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Orlando City vs. D.C. United: Five Takeaways

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2 years ago

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Orlando City finally scored more than two goals in a game this season but that provided no comfort as the Lions were bombed for five goals in a 5-3 home loss to D.C. United on Independence Day at Exploria Stadium. Some fans had barely settled into their seats before the home team was behind by two goals and things got worse before they got better…and then got worse again…and then got better…and then finally sunk to the worst. It was the most goals conceded by Orlando at home under the current regime, and it came at the hands of a team that had scored only 18 total goals in 15 previous matches.

Here’s what I took away from Monday night’s match.

Best XI > Not-Best XI

There is a notable depth issue with this year’s Orlando City squad and even if the players and Head Coach Oscar Pareja like to (understandably) talk publicly about how much belief they have in the entire roster, that is not a belief that bench players have given reason for anyone to share. The coaching staff tried to steal a little rest for starters Cesar Araujo and Facundo Torres Monday night, starting Sebas Mendez and Alexandre Pato in their spots. Additionally, Antonio Carlos continues to work back slowly from his thigh injury and Joao Moutinho — upgraded to ‘questionable’ on this week’s availability report — was not in uniform. Some of the team’s biggest issues against D.C. United came from those spots. We’ll get into some of those specifics below, but with eight matches this month, Orlando City had to have three points from a home game against a team riding a six-match winless skid dating back to early May. With the most days off between games the team will see until August happening between last Wednesday’s match vs. Nashville and Monday night, and Monday night to this Saturday against Miami, those are the two matches in which it’s perhaps wisest to play the best available lineup, resting guys where possible when the fixtures get more crowded.

But hey, I’m not in training every day, so if guys were looking a bit leggy or nursing minor knocks, then Pareja did the right thing in rotating.

A Night to Forget Defensively

Giving up five goals is often a team effort, and so it was Monday night. Most of what D.C. did offensively began in Orlando’s attacking third. Poor decisions or badly executed passes led to turnovers that started the D.C. transition and the Lions simply didn’t handle those situations well at all.

Rodrigo Schlegel’s 1-v-1 defending in transition has been spotty in the last week (albeit against admittedly high-quality players like Hany Mukhtar and Taxi Fountas) and Monday night it was an issue, in addition to the Argentine conceding the free kick that handed Fountas his third goal. But some of that defending wouldn’t have been necessary had Kyle Smith not had a howler of a night at left back, subbing for the injured Moutinho. For all the versatility and admirable willingness to do whatever he can to help the team Smith possesses, Monday night was an incredibly harsh reminder that he is not the starter at the position. Smith was absolutely smoked by…well, whoever D.C. threw at him — Michael Estrada, Drew Skundrich, or anyone who fancied a go down United’s right attacking channel.

Finally, there’s Mendez to wrap up this (lengthy) takeaway. The Ecuadorian has shown himself to be a capable player and many have felt he needed to get some minutes. On Monday night, Mendez got the start and the cynical part of me wonders if it was a showcase for a potential trade. If so, things didn’t go as planned. Mendez showed some rust and, as a No. 6 who normally needs to be forcibly dragged into the attacking half, he was often missing from the team’s efforts to track back in transition.

Pato Not in a Good Place Right Now

With Pato starting in place of Torres, the hope was that scoring a vital penalty in the shootout after Wednesday’s U.S. Open Cup draw with Nashville SC might give the Brazilian veteran some confidence to get back to the form he displayed at the start of the season, when he was arguably the team’s best player on the field. That was not the case.

Pato’s touch, crossing, and passing have been an issue for several games now. Monday night he had a team-high five unstable touches and opponents are getting wise to his hesitation move and they’re waiting on it. He’s also been easy to knock off the ball. As a result of his play, the Lions gave away the ball while in vulnerable positions on Monday. And his shooting was no better — excellent penalty-kick goal aside. In open play he found himself in space twice just outside the box in the middle of the field and he hit both shots wildly off target.

The Lions need more from a player of Pato’s caliber.

Lions Lack Balance

Orlando isn’t getting enough production from the wings, which helps teams that play defensively compact games and keep their lines well organized. Outside of Torres, wing play has been spotty (at best) all season. Pareja has tried several things to fix that. Benji Michel, Junior Urso, and Pato have taken turns and the club brought in Jake Mulraney from Atlanta. Not only has nothing worked with any kind of consistency, but the fullbacks have provided little on the overlap. Moutinho’s absence doesn’t help with that and I don’t even have to get into Ruan’s crossing because…well, Ruan. The diminutive Brazilian speedster is an agent of chaos, which sometimes produces exactly what is needed but often wastes promising attacking opportunities. By providing no threat opposite Torres in either the scoring or the crossing departments, the Lions become much easier to defend. D.C.’s five-man back line was hardly challenged from wide areas and felt comfortable enough to not stretch itself sideline to sideline.

Bereft of Bench Firepower

While Torres did come off the bench and provide a goal and an assist, he’s a starting player, so that’s not unexpected production. The problem lies elsewhere on the bench. This is partly under the umbrella of the team balance mentioned above. In addition to the team lacking balance on either side of the field, it lacks any balance in scoring from the starting XI to the bench.

Michel is on pace for the worst statistical season of his career and the Homegrown winger hasn’t scored since the season opener. Although he was fortunate to win a penalty against D.C., it wasn’t a terribly threatening night for him. Tesho Akindele had a glorious late chance in transition against United but predictably fired with his strong foot, which Rafael Romo did well to read and easily smother, whereas a quick movement onto his left might have produced a more difficult opportunity, yet with a much higher probability of success. For all of Michel’s struggles, Akindele has yet to score an MLS goal in 2022. However, it’s important to keep in mind he hasn’t played more than 20 minutes in any league match since March 27 at Portland, which makes it difficult to find any kind of form.

Oh, and Jack Lynn made a late appearance but wasn’t on the field long enough to work up a sweat, let alone make an impact. There is no super sub on this year’s roster. There are barely even guys who can change the game’s energy. That was apparent against D.C.

Bonus Takeaway: Adding Injury to Insult

As bad as Monday’s match was, it could have a longer lasting impact. Captain Mauricio Pereyra, the team’s only viable No. 10 and chief breaker of lines, pulled up in the waning moments of the game with a non-contact injury while retrieving a ball out of play for a throw-in. The extent of the injury wasn’t known after the match and he’ll be evaluated today. An injury to Pereyra is precisely the worst possible player to lose, given the lack of anyone’s ability to replace what he does in the lineup and it underscores the club’s biggest off-season failure — finding a suitable backup. If the technical staff thought Andres Perea would grow into that kind of player, it hasn’t happened. In fact, Perea has regressed a bit in 2022. Torres seems more comfortable in wide spots and is still young and developing. Pato might be the closest thing the team has to a backup No. 10, but his form is dreadful at the moment and his passing rate and tendency to take on multiple defenders himself can be a liability in that position. If Pereyra’s injury from late Monday is serious — and he was limping after the match — it could mean more than one battle lost for Orlando.

Those are the talking points I had from Monday night’s loss. What stuck out to you? Let’s chat about it in the comments section below.

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Orlando City

How Orlando City’s Offense Stacks Up Against What Atlanta Does Defensively

How Orlando City has performed against teams playing with three or four defenders, and how that may influence the playoff game against Atlanta United.

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12 hours ago

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November 21, 2024

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

The most famous quote about real estate is that “there are three things that matter in property: location, location, location.” Soccer coaches also like to think in threes, especially when it comes to points, but for a soccer coach, the three things that matter might be the rhyming triplet “formation, formation, formation,” as that is where they will have the biggest influence on every game that their team plays.

Throughout his tenure as head coach, Óscar Pareja has preferred to use a 4-2-3-1 as his formation (fbref.com’s lineup data shows that the Lions primarily played a 4-2-3-1 in 65% of their MLS matches this season, and 79% of their MLS matches during the last three seasons). The Lions have lined up in a 4-2-3-1 during each of their last 14 games, and my confidence level is strong to quite strong (can you believe Meet the Parents came out 24 years ago?) that they will do so once again on Sunday when they host Atlanta United.

Atlanta United also prefers to deploy a 4-2-3-1, but was less consistent than Orlando City this season during MLS play, as evidenced by the chart below that shows how Atlanta lined up this season:

The purpose of this image is a table to show how Atlanta United lined up in 2024 (mostly in a 4-2-3-1 but also in one of six other formations).

I am relying on the coders at Opta for their evaluation of the formation, as I do not watch a lot of Atlanta United matches (sounds terrible), but though Atlanta primarily played with four defenders in more than two-thirds of its matches, during the last two matches it played a 3-5-2, the only two matches all season in which interim coach Rob Valentino rolled out that formation. I suspect that the formation change was related partially to playing Inter Miami and trying to defend the Herons’ dynamic offense and partially due to an injury suffered by defender Brooks Lennon in the first game of that series. So, while Atlanta primarily played four in the back for most of the season, there is a good chance it will roll with what worked against Florida’s second-best MLS team when it plays Florida’s best MLS team this weekend.

Now, if you want to read more about Atlanta, then you can read our match preview, which will drop Sunday morning, but I want to look at how Orlando did against teams that play similar styles. Looking only at MLS games, the table below shows how Orlando City performed against different back line structures this season (the left side is how the Lions’ opponents lined up, the right side is how Orlando City performed against opponents in those formations):

Table embedded as an image showing Orlando City doing best in goal differential in 12 games against three-man back lines, second best against four-man back lines, and having played once against a five-man back line (a 1-1 draw).

Orlando City earned slightly more points per game — the stat that matters most — against teams that played four in the back, but the Lions had a better average goal differential when teams played three in the back. Atlanta will likely deploy one of those two formations. In both games against Orlando City this season, Sunday’s visitors went with a 4-2-3-1, but as mentioned earlier, they used three in the back in each of their last two matches, so it really could be either.

Soccer is not like baseball, where players primarily stay in the same spot throughout the game, so some of these stats have to be taken with a grain of salt, as players are not always rigidly in the same position throughout a match. A team may also primarily play with four in the back but switch to three when chasing a game, or five when trying to protect against a late goal.

That said, using the data around Orlando City’s opponents’ general formations, here are the attacking groups who played the most frequently against four defenders during the 24 MLS games where Opta coded the opponents as using a defensive group of four:

Table embedded as an image showing the most frequently used lineups against teams who deploy four defenders. The most frequently used attacking group has a plus eight goal differential for the season.

It is a little ominous that the main starting group, shown in row one, has played 666 MLS minutes against back lines of four this season, but do I like that green goal differential of +8 in those minutes, which is a strong +1.08 per 90 minutes. I like that goal differential more than I like all the things that Cardi B, Bad Bunny, and J Balvin like on their song that is creatively named “I Like It.” Coincidentally, when people ask me what I think about that song, I say, “I like it.” I am very creative.

If we look at the lineups that Orlando City has used against back lines of three defenders then there are some pretty major differences in personnel groupings, but it must be noted that more than half of the games against teams playing three in the back came early in the season, when Ramiro Enrique was unavailable to play. Enrique, my presumed starter at striker, has played fewer than three games’ worth of minutes (265 total) against back lines of three this season, and only 28 minutes with the main starting group, which ranks 13th among all the attacking lineups for minutes played against three defenders. That group scored one goal in their 28 minutes together though, for a robust 3.21 goals-scored-per-90-minutes average.

While the team as a whole has been successful against three-man back lines, I do not expect any of the lineups shown in the table below to play more than a few minutes together this weekend, though the first row and the last row are strong groups and had a lot of success.

Table embedded as an image showing the most frequently used lineups against teams who deploy three defenders. The most frequently used attacking group has a plus three goal differential for the season.

I am sure that all week long the Orlando City coaching staff has been going back and forth on whether it is more likely that Atlanta reverts to its most commonly used four in the back, or if the Five Stripes try for three wins in a row with three in the back. I would prefer that Atlanta plays with zero defenders and goalkeeper Brad Guzan wears a blindfold, but I think that is unlikely to be the case.

Even though Atlanta defeated Orlando City both times while in a 4-2-3-1, based on available personnel and recent results, I believe that the team will come out in a 3-5-2 in Inter&Co Stadium in the conference semifinal. Good things come in threes, and Orlando City’s best offensive production this season has been against three defenders, so I am going to be hoping that this continues, and in the third game against Atlanta the Lions grab the three points. Three’s company!

Well, it is a playoff game, so there are no actual points at stake, but you know what I meant.

Vamos Orlando!

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Orlando City

Orlando City vs. Atlanta United: Three Keys to Victory

What do the Lions need to do to get a victory to advance to the Eastern Conference final?

Published

14 hours ago

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November 21, 2024

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

Orlando City continues its playoff journey against Atlanta United Sunday at Inter&Co Stadium. The Lions are coming off an emotional penalty shootout win over Charlotte FC in their best-of-three, first-round series. Likewise, Atlanta United stunned everyone by taking out Inter Miami to advance in its own best-of-three matchup. Now, the rivals meet in the Eastern Conference semifinals.

What does Orlando City need to do to get past Atlanta United to advance to the Easter Conference final?

Beat Guzan

Brad Guzan made 16 saves over Atlanta’s three matches against Inter Miami, including seven in the 3-2 win on the road in Game 3. The 40-year-old former USMNT keeper is in excellent form and is a big reason why the Five Stripes are facing Orlando City. Converting chances against Guzan will be crucial to earning a result. There have been times this season when the Lions have struggled to convert their chances. Despite that, the team has done enough offensively to get to this point. Facundo Torres, Martin Ojeda, Duncan McGuire, Ramiro Enrique, and others have contributed and will need to do so this weekend.

Cartagena is Essential

Orlando City lost twice to Atlanta United during the regular season. What is interesting, and perhaps relevant, is that Wilder Cartagena was out for both of those matches. Cartagena was shown a straight red in the match against Minnesota United prior to the first match against Atlanta way back in March. He was shown a yellow card in the match against FC Cincinnati and then served a yellow card accumulation suspension for the final match of the season against Atlanta. Fortunately for Orlando City, Cartagena will be available for the match this weekend. I’ve mentioned before the importance of Cartagena to Orlando City’s success. When he and Cesar Araujo are on the field together, the defense is simply better. Cartagena is frankly one of the better defensive midfielders in MLS. Atlanta scored five goals in the series against Miami, and Orlando will need to keep the visitors from having that kind of offensive success.

Overcome the Past

That darn international break in the middle of the playoffs is something I don’t love. More precisely, I don’t like it because Orlando City often struggles after a break. It would have been nice if Orlando City could have ridden the momentum from the penalty kick victory into the Atlanta match, but that’s not to be. Now is the time for Orlando City to break some bad habits, including turning around its historical lack of success against Atlanta, and tendency to struggle in the first match after a break. Oscar Pareja needs to have the players in the right frame of mind, and the players need to execute the plan. A full house of supporters can also make a difference. Given it’s a Sunday afternoon match, there’s no reason not to pack the house.

That is what I will be looking for Sunday afternoon. Let me know your thoughts in the comments below. Vamos Orlando!

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Lion Links

Lion Links: 11/21/24

Marta’s chance to shine in NWSL Championship, NWSL and MLS award winners announced, 2025 SheBelieves Cup details, and more.

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18 hours ago

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November 21, 2024

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Image courtesy of Orlando Pride

How’s it going, Mane Landers? I’ve been spending most of this week plotting out some holiday shopping to make things a little less stressful for myself over the next few weeks. A big weekend filled with Orlando soccer awaits us, so make sure to get any errands or obligations out of the way sooner rather than later. Let’s dive into today’s links!

Spotlight Falls On Marta in NWSL Championship

There are plenty of storylines heading into Saturday’s NWSL Championship between the Orlando Pride and Washington Spirit, including Marta’s opportunity to put an exclamation point on what has been an excellent season for the Pride. Orlando has been enjoying the fruits of its labor this season after a rebuild over the past few years that’s included plenty of change in the City Beautiful. Marta has been a constant, however, enduring some difficult seasons since joining the Pride and adapting her game She’s scored in both of the Pride’s playoff games so far and has a chance to author a storybook ending on Saturday.

Ann-Katrin Berger Named NWSL Goalkeeper of the Year

NJ/NY Gotham FC goalkeeper Ann-Katrin Berger was named 2024 NWSL Goalkeeper of the Year, beating out the Pride’s Anna Moorhouse and Utah Royals FC’s Mandy Haught for the honor. It was Berger’s first year in the NWSL and she’s the first European player to win the award. She only conceded 16 goals across her 22 matches for Gotham this season and was a key reason behind her team’s success. I’m not too surprised that Moorhouse did not win, considering how solid the Pride’s defense was as a whole, but this won’t take anything away from a record-breaking season for her.

Wilfried Nancy Named MLS Coach of the Year

Columbus Crew Head Coach Wilfried Nancy was voted 2024 MLS Coach of the Year after a historic season in which the Crew set club records in both points and goals. The Crew also won the Leagues Cup this summer and their 2024 Concacaf Champions Cup campaign included advancing past Tigres and Monterrey en route to the final. This is Nancy’s first time being named Coach of the Year and he has been a finalist for the award every year since 2021. The Frenchman received 40.02% of the vote, winning the award over Inter Miami’s Gerardo Martino and Colorado Rapids Head Coach Chris Armas.

2025 SheBelieves Cup Details Unveiled

The 10th annual SheBelieves Cup will take place next year and the tournament will return to its usual format where each of the four teams plays each other once. The United States Women’s National Team will host Japan, Colombia, and Australia in February in what should be an exciting tournament. The U.S. will take on Colombia on Feb. 20 in Houston before facing Australia in Arizona on Feb. 23 and finishing the tournament on Feb. 26 against Japan at Snapdragon Stadium in San Diego. These games will also be the first domestic games of 2025 for the USWNT as it prepares to qualify for the 2027 World Cup in Brazil.

Eric Quill Named FC Dallas Head Coach

FC Dallas announced that Eric Quill will become the team’s next head coach. Quill joins Dallas after a great year with New Mexico United that included trips to the U.S. Open Cup quarterfinals and USL Championship Western Conference semifinals. It’s also a reunion of sorts for Quill, as he previously coached North Texas SC and was named USL League One Coach of the Year with the club in 2019. Dallas missed out on the playoffs this season, with Peter Luccin coaching the team on an interim basis after the firing of Nico Estevez in June.

Free Kicks

  • District of Columbia Mayor Muriel Bowser challenged Orlando Mayor Buddy Dyer to a bet involving this weekend’s NWSL Championship, with embarrassing lightshows on the line.

That’s all I have for you this time around. I hope you all have a wonderful Thursday and rest of your week!

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