Orlando City
Predictions for Orlando City’s Remaining Games of the 2024 Season
A deep dive into Orlando City’s final seven opponents and predictions on the Lions will do in those matchups.
We do not often write about National Football League Commissioner Roger Goodell at The Mane Land, but it is clear that the NFL was intentional about scheduling its season-opening weekend on a bye weekend for Orlando City, lest they lose all of their viewers to watching the team that you know and I know is the most exciting team to watch in all of sports. Fittingly for the city of Orlando, that excitement has been similar to a roller coaster this season, with ups and downs throughout, but with positive results in eight of the last 10 matches and wins in six of those matches, the team is clearly now heading in the right direction. The question remains whether the Lions will continue this climb or if they are just leading up to a sudden drop.
The Lions have seven games remaining on their regular-reason schedule, and at a quick glance it would appear like they have an excellent chance of continuing their hot streak and picking up points in more than half of those games. The next games in order are:
- Home vs. New England (1.04 points/game this season, 23rd in MLS)
- Home vs. Charlotte (1.41, 14th)
- At Columbus (1.96, second)
- At Dallas (1.22, 18th)
- Home vs. Philadelphia (1.11, 21st)
- At Cincinnati (1.89, fourth)
- Home vs. Atlanta (1.15, 20th)
As Orlando City is currently on a pace of 1.37 points per game, which is 15th in MLS, the Lions are playing four teams with lower points per game this season, one that is nearly the same, and two that have been performing better thus far this season.
In looking a little deeper at the seven remaining opponents, however, that schedule actually starts to look a little more difficult. If you look at the results from the most recent five matches instead of the season as a whole, Orlando City is playing four teams (Columbus, Dallas, Philadelphia, Atlanta) that are performing better recently than they had been for all games prior to their most recent five games. Two of those teams (Columbus and Dallas) are tied with Orlando City for second in MLS, with 10 points from their last five games. Unfortunately for Orlando City, both of those games against Columbus and Dallas will be on the road, but then again, Orlando’s road record of 6-3-5 (1.50 points/game) is better than its home record of 4-4-5 (1.23 points/game), so perhaps that is actually fortunate.
In looking even deeper, well, this chart will help show how all over the place Orlando City’s opponents really are when you look at their full season performance and also their more recent performance. (PPG = points per game and GDG = goal differential per game, which I needed to use instead of just plain goal differential, since the teams have not all played the same amount of games.)
New England’s -0.84 under Full Season GDG means that for the full season the Revolution have been losing games by an average of 0.84 goals per game.
A few takeaways from this chart:
- I mentioned earlier that four teams are getting better results recently than they had been before the most recent five matches, but Dallas and Philadelphia are both playing significantly better than they had before, while Atlanta and Columbus are only playing slightly better than they had before.
- That said, Columbus was playing really well and is still playing really well, so that lack of improvement is relative, since the Crew did not have a lot of room to improve and yet they still did.
- Cincinnati is a stunning case, since the club had only lost four of its first 22 matches before losing four of its next five. And in those four losses, Cincinnati was outscored 9-2, leading to that big drop in GDG. Even with that swoon, Cincinnati is still ranked fourth overall in MLS and third in the Eastern Conference in points per game.
- Lastly, the section on the far right shows how each team has performed at home or on the road this season. The Match Location is for Orlando City, and the Opponent PPG shows, for example, that Philadelphia averages 1.31 points on the road this season. Orlando City has a better location-based PPG than its opponent in only three (New England, Charlotte, Atlanta) of the final seven games.
During each of the last three seasons, Orlando City earned at least 48 points during the regular season, and to make it four years in a row, the Lions will need to pick up at least 11 points from these final seven games. Here are the possible points the Lions can still earn, based on the number of wins they could have in those seven games:
Just looking at the math, it is possible that they could get to 11 points with only two wins, but that would require no losses in the other five games, and I think that is asking a lot for a team that has lost 37% of its games thus far this season. I think the most likely way that Orlando City gets to at least 11 points is three wins and two draws or four wins and any number of draws, so we need to rank the final seven opponents based on the likelihood of an Orlando City win.
Before we do that, however, we should note that Orlando City’s only MLS loss in its last seven MLS matches was at Sporting Kansas City, a team that is among the hottest in MLS, with results in four of its last five matches. Even though SKC lost, it played some close matches with several of the top teams in the league (LA Galaxy, Real Salt Lake, Colorado, Vancouver) before that. Perhaps Orlando City’s loss away in Kansas City was not as bad as it seemed at the time.
No, that loss still stunk.
Coming back to our ranking, I got out my mathematics degree, shined it up, blew it a kiss, and then put together a very fancy (read: very simple) algorithm using standard deviations to determine the order of most to least likely for Orlando City to get a win, with a formula that went:
That formula produced the list below, ranked in order of the upcoming schedule, accompanied by the team’s rank in order of likelihood of Orlando City getting a win (higher numbers mean Orlando City is more likely to win):
Whether this algorithm is correct or not, there is no doubt that the next two games for Orlando City are absolutely critical in both the made-up pursuit of a fourth straight season of at least 48 points and the more important push to secure a playoff berth and the opportunity to win MLS Cup. The next game (New England) is always the most important game, and after that, Orlando City could have an opportunity to pass Charlotte and move up the table, depending on how the Lions do against New England and how Charlotte does in its Sept. 14 match against CF Montréal. Both matches are at home, and despite their poor overall home record the Lions have three wins and one draw in their last four home MLS games. It would be quite nice to extend that to five wins in their last six before going on the road to Columbus.
I am going to predict that Orlando City does indeed win against New England and Charlotte, loses on the road at Columbus, ties at Dallas, ties Philadelphia, loses at Cincinnati, and closes with a home win over Atlanta for a final record of 3-2-2 during those last seven matches. The mathematically inclined will quickly recognize that a 3-2-2 record adds up to the 11 points the Lions needed to get to 48 points, but leaves them short of getting to 50 for the third time in the last four years. They would secure a playoff position, but they would also be on the road for the first game, and a third game as well if the series goes to three games.
While the team has definitely been playing a lot better as of late, I think this last seven-match run is a difficult one and the Lions will have to really push to do even as well as I predicted, which is only earning 11 of a possible 21 points. They have it in them to make a run. Let’s hope they come back from this bye week ready to roar and rub my prediction right in my face.
Orlando City
Orlando City vs. Charlotte FC: Preview, How to Watch, TV Info, Live Stream, Lineups, Match Thread, and More
The Lions look for a third straight win at home before heading back on the road when Charlotte FC visits.
Welcome to your match preview and live thread for a Wednesday night matchup between Orlando City (11-10-7, 40 points) and Charlotte FC (10-10-8, 38 points) at Inter&Co Stadium (8:15 p.m., FS1, Apple TV). This is the second of the two scheduled meetings between the southeastern teams in the regular season.
Here’s what you need to know ahead of the match.
History
The Lions are 2-1-2 in the all-time, regular-season series and 2-2-2 in all competitions. Orlando City is 1-1-0 at home in the regular season. Every game between the two teams (aside from the draws) has been decided by a single goal.
Tonight’s hosts have gotten the better of Orlando City recently, including a 2-0-2 mark in four meetings across all competitions since the start of last season. The teams most recently met on June 19 at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte and played to a 2-2 draw. The hosts struck first with an early Kerwin Vargas goal and the Lions pulled one back through Duncan McGuire in the second half. But despite Charlotte going down a man on Scott Arfield’s red card, Brandt Bronico restored the hosts’ lead shortly after McGuire’s strike. Facundo Torres struck back moments later but the Lions could not find a winner on the road.
The previous match was also a draw at Bank of America Stadium, finishing in a 1-1 draw on Aug. 30, 2023. Enzo Copetti’s late penalty appeared to wrap things up for the hosts on a rainy night in Charlotte, but Martin Ojeda’s seeing-eye set piece equalized just before stoppage time as the teams split the points.
Charlotte claimed a 1-0 “home” victory in U.S. Open Cup play on May 9 of last year. That game took place at Mecklenburg County Sportsplex in Matthews, NC, rather than at the club’s regular stadium. The first matchup of the 2023 season didn’t go any better for Orlando City, finishing as a 2-1 Charlotte win at Exploria Stadium on March 18. Copetti and Vargas put Charlotte up 2-0 by halftime. Ojeda pulled one back, but the Lions were wasteful in front of goal and couldn’t pull level.
The teams met at Bank of America Stadium on Aug. 21, 2022. After a scoreless first half, Ercan Kara put the Lions ahead on the road, only to see McKinze Gaines equalize just four minutes later. Tesho Akindele’s late goal lifted Orlando to a 2-1 victory.
Orlando City won the first-ever meeting between the sides on April 30, 2022 at Exploria Stadium. Ruan scored the opening goal and set up Torres on the counter for the second as the Lions took a 2-0 lead into the locker room. Christian Fuchs scored from the spot after Rodrigo Schlegel was called for a foul in the box in the second half, but that was as close as Charlotte got in what was ultimately a 2-1 Orlando victory.
Overview
Orlando City enters tonight’s match on a two-game winning streak, with both victories coming at home by 3-0 scorelines. The most recent came Saturday against the New England Revolution, following a victory over Nashville two weeks ago. The Lions finally climbed above .500 with Saturday’s win against the Revs and pulled level at 5-5-4 at home on the season.
Charlotte enters with one of the best defensive records in Major League Soccer. Only Columbus (28) has given up fewer goals than the North Carolina side’s 31. Tonight’s visitors lost 2-1 at Montreal Saturday night and is 0-2-1 since returning from the Leagues Cup break. In an 0-2-1 road slump, Charlotte is 4-7-3 away from home in 2024.
Orlando City will need to be patient but also try to build a volume of shots against Charlotte’s stout defense, led by goalkeeper Kristijan Kahlina, who has posted 100 saves on the season. That’s nearly double Pedro Gallese’s 54 saves on the year, but El Pulpo has played in five fewer games due to international duty. Still, the key to beating Charlotte is to get some goals on the board, as the visitors’ offense has found the net just 32 times this season — third fewest in the Eastern Conference.
“Charlotte is a team that we’ve played not long ago, but they have three or four additions to their squad, and we are making reference to them too,” Orlando City Head Coach Oscar Pareja said ahead of the game. “We also know those new players and inclusions in the group change their dynamics. We are aware of how we can play them or how we can contend with them. Like any other game, we’re going to try and do our best and get our points. It’s our normal routine.”
The Lions will be without Mason Stajduhar (lower leg), who started the match in Charlotte in June, and David Brekalo (thigh). Charlotte will be without Jahlane Forbes (hip), while leading scorer Patrick Agyemang (foot) is questionable.
Match Content
- Our most recent epsidode of the PawedCast includes our key matchups and score predictions for today’s match, as well as a preview of the game.
Projected Lineups
Orlando City (4-2-3-1)
Goalkeeper: Pedro Gallese.
Defenders: Rafael Santos, Robin Jansson, Rodrigo Schlegel, Dagur Dan Thorhallsson.
Defensive Midfielders: Cesar Araujo, Wilder Cartagena.
Attacking Midfielders: Ivan Angulo, Martin Ojeda, Facundo Torres.
Forwards: Ramiro Enrique.
Charlotte FC (4-2-3-1)
Goalkeeper: Kristijan Kahlina.
Defenders: Jere Uronen, Tim Ream, Adilson Malanda, Nathan Byrne.
Defensive Midfielders: Djibril Diani, Ashley Westwood.
Attacking Midfielders: Kerwin Vargas, Pep Biel, Liel Abada.
Forward: Karol Swiderski.
Referees
REF: Marcos DeOliveira.
AR1: Logan Brown.
AR2: Ricardo Ocampo.
4TH: Lorenzo Hernandez.
VAR: Daniel Radford.
AVAR: Robert Schaap.
How to Watch
Match Time: 8:15 p.m.
Venue: Inter&Co Stadium — Orlando
TV/Live Stream: FS1, MLS Season Pass on Apple TV.
Radio: FM 96.9 The Game (English), Mega 97.1 FM (Spanish).
Twitter: For rapid reaction and live updates, follow along at @TheManeLand, as well as Orlando City’s official Twitter feed (@OrlandoCitySC).
Enjoy the match. Go City!
Lion Links
Lion Links: 9/18/24
Duncan McGuire likes scoring goals, the Pride are impressive, Champions League results, and more.
Welcome to Wednesday, Mane Landers. It’s match day, so I hope you are hyped for a midweek showdown with Charlotte FC. So, put on your purple, and tell you boss you don’t care about the dress code. If you haven’t done so yet, there’s still time to listen to the latest episode of The Mane Land PawedCast to help get you ready after you check out today’s links. Let’s get to it.
McGuire Happy to Score
Duncan McGuire’s goal against the New England Revolution Saturday night was his first MLS strike since June. That kind of drought isn’t something he’s used to, and he was away at the Olympics for part of that time, but he said he’s just happy to contribute to the team winning. McGuire will look to continue his scoring in tonight’s match against Charlotte FC. The Lions will need McGuire and others to contribute in this crucial Eastern Conference match. If you’re unsure whether to attend in person, take a look at all the cool stuff the club is doing tonight. Check back later today for our match preview.
The Pride are Scary Good
The still undefeated Orlando Pride are very, very good. This is obvious to anyone that looks at the standings or the records being broken on a weekly basis. Still, it’s one thing to know it and another to see it. SBNation’s Southern Sylvs got a firsthand look at the team and the experience watching the Pride at the last match against the Kansas City Current at Inter&Co Stadium. Sylvs was impressed with the atmosphere and the club, despite what I thought wasn’t their best outing.
Banda Still in Contention
The Orlando Pride’s Barbra Banda hasn’t scored as many goals as the Current’s Temwa Chawinga but that doesn’t mean she’s out of the NWSL MVP race. She has contributed quite a bit in her time with the club, and I expect that she will start putting in goals and providing assists again soon. How well the Pride do in the regular season will also likely impact the MVP selection.
Americans in the Champions League
Liverpool may have defeated AC Milan 3-1 in the first of eight UEFA Champions League matches for each club, but Christian Pulisic did score the first goal of the match.
Why pass the ball when it’s so much easier to simply score the goal yourself? That was pretty much it for AC Milan as Liverpool scored three unanswered goals to secure the victory.
Earlier in the day, Weston McKennie scored in Juventus’ 3-1 win over PSV. It was very much a right place, right time goal for the American.
lt was a good day for the Americans, and plenty of other USMNT players will be in action this week across different leagues and competitions.
Free Kicks
- In the least surprising news ever, the Orlando Pride once again topped the Goal.com NWSL Power Rankings.
- The Orlando Pride’s Ally Lemos and the U-20 USWNT will face Korea DPR’s U-20 squad in the semifinals of the 2024 FIFA Under-20 Women’s World Cup today.
- Orlando City B defender Alex Freeman made the MLS NEXT Pro “On the Rise” list thanks to his very good recent run of form.
- Like so many players, Lynn Williams was greatly impacted by the career of Alex Morgan. Especially that time she wore the No.13 for the USWNT.
- Former USWNT star Megan Rapinoe praised the younger generation of players that won the Olympic Gold. She also recognized that the players of her generation may have held back the success of the new generation. Now, the team is theirs.
- As I mentioned above, Liverpool may have won its match, but Alisson Becker is still frustrated that football’s governing bodies aren’t consulting players on the number of matches over the many competitions that said players will participate in. He’s not wrong.
- Manchester United decimated third-division Barnsley 7-0 in its English Cup match.
- This test is a chance to prove you are a UEFA Champions League savant by answering 36 questions about the teams in this year’s competition.
- Billionaire Marcelo Claure has purchased 10% of New York City FC, and their we’ll-have-it-eventually stadium. Just another reason for Don Garber to kowtow to NYCFC.
That will do it for today. We will have your match recap after the game tonight. Vamos Orlando!
Lion Links
Lion Links: 9/17/24
Rafael Santos up for Goal of the Matchday, Lions earn recognition, stories to watch around MLS, and more.
It wasn’t a perfect weekend for Orlando’s soccer teams, but it was close. Orlando City, the Orlando Pride and Orlando City B went undefeated, and combined to take seven of the nine points available, which is hard to complain about. There’s no time to rest though, as the Lions will be back in action tomorrow at home against FC Dallas. As always, we have plenty to talk about today, so let’s get into the links.
Santos Strike Nominated for Goal of the Matchday
Rafael Santos opened the scoring in spectacular fashion during Orlando City’s 3-0 win over the New England Revolution, and his left-footed blast has been nominated for MLS Goal of the Matchday. With 22 minutes played, the Lions worked a short corner and Ivan Angulo found Santos free outside the box. The fullback took one touch to set the ball up before unleashing a dipping, curling effort that left a fully stretched Aljaz Ivacic with no chance. It was a special strike and a very worthy nomination. Make sure you go cast your vote for him to win it!
Lions Earn Weekly Recognition
In addition to his Goal of the Matchday nomination, Santos was also named to the starting lineup of the MLS Team of the Matchday as one of three defenders, while Facundo Torres was included on the bench. Outside of his goal, Santos also recorded two tackles and two clearances while helping the defense keep a clean sheet. Torres converted his penalty kick with venom, had 94% passing accuracy, and generally looked dangerous. Marcus Mitchell awarded Santos a 7 out of 10 and Torres a 7.5 out of 10 and Man of the Match honors in his player grades from the match, so it’s nice to see the pair get some recognition on a larger scale. Here’s hoping the good work continues!
Stories to Watch in MLS
Some of the flashier teams in the league might grab headlines on a consistent basis, but there are plenty of other intriguing stories happening around MLS. For one, the Lions are on a 6-1-1 run that has them up to fifth in the Eastern Conference with a game in hand on the Red Bulls in fourth. Martin Ojeda playing through the middle and moving Facu back out wide is a big reason why. Then there are the Colorado Rapids, a team that has the second-largest points-per-game increase from last season to this one. At the other end of things you have Charlotte FC, which has won just once in its last eight games and is in danger of missing out on the playoffs altogether.
Mikey Varas Will Coach San Diego FC
San Diego FC has found its first head coach, as it named former United States Men’s National Team interim head coach Mikey Varas to the top job. Varas spent several years with U.S. Soccer, and also was an assistant coach at FC Dallas under Luchi Gonzalez for three seasons. Aside from being the head coach of the U.S. U-20 Men’s National Team from 2021 to 2023, this will be his only other gig as a full time head coach. Now that San Diego has that vacancy filled, it can do some serious work on building its roster ahead of its inaugural MLS season next year.
Free Kicks
- The Orlando Pride held fast at the top spot of ESPN’s NWSL power rankings.
- Orlando City had a big jump, as the Lions moved up six spots to ninth in ESPN’s MLS power rankings.
- Former Orlando Pride coach Tom Sermanni has been named interim head coach of the Australian women’s national team.
- NJ/NY Gotham FC has played on every day of the week at least once during this season.
- Barcelona has extended the contract of women’s Ballon d’Or winner Aitana Bonmatí until 2028.
That’s all I have for you this morning. Vamos Orlando!
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