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Predictions for Orlando City’s Remaining Games of the 2024 Season

A deep dive into Orlando City’s final seven opponents and predictions on the Lions will do in those matchups.

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

We do not often write about National Football League Commissioner Roger Goodell at The Mane Land, but it is clear that the NFL was intentional about scheduling its season-opening weekend on a bye weekend for Orlando City, lest they lose all of their viewers to watching the team that you know and I know is the most exciting team to watch in all of sports. Fittingly for the city of Orlando, that excitement has been similar to a roller coaster this season, with ups and downs throughout, but with positive results in eight of the last 10 matches and wins in six of those matches, the team is clearly now heading in the right direction. The question remains whether the Lions will continue this climb or if they are just leading up to a sudden drop.

The Lions have seven games remaining on their regular-reason schedule, and at a quick glance it would appear like they have an excellent chance of continuing their hot streak and picking up points in more than half of those games. The next games in order are:

  • Home vs. New England (1.04 points/game this season, 23rd in MLS)
  • Home vs. Charlotte (1.41, 14th)
  • At Columbus (1.96, second)
  • At Dallas (1.22, 18th)
  • Home vs. Philadelphia (1.11, 21st)
  • At Cincinnati (1.89, fourth)
  • Home vs. Atlanta (1.15, 20th)

As Orlando City is currently on a pace of 1.37 points per game, which is 15th in MLS, the Lions are playing four teams with lower points per game this season, one that is nearly the same, and two that have been performing better thus far this season.

In looking a little deeper at the seven remaining opponents, however, that schedule actually starts to look a little more difficult. If you look at the results from the most recent five matches instead of the season as a whole, Orlando City is playing four teams (Columbus, Dallas, Philadelphia, Atlanta) that are performing better recently than they had been for all games prior to their most recent five games. Two of those teams (Columbus and Dallas) are tied with Orlando City for second in MLS, with 10 points from their last five games. Unfortunately for Orlando City, both of those games against Columbus and Dallas will be on the road, but then again, Orlando’s road record of 6-3-5 (1.50 points/game) is better than its home record of 4-4-5 (1.23 points/game), so perhaps that is actually fortunate.

In looking even deeper, well, this chart will help show how all over the place Orlando City’s opponents really are when you look at their full season performance and also their more recent performance. (PPG = points per game and GDG = goal differential per game, which I needed to use instead of just plain goal differential, since the teams have not all played the same amount of games.)

New England’s -0.84 under Full Season GDG means that for the full season the Revolution have been losing games by an average of 0.84 goals per game.

A few takeaways from this chart:

  • I mentioned earlier that four teams are getting better results recently than they had been before the most recent five matches, but Dallas and Philadelphia are both playing significantly better than they had before, while Atlanta and Columbus are only playing slightly better than they had before.
  • That said, Columbus was playing really well and is still playing really well, so that lack of improvement is relative, since the Crew did not have a lot of room to improve and yet they still did.
  • Cincinnati is a stunning case, since the club had only lost four of its first 22 matches before losing four of its next five. And in those four losses, Cincinnati was outscored 9-2, leading to that big drop in GDG. Even with that swoon, Cincinnati is still ranked fourth overall in MLS and third in the Eastern Conference in points per game.
  • Lastly, the section on the far right shows how each team has performed at home or on the road this season. The Match Location is for Orlando City, and the Opponent PPG shows, for example, that Philadelphia averages 1.31 points on the road this season. Orlando City has a better location-based PPG than its opponent in only three (New England, Charlotte, Atlanta) of the final seven games.

During each of the last three seasons, Orlando City earned at least 48 points during the regular season, and to make it four years in a row, the Lions will need to pick up at least 11 points from these final seven games. Here are the possible points the Lions can still earn, based on the number of wins they could have in those seven games:

Just looking at the math, it is possible that they could get to 11 points with only two wins, but that would require no losses in the other five games, and I think that is asking a lot for a team that has lost 37% of its games thus far this season. I think the most likely way that Orlando City gets to at least 11 points is three wins and two draws or four wins and any number of draws, so we need to rank the final seven opponents based on the likelihood of an Orlando City win.

Before we do that, however, we should note that Orlando City’s only MLS loss in its last seven MLS matches was at Sporting Kansas City, a team that is among the hottest in MLS, with results in four of its last five matches. Even though SKC lost, it played some close matches with several of the top teams in the league (LA Galaxy, Real Salt Lake, Colorado, Vancouver) before that. Perhaps Orlando City’s loss away in Kansas City was not as bad as it seemed at the time.

No, that loss still stunk.

Coming back to our ranking, I got out my mathematics degree, shined it up, blew it a kiss, and then put together a very fancy (read: very simple) algorithm using standard deviations to determine the order of most to least likely for Orlando City to get a win, with a formula that went:

That formula produced the list below, ranked in order of the upcoming schedule, accompanied by the team’s rank in order of likelihood of Orlando City getting a win (higher numbers mean Orlando City is more likely to win):

Whether this algorithm is correct or not, there is no doubt that the next two games for Orlando City are absolutely critical in both the made-up pursuit of a fourth straight season of at least 48 points and the more important push to secure a playoff berth and the opportunity to win MLS Cup. The next game (New England) is always the most important game, and after that, Orlando City could have an opportunity to pass Charlotte and move up the table, depending on how the Lions do against New England and how Charlotte does in its Sept. 14 match against CF Montréal. Both matches are at home, and despite their poor overall home record the Lions have three wins and one draw in their last four home MLS games. It would be quite nice to extend that to five wins in their last six before going on the road to Columbus.

I am going to predict that Orlando City does indeed win against New England and Charlotte, loses on the road at Columbus, ties at Dallas, ties Philadelphia, loses at Cincinnati, and closes with a home win over Atlanta for a final record of 3-2-2 during those last seven matches. The mathematically inclined will quickly recognize that a 3-2-2 record adds up to the 11 points the Lions needed to get to 48 points, but leaves them short of getting to 50 for the third time in the last four years. They would secure a playoff position, but they would also be on the road for the first game, and a third game as well if the series goes to three games.

While the team has definitely been playing a lot better as of late, I think this last seven-match run is a difficult one and the Lions will have to really push to do even as well as I predicted, which is only earning 11 of a possible 21 points. They have it in them to make a run. Let’s hope they come back from this bye week ready to roar and rub my prediction right in my face.

Orlando City

Why Three Could Be Greater Than Four In Orlando City’s Back Line

An analysis of MLS teams using three, four, and five-man back lines and whether it would benefit Orlando City to use a three-man grouping going forwards.

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Orlando City starting lineup vs New York Red Bulls
Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

Orlando City rolled out a three-man back line during last Sunday night’s game against Columbus, and while that formation alone is not responsible for the Lions leading for most of the game and getting their first point of the season on the road, it definitely played a role. During the Óscar Pareja era, Orlando City nearly always played with a four-man back line, but with a lot of roster turnover from last season and new leadership on the sideline, it could be time to give the three-man group a look, as the Lions try to climb out from the bottom of the standings and make the playoffs for the seventh consecutive season.

We will explore whether a three-man back line is worth pursuing below, but making the playoffs is definitely a five-star idea and highly recommended.

Soccer back lines, and formations in general, are fluid. Baseball is static before every play, so you can see exactly where every fielder (defender) was and evaluate offensive and defensive performances against shifts or alignments. American football is not exactly static, but it is closer to baseball than soccer, with most players being still as the play is initiated. Soccer is most similar to hockey, basketball, and lacrosse, where even though players are nominally playing set positions, those positions can constantly change throughout a play and throughout the entirety of the game.

That said, most players generally play in a specific position for much of the game, so we can look at some tracking data and make generalizations about the formations. Opta’s tracking analysts list a primary formation for each team in every game, and while it is not perfect, it is correct more often than not for the general formation used by that team in that game.

Opta’s tracking on fbref.com gives the following table for every formation used in MLS play so far this year, and I have added the associated points earned, goals scored, and goals allowed by each team while in that formation. Make sure you are taking the formation with somewhere between a grain of salt and the bottom third of the salt shaker, but this is the unedited data:

FormationGames UsedAvg. Points EarnedAvg. Goals ForAvg. Goals Allowed
4-2-3-1771.581.741.44
4-3-3481.351.671.65
4-4-2320.970.841.41
3-4-3301.471.571.83
3-5-271.431.571.57
5-4-141.251.250.75
4-1-4-131.331.671.33
3-4-1-231.672.001.67
3-5-1-113.004.003.00
4-4-1-110.000.003.00

I think it is probably easier to just bucket the different formations into simpler sets, using the number of defenders to segment the formations:

Back LineGames UsedAvg. Points EarnedAvg. Goals ForAvg. Goals Allowed
Three-man411.511.661.81
Four-man1611.381.531.50
Five-man41.251.250.75

Most teams in MLS, and also around the world, utilize four-player back lines. Coaches are pragmatists, and some combination between using a lineup that feels more secure (i.e. usually one with more defenders) and one that will not get ridiculed by players, pundits, fans, owners, and writers (the audacity of someone to analyze and comment on lineup choices, how dare they?) drives a hefty portion of the decision making for those making lineup decisions.

Orlando City used a three-man back line in the game against Columbus, though there were parts of the game when it looked much more like a five-man back line with Griffin Dorsey and Iván Angulo dropped all the way back on defense. The sofascore.com heatmaps for all five (Angulo, David Brekalo, Robin Jansson, Iago, and Dorsey) are listed below in order from left to right, and you can see where all five have a good amount of touches in the defensive third. Angulo and Dorsey played far higher than the middle three, however, which is why the formation Opta assigned to Orlando City was a back three. Imperfect, but directionally it makes sense.

Heat maps of Orlando City's defensive players against Columbus.

With the players on the current roster, a back three may well be the right lineup to use until the next transfer window. There is a not a lot of blazing speed among Orlando City’s defensive group, but most of the defenders have decent size and are good in the air, so protecting the heart of the defense with Brekalo, Jansson, and Iago as the starters and Adrián Marín and Tahir Reid-Brown as backups gives the team some decent depth without sacrificing size. Alas, this comes one year too late for former Lion Thomas Williams, who probably would have been better suited to a back three than a back four.

In addition to having a good set of center back candidates, Angulo, Dorsey, Zakaria Taifi, and Marín are all good wingback options as well, and players who have the skills and pace to get up into the attack while also recovering back to help out the defensive line.

Orlando City’s current personnel fits the three-man back line well, and considering most teams in MLS are using four-man back lines, that decision also bodes well considering how three-man back lines have done this season when playing against four- or five-man back lines. Three-man back lines have been used against four- or five-man back lines 31 times thus far this season, and those teams are earning 1.58 points per match during those games. That amount of points per match would have been in the top half of MLS last season (13th), right above the actual 2025 Orlando City team, which finished on 1.56 points per match.

Orlando City hosts Houston this weekend, and the Dynamo have primarily used a four-man back line (featuring former Lion Antonio Carlos) thus far this season. On Saturday night we will see if the three-man back line was just for the Columbus game or if it is something that the Lions will trot out again in hopes of continuing the league-wide trend of teams finding success when playing three in the back against teams playing four in the back.

I do not really care whether it is three or four in the back, as long as that by the end of the game Orlando City has done better than Houston at putting more in the back…of the opposition’s net.

Vamos Orlando!

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Orlando City

Orlando City vs. Houston Dynamo: Three Keys to Victory

What do the Lions need to do to earn all three points against the Dynamo this weekend?

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Image of Eduard Atuesta looking for a teammate to pass to.
Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

Orlando City returns home to Inter&Co Stadium to take on the Houston Dynamo on Saturday. The Lions are coming off a 1-1 draw against the Columbus Crew on Sunday, and a 1-0 road win against FC Naples in the U.S. Open Cup on Wednesday in a busy week. Hopefully, Orlando City can keep the good time rolling with another positive result this weekend. What must the Lions do to earn all three points against Houston Saturday night?

The Midfield (Part 1)

Houston has a pretty good midfield with Hector Herrera, Mateusz Bogusz, and Lawrence Ennali. Ennali has two of the Dynamo’s 10 goals this season. Controlling these players and thus controlling possession in the middle of the pitch will make a difference in how the match plays out. Braian Ojeda and Eduard Atuesta are not midfield destroyers and that has hurt Orlando City this season. If at all possible, the Lions need to be more physical in the defensive midfield to limit Houston’s ability to build the attack.

More on Herrera: In his first stint with the Dynamo he was a Designated Player and considered one of the best midfielders in the league. He helped lead Houston to a U.S. Open Cup title in 2024. Despite having only played limited minutes this season, he already has two assists and will present problems in the midfield.

The Midfield (Part Deux)

Traffic flows both ways on a soccer pitch, and while Orlando City hasn’t been good about taking on and stopping attacks in the defensive midfield, the players have also struggled to break through the opposition’s lines. This has been in large part due to very poor passing, and I’m not certain how to fix “stop passing the ball to the opponent,” but that is what the team will need to do.

Having Robin Jansson as the safety outlet for the others on the back line, and by extension the midfield, helps, as does his ability to send accurate long balls down the field. It would also be good if the rest of the players could connect on their passes. Not only will it allow Orlando City to move the ball down the pitch and connect the defense to the attack, but it will limit the amount of time Houston is on the ball. Passing shouldn’t be a key I write about, but here we are.

Finish Them

Orlando City struck first against the Columbus Crew and then wasted every other chance — that is, while there were chances still being created. It was like a switch was turned off. “Hey, we got a goal. Let’s go back to how we were playing when we weren’t scoring goals,” is how I think it went. That cannot happen against Houston — or any team for that matter. I’m not even talking about how sometimes a team will get more defensive with a lead, or the other team makes adjustments. There was some sort of mentality switch, and it needs to be fixed.

If Orlando City is able to score first, then someone needs to get a second goal. The Lions have only scored two goals in a match twice this season. The first was against Inter Miami, and we know what happened in that one. The other time was against CF Montreal — Orlando City’s only win so far. Houston isn’t as good as Miami but is probably better than Montreal. My point is the Lions most likely need multiple goals to win this match, and it starts with finishing.


That is what I will be looking for Saturday night. Let me know your thoughts in the comments below. Vamos Orlando!

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Lion Links

Lion Links: 4/16/26

Orlando City wins against FC Naples, U.S. Open Cup results, USWNT takeaways following loss, and more.

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

This Thursday might feel a little more like a Friday thanks to Orlando City winning a game last night. Sure, it was more like the Lions failed to complete an implosion, but we’ll take what we can get at this point. Another MLS match is on the horizon this weekend, so if you crafted any lucky charms, make sure to keep them out for a few more days. Let’s get to the links!

Orlando City Wins U.S. Open Cup Match

It wasn’t the prettiest of wins, but Orlando City went on the road and beat FC Naples 1-0 in the Lamar Hunt U.S. Open Cup to advance to the round of 16. The Lions opted for a fairly young roster to start and managed to take the lead in the first half. The defense started to fall apart as the match wore on, but it managed to hold on by a matter of inches against the USL League One side for its first clean sheet of the year. Orlando is the last Floridian team standing in the tournament and its next match will be on the road against the New England Revolution on either April 28 or 29.

MLS Mostly Avoids Cupsets in Round of 32

There weren’t too many shocking results in the round of 32 of this year’s U.S. Open Cup, with the MLS clubs taking care of business for the most part. Charlotte FC crushed the Charlotte Independence 6-0, the Columbus Crew shut out the Richmond Kickers in a 3-0 win, and the New York Red Bulls beat the Pittsburgh Riverhounds 3-1. St. Louis City and the Houston Dynamo also cruised to comfortable wins. D.C. United was defeated though, losing the penalty shootout to One Knoxville SC after a thrilling game. Last year’s tournament didn’t include any teams from outside MLS in the quarterfinals. The Colorado Springs Switchbacks and Louisville City also managed to take down their MLS opponents earlier this week, so we’ll see if they can keep making noise later this month.

Takeaways From USWNT Loss to Japan

The United States Women’s National Team lost 1-0 to Japan in the second of three friendlies between the two this month, snapping its 10-game win streak. Head Coach Emma Hayes went with a young roster, with 20-year-old midfielder Claire Hutton becoming the team’s youngest captain since 2001. The team’s inexperience showed at times, particularly when it came to struggling to produce chances despite plenty of possession, but these were valuable minutes against one of the top teams in the world. We’ll see how the team responds on Friday when the two play again in Denver.

UEFA Champions League Semifinals Set

Only four teams remain in the UEFA Champions League after an exciting series of quarterfinals. Bayern Munich advanced after beating Real Madrid 4-3 in a rollercoaster of a match that included five goals in the first half. Arda Guler had a brace within the first 30 minutes, but Bayern kept things close and then scored two late goals after Eduardo Camavinga was shown a red card in the 86th minute. The match between Arsenal and Sporting was a quieter affair, with Arsenal advancing on aggregate after a scoreless draw.

The semifinals don’t feature any teams from the same country and should be a fun round of matches. Atletico Madrid will square off against Arsenal, while Bayern will play against Paris Saint-Germain.

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That’s all I have for you this time around. I hope you all have a wonderful Thursday and rest of your week!

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