Connect with us

Orlando City

Predictions for Orlando City’s Remaining Games of the 2024 Season

A deep dive into Orlando City’s final seven opponents and predictions on the Lions will do in those matchups.

Published

on

Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

We do not often write about National Football League Commissioner Roger Goodell at The Mane Land, but it is clear that the NFL was intentional about scheduling its season-opening weekend on a bye weekend for Orlando City, lest they lose all of their viewers to watching the team that you know and I know is the most exciting team to watch in all of sports. Fittingly for the city of Orlando, that excitement has been similar to a roller coaster this season, with ups and downs throughout, but with positive results in eight of the last 10 matches and wins in six of those matches, the team is clearly now heading in the right direction. The question remains whether the Lions will continue this climb or if they are just leading up to a sudden drop.

The Lions have seven games remaining on their regular-reason schedule, and at a quick glance it would appear like they have an excellent chance of continuing their hot streak and picking up points in more than half of those games. The next games in order are:

  • Home vs. New England (1.04 points/game this season, 23rd in MLS)
  • Home vs. Charlotte (1.41, 14th)
  • At Columbus (1.96, second)
  • At Dallas (1.22, 18th)
  • Home vs. Philadelphia (1.11, 21st)
  • At Cincinnati (1.89, fourth)
  • Home vs. Atlanta (1.15, 20th)

As Orlando City is currently on a pace of 1.37 points per game, which is 15th in MLS, the Lions are playing four teams with lower points per game this season, one that is nearly the same, and two that have been performing better thus far this season.

In looking a little deeper at the seven remaining opponents, however, that schedule actually starts to look a little more difficult. If you look at the results from the most recent five matches instead of the season as a whole, Orlando City is playing four teams (Columbus, Dallas, Philadelphia, Atlanta) that are performing better recently than they had been for all games prior to their most recent five games. Two of those teams (Columbus and Dallas) are tied with Orlando City for second in MLS, with 10 points from their last five games. Unfortunately for Orlando City, both of those games against Columbus and Dallas will be on the road, but then again, Orlando’s road record of 6-3-5 (1.50 points/game) is better than its home record of 4-4-5 (1.23 points/game), so perhaps that is actually fortunate.

In looking even deeper, well, this chart will help show how all over the place Orlando City’s opponents really are when you look at their full season performance and also their more recent performance. (PPG = points per game and GDG = goal differential per game, which I needed to use instead of just plain goal differential, since the teams have not all played the same amount of games.)

New England’s -0.84 under Full Season GDG means that for the full season the Revolution have been losing games by an average of 0.84 goals per game.

A few takeaways from this chart:

  • I mentioned earlier that four teams are getting better results recently than they had been before the most recent five matches, but Dallas and Philadelphia are both playing significantly better than they had before, while Atlanta and Columbus are only playing slightly better than they had before.
  • That said, Columbus was playing really well and is still playing really well, so that lack of improvement is relative, since the Crew did not have a lot of room to improve and yet they still did.
  • Cincinnati is a stunning case, since the club had only lost four of its first 22 matches before losing four of its next five. And in those four losses, Cincinnati was outscored 9-2, leading to that big drop in GDG. Even with that swoon, Cincinnati is still ranked fourth overall in MLS and third in the Eastern Conference in points per game.
  • Lastly, the section on the far right shows how each team has performed at home or on the road this season. The Match Location is for Orlando City, and the Opponent PPG shows, for example, that Philadelphia averages 1.31 points on the road this season. Orlando City has a better location-based PPG than its opponent in only three (New England, Charlotte, Atlanta) of the final seven games.

During each of the last three seasons, Orlando City earned at least 48 points during the regular season, and to make it four years in a row, the Lions will need to pick up at least 11 points from these final seven games. Here are the possible points the Lions can still earn, based on the number of wins they could have in those seven games:

Just looking at the math, it is possible that they could get to 11 points with only two wins, but that would require no losses in the other five games, and I think that is asking a lot for a team that has lost 37% of its games thus far this season. I think the most likely way that Orlando City gets to at least 11 points is three wins and two draws or four wins and any number of draws, so we need to rank the final seven opponents based on the likelihood of an Orlando City win.

Before we do that, however, we should note that Orlando City’s only MLS loss in its last seven MLS matches was at Sporting Kansas City, a team that is among the hottest in MLS, with results in four of its last five matches. Even though SKC lost, it played some close matches with several of the top teams in the league (LA Galaxy, Real Salt Lake, Colorado, Vancouver) before that. Perhaps Orlando City’s loss away in Kansas City was not as bad as it seemed at the time.

No, that loss still stunk.

Coming back to our ranking, I got out my mathematics degree, shined it up, blew it a kiss, and then put together a very fancy (read: very simple) algorithm using standard deviations to determine the order of most to least likely for Orlando City to get a win, with a formula that went:

That formula produced the list below, ranked in order of the upcoming schedule, accompanied by the team’s rank in order of likelihood of Orlando City getting a win (higher numbers mean Orlando City is more likely to win):

Whether this algorithm is correct or not, there is no doubt that the next two games for Orlando City are absolutely critical in both the made-up pursuit of a fourth straight season of at least 48 points and the more important push to secure a playoff berth and the opportunity to win MLS Cup. The next game (New England) is always the most important game, and after that, Orlando City could have an opportunity to pass Charlotte and move up the table, depending on how the Lions do against New England and how Charlotte does in its Sept. 14 match against CF Montréal. Both matches are at home, and despite their poor overall home record the Lions have three wins and one draw in their last four home MLS games. It would be quite nice to extend that to five wins in their last six before going on the road to Columbus.

I am going to predict that Orlando City does indeed win against New England and Charlotte, loses on the road at Columbus, ties at Dallas, ties Philadelphia, loses at Cincinnati, and closes with a home win over Atlanta for a final record of 3-2-2 during those last seven matches. The mathematically inclined will quickly recognize that a 3-2-2 record adds up to the 11 points the Lions needed to get to 48 points, but leaves them short of getting to 50 for the third time in the last four years. They would secure a playoff position, but they would also be on the road for the first game, and a third game as well if the series goes to three games.

While the team has definitely been playing a lot better as of late, I think this last seven-match run is a difficult one and the Lions will have to really push to do even as well as I predicted, which is only earning 11 of a possible 21 points. They have it in them to make a run. Let’s hope they come back from this bye week ready to roar and rub my prediction right in my face.

Orlando City

Intelligence Report: Orlando City vs. New York City FC

Get up to speed on the Pigeons ahead of Saturday’s game, courtesy of someone who knows them best.

Published

on

Image of Braian Ojeda playing against New York City FC.
Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

Happy Friday, everyone. Orlando City got a week of rest after taking care of business against D.C. United at home, and it returns to the purple palace Saturday night to face a New York City FC team with its back against the wall in the race for a playoff place.

A showdown with the Pigeons means I caught up with Matthew Mangam of New York Soccer Journal. As always, he was helpful in getting us up to speed on NYCFC, and we appreciate his help. I also answered some of his questions about Orlando City, so make sure you check them out over at their place!

Talk me through NYCFC’s summer transfer business. Who’s out, who’s in to replace them, and how have they performed?

Matthew Mangam: NYCFC’s summer business wasn’t anything groundbreaking. The club brought in striker Luighi on loan from SE Palmeiras and got back midfielder/defender James Sands, whose loan with St. Pauli ended. 

Luighi started off well, bagging four goals in his first seven league appearances. But since then, the 20-year-old is on a five-game drought. To his credit, Luighi started only two of his last five games. As for Sands, this is his third stint at NYCFC, so the versatile 26-year-old was welcomed back with open arms. 

The biggest acquisition this summer, though, was Bénie Traoré. The winger joined the club as a Designated Player from FC Basel in Switzerland, but it hasn’t gone well. In 15 league appearances, Traoré has one goal — a penalty kick that hit off the post and went in — and no assists. 

The club’s last move that didn’t happen in the summer surprised everyone: adding free agent Matt Miazga. The veteran defender hasn’t made his debut yet, and I’m honestly not sure when he will. 

New York City has been a wildly different team since the league restarted after the World Cup. What’s happened to cause the change in form?

MM: I honestly don’t know where to start with this one. There’s so much I could say, but if I did then I’d be here all day. I’ll narrow it down to this: NYCFC can’t play a complete 90 minutes. 

NYCFC has conceded six goals in stoppage time this season, is 0-4-12 after falling behind 16 times, and is 4-5-6 at home. So, they can’t hang onto leads — they’ve lost seven points after the 75th minute — they have no come-from-behind wins, and they’re poor at home. 

There are other smaller factors, like injuries, individual mistakes from usually solid players (Matt Freese and Sands), and players struggling, but, as I said, it’s a lot.

The playoffs are still in reach, as NYCFC is just two points out of eighth. What needs to happen in order to get above the line and stay there?

MM: Simply put, NYCFC needs to win all four remaining games, or, at the very least, go 3-1-0. Teams around them, like Toronto, Columbus, and Cincinnati, are picking up wins and building separation, so NYCFC is in a do-or-die situation. 

Getting Alonso Martínez back and starting again is huge, but you can’t expect him to return from a brutal injury and save the team immediately; it’s not fair. Traoré has to step up and show why the club paid DP money for him — one lone goal that, in my opinion, fortunately went in, and no goals from open play is extremely concerning. 

Also, Nico Fernández Mercau hasn’t scored in five matches. He’s getting double- and triple-marked because teams are now well aware of how talented the Argentine is, but he has to find a way back on the scoresheet in this stretch. NYCFC needs him to. So, so badly. 

Will any players be unavailable due to injury, suspension, etc.? What is your projected starting lineup and score prediction?

MM: The only players out are the ones with long-term injuries: Keaton Parks, Kai Trewin, Maxi Moralez, Arnau Farnós, and Drew Baiera. 

Given that NYCFC needs to win or the season is practically over, I expect Head Coach Pascal Jansen to leave it all out there with his best possible lineup:

Matt Freese; Kevin O’Toole, James Sands, Thiago Martins, Tayvon Gray; Andres Perea, Aiden O’Neill; Hannes Wolf, Nico Fernández Mercau, Agustin Ojeda; Alonso Martínez.

I think Nico Fernández Mercau and Alonso Martínez score, but it won’t be enough, as Antoine Griezmann gets a brace and both teams settle for a 2-2 draw. 


Thank you to Matt for his excellent refresher on NYCFC. Vamos Orlando!

Image of the famous "The more you know" graphic from TV.
Continue Reading

Lion Links

Lion Links: 10/23/26

Orlando City prepares for New York City FC, Antoine Griezmann’s impact in Orlando, U.S. will host FIFA Women’s Club World Cup, and more.

Published

on

Image of Antoine Griezmann taking a set piece against Monterrey in Leagues Cup action.
Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

Happy Friday, Mane Landers! It’s been a pretty nice week for me, as I was able to watch all of Slow Horses and finish reading Bad Words by Rioghnach Robinson, both of which were brilliant. Attention now turns to this weekend’s soccer, with both Orlando City and the Orlando Pride playing at home over the next couple of days. Let’s get to the links!

Orlando City Prepares for New York City FC

The Lions host New York City FC on Saturday in one of the marquee matchups in MLS as the regular season nears its conclusion. Plenty has changed since Orlando’s 5-0 loss to NYCFC on March 7. The Lions have clawed their way up the table while the Pigeons have only won once in their past 13 league games. NYCFC enters this match after a 1-1 draw with LAFC that included an equalizer by former Lion Andres Perea to give the team a valuable point amid the playoff race. Nicolas Fernandez Mercau, Luighi, and Benie Traore are all NYCFC players the Lions will need to keep in check, or else it could end up being another high-scoring affair in the City Beautiful.

Antoine Griezmann’s Impact on Orlando’s Offense

Orlando’s wait for Antoine Griezmann to join in the summer has proven to be well worth it, as he’s transformed Orlando’s attack into a force to be reckoned with just as the playoffs near. Although Griezmann wasn’t able to enjoy a fairytale ending with Atletico Madrid by lifting the Copa del Rey or Champions League trophies this year, he’s breathed life into an Orlando side that struggled mightily prior to his arrival. The 35-year-old has recorded 12 goals and seven assists in just 14 appearances this season. Not only has he excelled when it comes to getting the ball in the net, but he’s done well in terms of defensive metrics and intangibles as well.

U.S. Will Host Women’s Club World Cup

The inaugural FIFA Women’s Club World Cup will be held in the U.S. in January of 2028 with the host cities still to be determined. There will be 19 clubs taking part, with Gotham, Arsenal, Barcelona, and Club America having already qualified along with three other teams so far. This tournament is sandwiched between the 2027 Women’s World Cup in Brazil and the 2028 Summer Olympics in Los Angeles, so there’s plenty of exciting women’s soccer to look forward to in the coming years.

U.S. U-17 Women’s National Team Wins at World Cup

The United States U-17 Women’s National Team won 6-1 against Kenya in the group stage of the FIA U-17 Women’s World Cup in Morocco, clinching a spot in the round of 16. Maggie DiMaria scored four goals to bring her total to 10 across just two games. The U.S. will play its final group game on Sunday against China PR, which also won both of its games against Kenya and Samoa to secure a spot in the knockout stage. The winner of this group will get to avoid a match with Spain in the round of 16, so there’s still plenty to play for before the next round gets underway.

Free Kicks

  • The first leg of the Concacaf Nations League quarterfinal between the United States Men’s National Team and Haiti has been moved from Kingston to Miami. Haiti has had to play games outside of the country due to unrest and submitted a request to Concacaf to play in the country of its opponent.
  • American center back Naomi Girma is now dealing with a calf injury that may sideline her for a few weeks according to Chelsea Head Coach Sonia Bompastor. She missed out on the team’s recent friendlies against Spain and may be absent for the Concacaf W Championship quarterfinal against El Salvador next month too.
  • The United States Women’s Cerebral Palsy National Team beat Ireland 15-0 to advance to the IFCPF Women’s World Cup final, which takes place today against Australia. Annie Wickett scored five goals with four other players scoring braces.
  • The San Diego Wave signed defender Mimi Van Zanten to a contract extension through the 2029 season. She’s made 27 appearances for San Diego during her rookie season, helping the club keep pace in the NWSL Shield race.
  • After being stretchered off the field due to a head injury in the U.S. Open Cup final, St. Louis City goalkeeper Roman Burki is alert and in good spirits, according to the club.

That’s all I have for you this time around. I hope you all have a fantastic Friday and rest of your weekend!

Continue Reading

Orlando City

Orlando’s October Outburst Originated Months Ago

Orlando City’s October offensive surge may look like a recent development, but the Lions have been scoring at an impressive rate for months.

Published

on

Image of Antoine Griezmann and Martin Ojeda celebrating a goal during Orlando City's 2-1 friendly win at FC Dallas.
Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Justin Glatt

We do not watch nearly enough Sesame Street in my house, but ever since the summer we say that A is for Antoine when the show discusses the alphabet. Sadly, this replaced A is for Andrew, which is my name, because Antoine Griezmann is more popular than me in my house. I cannot say that I am surprised, but I can say that it hurts just a little bit. More than a little bit.

For the past few years, O has been for Ojeda, as in Martín Ojeda, the man who is now Orlando City’s all-time leading goal scorer. This October, however, O is for offense, as the Lions have scored 10 goals during their three October matches, and that tally leads all of MLS this month. Orlando City’s offense has actually been on point for several months now, as you can see from the chart below (MLS games only):

MonthGoals ScoredGames PlayedGoals per Game
February111.0
March441.0
April751.4
May1152.2
July*522.5
August951.8
September1152.2
October1033.3
Total58301.9
  • *There were no games in June due to the FIFA Men’s World Cup

Griezmann arrived for the July games, but even before that, the offense had started to heat up in May. Although May 1 is an arbitrary date, if we use it as a benchmark it allows us to capture two-thirds of Orlando City’s season, as the first 10 games happened before May and the team has now played 30 in total. Since May, the Lions rank fourth in MLS in goals scored with 46, sitting behind only Miami (54), Philadelphia (52), and St. Louis (47).

In a matter of perfect symmetry, the Lions also rank fourth in goals allowed, and by rank fourth I most certainly do not mean they are among the best defensive teams in the league. Orlando City has allowed 41 goals in the last 20 games, which is an average of more than two goals allowed per game but is also fewer than the 46 the team has scored. I know you already did the math in your head, but 46 – 41 = 5, and that +5 goal differential since May puts the Lions at eighth overall in MLS.

Perhaps we are now in the Inception timeline, because in yet another matter of symmetry Orlando City has also earned the eighth-most points (34) since May 1. This is yet another reminder of how poor of a start the club had this season, with seven losses in those first 10 games.

Since then, however, the 2026 team has performed like the teams of the past few years, but even with a top 10 performance for two-thirds of the season, it has not been able to climb above seventh in the Eastern Conference. This is because four of the five best teams since May are in the same conference, and the ninth and 10th hottest teams, right behind Orlando City, are also in the East. For those of you counting, hopefully in a voice like The Count’s (“Ah, ah,ah!”), that makes seven of the top 10 Eastern teams, so it is no wonder that the Lions are still in a precarious playoff position.

Saturday’s game against New York City FC is, on paper, the easiest of the remaining four games, but then again, the Pigeons did dirty pigeon things all over the Lions in the first matchup, winning that game 5-0. A repeat performance would wipe away the +5 goal differential Orlando has since May, but in addition to the fact that this game will be played on an actual soccer field, there is another pretty major difference between the early season Lions and the current Lions: Griezmann.

The French superstar is up to 12 goals scored and six primary assists (to go with one secondary assist in only 14 MLS games, which is wild), and he and Ojeda make up one of only seven tandems in the league in which both players have at least 12 goals each (Ojeda has 15). Only three tandems have at least 13 goals each (Miami’s Lionel Messi and Luis Suárez, Cincinnati’s Kévin Denkey and Evander, and Nashville’s Sam Surridge and Hany Mukhtar), and with another goal from Griezmann, the two Lions would become the second pair in club history to each score at least 13 goals in a season, joining Facundo Torres and Duncan McGuire in 2023.

Marco Pašalić scored in the most recent game, and both Iván Angulo and Justin Ellis have recorded double-digit goal contributions, so let’s hope the team’s recent offensive onslaught continues, because with all the injuries on the back line and some difficult opponents coming up on the schedule, the Lions will likely need to put up multiple goals if they are going to get results and qualify for the playoffs for the seventh consecutive season.

And considering how poor the start to the season was, if they can orchestrate that it would be outstanding. Let’s gooooooooo.

Vamos Orlando!

Continue Reading

Trending