Orlando City
2016 Orlando City Season in Review: Where Were the Vital Points Dropped?

Let’s not sugarcoat it – missing the playoffs sucks. Watching other people’s favorite teams battle it out for a trophy while yours is playing golf, vacationing, or whatever. So, I get why there was so much gnashing of teeth on social media and in the comments section of this site after the loss to Montreal on Oct. 2 stuck a dagger in the Lions’ playoff chances.
Since all we’re left with is picking up the pieces and dissecting the 2016 season, we’ll be doing a number of postmortem pieces over the next few weeks. Today I thought I’d break down where Orlando City went particularly wrong in amassing enough points to make the 2016 MLS playoffs. Had the club but duplicated the 44 points from 2015, the Lions would have finished two points ahead of Philadelphia and we’d have had an additional game this week. But instead, the Lions ended the season on just 41 points. Let’s break down where dropped points really hurt the most by splitting the opponents into groups.
Orlando City by Conference
- Orlando City vs. the Eastern Conference: 8-7-9, 33 points
- Orlando City vs. the Western Conference: 1-4-5, 8 points
The Lions did OK against the East. At 1.375 points per game, this kind of production across the board would have had Orlando City in the middle of the table at about 47 points. That would have earned the Lions a home playoff game. The 1-4-5 record against the West is a big drop from last year’s mark of 5-3-2. Orlando City beat Portland, Sporting Kansas City, LA Galaxy, Houston Dynamo, and Colorado Rapids in 2015. In 2016, the team mustered only a win over Portland, albeit a fun and convincing one.
But East teams playing poorly against the Western Conference is not unique to Orlando City (Philadelphia was 1-6-3 vs. the West, for example). Four of the six Eastern Conference playoff teams had .500 or worse records against the Western Conference, so the answer probably lies elsewhere. By eliminating a poor cross-conference record, we can focus solely on the Eastern Conference.
Orlando City vs. Eastern Conference
- Orlando City vs. East Playoff Teams: 7-6-4, 25 points
- Orlando City vs. East Non-Playoff Teams: 1-1-5, 8 points
Now we’re getting somewhere. The Lions actually had a good record against Eastern Conference teams that made the playoffs. The club went 2-0-1 against New York City FC; 2-1-0 versus Montreal Impact; 1-1-1 against both Philadelphia Union and Toronto FC; 1-1-0 against D.C. United; and 0-2-1 against conference regular-season conference champion New York Red Bulls.
Meanwhile, the Lions managed only one win in seven matches against the East’s bottom feeders and drew five times against those teams. While Orlando City pulled in 1.47 points per game against the conference’s six best teams, the Lions mustered barely over a point per game against the other three clubs that missed the postseason. The lone win came at home against New England in Jason Kreis’ first game as head coach. That goes along with the infamous handball draw at home and another tie on the road against the Revs. Orlando failed to beat Columbus or Chicago, going 0-1-1 against the Crew and 0-0-2 against the Fire. Woof.
If Orlando City would simply have maintained the same points-per-game average against the worst teams in the East as it did against the best, that’s a jump of about four points and the Lions leapfrog New England and Philadelphia and finish level on points with the Impact.
This can be taken a bit further. The Lions went 1-0-3 against the four non-playoff teams in the Western Conference. That’s a total of 2-1-8 against the dregs of Major League Soccer. Eight times Orlando failed to score one goal more than the opponent to break a tie against the most meh competition the league had to offer.
In fairness, some of those draws were better than others. Rallying from two goals down on opening day was a satisfactory tie. Going to Vancouver on short rest and getting a result under an interim head coach was a good draw. Failing to find the net once against Houston at home was not. Allowing a goal at (beyond?) the death against San Jose at home was abysmal.
Just one more win among the group of Chicago, Columbus, New England, Houston, San Jose, and Vancouver would have pushed the Lions above the Union and into the postseason. The win over defending MLS champion Portland seemed a lot bigger in March when everyone expected the Timbers to make another run toward the MLS Cup. Now it seems like the kind of result Orlando City should have expected against teams below the line.
To make matters worse, of those dropped points against bad teams, five of the games were at Camping World Stadium: the draws against New England, San Jose, Houston, and Chicago, and the loss to Columbus. The Lions drew all four away games from that group: at Vancouver, New England, Columbus, and Chicago. Maybe drawing those road games is OK, but those dropped points at home were a killer.
Trending
Is Orlando City’s bad play against the bottom feeders a disturbing trend or was this year just particularly bad?
Looking back at 2015, the Lions were 3-2-3 for 12 points (1.5 ppg) in eight matches against Eastern Conference non-playoff teams (1-1-1 vs. NYCFC, 0-1-1 vs. Philadelphia, and 2-0-1 vs. Chicago). Further, Orlando was 2-0-2 for eight points (2 ppg) in four matches against Western Conference non-playoff teams a year ago (beating Houston and Colorado, and drawing vs. RSL, San Jose). That’s a total of 5-2-5 for 20 points (1.67 ppg) in matches against the league’s worst in the club’s inaugural year. That kind of production would certainly have helped the Lions get above the red line in 2016.
The club did perform better against Eastern Conference playoff teams this season, despite collecting fewer overall points through the 2016 MLS campaign. The Lions were just 4-9-3 for 15 points (0.94 ppg) against Eastern Conference teams that made the postseason in 2015. Toronto FC alone clobbered Orlando three times in those nine City losses.
To summarize, Orlando City got better against the Eastern Conference overall and especially against Eastern playoff teams from 2015 to 2016. However, the Lions also got substantially worse against non-playoff teams, dropping from to 1.5 points per game vs. Eastern Conference non-playoff teams in 2015 to 1.14 ppg in 2016, and from 1.67 ppg vs. all non-playoff teams in 2015 to 1.27 ppg in 2016.
The key to the lads in purple reaching the playoffs for the first time might possibly be as simple as beating the bad teams in 2017.
Orlando City
Orlando City Relies on Starters More Than Any Other MLS Team
An analysis of Óscar Pareja’s early lineup choices and substitution patterns and how that compares to the 2024 season.

Legendary swordsman Inigo Montoya, a man who is not lefthanded, once opened a conversation by asking the Dread Pirate Roberts if, by any chance, he had six fingers on his right hand. Nobody will need to prepare to die by the end of this column, but I will ask a similar question: I don’t mean to pry, but did you by any chance happen to realize that we are already more than one-sixth of the way through the MLS regular season? Six fingers, one-sixth of the season…close enough. Let’s go.
Time flies when you are having fun, and somehow Orlando City has already played 540 minutes of MLS soccer this season. I consider 500 minutes played to be a cutoff amount when looking at player and lineup performance, and with the conclusion of the most recent game in Los Angeles, the team has now surpassed that 500-minute threshold.
In looking at the opening 540 minutes, I was surprised to see how much continuity I found in the minutes played, considering how many injuries the Lions have had to work around during these first six games. In just the first six games, Orlando City has already had full games missed due to injury by César Araujo (1), David Brekalo (2), Robin Jansson (2), Duncan McGuire (3) and Nico Rodriguez (5). Brekalo and Pedro Gallese both missed a game for international duty as well. McGuire was not expected back during the first set of games, but all of those other players, with the possible exception of Rodriguez, were expected to contribute during the early part of the season.
These absences led to games where the substitutes list was full of players who will play big minutes for Orlando City B this year, but not players who Óscar Pareja was likely to turn to off the bench unless the game was out of hand or he was absolutely desperate. According to Opta’s tracking through the opening six games, Orlando City ranks last in MLS in the average minutes played by its substitutes, as the average amount of time per appearance for the players off the bench for the Lions is only 12 minutes. For context, 16 teams have an average amount of time per substitute appearance of 20 minutes or greater, and Inter Miami and Toronto are tied with a league-leading 27 minutes per substitute appearance.
The interesting thing about those two teams, Miami and Toronto, is that Miami leads the league in points per match with 2.6 and Toronto is second from the bottom with a scant 0.33 points per match. I think a lot of this data will even out over time, as right now there are several teams, including Miami, that are playing in multiple competitions and trying to keep players fresh for all of their matches.
When it comes to Orlando City, however, that is not the case, and thus far there has just been the standard one game per week on six consecutive Saturdays. The players are rested for each game. The issue has just been that Pareja has not had the depth and variety of players he thought he would have to bring off the bench to protect a lead or chase a deficit.
We often joke in articles or on The Mane Land PawedCast about how “Óscar gonna Óscar,” and once he finds a lineup he likes, he sticks with it. Even with all the injuries he has somehow managed to do this again this season, as you can see from the chart below. I started tracking lineup data last season, and even though the 2025 season is only six games old and there have been so many absences from key players this season, it was striking to see that the 11-man lineup that has played the most minutes together this season already outranks all but two lineups from the entire 2024 MLS season (including the five playoff games!):

Now, it is a little unfair to the one 2025 lineup on the above chart that it has such a negative goal differential per 90 minutes, because if it is only the 10 field players, with goalkeeper excluded, then that lineup has played 215 minutes together and has a +0.84 goal differential per 90 minutes. That group is +4 with Javier Otero in net in 74 minutes together, and removing the goalkeepers from the calculation turns that negative goal differential into a positive.
What that also tells us, however, is that when it comes to the 10 field players, Pareja has played the same unit in the field for 40% (215/540) of the team’s minutes already. Granted it is early in the season, but after six MLS games last season, the lineup that had played together the most had played a grand total of 74 minutes together (14% of all minutes). The top five most used lineups in last season’s opening six MLS games combined to play 302 minutes, or 56% of all minutes, and in 2025 it is 402 minutes, or 80%. My math, and everyone else’s math, says that is a much higher percentage and indicates that the team is focused on continuity early.
That continuity thus far this season has paid dividends, with the Lions earning 10 points from the first six games, twice as nice as last season’s five points after the first six games. Last year, the team was balancing midweek Concacaf Champions Cup games in addition to injuries and an international break during the opening weeks of the MLS season, so there were some good reasons for the lineup rotation and the slow start. This year’s squad will have to navigate two upcoming cup tournaments in the coming months, and so we likely will see a lot of new lineup configurations or more rotation once the U.S. Open Cup starts in May and then again when Leagues Cup starts in July.
Thus far though, Pareja has been able to stick with his starters deep into matches, and has only given playing time to 20 players, which is tied for third fewest across all of MLS. Fan bases often clamor for the coach to “play the kids,” but while Pareja has had young and inexperienced players on the senior roster for every game, he really has only given significant minutes to Alex Freeman from the group of players that could be referred to as “the kids.” Gustavo Caraballo has played nine minutes, which is incredible for a 16-year-old (15-year-old Cavan Sullivan of Philadelphia is the only player younger than Caraballo to have played this season, and he has also played only nine minutes), and new signing Nico Rodriguez (20 years old) has played 11 minutes, but the next three youngest players to play are all at least 22 and were with the senior club last season (Otero and Ramiro Enrique) or came to the club after four seasons of college soccer (23-year-old, but nearly 24-year-old, Joran Gerbet).
The team’s record thus far shows that Pareja has been right to limit the minutes to the small group of players he trusts, and with one game per week for the next six weeks it will be interesting to see if the early trend of starters playing long minutes and only a few players getting all the minutes off the bench continues. The next match is on the road against Philadelphia, which so rudely came into Orlando and defeated the Lions 4-2 in the season opener, and my expectation is that while we likely will not see any players make their season debut in this game, I do think we will see a different starting lineup than the season opener and probably a different one than the game last weekend against the Galaxy.
No matter who the Lions go with, I am sure they will want to avenge the season-opening loss and bring three points back home to Orlando.
As we wish.
Vamos Orlando!
Orlando City
Orlando City at Philadelphia Union: Three Keys to Victory
What do the Lions need to do to earn all three points on the road against Philly?

Orlando City is on the road yet again, this time heading to Pennsylvania to take on the Philadelphia Union at Subaru Park Saturday night. The Lions will look to get a second road win in a row after the smash-and-grab victory against the LA Galaxy. Things don’t get any easier with the Union sitting in second place in the Eastern Conference, but a win would catapult Orlando City above Philadelphia in the standings. Here’s what Orlando City needs to do to earn all three points against the Philadelphia Union.
Tie up Tai
Tai Baribo leads the way-too-early-to-call Golden Boot race with six goals in five matches. The Union striker has taken 13 shots, putting eight on target and the aforementioned six in the back of the net. He scored a brace in the season opener against Orlando to bag a third of those goals. It’s a pretty easy call to say stopping the league leader in goals is an important part of shutting down the Philadelphia attack.
It will be up to Cesar Araujo and whichever center back pairing we get to shut Baribo down. Of course, he’s not the only one the Lions need to worry about since the Union also have striker Mikael Uhre, and midfielders Daniel Gazdag and Jovan Lukic providing goals and assists. The point is that Philadelphia is second only to the Lions in offensive production with 13 goals compared to Orlando City’s 15 goals.
Formation Change
In the last match against the LA Galaxy, the Lions struggled to get things going with Luis Muriel up top, Ojeda at the No. 10 spot and Ivan Angulo on the left. Once Duncan McGuire came on, Muriel shifted back, Ojeda went wide, and Angulo subbed off. That really opened up the attack and allowed the Lions to get the two goals needed to secure the victory.
Perhaps Oscar Pareja could start things off like that against Philadelphia. Angulo hasn’t been great the last few matches, and perhaps some time on the bench will get his head straight. McGuire is still early in his return from injury, but Ramiro Enrique can start up top with Big Dunc coming in later as he has the last few matches. I think making this change could help Orlando City get an early goal on the road.
Vengeance is Thine
When the two teams met on opening day, the Union dropped four goals on Orlando City in Inter&Co Stadium. You would think it a completely dominating performance, but the Lions actually had more shots, more shots on target, and more possession than the Union. Philadelphia simply put each of its four shots on target past Pedro Gallese. That type of luck is unlikely to happen again.
Since that time, the Orlando City defense has stiffened — at least a little bit — and the team has been more difficult to break down. I’m not saying the defense is as stalwart as last season, but it has improved. Orlando City needs to use that four-goal drubbing at the hands of the Union to galvanize the defense to enact revenge with a multi-goal victory of its own.
That is what I will be looking for Saturday night. Let me know your thoughts in the comments below. Vamos Orlando!
Lion Links
Lion Links: 4/3/25
Martin Ojeda in the MLS MVP mix early, Orlando Pride players won’t play for Zambia this window, Tierna Davidson out for the NWSL season, and more.

How’s it going, Mane Landers? I hope this week has been going well for you as we gear up for a busy Saturday filled to the brim with soccer to enjoy. Despite my blender’s protests, I’ve finally figured out how to make frozen coconut mojitos and plan on having those get me through the rest of the week. Before we dive into today’s links, let’s all wish a happy 28th birthday to Orlando City legend Rodrigo Schlegel!
Martin Ojeda’s MVP Credentials
Orlando City’s Martin Ojeda placed second in Sacha Kljestan’s MLS MVP power rankings this week. With four goals and three assists so far this season, Ojeda leads the league in goal contributions and is a major reason why the Lions have scored a league-high 15 goals. It’s great to see the 26-year-old take the reins of the offense after Facundo Torres’ departure. Inter Miami’s Luis Suarez tops Kljestan’s rankings, despite only having a goal in five games this season. Tai Baribo, Evander, and Lionel Messi round out the top five in what could be an interesting MVP race this year.
Pride Players Won’t Join Zambia For International Duty
Zambia will be without four NWSL players when it takes part in the Yongchuan International Tournament in China this month. Along with Bay FC forward Rachael Kundananji, Orlando Pride trio Barbra Banda, Grace Chanda, and Prisca Chilufya were withdrawn from international duty, with the Football Association of Zambia stating it was due to additional travel measures by the current U.S. administration. FAZ General Secretary Reuben Kamanga expects the quartet to be available for future matches and both Banda and Kundananji played in friendlies in Zambia in February. Restrictions like this may limit the appeal of the NWSL to foreign players in the future.
Fan Banned For Hateful Language Towards Banda
NJ/NY Gotham FC announced that the fan who directed hateful language towards Banda has been banned following an investigation that included interviewing witnesses and reviewing security footage. The incident took place at the Pride’s match against Gotham on March 23 at Sports Illustrated Stadium. The fan was found to be in violation of the NWSL Code of Conduct and their season ticket was revoked as well. Gotham also encouraged fans to report inappropriate behavior through the team’s encrypted text message service to inform the stadium’s incident management team.
USWNT Defender Tierna Davidson Out for the NWSL Season
American center back Tierna Davidson will miss the remainder of the 2025 NWSL season after tearing the ACL in her left knee in the club’s draw against the Houston Dash. It’s tough news for her, Gotham, and the United States Women’s National Team, as she captains the NWSL club and featured heavily in the Olympics last year. Davidson sustained an ACL injury in her right knee back in 2022, which contributed to her missing out on the 2023 World Cup. Gisele Thompson replaced Davidson for the USWNT’s upcoming friendlies with Brazil, and Pride defender Emily Sams will likely receive more playing time as the team prepares for the 2027 World Cup.
Free Kicks
- Orlando City received $100,000 in General Allocation Money in exchange for former academy goalkeeper Zack Campagnolo’s Homegrown Player rights. The Lions will receive another $100,000 in GAM if conditions are met, and they retain a sell-on percentage if Campagnolo is transferred.
- San Diego FC added Milan Iloski on loan from FC Nordsjaelland in Denmark through July of this year. Iloski is a San Diego native and won the USL Golden Boot for Orange County SC in 2022.
- New England Revolution midfielder Carles Gil won MLS Goal of the Matchday for his free kick against the New York Red Bulls.
- El Farolito SC, which is named after a burrito chain and bar local to San Francisco, has reached the third round of the U.S. Open Cup for the second straight year. The National Premier Soccer League side took down Monterey Bay FC to reach this point of the tournament.
- Barcelona beat Atletico Madrid 1-0 to book its ticket to the Copa del Rey final, where it will face rival Real Madrid on April 26.
That’s all I have for you this time around. I hope you all have a terrific Thursday and rest of your week!
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