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How Orlando City’s Offense Stacks Up Against What Atlanta Does Defensively

How Orlando City has performed against teams playing with three or four defenders, and how that may influence the playoff game against Atlanta United.

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

The most famous quote about real estate is that “there are three things that matter in property: location, location, location.” Soccer coaches also like to think in threes, especially when it comes to points, but for a soccer coach, the three things that matter might be the rhyming triplet “formation, formation, formation,” as that is where they will have the biggest influence on every game that their team plays.

Throughout his tenure as head coach, Óscar Pareja has preferred to use a 4-2-3-1 as his formation (fbref.com’s lineup data shows that the Lions primarily played a 4-2-3-1 in 65% of their MLS matches this season, and 79% of their MLS matches during the last three seasons). The Lions have lined up in a 4-2-3-1 during each of their last 14 games, and my confidence level is strong to quite strong (can you believe Meet the Parents came out 24 years ago?) that they will do so once again on Sunday when they host Atlanta United.

Atlanta United also prefers to deploy a 4-2-3-1, but was less consistent than Orlando City this season during MLS play, as evidenced by the chart below that shows how Atlanta lined up this season:

The purpose of this image is a table to show how Atlanta United lined up in 2024 (mostly in a 4-2-3-1 but also in one of six other formations).

I am relying on the coders at Opta for their evaluation of the formation, as I do not watch a lot of Atlanta United matches (sounds terrible), but though Atlanta primarily played with four defenders in more than two-thirds of its matches, during the last two matches it played a 3-5-2, the only two matches all season in which interim coach Rob Valentino rolled out that formation. I suspect that the formation change was related partially to playing Inter Miami and trying to defend the Herons’ dynamic offense and partially due to an injury suffered by defender Brooks Lennon in the first game of that series. So, while Atlanta primarily played four in the back for most of the season, there is a good chance it will roll with what worked against Florida’s second-best MLS team when it plays Florida’s best MLS team this weekend.

Now, if you want to read more about Atlanta, then you can read our match preview, which will drop Sunday morning, but I want to look at how Orlando did against teams that play similar styles. Looking only at MLS games, the table below shows how Orlando City performed against different back line structures this season (the left side is how the Lions’ opponents lined up, the right side is how Orlando City performed against opponents in those formations):

Table embedded as an image showing Orlando City doing best in goal differential in 12 games against three-man back lines, second best against four-man back lines, and having played once against a five-man back line (a 1-1 draw).

Orlando City earned slightly more points per game — the stat that matters most — against teams that played four in the back, but the Lions had a better average goal differential when teams played three in the back. Atlanta will likely deploy one of those two formations. In both games against Orlando City this season, Sunday’s visitors went with a 4-2-3-1, but as mentioned earlier, they used three in the back in each of their last two matches, so it really could be either.

Soccer is not like baseball, where players primarily stay in the same spot throughout the game, so some of these stats have to be taken with a grain of salt, as players are not always rigidly in the same position throughout a match. A team may also primarily play with four in the back but switch to three when chasing a game, or five when trying to protect against a late goal.

That said, using the data around Orlando City’s opponents’ general formations, here are the attacking groups who played the most frequently against four defenders during the 24 MLS games where Opta coded the opponents as using a defensive group of four:

Table embedded as an image showing the most frequently used lineups against teams who deploy four defenders. The most frequently used attacking group has a plus eight goal differential for the season.

It is a little ominous that the main starting group, shown in row one, has played 666 MLS minutes against back lines of four this season, but do I like that green goal differential of +8 in those minutes, which is a strong +1.08 per 90 minutes. I like that goal differential more than I like all the things that Cardi B, Bad Bunny, and J Balvin like on their song that is creatively named “I Like It.” Coincidentally, when people ask me what I think about that song, I say, “I like it.” I am very creative.

If we look at the lineups that Orlando City has used against back lines of three defenders then there are some pretty major differences in personnel groupings, but it must be noted that more than half of the games against teams playing three in the back came early in the season, when Ramiro Enrique was unavailable to play. Enrique, my presumed starter at striker, has played fewer than three games’ worth of minutes (265 total) against back lines of three this season, and only 28 minutes with the main starting group, which ranks 13th among all the attacking lineups for minutes played against three defenders. That group scored one goal in their 28 minutes together though, for a robust 3.21 goals-scored-per-90-minutes average.

While the team as a whole has been successful against three-man back lines, I do not expect any of the lineups shown in the table below to play more than a few minutes together this weekend, though the first row and the last row are strong groups and had a lot of success.

Table embedded as an image showing the most frequently used lineups against teams who deploy three defenders. The most frequently used attacking group has a plus three goal differential for the season.

I am sure that all week long the Orlando City coaching staff has been going back and forth on whether it is more likely that Atlanta reverts to its most commonly used four in the back, or if the Five Stripes try for three wins in a row with three in the back. I would prefer that Atlanta plays with zero defenders and goalkeeper Brad Guzan wears a blindfold, but I think that is unlikely to be the case.

Even though Atlanta defeated Orlando City both times while in a 4-2-3-1, based on available personnel and recent results, I believe that the team will come out in a 3-5-2 in Inter&Co Stadium in the conference semifinal. Good things come in threes, and Orlando City’s best offensive production this season has been against three defenders, so I am going to be hoping that this continues, and in the third game against Atlanta the Lions grab the three points. Three’s company!

Well, it is a playoff game, so there are no actual points at stake, but you know what I meant.

Vamos Orlando!

Orlando City

Flashback Friday: June 10, 2023 vs. Colorado Rapids

Let’s take a trip down memory lane to a booking-laden match at home that took place a little less than three years ago.

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Dan MacDonald, The Mane Land

The World Cup is now officially underway, and while that means Orlando City is on break, we can’t have you forgetting about the Lions while all the international action is taking place. That means its time for another edition of Flashback Friday, where we hop in the trusty time machine and reminisce on OCSC matches of yesteryear.

Last week we relived a rousing road win over the New York Red Bulls from June, 3 2023, and this week, we actually pick up right where we left off, on June 10, 2023 as the Lions returned home to take on the Colorado Rapids.

Coming off a 3-0 win over the Red Bulls in the previous match, Oscar Pareja decided to not mess with a good thing, and kept Orlando City’s same starting XI from that victory. Pedro Gallese was in net behind a back line of Rafael Santos, Robin Jansson, Antonio Carlos, and Kyle Smith. Wilder Cartagena and Cesar Araujo played the double pivot; Ivan Angulo, Mauricio Pereyra, and Facundo Torres were the attacking midfielders, and Ercan Kara was deployed as the striker.

In typical June fashion for the City Beautiful, kickoff was delayed by just under an hour as the stadium was pounded by storms, and the delay did not look to have done any favors for Orlando’s sharpness. That said, OCSC did win a corner kick less than a minute into the game, and Torres had a tame shot saved in the eighth minute, but the Lions weren’t consistently sharp with their passing in the early moments of the contest.

The teams traded chances just before the 15-minute mark, with Kara sending a header too high before Cole Bassett sent a shot straight to Gallese. Carlos then picked up a yellow card in the 24th minute, which evened things out between the two teams after Lalas Abubakar was cautioned for the Rapids after just six minutes. Those two bookings proved to be a harbinger of things to come, because Colorado went down to 10 men in the 39th minute after midfielder Braian Galvan caught Angulo with a high boot while his studs were showing.

Pereyra had Orlando’s best chance of the opening 45 minutes in stoppage time but could only send his effort right at goalkeeper Marko Ilic, and that was the last significant action of the half. The Lions ended the half with an edge in possession (59.7%-40.3%), shots (7-2), shots on target (2-1), and passing accuracy (85.3%-79.4%), while both teams won two corners.

Pareja made two moves at halftime, bringing on Rodrigo Schlegel for the once-booked Carlos, and Martin Ojeda for Cartagena in an effort to go more offensive against a shorthanded Rapids side. The Lions certainly looked brighter going forward as the second half got underway and had a few dangerous moments before finally breaking the deadlock in the 55th minute.

Pereyra played a ball across the top of the box for Torres, who took a couple of touches before sending a ball to the net that took a wicked deflection off Andreas Maxsø that carried it past Ilic.

It wasn’t the prettiest goal the Lions have ever scored, but for a team that was guilty at times of passing up good shots in favor of the perfect look at goal, it was proof that sometimes you just need to take shots in dangerous areas.

Fortunately, Orlando seemed to take that lesson to heart. Kara went close in the 65th minute despite shooting through traffic, Angulo had a shot deflected by Abubakar three minutes later, and Torres had another deflected effort go just wide of the post four minutes after that.

The game changed again in the 75th minute, when the Rapids had another player sent off. Abubakar lasted for 69 minutes on a yellow card but got burned by Angulo in midfield and hauled him down in order to prevent the Lions from potentially working a transition opportunity. He had some teammates behind him, but the referee showed him a second yellow card. Pareja smelled blood in the water and just three minutes later he brought on Ramiro Enrique for Smith, who had been given a yellow card in the 52nd minute.

Ilic made a great save on Pereyra in the 81st minute to keep the score at 1-0 and keep the Rapids in the game, but Orlando got its second goal just two minutes later. Torres had the ball on the right side of the box with a Colorado player backing off him, and that gave him ample time to get his head up and pick out a man. He played a ball to Enrique at the top of the box, who had plenty of time to take a couple of touches and send a low shot into the bottom corner past a diving Ilic for his first goal as an Orlando City player.

Somewhat surprisingly, the game started to get a little stretched after the Lions doubled their advantage. Colorado had a shot blocked in the 81st minute, Kara sent a shot very close to the post six minutes after that, and Gallese saved a Darren Yapi attempt in the 88th minute to keep his clean sheet alive. Aside from Pareja handing Alejandro Granados his MLS debut, that was the last significant action of the match, which finished 2-0 to the good guys.

Unsurprisingly, considering Colorado’s deficit in players, the Lions dominated all of the game’s most important statistics. OCSC finished with the advantage in possession (65%-35%), shots (15-4), shots on goal (6-2), corners (5-3), and passing accuracy (89.4%-81.5%).

The victory made it back-to-back wins for the first time in 2023, stretched Orlando’s unbeaten run to six, and gave El Pulpo his 100th clean sheet for the team in all competitions.

Marcus Mitchell had the helm for Player Grades in this one, and Torres got his nod for Man of the Match with a goal, an assist, and a grade of 7.5 out of 10. Several other Lions graded out at 7 out of 10, with only one player grading below a 6.


While it was a weird win, it unfortunately was the final game of the unbeaten streak, as the Lions fell to a familiar defeat at Gillette Stadium the following week, although things got back on track soon afterward. I’ll see you back here in a week for another trip down memory lane. Vamos Orlando!

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Lion Links: 6/12/26

USMNT plays Paraguay tonight, red cards rain down in World Cup opener, Sporting Kansas City linked with Yann Gboho, and more.

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Image of Alex Freeman sliding in celebration of a goal.
Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

Happy Friday, Mane Landers! The World Cup is in full swing and the U.S. will play today, so it’s a pretty exciting Friday to say the least. I’m a bit of a bundle of nerves about how the team will do, but I’m still looking forward to catching the game. If you have any gameday rituals, be sure to share, so that we can conjure up enough luck and support for the team tonight. Let’s get to the links!

USMNT’s World Cup Campaign Begins Today

The United States Men’s National Team will take on Paraguay at 9 p.m. tonight in its first match of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. There’s plenty of pressure on the U.S. to perform well as one of the host nations, and this will also be Head Coach Mauricio Pochettino’s first time coaching at a World Cup. Pochettino stated that all 26 players are available for selection, including center back Chris Richards, although he may not necessarily start. Former Orlando City defender Alex Freeman, who is the youngest player on the U.S. roster, could make his World Cup debut tonight, so be sure to root for our hometown hero should he take the field. Hopefully, the Yanks can start this tournament off on the right foot with a big win in California.

World Cup Opener Features Three Red Cards

This year’s World Cup began in Mexico City, with Mexico beating South Africa 2-0 in a match that included three red cards. All three were straight red cards given in the second half in separate incidents, as Sphephelo Sithole and Themba Zwane were sent off for South Africa before Mexico’s Cesar Montes was shown red in stoppage time. There hasn’t been a World Cup match with that many red cards since the record of four was set in 2006 in a match between Portugal and the Netherlands. As for the game’s goals, Julian Quinones pounced on a mistake by South Africa to give Mexico an early lead and Raul Jimenez doubled that lead while South Africa was reduced to 10 men.

Sporting Kansas City Linked With Yann Gboho

While the World Cup roars on, the rumor mill is in full force as clubs make plans for summer reinforcements. Sporting Kansas City is reportedly pushing to sign Toulouse winger Yann Gboho, who recorded 10 goals and three assists across all competitions this past season. The surprising aspect of this pursuit would be that Toulouse values Gboho at an eye-watering $20 million transfer fee, which would be a club record by a country mile. Kansas City needs all the help it can get on offense, as it has scored just 14 goals in 14 games so far this season.

Jose Mourinho Officially Returns to Real Madrid

It’s been a bit of an open secret over the past few weeks that Jose Mourinho would become Real Madrid’s next manager and it’s now official, with the 63-year-old signing a three-year contract with the Spanish club. Mourinho helped Real Madrid win a La Liga title and the Copa del Rey over a decade ago before his departure in 2013 after three seasons with the club. Now, he joins a Real Madrid side that has finished second in the league standings and been eliminated in the quarterfinals of the UEFA Champions League the past two seasons. I, for one, can’t wait to see how one of the biggest personalities in soccer works alongside a locker room of star players that seemed in disarray this past season.

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That’s all I have for you this time around. I hope you all have a fantastic Friday and rest of your weekend!

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Lion Links: 6/11/26

Wilder Cartagena linked with move to Sporting Cristal, Orlando Pride hire Dr. Nicole Surdyka, Barbra Banda injury update, and more.

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Jermey Reper

The World Cup is finally here! Today starts what should be an exciting month of international soccer featuring more teams than ever before. While I wasn’t able to part with the arm and leg necessary to afford a ticket to one of the games, I’m still looking forward to watching along when I can with the rest of the world. Let’s get to the links!

Wilder Cartagena Linked With Move to Peruvian Club

You’ll need a translation tool to check out the full details unless you are fluent in Spanish, but Sporting Cristal of Peru’s top flight is reportedly interested in signing Orlando City midfielder Wilder Cartagena. The 31-year-old is currently under contract with Orlando through 2026, with the contact also including a club option for 2027. He was a crucial part to Orlando’s success in 2024, but he missed all of last year and has only started one game so far this season due to injuries. It’s not much more than a rumor as of now, but it’ll be something to keep an eye on during this break in the league schedule.

Barbra Banda Sustained a Hamstring Injury

Zambia Head Coach Nora Hauptle stated that Orlando Pride forward Barbra Banda is dealing with a hamstring strain. Banda didn’t play in either of Zambia’s matches during this international break, but Hauptle also noted that she should recover in the next week or two and will be fine for the Women’s Africa Cup of Nations at the end of July. Banda was injured late in the Pride’s 3-1 win against Bay FC on May 29 and it was unclear how severe the injury was. Hopefully she’ll be good to go before the Pride’s match against Angel City FC on July 3.

Dr. Nicole Surdyka Named Orlando Pride Director of Medical & Performance

The Orlando Pride have hired Dr. Nicole Surdyka as their new director of medical and performance. She’ll oversee the Pride’s medical operations, nutrition, and more while also working with Orlando Health. Dr. Surdyka has over a decade of experience that included leadership roles with OL Reign and the LA Galaxy and has studied extensively into developing frameworks for health and performance in women’s soccer.

“Nicole is one of the most respected practitioners in our field, and her expertise in women’s football, return‑to‑play, and high‑performance systems will elevate every aspect of our medical and performance environment,” said Caitlin Carducci, Orlando Pride VP of Soccer Operations & General Manager. “Her leadership, her commitment to evidence‑based practice and her passion for supporting athletes make her an exceptional addition to the Pride.”

Analyzing Paraguay Ahead of USMNT World Cup Match

The United States Men’s National Team will play its World Cup opener on Friday when it hosts Paraguay at SoFi Stadium. It will be the 10th match between the two nations, with the USMNT most recently winning 2-1 against Paraguay in November of last year. There’s a familiar face on Paraguay’s roster in Orlando City midfielder Braian Ojeda, with Miguel Almiron and Andres Cubas as other MLS midfielders called up. Paraguay’s defense is anchored by center back Gustavo Gomez, who you may remember as the player who put former Lion Alex Freeman in a headlock during that aforementioned November friendly. As for Paraguay’s attack, the Yanks will need to keep Julio Enciso and Antonio Sanabria from wreaking havoc. Paraguay is a physical team that’s also strong in the air, so we’ll see how the USMNT deals with that on Friday.

England Beats Costa Rica 3-0 at Inter&Co Stadium

Orlando City’s Inter&Co Stadium hosted a friendly between England and Costa Rica on Wednesday, with England winning 3-0. Declan Rice gave England an early lead, but Costa Rica kept the Three Lions off the scoresheet until the substitutes came on for England in the second half, with Anthony Gordon and Ollie Watkins both scoring. England got the full Orlando experience due to a heavy storm that delayed kickoff, but Inter&Co Stadium earned praise for its drainage system that had the pitch ready to roll in no time. Enjoy this satisfying time-lapse video of the transformation provided by the stadium.

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That’s all I have for you this time around. I hope you all have a wonderful Thursday and rest of your week!

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