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How Orlando City’s Offense Stacks Up Against What Atlanta Does Defensively

How Orlando City has performed against teams playing with three or four defenders, and how that may influence the playoff game against Atlanta United.

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

The most famous quote about real estate is that “there are three things that matter in property: location, location, location.” Soccer coaches also like to think in threes, especially when it comes to points, but for a soccer coach, the three things that matter might be the rhyming triplet “formation, formation, formation,” as that is where they will have the biggest influence on every game that their team plays.

Throughout his tenure as head coach, Óscar Pareja has preferred to use a 4-2-3-1 as his formation (fbref.com’s lineup data shows that the Lions primarily played a 4-2-3-1 in 65% of their MLS matches this season, and 79% of their MLS matches during the last three seasons). The Lions have lined up in a 4-2-3-1 during each of their last 14 games, and my confidence level is strong to quite strong (can you believe Meet the Parents came out 24 years ago?) that they will do so once again on Sunday when they host Atlanta United.

Atlanta United also prefers to deploy a 4-2-3-1, but was less consistent than Orlando City this season during MLS play, as evidenced by the chart below that shows how Atlanta lined up this season:

The purpose of this image is a table to show how Atlanta United lined up in 2024 (mostly in a 4-2-3-1 but also in one of six other formations).

I am relying on the coders at Opta for their evaluation of the formation, as I do not watch a lot of Atlanta United matches (sounds terrible), but though Atlanta primarily played with four defenders in more than two-thirds of its matches, during the last two matches it played a 3-5-2, the only two matches all season in which interim coach Rob Valentino rolled out that formation. I suspect that the formation change was related partially to playing Inter Miami and trying to defend the Herons’ dynamic offense and partially due to an injury suffered by defender Brooks Lennon in the first game of that series. So, while Atlanta primarily played four in the back for most of the season, there is a good chance it will roll with what worked against Florida’s second-best MLS team when it plays Florida’s best MLS team this weekend.

Now, if you want to read more about Atlanta, then you can read our match preview, which will drop Sunday morning, but I want to look at how Orlando did against teams that play similar styles. Looking only at MLS games, the table below shows how Orlando City performed against different back line structures this season (the left side is how the Lions’ opponents lined up, the right side is how Orlando City performed against opponents in those formations):

Table embedded as an image showing Orlando City doing best in goal differential in 12 games against three-man back lines, second best against four-man back lines, and having played once against a five-man back line (a 1-1 draw).

Orlando City earned slightly more points per game — the stat that matters most — against teams that played four in the back, but the Lions had a better average goal differential when teams played three in the back. Atlanta will likely deploy one of those two formations. In both games against Orlando City this season, Sunday’s visitors went with a 4-2-3-1, but as mentioned earlier, they used three in the back in each of their last two matches, so it really could be either.

Soccer is not like baseball, where players primarily stay in the same spot throughout the game, so some of these stats have to be taken with a grain of salt, as players are not always rigidly in the same position throughout a match. A team may also primarily play with four in the back but switch to three when chasing a game, or five when trying to protect against a late goal.

That said, using the data around Orlando City’s opponents’ general formations, here are the attacking groups who played the most frequently against four defenders during the 24 MLS games where Opta coded the opponents as using a defensive group of four:

Table embedded as an image showing the most frequently used lineups against teams who deploy four defenders. The most frequently used attacking group has a plus eight goal differential for the season.

It is a little ominous that the main starting group, shown in row one, has played 666 MLS minutes against back lines of four this season, but do I like that green goal differential of +8 in those minutes, which is a strong +1.08 per 90 minutes. I like that goal differential more than I like all the things that Cardi B, Bad Bunny, and J Balvin like on their song that is creatively named “I Like It.” Coincidentally, when people ask me what I think about that song, I say, “I like it.” I am very creative.

If we look at the lineups that Orlando City has used against back lines of three defenders then there are some pretty major differences in personnel groupings, but it must be noted that more than half of the games against teams playing three in the back came early in the season, when Ramiro Enrique was unavailable to play. Enrique, my presumed starter at striker, has played fewer than three games’ worth of minutes (265 total) against back lines of three this season, and only 28 minutes with the main starting group, which ranks 13th among all the attacking lineups for minutes played against three defenders. That group scored one goal in their 28 minutes together though, for a robust 3.21 goals-scored-per-90-minutes average.

While the team as a whole has been successful against three-man back lines, I do not expect any of the lineups shown in the table below to play more than a few minutes together this weekend, though the first row and the last row are strong groups and had a lot of success.

Table embedded as an image showing the most frequently used lineups against teams who deploy three defenders. The most frequently used attacking group has a plus three goal differential for the season.

I am sure that all week long the Orlando City coaching staff has been going back and forth on whether it is more likely that Atlanta reverts to its most commonly used four in the back, or if the Five Stripes try for three wins in a row with three in the back. I would prefer that Atlanta plays with zero defenders and goalkeeper Brad Guzan wears a blindfold, but I think that is unlikely to be the case.

Even though Atlanta defeated Orlando City both times while in a 4-2-3-1, based on available personnel and recent results, I believe that the team will come out in a 3-5-2 in Inter&Co Stadium in the conference semifinal. Good things come in threes, and Orlando City’s best offensive production this season has been against three defenders, so I am going to be hoping that this continues, and in the third game against Atlanta the Lions grab the three points. Three’s company!

Well, it is a playoff game, so there are no actual points at stake, but you know what I meant.

Vamos Orlando!

Lion Links

Lion Links: 7/2/25

Big names leave Toronto FC, hot conditions in Club World Cup match, FIFPRO makes ACL recommendations, and more.

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

Happy Wednesday, everyone. It already feels like it’s been a long week, as I just got home from being out of town traveling up and down the East Coast for the last few days. The soccer world hasn’t stopped in my absence though, and as usual we have a lot to cover today. Let’s wish a happy birthday to OCB defender Tahir Reid-Brown, and jump into today’s links!

Italians Leave Toronto FC

It’s the end of an era at Toronto FC, as the club has parted ways with both Federico Bernardeschi, and Lorenzo Insigne. The Reds used both of their two buyouts of guaranteed contracts this season in order to get the transactions done, so the club was pretty keen to get them out the door. It’s hard to blame the Reds, as Insigne was the second-highest paid player in the league while Bernardeschi was the fifth highest. They didn’t have much to show for it though, as Bernardeschi had 26 goals and 22 assists in 99 games across all competitions, while Insigne had 19 goals and 17 assists in 76 matches. TFC never made the playoffs while the duo was on the team, and the decision to turn the page is an understandable one.

Difficult Conditions in Juventus vs. Real Madrid

The Club World Cup Round of 16 concluded on Tuesday, with Real Madrid knocking off Juventus 1-0 in afternoon match. Kylian Mbappe made his tournament debut for Madrid as a substitute, but it was Gonzalo Garcia’s 54th-minute goal that made the difference in the game. Juve boss Igor Tudor highlighted the difficult conditions in Miami, saying in his postgame press conference that 10 different players asked to come off the field during the game. Tudor didn’t outright blame the loss on the high heat and humidity during the 3 p.m. kickoff at Hard Rock Stadium, but noted that they were among several factors that made the game a very difficult one for his side.

FIFPRO Makes Recommendations to Curb ACL Tears

Amid a rash of ACL injuries to women’s soccer players, FIFPRO has made some recommendations to cut down on the rate at which they occur. Rather than focusing on things that can’t be controlled, the federation has suggested modifying the calendar, number of games, and the playing surfaces. FIFPRO member Alex Culvin is calling for minimum standards in the women’s game relating to pitch conditions and access to physiotherapists. More research around risk factors is also necessary, as is implementing preventative exercises at the youth levels of the game.

Transfer Rumor Roundup

Summer transfer business is in full swing, so let’s catch up on some of the hot rumors currently flying around. First up, Arsenal is said to be in the final stages of signing Viktor Gyokeres to a five-year deal. Staying in the Premier League, Manchester United is reportedly interested in signing midfielder Fabian Ruiz from Paris Saint-Germain. Juventus reportedly is close to signing Jonathan David after his contract with Lille expired. Finally, Bayern Munich is reportedly preparing a formal offer for Liverpool for Colombian winger Luis Diaz.

Free Kicks

Apparently a non -#usmnt drone has crashed the training session. US Soccer staff aiming to identify it.

Jeff Carlisle (@jeffreycarlisle.bsky.social) 2025-07-01T17:25:12.954Z

That’s all I have for you this morning. Vamos Orlando!

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Lion Links

Lion Links: 7/1/25

Pride signings, OCB draws, both U.S. national teams in action Wednesday, and more.

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Image courtesy of Orlando Pride / Jeremy Reper

Welcome to July, Mane Landers. If you’re like me, you balanced the excitement and dread of the USMNT advancing on penalty kicks the other night. It was one thing watching Guatemala take out Canada but a whole other level of heart palpitating stress while watching the U.S. avoid a similar fate. There’s no time to relax with plenty of soccer to watch as we head towards Independence Day. Before we get to the links, please join us in wishing Orlando Pride/USWNT defender Emily Sams and OCB defender Clovis Archange each a happy birthday.

Orlando Pride Signings

The Orlando Pride announced a pair of transactions Monday. Midfielder Viviana Villacorta and the club have agreed to exercise the midfielder’s mutual option for the 2026 season. Villacorta was the No. 9 overall pick in the 2021 NWSL Draft. The Pride also signed midfielder Ally Lemos to a new contract through the 2027 season with a mutual option for 2028. The Pride selected Lemos with the No. 9 overall pick of the 2024 NWSL Draft. Orlando continues to lock down current players ahead of time. Now, we wait to see if any new players will be added.

OCB Earns a Point on the Road

Orlando City B played Philadelphia Union II to a 1-1 draw in a Monday afternoon match. Unfortunately, the Young Lions lost the end-of-regulation shootout 4-2 and did not get the additional point. Gustavo Caraballo assisted Jackson Platts on the early goal for OCB. Philadelphia equalized early in the second half. Carlos Mercado was the difference maker in the match, recording a career-high 12 saves.

USMNT’s Gold Cup Run Continues vs. Guatemala

The USMNT will face Guatemala Wednesday night in a 2025 Gold Cup semifinal match. The U.S. advanced past Costa Rica on penalties thanks to a stellar performance from goalkeeper Matt Freese. Guatemala stunned Canada with a second-half equalizer and advanced on penalty kicks. Guatemala has been the overachieving underdog of the competition so far. This will be the USMNT’s 17th Gold Cup semifinal appearance.

USWNT Hosts Canada

The USWNT will host Canada in a third friendly of this international window Wednesday at Washington, D.C.’s Audi Field. The U.S. is coming off two 4-0 victories over the Republic of Ireland. Canada should prove a tougher opponent for Emma Hayes’ squad. There is a possibility that the match will feature two Orlando Pride players — Emily Sams for the U.S. and Zara Chavoshi for Canada. Kerry Abello has returned to her club team after picking up a knock.

Free Kicks

Sources: Bayer Leverkusen are finalizing a deal to sign USMNT attacker Malik Tillman from PSV.Deal in region of $40m.

Tom Bogert (@tombogert.bsky.social) 2025-06-30T20:36:24.359Z
  • Former Orlando Pride midfielder Erika Tymrak has retired from professional soccer.

That will do it for today. Check back as we get you ready for Orlando City’s match against Charlotte FC this weekend. Vamos Orlando!

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Orlando City

Orlando City Striker Ramiro Enrique Hindered By Inconsistency

Ramiro Enrique’s inconsistent play raises the question if he can be the go-to striker Orlando City desperately needs.

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

Orlando City’s strike force has been inconsistent this season, to say the least. At times, the players up top have looked like they can score at will, but at other times, they struggle on chances they should finish. Nobody displays that inconsistency better than Ramiro Enrique.

Joining the Lions in 2023, Enrique has primarily served in a backup role for Ercan Kara, Duncan McGuire, and Luis Muriel. The young Argentine has had the occasional start, but ultimately ends up back on the bench, entering later in games. 

Orlando City acquired Muriel prior to the 2024 season when it appeared McGuire was on his way to Blackburn Rovers. However, the English side’s struggle with simple paperwork resulted in the Omaha, NE, native returning to Orlando. It left Oscar Pareja with some decisions to make.

The Lions often employ a 4-4-2 formation with a single striker and Muriel playing underneath. As a result, the three forwards all saw plenty of action in 2024.  Enrique started 12 games, Muriel 14, and McGuire was listed 18 times in the starting lineup. However, Enrique’s strong form near the end of the season saw him start 11 of the final 12 regular-season games and all five playoff contests.

Aiding Enrique’s playing time were injuries to McGuire. The 6-foot-1 striker suffered a shoulder injury on Nov. 9 in an MLS Cup playoff game against Charlotte FC, guaranteeing a starting spot for Enrique. As McGuire continued to work towards his return at the start of the year, Enrique took his place.

At times, it looks like Enrique is more than a substitute for Muriel or McGuire and can be the go-to scorer the Lions have struggled to find since Daryl Dike. But his inconsistency eventually returns, making it hard for Pareja to depend on the young attacker. That issue has been most noticeable during the two most recent games.

Putting shots on frame has been a struggle for the Lions this year, but it wasn’t for Enrique Wednesday night in St. Louis. After the Lions lost back-to-back games against Atlanta United and the Chicago Fire, Enrique was inserted into the starting lineup for Muriel. He took advantage of his opportunity in St. Louis, placing three of his five shots on target. He scored a first-half brace, giving his team a commanding three-goal lead after just 22 minutes.

In the seventh minute, Martin Ojeda sent a strong ball across the box that Enrique ran onto with perfect timing. He didn’t try to do too much, tapping the ball in on the slide. After Marco Pasalic made it 2-0, a bad turnover in the 22nd minute gave the striker a second chance. He was in on goal and made no mistake, slamming the ball past Roman Burki to make it 3-0.

The performance had many wondering if the team had finally found the striker it had been looking for since McGuire went down. But it wasn’t to be as Enrique reverted to his inconsistency with a poor performance in Saturday night’s 2-1 loss to FC Cincinnati.

The striker was unable to put any of his three shots on target, but that’s only part of the story. It’s how he failed to score that was the bigger problem.

In the 51st minute, Pasalic forced Brian Anunga into a turnover just outside the Cincinnati box. Enrique made a run toward the near post and Pasalic found him. The striker should’ve had no problem putting the shot on target, but he hit the ball with his left foot as his right came through, knocking the ball out of play for a goal kick.

He had a chance to redeem himself in second-half stoppage time with the Lions looking for an equalizer. Rafael Santos played a beautiful ball to the near post that only required a slight touch to beat Roman Celentano. However, the striker sent his header well wide, squandering a golden opportunity to claim a point.

These two games show the inconsistency that has plagued Enrique throughout his Orlando City career. He’ll look to be in excellent form and ready to claim the starting striker role, only to follow it up with a poor performance. It’s something that has held the Argentine back since his arrival and continues to do so this year.

Even more troublesome, it leaves Orlando City without a dependable striker. McGuire can’t seem to get over his shoulder problems, and he is currently on the sidelines again while he recovers from surgery on the opposite shoulder to the one he hurt in last year’s playoffs. Muriel and Ojeda often partner each other up top, but both are more comfortable in midfield positions.

Injuries and players in uncomfortable positions provide Enrique with the perfect situation. Consistent scoring would assure Pareja that he can depend on the 24-year-old to produce the goals his team has been searching for. But the striker can’t seem to put it together over the span of multiple games.

He’ll have plenty of opportunities in the near future to win the position he undoubtedly craves. McGuire’s absence due to injury and Muriel’s preference to play underneath means Enrique will likely get more playing time. However, he needs to show more consistency if he wants to hold onto the starting spot long-term.

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