew three on his opponents, and he was not booked in the competition.

Best Game

Pasalic had several great games throughout his first season in Orlando, with his brace in the opener, a strong overall performance in the aforementioned U.S. Open Cup match, and a great night with a goal and an assist against Atlanta United in Orlando’s 3-0 home win on April 26. But his best overall match probably occurred when the Lions beat St. Louis City SC 4-2 on June 25. Pasalic notched a brace to help Orlando City get the win and was selected our Man of the Match with a season-high match rating of 8.5 out of 10.

The Croatian didn’t get the scoring party started, but he did double the lead to 2-0 just two minutes after Ramiro Enrique’s opening goal. Pasalic brought the ball forward down the middle of the pitch with speed. He made a sick move to lose Akil Watts and created space for himself to fire a shot from outside the box that tucked just inside the right post beyond the diving save attempt by Roman Burki in the ninth minute.

Despite the dream start, St. Louis City cut what had been a 3-0 lead to just a one-goal advantage with two goals in the final minutes of the first half, giving the Lions plenty to do on the road in the second half. The game remained 3-2 until the 82nd minute, when Eduard Atuesta brought the ball forward in transition. The midfielder dished it to Pasalic on the right, and the Croatian cut inside, used Jayden Reid as a screen, and blasted a shot past Burki to give the Lions some insurance with his second goal of the night.

In addition to Pasalic’s two goals, the Croatian was simply a threat every time he touched the ball. He fired four shots, putting three on target, and was successful in all three of his dribble attempts, leaving St. Louis City players in his wake. He completed 40 passes at an 83.3% success rate, delivering three key passes and connecting on three of his four long balls. He didn’t have a successful cross, but he tried three of them, which is a higher-than-usual number for the shoot-first winger. Pasalic had four loose-ball recoveries on the defensive end, won four of his seven ground duels (57%), did not commit a foul, and drew one on St. Louis. It was a big performance from the Croatian.

2025 Final Grade

The Mane Land awarded Pasalic a solid composite rating of 7.5 out of 10 for his first season in Orlando. Unlike the talented Torres, Pasalic started scoring early in the season and had it not been for a team-wide power outage down the stretch, he likely would have surpassed Torres’ 2024 totals in the MLS regular season. As it was, he came within two goals and one assist of there being no dropoff from the Uruguayan’s offensive output, and unlike Torres, he was not the club’s primary (or even secondary) penalty taker. In short, Pasalic may not have made Orlando City fans forget the popular Torres, but he provided similar numbers and a more even distribution of his goal contributions. And, while both players are exceedingly one-footed, Pasalic has found workarounds that allow him to use his magical left foot in traffic a bit better than Torres did during his stay in Orlando by way of outside-foot passes that curl like a right-footed pass and an uncanny ability to nutmeg defenders on the sideline to get past.

2026 Outlook

Pasalic is under contract through 2027, but news that German clubs are interested in his services are concerning. If Borussia Monchengladbach or another Bundesliga club makes a serious offer, it’s unlikely that Orlando City can keep the Croatian. While the grass isn’t always greener, and he might not be guaranteed as much playing time, he’d be moving to a more high-profile league, showing what he can do against better competition, and he’d be much closer to home, making for much easier travel for those international call-ups. It really comes down to what kinds of offers come in for the left-footed wonder.

If Orlando City does not get a satisfactory offer, and Pasalic returns for 2026, he will be the starter at right wing. He’ll no doubt see additional adjustments from opposing defenses, but it’s not likely anything he hasn’t seen already. Teams will overplay him to cut inside on his left foot, which is sometimes easier said than done, and they’ll try to pick him up further out from goal, knowing the danger he poses even from 30 yards. However, he’d also be settled into the league after a year of adjustment. He’d know what to expect from the travel, different climates, the culture, and he’ll have a much better understanding of those tasked with marking him. It’s not unreasonable to expect an increase in production.

But the Lions will need to keep the poachers at bay first.

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Lion Links: 11/14/25

Luana signs new contract, Orlando Pride prepare for semifinal, Marta and Jacquie Ovalle nominated for FIFA Marta Award, and more.

Published

20 hours ago

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November 14, 2025

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Image courtesy of Orlando Pride / Jeremy Reper

Happy Friday! The international soccer this week has been pretty nice to watch, with teams all over the world trying to secure a spot in the greatest tournament in sports — the World Cup. The NWSL playoffs return Saturday, making it a nice time to be a soccer fan. I’ll be spending most of the weekend watching soccer and trying to make a pumpkin pie cheesecake. Let’s get to the links!

Orlando Pride Re-Sign Luana

Midfielder Luana has signed a new contract with the Orlando Pride that will last through 2026, with a mutual option for 2027. This news comes after Luana scored her first goal for the Pride one week ago, converting a late penalty kick to seal the win against the Seattle Reign. Luana joined the Pride prior to the 2024 season but missed a majority of that season and the 2025 campaign after being diagnosed with Hodgkin’s lymphoma and undergoing treatment and recovery. The Pride’s midfield is now fairly set for the 2026 season, with Luana, Angelina, Haley McCutcheon, and Viviana Villacorta all under contract.

Orlando Pride Prepare for NWSL Semifinal

The Orlando Pride will host NJ/NY Gotham FC Sunday in the semifinals of this year’s NWSL playoffs. It will be a clash between the two most recent NWSL champions, with Orlando winning last year and Gotham winning in 2024. Orlando will have to find a way to get past 2024 NWSL Goalkeeper of the Year Ann-Katrin Berger, while also keeping Gotham’s many talented attacking players from making too much noise. It will be the last Pride game at Inter&Co Stadium this season, so make sure to get out and support the team for this massive game if able to do so.

Marta and Jacquie Ovalle Nominated for Marta Award

The nominees were revealed for this year’s FIFA Marta award, which celebrates the best goal in women’s soccer, and Orlando Pride teammates Marta and Jacquie Ovalle made the list. I’m not surprised to see Ovalle’s “shrimp” goal that she scored while with Tigres nominated, as I’ve never seen anything quite like it and it took some impressive acrobatic skill.

Marta, who won last year, was nominated this year for her goal against the Kansas City Current on Nov. 17, 2024. She sent a pair of Current defenders sliding with a nice cutback move in the box before dribbling around goalkeeper Almuth Schult and scoring to push the Pride into the NWSL Championship.

American midfielder Ally Sentnor was nominated for her screamer for the U.S. during the SheBelieves Cup. While I think Ovalle’s goal is the best of the bunch, there are some pretty good options from around the world so make sure to check them out and vote!

MLS Officially Changes Competition Calendar

A major shift is coming to MLS, as the league’s MLS Board of Governors voted to change the competition calendar to run from summer to spring like most European leagues. This new format is set to start in the summer of 2027, with the league kicking off near the end of July. Prior to that, there will be a 14-game transition season in 2027 from February to May to determine qualifying for the Concacaf Champions Cup, U.S. Open Cup, and Leagues Cup. This is one of the biggest changes in league history and I’m curious about how jarring the breaks in the winter and summer will end up being. Hopefully the benefits regarding the transfer market pan out though!

MLS Season Pass Will End After 2025

Starting in 2026, MLS games will be part of Apple TV’s streaming service at no additional cost to subscribers. As a result, MLS Season Pass will conclude after this year. It’s pretty great news for fans, especially those of us already paying for an Apple TV subscription. Another part of this news is that an Apple TV subscription will be part of full-season ticket packages in 2026. MLS games have been streamed on MLS Season Pass since 2023 as part of a 10-year broadcasting deal between the league and Apple.

Free Kicks

  • Former Lion Kevin Molino scored a late equalizer in Trinidad & Tobago’s 1-1 draw with Jamaica in World Cup qualifying. Orlando City’s Tyrese Spicer also started in the match and was denied a goal on a great save in the first half by Andre Blake.

That’s everything I have for you all this time around. I hope you all have a fantastic Friday and rest of your weekend!

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2025 Orlando City Season In Review: Robin Jansson

The captain’s play declined slightly, but he was still a first-choice player when healthy.

Published

2 days ago

on

November 13, 2025

By

Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

Orlando City signed Robin Jansson back in early March of 2019, and he has been a starter at center back ever since. There is no question that he is one of the club’s all-time great players, and he is also on the list of all-time fan favorites as well. The team recognized his efforts with a new contract before the 2024 season that went through the 2025 season with a club option for the 2026 season, and as of this writing, we do not know the status of that club option.

Let’s take a look back at the Beefy Swede’s seventh (!) season in purple.

Statistical Breakdown

Jansson’s total games played decreased for the third straight season, partially due to the early playoff exit and also due to a few injuries. When healthy, he started nearly every game though, slotting in as the left center back in Orlando City’s usual back four alignment.

In MLS regular-season play, Jansson appeared in 30 of Orlando’s 34 matches, starting all 30 and playing a total of 2,614 minutes —the fourth-most minutes of any player. He scored one goal, making it four out of the last five seasons that he has scored from his center back position, and added one assist. He attempted seven shots and put four on target. Jansson completed 88% of his passes, including career-high completion percentages on short (96%) and medium (95%) passes, and contributed five key passes. On the defensive side, he compiled 25 tackles, 24 interceptions, 136 clearances, and 20 blocks. He committed 20 fouls and suffered 23, and he received eight yellow cards but no red cards.

Orlando City went with its usual back four in the Eastern Conference wild card game, and even though Jansson was not 100% healthy, he started and went the full 90 minutes. He did not take any shots or contribute to a goal, completing 83% of his passes with no key passes. He added one tackle and three clearances on defense and committed zero fouls while suffering one. He was not booked.

The Beefy Swede only played one game in the U.S. Open Cup, starting against Nashville and playing all 90 minutes. He did not take any shots or record any goal contributions, but he completed 93% of his passes with two key passes. Defensively, he did not have any tackles but tallied six clearances and blocked one shot. He committed three fouls, drew two on the opposition, and was not booked.

Jansson played every minute during the first five Leagues Cup games, starting all five and playing until the final whistle (this will be important later in this paragraph) for a total of 450 minutes. He did not take any shots or have any goal contributions, though he converted his spot kick attempt in the game against Toluca that went to a penalty shootout. Jansson completed 85% of his passes with one key pass. On defense, he contributed one tackle, five interceptions, 21 clearances, and five blocks. He committed one foul but suffered six, and received one yellow card during game action and one red card after the conclusion of the semifinal game against Miami, due to the language he used when talking to the officials. That resulted in a suspension that forced him to miss the road game at the LA Galaxy.

Best Game

While he scored his only goal of the season against New York City FC and chipped in his only assist against Miami, I think Jansson’s best all-around game was in Orlando City’s 3-1 victory over Charlotte on May 14. The big man turned back the clock in this one, leading the team in tackles (4), interceptions (4), and clearances (5), while also recovering four loose balls and blocking a shot. He brought his offensive boots as well, completing a team-leading 72 passes at a 95% completion rate, and going 49-for-52 (94%) on medium and long passes. It was his long ball over the top to Alex Freeman that set up Orlando City’s second goal, and while he did not receive an assist, that goal would not have happened without his inch-perfect 50-yard bomb, which made Freeman look more like his wide receiver dad Antonio as he “caught” a long pass down the sideline. The Beefy Swede was excellent in helping the team secure all three points against Charlotte in a game that took Orlando City’s streak to 10 straight MLS games without a loss.

2025 Final Grade

The Mane Land awarded Jansson a composite rating of 6.5 out of 10 for the 2025 season, which is a decrease from the 7.5 out of 10 that he received in 2024, and tied for the lowest he has ever received from our site (6.5 in 2019, 7 in 2020, 7.5 in 2021, 7 in 2022, and 8 in 2023). Father Time robbed Jansson of somewhere between a quarter-step and half-step during 2025, and with a slight decrease in speed, Jansson stayed home on defense more often, decreasing his progressive carries from seven in 2023 and 2024 to zero in 2025. The captain was still a more-than-capable MLS center back, but there was a slight dip from 2024 to 2025 — something not unique specifically to him — and that is reflected in our grade.

2026 Outlook

As mentioned, the decision on Jansson’s 2026 club option has not been publicly announced, but if he wants to return to Orlando, the Lions will likely do everything they can to make that happen. Jansson is the club’s all-time leader in appearances with 238 and probably would surpass 250 during the initial months of 2026 if he returns, further cementing his status as a club legend.

He may have lost a little of his speed, but as is reflected in our final grade and in positional rankings, like this one from American Soccer Analysis (he ranked 53rd out of 124 qualified center backs), Jansson is still an MLS-caliber center back and would have the inside track on a starting role in 2026.

With several other players out of contract and likely to depart, it is logical that the club would want to keep some stability in the middle of the defense, so the Lions are likely to either trigger his club option or sign him to a new contract — probably a one-year deal with an option for the 2027 season — at a lower salary than his current guaranteed compensation of $996,667. Triggering his club option probably would push his salary above $1,000,000, so I think the club will go the new contract route instead of the club option route since he declined this past season and is in the latter part of his career. I expect him to return though, and to continue to be a fan favorite for his passionate play on defense, great hair, and the leadership he shows during every minute of every game.

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