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2024 Final Four the Best Such Group in NWSL History

The final four teams in 2024 make up the best such group in NWSL history. Here’s the data that explains why.

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Image courtesy of Orlando Pride / Jeremy Reper

It is interesting to me that the term “chalk” is still used to describe a bracket playing out with all of the teams favored to win actually winning, since chalk has basically been phased out of schools and now seems to just randomly show up for kids to play with on playgrounds or sidewalks and to ensure that their hands, faces, and clothes will require deep cleaning immediately afterwards, to the great exasperation of their parents. I have two young children, so I am familiar with this exasperation. Very, very, very familiar. I never know where the chalk came from, but I know that it will always end up in my bathtub later that day.

Going chalk may be an anachronistic phrase, but it does accurately describe the results from the first round of the 2024 NWSL playoffs, as the teams seeded one through four are all still alive after their opening games. During the early NWSL years, the final four was always made up of the top four seeds, as only four teams made the playoffs. However, starting in 2021, the league expanded to six teams in the playoffs, and then this year the NWSL expanded again to an eight-team field.

During the years when there were six teams in the playoffs, the top two teams received byes to the semifinals (a.k.a. the final four, written in lower case to avoid the NCAA’s trademark lawyers), and seed No. 3 played No. six and seed No. 4 played No. 5, with the winners advancing to the final four. In 2021, the final four ended up with seeds one, two, three, and four, but in 2022, it was one, two, three, and five. Then, last season, it was one, two, four, and six. This year returned to the way it used to be, with the top four teams all advancing, which is great for soccer fans but not as great for the Pride, since the top four teams during the 2024 NWSL season were all great.

How great were they? Well, allow me to show you every team and every season in NWSL history on the chart below, stack ranked by their average points earned per game for the full season, with the top four teams in 2024 all inside the red circle (I did not include the 2020 season since it was not a standard league season):

It is a little difficult to see, but there are four dots represented inside the red circle, and those four average points earned per game are 2.31, 2.15, 2.15, and 2.12. As a quick reminder, the best possible average would be 3.00. The four seasons inside that circle are not just the top four seasons of 2024 but they are also four of the five best seasons in NWSL history — only surpassed by the 2018 North Carolina Courage’s average of 2.38. One might say that North Carolina raised up that year, if one were familiar with the work of Petey Pablo.

I did not just take my shirt off, twist it around my hand, and spin it like a helicopter, but I thought about it for far longer than was necessary.

So, four of the five best regular-season records in NWSL history all happened this year, but it is not just in points earned per game that these four teams ranked among the best in NWSL history. The next chart shows a scatterplot of points earned per game and goal differential per game, with the the same four 2024 teams included in the red circle. The color coding is a little difficult to see, but the Pride are the purple circle farthest to the right, the Current are the red circle farthest to the left and the Spirit in the black circle are slightly above Gotham in the light blue in the middle.

The teams in the upper right area of a scatterplot like this are winning most of their games and winning them handily. As I know all of you remember from algebra class, a scatterplot shows the coordinates on a Cartesian coordinate system (nerd alert), sometimes referred to as the xy plane, and the 2024 Pride’s point is shown at (2.31,1.00). The 2.31 points earned per game ranks second all-time in NWSL history and the 1.00 goal differential ranks fourth. The problem for the Pride is that not only are the three other teams remaining in the playoffs teams that won a lot of games, they also won a lot of games by a healthy margin as well (goal differentials of 1.00 for the Current (tied for fourth all-time), 0.88 for the Spirit (fifth all-time) and 0.81 for Gotham (sixth all-time)).

While the 2024 regular season may not have been competitive from top to bottom, the top four teams were bunched together at the top, and those teams all had seasons that rank among the best in league history. For some context, all four teams averaged at least 2.12 points earned per game, which has now been done five times across 86 total team-seasons in NWSL history, meaning that prior to this season it had been done once in 72 team seasons. Over on the Major League Soccer side, only four teams have ever earned at least 2.12 points per game in a season, and that is across 503 team-seasons. Teams are rarely this successful in soccer, let alone four teams being this successful in the same season, as happened in the NWSL this season.

To win the title, the Pride do not have to defeat all three teams. They only need to defeat two of them, starting with the Kansas City Current. They defeated the Current in Kansas City and drew with them in Orlando. And in an odd series of events, Orlando will need to defeat Kansas City in Orlando to get to go back to Kansas City to defeat another team besides Kansas City if Orlando wants to win the NWSL Championship.

No matter who wins the final, they will have had to survive the best final four in league history, and when the final whistle blows on Nov. 23, I hope it will be the Pride who emerge victorious and have their name engraved on the NWSL Championship Trophy.

It will look so much better in gold and silver than it would have in chalk.

Orlando Pride

Orlando Pride Offense through the Lens of Goal-Creating Actions

Can an analysis of the Pride’s offense in 2024 using goal-creating actions help project how they will perform in 2025?

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Image courtesy of Orlando Pride / Jeremy Reper

We are one week away from the season opener for Orlando City and three weeks away from the season opener for the Orlando Pride, wrapping up what has felt like a long off-season. Oddly enough, both off-seasons were the shortest in club history, but they have felt extra long, probably because of the elongated conversations around several players and whether these players would stay in Orlando, leave Orlando, or come to Orlando.

At this point, the rosters are probably pretty close to being locked in to what they will be when the seasons open, but there still may be some final changes, and if there are, hopefully they will be positive ones for the teams in purple.

Several weeks ago, I wrote about how the Pride were bringing back all of their goals and nearly all of their minutes played from 2024, and while that has changed now with Adriana’s departure to Al Qadsiah FC in Saudi Arabia, the Pride are still bringing back most of their goals and minutes and will likely be among the favorites, if not the favorite, when sportsbooks start posting their NWSL futures odds. As of this moment, I cannot find anyone who has odds posted, and very few sites have released their season previews and power rankings, but I have a hunch that the defending champions, bringing back nearly every key contributor, will be near the top of those lists. And they should be because, and let’s revel in this once again, they are the defending champions!

The Pride are bringing back two players who combined for 28 goals in NWSL play last season. If we include the playoffs, then Barbra Banda scored 17 goals and Marta added 11, and they ranked second and fourth, respectively, for most goals scored. What interested me, however, was that they only combined together to create four of those goals as a partnership.

Using Opta’s tracking and fbref.com’s database of goals, I was able to create a ranking of the most prolific partnerships during the 2024 NWSL season. For every goal scored, Opta tracks what they call goal-creating actions, which are the two plays immediately preceding a goal that led to a player scoring a goal. For example, let’s flash back to the playoff semifinal when Banda gave the Pride a 3-1 lead against the Current by smashing a ball into the net harder than a home run off the bat of Elly De La Cruz (my son’s favorite baseball player). In related news, I am also excited for baseball season.

In the video below, Banda is the goal scorer, and the prior two plays are a completed pass by Haley McCutcheon to Kylie Strom and then the assist on a completed pass from Strom to Banda. Opta tracks those as the two goal-creating actions for Banda’s goals, with Strom’s pass being the final action preceding the goal.

Staying in that same game, I am sure you remember Marta’s wondergoal (wondergoal is still underselling how great of a goal this was — this was an all-time great run down the field) that made the score 3-1. On that play, Banda received the assist, as she passed the ball to Marta, but the two goal-creating actions were actually both by Marta as she beat multiple defenders and the goalkeeper off the dribble to get herself into shooting position. Opta’s tracking shows this goal as scored by Marta, from two consecutive goal-creating actions of Marta take-ons. Yes Banda passed the ball to Marta, but this goal was created by Marta’s magic, and the GOAT taking on and beating multiple defenders.

Opta tracks the following seven different types of goal-creating actions:

  • Fouled
  • Interception (stealing a pass)
  • Pass (live-ball)
  • Pass (dead-ball)
  • Shot
  • Tackle (stealing the ball directly from the other team’s player)
  • Take-On (beating a defender off the dribble)

During the 2024 NWSL season there were 502 total goals scored, including the playoffs and including own goals. Opta’s tracking does not have an assist for every goal, nor does it have a goal-creating action for every goal, and that makes sense for how soccer is played. Sometimes goals happen unassisted, as a player, usually a striker, makes a tackle or interception themselves and then is in on goal and scores unassisted, or a player wins a loose ball in the box and slots it home, or a player finishes a rebound and the official scorer does not give the asisst to the player who took the original shot.

Opta’s tracking shows 481 non-own goals in 2024, with 312 of those goals (approximately 65%) having an assist. Of those 481 non-own goals, 447 (approximately 93%) had a primary goal-creating action, and this also makes sense, as it is much more likely, based on the list of goal-creating actions, that there was one of those than there was a true assist. I am much more interested in the goal-creating actions than I am the assists, as I believe they are better descriptors of how goals happened.

Looking at the Pride, which I know is really why you are here, the following table lists the player combinations that led to more than two goals during 2024:

Player CombinationGoals
Adriana and Barbra Banda5
Barbra Banda and Marta4
Ally Watt and Barbra Banda4
Adriana and Marta3
Barbra Banda and Julie Doyle3

For these counts it does not matter who created the goal and who scored it, these were the two Pride players involved in the final product. It may be a bit of a surprise to see that the top combination was Adriana and Banda, but Adriana scored three goals in 2024 that came directly from a foul on Banda (5/11 vs. Bay FC), a rebound from a Banda shot (6/30 vs. Angel City), and a foul on Banda (10/20 vs. Gotham). Banda scored two goals that resulted from an Adriana live-ball pass (5/19 vs. Seattle) and a rebound from an Adriana shot (7/6 vs. Kansas City). Adriana and Banda’s five goal combinations tied them for fourth in all of NWSL in 2024, with the combination of Esther González and Yazmeen Ryan of Gotham FC leading the league with seven.

It is a fair criticism of this statistic to say something along the lines of, “Well, Adriana did not intend to miss her shot and for Banda to score the rebound, so who really cares if it was an Adriana shot or someone else’s shot that Banda rebounded?”. Conversely, Adriana had to put a shot on target and have struck it well enough that it could not be saved and held, and Banda had to beat other players to the ball to score it, and both players had to have earned the right to be on the field at the same time.

I do not think goal-creating actions are the be-all, end-all, but I do think they tell more of a story than just assists. As another example, the action that immediately preceded five of Banda’s 17 goals was her winning a take-on against her defender. That total led the league in 2024, and she and Portland’s Sophia Smith were the only two players with more than three take-ons that led directly to goals in 2024. Two of those five goals for Banda had teammates credited with assists, but just as with the Marta goal against Kansas City when Banda was credited with the assist, the goals really came more from the effort by Banda as the goal scorer rather than from the pass that gave her the ball initially.

On a different note, those top combinations I showed tally up to 19 of the 54 goals scored by the Pride in 2024. The Pride benefitted from three own goals, meaning they scored 51 goals themselves, so those top combinations did not even account for half (37%) of the team’s goals last season. That is the sign of a team that is diverse in its attack, and even though Adriana is gone, they bring back everyone else who was involved in all of their goals, plus they will have Grace Chanda, Simone Charley, and Prisca Chilufya as additional offensive options in 2025. Losing Adriana will hurt, but I think the Pride will have her departure covered.

Goals are exciting, and of course are how teams win games, so as watchers and analyzers of soccer, we spend a lot of time thinking about how they happened. I like goal-creating actions as a statistic but I know on many goals there are different plays that happened in succession that led to the goal, and the goal-creating action stat only shows the final two plays. Those final two plays are critical though, so I think it is a good statistic to analyze, just in conjunction with others as well.

It is no accident that Banda was all over that list of top Pride combinations, she led the league in goal-creating actions and goal-creating actions plus goals, and with her available for the full season in 2025 I expect that she is going to be right near the top again this season, if not the league leader for the second consecutive season.

I cannot wait to watch the Pride’s offense this year. I think they are going to be creating goals and goal-creating actions at an even higher rate than last season.

Vamos Orlando!

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Orlando Pride

Orlando Pride Acquires Spanish International Oihane Hernandez

The Pride have acquired Spanish right back Oihane Hernandez from Real Madrid Femenil, signing her to a two-year deal.

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Dan MacDonald, The Mane Land

The Orlando Pride defensive signings continue, but this time it’s a new player instead of a new contract. The club announced the signing of Spanish international defender Oihane Hernández this afternoon to a two-year contract through the 2026 season with a mutual option for 2027.

“Oihane is a technically gifted defender who excels in both defensive organization and distribution from the back,” Pride Vice President of Soccer Operations and Sporting Director Haley Carter said in a club press release. “She brings world-class experience and a championship mindset from her time with Spain’s national team. Oihane’s ability to perform in high-pressure situations and her tactical understanding and ability to read the game will be invaluable assets as we continue building a championship-caliber roster. We’re delighted to bring her to the City Beautiful.”

The 24-year-old has been a regular for the Spanish Women’s National Team and was a member of the 2023 FIFA Women’s World Cup champions.

“I’m excited to join the Orlando Pride and begin this new chapter in my career,” Hernández said in the club’s release. “The club’s vision and ambition really influenced me to make the move to Orlando. “I am impressed by the professional environment and the enthusiasm of the staff, teammates, and passionate fanbase. I am ready to give everything for the badge and build on the team’s success.”

Hernández joins the Pride from Real Madrid Femenino for an undisclosed fee. The right back spent the last two seasons at Real Madrid, making 31 appearances and recorded a pair of assists. Prior to moving to the Spanish capital, she played for Athletic Club Femenino in Bilbao, representing the club from 2019 to 2023. She made 109 appearances for the club, scoring three times.

Internationally, Hernandez came up through the youth ranks with Spain, playing in the 2016 FIFA U-17 Women’s World Cup, the 2017 UEFA Women’s Under-17 Championship, and the 2018 UEFA Women’s Under-19 Championship. That led to her making her senior team debut on Sept. 2, 2022 in a World Cup qualifier against Hungary.

During the 2023 World Cup run, Hernandez played in six games for the eventual champions. She started in the round of 16 and quarterfinals before coming off the bench in the World Cup Final against England.

More recently, Hernandez played for Spain in four games of the 2024 Summer Olympics. She won a bronze medal in that tournament.

What It Means For Orlando

Hernandez comes in to be the starting right back for the Pride. It’s interesting that the signing comes on the same day that the club awarded Cori Dyke a new contract. During her 2024 rookie season, Dyke became the Pride’s starting right back, taking over when Brianna Martinez was injured and playing well in the stretch run and postseason.

This move creates more depth at a position that was already well stocked. Prior to this move, the players that would likely play right back other than Dyke were Martinez, Haley McCutcheon, and Emily Sams. However, this move allows McCutcheon to remain in the defensive midfield and Sams to remain at center back, where she won the NWSL Defender of the Year last season.

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Orlando Pride Extend Contract of Defender Cori Dyke through 2027

The Pride extend a second defender through 2027 in as many days with a new deal for Cori Dyke.

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Image courtesy of Orlando Pride / Jeremy Reper

Just a day after locking down defender Emily Sams through 2027, the Orlando Pride have done the same with defender Cori Dyke. The Pride announced this morning that Dyke’s contract has been extended through the 2027 season. This extension comes on the heels of an outstanding rookie season, in which she stepped into the starting right back role down the stretch, helping Orlando win the NWSL Shield and NWSL Championship in 2024.

“Cori has consistently demonstrated her value both on and off the field since joining the Pride, and we’re thrilled to secure her future with the club,” Orlando Pride Vice President and Sporting Director Haley Carter said in a club press release. “Her tactical intelligence, versatility, and leadership qualities make her an integral part of what we’re building here in Orlando. Beyond her technical abilities, Cori embodies the culture and commitment to excellence that we strive for. This extension is a reflection of the hard work and dedication she brings to this organization every day and we’re excited to see her continue to grow and contribute to our team’s success.”  

The Pride selected Dyke in the second round (No. 22 overall) in the 2024 NWSL Draft out of Penn State. She signed a one-year contract on March 11, 2024. However, she impressed enough to inked a new deal through 2025 with an option for 2026 on July 10, 2024. Dyke has impressed the club in her short time with Orlando, earning yet another new deal.

The 24-year-old native of San Jose, CA made 21 appearances (11 starts) in the Pride’s 26 NWSL regular-season games during her rookie campaign, logging 1,095 minutes. She didn’t score a goal, but she notched one assist. Dyke attempted one (off-target) shot and completed 425 of her 542 pass attempts (78%) in her first professional season. Defensively, she finished with 20 tackles, 11 interceptions, and 23 headed duels. In the Pride’s playoff run, Dyke started all three games, playing 254 minutes, helping Orlando lift its second trophy of the season.

Dyke also appeared in two of the Pride’s three matches in the NWSL x Liga MX Femenil Summer Cup last year, starting both and recording 180 minutes.

The Pride recorded a clean sheet in 12 of Dyke’s 26 appearances a year ago, including in the NWSL Championship match against Washington.

Dyke played in 108 games (all starts) for the Penn State Nittany Lions in her college career, recording 9,069 minutes, nine goals, and nine assists. She played as a central midfielder for the first four years in college, but moved to center back for her final season. Despite moving to the back line, the 2023 season was her most productive offensively, as she recorded five goals and six assists.

Dyke received several accolades during her five collegiate seasons. As a freshman, she was named to the Big Ten All-Freshman Team and Freshman Best XI First Team by Top Drawer Soccer. During her final season in the midfield, she was named to the 2022 Big Ten Women’s All-Tournament Team. Dyke moved to center back for her senior season and was named Big Ten Defender of the Year. She was also named All-Big Ten First Team and the United Soccer Coaches named her a second-team All-American and first-team All-North Region.

On the international stage, Dyke has represented the U.S. Women’s National Team from the U-14 through U-23 levels, helping the U-19 team win a CFA Tournament in 2017. 

What It Means for Orlando

Carter locking up players she believes will be part of the team’s core moving forward is nothing new. Dyke was thrown into a difficult position as a rookie and helped keep some of the league’s best attacking players quiet in the second half of the 2024 season and throughout the playoffs. She provides plenty of versatility with major college experience in central midfield and at center back in addition to having shown her ability to play fullback at the professional level last season.

Any time you can extend the contract of a young, talented player, it can only be seen as a positive. Dyke’s role in 2025 remains to be seen, as the team is getting players healthy again and defender Carson Pickett is going through a full training camp under Seb Hines. The back line would be just fine if it remained as it was at the end of 2024, but there is some belief that it can be even better in 2025. Where Dyke fits in will be revealed when the season starts, but she is an excellent option whether starting or providing depth and pushing her teammates to be better.

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