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Orlando City vs. Atlanta United: Final Score 1-0 as Lions Blow Chance to Solidify Playoff Positioning

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2 years ago

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Despite firing 20 shots toward the net and controlling most of the match, Orlando City put only three attempts on frame and lost 1-0 to rival Atlanta United at Exploria Stadium. Thiago Almada scored the game’s only goal.

With the loss, the Lions (12-12-6, 42 points) fell back below .500 at home (7-8-0) and to exactly .500 overall, and Orlando handed the Five Stripes (10-12-9, 39 points) just their second road win of the season despite doubling the visitors’ shots and having the better of the possession and passing throughout the match.

City’s sharpness was the difference and it was costly, as the Lions could have mathematically ensured that three more teams — Toronto, Chicago, and Atlanta — would finish below them with a win. D.C. United is already assured of finishing below Orlando in the standings.

“Difficult defeat obviously at this moment of the season when we need to add those points, especially (against) a direct rival, we come out with this result,” Orlando City Head Coach Oscar Pareja said after the game. “But, I’ve got to say that the boys put all the effort there. Their energy, their character was there. Simply, we didn’t do what we have to do in the last third and if you’re not sharp in those moments, it’s difficult. The other team may have one or two chances and that’s what they’re waiting for. Hopefully we can return to that sharpness on that piece of the field because we were not sharp today.”

Pareja’s lineup included Pedro Gallese in goal behind a back line of Joao Moutinho, Rodrigo Schlegel, Antonio Carlos, and Kyle Smith. With Cesar Araujo suffering from a non-COVID-related illness, Wilder Cartagena got the start in central midfield with Junior Urso, behind an attacking line of Ivan Angulo, Mauricio Pereyra, and Facundo Torres, with Ercan Kara up top.

The game was delayed nearly an hour due to inclement weather and the passing was a bit sloppy at times for both teams throughout the rainy first half. Orlando had more of a hold of the game in the early going. Torres fired a shot that Andrew Gutman blocked in the seventh minute and Angulo fizzed a shot from the right just inches wide of the left post a minute later.

Former Lion Dom Dwyer got a free header in the 12th minute when a cross deflected off of Moutinho and cleared the defense but the striker hit his shot wide.

Urso sent a header at Raul Gudino in the 21st minute for an easy save from a nice cross by Kara.

The Lions came close again five minutes later when Pereyra fed Torres a pass down the left side of the box. Torres sent the ball across for Kara but a sliding Alan Franco got a piece of it and Gudino was alert, making a sprawling effort and keeping it from reaching its intended target. Angulo tried to finesse the loose ball through the traffic but couldn’t get it through.

Orlando gave up a counter chance in the 37th minute that was nearly costly. Luiz Araujo rounded Gallese and sent a shot toward goal but Smith cleared it off the line.

Atlanta was growing in confidence late in the half and Thiago Almada’s shot was easy for Gallese in the 40th.

The best chance of the half for either side fell for Gutman in the first minute of first-half stoppage time. The fullback continued his run after passing off and got in behind the defense to find a return pass waiting for him. Gallese made himself big and sacrificed a sensitive part of his body to make the vital save.

Orlando had a free kick in a dangerous position late in stoppage time but Pereyra sent his entry ball over everyone’s head and that ended the half.

The Lions finished the opening half with more possession (56.5%-43.5%), shots (6-5), and passing accuracy (87.8%-82.9%), while Atlanta got more shots on target (3-1) and won more corners (3-0).

Orlando’s lack of precision was a major problem in the second half as the team simply could not find the net with any shot from anywhere. The first of the team’s chances came on a header in the 51st minute by Kara from a cross by Smith, but his effort was just wide to the left.

Six minutes later Carlos had a free header on a set piece from long range but his was wide to the right.

Pererya fired just off target twice in two minutes, hitting a shot about a yard wide to the right in the 65th minute and firing just over the bar in the 67th.

Atlanta nearly scored in the 72nd minute off a corner when Santiago Sosa got a free header but Gallese made a great diving save to keep it scoreless, but only for the moment.

The Lions got caught being too complacent on the ensuing play with Atlanta playing right down through the middle. Orlando seemed to have sufficient numbers back, but Almada made a good individual effort through some complacent defending. He simply skipped past second-half sub Benji Michel and split him and spectator Andres Perea with a pass to Gutman, then ran passed both without being tracked by either. The Atlanta fullback laid it back off for Almada who put a move on Carlos in space and then sent Gallese the wrong way before slotting home.

“(Almada) came in dribbling. I thought we should have stopped that play there,” Pareja said. “He came up through us and made us feel vulnerable and made us feel weak. We didn’t defend well that particular player and it hurts us.”

Orlando had a chance to pull that goal back quickly when Perea found himself in lots of space outside the area in the 74th minute but he sent his shot off the Heineken sign at the bottom of the upper deck. Two minutes later, substitute Jake Mulraney sent in a cross for fellow sub Tesho Akindele, who flicked it on target but Gudino made a diving stop to push it out for a corner. The ensuing set piece was knocked out to Mulraney outside the box but his shot was over the bar.

Two minutes later, Mulraney had Michel and Schlegel crashing the net but the winger sent his cross straight to the goalkeeper. Just seconds after that, it was Michel’s turn to miss the target.

Akindele got his head to a ball over the top in the 89th minute, but with his back to goal he could only flick it toward goal and hope, but that shot too went wide. The Lions finally got their third and final shot on goal on the final play of the game when a corner kick cross was headed straight at Gudino by Perea.

Orlando finished with more possession (55.6%-44.4%), shots (20-10), and passing accuracy (84.1%-79.9%) but Atlanta got more shots on target (5-3) and each team finished with four corners.

“It was a tough result,” Smith said. “I thought we controlled the game for most of the game. I don’t think they had many chances until the goal. And then at the end of the game we were trying to put balls in the box and they were doing well crowding the box and clearing the ball.”

The Lions have another quick turnaround with Toronto FC visiting Exploria Stadium on Saturday night.

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Orlando City

How Orlando City’s Offense Stacks Up Against What Atlanta Does Defensively

How Orlando City has performed against teams playing with three or four defenders, and how that may influence the playoff game against Atlanta United.

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13 hours ago

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November 21, 2024

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

The most famous quote about real estate is that “there are three things that matter in property: location, location, location.” Soccer coaches also like to think in threes, especially when it comes to points, but for a soccer coach, the three things that matter might be the rhyming triplet “formation, formation, formation,” as that is where they will have the biggest influence on every game that their team plays.

Throughout his tenure as head coach, Óscar Pareja has preferred to use a 4-2-3-1 as his formation (fbref.com’s lineup data shows that the Lions primarily played a 4-2-3-1 in 65% of their MLS matches this season, and 79% of their MLS matches during the last three seasons). The Lions have lined up in a 4-2-3-1 during each of their last 14 games, and my confidence level is strong to quite strong (can you believe Meet the Parents came out 24 years ago?) that they will do so once again on Sunday when they host Atlanta United.

Atlanta United also prefers to deploy a 4-2-3-1, but was less consistent than Orlando City this season during MLS play, as evidenced by the chart below that shows how Atlanta lined up this season:

The purpose of this image is a table to show how Atlanta United lined up in 2024 (mostly in a 4-2-3-1 but also in one of six other formations).

I am relying on the coders at Opta for their evaluation of the formation, as I do not watch a lot of Atlanta United matches (sounds terrible), but though Atlanta primarily played with four defenders in more than two-thirds of its matches, during the last two matches it played a 3-5-2, the only two matches all season in which interim coach Rob Valentino rolled out that formation. I suspect that the formation change was related partially to playing Inter Miami and trying to defend the Herons’ dynamic offense and partially due to an injury suffered by defender Brooks Lennon in the first game of that series. So, while Atlanta primarily played four in the back for most of the season, there is a good chance it will roll with what worked against Florida’s second-best MLS team when it plays Florida’s best MLS team this weekend.

Now, if you want to read more about Atlanta, then you can read our match preview, which will drop Sunday morning, but I want to look at how Orlando did against teams that play similar styles. Looking only at MLS games, the table below shows how Orlando City performed against different back line structures this season (the left side is how the Lions’ opponents lined up, the right side is how Orlando City performed against opponents in those formations):

Table embedded as an image showing Orlando City doing best in goal differential in 12 games against three-man back lines, second best against four-man back lines, and having played once against a five-man back line (a 1-1 draw).

Orlando City earned slightly more points per game — the stat that matters most — against teams that played four in the back, but the Lions had a better average goal differential when teams played three in the back. Atlanta will likely deploy one of those two formations. In both games against Orlando City this season, Sunday’s visitors went with a 4-2-3-1, but as mentioned earlier, they used three in the back in each of their last two matches, so it really could be either.

Soccer is not like baseball, where players primarily stay in the same spot throughout the game, so some of these stats have to be taken with a grain of salt, as players are not always rigidly in the same position throughout a match. A team may also primarily play with four in the back but switch to three when chasing a game, or five when trying to protect against a late goal.

That said, using the data around Orlando City’s opponents’ general formations, here are the attacking groups who played the most frequently against four defenders during the 24 MLS games where Opta coded the opponents as using a defensive group of four:

Table embedded as an image showing the most frequently used lineups against teams who deploy four defenders. The most frequently used attacking group has a plus eight goal differential for the season.

It is a little ominous that the main starting group, shown in row one, has played 666 MLS minutes against back lines of four this season, but do I like that green goal differential of +8 in those minutes, which is a strong +1.08 per 90 minutes. I like that goal differential more than I like all the things that Cardi B, Bad Bunny, and J Balvin like on their song that is creatively named “I Like It.” Coincidentally, when people ask me what I think about that song, I say, “I like it.” I am very creative.

If we look at the lineups that Orlando City has used against back lines of three defenders then there are some pretty major differences in personnel groupings, but it must be noted that more than half of the games against teams playing three in the back came early in the season, when Ramiro Enrique was unavailable to play. Enrique, my presumed starter at striker, has played fewer than three games’ worth of minutes (265 total) against back lines of three this season, and only 28 minutes with the main starting group, which ranks 13th among all the attacking lineups for minutes played against three defenders. That group scored one goal in their 28 minutes together though, for a robust 3.21 goals-scored-per-90-minutes average.

While the team as a whole has been successful against three-man back lines, I do not expect any of the lineups shown in the table below to play more than a few minutes together this weekend, though the first row and the last row are strong groups and had a lot of success.

Table embedded as an image showing the most frequently used lineups against teams who deploy three defenders. The most frequently used attacking group has a plus three goal differential for the season.

I am sure that all week long the Orlando City coaching staff has been going back and forth on whether it is more likely that Atlanta reverts to its most commonly used four in the back, or if the Five Stripes try for three wins in a row with three in the back. I would prefer that Atlanta plays with zero defenders and goalkeeper Brad Guzan wears a blindfold, but I think that is unlikely to be the case.

Even though Atlanta defeated Orlando City both times while in a 4-2-3-1, based on available personnel and recent results, I believe that the team will come out in a 3-5-2 in Inter&Co Stadium in the conference semifinal. Good things come in threes, and Orlando City’s best offensive production this season has been against three defenders, so I am going to be hoping that this continues, and in the third game against Atlanta the Lions grab the three points. Three’s company!

Well, it is a playoff game, so there are no actual points at stake, but you know what I meant.

Vamos Orlando!

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Orlando City vs. Atlanta United: Three Keys to Victory

What do the Lions need to do to get a victory to advance to the Eastern Conference final?

Published

15 hours ago

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November 21, 2024

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

Orlando City continues its playoff journey against Atlanta United Sunday at Inter&Co Stadium. The Lions are coming off an emotional penalty shootout win over Charlotte FC in their best-of-three, first-round series. Likewise, Atlanta United stunned everyone by taking out Inter Miami to advance in its own best-of-three matchup. Now, the rivals meet in the Eastern Conference semifinals.

What does Orlando City need to do to get past Atlanta United to advance to the Easter Conference final?

Beat Guzan

Brad Guzan made 16 saves over Atlanta’s three matches against Inter Miami, including seven in the 3-2 win on the road in Game 3. The 40-year-old former USMNT keeper is in excellent form and is a big reason why the Five Stripes are facing Orlando City. Converting chances against Guzan will be crucial to earning a result. There have been times this season when the Lions have struggled to convert their chances. Despite that, the team has done enough offensively to get to this point. Facundo Torres, Martin Ojeda, Duncan McGuire, Ramiro Enrique, and others have contributed and will need to do so this weekend.

Cartagena is Essential

Orlando City lost twice to Atlanta United during the regular season. What is interesting, and perhaps relevant, is that Wilder Cartagena was out for both of those matches. Cartagena was shown a straight red in the match against Minnesota United prior to the first match against Atlanta way back in March. He was shown a yellow card in the match against FC Cincinnati and then served a yellow card accumulation suspension for the final match of the season against Atlanta. Fortunately for Orlando City, Cartagena will be available for the match this weekend. I’ve mentioned before the importance of Cartagena to Orlando City’s success. When he and Cesar Araujo are on the field together, the defense is simply better. Cartagena is frankly one of the better defensive midfielders in MLS. Atlanta scored five goals in the series against Miami, and Orlando will need to keep the visitors from having that kind of offensive success.

Overcome the Past

That darn international break in the middle of the playoffs is something I don’t love. More precisely, I don’t like it because Orlando City often struggles after a break. It would have been nice if Orlando City could have ridden the momentum from the penalty kick victory into the Atlanta match, but that’s not to be. Now is the time for Orlando City to break some bad habits, including turning around its historical lack of success against Atlanta, and tendency to struggle in the first match after a break. Oscar Pareja needs to have the players in the right frame of mind, and the players need to execute the plan. A full house of supporters can also make a difference. Given it’s a Sunday afternoon match, there’s no reason not to pack the house.

That is what I will be looking for Sunday afternoon. Let me know your thoughts in the comments below. Vamos Orlando!

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Lion Links: 11/21/24

Marta’s chance to shine in NWSL Championship, NWSL and MLS award winners announced, 2025 SheBelieves Cup details, and more.

Published

19 hours ago

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November 21, 2024

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Image courtesy of Orlando Pride

How’s it going, Mane Landers? I’ve been spending most of this week plotting out some holiday shopping to make things a little less stressful for myself over the next few weeks. A big weekend filled with Orlando soccer awaits us, so make sure to get any errands or obligations out of the way sooner rather than later. Let’s dive into today’s links!

Spotlight Falls On Marta in NWSL Championship

There are plenty of storylines heading into Saturday’s NWSL Championship between the Orlando Pride and Washington Spirit, including Marta’s opportunity to put an exclamation point on what has been an excellent season for the Pride. Orlando has been enjoying the fruits of its labor this season after a rebuild over the past few years that’s included plenty of change in the City Beautiful. Marta has been a constant, however, enduring some difficult seasons since joining the Pride and adapting her game She’s scored in both of the Pride’s playoff games so far and has a chance to author a storybook ending on Saturday.

Ann-Katrin Berger Named NWSL Goalkeeper of the Year

NJ/NY Gotham FC goalkeeper Ann-Katrin Berger was named 2024 NWSL Goalkeeper of the Year, beating out the Pride’s Anna Moorhouse and Utah Royals FC’s Mandy Haught for the honor. It was Berger’s first year in the NWSL and she’s the first European player to win the award. She only conceded 16 goals across her 22 matches for Gotham this season and was a key reason behind her team’s success. I’m not too surprised that Moorhouse did not win, considering how solid the Pride’s defense was as a whole, but this won’t take anything away from a record-breaking season for her.

Wilfried Nancy Named MLS Coach of the Year

Columbus Crew Head Coach Wilfried Nancy was voted 2024 MLS Coach of the Year after a historic season in which the Crew set club records in both points and goals. The Crew also won the Leagues Cup this summer and their 2024 Concacaf Champions Cup campaign included advancing past Tigres and Monterrey en route to the final. This is Nancy’s first time being named Coach of the Year and he has been a finalist for the award every year since 2021. The Frenchman received 40.02% of the vote, winning the award over Inter Miami’s Gerardo Martino and Colorado Rapids Head Coach Chris Armas.

2025 SheBelieves Cup Details Unveiled

The 10th annual SheBelieves Cup will take place next year and the tournament will return to its usual format where each of the four teams plays each other once. The United States Women’s National Team will host Japan, Colombia, and Australia in February in what should be an exciting tournament. The U.S. will take on Colombia on Feb. 20 in Houston before facing Australia in Arizona on Feb. 23 and finishing the tournament on Feb. 26 against Japan at Snapdragon Stadium in San Diego. These games will also be the first domestic games of 2025 for the USWNT as it prepares to qualify for the 2027 World Cup in Brazil.

Eric Quill Named FC Dallas Head Coach

FC Dallas announced that Eric Quill will become the team’s next head coach. Quill joins Dallas after a great year with New Mexico United that included trips to the U.S. Open Cup quarterfinals and USL Championship Western Conference semifinals. It’s also a reunion of sorts for Quill, as he previously coached North Texas SC and was named USL League One Coach of the Year with the club in 2019. Dallas missed out on the playoffs this season, with Peter Luccin coaching the team on an interim basis after the firing of Nico Estevez in June.

Free Kicks

  • District of Columbia Mayor Muriel Bowser challenged Orlando Mayor Buddy Dyer to a bet involving this weekend’s NWSL Championship, with embarrassing lightshows on the line.

That’s all I have for you this time around. I hope you all have a wonderful Thursday and rest of your week!

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