Years ago, back during the early days of the new millennium, one of the first websites to ever “go viral” was the matchmaking site AmIHotOrNot.com. I, of course, never visited this site, as I had access to a mirror on the wall and already knew who was the fairest of them all (not me, the mirror was pretty clear about that). But as a college student during those years, I knew of the site and how it quickly was getting millions of views per day. Today’s topic is related to hot and not, but it is the significantly more important topic of Orlando City’s performance on the field during the 2025 season.

During the first six games of the season, the Lions looked better than any previous Orlando City team in the club’s MLS era in terms of early season offensive prowess. The squad led the league in goals scored, the Designated Players were scoring or contributing to nearly every goal, and with Duncan McGuire still to return to add even more firepower, it seemed like there might be the possibility of running out of purple smoke to shoot off in front of The Wall with how many goals Orlando City was scoring.

And then, with apologies to Prince, purple flames were doused by purple rain, and we found out what it sounds like when Lions fans cry. To understand why the offense went from 2.5 goals scored per game to being shut out in three straight matches for the first time since 2018 we need to first consider whether the start to the season was an aberration itself, and had our expectations misaligned for how this team would perform for the rest of the season. Let’s take a look at how the first six games of 2025 compared with the second half of the 2024 regular season (17 games):

For the most part it looks like the beginning of the 2025 season picked right up where the 2024 regular season ended (I intentionally excluded the 2024 playoffs from the data because playoff games tend to be played differently than regular-season games). There were some major changes in personnel from 2024 to 2025, but even with the changes in players, the style of play and the formation used by Orlando City remained the same, and most of the offensive stats are nearly exactly the same. Six games is a decent enough sample size to say that those stats from 2025 were not a fluke, and the offensive output that we saw in the second half of the 2024 season could be reasonably expected to continue at a similar pace.

But then it did not. Oh boy has it not. Looking at the same chart, but comparing the 2025 first six games to the 2025 most recent three matches gets an immediate “not hot” vote and is as ugly as a Bubba Sparxxx song.

The sharp-eyed observer will note that red cards are not noted anywhere above, and in those last three games Orlando City played nearly 50 minutes with only 10 players. In both of the games when a red card (the ultimate sum of two yellow cards by the same player) was given, Orlando City was ahead in expected goals at the moment the red card was issued, and while those do not count for anything officially, they indicate who was getting shots off from more dangerous locations. I thought Orlando City seemed more likely to score and take all three points in both games up until the dismissal of a player. Instead, of course, the Lions went down a player and immediately had to pivot to a more defensive posture, and with one fewer player on the field, they could not play (or at least maintain) the same style as they had been.

In addition to playing far more conservatively, in both games Orlando City substituted on a defender for a key attacking player within four minutes of the red card, removing Marco Pašalić in the game against New York and Luis Muriel in the game against Montréal. This was effectively a double negative, and not in the way that turns two negatives into a positive. It was more like f(x) = -2x, a function with a slope of -2 and…let me stop right there. It was bad, and hurt the offense to remove a key playmaker and goal scorer.

Another major issue is that the midfield engine of César Araújo and Eduard Atuesta have played a combined 11 minutes in the last three games, and all 11 of those minutes were played by Atuesta in the game against New York and after the red card. Araújo’s absence has definitely been felt, but as he is more of a deep-lying player and defensive destroyer, the team has been able to adequately replace him, but Atuesta’s offensive talents have been sorely missed. Atuesta may not have many goal contributions, but he is second on the team in shot-creating actions per 90 minutes (4.62) and first on the team in goal-creating actions per 90 minutes (1.20). That 1.20 is the highest in club history (fbref.com only has tracking back to 2018, so apologies to the legend Kaká) among players who played at least 500 minutes in a season, and it is nearly 50% higher than the player in second place in that stat, Mauricio Pereyra in 2020, when he averaged 0.82.

Might it be nice to be able to play a player who is creating a goal every 90 minutes? I think so. Joran Gerbet has played well, especially for a rookie, and specially especially (just go with it) for a rookie in the mentally and physically demanding role of a central midfielder. He has a ton of potential, but he is not yet as productive a player as Atuesta and when the Colombian playmaker returns the offense will get back a key cog that will help to create good shots, and in a game like soccer the difference between a goal and a miss is often a matter of inches, and a slightly better delivery on the pass can turn a shot into a shot on target and a shot on target into a goal.

Is it really as simple as just red cards and injuries, and that if Orlando City can keep its full complement of players on the field and get back some injured players, everything will go from not hot to hot again? Perhaps, but I think there is a style of play change that has also been causing some of the recent issues. I included rows on the charts above on the aggregation of completed crosses and switches (as in switches of the field) per game and medium and long passes completed per game, and from that chart you can see that the numbers are much lower in the last three games as compared to the beginning of this season and the final half of last season.

Those drops coincide with Rafael Santos playing only 59 minutes in the last three games, and with Alex Freeman not being able to get into the attack in the same way as he was in the season-opening games. There definitely is some overlap here with playing down a player and needing to keep defensive players back, but Santos’ offensive contributions (he is currently 20th in MLS in completed crosses + switches per 90 minutes), and even just the threat of him playing a long ball across the field to change the point of attack, have been missed by the Orlando City offense with him off the field. David Brekalo is an excellent defender, but his offensive contributions are more tied to his ability to win balls in the air, whereas Santos is among the league leaders in crosses and switches per 90 minutes, with Freeman one of his primary targets.

Brekalo playing left back certainly helped shore up a defense that had been leaking goals, and Santos was a major contributor to that with some poor defensive performances, but that tradeoff has removed a major threat to the Orlando City offense. Freeman’s reduction in offensive contributions has not helped, but I think the loss of Santos’ early crosses, long switches, and overlapping runs contributed more to the nearly 400-minute dry spell without a goal from open play. The Lions need him to find his form again, though he will not be able to do it against Atlanta, as he will be suspended.

Three games without a goal is unpleasant as a fan, but Orlando City battled in all three games and at least came away with a point. The defense is playing well, and despite many injuries, the Lions are still very much in the playoff hunt as the season approaches the one-third mark. There are legitimate reasons for the recent offensive swoon, and Araújo and Atuesta will likely be back shortly, and McGuire also may soon be able to start a game and offer a different offensive look. Ramiro Enrique heated up once spring turned to summer in 2024, and when all four of those players are back to full health, the team will once again have a deep roster full of players aggressively competing for minutes.

Óscar Pareja historically has used the first half of a season to find his preferred lineup for the stretch run of the season, and I believe this is another season when he will be playing the long game and seeing what he has at his disposal. The red cards and injuries provided short-term pain in terms of points dropped, but they will likely also provide long-term gain with the view into how the players play in different positions and combinations.

It is a long season, with two cup competitions still to start, in addition to 25 more regular-season games, and summer does not even start until June. I expect that a lot of the issues from the recent run of games will work themselves out with time. We just need to keep our cool and wait for the inevitable Orlando City late season hot streak.

Orlando City returns to Inter&Co Stadium to host Atlanta United on Saturday after a 0-0 draw at Montreal over the weekend. Orlando City’s rivals from the north sit in 12th place in the Eastern Conference, but that doesn’t ensure a victory. The Lions are coming off three straight scoreless draws and need to get some goals and a win. What does Orlando City need to do to take all three points against Atlanta United?

Lock Down Latte Lath

I’m not entirely sure how to pronounce Emmanuel Latte Lath’s name. Is it Latte as in the coffee drink and Lath as in bath? I don’t want to get it wrong, but I suppose it doesn’t matter in print. Regardless, the Orlando City defense will need to keep him off the scoresheet.

With Rafael Santos serving a red card suspension and Rodrigo Schlegel returning from a red card suspension, I suspect we will see a back line of Alex Freeman on the right, Schlegel and Robin Jansson at center back, and David Brekalo on the left. That is Orlando City’s strongest back line so far in 2025. The only other defensive question is who will play in the defensive midfield?

Defensive Midfield Shuffle

Will we see the return of Cesar Araujo and Eduard Atuesta? Will Dagur Dan Thorhallsson and Joran Gerbet get the start yet again? Who we see in the defensive midfield may determine the outcome of the match.

When healthy, Araujo and Atuesta are first choice, but if one or the other is still unable to start, then it will be up to Thorhallsson and Gerbet to deal with Miguel Almiron and Aleksei Miranchuk on the right side of Atlanta’s attack. If the pair can play like they did against the New York Red Bulls, then another clean sheet is possible. Of course, that isn’t the only assignment.

Find the Attack

It’s been three matches since the Lions conceded a goal. Sadly, it’s also been three matches since Orlando City has scored a goal. That has to change this week. Atlanta has given up 16 goals this season, which is second worst only to D.C. United with 19. There is opportunity here if the Lions can be more clinical around the net.

It will start with whichever players start in the defensive midfield (I told you they had another assignment). After that, it will be up to Orlando City’s playmakers. I feel that the Orlando City attack is better with Duncan McGuire on the pitch, but who do you take off? Ivan Angulo finally found some decent form the last couple of matches, but I still think you put him on the bench.

I’ve been calling for McGuire up top with Luis Muriel dropping deeper and Martin Ojeda and Marco Pasalic on either side. Put the best players on the pitch at the same time. With Brekalo locking down the left side of the defense, the need for Angulo’s speed is less urgent. I hope that Orlando City’s four best attacking players can break the scoring dam the Lions find themselves in.

That is what I will be looking for Saturday night. Let me know your thoughts in the comments below. Vamos Orlando!

How’s it going, Mane Landers? It’s been a few days since a rough weekend for Orlando City and the Orlando Pride. Time heals all wounds, but let’s also hope it heals offenses considering both teams were shut out. Let’s go ahead and manifest some good officiating this weekend as well while we’re at it. That might be a tall order, but I’m feeling optimistic. Let’s get to the links!

Orlando Pride Prepare for Angel City FC

The Orlando Pride will look to bounce back when they welcome Angel City FC to the City Beautiful for a home game Friday night. Orlando lost its first game of the year and first home game since 2023 last week against the Washington Spirit, falling 1-0. Angel City is also coming off of its first loss of the season, falling 4-0 at home to NJ/NY Gotham FC at home. Pride defender Kerry Abello spoke on how the Pride will need to create better chances compared to last week as they prepare to right the ship with a home victory.

Orlando City B Drops a Spot in Power Rankings

Although OCB fell from third to fourth in the latest MLS NEXT Pro power rankings, the Young Lions are solidly in the top five teams in the league. OCB was on a bye last weekend, so not moving too much in the rankings can be expected. While the Young Lions fell 3-2 in their last league game against Inter Miami II, spirits are likely high with the team due to the Orlando City U-18 team’s success in the Generation Adidas Cup. Let’s hope the Young Lions can ride that momentum into Sunday night’s match with New York Red Bulls II.

MLS Deadline Day Transfer News

The MLS transfer deadline day has come and gone and there were some notable moves to catch up on. Real Salt Lake’s deal with Boavista for forward Robert Bozenik reportedly collapsed, but the club still added striker William Agada from Sporting Kansas City in exchange for $500,000 in 2025 General Allocation Money and another $350,000 in GAM if he re-signs. Inter Miami traded winger Robert Taylor to Austin FC in exchange for up to $750,000 in GAM, with only $50,000 of that being conditional. Atlanta United traded winger Xande Silva to St. Louis City SC for up to $250,000 in GAM as well.

The Houston Dynamo also have a new forward, signing Toyosi Olusanya from Scottish club St. Mirren. The New England Revolution traded Noel Buck to the San Jose Earthquakes for up to $650,000 in cold, hard cash, reuniting the 20-year-old with Bruce Arena. Frankie Amaya is back in MLS, joining LAFC on loan from Toluca. As of this writing, Minnesota United are reportedly in hot pursuit of Miami’s Julian Gressel.

Keeping Up With the Americans Abroad

The race for a place in the English Premier League is heating up in the EFL Championship and Americans are right in the thick of it. Brenden Aaronson and Leeds United have already secured promotion, along with Burnley. Forward Haji Wright has scored 12 goals for Coventry City this season, and his club currently holds the final playoff spot. Midfielder Aidan Morris and Middlesbrough are three points behind, while former Lion Daryl Dike and West Brom will need to win their remaining two matches for a shot at sneaking in.

In Italy, Christian Pulisic started in AC Milan’s 3-0 victory over rival Inter to book a spot in the Italian Cup final on May 14. Fellow American Yunus Musah was an unused substitute. Catarina Macario scored twice and Mia Fishel added a goal as well in Chelsea’s 4-0 win against Crystal Palace, helping their team get ever closer to winning its sixth straight Women’s Super League title.

Free Kicks

• German legend Thomas Muller, who is set to leave Bayern Munich this summer, reportedly rejected an offer from FC Cincinnati and Fiorentina.
• Philadelphia Union midfielder Quinn Sullivan won MLS Goal of the Matchday for his volleyed strike against Atlanta. Seeing Atlanta get scored on really makes the goal that much sweeter to watch.
• Marcus Rashford is reportedly aiming to join a Champions League team after this season. The 27-year-old is on loan with Aston Villa from Manchester United and should be an interesting name to keep an eye on this summer.
• Arsenal’s 2-2 draw against Crystal Palace kept a few champagne bottles corked, as Liverpool would have won the league title if Arsenal lost. Liverpool now just needs a point when it faces Tottenham at home on Sunday.
• Real Madrid beat Getafe 1-0, but it came at the cost of injuries to both David Alaba and Eduardo Camavinga. The Spanish club may now have a crisis at left back ahead of Saturday’s Copa del Rey final against Barcelona.

That’s it for today’s links! Make sure to stay hydrated out there as we get closer and closer to summer. Have a wonderful Thursday and rest of your week.