Orlando City
How Orlando City’s Offense Stacks Up Against What Atlanta Does Defensively
How Orlando City has performed against teams playing with three or four defenders, and how that may influence the playoff game against Atlanta United.
The most famous quote about real estate is that “there are three things that matter in property: location, location, location.” Soccer coaches also like to think in threes, especially when it comes to points, but for a soccer coach, the three things that matter might be the rhyming triplet “formation, formation, formation,” as that is where they will have the biggest influence on every game that their team plays.
Throughout his tenure as head coach, Óscar Pareja has preferred to use a 4-2-3-1 as his formation (fbref.com’s lineup data shows that the Lions primarily played a 4-2-3-1 in 65% of their MLS matches this season, and 79% of their MLS matches during the last three seasons). The Lions have lined up in a 4-2-3-1 during each of their last 14 games, and my confidence level is strong to quite strong (can you believe Meet the Parents came out 24 years ago?) that they will do so once again on Sunday when they host Atlanta United.
Atlanta United also prefers to deploy a 4-2-3-1, but was less consistent than Orlando City this season during MLS play, as evidenced by the chart below that shows how Atlanta lined up this season:
I am relying on the coders at Opta for their evaluation of the formation, as I do not watch a lot of Atlanta United matches (sounds terrible), but though Atlanta primarily played with four defenders in more than two-thirds of its matches, during the last two matches it played a 3-5-2, the only two matches all season in which interim coach Rob Valentino rolled out that formation. I suspect that the formation change was related partially to playing Inter Miami and trying to defend the Herons’ dynamic offense and partially due to an injury suffered by defender Brooks Lennon in the first game of that series. So, while Atlanta primarily played four in the back for most of the season, there is a good chance it will roll with what worked against Florida’s second-best MLS team when it plays Florida’s best MLS team this weekend.
Now, if you want to read more about Atlanta, then you can read our match preview, which will drop Sunday morning, but I want to look at how Orlando did against teams that play similar styles. Looking only at MLS games, the table below shows how Orlando City performed against different back line structures this season (the left side is how the Lions’ opponents lined up, the right side is how Orlando City performed against opponents in those formations):
Orlando City earned slightly more points per game — the stat that matters most — against teams that played four in the back, but the Lions had a better average goal differential when teams played three in the back. Atlanta will likely deploy one of those two formations. In both games against Orlando City this season, Sunday’s visitors went with a 4-2-3-1, but as mentioned earlier, they used three in the back in each of their last two matches, so it really could be either.
Soccer is not like baseball, where players primarily stay in the same spot throughout the game, so some of these stats have to be taken with a grain of salt, as players are not always rigidly in the same position throughout a match. A team may also primarily play with four in the back but switch to three when chasing a game, or five when trying to protect against a late goal.
That said, using the data around Orlando City’s opponents’ general formations, here are the attacking groups who played the most frequently against four defenders during the 24 MLS games where Opta coded the opponents as using a defensive group of four:
It is a little ominous that the main starting group, shown in row one, has played 666 MLS minutes against back lines of four this season, but do I like that green goal differential of +8 in those minutes, which is a strong +1.08 per 90 minutes. I like that goal differential more than I like all the things that Cardi B, Bad Bunny, and J Balvin like on their song that is creatively named “I Like It.” Coincidentally, when people ask me what I think about that song, I say, “I like it.” I am very creative.
If we look at the lineups that Orlando City has used against back lines of three defenders then there are some pretty major differences in personnel groupings, but it must be noted that more than half of the games against teams playing three in the back came early in the season, when Ramiro Enrique was unavailable to play. Enrique, my presumed starter at striker, has played fewer than three games’ worth of minutes (265 total) against back lines of three this season, and only 28 minutes with the main starting group, which ranks 13th among all the attacking lineups for minutes played against three defenders. That group scored one goal in their 28 minutes together though, for a robust 3.21 goals-scored-per-90-minutes average.
While the team as a whole has been successful against three-man back lines, I do not expect any of the lineups shown in the table below to play more than a few minutes together this weekend, though the first row and the last row are strong groups and had a lot of success.
I am sure that all week long the Orlando City coaching staff has been going back and forth on whether it is more likely that Atlanta reverts to its most commonly used four in the back, or if the Five Stripes try for three wins in a row with three in the back. I would prefer that Atlanta plays with zero defenders and goalkeeper Brad Guzan wears a blindfold, but I think that is unlikely to be the case.
Even though Atlanta defeated Orlando City both times while in a 4-2-3-1, based on available personnel and recent results, I believe that the team will come out in a 3-5-2 in Inter&Co Stadium in the conference semifinal. Good things come in threes, and Orlando City’s best offensive production this season has been against three defenders, so I am going to be hoping that this continues, and in the third game against Atlanta the Lions grab the three points. Three’s company!
Well, it is a playoff game, so there are no actual points at stake, but you know what I meant.
Vamos Orlando!
Opinion
Orlando City’s Lack of Off-Season Signings Starting to Become a Concern
The Lions’ roster hasn’t gotten any bigger in the last few weeks, so it’s understandable if fans are getting a bit antsy.
Three weeks ago I wrote that there was no reason to panic about Orlando City’s lack of off-season signings. It was early in January, and the club typically does a lot of its business throughout the first month of the year. Since then, the club signed Nicolas Rodriguez, but the Lions also traded Mason Stajduhar, and forward Jack Lynn retired. That is more subtraction than addition for a team looking to make it to the next level. Is it now time to panic?
The departure of Stajduhar hits Orlando City supporters in the feels given how long he was with the club, but one may assume the coaches have seen enough from Javier Otero to be confident in his ability to back up Pedro Gallese. The club still needs to bring in another keeper [Editor’s note: this story was written prior to the club signing Carlos Mercado this morning], but Stajduhar’s departure isn’t as big of a problem as it might first seem.
We don’t know how long Duncan McGuire will be unavailable once the season starts. Even if he’s back sooner than expected, Orlando City will still be lacking at the striker position. Ramiro Enrique has proven he can be a starter, but with Jack Lynn’s departure, there isn’t anyone behind him. While Luis Muriel is technically a striker, he tends to play further back in a facilitator role rather than as an actual No. 9. We haven’t seen any transfer moves for a new striker.
The Lions got a big influx of cash, thanks to the Facundo Torres deal. Replacing the goal production of Orlando City’s all-time leading goal scorer is a priority. So far, the club has brought in Rodriguez as an MLS U22 Initiative player. Despite the similarities between the two, Rodriguez is not a replacement for Torres. It is unrealistic to expect the young man to score double-digit goals his first year in MLS.
I’m not even worried about the attacking midfield. As I mentioned above, Muriel is best as a facilitator, Martin Ojeda is now wearing the No. 10 jersey, and Ivan Angulo can play on either side. It’s Torres’ goal contributions I’m worried about missing. Orlando City needs to replace that production sooner rather than later or another slow start seems certain.
I’m not going to address the Wilder Cartagena injury until we know more, but that is also potentially very bad news. That brings us to today. The team is already deep into its preseason trip to Mexico. This is the trip that in the past has been the time when the team truly bonds. Any players brought in at this point will obviously miss that valuable time.
Additionally, unless a signing is someone who has already played in MLS — which is incredibly rare for this front office — it is going to take them time to adapt to the league as well as the club and their new teammates. That brings us back to the real potential for another slow start to the season.
When you have roster turnover, the idea is to bring in players that are better than the players that departed. We know that the ownership is serious about winning. The 2022 Open Cup victory and the Orlando Pride’s two 2024 trophies are a testament to that. Now, it’s time to see that commitment with some substantial signings for City. In some ways, I feel the club has left it a little late, but I’ll take what I can get at this point.
I’m not saying it’s time to panic — though I won’t tell you not to do so — but I’m definitely getting a bit concerned. Let me know your thoughts in the comments below.
Lion Links
Lion Links: 1/30/25
Orlando City reveals kickoff events, women’s transfer market grows, Tanner Tessmann named U.S. Young Male Player of the Year, and more.
We’re all another day closer to the return of Orlando soccer and I can’t wait. I’ve been whittling the days away with reading, writing, and taking far too many photos of my cat. This month has flown by for me, and I’m not complaining too much about it. Let’s dive right into today’s links from around the soccer world.
Orlando City Announces Kickoff Events
In preparation for Orlando City’s 2025 season, the club announced various events before the season opener at home against the Philadelphia Union on Feb. 22. The launch for the team’s new primary kit will take place on Feb. 12 at the Canvas Event Venue, with fans in attendance able to get the jersey and meet players. Other events throughout February include a chalk talk, musical bingo night, and plenty of ways to get merch ahead of the season. However, the Purple Pride 5K is not listed, which is a bit disappointing considering it would have been the 10th annual edition of the event.
Analyzing the Women’s Soccer Transfer Market
American defender Naomi Girma’s move from San Diego Wave FC to Chelsea was the first to break the $1 million threshold for transfer fees in women’s soccer and The Athletic ($) dove into which players could warrant similar spending from clubs in the future. Orlando Pride forward Barbra Banda was one such player noted. Banda did fantastic in her first season in the league last year, starred in the past two Olympics, and is still only 24 years old. Only time will tell if Europe can entice her before her contract in Orlando is up, but clubs would likely pay seven figures for her services. Americans Sophia Smith and Trinity Rodman could also surpass that $1 million mark, along with NWSL MVP Temwa Chawinga and Paris FC’s Clara Mateo.
Tanner Tessmann Named U.S. Young Male Player of the Year
U.S. Soccer announced that midfielder Tanner Tessmann was voted 2024 U.S. Soccer Young Male Player of the Year after a solid year for both club and country. The 23-year-old captained the U.S. at the Olympics last summer and started for the senior team in both Concacaf Nations League quarterfinal games against Jamaica. A regular starter for Venezia last year, Tessmann scored in the promotion playoffs to help the team earn a spot in Serie A. He was then transferred to Olympique Lyon in August and has taken part in the Europa League. Tessmann received 70% of the vote, winning the award over Gianluca Busio and Niko Tsakiris.
Champions League First Stage Wraps Up
The UEFA Champions League’s league phase is finally over, with eight clubs already through to the round of 16 and 16 set to take part in a knockout round. Manchester City escaped elimination after a 3-1 win over Club Brugge that resulted in both teams advancing to the knockout stage. A hat trick from Ousmane Dembele lifted Paris Saint-Germain to a 4-1 win against Stuttgart and secure 15th in the standings. Aston Villa, Lille, and Bayer Leverkusen all won to clinch a spot in the round of 16, all three benefiting from Atalanta coming up short in a 2-2 draw with Barcelona. AC Milan lost 2-1 to Dinamo Zagreb in a match that included Christian Pulisic scoring and Yunus Musah being sent off. Liverpool’s perfect run came to an end following a 3-2 loss to PSV Eindhoven, but it still topped the standings.
While I found the new league phase to be a bit underwhelming, the knockout stage should provide some intriguing matchups. The draw will take place on Friday, but we already know that Manchester City will play either Real Madrid or Bayern Munich and Juventus will face either AC Milan or PSV Eindhoven.
Free Kicks
- MLS Season Pass will broadcast a featured game with enhanced production on Sunday nights. It’s a solid strategy and hopefully it can catch on and become something fans across the country look forward to each week.
- The Chicago Fire are set for a nice payday if Jhon Duran completes his move from Aston Villa to Al-Nassr.
- After missing out on Girma, Olympique Lyonnais is reportedly finalizing a deal for Houston Dash defender Tarciane for a transfer fee around $830,000.
- West Ham reportedly had a bid for American forward Ricardo Pepi rejected by PSV Eindhoven.
- Giovanni Reyna earned some style points for this assist in Borussia Dortmund’s 3-1 win against Shakhtar Donetsk in the Champions League.
- In wild news, it was revealed that North American Soccer League Chairman Rocco Commisso used a burner account on Twitter to attack MLS Commissioner Don Garber and USSF President Sunil Gulati.
- Federico Higuain, who spent the past two seasons coaching Inter Miami II, was named head coach of Columbus Crew 2.
- Police arrested 59 French fans in Germany ahead of PSG’s game against Stuttgart. Bans were also ordered to 47 Stuttgart fans as well.
That’s all I have for you today. I hope you all have a wonderful Thursday and rest of your week!
Lion Links
Lion Links: 1/29/25
Orlando City’s cup competitions, Orlando Pride’s new home kit leak, NWSL’s top 2025 matches, and more.
Welcome to Wednesday, Mane Landers. Orlando City’s preseason continues in Mexico, where the Lions played a closed door match against Canadian Premier League club Forge FC in Cancun on Tuesday. The club didn’t release any details on the match (more on that below), but the feature image is from the scrimmage. For now, let’s get to today’s links!
Orlando City Cup Competitions
Orlando City will compete in two of the four North American cup competitions in 2025. After a year away, the Lions return to the Lamar Hunt U.S. Open Cup along with 15 other MLS clubs and 10 MLS Next Pro participants. Orlando City will also take part in the Leagues Cup with 17 other MLS clubs and 18 Liga MX clubs. The Lions did not qualify for the Concacaf Champions Cup, nor will they compete in the Canadian Championship for obvious geographical reasons.
Lions Remain Scoreless in Preseason
While Orlando City didn’t release any details from Tuesday’s scrimmage, the folks at TrueNorthFoot reported that the Lions and Forge FC played to a 0-0 draw in Cancun Tuesday. The photos released by the club mostly featured younger players, and it’s not surprising that the offense isn’t sharp at this stage, but at least the defense is doing well through two matches. The next scrimmage will take place Feb. 5 against Atlanta United.
Pride Home Kit Leak?
From now on, all Orlando Pride kits will have a star above the crest (or more, pending future results). Like many of you, I’ve eagerly awaited what the next home kit will look like. We now have a glimpse, if a leak from Footy Headlines is accurate.
I really hope that picture doesn’t convey how purple the kit is supposed to be. I’m also not a big fan of the crest in the center thing, but they don’t let me make those decisions. If the new kit doesn’t float your boat, you can pick up some previous Pride kits from the club’s official shop at a nice discount.
The Orlando Pride are Must-Watch TV
As the defending NWSL Shield and NWSL Cup winners, it’s not a surprise that the Orlando Pride earned three spots on All for XI’s Top 10 Must-Watch NWSL Games in 2025 list, including the top spot. The matches against NJ/NY Gotham FC, the Kansas City Current, and of course, a rematch against the Washington Spirit will certainly draw big viewership numbers.
NWSL Expansion Update
An official announcement adding Denver to the cities with an NWSL club is expected in the near future. Prior to that commissioner Jessica Berman hinted that there are plans to further expand the league. If Denver joins as planned, the team’s ownership will pay a record $110 million franchise fee. You can expect those fees to continue to grow as the league does the same.
Free Kicks
- Remember Amro Tarek? He made 20 appearances for Orlando City back in 2018. If you don’t remember him, that’s all right since Austin FC supporters will almost certainly remember him for this fun fact.
- Crystal Dunn and Gotham FC have mutually parted ways. As of now, Dunn has not shared where her journey will take her next.
- USMNT midfielder Tyler Adams is now a part of the Westchester FC ownership group. Adams grew up in nearby Dutchess County.
- Some pretty big names have left the NWSL for other shores. While the story includes the Pride’s Mariana Larroquette, she’s not quite the biggest name on the list, and she’s also only on loan until July 1.
- The U.S. Open Cup has tweaked the competition rules so that teams must use primary venues when possible. If they cannot, the team will be on the hook for any differences in the cost to broadcast the match.
That will do it for today. Have a great rest of the week. Vamos Orlando!
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