Orlando City
Predictions for Orlando City’s Remaining Games of the 2024 Season
A deep dive into Orlando City’s final seven opponents and predictions on the Lions will do in those matchups.
We do not often write about National Football League Commissioner Roger Goodell at The Mane Land, but it is clear that the NFL was intentional about scheduling its season-opening weekend on a bye weekend for Orlando City, lest they lose all of their viewers to watching the team that you know and I know is the most exciting team to watch in all of sports. Fittingly for the city of Orlando, that excitement has been similar to a roller coaster this season, with ups and downs throughout, but with positive results in eight of the last 10 matches and wins in six of those matches, the team is clearly now heading in the right direction. The question remains whether the Lions will continue this climb or if they are just leading up to a sudden drop.
The Lions have seven games remaining on their regular-reason schedule, and at a quick glance it would appear like they have an excellent chance of continuing their hot streak and picking up points in more than half of those games. The next games in order are:
- Home vs. New England (1.04 points/game this season, 23rd in MLS)
- Home vs. Charlotte (1.41, 14th)
- At Columbus (1.96, second)
- At Dallas (1.22, 18th)
- Home vs. Philadelphia (1.11, 21st)
- At Cincinnati (1.89, fourth)
- Home vs. Atlanta (1.15, 20th)
As Orlando City is currently on a pace of 1.37 points per game, which is 15th in MLS, the Lions are playing four teams with lower points per game this season, one that is nearly the same, and two that have been performing better thus far this season.
In looking a little deeper at the seven remaining opponents, however, that schedule actually starts to look a little more difficult. If you look at the results from the most recent five matches instead of the season as a whole, Orlando City is playing four teams (Columbus, Dallas, Philadelphia, Atlanta) that are performing better recently than they had been for all games prior to their most recent five games. Two of those teams (Columbus and Dallas) are tied with Orlando City for second in MLS, with 10 points from their last five games. Unfortunately for Orlando City, both of those games against Columbus and Dallas will be on the road, but then again, Orlando’s road record of 6-3-5 (1.50 points/game) is better than its home record of 4-4-5 (1.23 points/game), so perhaps that is actually fortunate.
In looking even deeper, well, this chart will help show how all over the place Orlando City’s opponents really are when you look at their full season performance and also their more recent performance. (PPG = points per game and GDG = goal differential per game, which I needed to use instead of just plain goal differential, since the teams have not all played the same amount of games.)
New England’s -0.84 under Full Season GDG means that for the full season the Revolution have been losing games by an average of 0.84 goals per game.

A few takeaways from this chart:
- I mentioned earlier that four teams are getting better results recently than they had been before the most recent five matches, but Dallas and Philadelphia are both playing significantly better than they had before, while Atlanta and Columbus are only playing slightly better than they had before.
- That said, Columbus was playing really well and is still playing really well, so that lack of improvement is relative, since the Crew did not have a lot of room to improve and yet they still did.
- Cincinnati is a stunning case, since the club had only lost four of its first 22 matches before losing four of its next five. And in those four losses, Cincinnati was outscored 9-2, leading to that big drop in GDG. Even with that swoon, Cincinnati is still ranked fourth overall in MLS and third in the Eastern Conference in points per game.
- Lastly, the section on the far right shows how each team has performed at home or on the road this season. The Match Location is for Orlando City, and the Opponent PPG shows, for example, that Philadelphia averages 1.31 points on the road this season. Orlando City has a better location-based PPG than its opponent in only three (New England, Charlotte, Atlanta) of the final seven games.
During each of the last three seasons, Orlando City earned at least 48 points during the regular season, and to make it four years in a row, the Lions will need to pick up at least 11 points from these final seven games. Here are the possible points the Lions can still earn, based on the number of wins they could have in those seven games:

Just looking at the math, it is possible that they could get to 11 points with only two wins, but that would require no losses in the other five games, and I think that is asking a lot for a team that has lost 37% of its games thus far this season. I think the most likely way that Orlando City gets to at least 11 points is three wins and two draws or four wins and any number of draws, so we need to rank the final seven opponents based on the likelihood of an Orlando City win.
Before we do that, however, we should note that Orlando City’s only MLS loss in its last seven MLS matches was at Sporting Kansas City, a team that is among the hottest in MLS, with results in four of its last five matches. Even though SKC lost, it played some close matches with several of the top teams in the league (LA Galaxy, Real Salt Lake, Colorado, Vancouver) before that. Perhaps Orlando City’s loss away in Kansas City was not as bad as it seemed at the time.
No, that loss still stunk.
Coming back to our ranking, I got out my mathematics degree, shined it up, blew it a kiss, and then put together a very fancy (read: very simple) algorithm using standard deviations to determine the order of most to least likely for Orlando City to get a win, with a formula that went:

That formula produced the list below, ranked in order of the upcoming schedule, accompanied by the team’s rank in order of likelihood of Orlando City getting a win (higher numbers mean Orlando City is more likely to win):

Whether this algorithm is correct or not, there is no doubt that the next two games for Orlando City are absolutely critical in both the made-up pursuit of a fourth straight season of at least 48 points and the more important push to secure a playoff berth and the opportunity to win MLS Cup. The next game (New England) is always the most important game, and after that, Orlando City could have an opportunity to pass Charlotte and move up the table, depending on how the Lions do against New England and how Charlotte does in its Sept. 14 match against CF Montréal. Both matches are at home, and despite their poor overall home record the Lions have three wins and one draw in their last four home MLS games. It would be quite nice to extend that to five wins in their last six before going on the road to Columbus.
I am going to predict that Orlando City does indeed win against New England and Charlotte, loses on the road at Columbus, ties at Dallas, ties Philadelphia, loses at Cincinnati, and closes with a home win over Atlanta for a final record of 3-2-2 during those last seven matches. The mathematically inclined will quickly recognize that a 3-2-2 record adds up to the 11 points the Lions needed to get to 48 points, but leaves them short of getting to 50 for the third time in the last four years. They would secure a playoff position, but they would also be on the road for the first game, and a third game as well if the series goes to three games.
While the team has definitely been playing a lot better as of late, I think this last seven-match run is a difficult one and the Lions will have to really push to do even as well as I predicted, which is only earning 11 of a possible 21 points. They have it in them to make a run. Let’s hope they come back from this bye week ready to roar and rub my prediction right in my face.
Orlando City
Flashback Friday: June 3, 2023 vs. New York Red Bulls
Let’s rewind to an eventful match on the road up in New Jersey that took place just over three years ago.
With Orlando City on break for the foreseeable future, it falls to me to keep bringing you fond memories from OCSC games of years gone by. We won’t be going quite as deep into the vault as we did last week, when we rewound to nine years ago and relived a wet and weird win over D.C. United. Today, we’ll go a little over three years into the past to June 3, 2023, when the Lions hit the road to take on the New York Red Bulls.
As Orlando prepared to face the Red Bulls after opening the season against them at home, things were going pretty well for the Lions. They were riding a four-game unbeaten streak that included some solid results on the road and sought to continue that trend up in Harrison, NJ.
To do that, then-coach Oscar Pareja sent out the team in his traditional 4-2-3-1. Pedro Gallese was in net, while Kyle Smith, Antonio Carlos, Robin Jansson, and Rafael Santos manned the back line. Cesar Araujo and Wilder Cartagena sat in deep midfield as the double pivots, Ivan Angulo, Mauricio Pereyra, and Facundo Torres were the attacking midfielders, and Ercan Kara was deployed as the tip of the proverbial spear.
By and large, the first half wasn’t the most engaging 45 minutes of soccer that Orlando City has ever graced us with. The first 15 minutes saw a lot of fouls and fairly sloppy play, with the game lacking any real rhythm but featuring plenty of stops, starts, and turnovers. That all changed in the 18th minute when Orlando broke the deadlock through an unlikely source. The Lions managed to break New York’s press, and Cartagena took advantage of an out-of-position John Tolkin to play Angulo behind the defense with a great ball. The Colombian carried the ball into the box, cut onto his left foot to avoid the sliding challenge of Dylan Nealis, and beat goalkeeper Carlos Coronel to score his third goal of the season.
The Red Bulls had a great opportunity to tie the game in the 30th minute after a bad Pereyra giveaway at midfield, but Luquinhas hit a tame shot at Gallese and failed to capitalize. Smith of all people had a crack at goal from inside the box just a few minutes before halftime, but he sent his effort wide of the post when he really should have hit the target. Tom Barlow then wasted another chance to put the game at 1-1 going into halftime but contrived to fire over the bar from the top of the area when all he had to do was hit the empty net.
That proved to be the last action of the half, and it was surprising to see Orlando in the lead based on the stats. Orlando held slightly more possession (52.1%-47.9%) and passed marginally better (76.1%-74.9%) but those were the only categories in which it led. The Lions were outshot (7-2), had fewer shots on goal (2-1), and took no corner kicks while the Red Bulls had one.
Fortunately, the Lions got a break just a couple minutes into the second half. Kara ran onto a ball over the top and New York center back Andres Reyes pulled him back, picked up a deserved second yellow card, and hit the showers early in the 47th minute.
New York cleared the danger from the ensuing free kick, but referee Victor Rivas was advised to go to the monitor and check for a foul during the play. Further examination revealed that Sean Nealis took Jansson down from behind as the ball was in the air, and he rightfully pointed to the spot. Enter Torres, who stepped up and beat Coronel (who guessed the right way), to double Orlando’s advantage despite the Paraguayan trying to get in his head beforehand.
The good vibes were dented slightly when Araujo went down injured in the 57th minute, with Felipe coming on in his place. The Red Bulls kept up their traditional high pressing despite being down a man, and with the Lions continuing to be sloppy in possession, it was hard to blame them. The teams traded chances right after Araujo made his exit, and some close calls for New York spurred Pareja into further changes, with Duncan McGuire and Martin Ojeda entering the fray for Kara and Pereyra in the 62nd minute.
Angulo squeezed off a shot from an acute angle three minutes later and Coronel saved it well, with the game entering a bit of a lull after he did so as the teams traded fouls and McGuire was caught offside.
Things sprang back into life in the 72nd minute. Ojeda cleared his lines and managed to find Angulo in the process, who absolutely torched Frankie Amaya down the left wing. The Colombian carried the ball into the box, drew Tolkin to him, and crossed perfectly for the unmarked Torres, who fired low and hard past Coronel with conviction to put the game away for good.
Despite being down 3-0, the Red Bulls kept up the fight and Jansson was forced into a good block just four minutes after Facu bagged his brace. The Lions spurned a few more half chances as the game wound down, and there was a scary moment in the 82nd minute when Dylan Nealis fell into Gallese’s leg, but the goalkeeper was able to soldier on after getting some treatment, although he looked a little shaky.
That more or less did it for the notable moments of action, as Orlando saw out a healthy eight minutes of stoppage time to make it five games unbeaten. The Lions finished with more possession (51.2%-48.8%) and more shots on target (5-2), but New York was crisper with its passing (79.2%-78%), took more shots (14-7), and won more corners (8-2).
David Rohe was on hand for our Player Grades column in this one, and Angulo took Man of the Match honors with an 8 out of 10 for his one-goal, one-assist performance that also included three completed dribbles, two tackles, and an interception. Torres unsurprisingly also graded out high with a 7.5 out of 10, as did Cartagena, who received the same grade.
The Lions went on to grab one more victory before the undefeated streak ended at six up in Foxborough against the New England Revolution. Fortunately, they started picking up points again immediately afterward and had a largely strong summer and back half of the year that saw them finish second in both the Eastern Conference and Supporters’ Shield race. Hopefully, this year’s side can take some cues from the 2023 squad and start stacking points with more regularity once the season resumes in July. Vamos Orlando!
Lion Links
Lion Links: 6/5/26
Maxime Crepeau named Canada’s starter, analyzing Germany before USMNT friendly, USWNT prepares for Brazil, and more.
Happy Friday, Mane Landers! It’s been a pretty hectic week for me, but I’m looking forward to a weekend filled with soccer and celebrating with some friends. It should be a nice next couple of days before the World Cup is here in full force next week. Before we dive into today’s links, let’s all wish a happy birthday to Orlando City B midfielder Dylan Judelson!
Canada Chooses Maxime Crepeau as Starting Goalkeeper
Orlando City goalkeeper Maxime Crepeau was named as the starter for Canada for the upcoming World Cup. The 32-year-old has been in a tight battle with Dayne St. Clair for the starting job for quite some time and he’s done well enough for Jesse Marsch to choose him for the role. This will be Crepeau’s first World Cup since he wasn’t able to take part in the 2022 competition due to a broken leg. Canada will play Ireland today in a friendly before hosting Bosnia and Herzegovina in the World Cup on June 12.
Analyzing Germany Ahead of USMNT Clash
The United States Men’s National Team will take on Germany on Saturday in Chicago in its final friendly before the World Cup starts next week. This will be the 13th match between the two nations, with the most recent one being a 3-1 loss by the U.S. in October of 2023. Manuel Neuer is Germany’s starting goalkeeper, but he’s dealing with an injury and backup Oliver Baumann could play on Saturday in his place. Hopefully the U.S. can make his life difficult, but Germany has tough defenders in Jonathan Tah and Nico Schlotterbeck. Florian Wirtz, Kai Havertz, and Leroy Sane are dangerous attacking threats, while Nick Woltemade brings both height and solid ball movement at the top of the formation. It should be a great test for the USMNT before the games get serious.
USWNT Prepares for Brazil
The United States Women’s National Team is in action on Saturday as well, with the team set to play Brazil in Sao Paulo in the first of two friendlies. Plenty of attention will be on the reunited attacking trio of Sophia Wilson, Trinity Rodman, and Mallory Swanson that combined for 10 goals and five assists in the 2024 Summer Olympics. As for Brazil, the Orlando Pride are well represented, with Marta, Angelina, and Rafaelle all called up for these friendlies. There’s plenty of competing talent on Brazil’s roster, so it will be interesting to see who starts on Saturday. I’m most interested to see how the U.S. defense manages against Brazilian attackers like Ludmila, Dudinha, and Kerolin without having Naomi Girma on the back line.
Liverpool Hires Andoni Iraola as Next Manager
Liverpool didn’t waste much time finding a new manager after firing Arne Slot last week, hiring Andoni Iraola as his replacement. Iraola joins Liverpool after three years with Bournemouth that included securing Europa League qualification for the first time in club history this past season. He now joins a Liverpool team that qualified for the Champions League, but lost 12 league games after winning the league title in 2025. It will be interesting to see how Iraola does at one of England’s biggest clubs, particularly in regards to how his high-octane approach is applied.
Free Kicks
- While the Pride haven’t provided an injury update on Barbra Banda according to reporter Jeff Kassouf, she did reportedly travel for Zambia’s friendlies against Kenya and Burkina Faso as the team prepares for next month’s Women’s Africa Cup of Nations tournament.
- MLS created profiles for each league player taking part in this World Cup, providing info on their statistics and experience. Make sure to check out the ones for Orlando City’s Maxime Crepeau, Marco Pasalic, and Braian Ojeda.
- The Columbus Crew will take on Burnley in an exhibition on July 12, which is between the quarterfinals and semifinals of the World Cup.
- Enjoy this cool story on how former USMNT striker Jozy Altidore will be part of Telemundo’s World Cup coverage as a commentator for the Spanish network.
- Bayer Leverkusen fired Kasper Hjulmand after a sixth-place finish in the Bundesliga this past season, replacing him with Carles Martínez Novell.
- Here’s an insightful look into how soccer provides an opportunity for young Brazilian players in Rio de Janeiro’s favelas.
That’s all I have for you this time around. I hope you all have a fantastical Friday and rest of your weekend!
Orlando City
According to Math, Orlando Among Top Soccering Cities in North America In 2026
A ranking of every North American city by its soccer performances thus far in 2026.
The opening match of the 2026 FIFA Men’s World Cup kicks off one week from today, when Mexico hosts South Africa at Estadio Azteca Mexico City Stadium (thanks FIFA, for your silly stadium-naming policy). Like most soccer fans, I am excited for wall-to-wall games starting next week, but I will definitely also be missing the men and women in purple as Orlando City and the Orlando Pride will not play again until early July (Pride) and late July (Orlando City).
MLS NEXT Pro channeled its inner Red Hot Chili Peppers and said they “can’t stop, they’re addicted to the shindig” and will continue to play a normal weekly schedule throughout the World Cup, so thankfully we will still have the Young Lions to root for during this break. But aside from that, it will be all international soccer for the upcoming weeks, and primarily in North America.
With that in mind, I took a deeper look at the beautiful game on our beautiful continent and evaluated which cities in North America are having the best soccer-related 2026 so far. There are no actual rankings for this, so I created my own, using the following components:
- I awarded a half point to the city of every team in Liga MX, Liga MX Femenil, Major League Soccer (MLS), NWSL, and the Northern Super League (Canada’s top domestic women’s league). This covers the highest levels of club competition on the continent. I did not include the Canadian Premier League (men’s, ranked 159th among men’s leagues by Opta) or the Gainbridge Super League (women’s, ranked 35th among women’s leagues), because even though those are considered leagues at the highest level of competition in their countries, they do not compare to the five leagues I included. Also, Toronto, Montreal, and Vancouver all have teams in MLS.
- I awarded a full point to every city that is hosting World Cup games. This is a little sticky because some stadiums and/or teams represent metropolitan areas as opposed to the actual zip/area code location for the team or stadium, but I did some rounding. I had to put my mathematics degree to good use.
- I averaged the points earned per match per team in that city, and awarded that total number of points to the city. Orlando, for example, received 1.18 points in this category, as Orlando City is averaging 0.93 (this was disappointing to type) and the Pride are averaging 1.42.
- I awarded a point to the city of each quarterfinalist in the 2026 Concacaf Champions Cup and U.S. Open Cup, and a subsequent point for each win by those teams.
- I awarded a point to the city of each semifinalist in the 2026 Concacaf W Champions Cup (this tournament went straight to the semifinals after the group stage), and a subsequent point for each win by those teams, excluding the third-place game.
After I awarded all those points, I rested for a minute, and then I summed up all the points for each city to see which cities are having the best 2026 so far (there are 47 North American cities/metro areas with at least one team in the leagues I included).
As this is an Orlando-focused publication, let’s take a look at the City Beautiful and how we fared. There are two professional teams in Orlando that count, so a half point for Orlando City plus a half point for the Pride accounted for one total point. With how well OCB has been playing (fourth in the Eastern Conference and winners of three of its last four games), I wish I could have included MLS NEXT Pro teams in the points system, but including that league did not make sense.
OCB would have helped with the average points metric as well, as it is averaging 1.83 points per match, the best in Orlando. Restricting it down to Orlando City and the Pride, however, added the 1.18 points that I referenced in the bullets earlier.
The Lions are in the U.S. Open Cup semifinals, which earned them one point for being a quarterfinalist and another point for winning that quarterfinal match, so they picked up two points from the U.S. Open Cup.
Orlando was not selected to be a host city for any World Cup games, Orlando City did not qualify for this year’s Concacaf Champions Cup, and the Pride nearly qualified for the semifinals of the Concacaf W Champions Cup but fell just short (ugh, because they really should have advanced), so Orlando did not pick up any points from any of those three categories.
With the points that Orlando accumulated it has tallied a total of 4.18 points so far in 2026. Let’s take a look at where 4.18 puts Orlando in the city rankings:

The cities in the chart above are sorted alphabetically, for ease of finding any cities you are interested in picking out, but the chart below shows the same data but sorted from most to fewest points earned:

In looking at this chart, you will find Orlando just outside the top 10, sitting in the lucky number 13 spot. Unsurprisingly, most of the teams at the top are among the largest cities on the continent and were also selected to be World Cup host cities. Among cities not selected as host cities, and therefore cities that did not receive a one-point bump in my rubric, Orlando ranked fifth, trailing Toluca (Mexico), Nashville, Washington D.C., and Denver.
If the Pride had played a little better in the Concacaf W Champions Cup, and had Barbra Banda not gotten injured and missed the entire group stage last summer, Orlando likely would have qualified for at least the semifinals in that cup and finished in the top six, or perhaps even higher, of these rankings.
It should come as no surprise to soccer fans that Mexican cities dominate the top of this ranking system, as Mexico City boasts a continent-high six teams (men’s and women’s heavyweights Club América, Cruz Azul, and Pumas), Monterrey houses four (men’s and women’s for Tigres and Monterrey), and Toluca, which only has men’s and women’s teams called Toluca but is the reigning Concacaf men’s champion after defeating Tigres on May 30.
With Miami to the south and Atlanta to the north, it was always unlikely that Orlando was going to be selected as a host city, but based on performance alone, our city is among the top soccer cities on the continent this year. And this is even with Orlando City having a down year during league play in 2026 and the Pride only recently putting together some decent results.
Last year, through 15 games Orlando City was nearly one full point better, averaging 1.80 points per game compared to this year’s 0.93, and the 2025 Pride were two-thirds of a point better than this year’s team through their first 12 games, averaging 2.08 points per game last year compared to 1.42 in 2026.
That was then and this is now, and neither season ended the way Orlando City or the Pride wanted in 2025, so hopefully the slower starts portend something better for this year’s teams. There is still a U.S. Open Cup, Leagues Cup, and MLS playoff spot for Orlando City to play for when its season resumes, and the Pride can solidify, or preferably, improve their playoff spot as well.
As we get closer to the end of 2026 I will update this chart to see where Orlando finishes in the full-year rankings, but for now we once again have unimpeachable evidence that shows that Orlando is the soccer capital of the southeast. We have all known this for years and years, but it is important to remind the people of Atlanta and Miami about it from time to time.
This was that time.
Vamos Orlando!
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