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Orlando City

Predictions for Orlando City’s Remaining Games of the 2024 Season

A deep dive into Orlando City’s final seven opponents and predictions on the Lions will do in those matchups.

Published

2 years ago

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

We do not often write about National Football League Commissioner Roger Goodell at The Mane Land, but it is clear that the NFL was intentional about scheduling its season-opening weekend on a bye weekend for Orlando City, lest they lose all of their viewers to watching the team that you know and I know is the most exciting team to watch in all of sports. Fittingly for the city of Orlando, that excitement has been similar to a roller coaster this season, with ups and downs throughout, but with positive results in eight of the last 10 matches and wins in six of those matches, the team is clearly now heading in the right direction. The question remains whether the Lions will continue this climb or if they are just leading up to a sudden drop.

The Lions have seven games remaining on their regular-reason schedule, and at a quick glance it would appear like they have an excellent chance of continuing their hot streak and picking up points in more than half of those games. The next games in order are:

  • Home vs. New England (1.04 points/game this season, 23rd in MLS)
  • Home vs. Charlotte (1.41, 14th)
  • At Columbus (1.96, second)
  • At Dallas (1.22, 18th)
  • Home vs. Philadelphia (1.11, 21st)
  • At Cincinnati (1.89, fourth)
  • Home vs. Atlanta (1.15, 20th)

As Orlando City is currently on a pace of 1.37 points per game, which is 15th in MLS, the Lions are playing four teams with lower points per game this season, one that is nearly the same, and two that have been performing better thus far this season.

In looking a little deeper at the seven remaining opponents, however, that schedule actually starts to look a little more difficult. If you look at the results from the most recent five matches instead of the season as a whole, Orlando City is playing four teams (Columbus, Dallas, Philadelphia, Atlanta) that are performing better recently than they had been for all games prior to their most recent five games. Two of those teams (Columbus and Dallas) are tied with Orlando City for second in MLS, with 10 points from their last five games. Unfortunately for Orlando City, both of those games against Columbus and Dallas will be on the road, but then again, Orlando’s road record of 6-3-5 (1.50 points/game) is better than its home record of 4-4-5 (1.23 points/game), so perhaps that is actually fortunate.

In looking even deeper, well, this chart will help show how all over the place Orlando City’s opponents really are when you look at their full season performance and also their more recent performance. (PPG = points per game and GDG = goal differential per game, which I needed to use instead of just plain goal differential, since the teams have not all played the same amount of games.)

New England’s -0.84 under Full Season GDG means that for the full season the Revolution have been losing games by an average of 0.84 goals per game.

A few takeaways from this chart:

  • I mentioned earlier that four teams are getting better results recently than they had been before the most recent five matches, but Dallas and Philadelphia are both playing significantly better than they had before, while Atlanta and Columbus are only playing slightly better than they had before.
  • That said, Columbus was playing really well and is still playing really well, so that lack of improvement is relative, since the Crew did not have a lot of room to improve and yet they still did.
  • Cincinnati is a stunning case, since the club had only lost four of its first 22 matches before losing four of its next five. And in those four losses, Cincinnati was outscored 9-2, leading to that big drop in GDG. Even with that swoon, Cincinnati is still ranked fourth overall in MLS and third in the Eastern Conference in points per game.
  • Lastly, the section on the far right shows how each team has performed at home or on the road this season. The Match Location is for Orlando City, and the Opponent PPG shows, for example, that Philadelphia averages 1.31 points on the road this season. Orlando City has a better location-based PPG than its opponent in only three (New England, Charlotte, Atlanta) of the final seven games.

During each of the last three seasons, Orlando City earned at least 48 points during the regular season, and to make it four years in a row, the Lions will need to pick up at least 11 points from these final seven games. Here are the possible points the Lions can still earn, based on the number of wins they could have in those seven games:

Just looking at the math, it is possible that they could get to 11 points with only two wins, but that would require no losses in the other five games, and I think that is asking a lot for a team that has lost 37% of its games thus far this season. I think the most likely way that Orlando City gets to at least 11 points is three wins and two draws or four wins and any number of draws, so we need to rank the final seven opponents based on the likelihood of an Orlando City win.

Before we do that, however, we should note that Orlando City’s only MLS loss in its last seven MLS matches was at Sporting Kansas City, a team that is among the hottest in MLS, with results in four of its last five matches. Even though SKC lost, it played some close matches with several of the top teams in the league (LA Galaxy, Real Salt Lake, Colorado, Vancouver) before that. Perhaps Orlando City’s loss away in Kansas City was not as bad as it seemed at the time.

No, that loss still stunk.

Coming back to our ranking, I got out my mathematics degree, shined it up, blew it a kiss, and then put together a very fancy (read: very simple) algorithm using standard deviations to determine the order of most to least likely for Orlando City to get a win, with a formula that went:

That formula produced the list below, ranked in order of the upcoming schedule, accompanied by the team’s rank in order of likelihood of Orlando City getting a win (higher numbers mean Orlando City is more likely to win):

Whether this algorithm is correct or not, there is no doubt that the next two games for Orlando City are absolutely critical in both the made-up pursuit of a fourth straight season of at least 48 points and the more important push to secure a playoff berth and the opportunity to win MLS Cup. The next game (New England) is always the most important game, and after that, Orlando City could have an opportunity to pass Charlotte and move up the table, depending on how the Lions do against New England and how Charlotte does in its Sept. 14 match against CF Montréal. Both matches are at home, and despite their poor overall home record the Lions have three wins and one draw in their last four home MLS games. It would be quite nice to extend that to five wins in their last six before going on the road to Columbus.

I am going to predict that Orlando City does indeed win against New England and Charlotte, loses on the road at Columbus, ties at Dallas, ties Philadelphia, loses at Cincinnati, and closes with a home win over Atlanta for a final record of 3-2-2 during those last seven matches. The mathematically inclined will quickly recognize that a 3-2-2 record adds up to the 11 points the Lions needed to get to 48 points, but leaves them short of getting to 50 for the third time in the last four years. They would secure a playoff position, but they would also be on the road for the first game, and a third game as well if the series goes to three games.

While the team has definitely been playing a lot better as of late, I think this last seven-match run is a difficult one and the Lions will have to really push to do even as well as I predicted, which is only earning 11 of a possible 21 points. They have it in them to make a run. Let’s hope they come back from this bye week ready to roar and rub my prediction right in my face.

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Lion Links

Lion Links: 5/12/26

Barbra Banda up for weekly honors, Johnny Cardoso to have surgery, Americans in midweek action, and more.

Published

14 hours ago

on

May 12, 2026

By

Dan MacDonald, The Mane Land

Good morning, everyone. It was a mixed bag for Orlando’s soccer teams over the weekend, as the Orlando Pride and Orlando City B both picked up victories, while Orlando City lost. There’s no rest for the wicked though, because the Pride take on Boston Legacy on the road tonight, while the Lions will host the Philadelphia Union on Wednesday. We’ve got a lot to talk about this morning, so let’s get into the links.

Barbra Banda up for Weekly Honors

Barbra Banda’s game-winning strike over the North Carolina Courage has been nominated for the NWSL Goal of the Week. Banda cut across her marker in the 87th minute with the match tied 0-0 and curled a great strike inside the far post to give the Pride a lead that wouldn’t be relinquished. The victory got Orlando back on track after dropping two games in a row, and the goal was Banda’s league-leading eighth strike of the year. Make sure you go vote for her to win!

Surgery for Johnny Cardoso

Atletico Madrid announced on Monday that midfielder Johnny Cardoso will have surgery to repair an injury to his right ankle. Cardoso was hurt during a training session, with Atletico classifying the injury as a “high-grade sprain involving joint damage.” The club’s statement did not specify a timeline for his return to the field and U.S. Soccer has not made any statement besides wishing Cardoso a speedy recovery. That said, with this summer’s World Cup less than a month away, its tough to imagine that he’ll be healed up and ready to be part of the United States Men’s National Team roster. If that’s the case, it’ll be a bitter blow for both the USMNT and a midfielder that looked like a sure bet to be on the squad.

Americans in Midweek Action

There are a number of Americans who will be taking part in games during the working week, so let’s make sure we’ve got everything on the schedule. Things got started on Monday when Brenden Aaronson played 63 minutes in Leeds United’s 1-1 draw with Tottenham. Action continues today when Aidan Morris and Middlesborough face Southampton in the second leg of an EFL Championship playoff promotion semifinal. Wednesday sees Auston Trusty and Celtic take on Motherwell in a game with massive ramifications on the title race in the Scottish Premier League. Wednesday also has Alex Freeman and Villarreal hosting Sevilla in La Liga play, while Chris Richards and Crystal Palace will try to play spoiler against Manchester City.

MLS Matchday 12 Lessons

Matchday 12 is officially in the books for Major League Soccer, so what did we learn from the weekend’s action? For one thing, Jack McGlynn was imperious in his second game back from injury, as his brace helped the Houston Dynamo knock off LAFC on the road while USMNT assistant Jesus Perez was watching from the stands. The New England Revolution are now unbeaten in the club’s last seven league games, and Carles Gil was a big reason why, as he nabbed a goal and an assist in the Revs’ 2-1 win over the Philadelphia Union. He’s got four goals and four assists so far, and the Revs are sitting pretty at second in the Eastern Conference.

Transfer Rumor Roundup

European seasons aren’t quite wrapped up yet, but that isn’t stopping transfer rumors from flying thick and fast. We start with the Premier League, where Manchester City is reportedly prepared to trigger the release clause of 16-year-old Hertha Berlin midfielder Kennet Eichhorn, before immediately sending the player on loan to continue his development. Elsewhere in England, Manchester United, Liverpool, and Arsenal are all said to be interested in signing Juventus fullback Andrea Cambiaso. Switching lanes to the managerial side of things, Chelsea has reportedly identified Xabi Alonso as the leading candidate to become the next manager of the team, with the Spaniard said to be open to taking the job. Finally, Jose Mourinho is said to be open to taking the Real Madrid job, although he reportedly has a couple conditions that he wants met first.

Free Kicks

  • Kickoff times have been set for Orlando City’s three group stages matches in this year’s Leagues Cup.
  • The Lions will be launching a new merch collection Friday at The Final Whistle.

That’s all I’ve got for you this morning. Vamos Orlando!

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Orlando City

Orlando City vs. CF Montreal: Player Grades and Man of the Match

Here’s how your favorite Lions performed in Orlando City’s 2-0 loss to CF Montreal.

Published

1 day ago

on

May 11, 2026

By

Image of Griffin Dorsey trying to send the ball upfield against a Montreal defender.
Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

If you play Football Manager enough, you play plenty of games where the after-match comment is “a bore draw.” That appeared to be where Orlando City’s road game at CF Montreal was headed until a mistake by Robin Jansson in added time led to a penalty which opened the scoring for the hosts. They tacked on another late in stoppage time and the Lions will return home for a three-game set (one of them in the U.S. Open Cup) sore from Saturday’s 2-0 loss to CF Montreal.

Let’s take a look at how Orlando City’s players rated individually in their matchup with the Quebecois.

Starters

GK, Maxime Crépeau, 5.5 — With 25 shots by Montreal, one would’ve figured Crepeau was busy. Not really — he finished with three saves. A goalkeeper is almost never responsible for being scored on from the penalty spot, but Dagur Dan Thorallsson’s goal at the death is one Crepeau will want back, although in fairness it was perfectly placed. The Canadian goalkeeper finished with a 72.7% passing rate and was helped out after being rounded by Prince Owusu in a 1-v-1 opportunity that his teammates should never have allwoed for what would have been a goal if not for Iago’s sliding block to clear it off the line.

D, Adrián Marin, 5.5 — Marin got caught ball-watching in the 34th minute to allow a Wiki Carmona rocket that just went wide. Otherwise, he just didn’t impact the game one way or the other. Marin completed 87.8% of his passes and added one tackle, one block, and three clearances.

D, Robin Jansson, 5 — Jansson played his normal emergency role all game. Unfortunately, he got put off-balance in the first minute of added time in the second half and fell into the legs of Luca Petrasso, giving a penalty. It was a rough ending for the captain, but Orlando left the door open for Montreal and the hosts took it. The Swede also couldn’t close down Thorhallsson to prevent the second late Montreal goal. Jansson completed 78.7% of his passes, with one tackle, 10(!) clearances, and one block.

D, Iago, 6 — We saw both sides of Iago. He had a really nice pass in the 17th minute to free up Eduard Atuesta on goal but the Colombian missed the target to waste Orlando’s best chance of the game. The Brazilian’s biggest highlight moment was in the 76th minute, when Owusu dribbled past Crepeau for an open look at goal but Iago was there to clear it off the line. On the flip side, he also had a dangerous header defending a corner that almost created an own goal, instead hitting the left post. He got pulled wide in the first minute of the second half, allowing a dangerous shot by Owusu. On the offensive end, he got on the end of a corner but headed it right at Thomas Gillier. He was all over the place, which you can expect from a young player. He would’ve gotten a higher grade had the game finished scoreless because of his goal-line clearance and a couple of sparkling long balls that should have led to more. Alas. He finished with zero interceptions or tackles, three blocks, six clearances, and a 92.3% passing rate. He also picked up a yellow card in the sixth minute of added time in the second half preventing a counter on one of his attacking teammates’ many turnovers.

D, Griffin Dorsey, 5.5— While Orlando City was heavily weighted to the left side all game, when the Lions went down the right, it was through Dorsey. He led the break down that side multiple times but had trouble connecting. Dorsey finished with one tackle, three clearances, and one cross while passing at a 79% rate.

MF, Iván Angulo, 4.5 — When Angulo whiffed on a ball in the second minute which caused a Montreal counter, it was an indicator of the night to come. He was sloppy all game long and, by The Mane Land’s unofficial tally, turned the ball over eight times, with the majority of those coming in his own defensive half. It was an ugly night that looked a touch better when Tyrese Spicer departed, changing Angulo’s duties, but it didn’t wipe out a forgettable match. He finished with 90.2% passing, despite being loose with the ball. He was two out of six for successful dribbles and two out of seven in winning ground duels.

MF, Eduard Atuesta, 5.5 — A major part of the toothlessness of the Lions in the match was the midfield play. While Atuesta had a 95% passing rate, the only real impact he had was in the 17th minute, when Iago broke him free with a great pass. Atuesta made a well-timed run, but he ended up doing nothing with it when he sent his shot wide of goal. He had a turnover in the fourth minute to leave Montreal with a 3-on-2 break, leaving me to wonder if it was going to be one of those nights for him. Luckily no, but there was no real contribution either. He picked up a yellow card in the 62nd, was dispossessed once, and committed four fouls.

MF, Braian Ojeda, 5.5— Atuesta’s midfield partner also had trouble linking the play but contributed a touch more defensively. His sloppy handling in the 41st minute allowed Montreal to keep possession and created a corner. In the end, he finished with one tackle, one block, one clearance, and a 90% passing rate.

MF, Tyrese Spicer, 6— Unfortunately, most of Spicer’s contributions came on the defensive end this game because he could never get himself in the flow offensively. While he was 10-for-11 passing, he attempted two shots, one right at the goalkeeper and the other that missed so badly it almost went behind the net without hitting anything. He had just two touches in the opposition box. His biggest highlight was a tackle in the 23rd minute to end a dangerous Montreal possession. He was replaced in the 67th minute by Duncan McGuire. Spicer finished with a 91% passing success rate, led the team in tackles with four, and added two interceptions.

F, Martín Ojeda, 5 — This grade may be a bit harsh. However, when you are a Designated Player, you have to contribute, and Martin Ojeda was invisible at best. With 44 total passes, he was the one having to compensate for the lack of midfield control and it showed by his lack of offensive contribution. He had zero touches in the opposition box, which is not going to be a recipe for Orlando City success. Martin took one shot that was on target and passed at a 91% rate.

F, Justin Ellis, 6.5 (MotM)— Someone has to win Man of the Match. Ellis almost wins it by default as his overall play was the only positive thing all game. While his stats were mediocre, and there was not one moment you can pick to point to, he was the most talented when on the ball, tracked back to collect the ball occasionally, did more to link play than the midfield did, and just didn’t have a negative impact. He was replaced in the 80th by David Brekalo and finished with a 94% passing rate, was four-for-four on successful dribbles, and went five-for-six on ground duels won.

Substitutes

F, Duncan McGuire (67′), 5— McGuire started out playing out of position on the wing and while asked to pick up the offense, McGuire was unable to show anything of promise. Dorsey found him in the 88th minute with a cross, but McGuire turned down a quick shot and held the ball too long while deciding, and he ended up taking a low angle shot that had been there from the beginning that ended up harmless. He passed at a 75% rate and had three touches in the opposition box, turning those into a measly 0.05 expected goals. One of his touches on a promising attack was heavy and wasted the opportunity to get a shot off late in the game.

D, David Brekalo (80′), N/A — Brekalo came on for Ellis with a few minutes remaining, maybe a tactical choice to see out the draw. He completed all seven of his passes and had one clearance. He was not able to do anything to prevent Montreal’s two late goals, but he wasn’t the only one.

MF, Tiago (90′+5), N/A — Tiago entered right after the penalty to try to claw back a goal. Unfortunately, he whiffed on a 50/50 ball just moments before Thorhallsson ended up scoring the game’s second goal. He wasn’t on long enough to issue a grade, however.

D, Zakaria Taifi (90′+5), N/A — The best thing you can say about Taifi’s time is that he didn’t turn the ball over conceding a goal in the five minutes he was on the field.

That’s how I saw the individual performances in Orlando City’s loss to CF Montreal. Let us know what you thought of the game in the comments below, and don’t forget to vote for your Man of the Match.

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Lion Links

Lion Links: 5/11/26

Lions fall to CF Montreal, Pride defeat North Carolina Courage, OCB beats Atlanta United 2, and more.

Published

2 days ago

on

May 11, 2026

By

Image of Barbra Banda taking a shot against North Carolina.
Image courtesy of Orlando Pride / Justin Glatt

Hello, Mane Landers! I hope all is well with you down in Florida, and belated happy Mother’s Day to all you moms out there. I spent the weekend in Texas catching up with friends and family. Let’s wish a happy birthday to Orlando City goalkeeper Maxime Crepeau, who turns 32 today. We’ve got plenty to cover today, so let’s get to the links.

Lions Fall to CF Montreal

Orlando City fell 2-0 to CF Montreal at Stade Saputo Saturday on a pair of late goals. After a scoreless first half, the Lions were minutes away from escaping with a point on the road but conceded twice in stoppage time, with former Lion Dagur Dan Thorhallsson adding the insurance goal for Montreal as Orlando City left Canada with zero points. The Lions could not capitalize on their few scoring chances throughout the match. Orlando City returns home for its next match on Wednesday against the Philadelphia Union at Inter&Co Stadium.

Banda’s Late Goal Lifts Pride Over Courage

The Orlando Pride defeated the North Carolina Courage 1-0 at Inter&Co Stadium Friday, as Barbra Banda scored the lone goal late in the second half to help the Pride secure a much-needed win, snapping their two-match losing streak. Banda scored her eighth goal of the season, and she has scored five goals in the last three matches. The Pride will be on the road this week, facing the Boston Legacy Tuesday at Gillette Stadium, followed by another match Saturday against the Denver Summit at Dick’s Sporting Goods Park.

OCB Beats Atlanta United 2 on the Road

Orlando City B defeated Atlanta United 2 with a goal in each half, winning 2-0 at Turner Soccer Complex in Athens, GA Sunday. Gustavo Caraballo scored the opening goal from the spot to give the Young Lions the early lead. In the second half, Issah Haruna added another goal for the Young Lions to put it away and take three points. OCB will be back on the road Sunday to face New England Revolution II at Beirne Stadium in Smithfield, RI.

Americans Abroad

Austin Trusty played a full 90 minutes as Celtic won its sixth consecutive match across all competitions 3-1 against Rangers. Gio Reyna scored his first goal of the season for Borussia Monchengladbach to snap his 16-month goal drought at the club level, but his side fell 3-1 to FC Augsburg. Weston McKennie played 86 minutes for Juventus in a 1-0 win against Lecce. In the Women’s FA Cup semifinals, Alyssa Thompson played 78 minutes for Chelsea, but her side fell 3-2 to Manchester City after extra time. Lindsey Heaps scored for OL Lyonnes while Lily Yohannes and Korbin Shrader were also in action in a 4-1 win against Paris Saint-Germain to lift the Coupe De France trophy. Later today, Brenden Aaronson and Leeds United will face Tottenham Hotspur.

Free Kicks

  • Check out this video on Orlando City’s social media pages featuring some players writing letters to their moms for Mother’s Day.
  • James Rodriguez will reportedly leave Minnesota United this week and will not return to the club after the World Cup concludes this summer.
  • Slavia Prague chairman Jaroslav Tvrdik stated that the club will impose a lifetime ban to fans who invaded the pitch as the club was minutes away from defeating rivals Sparta Prague Saturday to win the Czech First League title before the match was abandoned.
  • Leandro Trossard scored a late winner in the second half to help Arsenal beat West Ham United 1-0 to keep its five-point lead over Manchester City and pull a step closer to clinching the English Premier League title.

That will do it for me today, Mane Landers. Enjoy your Monday, and I’ll see you next time.

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