Uncategorized
Measuring Orlando City’s Ability to Contend for a Cup
It took Orlando City six seasons after making the move to MLS to make the playoffs. Expectations have been raised for 2021, and I started to wonder what it would take for the Lions to win the MLS Cup. The most obvious answer is some luck. A championship means having calls go your way, balls bounce the right direction, and plenty of injury luck.
I decided to look back at the MLS Cup winners since Orlando City arrived in the league and see how they did on goals scored, goals allowed, and total points. The 2020 season could have messed with that due to a different number of games played, so ultimately we’ll look at points per match to even things out. Hopefully, we might be able to see what the Lions will need to do to get to the top of the mountain.
2015
In Orlando City’s first season in MLS, the Portland Timbers won the MLS Cup. Through 34 matches, the Timbers scored 41 goals, and allowed 39 for a plus-two goal differential. Portland finished the regular season in third place in the Western Conference with a total of 53 points. That translates to 1.56 points per match.
By contrast, Orlando City scored 46 goals, and allowed 56 for a negative-10 goal differential. The Lions finished with 44 points, which is 1.29 points per match and was good enough for seventh place. That result had Orlando City looking in at the playoffs from just outside the bubble.
2016
In 2016, the Seattle Sounders won it all. The Sounders played 34 matches, scored 44 goals, and allowed 43 for a plus-one goal differential. Seattle finished the regular season in fourth place in the Western Conference with a total of 48 points. That translates to 1.41 points per match. This was statistically the worst performance of an eventual MLS Cup winner, but there’s always an outlier.
Orlando City scored 55 goals, and allowed 60 for a negative-four goal differential. The Lions finished with 41 points, which is 1.21 points per match, and the Lions slipped to an eighth-place finish in the Eastern Conference.
2017
Toronto FC played 34 matches, scored 74 goals, and allowed 37 for a ridiculous plus-37 goal differential. Toronto finished the regular season in first place in the Eastern Conference with a total of 69 points. That translates to 2.03 points per match. Toronto ran away with the regular season, and did everything needed in the playoffs.
Meanwhile, Orlando City’s slide continued. The Lions only scored 39 goals and allowed 58, for a negative-19 goal differential. Orlando finished with 39 points, which is 1.15 points per match, and fell to 10th in the Eastern Conference.
2018
2018 turned out to be the worst year for many reasons. Over 34 matches, Atlanta scored 70 goals and allowed 44 for a plus-26 goal differential, finishing the regular season in second place in the Eastern Conference with a total of 69 points. That translates to 2.03 points per match.
Orlando City, on the other hand, put in the club’s worst season in MLS. The Lions scored 43 goals, but allowed a whopping (then-league record) 74 for a negative-31 goal differential. The Lions finished with a dismal 28 points which is a ridiculously low 0.82 points per match. Needless to say, Orlando City finished dead last in 11th place in the Eastern Conference.
2019
After three years, the Seattle Sounders once again took hold of the MLS Cup. The Sounders played 34 matches, scored 52 goals, and allowed 49 for a plus-three goal differential. Seattle finished the regular season in second place in the Western Conference with a total of 56 points. That translates to 1.65 points per match.
Orlando City did slightly better than the previous season, scoring 44 goals, but the defense cut the goals allowed down to 52 for a negative-eight goal differential. The Lions finished with 37 points, which is 1.09 points per match. Orlando City finished 11th in the Eastern Conference again, but it was at least a little better.
2020
Last season, the Columbus Crew won the Cup. Given it was a shortened season, the Crew played 23 matches, scored 36 goals, and allowed 21 for a plus-15 goal differential. Columbus finished the regular season in third place in the Eastern Conference with a total of 41 points. That translates to 1.78 points per match.
As I’m sure you know, the Lions completely turned things around in 2020. Orlando City scored 40 goals and only allowed 25 for a plus-15 goal differential. The Lions also finished with 41 points and 1.78 points per match, finishing just behind the Crew in fourth place in the Eastern Conference.
Looking Ahead
So what can we take away from all of this? Every Cup winner had a positive goal differential, which is not surprising. Last year, Orlando City finished well enough at the end of the regular season to equal or better four of the last six MLS Cup winners in both goal differential and points per match.
That brings us back to the other thing a club needs to win it all…luck. Between the players that Orlando City has added, and another year under Óscar Pareja, it might be that all the Lions need to bring home silverware is for a few intangibles to break the club’s way.
Orlando City
Orlando City vs. San Jose Earthquakes: Preview, How to Watch, TV Info, Live Stream, Lineups, Match Thread, and More
Orlando City restarts its 2026 MLS campaign late tonight out west at San Jose.
Welcome to your match thread for a late night midweek matchup tonight between Orlando City (4-9-2, 14 points) and the San Jose Earthquakes (10-3-2, 32 points) at PayPal Park (10:30 p.m., Apple TV). This is the only scheduled meeting between the teams in 2026 and the first time the teams have met since 2024.
Here’s what you need to know ahead of tonight’s match.
History
Orlando City is 3-1-3 in the previous seven MLS meetings with the Quakes since the club joined Major League Soccer in 2015. The Lions got their only away win in the series in the last meeting and enter tonight 1-1-2 on the road against San Jose.
The teams last met on May 18, 2024, with Jack Lynn coming off the bench to score the game’s only goal. Lynn’s strike in the 89th minute broke the scoreless deadlock and lifted the Lions to a 1-0 victory.
The teams met in Orlando most recently way back on June 22, 2021, with the Lions beating the Quakes down, 5-0. Orlando got things started with an early penalty kick goal by Nani, followed by braces from Benji Michel and Daryl Dike to easily put the game away. The lasting memory from the game is Michel’s celebratory dance wearing a cowboy hat that came out of the stands.
Prior to that Orlando City romp, the last time the teams met was on Aug. 31, 2019 when the Lions got freight trained 3-0 at Avaya Stadium, giving the Quakes their first win in the series. San Jose’s offense came via a Chris Wondolowski brace and an early opening goal by Magnus Eriksson. Orlando looked flat and weary out of the gate.
The Lions were victorious in Exploria Stadium in the 2018 meeting on April 21, a 3-2 Orlando win. It was the first win in the series for either side after three straight draws. Chris Mueller, Sacha Kljestan, and Dom Dwyer gave the Lions a 3-0 lead before Florian Jungwirth pulled two back in the game’s late stages.
The Lions led all of the first three matches in the second half only to see San Jose pull level, with two of those tying goals coming late. In the 2017 meeting, Carlos Rivas finally broke the scoreless tie and gave Orlando City the lead in the 81st minute, but Wondolowski spoiled the Lions’ night with an equalizer two minutes later as the teams drew at Avaya Stadium, 1-1.
In 2016, the Lions were gut-punched in the 94th minute in an emotional match that ended in a 2-2 draw. It was the first home match following the Pulse nightclub tragedy and what appeared to be a storybook ending to a cathartic win turned sour on a last-gasp equalizer by Shea Salinas. Seb Hines — now the Orlando Pride’s head coach — opened the scoring for Orlando, only to see Chad Barrett tie it up. Julio Baptista restored the lead in stoppage time, but Salinas ruined everything.
The two teams also drew in the first meeting, a 1-1 affair at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, with the Lions down to 10 men after Brek Shea was sent off in the first half. Kaká and Wondolowski each scored from the penalty spot four minutes apart in that initial meeting.
Overview
The teams meet tonight to get their post-World Cup portion of the season started. Orlando City has been terrible on the road all season long, keeping only one MLS opponent under two goals all year away from home and allowing five goals twice (at New York City FC and Nashville) and six goals twice (at LAFC and in the team’s most recent match away at FC Cincinnati just before the break).
Orlando City is a putrid 1-6-1 on the road this season, and now the Lions must face the Western Conference co-leaders tonight before coming home to face Supporters’ Shield-leading Nashville SC at home on Saturday. They’ll have to play at least tonight’s game without Martin Ojeda, who is out with a thigh injury sustained some time between his first-half goal a week ago in a friendly against FC Dallas and the time the availability report dropped on Tuesday.
But it isn’t all bad news for the Lions, who should have both Antoine Griezmann and Dike in the lineup. Griezmann was the club’s highly prized and widely publicized summer Designated Player signing, while Dike’s return to Orlando came together more recently, following his departure from West Bromwich Albion. They’ll help the club’s offense, but the attack hasn’t been the issue in 2026 — it’s been the historically porous defense, which is on pace to shatter the MLS record for goals conceded.
Meanwhile, San Jose is one of the first half of the season’s biggest surprises, as the Quakes have been outstanding in 2026. Scoring 34 goals while conceding just 15, San Jose is among the league leaders in goals scored (tied for third), goals conceded (third), and goal differential (+19, third).
The Earthquakes are 4-2-1 at home and are coming off a 3-1 road win at Portland in their last game prior to the World Cup break. San Jose boasts Golden Boot challenger Preston Judd, who leads the Quakes with 11 goals, adding two assists in his 15 appearances. Ousseni Bouda has chipped in five goals and three assists. Niko Tsakiris leads the team with seven assists to go along with his two goals, but he’s still recovering from a lower body injury and is not available tonight. However, the arrival of Timo Werner (four goals and five assists in just seven games) has truly elevated Bruce Arena’s Quakes, and he’ll need to be one of the main focal points for the Orlando defense.
To have any shot at taking something from this game, the Lions will need to play better road defense than they have all season. Orlando can score goals, but with Ojeda out, Griezmann will need to adapt quickly, and someone other than the team’s leading scorer will need to find the net.
The Lions will play without Ojeda (thigh), Joran Gerbet (knee), Nolan Miller (knee), Colin Guske (international duty), and Clovis Archage (international duty). In addition, Marco Pasalic may or may not have returned to the team after the World Cup. He was not in training Monday, although interim head coach Martin Perelman said he expected the Croatian back soon. The Earthquakes will be without Nonso Adimabua (lower body), former Lion Earl Edwards Jr. (lower body), DeJuan Jones (lower body), and Tsakiris (you guessed it, lower body…come on, San Jose).
Match Content
- Our most recent PawedCast includes our key matchups and score predictions for tonight’s match.
Official Lineups:
Orlando City (4-4-2)
Goalkeeper: Maxime Crepeau.
Defenders: Adrian Marin, David Brekalo, Robin Jansson, Griffin Dorsey.
Midfielders: Ivan Angulo, Braian Ojeda, Eduard Atuesta, Tiago.
Forwards: Justin Ellis, Antoine Griezmann.
Bench: Javier Otero, Bernardo Rhein, Tahir Reid-Brown, Zakaria Taifi, Iago, Wilder Cartagena, Luis Otavio, Harvey Sarajian, Tyrese Spicer
San Jose Earthquakes (4-2-3-1)
Goalkeeper: Angus Gunn.
Defenders: Jamar Ricketts, Reid Roberts, Daniel Munie, Benjamin Kikanovic.
Defensive Midfielders: Beau Lerouox, Ronaldo Vieira.
Attacking Midfielders: Timo Werner, Nick Fernandez, Ousseni Bouda.
Forwards: Preston Judd.
Bench: Jonathan Gonzalez, Dave Romney, Paul Marie, Jack Skahan, Jack Jasinski, Ian Harkes, Francesco Montali, Max Floriani, Darius Johnson.
Referees
REF: Elijio Arreguin.
AR1: Adam Wienckowski.
AR2: Mike Nickerson.
4TH: Timothy Ford.
VAR: Jose Carlos Rivero.
AVAR: TJ Zablocki.
How to Watch
Match Time: 10:30 p.m.
Venue: PayPal Park — San Jose, CA.
TV/Live Stream: Apple TV.
Radio: AM 810 FOX Sports Radio Orlando (English), Mega 97.1 FM (Spanish), Nossa Rádio 1160 AM-WRLZ (Portuguese).
Social Media: For rapid reaction and live updates, follow us on Bluesky Social at @themaneland.bsky.social or follow Orlando City’s official Twitter (@OrlandoCitySC) or Bluesky (@OrlandoCitySC) feed.
Enjoy the match. Go City!
Podcasts
PawedCast Episode 542: Tampa Bay Friendly, McGuire Traded, OCB Beats Cincinnati, and More
Lions maul the Rowdies in friendly action, OCB wins on the road, and it’s transfer season.
Orlando City welcomed I-4 Derby rival Tampa Bay to Inter&Co Stadium for a friendly match on Wednesday and then proceeded to bludgeon the Rowdies with a couple of hammers named Antoine Griezmann and Justin Ellis. The two attackers combined for a goal and four assists in a 6-0 beatdown of the team from the Gulf Coast, with five different Lions scoring and Griffin Dorsey forcing an own goal. We discuss Griezmann’s first minutes with Orlando City, what the team showed in its formation, and how good Justin Ellis’ vision is.
Oh, and it’s also transfer season now. Duncan McGuire is on his way out and Marco Pasalic reportedly will follow soon, while a new left back may be headed from Spain to Orlando.
Following all of that, we discuss Maxime Crepeau being added to the MLS All-Star Team and the announcement that he’ll participate in the 2026 MLS All-Star Skills Challenge.
Our mailbagbox asked us about which World Cup semifinalist players we’d want to join Orlando this season (if we could only pick one), and more. Remember, if there’s anything — and we do mean anything — you want us to address on the show, just ask us by tweeting it to us at @TheManeLand with the hashtag #AskTMLPC, or hitting us up on Bluesky Social with that same hashtag.
After the mailbagbox, we dive into OCB’s 2-1 road win at FC Cincinnati 2. It wasn’t the prettiest game by the Young Lions, but they managed to do enough to earn three points on the road, where they’ll stay to face Chattanooga on Saturday. We briefly preview that game.
Finally, Orlando City will be in Dallas Wednesday for the second of two friendlies leading up to the restart of the MLS season. It’s unlikely we’ll get a lot of details about that one, but we’ll see what happens. Maybe the FC Dallas folks will help us out.
Be sure to rate and review our show wherever you get your podcasts. Remember, we’ll read any five-star reviews we get on Apple Podcasts on the next show.
If you’d like to support our independent writing and podcasting efforts, we’d love to have you as a subscriber or donor over at our Buy Me a Coffee site.
Here’s how No. 542 went down:
0:15 – Orlando City crushed the Rowdies, the transfer season is in full swing, plus: hey now, Crepeau’s an all-star.
28:50 – The mailbagbox is always good for a hypothetical scenario.
36:54 – The Young Lions slipped past Cincy and head to Chattanooga, while the senior Lions head to Dallas.
Podcasts
SkoPurp Soccer Episode 119: International Break, USWNT, Louisville Preview, and More
The Pride return from a long international break looking to get their first-ever road win against Racing Louisville.
It feels like months since the Orlando Pride last took the field, but the calendar says otherwise. If you believe calendars, it’s only been a little less than three weeks, but time moves strangely in the post-pandemic apocalyptic world.
Anyway, we don’t have a match to recap, so we touched on a couple of Pride players putting the ball in the net during the international break and chat a bit about the United States Women’s National Team’s three-game friendly series against Japan. Emma Hayes used a lot of players, and the team looked solid for two of the three matches, but the rotated middle game seemed a bit disjointed. Hayes has greatly expanded the player pool and will have plenty of options when the World Cup approaches.
Our mailbagbox had questions about a potential change in the NWSL schedule, as the league explores adopting the fall-to-spring slate, and opposition own goals. Remember, you can ask us anything by hitting us up on Twitter at either @TheManeLand or @SkoPurpSoccer and using the hashtag #AskSkoPurp. You can use that same hashtag and hit @TheManeLand.bsky.social up on Bluesky. Or you can visit our show page, scroll down, and fill out the handy form. We’d also appreciate any ratings or reviews you can leave wherever you get your podcasts, and if you do that on Apple Podcasts, we’ll find them easily and read them on the show.
After the mailbagbox, we turned our attention toward Friday’s late afternoon tussle with Racing Louisville in Kentucky. The Pride have never won on the road against Louisville, and it’s about high time they did. This match begins a congested push to the June World Cup break, and although Friday’s hosts aren’t high in the table, the Pride must be at their best to get a road result in this fixture. We look back at the series history, compare the two sides, provide our key matchups in the game, and make our final score predictions.
If you’d like to support our independent writing and podcasting efforts, we’d love to have you as a subscriber or donor over at our Buy Me a Coffee site.
Here’s how Episode 119 went down:
0:15 – We open the show with a little banter about the Pride in the international break and the USWNT’s series vs. Japan.
9:03 – The mailbagbox features questions via both eletronic mail and social media. We welcome all modes of delivery.
19:59 – The Pride travel to Louisville to face Racing. They’ve never won in Kentucky, but we inform them how to do so.
-
Orlando City2 weeks agoOrlando City vs. San Jose Earthquakes: Final Score 4-0 as Lions Blank Quakes in Griezmann’s Debut
-
Orlando City2 weeks agoOrlando City vs. San Jose Earthquakes: Preview, How to Watch, TV Info, Live Stream, Lineups, Match Thread, and More
-
Orlando City2 weeks agoOrlando City vs. San Jose Earthquakes: Five Takeaways
-
Lion Links2 weeks agoLion Links: 7/23/26
-
Orlando Pride1 week agoOrlando Pride vs. Chicago Stars FC: Preview, How to Watch, TV Info, Live Stream, Lineups, Match Thread, and More
-
Orlando City1 week agoOrlando City vs. Nashville SC: Final Score 1-0 as Spicer’s Goal Sinks League Leaders
-
Orlando City1 week agoOrlando City vs. Nashville SC: Preview, How to Watch, TV Info, Live Stream, Lineups, Match Thread, and More
-
Orlando City1 week agoOrlando City vs. Nashville SC: Five Takeaways

