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Orlando City’s Offense Has Been Shooting Like Stars During MLS Play

An analysis of Orlando City’s top tier shooting performance thus far during MLS games

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

One of the perils of writing about a team playing in multiple competitions is that this article, which is focused on Orlando City’s performance in MLS play, may look silly when it comes out as the most recent game played will be Wednesday evening’s Leagues Cup game against Liga MX opponent Toluca. As I do not own a sports almanac from the future, à la Biff Tannen in Back to the Future Part II, I do not know how the game will turn out as of this writing, but just know that the trends and data points in this article are all solely based on Orlando City’s MLS games, and do not take into account the U.S Open Cup or Leagues Cup performances.

Enough with the disclaimer, let’s get going.

You may have read that last week Perplexity CEO Aravind Srinivas made an unsolicited $34.5 billion dollar bid to buy Google’s Chrome browser. While being interviewed by the New York Times as to why he made that bid, he paraphrased one of the most famous quotes in sports, saying, “You lose 100% of the shots you don’t take,” which is similar to the quote originally stated by hockey legend Wayne Gretzky: “You miss 100% of the shots you don’t take.”

As you expected when clicking on this article, quotes from a Silicon Valley CEO and NHL legend.

Orlando City has taken this motto to heart thus far this season, as a quick glance at the MLS leaderboards shows the following (all data from Opta’s tracking and found on fbref.com; goals, shots, and shots on target are per 90 minutes):

MetricOrlando CityMLS RankMLS Average
Goals1.9621.42
Shots15.85112.42
Shots on Target (SoT)5.4414.29
Goal Conversion per SoT34.0%630.0%

Much like in golf, low numbers in the MLS Rank column are better, and the Orlando City offense is clearly taking its Orlando Health sponsorship to heart and playing like Arnold Palmer. For those who do not live in Orlando, that’s a reference to Arnold Palmer Hospital in the Orlando Health hospital system. When you have to explain the reference, that might be a sign that you need a mulligan. Let’s move on.

The Lions are one of only nine teams in the league performing better than the MLS average in both shots per 90 minutes and goal conversion per shots on target, and considering they lead the league in shots on target per 90 minutes, it is no surprise that they are tied for the lead in overall goals scored, with 53, and are second in the league in goals per 90 minutes, trailing only some team that wears pink but that also knows that Florida is purple.

The scatterplot below shows the locations of every team for its shots per 90 minutes (x-axis) and goal conversion rate (y-axis), and Orlando City is comfortably in the green quadrant (above average on both metrics) and is the closest team to the ideal location, which would be the upper right corner, indicating a team taking a high number of shots and converting a high percentage of its shots on target into goals.

This is a chart built into four quadrants that shows how well each of the 30 MLS teams have performed in total shots per game on the x-axis and goal conversion rate on shots on target on the y-axis. Orlando City is in the upper right quadrant, as they are above the league average on both metrics.

Orlando City’s offensive prowess has been driven by a few players, and to demonstrate this we are going to harken back all the way to what I wrote about last week — the metric called goals added, or g+.

I mentioned in that article that a field player’s total g+ came from the aggregation of their performance in six different categories, with one of those six being shooting. Taking shots from dangerous locations, striking them well, and putting them on target are the sub-components of the shooting portion of g+, and Orlando City has several players who have been elite this season, as can be seen in the chart below (all data from americansocceranalysis.com):

PlayerPositionMLS RankPosition Rank
Marco PašalićW72
Martín OjedaAM143
Luis MurielST3322
Ramiro EnriqueST7035
Alex FreemanFB742

Orlando City has five players in the top 75 in the shooting component of g+, and as a reminder, with 30 teams in the league, the expected number for each team would be to have 2.5 players in the top 75. The Lions have twice that. They and Charlotte are the only teams with five players in the top 75, and they and Chicago are the only teams with three players in the top 33.

As a quick aside, I enjoy how the sites I use the most for data — fbref.com and americansocceranalysis.com — both list out Orlando City’s right back as Alexander Freeman instead of Alex Freeman. It makes sense, as he is great.

In last week’s article I also expressed my surprise that Ojeda was not in the top 10 in g+. One game later he took care of that and he now ranks ninth overall and is nipping at the gils heels of Carles Gil in eighth.

The Lions have those five players in the top 75, and if you look at every team’s combined goals added by shooting, they rank first overall, 30% better than the league average . The three Designated Players lead the way, but it takes a team effort to rank first overall. You will likely not be surprised to learn that Lionel Messi ranks first in goals added by shooting, but even with him as the league leader, the Herons rank 12th as a team — just slightly about the league average.

Orlando City’s defense has not been bad this season, but it’s been the offense that has driven the team’s recent success, and with one of the league’s most difficult remaining schedules, the Lions will need the offense to remain prolific to finish strong in the regular season, as Óscar Pareja teams usually do, and make a deep run in the playoffs.

To paraphrase another great quote about shooting, from one Marshall Mathers (better known as Eminem), they have one shot to seize everything they ever wanted this season. Will they capture it or just let it slip?

I believe they are going to capture it. I am calling their shot.

Vamos Orlando!

Orlando City

Intelligence Report: Orlando City vs. New York City FC

Get up to speed on the Pigeons ahead of Saturday’s game, courtesy of someone who knows them best.

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Image of Braian Ojeda playing against New York City FC.
Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

Happy Friday, everyone. Orlando City got a week of rest after taking care of business against D.C. United at home, and it returns to the purple palace Saturday night to face a New York City FC team with its back against the wall in the race for a playoff place.

A showdown with the Pigeons means I caught up with Matthew Mangam of New York Soccer Journal. As always, he was helpful in getting us up to speed on NYCFC, and we appreciate his help. I also answered some of his questions about Orlando City, so make sure you check them out over at their place!

Talk me through NYCFC’s summer transfer business. Who’s out, who’s in to replace them, and how have they performed?

Matthew Mangam: NYCFC’s summer business wasn’t anything groundbreaking. The club brought in striker Luighi on loan from SE Palmeiras and got back midfielder/defender James Sands, whose loan with St. Pauli ended. 

Luighi started off well, bagging four goals in his first seven league appearances. But since then, the 20-year-old is on a five-game drought. To his credit, Luighi started only two of his last five games. As for Sands, this is his third stint at NYCFC, so the versatile 26-year-old was welcomed back with open arms. 

The biggest acquisition this summer, though, was Bénie Traoré. The winger joined the club as a Designated Player from FC Basel in Switzerland, but it hasn’t gone well. In 15 league appearances, Traoré has one goal — a penalty kick that hit off the post and went in — and no assists. 

The club’s last move that didn’t happen in the summer surprised everyone: adding free agent Matt Miazga. The veteran defender hasn’t made his debut yet, and I’m honestly not sure when he will. 

New York City has been a wildly different team since the league restarted after the World Cup. What’s happened to cause the change in form?

MM: I honestly don’t know where to start with this one. There’s so much I could say, but if I did then I’d be here all day. I’ll narrow it down to this: NYCFC can’t play a complete 90 minutes. 

NYCFC has conceded six goals in stoppage time this season, is 0-4-12 after falling behind 16 times, and is 4-5-6 at home. So, they can’t hang onto leads — they’ve lost seven points after the 75th minute — they have no come-from-behind wins, and they’re poor at home. 

There are other smaller factors, like injuries, individual mistakes from usually solid players (Matt Freese and Sands), and players struggling, but, as I said, it’s a lot.

The playoffs are still in reach, as NYCFC is just two points out of eighth. What needs to happen in order to get above the line and stay there?

MM: Simply put, NYCFC needs to win all four remaining games, or, at the very least, go 3-1-0. Teams around them, like Toronto, Columbus, and Cincinnati, are picking up wins and building separation, so NYCFC is in a do-or-die situation. 

Getting Alonso Martínez back and starting again is huge, but you can’t expect him to return from a brutal injury and save the team immediately; it’s not fair. Traoré has to step up and show why the club paid DP money for him — one lone goal that, in my opinion, fortunately went in, and no goals from open play is extremely concerning. 

Also, Nico Fernández Mercau hasn’t scored in five matches. He’s getting double- and triple-marked because teams are now well aware of how talented the Argentine is, but he has to find a way back on the scoresheet in this stretch. NYCFC needs him to. So, so badly. 

Will any players be unavailable due to injury, suspension, etc.? What is your projected starting lineup and score prediction?

MM: The only players out are the ones with long-term injuries: Keaton Parks, Kai Trewin, Maxi Moralez, Arnau Farnós, and Drew Baiera. 

Given that NYCFC needs to win or the season is practically over, I expect Head Coach Pascal Jansen to leave it all out there with his best possible lineup:

Matt Freese; Kevin O’Toole, James Sands, Thiago Martins, Tayvon Gray; Andres Perea, Aiden O’Neill; Hannes Wolf, Nico Fernández Mercau, Agustin Ojeda; Alonso Martínez.

I think Nico Fernández Mercau and Alonso Martínez score, but it won’t be enough, as Antoine Griezmann gets a brace and both teams settle for a 2-2 draw. 


Thank you to Matt for his excellent refresher on NYCFC. Vamos Orlando!

Image of the famous "The more you know" graphic from TV.
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Lion Links

Lion Links: 10/23/26

Orlando City prepares for New York City FC, Antoine Griezmann’s impact in Orlando, U.S. will host FIFA Women’s Club World Cup, and more.

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Image of Antoine Griezmann taking a set piece against Monterrey in Leagues Cup action.
Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

Happy Friday, Mane Landers! It’s been a pretty nice week for me, as I was able to watch all of Slow Horses and finish reading Bad Words by Rioghnach Robinson, both of which were brilliant. Attention now turns to this weekend’s soccer, with both Orlando City and the Orlando Pride playing at home over the next couple of days. Let’s get to the links!

Orlando City Prepares for New York City FC

The Lions host New York City FC on Saturday in one of the marquee matchups in MLS as the regular season nears its conclusion. Plenty has changed since Orlando’s 5-0 loss to NYCFC on March 7. The Lions have clawed their way up the table while the Pigeons have only won once in their past 13 league games. NYCFC enters this match after a 1-1 draw with LAFC that included an equalizer by former Lion Andres Perea to give the team a valuable point amid the playoff race. Nicolas Fernandez Mercau, Luighi, and Benie Traore are all NYCFC players the Lions will need to keep in check, or else it could end up being another high-scoring affair in the City Beautiful.

Antoine Griezmann’s Impact on Orlando’s Offense

Orlando’s wait for Antoine Griezmann to join in the summer has proven to be well worth it, as he’s transformed Orlando’s attack into a force to be reckoned with just as the playoffs near. Although Griezmann wasn’t able to enjoy a fairytale ending with Atletico Madrid by lifting the Copa del Rey or Champions League trophies this year, he’s breathed life into an Orlando side that struggled mightily prior to his arrival. The 35-year-old has recorded 12 goals and seven assists in just 14 appearances this season. Not only has he excelled when it comes to getting the ball in the net, but he’s done well in terms of defensive metrics and intangibles as well.

U.S. Will Host Women’s Club World Cup

The inaugural FIFA Women’s Club World Cup will be held in the U.S. in January of 2028 with the host cities still to be determined. There will be 19 clubs taking part, with Gotham, Arsenal, Barcelona, and Club America having already qualified along with three other teams so far. This tournament is sandwiched between the 2027 Women’s World Cup in Brazil and the 2028 Summer Olympics in Los Angeles, so there’s plenty of exciting women’s soccer to look forward to in the coming years.

U.S. U-17 Women’s National Team Wins at World Cup

The United States U-17 Women’s National Team won 6-1 against Kenya in the group stage of the FIA U-17 Women’s World Cup in Morocco, clinching a spot in the round of 16. Maggie DiMaria scored four goals to bring her total to 10 across just two games. The U.S. will play its final group game on Sunday against China PR, which also won both of its games against Kenya and Samoa to secure a spot in the knockout stage. The winner of this group will get to avoid a match with Spain in the round of 16, so there’s still plenty to play for before the next round gets underway.

Free Kicks

  • The first leg of the Concacaf Nations League quarterfinal between the United States Men’s National Team and Haiti has been moved from Kingston to Miami. Haiti has had to play games outside of the country due to unrest and submitted a request to Concacaf to play in the country of its opponent.
  • American center back Naomi Girma is now dealing with a calf injury that may sideline her for a few weeks according to Chelsea Head Coach Sonia Bompastor. She missed out on the team’s recent friendlies against Spain and may be absent for the Concacaf W Championship quarterfinal against El Salvador next month too.
  • The United States Women’s Cerebral Palsy National Team beat Ireland 15-0 to advance to the IFCPF Women’s World Cup final, which takes place today against Australia. Annie Wickett scored five goals with four other players scoring braces.
  • The San Diego Wave signed defender Mimi Van Zanten to a contract extension through the 2029 season. She’s made 27 appearances for San Diego during her rookie season, helping the club keep pace in the NWSL Shield race.
  • After being stretchered off the field due to a head injury in the U.S. Open Cup final, St. Louis City goalkeeper Roman Burki is alert and in good spirits, according to the club.

That’s all I have for you this time around. I hope you all have a fantastic Friday and rest of your weekend!

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Orlando City

Orlando’s October Outburst Originated Months Ago

Orlando City’s October offensive surge may look like a recent development, but the Lions have been scoring at an impressive rate for months.

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Image of Antoine Griezmann and Martin Ojeda celebrating a goal during Orlando City's 2-1 friendly win at FC Dallas.
Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Justin Glatt

We do not watch nearly enough Sesame Street in my house, but ever since the summer we say that A is for Antoine when the show discusses the alphabet. Sadly, this replaced A is for Andrew, which is my name, because Antoine Griezmann is more popular than me in my house. I cannot say that I am surprised, but I can say that it hurts just a little bit. More than a little bit.

For the past few years, O has been for Ojeda, as in Martín Ojeda, the man who is now Orlando City’s all-time leading goal scorer. This October, however, O is for offense, as the Lions have scored 10 goals during their three October matches, and that tally leads all of MLS this month. Orlando City’s offense has actually been on point for several months now, as you can see from the chart below (MLS games only):

MonthGoals ScoredGames PlayedGoals per Game
February111.0
March441.0
April751.4
May1152.2
July*522.5
August951.8
September1152.2
October1033.3
Total58301.9
  • *There were no games in June due to the FIFA Men’s World Cup

Griezmann arrived for the July games, but even before that, the offense had started to heat up in May. Although May 1 is an arbitrary date, if we use it as a benchmark it allows us to capture two-thirds of Orlando City’s season, as the first 10 games happened before May and the team has now played 30 in total. Since May, the Lions rank fourth in MLS in goals scored with 46, sitting behind only Miami (54), Philadelphia (52), and St. Louis (47).

In a matter of perfect symmetry, the Lions also rank fourth in goals allowed, and by rank fourth I most certainly do not mean they are among the best defensive teams in the league. Orlando City has allowed 41 goals in the last 20 games, which is an average of more than two goals allowed per game but is also fewer than the 46 the team has scored. I know you already did the math in your head, but 46 – 41 = 5, and that +5 goal differential since May puts the Lions at eighth overall in MLS.

Perhaps we are now in the Inception timeline, because in yet another matter of symmetry Orlando City has also earned the eighth-most points (34) since May 1. This is yet another reminder of how poor of a start the club had this season, with seven losses in those first 10 games.

Since then, however, the 2026 team has performed like the teams of the past few years, but even with a top 10 performance for two-thirds of the season, it has not been able to climb above seventh in the Eastern Conference. This is because four of the five best teams since May are in the same conference, and the ninth and 10th hottest teams, right behind Orlando City, are also in the East. For those of you counting, hopefully in a voice like The Count’s (“Ah, ah,ah!”), that makes seven of the top 10 Eastern teams, so it is no wonder that the Lions are still in a precarious playoff position.

Saturday’s game against New York City FC is, on paper, the easiest of the remaining four games, but then again, the Pigeons did dirty pigeon things all over the Lions in the first matchup, winning that game 5-0. A repeat performance would wipe away the +5 goal differential Orlando has since May, but in addition to the fact that this game will be played on an actual soccer field, there is another pretty major difference between the early season Lions and the current Lions: Griezmann.

The French superstar is up to 12 goals scored and six primary assists (to go with one secondary assist in only 14 MLS games, which is wild), and he and Ojeda make up one of only seven tandems in the league in which both players have at least 12 goals each (Ojeda has 15). Only three tandems have at least 13 goals each (Miami’s Lionel Messi and Luis Suárez, Cincinnati’s Kévin Denkey and Evander, and Nashville’s Sam Surridge and Hany Mukhtar), and with another goal from Griezmann, the two Lions would become the second pair in club history to each score at least 13 goals in a season, joining Facundo Torres and Duncan McGuire in 2023.

Marco Pašalić scored in the most recent game, and both Iván Angulo and Justin Ellis have recorded double-digit goal contributions, so let’s hope the team’s recent offensive onslaught continues, because with all the injuries on the back line and some difficult opponents coming up on the schedule, the Lions will likely need to put up multiple goals if they are going to get results and qualify for the playoffs for the seventh consecutive season.

And considering how poor the start to the season was, if they can orchestrate that it would be outstanding. Let’s gooooooooo.

Vamos Orlando!

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