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Beyond the Stat Sheet: Maxime Crépeau’s Strong Start In Orlando

Maxime Crépeau’s season thus far and how he compares to the other MLS goalkeepers.

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Image of Maxime Crepeau making a save against the New York Red Bulls.
Dan MacDonald, The Mane Land

Despite the best attempts by math teachers across the world, including me in the first decade of this century, math is the subject that is most often cited as the one that people disliked the most when they were in school. While I do not enjoy this, I understand it, because math is difficult and only brilliant and sophisticated people like me could ever grasp such complex topics as addition and division.

I may have ever so slightly exaggerated my intelligence level in the previous sentence.

Math is difficult, however, especially because it often requires context in order to be fully understood, and in many cases, the context is as clear as pondwater. This is magnified when it comes to statistics, and why statisticians prefer to talk about confidence levels and ranges instead of providing a specific answer. Sports are chock full of statistics, but without painstaking work to evaluate the context of how those numbers happened, it is hard to truly feel like any particular statistic is a true differentiator among players or teams.

For example, Orlando City has allowed the most goals this season, “leading” the league in both the actual number of goals allowed and also in goals allowed per 90 minutes. There is no dispute about this, but there is also no context with those numbers as to why. The eye test says that the defense has not always looked cohesive on the field, and several starters have missed time due to injuries. The starting lineup in the last two games included Zakaria Taifi as the left back, and he does not have a lot of experience playing this position at the MLS level, or any level, yet.

According to playoffstatus.com the Lions have also played the seventh-hardest schedule in the league, which certainly has not helped with keeping the ball out of the back of the net. At all. Because, as math clearly states, 2.45 goals allowed per 90 minutes = yikes.

On our site and on our PawedCasts we have focused a lot on the back line and its struggles, but it is Maxime Crépeau who is usually the one actually taking the ball out of the net. As with every goal allowed, there is a share of the blame pie that goes to each player, but in general, the heaviest responsibility is borne by the defenders and goalkeeper, so let’s take a look at the Canadian netminder’s performance thus far this season.

The analysts at American Soccer Analysis (ASA) have a goals added model specific to goalkeepers, built on top of six different metrics. At this point in the season, 37 goalkeepers have played at least 500 minutes, and Crépeau’s rank in each category and the overall rankings is shown in the table below.

MetricRank in MLS – 2026
Claiming10
Fielding7
Handling36
Passing34
Shotstopping25
Sweeping10
Overall Goals Added (g+)25

The models are proprietary, and I am confident that they were designed to try to take as much into account as possible, but as much as it pains me to say as a math person, I think goalkeeping data is very noisy and is much more directional than precise. There are so many dependencies with every cross and shot that is played into the box, and models can try to account for them all but they are never able to do so.

As a case in point, FotMob also its own proprietary goalkeeper metrics, with its leading metric being goals prevented. What this boils down to is the number of actual goals allowed as compared to the amount of expected goals (xG) allowed, which is in and of itself a measure that sounds precise but has its own inherent flaws. Every shot from a particular grid on the field is assigned the same expected goal percentage, no matter the shooter, whether they were using their preferred foot, if they were shooting it with a clean look at goal or under duress, if the shot was true or was deflected, and a host of other aspects that could come into play on a shot.

Over thousands of shots the percentages are likely very close to the xG, but most goalkeepers have faced between 80-120 shots on target this season (Crépeau ranks second, at 135), and with that small of a sample there will be some major variation in the xG calculations. Crépeau ranks 25th in g+ from ASA but 12th in goals prevented on FotMob, so clearly there is something significantly different in its models as it relates to the shots he has faced. Matt Turner, however, is top on both metrics, but take a look at the shot charts from Turner and Crépeau from FotMob below (there is one goal on each side circled in red; sadly I could not remove that from the screenshot), and some of why that is can be explained visually.

Graphic showing shots faced by Crepeau and Turner.

Aside from Clark Kent, very few people on Earth can fly (is Clark Kent really a person, though? A question for another site). Turner has not seen any shots on target in the upper right-hand corner of his net thus far this season, whereas Orlando City’s opponents have put a bunch of shots there, in an extremely difficult location for Crépeau to save them. Neither goalkeeper has any control over that, and with such small samples of shots on target, the prevalence of shots to extremely difficult locations against Crépeau compared to Turner plays a large role in the differences in their rankings.

To be fair to Turner, he is an excellent goalkeeper. These illustrations are more about the effects on Crépeau’s rankings than to take away from Turner’s.

Another measure of goalkeeper statistics is save percentages by shots taken from inside and outside the box, which is tracked by Sofascore. This is a truly objective measure — no models or formulas, just the percentage of saves by the location of the shot. The chart below shows the differences in save percentages by each goalkeeper against the league average during the past two seasons (a value in the green quadrant would show a goalkeeper that saved a higher percentage of shots inside the box (x-axis) and outside the box (y-axis) than the league averages of 61% for inside the box and 83% for outside the box).

Scatterplot showing all goalkeepers' save percentages against the league average over the last two seasons, both inside and outside the box.

Both of Orlando City’s starters during the last two seasons were subpar against shots from long range (Crépeau is 10% below average, Gallese was 7% below), but El Pulpo was slightly better than average on shots from inside the box and Crépeau was nearly exactly dead on with the two-season average.

Hang on, though, because just when you thought this was objective, it kind of also is not. Outside the box means anywhere outside of the lines, and Orlando City has allowed nine shots from just on the other side of the line, including six from right in the semicircle at the top of the box. That is an incredibly dangerous location, but it counts as outside the box just the same as a 30-yard long-range attempt, a.k.a., the Luis Muriel Not-so-special.

Crépeau has allowed 10 goals on 38 shots from outside the box, but half of those goals are from 18-20 yards away and in the middle of the field, which is a more dangerous location than many locations inside the box.

Additionally, of those 10 outside -the-box goals only one has happened since the World Cup break. The Canadian was excellent during the World Cup and has been as well for the Lions since the season resumed. Perhaps playing for his country sparked this recent run of strong play, or perhaps he just needed time to settle in with his new team. Either way, Crépeau and Orlando City are only allowing 1.43 goals per game since the season resumed, a massive improvement compared to the 2.93 from the opening months.

It would have been nice if the team had only given up two instead of three at Minnesota, but then again, if not for some incredible plays by Crépeau in the first half, the Lions might have given up four or five, so only allowing three was actually somewhat positive.

And that is always the conundrum for goalkeepers. Giving up three goals was bad! Wait, but it probably should have been worse, so giving up three was good! The analytical models do not take into account that Robin Jansson passed a ball straight to Minnesota to give the Loons a quick counterattack against minimal defenders, or that Taifi was too far inside and double teaming a Loon instead of playing out on the left side where he should have been, allowing a wide-open attack in his area.

The statistics say three goals allowed against Minnesota, with precise physical locations of the shots and associated xG values, but as the ever-brilliant Mark Twain once said, “there are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.”

The numbers tell some of the story of Crépeau’s performance against Minnesota and of his season so far, but having watched every minute of every game this season, I think the truth of the matter is that he has outperformed expectations and has been an excellent replacement after the departure of club legend Gallese.

And he has done it with only two arms, a statistically significant difference in arms than the eight of El Pulpo. That might be the only goalkeeping statistic that everyone agrees about from this article.

Vamos Orlando!

Opinion

Orlando City’s Final Playoff Push Filled with Challenges

The Lions will need to contend with a busy schedule, tricky opponents, and injury concerns while pushing to secure a playoff spot.

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Image of Martin Perelman celebrating his first MLS win as coach.
Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

Orlando City has seven games remaining in the 2026 MLS season, which means that crunch time is officially upon us. The Lions currently sit seventh in the Eastern Conference with 34 points but are only one point ahead of FC Cincinnati in 10th place. As a result, OCSC’s final matches of the season are of massive importance, but the men in purple will need to deal with a number of different hurdles if they want to keep the longest active postseason streak in the league alive for another year.

Fixture Congestion

As has been the case with much of a season that went on a two-month break for the 2026 World Cup, Orlando City is staring down the barrel of another busy month. Of the Lions’ seven remaining matches, six will take place in a jam-packed 21-day stretch during the month of October, before Decision Day against the New England Revolution on Nov. 7. Things get started Saturday at home against the Columbus Crew, and then OCSC plays away against Toronto on Wednesday, home against D.C. United on Saturday, Oct. 17, home against New York City FC on Saturday, Oct. 24, before finishing the month with back-to-back away games against the Chicago Fire on Oct. 28, and against Charlotte FC on Halloween. While there’s an even split of home and away matches, it’s still an absolutely hellish stretch.

Fortunately, most teams are in the same boat, and there’s a week in between the home matches against D.C. and NYCFC that may help a little, but it’s still a lot of games in a short amount of time. That won’t be anything new to this team after how busy August and September were, but that doesn’t mean it’ll be any easier to deal with.

Tricky Opponents

Let’s talk more about the games themselves, specifically the teams Orlando will be up against, because it’s an interesting mix. I wouldn’t classify the set of teams that the Lions will face down the stretch as either easy or difficult. Rather, it’s a tricky bunch that should both provide some good opportunities to pick up points, while also throwing up some pretty unappetizing matchups. First up is the Crew. The bad news is that they knocked Orlando out of the U.S. Open Cup in fairly convincing fashion, but on the flip side, the game is at home and the team will be well-rested — two conditions that usually lend themselves to OCSC playing fairly well. Hitting the road to Toronto on short rest feels like a recipe for disaster, but the Reds haven’t been playing great after losing 3-0 to Orlando back in September. Then it’s another game on short rest, but it comes against a D.C. side sitting in 11th and is winless in its last three.

After that, there’s a week off before welcoming an NYCFC team that has been in the midst of a free fall down the table, and then road trips to two strong teams in Chicago and Charlotte, both of which are on short rest. The team gets a week to prepare before facing another strong side on Decision Day in the Revs.

On paper, the games against Columbus, D.C., and NYCFC feel winnable. While Orlando lost to the latter two teams on the road earlier in the year, I think this version of Orlando is better than what it was in March and April when it lost to those teams, and the Lions have been infinitely better at home than on the road.

Conversely, I’ll be thanking my lucky stars if any points are picked up from back-to-back road trips to Chicago and Charlotte on short rest, while playing the Revs on Decision Day feels like a tough task even at home.

The backdrop of all this is the fact that the six teams immediately below Orlando in the table are all within at least five points of it. Plus, the Lions play four of those six teams in NYCFC, D.C., Columbus, and Toronto. At this point in the season, every game matters, but each of those contests takes on added importance because of how much of an impact they can have on the table. Win, and you put distance between yourself and one of the teams below you. Lose, and that team reels you in a little bit more if not outright leapfrogging you altogether.


Health and Availability

While Orlando’s list of unavailable players doesn’t look nearly as bad as it has at times this season, there are still some big absences that the team will have to contend with.

For one thing, barring a run all the way to the MLS Cup final, Tyrese Spicer’s season is over after he had surgery to repair a Jones fracture in his right foot. For those of you keeping score at home, that is now the third Jones fracture suffered by an Orlando City player this season, after Robin Jansson had surgery to repair one before the season started, and Braian Ojeda went under the knife to fix one back on Aug. 6. While the attacking positions aren’t looking as thin as they once were now that Martin Ojeda is fit and Marco Pasalic is staying put, Spicer was in the midst of an excellent season and had six goals and two assists in just 869 league minutes. Not having his spark off the bench is a big miss, and it also provides less options when it comes to rotation.

Then there’s the cases of Griffin Dorsey, and more recently, Justin Ellis. Let’s start with Dorsey, who hasn’t played since going off at halftime of the 3-2 win over Atlanta United due to a back issue, and while he carried a questionable designation for Orlando’s most recent game against the Philadelphia Union, he ultimately did not play. Presumably, two extra weeks of recovery will see him ready to go this weekend, but even if he does make a much-needed return to the field, Orlando needs to be careful with managing him.

Even after missing four games through injury, Dorsey has still played the fifth-most league minutes on the team behind Ivan Angulo, Maxime Crepeau, David Brekalo, and Robin Jansson — in that order. Angulo is the type of physical specimen that should be studied in a lab, while Crepeau, Brekalo, and Jansson aren’t asked to do nearly as much running as Dorsey is when he’s healthy. The Lions’ defense hasn’t been great all season, but it was mostly doing enough to keep the team in games before the right back went onto the shelf. Without him, it’s given up 10 goals in four games across all competitions and has won just one of those contests. I understand the temptation to keep Dorsey on the field as much as possible, given what he adds both offensively and defensively, but Martin Perelman needs to use him in tandem with Zakaria Taifi or risk losing the defender for another extended period of time when Orlando can least afford it.

That brings us to Justin Ellis. If you watched the United States Men’s National Team take down Canada 1-0 on Tuesday, then you probably got an almighty scare when Ellis went down after a physical play during the first half and had to leave the field after receiving treatment. He eventually returned in style and scored the game’s only goal, but he was visibly hobbled in the minutes after he came back on, and left the stadium at halftime to have an MRI done.

While we haven’t heard any updates since then and no news is presumably good news, caution may be needed when it comes to Saturday’s match against the Crew in order to prevent the injury turning into a more long-term issue.

Outside of Spicer, Braian Ojeda, and any lingering issues for Dorsey and Ellis, the team should have a clean bill of health to begin the final run-in, so that’s good news.


At the end of the day, the home stretch of this season is not going to be easy. The Lions will need to contend with fixture congestion, games against tricky opponents that have huge implications in the standings, and the ever-present injury and availability challenges. The Eastern Conference table has razor thin margins at the moment, and there’s very little room for error. We’re about to learn a lot about what this team is really made of over the course of the next seven games, for better or worse. Here’s hoping we like what we see. Vamos Orlando!

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Lion Links

Lion Links: 10/9/26

Daryl Dike’s soccer journey, Orlando City B signs Landon Okonski and Matthew Belgodere, analyzing Spain before USWNT match, and more.

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Image of Matthew Belgodere of OCB firing a shot against Philadelphia Union II.
Image courtesy of Orlando City B / Justin Glatt

Happy Friday, Mane Landers! It’s been a bit of a hectic week for me, but I’m looking forward to a weekend filled with soccer. Both Orlando City and the United States Women’s National Team are in action on Saturday, so be sure to plan your day accordingly. Let’s jump right into today’s links from around the soccer world!

A Day in the Life of Daryl Dike

Orlando City forward Daryl Dike was the latest MLS player to be featured as part of the league’s “Off the Ball” video series that shows what life is like for them outside of soccer. Dike, who returned to Orlando this summer, spoke on how the facilities in MLS were better than many in England but that the level of play was vastly different. Dike also gave insight into the toll the multiple injuries he dealt with had on him while abroad, although he also detailed how that adversity helped him learn more about himself and what makes him happy apart from soccer. It’s great to see Dike out and about in Orlando doing things we all do, although his anime taste is a bit basic in my opinion.

Orlando City B Signs Pair of Academy Players

Orlando City academy players Landon Okonski and Matthew Belgodere were both signed to Orlando City B contracts as they progress through the club’s pathway for young players. Okonski made his professional debut with the Young Lions this year and started 16 games as part of OCB’s defense. Belgodere also made his professional debut this season, recording five goals and two assists across 25 appearances. The 16-year-old was also named MLS NEXT Pro Rising Star of the Week for his role in OCB’s 3-2 comeback win over Carolina Core FC after scoring his first OCB goal in style.

Analyzing Spain Ahead of USWNT Friendlies

The United States Women’s National Team will take on Spain in a pair of friendlies this month, starting with Saturday’s match at Audi Field in the nation’s capital. While Spain’s roster for these friendlies will be without notable players like Aitana Bonmati, Mariona Caldentey, and Esther Gonzalez, there are still plenty of stars who could give the U.S. trouble. Alexia Putellas is more than capable of creating chances and putting them away, while Claudia Pina and Edna Imade are other attackers the U.S. will have to find ways to stop. We may also get to see Orlando Pride defender Oihane, who is the only NWSL player called up by Spain for this window.

NWSL Transfer News Roundup

The NWSL roster freeze took place Thursday and various teams that aren’t the Orlando Pride made moves right before the deadline. The Chicago Stars sent $700,000 in intraleague transfer funds to Bay FC for forward Racheal Kundananji, who recorded 12 goals and 11 assists across 63 games for Bay FC. She’s not the only forward on the move, as the Washington Spirit traded Nigerian forward Gift Monday to Boston Legacy FC in exchange for $500,000 in intraleague transfer funds. The North Carolina Courage made a pair of trades as well, adding defender Ella Hase from Racing Louisville for $35,000 in intraleague transfer funds and transferring forward Olivia Wingate to Gotham FC for free.

Free Kicks

  • Barbra Banda and Zambia lost 2-1 to Uganda in the first leg of the series between the two nations in Africa’s Olympic qualifying tournament. Banda assisted on Zambia’s goal to open the scoring, connecting with former Pride player Prisca Chilufya.
  • Portland Thorns forward Sophia Wilson was suspended for an additional game for violent conduct after pulling the hair of Boston Legacy player Lais Araujo.
  • This year’s Best XI was announced for the MLS NEXT Pro, and there are unsurprisingly no OCB players listed.
  • The U.S. U-23 Women’s National Team will be without midfielder Jaedyn Shaw for its upcoming friendlies due to injury precautions.

That’s all I have for you this time around. I hope you all have a fantastic Friday and rest of your week!

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Orlando City

By the Numbers: Orlando’s Top Goal Contributors of 2026

Barbra Banda sits atop Orlando’s 2026 goal contribution leaderboard, but Justin Ellis and several other attackers are closing quickly as the season comes to a conclusion.

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Image of Exploria Stadium at night.
Image courtesy of Orlando City SC

October is here, and while in most recent years that meant Orlando City and the Pride working to lock in a good playoff seed and actual playoff games for Orlando City B (OCB), that is not the case this year.

OCB went ahead and dressed up as a pumpkin well in advance of Halloween, failing to make the playoffs after a strong early start to their season. The Pride need, I don’t know, just about everything to go their way (you can create scenarios at this link; it is possible but exceedingly unlikely) in order to make the playoffs, and Orlando City is in a tight battle to qualify, with playoffstatus.com giving it just a 34% chance of making it this year.

October could indeed live up to its scary billing if the Pride do not get their miracle and the Lions falter and drop below the line. Not since 2019 have all three Orlando teams missed their respective playoffs during the same year, and the Lions are realistically the City Beautiful’s only hope for postseason soccer.

I generally prefer optimism to pessimism, so with that in mind, I wanted to look at something more on the glass-half-full side this week, with that glass being half full of goals. Goalkeepers and defenders can have fun too, but their fun is often more like that of an actuary or accountant — clinical and black and white. Goals are expressive and explosive and full of color (in this case, a heavy helping of purple) and joy. I like thinking happy thoughts while I write.

The three Orlando teams have scored more than 150 goals this season across all competitions, and the chart below details the makeup of all three teams and where those goals came from, using data from fbref.com for Orlando City and the Pride and from the MLS NEXT Pro website for OCB:

TeamPlayers UsedGoal ScorersGoal Contributors*Leading Contributor
Orlando City331720Martín Ojeda – 15
Orlando City B371522Issah Haruna – 14
Orlando Pride261017Barbra Banda – 21
All Three Clubs833855

*Goal contributors are the players that scored or provided the primary assist on the goal

More than 80 players have appeared in at least one game for an Orlando team thus far, with 13 players appearing for both Orlando City and OCB. Seven players are goalkeepers, and if you remove them from the players used count, that leaves 76 field players, of which 54 (goalkeeper Juan Rojas had an assist for OCB) contributed to at least one goal (71%, not bad).

Barbra Banda, Martín Ojeda, and Issah Haruna are the leaders for their respective teams thus far. OCB’s season is over, so Haruna — and his seven goals and seven assists — is locked in as the leading contributor for OCB. Ojeda has been in the lead for nearly the entire season for Orlando City, but Antoine Griezmann started playing after the World Cup break and has been rapidly cooking up escar-goal contributions ever since. As for the Pride, it was Agatha Barbra all along, and as our Sean Rollins noted earlier this week, it has not even been close.

I mentioned earlier that 13 players have played for both men’s teams this season, and even though Ojeda leads the Lions and Haruna led the Young Lions, neither are the leading contributor on the men’s side of the club. In fact, neither are the leader or the player in second place, as it is Justin Ellis who sits in first place and Harvey Sarajian who trails him on the men’s side.

Both players have delivered goals for the senior Lions and Young Lions this season, and if you throw in the two goals from his recent stint with the U.S. Men’s National Team, Ellis has crested 20 goal contributions in 2026. Those do not count for the graph below, even though the first was in Inter.co Stadium and the second came from an assist from Alex Freeman, both of which feel very much like they should count as Orlando goal contributions. Alas, Freeman is “Forever A Lion” but not currently on the Lions, but the following 10 players are and coincidentally they are both the top 10 and only 10 with at least 10 goal contributions thus far this season:

PlayerGoal ContributionsGoal Contributions per 90 (GC/90)GC 90/Rank
Barbra Banda211.051
Justin Ellis190.805
Harvey Sarajian150.854
Martín Ojeda150.687
Issah Haruna140.668
Antoine Griezmann130.962
Gustavo Caraballo120.736
Tyrese Spicer120.933
Iván Angulo100.3218
Pedro Leão100.4412

Banda jumps out as the leader and the only Pride player in the top 10, Haley McCutcheon (a defensive midfielder!) is second on the team and 11th overall with eight goal contributions, and Jacquie Ovalle is third on the Pride and tied for 13th overall with six. The Pride have once again really been a one-woman band(a), as evidenced by how the low numbers are for their second- and third-leading goal contributors.

Back on the men’s side, Daryl Dike only has three goal contributions, so he is down at 23rd in those rankings, but his 0.58 goal contributions per 90 minutes has him ninth on the per-90 chart. Tiago, who may become a lot more important now that Tyrese Spicer is likely out for the season with a Jones fracture, is the other player not in the top 10 for actual goal contributions but in there per 90 minutes, as he sits 10th at 0.51.

It is not surprising that the two players with the highest pedigree rank in the top two on the per-90-minutes chart. Both Banda and Griezmann have been as advertised all season, and if both had been available all season, each team would likely be higher in the standings.

The Pride have three games remaining (though their next one is not until Oct. 18 due to an international window) and Orlando City has seven, so there is still ample time for movement on this top 10 chart. Perhaps McCutcheon goes McClutcheon and bags a few more braces, or Ovalle or Ally Lemos (fourth on the Pride, also as a defensive midfielder) go on a late heater and catch Pedro Leão. More likely, however, is that no other Pride player makes a leap and Banda just adds to her totals, and we see if Ellis, with four more games left to play than the Zambian, can catch her for the number one spot.

Ojeda has a chance to follow his 31 goal contribution season in 2025 with a 20+ season in 2026, and if any of those goal contributions come from goals, he will pass Facundo Torres and take sole possession as the club’s all-time leading goal scorer.

Orlando City’s season resumes Saturday against Columbus, and hopefully the Lions will return from the international break locked and loaded for the stretch run. Whether the goal contributions come from a top 10 performer or someone well off the list is irrelevant. All that matters is that the Lions can score at least one more than their opponents.

And if they can do that a few more times, that will contribute to extending their playoff run to a seventh consecutive year.

Vamos Orlando!


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