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Converting More Big Chances Could Propel Orlando City’s Season Into An Epic Universe

An analysis of Orlando City’s conversion rate on big chances and an evaluation of the impact of a small improvement .

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Dan MacDonald, The Mane Land

If you could all hop in the Wayback Machine with me, I would like to take you all the way back to Sunday, May 18, 2025. It was a glorious day, punctuated by a 3-0 victory over Orlando City’s southern rivals Inter Miami. The Five Takeaways article about that game was pretty awesome too, and in that article, the dashingly handsome and spellbindingly brilliant author noted that Orlando City “could, and probably should, have scored five or even six goals” against Miami.

You probably surmised that the author of that Five Takeaways article was me, and I appreciate your immediate recognition of my handsomeness and brilliance. I am also pretty confident that you believe that Orlando City should have scored more than three goals as well, and I am here to tell you that the eye test and the tracking data agree. The wonderful site fotmob.com tracks a statistic coded by analysts from Opta called “big chances,” which they define on their frequently asked questions page as:

A situation where a player should reasonably be expected to score, usually in a one on one scenario or from very close range when the ball has a clear path to goal and there is low to moderate pressure on the shooter. Penalties are always considered big chances.

The key words in their definition are “reasonably be expected,” and so, while the word ‘expected’ is in this definition, do not confuse “reasonably be expected” with “expected goals” (xG). I think of expected goals more like a geography problem, kind of like the game show Where in the World is Carmen Sandiego? Was that an excuse just to mention that one of my best friends was a contestant on that show in 1994 and won a trip to Orlando? A gentleman never tells.

Back to the geography problem, expected goals is really just a mapping exercise, mapping conversion percentages to locations all over a soccer field and then summing up all the shots taken from those locations in a game. By that measure, fbref.com had Orlando City with an xG of 2.9 against Miami, extremely close to the actual output of three goals. Earlier in the season, however, the xG tracking was 1.6 against Toronto…but the Lions scored four goals.

There are countless examples of the real results not matching the xG. While I value xG and just finished reading a great book called How To Win The Premier League: The Inside Story of Football (soccer)’s Data Revolution, which details the history of expected goals and how the author — the former director of research at Liverpool — helped build the first analytics department at a Premier League club using xG as a foundational measurement tool, I still think xG needs to be used alongside other measures and cannot stand alone by itself.

One of the main reasons I think it needs to be combined with other data is that xG requires a shot to be taken, and sometimes that does not happen. Consider Orlando City’s third goal against Miami, if Duncan McGuire’s cross had gone untouched then the xG on that play would have gone from 0.56 to 0.0, because without a shot attempt there is no shot location, and no map coordinates to use to find the xG for that area of the field.

This takes us back to that definition of big chances, which notably does not include a requirement for a shot to be taken. Duncan McGuire’s pass clearly created a chance to score, and that pass, combined with the perfectly timed run from Dagur Dan Thórhallsson, meant that Orlando City had a great opportunity to score from a location where anyone with eyes would think that “a player should reasonably be expected to score.” If Thórhallsson had whiffed, then the xG would have said no sir, you get 0.0 xG, even though everyone who watched that pass would have said, “Oh my, he should have scored that, what a big chance missed.”

Note: Thórhallsson did not miss, and it was glorious.

According to Opta’s tracking, Orlando City had eight big chances in the game against Miami. Which sounds closer to your memory of that match: Orlando City’s xG was 2.9 or Orlando City created eight big chances to score? I think most people probably think of the latter and remember the breakaways and the close-range opportunities and how it seemed like Orlando City had so many clear chances to score.

Looking at the 2025 season to date, the Lions are tied for the MLS lead with 50 big chances thus far, and just as against Miami, you can see that their conversion rate on those big chances has not been great:

ClubBig ChancesBig Chances ConvertedConversion Rate
San Jose502040%
Orlando City501428%
Chicago461839%
Columbus461430%
Nashville411229%
Vancouver402153%
LAFC391436%
Miami392051%
Minnesota391436%
Portland371643%
MLS Average*3412.437%
  • *The MLS Average is the average of every team except Orlando City

If you were wondering, yes, 28% is among the league’s worst conversion rates on big chances. It is tied for second worst, ahead of only Austin, which must be driving its fans up the wall with a 19% conversion rate on 31 big chances. Maybe the release of Wicked at the end of 2024 put the kibosh on good things happening to those in green for a while. Vancouver, on the other hand, is out there Burning Blue like Mariah the Scientist (contemporary pop song alert), converting a league-leading 53% of its big chances.

For Orlando City, however, 28% feels right. It feels terrible, but it also feels right. How many times did it seem like it would be harder not to score than to score, but then the Lions went ahead and did not score? Luis Muriel leads the team with 12 big chances missed (second most in MLS), and while it takes an extreme amount of skill and work to get into position to miss chances, the reality is that 12 times independent analysts thought Muriel should reasonably have been expected to score and he did not.

Anytime there is a lower-than-average performance there is always a question of whether that performance is reality or if there is a regression to the mean coming. In this case, regression to the mean would actually be positive, or something more akin to ascension to the mean. If Orlando City performs at a conversion rate similar to that of the rest of the league, the Lions will score about one additional goal per every 10 big chances, or an additional five goals over their next 50 big chances generated.

Considering that the Lions generated those 50 big chances in 14 games, it is easy math to double that and put Orlando City at 100 big chances after 28 games at the current pace. That extra five goals, were it to happen and the team continued to similarly convert its “small chances,” would net the team 32 goals in the next 14 games, and take the team to 59 after 28 games, with six more games still to play in the season.

Readers of UpRoar, the weekly newsletter for The Mane Land’s Buy Me a Coffee subscribers, which you can subscribe to by clicking this link, will know that Orlando City’s offense is already on pace to break the club’s MLS goal-scoring record, which is…wait for it…59 goals, and so, if the Lions could start converting more of their big chances, then the 2025 team could not only break that record but smash it — like, epically smash it like the Super Smash Brothers.

And speaking of…what better way to celebrate today’s official opening of Epic Universe but to imagine Óscar Pareja and the coaching staff out there training their goal-scoring dragons and super Marco and Luis-gi to tame the dark world of opposition defenses with their Harry Potter-esque offensive wizardry?

That would be epic, and if you are asking me what the coaching staff should do, that is what I pick.

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Orlando City

Orlando City vs. Nashville SC: Five Takeaways

Here’s what we learned from a regrettable 3-2 loss to Nashville SC in the U.S. Open Cup.

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

Orlando City came into the U.S. Open Cup Round of 16 match against Nashville SC riding a 12-match unbeaten streak, including a 3-0 thrashing of in-state rival Inter Miami on Sunday. The Lions’ next match against the Portland Timbers looms on Saturday. Despite the glut of matches, Orlando fielded most of the normal starters in an effort to advance. Unfortunately, the Lions fell 3-2 to the visitors to end any hopes of another Open Cup trophy. Here are my five takeaways from a disappointing midweek match.

Pasalic Power

Marco Pasalic decided he wanted to do it all himself on the first goal. As he has so often, he went up the right side before cutting in to the left and burying an absolute rocket of a shot into the back of the net to give Orlando City the early lead. It’s the type of goal we’ve come to expect from Pasalic since his arrival and it was his first U.S. Open Cup goal on his debut in the competition. Unfortunately, he’ll have to wait until at least next year for his next USOC match.

Tired Starters

One could see that the Orlando City defenders were running on tired legs. It seemed obvious in the two goals given up in the first half. The first goal bounced around in the box and then off of Rodrigo Schlegel for an own goal. On the second goal, no one stepped to Ahmed Qasem at the top of the box, allowing him to put an easy shot into the bottom right corner of the goal.

Alex Freeman was near Qasem, but had to anticipate a pass to the wing. Cesar Araujo trailed Qasem passively, and he was not in position to do anything when the Nashville attacker opted to take the space the defense gave him. On the left side, Nashville’s attackers torched David Brekalo from the start. The defense simply looked tired, including Araujo in central midfield.

Enrique’s Equalizer

Orlando City came back out after halftime looking much better on the ball. The tactical adjustments worked as the team pushed for an equalizer. Working along the right side of the attack, Freeman sent the ball to Pasalic, who smartly provided a one-touch pass to Ramiro Enrique for the finish. It was a well-worked attack and a beautiful finish.

Handball Debacle

In the 72nd minute, there was a handball in the box on Nashville’s Wyatt Meyer. Unfortunately, referee Joshua Encarnacion did not make the call. To make matters worse, he then gave Freeman a yellow card for dissent a little further down the field seconds later. There is no video review in the U.S. Open Cup, so there was no second look available to make the correct call. It was a double whammy of a situation. To then pour salt on the wound, Meyer scored Nashville’s third goal to give the visitors the lead again.

Taking it Too Seriously?

Oscar Pareja takes the U.S. Open Cup seriously. So seriously that he started most of the regulars despite the emotional and physical toll taken in the match against Inter Miami and the volume of minutes they’ve played throughout May every three days. Initially, it looked to be the right decision, but the two first-half goals by Nashville put that into question. The number of minutes played by some of the starters — who will need to play against the Portland Timbers this weekend — may turn one loss into two. That being said, I wanted Pareja to prioritize the Open Cup over the Leagues Cup, and we’ll find out in July and August if that’s the case.


Those are my takeaways from Orlando City’s 3-2 loss to Nashville in the U.S. Open Cup. It was a disappointing result on a night where Nashville didn’t bring their A-squad, but did bring its A-game.

Let us know your thoughts about the Nashville SC match in the comments below. Vamos Orlando!

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Lion Links

Lion Links: 5/22/25

Orlando City ousted from U.S. Open Cup, OCB’s Justin Ellis named Player of the Matchweek, Tottenham wins Europa League, and more.

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

Well, that could have gone better. It’s understandable to feel a bit deflated after Wednesday night’s game, especially after so many positive Orlando City results as of late. The good news though is that we’re another day closer to a holiday weekend that should include some good times or at least rest and relaxation. Let’s dive into today’s links!

Orlando City Eliminated from U.S. Open Cup

The Lions lost 3-2 at home to Nashville SC in the U.S. Open Cup’s round of 16, ending the team’s run in the tournament. Orlando struck first in a rollercoaster of a match, and Ramiro Enrique pulled the Lions level after they fell behind, but rookie Wyatt Meyer scored the winner for the visitors. The loss snapped Orlando’s 12-game unbeaten streak across all competitions and Orlando looked like a team that played five other matches already this month. Orlando will need to shake off this loss as it prepares to host the Portland Timbers on Saturday.

Justin Ellis Named MLS NEXT Pro Player of the Matchweek

Orlando City B midfielder Justin Ellis was selected as MLS NEXT Pro Player of the Matchweek for his role in the team’s 3-0 win over Inter Miami II. Ellis, who turned 18 years old last week, assisted on both of OCB’s first two goals before scoring from the penalty spot himself. It’s been quite the year so far for Ellis, as he also scored six goals in the Generation Adidas Cup to help Orlando win the U-18 title in April. The Young Lions are back in action Friday with a road match against rival Atlanta United 2.

U.S. Open Cup Round of 16 Results

Comebacks were a theme throughout the U.S. Open Cup’s round of 16. Minnesota United took the lead, gave it up, and ultimately advanced thanks to defender Anthony Markanich scoring two late goals to beat St. Louis City 3-2 at Allianz Arena. Markanich was traded from St. Louis to Minnesota last year, adding a little salt in the wound for the visitors. D.C. United and Charlotte FC battled in a back-and-forth match that ended up with D.C. winning the penalty shootout after a 3-3 draw. The match between the New York Red Bulls and FC Dallas also went the distance, with the Red Bulls winning the shootout. The Philadelphia Union won 4-1 against the Pittsburgh Riverhounds to eliminate the last team from outside MLS. The draw for the quarterfinals will take place this morning.

Tottenham Hotspur Wins Europa League Final

Tottenham prevailed in this year’s Europa league final, winning 1-0 against Manchester United in Spain. Brennan Johnson’s goal was enough for Tottenham to end its 17-year wait for a major trophy. It was a bit of an underwhelming finish to what was a fairly exciting knockout stage, and this was United’s only loss in this year’s tournament. Tottenham has now qualified for next season’s Champions League despite currently being 17th in the English Premier League standings.

Free Kicks


That’s all I have for you this time around. I hope you all have a wonderful Thursday and rest of your week!

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Orlando City

Orlando City vs. Nashville SC, U.S. Open Cup: Final Score 3-2 as Lions Crash Out of the Cup

The Lions are out of the 2025 U.S. Open Cup after just two matches, looking leggy and tired against a fresher Nashville side.

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

Orlando City took an early lead, gave up a couple of poor first-half goals, and then conceded a late game winner in a 3-2 loss to Nashville SC in U.S. Open Cup play at Inter&Co Stadium. Head Coach Oscar Pareja fielded a strong lineup while the visitors rotated heavily, and the fresher legs won despite the travel.

Marco Pasalic provided an early lead before an own goal on Rodrigo Schlegel and an Ahmed Qasem goal put Nashville ahead at the break. Ramiro Enrique equalized in the second half, but a blast from fullback Wyatt Meyer ultimately knocked Orlando out of the competition. Nashville did it without star forwards Hany Mukhtar and Sam Surridge or starting goalkeeper Joe Willis.

“I think it was a good match for two teams who have an offensive proposal or initiative,” Pareja said after the match. “I think early in the game we found a team that wanted to use the spaces offensively, and we didn’t find a team who wants to drop, and I have to say they did a good job on that part. So, we ended up playing the first half lower than we wanted, and despite our goal, our offensive was not as frequent as we wanted.”

Pareja fielded nearly a complete first-choice lineup for this Round of 16 matchup, with Pedro Gallese in goal behind a back line of David Brekalo, Robin Jansson, Schlegel, and Alex Freeman. Cesar Araujo and Joran Gerbet started in central midfield with attacking midfielders Dagur Dan Thorhallsson, Martin Ojeda, and Pasalic, with Enrique up top.

At the start of the game, it was easy to tell which was the fresher team. Nashville rotated its lineup heavily and had more jump in the opening minutes. Orlando nevertheless was able to create some transition opportunities and earned a couple of early corners, but the Lions could not do anything with them. The closest opportunity was a header well over the bar from Schlegel on the second such opportunity.

Nashville had a warning shot in the 16th minute as a corner kick cross was deflected out in front of Gallese’s goal and floated off the right post.

Orlando opened the scoring a minute later. Pasalic cut in from the right side and smashed a shot from 30 yards out that gave Brian Schwake no chance to stop it, putting the Lions up 1-0 in the 17th minute. It was the Croatian’s first U.S. Open Cup goal in his first appearance in the competition.

“Sometimes it’s better to shoot faster, because maybe the goalkeeper is not prepared,” Pasalic said of his long-range bomb. “So, today was was my chance.”

The celebration was short-lived, as Nashville tied the game just six minutes later. Ahmed Qasem got down the left past Brekalo and Jansson and centered a ball for Bunbury, who was tangling in front with Schlegel. The ball, which may have gone over the end line before the cross (there is no video review in the U.S. Open Cup), deflected just over the line off Schlegel for an own goal, tying the game in the 23rd minute.

“We started good in the game, played really good. The tactic was also really good, and then came the first goal,” Pasalic said. “Then we conceded the goal of Nashville really fast, and this was a big problem.”

Freeman had a chance to mimic Pasalic’s goal in the 30th minute, only from a bit closer to goal at the top of the box. The right back didn’t get his hips turned enough on the shot and sent it wide to the left of goal.

The visitors took the lead on an embarrassing goal in the 40th minute. Qasem wasn’t in a particularly threatening position 25 yards out from goal off to the left, but when Araujo ignored him and left him in space, he sent a shot from distance that didn’t have a ton of pace on it, and Schlegel opted not to try to block it. The shot somehow just found its way through the box diagonally and inside the right post to make it 2-1.

Schlegel had a late opportunity to make up for some defensive lapses late in the half when Orlando won a corner. The defender did well to get across his mark, but he headed his shot wide in the 45the minute.

Enrique sent another header wide off a corner in stoppage time and the Lions went to the break trailing on two of the more preventable goals they’ve conceded all season.

Nashville held the halftime edge in possession (57.5%-42.5%), and passing accuracy (88%-85%), while Orlando led in shots (8-4) and corners (6-2). Each team put one shot on frame.

Orlando tried to tie the match right out of the break, sending Freeman a ball over the top. The fullback tracked it down and fired, but his shot was wide of the right post in the 46th minute. The Lions scored on their next shot. Freeman opened the play up in the middle of the pitch and made a nice pass to Pasalic, who slipped in a perfect ball for Enrique to run onto. Enrique finished his shot through Schwake in the 58th minute to tie the game at 2-2.

Orlando had a chance to take the lead just two minutes later when Brekalo made a fantastic pass to send Pasalic down the right. The Croatian tried to cut a pass back into the middle, where Thorhallsson and Enrique were making runs, but the attempt was just behind both, and Nashville cleared the danger.

Pasalic went for his brace in the 63rd minute, firing a shot inside the box that fizzed over the crossbar.

Ten minutes later, the Lions — vehemently — felt they should have had a penalty. What appeared to be a clear handball in the box was let go by referee Joshua Encarnacion. Orlando City players protested to no avail, and it was a play that weighed heavily on Pareja’s mind after the match, as the play could have been a huge difference maker in a tie game.

“I hate to say this, but the (lack of a) PK was incredible,” Pareja said. “We reviewed it, and it’s impossible that a referee cannot see that handball. This is a tournament where we’re investing. This is a tournament that we’re (taking) serious. It’s a tournament that our club wanted to be well represented. It’s incredible for me that a referee of this category cannot see that PK. It is impossible because I know that he saw it. Obviously we take our part, but the (no call on) the PK was incredible — not conceding something that is so clear.”

Five minutes after the no-call in Orlando’s attacking end, there was a no-call in the Lions’ defensive end, as Freeman appeared to be fouled just outside his defensive penalty area. Encarnacion allowed play to go on as Nashville recovered the loose ball in the left corner and sent it across the face of goal. Qasem picked it up in the right corner, muscled his way free of second-half sub Ivan Angulo, and passed to Patrick Yazbek just inside the top of the box. Yazbek had traffic in front of him, so he sent a backheel drop pass to Meyer, who fired a laser just inside the right post for what turned out to be the game winner.

“I think we had the game under control,” Pasalic said. “One moment we are not paying attention. (Nashville gets) the goal and the luck. We missed the luck at the end. And I think it hurts a lot.”

“Today, the game showed us that we have to be on our toes all the time,” Pareja said. “When you see that something is fixed, and something is good, and the game comes and exposes you in this manner. It just tells us that we have to keep going.”

Substitute Luis Muriel blasted a shot just wide of the left post in the 84th minute as Nashville dropped its block low to protect the lead. The effort was a good one, but Schwake had it covered if it had been on frame.

Pareja sent Duncan McGuire and Rafael Santos on to add more attacking players. Moments later, Angulo sent a cross into the box for a visibly tiring Freeman. The cross was a little behind the fullback, who still managed to get his head to it but couldn’t generate enough power on the shot to beat Schwake in the 86th minute. Two minutes later, Pasalic put the ball on his left foot again and blasted another shot over the bar.

Orlando City had seven minutes of stoppage time to score a goal to stay in the tournament, but the Lions couldn’t even generate a scoring chance.

The Lions ended up with the advantage in possession (51.5%-48.5%), shots (15-7), corners (8-4), and passing accuracy (86.5%-85%). Both teams put three shots on target, and the lack of precision was one of the reasons Orlando City is out of the tournament.

Despite having traveled, Nashville looked fresher, especially down the stretch. Araujo and Ojeda looked tired before the first half ended, and Freeman looked shattered down the stretch. But Pareja and Pasalic did not use tired legs as an excuse. Pareja said he wanted to keep the defensive solidity of the most recent games while rotating a bit in the attack. He also said that some injuries prevented him from rotating more, as Eduard Atuesta was still unavailable despite being back in training.

“I think along the game we played well,” Pareja said. “We should have more energy at the beginning of the second half. I thought the boys started with that energy, but we didn’t keep it.”


It’ll be another short turnaround for Orlando City, as the team’s regular season resumes Saturday at home against the Portland Timbers.

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