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Orlando City

Predictions for Orlando City’s Remaining Games of the 2024 Season

A deep dive into Orlando City’s final seven opponents and predictions on the Lions will do in those matchups.

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4 months ago

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

We do not often write about National Football League Commissioner Roger Goodell at The Mane Land, but it is clear that the NFL was intentional about scheduling its season-opening weekend on a bye weekend for Orlando City, lest they lose all of their viewers to watching the team that you know and I know is the most exciting team to watch in all of sports. Fittingly for the city of Orlando, that excitement has been similar to a roller coaster this season, with ups and downs throughout, but with positive results in eight of the last 10 matches and wins in six of those matches, the team is clearly now heading in the right direction. The question remains whether the Lions will continue this climb or if they are just leading up to a sudden drop.

The Lions have seven games remaining on their regular-reason schedule, and at a quick glance it would appear like they have an excellent chance of continuing their hot streak and picking up points in more than half of those games. The next games in order are:

  • Home vs. New England (1.04 points/game this season, 23rd in MLS)
  • Home vs. Charlotte (1.41, 14th)
  • At Columbus (1.96, second)
  • At Dallas (1.22, 18th)
  • Home vs. Philadelphia (1.11, 21st)
  • At Cincinnati (1.89, fourth)
  • Home vs. Atlanta (1.15, 20th)

As Orlando City is currently on a pace of 1.37 points per game, which is 15th in MLS, the Lions are playing four teams with lower points per game this season, one that is nearly the same, and two that have been performing better thus far this season.

In looking a little deeper at the seven remaining opponents, however, that schedule actually starts to look a little more difficult. If you look at the results from the most recent five matches instead of the season as a whole, Orlando City is playing four teams (Columbus, Dallas, Philadelphia, Atlanta) that are performing better recently than they had been for all games prior to their most recent five games. Two of those teams (Columbus and Dallas) are tied with Orlando City for second in MLS, with 10 points from their last five games. Unfortunately for Orlando City, both of those games against Columbus and Dallas will be on the road, but then again, Orlando’s road record of 6-3-5 (1.50 points/game) is better than its home record of 4-4-5 (1.23 points/game), so perhaps that is actually fortunate.

In looking even deeper, well, this chart will help show how all over the place Orlando City’s opponents really are when you look at their full season performance and also their more recent performance. (PPG = points per game and GDG = goal differential per game, which I needed to use instead of just plain goal differential, since the teams have not all played the same amount of games.)

New England’s -0.84 under Full Season GDG means that for the full season the Revolution have been losing games by an average of 0.84 goals per game.

A few takeaways from this chart:

  • I mentioned earlier that four teams are getting better results recently than they had been before the most recent five matches, but Dallas and Philadelphia are both playing significantly better than they had before, while Atlanta and Columbus are only playing slightly better than they had before.
  • That said, Columbus was playing really well and is still playing really well, so that lack of improvement is relative, since the Crew did not have a lot of room to improve and yet they still did.
  • Cincinnati is a stunning case, since the club had only lost four of its first 22 matches before losing four of its next five. And in those four losses, Cincinnati was outscored 9-2, leading to that big drop in GDG. Even with that swoon, Cincinnati is still ranked fourth overall in MLS and third in the Eastern Conference in points per game.
  • Lastly, the section on the far right shows how each team has performed at home or on the road this season. The Match Location is for Orlando City, and the Opponent PPG shows, for example, that Philadelphia averages 1.31 points on the road this season. Orlando City has a better location-based PPG than its opponent in only three (New England, Charlotte, Atlanta) of the final seven games.

During each of the last three seasons, Orlando City earned at least 48 points during the regular season, and to make it four years in a row, the Lions will need to pick up at least 11 points from these final seven games. Here are the possible points the Lions can still earn, based on the number of wins they could have in those seven games:

Just looking at the math, it is possible that they could get to 11 points with only two wins, but that would require no losses in the other five games, and I think that is asking a lot for a team that has lost 37% of its games thus far this season. I think the most likely way that Orlando City gets to at least 11 points is three wins and two draws or four wins and any number of draws, so we need to rank the final seven opponents based on the likelihood of an Orlando City win.

Before we do that, however, we should note that Orlando City’s only MLS loss in its last seven MLS matches was at Sporting Kansas City, a team that is among the hottest in MLS, with results in four of its last five matches. Even though SKC lost, it played some close matches with several of the top teams in the league (LA Galaxy, Real Salt Lake, Colorado, Vancouver) before that. Perhaps Orlando City’s loss away in Kansas City was not as bad as it seemed at the time.

No, that loss still stunk.

Coming back to our ranking, I got out my mathematics degree, shined it up, blew it a kiss, and then put together a very fancy (read: very simple) algorithm using standard deviations to determine the order of most to least likely for Orlando City to get a win, with a formula that went:

That formula produced the list below, ranked in order of the upcoming schedule, accompanied by the team’s rank in order of likelihood of Orlando City getting a win (higher numbers mean Orlando City is more likely to win):

Whether this algorithm is correct or not, there is no doubt that the next two games for Orlando City are absolutely critical in both the made-up pursuit of a fourth straight season of at least 48 points and the more important push to secure a playoff berth and the opportunity to win MLS Cup. The next game (New England) is always the most important game, and after that, Orlando City could have an opportunity to pass Charlotte and move up the table, depending on how the Lions do against New England and how Charlotte does in its Sept. 14 match against CF Montréal. Both matches are at home, and despite their poor overall home record the Lions have three wins and one draw in their last four home MLS games. It would be quite nice to extend that to five wins in their last six before going on the road to Columbus.

I am going to predict that Orlando City does indeed win against New England and Charlotte, loses on the road at Columbus, ties at Dallas, ties Philadelphia, loses at Cincinnati, and closes with a home win over Atlanta for a final record of 3-2-2 during those last seven matches. The mathematically inclined will quickly recognize that a 3-2-2 record adds up to the 11 points the Lions needed to get to 48 points, but leaves them short of getting to 50 for the third time in the last four years. They would secure a playoff position, but they would also be on the road for the first game, and a third game as well if the series goes to three games.

While the team has definitely been playing a lot better as of late, I think this last seven-match run is a difficult one and the Lions will have to really push to do even as well as I predicted, which is only earning 11 of a possible 21 points. They have it in them to make a run. Let’s hope they come back from this bye week ready to roar and rub my prediction right in my face.

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Orlando City

Orlando City Trades Goalkeeper Mason Stajduhar to Real Salt Lake

The Homegrown goalkeeper and longest-tenured Lion is on his way to Utah in exchange for some GAM.

Published

49 minutes ago

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January 15, 2025

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

Well, this wasn’t the transfer news we were looking for out of Orlando City. The club announced today that Homegrown goalkeeper Mason Stajduhar is on his way to Real Salt Lake in exchange for $50,000 in 2025 General Allocation Money (GAM). RSL is also sending Orlando City its natural second-round pick in the 2026 MLS SuperDraft in the deal. If Stajduhar meets certain performance metrics, the deal could bring in up to $150,000 in additional GAM. Stajduhar’s trade to Real Salt Lake ends the longest continuous career in Orlando City’s history.

“Mason has been a part of this club since the early days and, like our club, has grown greatly over those years,” said Orlando City Executive Vice President of Soccer Operations and General Manager Luiz Muzzi said in a club press release. “We want to thank him for his dedication over these last 10 years and, more importantly, for his trust in us and in the development pathway that we have here in Orlando. We wish him the best moving forward in his career.”

Stajduhar, 27, was signed as the club’s fourth-ever Homegrown Player on Nov. 9, 2015, joining the first team right after the team’s inaugural MLS season out of the U.S. Soccer Development Program. He had previously appeared with the club’s U-16, U-18 and U-23 academy teams over two seasons prior to signing his Homegrown Player contract. He was named to the U-18 USSDA Best XI team by U.S. Soccer for his 2015 season. The club initially declined Stajduhar’s option after the 2019 season but signed a new one-year deal on Nov. 27, 2019, ahead of 2020. The deal included options for additional seasons. He was then loaned to New York City FC as an emergency backup for the 2020 Concacaf Champions League game at Exploria Stadium in Orlando, dressing as the backup to Luis Barraza in a 4-0 loss to Tigres out of Liga MX.

Following the 2021 season, in which he saw his role as the primary backup to Pedro Gallese begin to develop, Stajduhar had his contract option exercised to keep him on the roster through 2022. He then inked a new three-year contract with the club in June of that year designed to keep him in purple and gold through at least 2025, with a club option for 2026. 

Stajduhar did not appear in an MLS match until the 2021 season after loan stints to Louisville City (during which he did not play) and the Tulsa Roughnecks, with whom he made his professional debut on March 29, 2019 in a 2-1 win over the Rio Grande Valley Toros. The delay in his debut was due in large part to his 2017 cancer diagnosis. Stajduhar underwent treatment for Localized Ewing Sarcoma, a form of bone cancer, which put his soccer career on hold through the 2018 season.

His first start and MLS debut came in a 3-2 comeback home win over Atlanta United on July 30, 2021. Stajduhar could hardly be blamed for the Lions falling behind 1-0 just 47 seconds into the game on a cannon shot by Josef Martinez off the right post and in or the Marcelino Moreno Goal of the Week candidate-type shot in the 66th minute. Nani’s 87th-minute goal gave Stajduhar his first win six seasons into his pro career.

The native of Salem, MA, finishes his Orlando City career with 22 starts, 65 saves, nine wins, and three shutouts. He also became the first goalkeeper for the Lions to record an assist, notching a helper with a well-placed long ball to set up Duncan McGuire’s wondergoal on the road against Toronto on Oct. 21, 2023. It was the game-winning goal as the Lions claimed a 2-0 victory at BMO Field.

Stajduhar is coming off a productive season, tying his career highs in appearances (5) and starts (5) in 2024, but a short outing in the last of those five resulted in his second-most minutes in regular-season play (389). He made a career-high 21 saves and went 2-2-1 with a clean sheet and a 1.60 goals-against average. He was playing some of his best soccer as a professional, but his final season in purple came to an end due to a nasty injury he sustained on June 28, 2024 at New York City FC in a 4-2 loss, although the score was secondary to what happened in the 17th minute.

On an obviously offside play, the assistant referee kept his flag down, as is customary in the age of video review. However, because the play was still live, Stajduhar came charging out to try to prevent a breakaway by Malachi Jones. The two players collided heavily as they met at the ball. Both had their season end in that moment, requiring surgery to repair the broken tibias and fibulas of both men. Stajduhar took the loss, although the score was only 1-0 at the time he departed and was replaced by Javier Otero, who made his MLS debut.

For his 2024 season, The Mane Land staff gave Stajduhar a 7 out of 10 rating — his highest end-of-season grade in his time in Orlando.

The goalkeeper leaves after making a total of 22 starts for the Lions (16 in the regular season), making 65 saves, winning nine matches in all competitions, and keeping three clean sheets.

What It Means for Orlando City

Stajduhar’s departure opens the door for fellow Homegrown Player Otero to become the primary backup. Otero, 22, signed as a Homegrown Player on July 10, 2023, after starring in MLS NEXT Pro for OCB. The Venezuelan international, who has been called up by his national team for Saturday’s friendly against the United States, dressed every game for Orlando City following Stajduhar’s season-ending injury, backing up Pedro Gallese.

Unless Orlando brings in a new goalkeeper, Otero will be Gallese’s primary backup in 2025. Depth behind Otero is a bit thin. After last season, the club parted ways with Carlos Mercado, who was the primary starter for Orlando City B in 2024. It seems likely that Orlando City will add a goalkeeper, but whether that player is in front of or behind Otero in the pecking order remains to be seen, and that battle will likely have to take place in training.

The loss of Stajduhar will no doubt be a blow to fans who have become fond of the Homegrown over the years, as he has managed to stick around through multiple coaches. He has provided some great moments for the club — including winning a penalty shootout against Inter Miami with a save against Bryce Duke as part of the club’s 2022 U.S. Open Cup championship run — overcame a deadly disease, grew up from a teenager into a young man before our eyes, and even proposed to his girlfriend (now wife) on the pitch after helping Orlando City beat the Philadelphia 2-1 at home in U.S. Open Cup play on May 10, 2022.

Photo of Mason Stajduhar in uniform, proposing to his girlfriend on the pitch at Exploria Stadium.
Image courtesy of Orlando City SC

The sentimental attachment aside, the move simply means Orlando City will need a depth goalkeeper — one the club trusts to go out and win a game (or games) when Gallese isn’t available. Whether that’s Otero or someone else remains to be determined.

With Stajduhar’s departure, Kyle Smith takes over as the longest tenured Orlando City player, having joined the club in December of 2018.

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Lion Links

Lion Links: 1/15/25

Javier Otero called up, Sofia Manner moves on, MLS roster and transfer news, and more.

Published

10 hours ago

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January 15, 2025

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

Welcome to Wednesday, Mane Landers. It may not feel like it yet, but the new season is just around the corner. The Lions have started preseason training, the Orlando Pride are making roster moves, and you can just about see the possibilities. There’s still a chill in the air, but my heart warms in anticipation. Let’s get to the links.

Otero Called Up

Orlando City SC backup goalkeeper Javier Otero was called up by Venezuela for the upcoming friendly against the USMNT at Chase Stadium in Ft. Lauderdale. The match will take place Saturday, Jan. 18 at 3 p.m. Representing your country is always a privilege, and fortunately for Otero, this call-up won’t necessitate a long trip. We wish Otero good luck and hope for an injury-free trip.

Pride Transfer Goalkeeper Sofia Manner

Sofia Manner’s time in Orlando is done. The goalkeeper is headed to AFC Toronto of Canada’s top flight, the Northern Super League for an undisclosed transfer fee. When Manner was brought in she was expected to compete for the starting role. Given that Anna Moorhouse is not going anywhere, it is not unexpected for Manner to want to go someplace where she can get more playing time. The Pride still have McKinley Crone and Kat Asman behind Moorhouse on the bench.

More on New MLS Roster Rules; Transfer News

Major League Soccer officially announced the roster rule changes for 2025. We highlighted some of those changes in Tuesday’s Lion Links. One other interesting rule makes Off-Roster Homegrown Players eligible to appear in up to six MLS league matches along with unlimited first-team appearances in Cup competitions.

We’re still waiting on some off-season signings from Orlando City, but there’s also still plenty of time. Here are the important dates to know around the MLS transfer window. Other clubs are doing some business. The New England Revolution have signed free agent defender Wyatt Omsberg, and D.C. United acquired midfielder Randall Leal off waivers. San Diego FC is reportedly close to signing USMNT midfielder Luca de la Torre on loan from La Liga side Celta de Vigo.

NASL Antitrust Trial Update

The NASL antitrust case against U.S. Soccer heads to trial this week. MLS is also a co-defendant with U.S. Soccer. The NASL claims that U.S. Soccer and MLS conspired to keep the league from competing in either the Division 1 or Division 2 level of professional soccer. The trial is expected to last a few weeks with as much as $500 million at stake.

Free Kicks

  • The Orlando Pride are taking donations this Thursday and Friday for those in need in the greater Los Angeles area affected by the devastating fires.

That will do it for today, though I also encourage you to listen to the latest episode of SkoPurp Soccer: An Orlando Pride PawedCast. We interviewed soon-to-be-former senior director of communications for both Orlando City and the Orlando Pride, Jackie Maynard. Jackie has been with the club for nine years, and she has made our job here at The Mane Land much easier with her professionalism and generosity. We will miss her as she moves on to her next adventure. Vamos Orlando!

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Lion Links

Lion Links: 1/14/25

Orlando City begins preseason, Orlando Pride sign defender Zara Chavoshi, MLS transfer roundup, and more.

Published

1 day ago

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January 14, 2025

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

Happy Tuesday, everyone! It’s been a busy few days for me and sadly I won’t be getting much of a break as my work schedule continues to be packed this week. As is always the case, we have plenty of things to talk through this morning, so let’s jump into today’s links.

Orlando City Opens Preseason

It seems like the 2024 season just came to a close, but Orlando City had its first day of preseason training on Monday. The Lions didn’t quite have everyone in attendance, as Shak Mohammed, Jack Lynn, and Ivan Angulo were not present, while Duncan McGuire and Mason Stajduhar trained off to the side. It was a good first day back though, as the team got its first taste of life without Facundo Torres. One of the big talking points of this preseason will be how the team replaces Facu, with the upcoming preseason games set to evaluate where the team stands.

Orlando Pride Sign Zara Chavoshi

The Orlando Pride announced Monday that the team has signed defender Zara Chavoshi to a one-year contract. The 22-year-old spent the last four years with Wake Forest, where she played both center back and right back for the Demon Deacons. She helped the team advance to the championship of the NCAA College Cup, where the team fell to North Carolina. While she may not play too much during the 2025 season, this is a signing that should provide solid defensive depth while the team evaluates whether or not to award her a longer deal in the future.

MLS Transfer Roundup

Monday saw a slew of MLS teams not named Orlando City making transfer moves, and that means we have a lot to catch up on. We start with confirmation that the San Jose Earthquakes have signed Josef Martinez. Sporting Kansas City decided to continue the trend of signing forwards, as it announced the acquisition of free agent striker Mason Toye, who most recently played for the Portland Timbers. San Diego FC has signed midfielder Onni Valakari on loan from Pafos FC of the Cypriot first division. LAFC has announced the signing of midfielder Odin Thiago Holm on loan from Celtic. Finally, Toronto FC has sold winger Thiago Andrade to Cerezo Osaka of the J1 League.

Americans in Midweek Action

There are a ton of American players who will be taking part in games this week, and there are some good matchups to look forward to. Things get going today as Christian Pulisic, Yunus Musah and AC Milan face Como in Serie A play, while Weston McKennie, Tim Weah, and Juventus travel to take on a strong Atalanta side. Tomorrow has Chris Richards, Matt Turner, and Crystal Palace taking on Leicester City in the Premier League, while Johnny Cardoso and Real Betis have a tough Copa del Rey test against Barcelona. Luca de la Torre and Celta Vigo will then have a similarly tough task on Thursday when they face Real Madrid in the Copa del Rey. Things wrap up on Friday when Gio Reyna, Cole Campbell, and Borussia Dortmund hit the road to play Nathaniel Brown and Eintracht Frankfurt in Bundesliga play.

Philadelphia Union Hit with Transfer Ban

The Philadelphia Union are currently on FIFA’s transfer ban list (paywall) handed down from FIFA — with the club currently unable to register new players for the next three transfer windows. The issue is reportedly linked to the 2022 signing of Venezuelan striker Jose Riasco. The Union owed $700 to Mineros de Guayana — Riasco’s boyhood club, as part of the sell-on percentage it was owed due to developing him. The Union had a difficult time finding a way to pay the club, and the missing money was reported to FIFA. While the Union have been trying to get the issue cleared up since December, they are not the only team dealing with a ban, so it’s uncertain how long it will take to resolve.

https://twitter.com/JoserNunez91/status/1878820472110084600

Free Kicks

  • Check out some of the views from Orlando City’s first day of preseason training.
https://twitter.com/OrlandoCitySC/status/1878914287907086415
https://twitter.com/OrlandoCitySC/status/1878849573680275609
  • MLS has reportedly instituted a cash-based internal trade system which will start immediately.
https://twitter.com/tombogert/status/1878934350596882898

That’s all I have for you this morning. Vamos Orlando!

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