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Orlando City’s Most Successful Offensive and Defensive Lineups

An analysis of the best offensive and defensive groupings for Orlando City this season across all competitions.

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3 months ago

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

Soccer is a game that has cheer leaders but not cheerleaders, so there is usually no opportunity to hear people chanting out “two, four, six, eight, who do we appreciate?” at soccer matches. In this article, however, we are going to offer some appreciation, and look back at a two, a four, a six and….an 11 that we appreciate.

Let’s start with the two, and take a look at midfield tandem of César Araújo and Wilder Cartagena. Orlando City’s preferred partnership started 23 games alongside one another in all competitions in 2024, and in those games Orlando City went 13-4-6.

CompetitionWinsLossesDrawsPoints per GameGoal Differential
Concacaf Champions Cup1012.00+3
Leagues Cup1021.67+3
MLS11432.00+13
Total13461.96+19

Taking a quick look at the final MLS standings, the 2.00 points per game in MLS play that Orlando City averaged when Araújo and Cartagena started together in the midfield would have ranked only behind Inter Miami’s 2.18 points per game across all 29 MLS teams and was 31% better than Orlando City’s actual final tally of 1.53 points per game (15-12-7). Doing the math, if the Lions were 11-4-3 with Araújo and Cartagena starting together (including six straight wins in their most recent six starts) and 15-12-7 overall, then they must have been 4-8-4 when it was a different starting midfield two, and 4-8-4 is a paltry 1.00 points per game, something closer to a team in the bottom third of the league. Orlando City’s lineup with their top midfield partnership was equivalent to a team on a top-two pace, a one-two punch that was frequently too powerful for an opponent to handle.

Moving on from two to four, let’s take a look at Orlando City’s back lines throughout the season to see which combination of four performed the foremost (ok, I’ll stop) throughout the season. There was a period of time early in the season when the Lions deployed a three-man back line with two wingbacks for a few games, but once they got everyone back from international matches and back to health they have rolled with the four-man back line ever since.

On the season Orlando City has played 41 games (34 in MLS, four in Concacaf Champions Cup, and three in Leagues Cup), so there have been 3,690 total minutes played by defensive groupings so far. Here are the six groupings that played at least 5% of the minutes, and how they have performed this season (own goals scored by Orlando City’s opponents have been excluded, players listed left to right on how they played positionally):

Back LineMinutes% of MinutesGoals AgainstGoals Against per 90 MinsGoal Differential
Santos, Jansson, Schlegel, Thorhallsson1,22733.3%231.69+1
Smith, Jansson, Brekalo, Thorhallsson49613.4%91.63+3
Schlegel, Cartagena, Brekalo38610.5%40.93-3
Smith, Jansson, Schlegel, Thorhallsson37910.3%71.66+4
Santos, Jansson, Brekalo, Thorhallsson3679.9%51.23-2
Santos, Jansson, Schlegel, Smith2627.1%31.03+6

Interestingly, the three-man back line of Rodrigo Schlegel, Cartagena, and David Brekalo has the best goals against per 90 minutes rating, giving up less than one goal per game, but the team struggled to score while in this lineup — odd since a three-man back line allows for seven players to play higher up the field, as opposed to only six when in the standard four-man back line. I chalk a lot of this up to it being an unfamiliar formation and one that was played early in the season when the team was trying to figure out how to mix the attacking players together, rather than an issue caused by a three-man back line.

We are focusing on the fours here though, and while the teams preferred back line clearly appears to be Rafael Santos, Robin Jansson, Schlegel, and Dagur Dan Thórhallsson, the data points to two other groupings as ones that played at least 250 minutes together and had better goal differentials. The Santos, Jansson, Schlegel, and Kyle Smith back line did not debut until September, but it was effective against Charlotte (late game), Dallas (starting four), Philadelphia (starting four), and Cincinnati (starting four), and had the second-best goals against per 90 minutes rating of the most used lineups.

The Smith, Jansson, Schlegel, and Thórhallsson back line played together in nine different games — a mix of four starts and five games where they subbed into that grouping. While it was not a grouping that was difficult to break down and score against, as evidenced by the 1.66 goals against per 90 minutes, they were +4 in only 379 minutes together, so the Lions were banging in the goals at a rate of 2.61 goals scored per 90 minutes.

Sometimes the best defense is a good offense, but when we are trying to find the best defensive group of four, we want the best defense to be the best defense, so it looks like it would be either Santos, Jansson, Schlegel, and Smith or Santos, Jansson, Brekalo, and Thórhallsson. Alas, we never saw Santos, Jansson, Brekalo, and Smith together during the season, so there is no data around that grouping, and with Brekalo being seemingly the forgotten man in recent weeks, I do not think we are going to see that lineup in the playoffs either, unless there is an injury or a card situation.

For my four I’m going to go with the data, and while I expect that Thórhallsson will probably start over Smith in the next match, the data says the lineup should read Santos, Jansson, Schlegel, and Smith, with their low goals against and high goal differential.

We will yell out fore and drive our way over to six, and move from the defensive grouping to the offensive one. It is rather amazing how many different offensive combinations have played at least one minute this season. By my count, there were 107 unique offensive groupings that the Lions utilized throughout the 41 games.

While on the defensive side, Orlando City settled into a lineup that ended up playing almost exactly one-third of all minutes, on the offensive side, the most common lineup just barely reached half that number, and the six lineups that played the most together did not even play half of the total minutes available this season (players listed alphabetically, as I could not come up with an easy way to depict the offensive formation in a table).

Attacking GroupMinutes% of MinutesGoals ScoredGoals per 90 MinutesGoal Differential
Angulo, Araujo, Cartagena, Enrique, Ojeda, Torres61516.7%111.61+7
Angulo, Araujo, Cartagena, McGuire, Ojeda, Torres3399.2%82.12+3
Angulo, Araujo, Lodeiro, McGuire, Muriel, Ojeda, Torres1774.8%52.54+3
Angulo, Araujo, Lodeiro, McGuire, Muriel, Torres1644.4%21.10-1
Angulo, Araujo, Lodeiro, McGuire, Muriel, Torres1484.0%42.43+1
Angulo, Araujo, Cartagena, Lodeiro, McGuire, Torres1273.4%10.71+1

No other attacking grouping even played one game’s worth of minutes together all season, but I do want to include the statistics from three additional groupings, because as you see here they were prolific, albeit in small samples:

Attacking GroupMinutes% of MinutesGoals ScoredGoals per 90 MinutesGoal Differential
Angulo, Araujo, Cartagena, Enrique, Muriel, Torres722.0%33.75+2
Araujo, Cartagena, Enrique, Lodeiro, Ojeda, Torres641.7%45.63+4
Angulo, Cartagena, Enrique, Lodeiro, Muriel, Torres381.0%37.11+2

I do not expect that any of these groupings would actually continue to score at this rate if they played more minutes together, but the two lineups with Araújo and Cartagena seem like lineups that the Lions could use if trailing, and even the bottom row where Nico Lodeiro would be in for Araújo could be possible as well, since Cartagena is generally more of an offensive threat than Araújo if the coaching staff decided to move to one holding midfielder or if they needed to choose one of the two to sub out.

Going back to the commonly used lineups, the question still remains on whether the group of five (Ivan Angulo, Araújo, Cartagena, Martin Ojeda and Facundo Torres) should play more minutes with Ramiro Enrique or Duncan McGuire. The data says they are more efficient with McGuire, to the tune of an additional half a goal per 90 minutes, but most of the McGuire minutes with this group have been played later in the match, when Orlando City was already ahead and the opposition was tired and chasing an equalizer. Enrique’s minutes have nearly all been as a starter since mid-summer, so he generally faces a fresh defense and an even scoreline, so the defenders are not taking as many risks.

Two lineups that are not in either of these tables, because they were each used for only 30 minutes this season, are Araújo, Cartagena, Enrique, Luis Muriel, Ojeda, and Torres and Araújo, Cartagena, Enrique, McGuire, Muriel, and Torres, and they each scored one goal in their time together for a goals-per-90-minutes average of 3.00. Both of those lineups do not contain Angulo, which sacrifices his speed and recovery ability to get back on defense, but they do include every primary creative attacking player except Lodeiro. The samples are too small to be quantitatively confident in their success, but the qualitative side of looking at those names and thinking about how they could line up is one that is exciting to consider with the wealth of attacking talent that they possess.

All of that said, I am going to to cheat a little bit and choose for my six to be Angulo, Araújo, Cartagena, Duncmiro Enriguire, Ojeda, and Torres, a grouping that is +10 for the season in goal differential and averages 1.79 goals scored per 90 minutes while only giving up 0.85 goals scored per 90 minutes. The group with Enrique is better defensively, giving up 0.59 goals per 90 minutes, as compared to 1.33 for the group with McGuire, while the group with McGuire is better offensively, scoring 2.12 goals per 90 minutes, as compared to 1.61 with Enrique.

Alright, so we have our two, our four and our six, and as promised we are going to skip the eight and go to the 11. If we look at the full 11-player lineup that we chose (using Pedro Gallese as the goalkeeper), we had a back line of Santos, Jansson, Schlegel, and Smith; holding midfielders Araújo and Cartagena; attacking midfielders Angulo, Ojeda, and Torres; and Enrique or McGuire at striker. That lineup played together only twice all season, both with Enrique as the striker, and they were +3 during the 110 minutes that they were on the field together, scoring three goals and giving up zero.

It is hard to lose when you give up zero goals, though Orlando City did manage to do so against Cruz Azul (kind of, it was a shootout loss after a draw), but when you average scoring 2.45 goals per 90 minutes and give up 0.00 goals per 90 minutes, that sounds like a winning lineup.

In fact, of all the lineups that played together for more than 75 minutes this season, that lineup does have the best goal differential per 90 minutes. Just as with some of the attacking groupings, there were some lineups that had better goal differentials per 90 minutes in a limited sample size of minutes, but in looking at the groups that played the most minutes, it is the 11-man group from the previous paragraph that performed the best per 90 minutes.

The 11-man lineup that was used the most was Gallese as goalkeeper; a back line of Santos, Jansson, Schlegel, and Thórhallsson; holding midfielders Araújo and Cartagena; attacking midfielders Angulo, Ojeda, and Torres; and Enrique as striker. That group was +7 for the season in nearly 300 minutes together, a goal differential of +2.17 per 90 minutes, which is also Borat-level very nice.

While it was a rough beginning to the season for Orlando City, as the year went on the Lions settled into lineups and rotations that maximized their abilities, as evidenced by their season-ending run of 11-3-3 in all competitions since the calendar turned to July. Óscar Pareja has identified his preferred lineup, and the data and the gut feelings he has around who to play are nearly exactly matched in terms of playing the right players in combination with one another.

Whether it is the two, the four, the six or the 11, Pareja knows who to play, I reckon.

Vamos Orlando!

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Orlando City

Previewing Luis Muriel’s Second Year in Purple

Orlando City needs more production from its Colombian striker in 2025, so what’s the best way to get it?

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9 hours ago

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January 10, 2025

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

The 2025 season will be Luis Muriel’s second as an Orlando City player following a 2024 campaign that wasn’t bad but was uneven and marked by potential that ultimately went unfulfilled. With the Colombian striker still occupying a Designated Player slot, there’s a lot of questions about how he’s going to fit into the team.

With him occupying a precious DP slot and commanding the highest salary on the team by a comfortable margin, it’s essential that the Lions get maximum output from him on the field. What’s the best way to do that, though? With the departure of Facundo Torres and Muriel getting a full off-season and preseason under his belt, there are a few different ways to achieve that goal.

Striker

The obvious answer is the reason that he was brought to the City Beautiful in the first place — to play him at striker. Duncan McGuire likely won’t be available until sometime in April, meaning that Muriel will be duking it out in preseason with Ramrio Enrique (and to a lesser extent, Jack Lynn) for the right to start as the tip of Orlando City’s proverbial spear. He got some time there last year in the first few months of the season, but ultimately his production, or lack thereof, opened the door for McGuire, and later Enrique, to supplant him.

The most straightforward way to get him in the team is to get him scoring in the volume that he’s shown himself to be capable of. It wouldn’t require any alterations to the formation or moving players around to areas where they might not be comfortable. Orlando could try to go big for a winger with proven goal-scoring threat to help replace the Facundo Torres-sized hole on the right wing, Ivan Angulo can stay out left, Martin Ojeda retains his place at the 10, and things keep ticking along.

The big question is whether he can find the back of the net consistently enough to justify going this route, particularly when McGuire and Enrique have proven themselves to be capable of providing solid scoring output. However, if he shows better than Enrique and Lynn in preseason, this is probably the most likely route.

Winger

Another solution, and probably the one that would be second easiest, would be to deploy him at the winger spot vacated by the now-departed Torres. This would allow Enrique and McGuire to compete for the no.9 slot, while filling Torres’ place with someone who is capable of creating and producing goals for others at the same, if not higher, level, and it wouldn’t require any formation or positional shifts.

A downside is that the right-footed Muriel wouldn’t be inverting the way that Torres did, which would tweak some of the team’s tactics and patterns of play in the final third. Additionally, it would be gambling on Muriel improving his goal-scoring numbers despite being shifted out wide and presumably not having as many looks at goal.

In this scenario, the Lions likely aren’t going out and adding a third Designated Player, or if they are, it’s probably an attempt to upgrade over Angulo — something which just doesn’t seem super likely to me, given how ever-present he’s been in the lineup since joining the team. I also don’t know if I can see Luiz Muzzi and Co. standing pat with the current state of a roster that couldn’t win it all and then lost its best player.

No. 10

A different route would be to trot him out at the no.10 position, where he often found himself deployed when coming on as a substitute during the second half of the year. The advantages of this solution are that it would allow the Colombian to utilize his considerable passing range and ability on the ball while minimizing his need to contribute large amounts of goals. On the downside, it would require shifting Ojeda out of the central position that he occupied to such great effect during the second half of the 2024 season. While Muriel has played well in this position, I can’t see the decision-makers being willing to gamble on Ojeda regressing if moved out wide again.

Shadow Striker/Roving Playmaker

The final, and most intriguing (and complex) of the options would be to deploy him as a shadow striker/roaming playmaker as part of a front two. Muriel drops into the hole behind the striker and moves around, finding space just behind his fellow forward, popping up wherever the spaces are and making it difficult for teams to zero in on patterns of play.

Again, it would allow him to use his excellent passing and dribbling ability to create scoring chances for McGuire/Enrique, while still getting him some looks at goal. It’s also a position that he’s played at various times throughout his career, including last year, when we saw him partnered with McGuire in either a 4-4-2 or 3-5-2. The two played well together during those games, and showed signs of a flourishing partnership that ultimately wasn’t pursued further as the team got more bodies healthy and Ojeda began to shine as the central player in the three-man attacking midfield.

The biggest problem would be finding a formation that gets Orlando’s best players on the field in their best positions. A 4-4-2 would allow a midfield of Ojeda, Angulo, Wilder Cartagena, and Cesar Araujo, but Ojeda would need to be out wide and we’ve already covered why that’s an issue. A 3-5-2 would also allow for those guys to be on the field, but then Dagur Dan Thorhallsson and Rafael Santos would likely be sacrificed, and Cartagena would move to center back while Nico Lodeiro slotted into the midfield in his place. OCSC is better when Cartagena and Araujo are partnering in the midfield, and I love having Santos’ crossing ability and DDT’s versatility on the field. For me, it would be cutting off your nose to spite your face.

An interesting solution could be trying a 4-2-2-2, with Santos, Robin Jansson, Rodrigo Schlegel/David Brekalo, and Thorhallson at the back, Araujo and Cartagena as the defensive midfielders, Angulo and Ojeda as the attacking midfielders, and Enrique/McGuire and Muriel up top, with Muriel operating as the shadow striker. To get the necessary width in attack, one of the fullbacks (presumably DDT) could invert into the midfield when in possession, and one of the defensive mids (likely Cartagena) would drift out wide while Ojeda plays centrally, where he operates best. The biggest issues here are that it would necessitate a lot of tactical variation from what the team is accustomed to, requires Thorhallsson to run his guts out, and is susceptible to getting torched on the counterattack. There’s a world where it could work, but I wouldn’t expect to see it.

At the end of the day, everyone’s lives are made easier if having a full off-season and preseason under his belt helps the Colombian DP find his shooting boots and he hits the ground running as the striker in Oscar Pareja’s preferred 4-2-3-1. Orlando adds firepower at right wing, Ojeda stays in the middle, and Muriel does what he was primarily signed to do — score goals. If that doesn’t happen, there are still ways to try to get him involved, but each solution comes with its own unique set of advantages and disadvantages to navigate. Either way, Muriel’s fit during the 2025 season is an intriguing storyline to watch as we build towards the start of the new campaign. Vamos Orlando!

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Lion Links: 1/10/25

Orlando City reportedly nears signing Nicolas Rodriguez, Orlando Pride re-sign Marta, Americans abroad this weekend, and more.

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12 hours ago

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January 10, 2025

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Image courtesy of Orlando Pride / Mark Thor

Happy Friday! I’m already pretty much over this cold weather. While it was a nice change of pace, I’ve never been a huge fan of shivering in my car while waiting for the heat to get going. Thankfully, it looks like some warmer weather is coming this weekend before temperatures dip again next week. But enough about the weather, let’s get to today’s links!

Orlando City Linked With Nicolas Rodriguez

According to Fabrizio Romano, Orlando City is close to signing Colombian winger Nicolas Rodriguez from Fortaleza in Colombia’s top flight.

The 20-year-old would bring the club some needed attacking power and Orlando has open U22 Initiative slots to make it happen. The Lions have yet to make much noise this off-season beyond transferring Facundo Torres to Palmeiras, so hopefully signing Rodriguez kicks off the excitement ahead of the 2025 season. Another report has the transfer fee coming in around $2 million, with Fortaleza keeping a 30% sell-on fee if he’s sold in the future.

Marta Re-Signs With the Orlando Pride

The Orlando Pride have re-signed Marta to a new contract that will keep her in the City Beautiful through 2026. Whether or not Marta would return was the biggest question mark surrounding the club after her contract expired following a historic season that included winning both the NWSL Shield and the NWSL Championship. Marta is one of the best attacking midfielders in the league and was a finalist for both the NWSL MVP and NWSL Midfielder of the Year awards last year. Enjoy how Marta revealed the big news through the club’s social media. She definitely had me in the first half.

Keeping Up With the Americans Abroad

Goalkeeper Ethan Horvath had a stellar game in Cardiff City’s 1-0 win over Sheffield United in the FA Cup, making seven saves in the shutout. It was his first start for the club since August and he could get the nod in Cardiff’s next FA Cup match in February. Lindsey Horan had an assist in Lyon’s 2-0 road win over Dijon, while Cameron Carter-Vickers and Auston Trusty started in Celtic’s 2-0 win against Dundee United.

As for upcoming action, Joe Scally will have a chance to impress when Borussia Mönchengladbach hosts Bayern Munich on Saturday. Elsewhere in the Bundesliga, Giovanni Reyna and Borussia Dortmund will take on Bayer Leverkusen today. Serie A should feature the usual suspects on Saturday, with Christian Pulisic, Yunus Musah, and AC Milan playing Cagliari and Tim Weah, Weston McKennie, and Juventus facing off against Torino. We also might get to see Matt Turner in goal when Crystal Palace plays Stockport County in the FA Cup.

FA Cup Third Round Storylines

There’s plenty of more FA Cup soccer all over England this weekend to check out. While we were robbed from seeing Ashley Young and his son Tyler Young play against each other in Everton’s 2-0 win against Peterborough United, there are still many storylines in the third round. The heavyweight matchup is between Arsenal and Manchester United on Sunday. While it may be too much to say some of the English Premier League’s bigger clubs are on upset alert this weekend, Tottenham’s road game against Tamworth and Liverpool’s match with Accrington Stanley could prove interesting. Manchester City is set to take on a Salford City side owned by several former Manchester United players as well.

Free Kicks

That’s all I have for you today. I hope you all have a fantastic Friday and rest of your weekend!

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Orlando City

Orlando City is Often Late to the Transfer Party

Why you shouldn’t worry that we’re still waiting on Orlando City’s off-season signings.

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1 day ago

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January 9, 2025

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

Here we are yet again. It’s that time of the year when seemingly every MLS club is making moves, signing new players, and going about the business of getting better for the coming season. It’s also the time of the year when supporters of Orlando City are looking around like Vincent Vega in Pulp Fiction, wondering where the signings are for the Lions.

I’m here to tell you not to panic. As frustrating as it is, this is business as usual for Executive Vice President of Soccer Operations and General Manager Luiz Muzzi and Vice President of Soccer Operations and Technical Director Ricardo Moreira. In case you’ve forgotten, here are some late signings that the club has made over the years.

January Signings

Despite how it feels, Orlando City signs plenty of players in January. Some of those have been earlier than Jan. 9. Nicolas Lodeiro signed with the club on Jan. 4, 2024, Rafael Santos signed on Jan. 5, 2023, and Cesar Araujo signed Jan. 7, 2022. I understand if you think they shouldn’t count since it was before this exact time of the month, but some fans have been freaking out for a week.

Let’s look at those on this day of the month or later. That list includes Martin Ojeda, who became a Lion on this day in 2023. In addition, Pedro Gallese signed Jan. 17, 2020, Ramiro Enrique signed on Jan. 30, 2023, and Dagur Dan Thorhallsson signed the very next day. All four of those players were consistent starters in 2024.

February/March Signings

Muzzi and Moreira aren’t afraid to wait to see if Punxsutawney Phil sees his shadow to sign new players. Just last year, the club signed David Brekalo on Feb. 8 and Luis Muriel on Feb. 15. Muriel really came on late in the season, and Brekalo will certainly be vying to get his starting spot back in 2025.

I’ve saved my most compelling example for last. Orlando City signed Robin Jansson on March 12, 2019. All he’s done is become Orlando City’s captain and all-time appearance leader. His contributions to the club are extensive. Not too bad for a very late signing.

Historically speaking, Orlando City isn’t doing things any slower than usual. That is why I’m saying not to panic…yet. The Lions made it to the Eastern Conference final for the first time in 2024. If they want to win MLS Cup, the club will need to continue to improve the team.

Given the departure of Facundo Torres, at least one major signing needs to happen. Like you, I hope that signing happens sooner than later. Indeed, I’d like to see several signings, as the club wisely uses the money from the Torres deal to bolster the club for the upcoming season.

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