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Orlando City vs. New York City FC: Final Score 2-1 as Lions Blow Second-Half Lead

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2 years ago

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If Orlando City is going to clinch a spot in the MLS Cup playoffs in 2022, it’s going to have to wait. The Lions (13-13-6, 45 points) coughed up a 1-0 second-half lead and lost 2-1 to New York City FC (15-11-7, 52 points) at Red Bull Arena in Harrison, NJ. It was NYCFC’s first win at the venue in three “home” tries this year.

Alex Callens and Talles Magno erased the lead provided by Facundo Torres’ strike to lift the defending champions. The loss sinks a sharp dagger into Orlando’s chance to play a home postseason game (but doesn’t mathematically eliminate the possibility), clinches a home playoff match for the team with the worst home in MLS, and makes the final two games for the Lions more nervy than they needed to be.

“A very tight game for both teams who understand the situation and the implication of the results,” Orlando City Head Coach Oscar Pareja said after the match. “I thought it was very (hard) fought. We were all working and trying to get the result. I thought we had the initiative on not just opening the scoring but just trying to keep up on the ambition to win the three points. At the point where we get unorganized on a couple plays where they tie the game and score the second one, we have a couple actions to tidy it up. And we couldn’t finish, but I thought the effort from the players was very good.”

Pareja’s lineup was nearly a fully first-choice group, with the exception of center back Robin Jansson (lower leg) still out despite two more weeks of rest and being listed as questionable. Goalkeeper Pedro Gallese played behind a back line of Joao Moutinho, Rodrigo Schlegel, Antonio Carlos, and Ruan. Cesar Araujo returned to the lineup in central midfield with Junior Urso behind an attacking midfield line of Ivan Angulo, Mauricio Pereyra, and Torres, with Ercan Kara up top.

The Lions got on the front foot first in the match with Pereyra getting a shot off in the third minute but he took too long to let the ball to settle first and Callens blocked his effort. Ruan came close to opening the scoring in the seventh minute off a long throw by Moutinho. The ball was cleared to Ruan at the top of the box and the fullback took his shot on the volley but it deflected wide off Callens, who made another block.

Schlegel did all he could to get onto the ensuing corner cross but could not put any power on his shot or place it where he wanted to as it bounced meekly wide.

The first NYCFC chance came in the 10th minute on a quick attack with Magno firing his shot just wide of the left post.

Two minutes later, the hosts thought they’d opened the scoring after a Ruan turnover started the counter. The ball was crossed from the left to Tayvon Gray on the right and his header ended up in the net but the flag went up immediately for Santiago Rodriguez, who either just got a touch on it or was judged to have been interfering by being in the goalkeeper’s vision. Video review confirmed the call on the pitch, but it was a close call.

Urso appeared to have a chance in the 21st minute on a good cross from Ruan but he smashed his shot right at Sean Johnson. The poor finish didn’t matter because Ruan was offside in the buildup.

Magno headed over off a good cross from Kevin O’Toole in the 24th minute on another good chance for New York City.

Torres tried to put Urso in behind in transition in the 29th minute with a good pass but the Brazilian missed the ball on his attempted first touch and by the time he caught back up to it, Johnson had come off his line to grab it.

The best buildup that led to a scoring chance in the half for either side came in first-half stoppage time. Carlos won the ball back with a good tackle in the middle of the pitch and the ball ended up with Torres, who played to Pereyra in the middle and then made a run. The captain sent a great through ball to Kara, who touched it on for Torres to run onto. The Uruguayan took a shot with his weaker right foot but a sliding Maxime Chanot got a piece of it to knock it into the outside netting.

The Lions couldn’t do anything with the ensuing corner kick or a long throw by Moutinho and the half ended scoreless.

New York City FC held the lead in possession (56.6%-43.4%) and passing accuracy (86.8%-80.8%), while Orlando had more shots (5-2) and corners (6-1). Neither side put a shot on target in a cagey first 45 minutes.

The Lions wasted no time jumping on top after the break. Kara got his head to a long throw-in by Araujo and flicked it into traffic in the box. Torres anticipated where the ball would land, got there first, and swept it into the back of the net in the 47th minute. It was Torres’ eighth goal and 17th goal contribution of his first MLS season and Kara’s third assist and 13th goal contribution.

“It’s definitely one of our set plays that we work on,” Torres said of the buildup to the goal. “Pretty much before every game with Josema (Bazan). We worked on it two days before the game. Thankfully, it worked out in our favor to where we were able to get a goal and a little bit of luck.”

NYCFC immediately went into hyperdrive, playing as quickly as possible and even getting frustrated when Orlando didn’t restart the game quickly enough. Gabriel Pereira went for glory from outside the box in the 49th minute and hit his shot pretty well, but it fizzed over the bar.

Urso tried from a similar distance a minute later but it was nowhere near the target. Kara came close to doubling the lead in the 60th minute when he took a pass from Pereyra in traffic, quickly turned his body, and fired a shot. It missed the net but not by much.

Substitute Keaton Parks smashed a shot from distance after a corner kick was cleared in the 61st minute and the ball dipped and bounced just in front of Gallese, who could only fight it off rather than catch it. Callens got to the rebound first but had to fire while turning and chipped his shot over the bar from a tight angle.

In the 64th minute, Gallese made his best save, coming out and blocking a shot by Rodriguez, who got in behind with a well-timed run. Schlegel did well to head the rebound out of harm’s way on a contested ball in the air. But two minutes later, the hosts equalized anyway.

Orlando City cleared the corner kick following Schlegel’s header off the Gallese save but NYCFC maintained possession outside the area. The Pigeons worked the ball across the top of the box and it took multiple bounces to stay in the area. Angulo tried to block it but Parks faked his shot and it got through him, then Carlos went for a clearance and missed it. Ultimately, it squirted to Magno on the left, who crossed in from the left past Gallese’s sliding attempt to block it. It fell in the six to Callens, who was left unmarked due to Carlos being too slow to recover after trying to clear. Callens was all alone in front and tapped it in for his third goal in as many games in all competitions, tying the game at 1-1 in the 66th minute.

The Lions weren’t content with the 1-1 scoreline and continued to press for a win. Urso had a shot blocked at the top of the area in the 70th minute and a beautiful curling cross was just out of substitute Tesho Akindele’s reach moments later on a run that got him in behind.

The game could have changed in the 79th minute. Torres got forward in transition and his shot was blocked by Chanot. Torres shouted for handball but it wasn’t off Chanot’s hand and the play continued. On an ensuing ball into the area, there was another shout for handball as it appeared Parks may have handled it but there was again no call made and when the ball went out for a goal kick at the other end, there didn’t seem to be a stop for a review. The home broadcast feed never reviewed the second play so I couldn’t say if it should have been a penalty but Pareja was adamant about it after the match, calling it a “clear handball” that wasn’t given.

“Obviously disappointed about the call,” Pareja said. “It was the thing that just kept us down right now. Not even a (VAR) check and that’s what frustrated us the most, but I don’t want to keep going on this. You saw it. Everybody saw it. It’s clear.”

A road point would still have helped Orlando City’s cause but that evaporated in the 81st minute. The Lions got caught too far forward in defense and New York City made them pay for it. Moutinho was high on the pitch helping to press but then the ball sprung in behind him to start the break. Schlegel tried to cut the transition chance off before it started but the ball got through him and Magno, who hadn’t scored in ages, carried down the right side of the box and placed a perfect shot inside the far post past Gallese to make it 2-1.

“A bad decision from us,” Pareja said about the play. “I think it’s a product of our ambition to go and win the game in that moment when the game was tied. And on that particular play that we should have delayed it and waited. But it was a very quick and fast play where the ambition of the two defenders that we had, Joao and Rodri, we could have delayed it. But they did an excellent job of just trying to be ahead as well, and push and press. And then this one, we just unfortunately just conceded that space. We could handle it different, obviously.”

Orlando struggled to maintain enough possession to create chances late in normal time and referee Joe Dickerson added only three minutes of stoppage time despite three goals, numerous substitutions by both teams, and a couple of knocks that delayed restarts. Whether Orlando would have done anything with more time is unknown, but that doesn’t mean three minutes was the appropriate time to give. It’s all immaterial at this point anyway.

NYCFC finished with more possession (57%-43%), passing accuracy (84.9%-80.9%), and shots on target (5-1), while both teams attempted 13 shots and Orlando won more corners (7-4).

“We’re hurting after that loss,” Torres said. “We arrived into the game with a lot of hope and goals to win this game and to put ourselves in a good position on the table, and we came away with a loss.” 

City can only get a home playoff match by winning out and having Charlotte take something from its final match at the New York Red Bulls on Decision Day. As the Lions have dropped three of their last four league matches, the focus has to just be on getting in at this point, and if it leads to hosting a game, so be it.

“We have been in this mode of must-win and games that are important in the last two months and a half, so it’s not strange for us to be in this mode of needing to win and get the points to qualify,” Pareja said. “We hope that these two days are enough to recover the group and face the next game on Wednesday in Miami, and we still have another one at home.”

Orlando City will close out the road portion of the regular-season on Wednesday with a quick turnaround against Inter Miami in Fort Lauderdale. That match obviously takes on much more importance after the Lions failed to bring any points home from today’s game.

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Orlando City

How Orlando City’s Offense Stacks Up Against What Atlanta Does Defensively

How Orlando City has performed against teams playing with three or four defenders, and how that may influence the playoff game against Atlanta United.

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11 hours ago

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November 21, 2024

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

The most famous quote about real estate is that “there are three things that matter in property: location, location, location.” Soccer coaches also like to think in threes, especially when it comes to points, but for a soccer coach, the three things that matter might be the rhyming triplet “formation, formation, formation,” as that is where they will have the biggest influence on every game that their team plays.

Throughout his tenure as head coach, Óscar Pareja has preferred to use a 4-2-3-1 as his formation (fbref.com’s lineup data shows that the Lions primarily played a 4-2-3-1 in 65% of their MLS matches this season, and 79% of their MLS matches during the last three seasons). The Lions have lined up in a 4-2-3-1 during each of their last 14 games, and my confidence level is strong to quite strong (can you believe Meet the Parents came out 24 years ago?) that they will do so once again on Sunday when they host Atlanta United.

Atlanta United also prefers to deploy a 4-2-3-1, but was less consistent than Orlando City this season during MLS play, as evidenced by the chart below that shows how Atlanta lined up this season:

The purpose of this image is a table to show how Atlanta United lined up in 2024 (mostly in a 4-2-3-1 but also in one of six other formations).

I am relying on the coders at Opta for their evaluation of the formation, as I do not watch a lot of Atlanta United matches (sounds terrible), but though Atlanta primarily played with four defenders in more than two-thirds of its matches, during the last two matches it played a 3-5-2, the only two matches all season in which interim coach Rob Valentino rolled out that formation. I suspect that the formation change was related partially to playing Inter Miami and trying to defend the Herons’ dynamic offense and partially due to an injury suffered by defender Brooks Lennon in the first game of that series. So, while Atlanta primarily played four in the back for most of the season, there is a good chance it will roll with what worked against Florida’s second-best MLS team when it plays Florida’s best MLS team this weekend.

Now, if you want to read more about Atlanta, then you can read our match preview, which will drop Sunday morning, but I want to look at how Orlando did against teams that play similar styles. Looking only at MLS games, the table below shows how Orlando City performed against different back line structures this season (the left side is how the Lions’ opponents lined up, the right side is how Orlando City performed against opponents in those formations):

Table embedded as an image showing Orlando City doing best in goal differential in 12 games against three-man back lines, second best against four-man back lines, and having played once against a five-man back line (a 1-1 draw).

Orlando City earned slightly more points per game — the stat that matters most — against teams that played four in the back, but the Lions had a better average goal differential when teams played three in the back. Atlanta will likely deploy one of those two formations. In both games against Orlando City this season, Sunday’s visitors went with a 4-2-3-1, but as mentioned earlier, they used three in the back in each of their last two matches, so it really could be either.

Soccer is not like baseball, where players primarily stay in the same spot throughout the game, so some of these stats have to be taken with a grain of salt, as players are not always rigidly in the same position throughout a match. A team may also primarily play with four in the back but switch to three when chasing a game, or five when trying to protect against a late goal.

That said, using the data around Orlando City’s opponents’ general formations, here are the attacking groups who played the most frequently against four defenders during the 24 MLS games where Opta coded the opponents as using a defensive group of four:

Table embedded as an image showing the most frequently used lineups against teams who deploy four defenders. The most frequently used attacking group has a plus eight goal differential for the season.

It is a little ominous that the main starting group, shown in row one, has played 666 MLS minutes against back lines of four this season, but do I like that green goal differential of +8 in those minutes, which is a strong +1.08 per 90 minutes. I like that goal differential more than I like all the things that Cardi B, Bad Bunny, and J Balvin like on their song that is creatively named “I Like It.” Coincidentally, when people ask me what I think about that song, I say, “I like it.” I am very creative.

If we look at the lineups that Orlando City has used against back lines of three defenders then there are some pretty major differences in personnel groupings, but it must be noted that more than half of the games against teams playing three in the back came early in the season, when Ramiro Enrique was unavailable to play. Enrique, my presumed starter at striker, has played fewer than three games’ worth of minutes (265 total) against back lines of three this season, and only 28 minutes with the main starting group, which ranks 13th among all the attacking lineups for minutes played against three defenders. That group scored one goal in their 28 minutes together though, for a robust 3.21 goals-scored-per-90-minutes average.

While the team as a whole has been successful against three-man back lines, I do not expect any of the lineups shown in the table below to play more than a few minutes together this weekend, though the first row and the last row are strong groups and had a lot of success.

Table embedded as an image showing the most frequently used lineups against teams who deploy three defenders. The most frequently used attacking group has a plus three goal differential for the season.

I am sure that all week long the Orlando City coaching staff has been going back and forth on whether it is more likely that Atlanta reverts to its most commonly used four in the back, or if the Five Stripes try for three wins in a row with three in the back. I would prefer that Atlanta plays with zero defenders and goalkeeper Brad Guzan wears a blindfold, but I think that is unlikely to be the case.

Even though Atlanta defeated Orlando City both times while in a 4-2-3-1, based on available personnel and recent results, I believe that the team will come out in a 3-5-2 in Inter&Co Stadium in the conference semifinal. Good things come in threes, and Orlando City’s best offensive production this season has been against three defenders, so I am going to be hoping that this continues, and in the third game against Atlanta the Lions grab the three points. Three’s company!

Well, it is a playoff game, so there are no actual points at stake, but you know what I meant.

Vamos Orlando!

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Orlando City

Orlando City vs. Atlanta United: Three Keys to Victory

What do the Lions need to do to get a victory to advance to the Eastern Conference final?

Published

13 hours ago

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November 21, 2024

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

Orlando City continues its playoff journey against Atlanta United Sunday at Inter&Co Stadium. The Lions are coming off an emotional penalty shootout win over Charlotte FC in their best-of-three, first-round series. Likewise, Atlanta United stunned everyone by taking out Inter Miami to advance in its own best-of-three matchup. Now, the rivals meet in the Eastern Conference semifinals.

What does Orlando City need to do to get past Atlanta United to advance to the Easter Conference final?

Beat Guzan

Brad Guzan made 16 saves over Atlanta’s three matches against Inter Miami, including seven in the 3-2 win on the road in Game 3. The 40-year-old former USMNT keeper is in excellent form and is a big reason why the Five Stripes are facing Orlando City. Converting chances against Guzan will be crucial to earning a result. There have been times this season when the Lions have struggled to convert their chances. Despite that, the team has done enough offensively to get to this point. Facundo Torres, Martin Ojeda, Duncan McGuire, Ramiro Enrique, and others have contributed and will need to do so this weekend.

Cartagena is Essential

Orlando City lost twice to Atlanta United during the regular season. What is interesting, and perhaps relevant, is that Wilder Cartagena was out for both of those matches. Cartagena was shown a straight red in the match against Minnesota United prior to the first match against Atlanta way back in March. He was shown a yellow card in the match against FC Cincinnati and then served a yellow card accumulation suspension for the final match of the season against Atlanta. Fortunately for Orlando City, Cartagena will be available for the match this weekend. I’ve mentioned before the importance of Cartagena to Orlando City’s success. When he and Cesar Araujo are on the field together, the defense is simply better. Cartagena is frankly one of the better defensive midfielders in MLS. Atlanta scored five goals in the series against Miami, and Orlando will need to keep the visitors from having that kind of offensive success.

Overcome the Past

That darn international break in the middle of the playoffs is something I don’t love. More precisely, I don’t like it because Orlando City often struggles after a break. It would have been nice if Orlando City could have ridden the momentum from the penalty kick victory into the Atlanta match, but that’s not to be. Now is the time for Orlando City to break some bad habits, including turning around its historical lack of success against Atlanta, and tendency to struggle in the first match after a break. Oscar Pareja needs to have the players in the right frame of mind, and the players need to execute the plan. A full house of supporters can also make a difference. Given it’s a Sunday afternoon match, there’s no reason not to pack the house.

That is what I will be looking for Sunday afternoon. Let me know your thoughts in the comments below. Vamos Orlando!

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Lion Links

Lion Links: 11/21/24

Marta’s chance to shine in NWSL Championship, NWSL and MLS award winners announced, 2025 SheBelieves Cup details, and more.

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17 hours ago

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November 21, 2024

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Image courtesy of Orlando Pride

How’s it going, Mane Landers? I’ve been spending most of this week plotting out some holiday shopping to make things a little less stressful for myself over the next few weeks. A big weekend filled with Orlando soccer awaits us, so make sure to get any errands or obligations out of the way sooner rather than later. Let’s dive into today’s links!

Spotlight Falls On Marta in NWSL Championship

There are plenty of storylines heading into Saturday’s NWSL Championship between the Orlando Pride and Washington Spirit, including Marta’s opportunity to put an exclamation point on what has been an excellent season for the Pride. Orlando has been enjoying the fruits of its labor this season after a rebuild over the past few years that’s included plenty of change in the City Beautiful. Marta has been a constant, however, enduring some difficult seasons since joining the Pride and adapting her game She’s scored in both of the Pride’s playoff games so far and has a chance to author a storybook ending on Saturday.

Ann-Katrin Berger Named NWSL Goalkeeper of the Year

NJ/NY Gotham FC goalkeeper Ann-Katrin Berger was named 2024 NWSL Goalkeeper of the Year, beating out the Pride’s Anna Moorhouse and Utah Royals FC’s Mandy Haught for the honor. It was Berger’s first year in the NWSL and she’s the first European player to win the award. She only conceded 16 goals across her 22 matches for Gotham this season and was a key reason behind her team’s success. I’m not too surprised that Moorhouse did not win, considering how solid the Pride’s defense was as a whole, but this won’t take anything away from a record-breaking season for her.

Wilfried Nancy Named MLS Coach of the Year

Columbus Crew Head Coach Wilfried Nancy was voted 2024 MLS Coach of the Year after a historic season in which the Crew set club records in both points and goals. The Crew also won the Leagues Cup this summer and their 2024 Concacaf Champions Cup campaign included advancing past Tigres and Monterrey en route to the final. This is Nancy’s first time being named Coach of the Year and he has been a finalist for the award every year since 2021. The Frenchman received 40.02% of the vote, winning the award over Inter Miami’s Gerardo Martino and Colorado Rapids Head Coach Chris Armas.

2025 SheBelieves Cup Details Unveiled

The 10th annual SheBelieves Cup will take place next year and the tournament will return to its usual format where each of the four teams plays each other once. The United States Women’s National Team will host Japan, Colombia, and Australia in February in what should be an exciting tournament. The U.S. will take on Colombia on Feb. 20 in Houston before facing Australia in Arizona on Feb. 23 and finishing the tournament on Feb. 26 against Japan at Snapdragon Stadium in San Diego. These games will also be the first domestic games of 2025 for the USWNT as it prepares to qualify for the 2027 World Cup in Brazil.

Eric Quill Named FC Dallas Head Coach

FC Dallas announced that Eric Quill will become the team’s next head coach. Quill joins Dallas after a great year with New Mexico United that included trips to the U.S. Open Cup quarterfinals and USL Championship Western Conference semifinals. It’s also a reunion of sorts for Quill, as he previously coached North Texas SC and was named USL League One Coach of the Year with the club in 2019. Dallas missed out on the playoffs this season, with Peter Luccin coaching the team on an interim basis after the firing of Nico Estevez in June.

Free Kicks

  • District of Columbia Mayor Muriel Bowser challenged Orlando Mayor Buddy Dyer to a bet involving this weekend’s NWSL Championship, with embarrassing lightshows on the line.

That’s all I have for you this time around. I hope you all have a wonderful Thursday and rest of your week!

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