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César Araújo and Wilder Cartagena Are Playing Obscenely Well Together for Orlando City

An analysis of the midfield pairing of César Araújo and Wilder Cartagena’s performance during the 2024 season.

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

Supreme Court Justice Potter Stewart said in 1964 that his definition of obscenity is “I know it when I see it.” Now, obscenity is not a topic we often cover at The Mane Land, except when talking about the Professional Referee Organization, but it is the quote, rather than the topic, that I thought was prescient for the topic I want to cover today. And yes, this story drops when one of its subjects is suspended for the match tonight.

There are not a lot of statistics that can help define how effective a defensive, or holding, midfielder is. Of course there are statistics (passing completion percentage, defensive tackle win percentage, ball recoveries) that you can look at for every player and then isolate them to compare holding midfielder to holding midfielder, but even those statistics do not ever tell the full story, because they are dependent on the style of play of the team just as much as the players themselves.

Orlando City generally plays a 4-2-3-1 formation with two holding midfielders, but some teams play with only one holding midfielder, so how can you compare the statistics evenly? You can, but only to a point, and the style of play of teams requires more or less from a holding midfielder, making it even harder to compare effectiveness. Therefore, to some degree you have to default back to Supreme Court Justice Stewart and use the eye test.

Using the eye test of S. Andrew DeSalvo (alas the S. does not stand for Supreme Court Justice or even just Supreme, though perhaps I should think about a name change), I have been wildly impressed for three years now by the play of César Araújo and Wilder Cartagena. Both players arrived at Orlando City in 2022 — Araújo before the season began and Cartagena in August during the transfer window — and have been mainstays on the field since joining the team.. The table below shows their MLS regular-season stats since 2022, and illustrates how both players have started and played nearly 90% of the games and minutes that they could have played in MLS play:

Fbref.com tracks and codes players’ performances by position, and among MLS players who are classified as pure midfielders (as opposed to a player like Facundo Torres, who they classify as a hybrid midfielder and forward), Araújo ranks sixth and Cartagena 33rd in minutes played during the past two seasons. Those ranks would likely be even better if both players were a little bit better about controlling their tempers and their aggressiveness (Araújo has 18 yellow cards and Cartagena 14 yellow cards and a red card since the beginning of the 2022 season).

As I mentioned earlier, there are not a lot of publicly available statistics that help quantify the play of holding midfielders as compared to one another, but one that is pretty important for every player is plus/minus. A player’s plus/minus is a pretty simple measure. All it does is subtract the goals conceded by a team when a player is on the field from the goals scored by a team when a player is off the field. While it is difficult to blame a striker for a goal conceded by the defense, or conversely reward a defender for a goal scored by a striker, in the macro sense over an entire season, I think it is instructive to look at plus/minus and consider whether the data backs up the aforementioned eye test.

Considering only the players who have played more than 500 minutes in 2024, here is the full plus/minus heatmap (red is good and blue is not as good) for Orlando City thus far this season (includes all competitions and own goals):

Mirror, mirror on the wall, who has been the hottest of them all? Why, that is Araújo and Cartagena, of course, as both players are +15 for the full season across all competitions. They have not always played next to each other in the midfield, as there have been injuries and substitutions, and Cartagena also played center back for more than 600 minutes this season. But in looking at the chart above, and also considering the eye test about who influences the games for the Lions, it is pretty clear that the eye test and the numbers match up here, and it is not just a feeling that Orlando City has an elite paring at holding midfield. It is, in fact, a fact.

I have another dataset that I have been tracking all season that evaluates Orlando City’s performance by offensive grouping, and in looking at all the offensive groupings where Araújo and Cartagena have played side by side in the midfield, the team is +13 across those minutes as you can see from the chart below (excludes own goals):

Translating +13 over 1,511 minutes to a per-90-minute metric, when Araújo and Cartagena play next to one another the team is +0.77 goals per 90 minutes, whereas during all the other minutes the team is -0.21 goals per 90 minutes. This nets out to an increase of 0.98 goals per 90 minutes, meaning that the Orlando City lineups with Araújo and Cartagena in the holding midfield roles are nearly one goal per game better than any lineup without the two of them playing side by side. I’d say that portfolio is strong to quite strong.

An old soccer cliché is that a team wants to have a midfield destroyer in its lineup, and Orlando City has that times two with Araújo and Cartagena when they play side by side. I believe that it is no coincidence that as the team has settled into a consistent lineup and consistent substitution pattern, the Lions have really taken off and have become one of the hottest teams in MLS with eight wins in their last 11 matches.

I know obscenity when I see it, and the Lions are looking obscenely good right now.

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Orlando City

Orlando City Signs Goalkeeper Carlos Mercado

Orlando City has signed OCB goalkeeper Carlos Mercado through the end of the year.

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Image courtesy of Orlando City B / Mark Thor

Orlando City announced this afternoon that the club has signed OCB goalkeeper Carlos Mercado to a first-team contract. The deal runs through 2024 with club options for 2025, 2026, and 2027.

“Carlos has done a great job this year with Orlando City B and has really performed well for us,” Executive Vice President of Soccer Operations and General Manager Luiz Muzzi said in a club press release. “With Mason Stajduhar’s injury earlier this season and Carlos’ performances with OCB, the opportunity has opened up where we don’t have to look outside the club to fill that position and can give a young goalkeeper an opportunity to continue developing and pushing our current goalkeeping corps. Carlos has shown us that he has the talent and work ethic to deserve that opportunity this season.”

Mercado joined OCB prior to the start of the 2024 MLS NEXT Pro season and split time with Javier Otero. When Stajduhar broke his tibia and fibula on June 28 in a game against New York City FC, Otero was forced to join the first team as the primary backup. As a result, Mercado became OCB’s full-time number one.

So far this season, Mercado has made 17 appearances for the Young Lions, conceding 26 goals and making 63 saves. The Laredo, TX, native has two shutouts on the season and a 1.53 goals-against average. He has an 8-4-5 record between the sticks this year and has helped his team win four shootouts.

Mercado signed a short-term contract with the first team earlier this season to back up starter Pedro Gallese. The game away to Toronto FC was his only time with the first team.

“I’ve given everything to this dream, fighting day in and day out, even when the path seemed impossible. Orlando City has invested and believed in me as a player, even when I thought I had nothing left,” Mercado said in the club’s press release. “The club has given me a chance to prove myself and I’m ready to give everything I have in return. I want to say thank you to the club, César Baena, and Marcos Machado for their guidance this year and for this opportunity.” 

Mercado played for the FC Dallas academy in his youth, earning call-ups to the United States U-16 National Team and Mexico U-18 National Team. He played collegiately at the University of Incarnate Word in San Antonio, TX, before joining San Antonio FC of the USL Championship.

The goalkeeper made his professional debut in 2021, coming on for the final 29 minutes in a 3-0 win over Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC. He stayed with San Antonio FC through the 2023 season before joining OCB.

What It Means for Orlando City

Stajduhar’s injury earlier this year means Orlando City is down to two goalkeepers on its senior roster. While the club could have signed an experienced player as a third goalkeeper, the club’s technical staff is obviously comfortable with Gallese and Otero as the top two this season. The open roster spot provides an opportunity to reward Mercado for his play with OCB.

It’s highly unlikely that Mercado will see the field for the first team or even be included in the first team this season unless there is an injury ahead of him on the depth chart. Instead, he’ll continue to start for the Young Lions. This deal only runs through the end of this year, but he’ll have the opportunity to earn a spot in future squads in training and with his play with the second team.

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Orlando City

Intelligence Report: Orlando City vs. Columbus Crew

Find out everything you need to know about the Columbus Crew, courtesy of someone who knows them best.

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

We have a quick turnaround this week as Orlando City played one of its two remaining midweek matches on Wednesday, and came away with a comfortable 2-0 win over Charlotte FC. If the Lions want to keep the good vibes going on Saturday, they’ll need to beat one of the toughest teams in the league and do so on the road, as they travel up to Ohio to face the defending champion Columbus Crew.

A showdown with Columbus means I spoke to Caleb Denorme, one of the writers over at the always excellent Massive Report. Caleb was very helpful in getting us up to speed on this year’s edition of the Crew, and we appreciate his help.

Columbus has the best defense in the league by a comfortable margin. What’s made the back line so good this year?

Caleb Denorme: I think it’s a combination of finally learning the system and the development of the players at the position. Steven Moreira and Rudy Camacho are already experienced
defenders that you can throw into any starting roster in MLS. It took time for them to
adapt to Nancy’s system, but it is evident now that they have taken it in stride. The
development side is something that needs to be talked about too. Both Max Arfsten and
Mo Farsi are products of MLS NEXT Pro and have become no-contest starters at both
wingback spots. Yevhen Cheberko has improved as well, fighting for time with Malte
Amundsen, who was one of the Crew’s best players last season. So, the combination of
having time to learn Nancy’s system and giving these young players time to develop has
been massive.

As if that wasn’t enough, the Crew also has one of the best attacks in MLS. Cucho Hernandez and Diego Rossi get a ton of the headlines, but who are some other guys that help make the attack what it is?

CD: Obviously Cucho Hernandez and Diego Rossi are the spearhead of the attack. Hernandez
is going to do his thing regardless, and Rossi has really proved a lot of Columbus fans
wrong after he had a slow start when he first arrived. A lot of praise has to go to the
wingbacks as well. The rotation of Farsi, Arfsten, DeJuan Jones, Yaw Yeboah, and
Marcelo Herrera have added a new dimension to the attack that did not exist before. The
ability of each wingback to whip accurate crosses in to Hernandez and Rossi and cut in
when necessary is a dangerous asset to have. They also cause the opposing defense to be
stretched, which creates more room for the attackers inside. If there is one thing opposing
teams do not want, it’s Cucho Hernandez having more space inside the box.

Despite playing a metric ton of games this year, Columbus’ form has shown no signs of dipping due to fatigue and match load. Is there any concern that the packed schedule will eventually take its toll, or does Wilfried Nancy seem to have struck the perfect balance of navigating the busy calendar?

CD: The Crew have been the one team in recent memory who went far in the Concacaf
Champions Cup and did not crash and burn in league play. I think most of the praise has
to be put on the Columbus front office and Nancy himself. Issa Tall (and Tim
Bezbatchenko) did a phenomenal job constructing this roster. The Crew’s roster is the
perfect balance of spending for DPs, investing in young talent and getting high
performance out of MLS veterans. There is not a distinct position group that comes to
mind as “weak” when you think of Columbus, and that is thanks to the front office. On
the other hand, Nancy has done his job as well. Getting the right team in place is one
thing, but it takes a talented coach to take those players and get them to perform
consistently. Nancy has found the balance where he can plug a player in, and they
perform up to the task almost every single time. It’s a masterclass combination of
coaching and front office moves.

Will any players be unavailable due to injury, suspension, etc.? What is your projected starting XI and score prediction?

CD: The only player listed on the injury report is Evan Bush, who has missed a large part of
the season with a broken arm.

As long as nothing happens midweek (knock on wood) against Toronto FC, expect a strong Columbus lineup against Orlando. Those decisions will depend on what lineup Nancy goes with against Toronto. If it’s a rotated lineup midweek, the Black & Gold will roll out the starters at the weekend. I think Patrick Schulte will be between the posts, with Moreira, Camacho and Amundsen at the center back spots. I’d say Arfsten and Farsi will start out wide, with Sean Zawadzki and Darlington Nagbe in the middle. Front three will most likely be headed by Hernandez, Rossi and Christian Ramirez. Be on the lookout for what happens midweek though, because that will determine what the Crew go with on Saturday. (Editor’s note: The Crew rotated somewhat at Toronto and will likely play their strongest lineup.)

Score prediction not provided.


Thank you to Caleb for the excellent insight on Columbus. Vamos Orlando!

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Lion Links

Lion Links: 9/20/24

Facundo Torres named to Team of the Matchday, Orlando Pride face Bay FC tonight, USMNT’s World Cup goals, and more.

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Image courtesy of Orlando Pride / Mark Thor

Happy Friday! I don’t know about you, but September has been flying by for me. I’m working throughout most of the weekend, but I am looking forward to catching a few games from a packed slate of soccer over the next few days. Before we dive into today’s links, let’s all wish a happy birthday to Orlando Pride rookie Cori Dyke!

Facundo Torres Makes Team of the Matchday

Orlando City forward Facundo Torres was named to the MLS Team of the Matchday for his role in the team’s 2-0 win over Charlotte FC. The 24-year-old scored on the volley to give the Lions the lead and also had three key passes to keep Orlando’s offense cooking. He’s been on fire as of late, scoring four goals over the past three games. I’m a bit surprised not to see other Lions at least make the bench of this Team of the Matchday, particularly with Martin Ojeda and Robin Jansson providing strong performances.

Orlando Pride Take On Bay FC Tonight

I hope you all got plenty of rest last night, because the Orlando Pride have a 10:30 p.m. match on the road tonight against Bay FC. It’s the second match between the two teams this season, with Orlando winning 1-0 at home on May 11. Bay FC turned a corner in the time since that match, climbing up to eighth in the standings. This will also be the Pride’s first trip to Paypal Park to take on the expansion team. Pride forward Julie Doyle, who was born in California and played four seasons at Santa Clara University, spoke on how she’s excited to play in the Bay area again. She also weighed in on how the Pride’s defense has extended beyond the back line during this impressive season.

USMNT Goals for 2026 World Cup Revealed

United States Men’s National Team Head Coach Mauricio Pochettino stated that the aim is for the U.S. to make the quarterfinals when it hosts the 2026 FIFA World Cup.

“The truth is the quarterfinal is the target,” the head coach said on an episode of the It’s Called Soccer podcast. “They were very clear and I am very honest to you and I think that was the idea, the challenge. They know that it is going to be difficult but I am a person and we are people that really, really believe that we can. We all think that the talented group can perform better and we accept the challenge.”

With the expanded format that includes 48 teams, the U.S. would need to advance out of the group stage and win twice in the knockout stage to reach the quarterfinals. Pochettino has plenty to do to get the team firing on all cylinders before then. Copa America exposed some of the USMNT’s struggles in the midfield, and the new head coach will need to figure out who will spearhead the attack as well.

Champions League Opening Round Wraps Up

The first round of Champions League matches in this new format concluded on Thursday. AS Monaco had a big 2-1 win over Barcelona, with 18-year-old striker George Ilenikhena scoring the winner in his Champions League debut. Barcelona’s Lamine Yamal scored his first Champions League goal as well, but the Spanish club couldn’t overcome a red card to Eric Garcia just 10 minutes into the match.

Jose Gimenez scored a late winner to give Atletico Madrid a 2-1 win against RB Leipzig in Spain. Bayer Leverkusen cruised to a 4-0 win over Feyenoord, with 21-year-old striker Florian Wirtz scoring twice in the first half. Benfica also kicked off its Champions League campaign with a win, beating Red Star Belgrade 2-1 in Serbia. French club Brest got its first European competition win by winning 2-1 against Austria’s Sturm Graz. Arsenal and Atalanta fought to a scoreless draw in Italy, with Arsenal’s David Raya making a showstopping pair of saves to deny Mateo Retegui from the spot.

Free Kicks

  • Former Orlando Pride player Thais Reiss has torn her ACL and MCL in training with Spokane Zephyr FC in the USL Super League. It’s unfortunate news, and hopefully she’s able to make a smooth recovery.
  • Neither of Orlando City’s goals against Charlotte FC on Wednesday were nominated for MLS Goal of the Matchday, but that’s a testament to just how many great goals were scored in the midweek. Anderson Julio’s goal from downtown for Real Salt Lake is definitely worth checking out if you haven’t already.

That’s all I have for you today, Mane Landers. I hope you all have a fantastic Friday and rest of your weekend!

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