Orlando City
Orlando City vs. FC Cincinnati: Five Takeaways
Here’s what we learned from Orlando’s road win against FC Cincinnati.
How about that?! Orlando City capped off a stretch of taking seven points from three games by going into TQL Stadium and handing FC Cincinnati its first home loss of the season. It might not have been the best game OCSC has ever played, but the Lions did enough to get by the Supporters’ Shield leaders and now sit third in the East on goal difference with a two-point lead on the Columbus Crew in fourth.
What follows are my five main thoughts from a massive win up in Ohio.
Living on the Edge
The two biggest moments of the match involved some extremely fine margins. Cincy had the ball in the back of the net after a mere seven minutes and it was looking like a long night for the Lions. The offside flag came up and saved Orlando’s bacon, but it was an extremely tight decision. Frankly, if it had been called a goal on the field I don’t know if there would have been enough to overturn it. Then, when it came to Facundo Torres’ goal, Ramiro Enrique somehow managed to keep the ball from crossing the end line, though I have no idea how. He managed it though, and the two big breaks of the game went Orlando’s way in the end.
Injury Bug Makes an Appearance
You can’t make this stuff up. On the same day that Orlando sold Ercan Kara, the most capable backup striker on the team, Duncan McGuire went off injured just 27 minutes into the game. There were more scares to come when Pedro Gallese went down holding his groin mere moments after McGuire exited the field. Fortunately, he was able to continue, as was Robin Jansson after spending several minutes being attended to in the second half. Still, all three incidents served as reminders of how fragile the Lions’ depth is in certain areas, particularly with Kara now across the pond and Antonio Carlos out injured. Health is going to be something to keep a keen eye on moving forward.
Ugly But Effective
The move leading to Torres’ goal was a thing of beauty, and he showed great composure to fire the ball home when it would have been easy for his eyes to light up and result in a rushed chance. While Orlando had a few other bright moments aside from that, it wasn’t the prettiest display of attacking soccer the Lions have ever put together. Once Junior Urso, Mikey Halliday, and Kyle Smith came on for the final 20 minutes (accounting for stoppage time), OCSC’s tactics became downright Machiavellian. Time-wasting, injury-milking, and parking the bus were all in full effect, but it worked and Orlando held onto its lead in the face of increasingly intense pressure from FCC. Sometimes you need to win ugly, and the Lions certainly showed they’re capable of doing that in this game.
Lions Lose Cool Late
The employment of those dark arts led to the game really devolving after roughly the 80th minute mark. Things got more physical by the minute, yellow cards were shown to both teams with increasing frequency, and nearly four minutes of time were lost while Aaron Boupendza had a forearm to Wilder Cartagena’s face reviewed for possible violent conduct. Things finally came to a head in the 94th minute, when Cartagena was shown a straight red card for a scuffle that saw him lead with his head when…discussing things with a Cincy player. That means he won’t be available for a game against Columbus that has absolutely huge implications. A win would give the Lions some extra breathing room as they try to navigate a fiendishly difficult run-in, but it’ll be a difficult outing against a good Crew team without Wilder.
Torres Stays Hot
Facundo Torres is continuing to come on strong as we approach the business end of the season. He’s got four goals and an assist in the four games following the break for Leagues Cup, and while he wasn’t at his most prolific Saturday night, he was still plenty involved and contributed two key passes, drew three fouls, and delivered 90% of his passes to their intended target. The most important stat was his match-winning goal, and the Lions are going to need him to be a difference maker as the season draws to a close. He seems to be mimicking last season’s trick of saving his best performances for the end of the season, but other guys are going to need to step up as well. For now though, let’s bask in another match-winning turn on the stage from El Cuervo.
What were your thoughts on a big win up in Ohio? Don’t hesitate to say your piece down in the comments. Vamos Orlando!
Orlando City
How Orlando City’s Offense Stacks Up Against What Atlanta Does Defensively
How Orlando City has performed against teams playing with three or four defenders, and how that may influence the playoff game against Atlanta United.
The most famous quote about real estate is that “there are three things that matter in property: location, location, location.” Soccer coaches also like to think in threes, especially when it comes to points, but for a soccer coach, the three things that matter might be the rhyming triplet “formation, formation, formation,” as that is where they will have the biggest influence on every game that their team plays.
Throughout his tenure as head coach, Óscar Pareja has preferred to use a 4-2-3-1 as his formation (fbref.com’s lineup data shows that the Lions primarily played a 4-2-3-1 in 65% of their MLS matches this season, and 79% of their MLS matches during the last three seasons). The Lions have lined up in a 4-2-3-1 during each of their last 14 games, and my confidence level is strong to quite strong (can you believe Meet the Parents came out 24 years ago?) that they will do so once again on Sunday when they host Atlanta United.
Atlanta United also prefers to deploy a 4-2-3-1, but was less consistent than Orlando City this season during MLS play, as evidenced by the chart below that shows how Atlanta lined up this season:
I am relying on the coders at Opta for their evaluation of the formation, as I do not watch a lot of Atlanta United matches (sounds terrible), but though Atlanta primarily played with four defenders in more than two-thirds of its matches, during the last two matches it played a 3-5-2, the only two matches all season in which interim coach Rob Valentino rolled out that formation. I suspect that the formation change was related partially to playing Inter Miami and trying to defend the Herons’ dynamic offense and partially due to an injury suffered by defender Brooks Lennon in the first game of that series. So, while Atlanta primarily played four in the back for most of the season, there is a good chance it will roll with what worked against Florida’s second-best MLS team when it plays Florida’s best MLS team this weekend.
Now, if you want to read more about Atlanta, then you can read our match preview, which will drop Sunday morning, but I want to look at how Orlando did against teams that play similar styles. Looking only at MLS games, the table below shows how Orlando City performed against different back line structures this season (the left side is how the Lions’ opponents lined up, the right side is how Orlando City performed against opponents in those formations):
Orlando City earned slightly more points per game — the stat that matters most — against teams that played four in the back, but the Lions had a better average goal differential when teams played three in the back. Atlanta will likely deploy one of those two formations. In both games against Orlando City this season, Sunday’s visitors went with a 4-2-3-1, but as mentioned earlier, they used three in the back in each of their last two matches, so it really could be either.
Soccer is not like baseball, where players primarily stay in the same spot throughout the game, so some of these stats have to be taken with a grain of salt, as players are not always rigidly in the same position throughout a match. A team may also primarily play with four in the back but switch to three when chasing a game, or five when trying to protect against a late goal.
That said, using the data around Orlando City’s opponents’ general formations, here are the attacking groups who played the most frequently against four defenders during the 24 MLS games where Opta coded the opponents as using a defensive group of four:
It is a little ominous that the main starting group, shown in row one, has played 666 MLS minutes against back lines of four this season, but do I like that green goal differential of +8 in those minutes, which is a strong +1.08 per 90 minutes. I like that goal differential more than I like all the things that Cardi B, Bad Bunny, and J Balvin like on their song that is creatively named “I Like It.” Coincidentally, when people ask me what I think about that song, I say, “I like it.” I am very creative.
If we look at the lineups that Orlando City has used against back lines of three defenders then there are some pretty major differences in personnel groupings, but it must be noted that more than half of the games against teams playing three in the back came early in the season, when Ramiro Enrique was unavailable to play. Enrique, my presumed starter at striker, has played fewer than three games’ worth of minutes (265 total) against back lines of three this season, and only 28 minutes with the main starting group, which ranks 13th among all the attacking lineups for minutes played against three defenders. That group scored one goal in their 28 minutes together though, for a robust 3.21 goals-scored-per-90-minutes average.
While the team as a whole has been successful against three-man back lines, I do not expect any of the lineups shown in the table below to play more than a few minutes together this weekend, though the first row and the last row are strong groups and had a lot of success.
I am sure that all week long the Orlando City coaching staff has been going back and forth on whether it is more likely that Atlanta reverts to its most commonly used four in the back, or if the Five Stripes try for three wins in a row with three in the back. I would prefer that Atlanta plays with zero defenders and goalkeeper Brad Guzan wears a blindfold, but I think that is unlikely to be the case.
Even though Atlanta defeated Orlando City both times while in a 4-2-3-1, based on available personnel and recent results, I believe that the team will come out in a 3-5-2 in Inter&Co Stadium in the conference semifinal. Good things come in threes, and Orlando City’s best offensive production this season has been against three defenders, so I am going to be hoping that this continues, and in the third game against Atlanta the Lions grab the three points. Three’s company!
Well, it is a playoff game, so there are no actual points at stake, but you know what I meant.
Vamos Orlando!
Orlando City
Orlando City vs. Atlanta United: Three Keys to Victory
What do the Lions need to do to get a victory to advance to the Eastern Conference final?
Orlando City continues its playoff journey against Atlanta United Sunday at Inter&Co Stadium. The Lions are coming off an emotional penalty shootout win over Charlotte FC in their best-of-three, first-round series. Likewise, Atlanta United stunned everyone by taking out Inter Miami to advance in its own best-of-three matchup. Now, the rivals meet in the Eastern Conference semifinals.
What does Orlando City need to do to get past Atlanta United to advance to the Easter Conference final?
Beat Guzan
Brad Guzan made 16 saves over Atlanta’s three matches against Inter Miami, including seven in the 3-2 win on the road in Game 3. The 40-year-old former USMNT keeper is in excellent form and is a big reason why the Five Stripes are facing Orlando City. Converting chances against Guzan will be crucial to earning a result. There have been times this season when the Lions have struggled to convert their chances. Despite that, the team has done enough offensively to get to this point. Facundo Torres, Martin Ojeda, Duncan McGuire, Ramiro Enrique, and others have contributed and will need to do so this weekend.
Cartagena is Essential
Orlando City lost twice to Atlanta United during the regular season. What is interesting, and perhaps relevant, is that Wilder Cartagena was out for both of those matches. Cartagena was shown a straight red in the match against Minnesota United prior to the first match against Atlanta way back in March. He was shown a yellow card in the match against FC Cincinnati and then served a yellow card accumulation suspension for the final match of the season against Atlanta. Fortunately for Orlando City, Cartagena will be available for the match this weekend. I’ve mentioned before the importance of Cartagena to Orlando City’s success. When he and Cesar Araujo are on the field together, the defense is simply better. Cartagena is frankly one of the better defensive midfielders in MLS. Atlanta scored five goals in the series against Miami, and Orlando will need to keep the visitors from having that kind of offensive success.
Overcome the Past
That darn international break in the middle of the playoffs is something I don’t love. More precisely, I don’t like it because Orlando City often struggles after a break. It would have been nice if Orlando City could have ridden the momentum from the penalty kick victory into the Atlanta match, but that’s not to be. Now is the time for Orlando City to break some bad habits, including turning around its historical lack of success against Atlanta, and tendency to struggle in the first match after a break. Oscar Pareja needs to have the players in the right frame of mind, and the players need to execute the plan. A full house of supporters can also make a difference. Given it’s a Sunday afternoon match, there’s no reason not to pack the house.
That is what I will be looking for Sunday afternoon. Let me know your thoughts in the comments below. Vamos Orlando!
Lion Links
Lion Links: 11/21/24
Marta’s chance to shine in NWSL Championship, NWSL and MLS award winners announced, 2025 SheBelieves Cup details, and more.
How’s it going, Mane Landers? I’ve been spending most of this week plotting out some holiday shopping to make things a little less stressful for myself over the next few weeks. A big weekend filled with Orlando soccer awaits us, so make sure to get any errands or obligations out of the way sooner rather than later. Let’s dive into today’s links!
Spotlight Falls On Marta in NWSL Championship
There are plenty of storylines heading into Saturday’s NWSL Championship between the Orlando Pride and Washington Spirit, including Marta’s opportunity to put an exclamation point on what has been an excellent season for the Pride. Orlando has been enjoying the fruits of its labor this season after a rebuild over the past few years that’s included plenty of change in the City Beautiful. Marta has been a constant, however, enduring some difficult seasons since joining the Pride and adapting her game She’s scored in both of the Pride’s playoff games so far and has a chance to author a storybook ending on Saturday.
Ann-Katrin Berger Named NWSL Goalkeeper of the Year
NJ/NY Gotham FC goalkeeper Ann-Katrin Berger was named 2024 NWSL Goalkeeper of the Year, beating out the Pride’s Anna Moorhouse and Utah Royals FC’s Mandy Haught for the honor. It was Berger’s first year in the NWSL and she’s the first European player to win the award. She only conceded 16 goals across her 22 matches for Gotham this season and was a key reason behind her team’s success. I’m not too surprised that Moorhouse did not win, considering how solid the Pride’s defense was as a whole, but this won’t take anything away from a record-breaking season for her.
Wilfried Nancy Named MLS Coach of the Year
Columbus Crew Head Coach Wilfried Nancy was voted 2024 MLS Coach of the Year after a historic season in which the Crew set club records in both points and goals. The Crew also won the Leagues Cup this summer and their 2024 Concacaf Champions Cup campaign included advancing past Tigres and Monterrey en route to the final. This is Nancy’s first time being named Coach of the Year and he has been a finalist for the award every year since 2021. The Frenchman received 40.02% of the vote, winning the award over Inter Miami’s Gerardo Martino and Colorado Rapids Head Coach Chris Armas.
2025 SheBelieves Cup Details Unveiled
The 10th annual SheBelieves Cup will take place next year and the tournament will return to its usual format where each of the four teams plays each other once. The United States Women’s National Team will host Japan, Colombia, and Australia in February in what should be an exciting tournament. The U.S. will take on Colombia on Feb. 20 in Houston before facing Australia in Arizona on Feb. 23 and finishing the tournament on Feb. 26 against Japan at Snapdragon Stadium in San Diego. These games will also be the first domestic games of 2025 for the USWNT as it prepares to qualify for the 2027 World Cup in Brazil.
Eric Quill Named FC Dallas Head Coach
FC Dallas announced that Eric Quill will become the team’s next head coach. Quill joins Dallas after a great year with New Mexico United that included trips to the U.S. Open Cup quarterfinals and USL Championship Western Conference semifinals. It’s also a reunion of sorts for Quill, as he previously coached North Texas SC and was named USL League One Coach of the Year with the club in 2019. Dallas missed out on the playoffs this season, with Peter Luccin coaching the team on an interim basis after the firing of Nico Estevez in June.
Free Kicks
- District of Columbia Mayor Muriel Bowser challenged Orlando Mayor Buddy Dyer to a bet involving this weekend’s NWSL Championship, with embarrassing lightshows on the line.
- Atlanta United interim head coach Rob Valentino, who was an Orlando City B assistant coach in 2015 and played for the USL Lions, spoke on Atlanta’s Cinderella run this postseason ahead of his team’s clash with Orlando City on Sunday.
- CF Montreal signed Canadian center back Joel Waterman to a contract extension that will keep him with the club through 2027 with an option for 2028 as well.
- D.C. United signed goalkeeper Jordan Farr from the Tampa Bay Rowdies on a two-year deal. Farr had 11 shutouts with the Rowdies this year and joins a D.C. side that declined the contract options for both Tyler Miller and Alex Bono last month.
- American forward Catarina Macario had an assist for Chelsea in a 3-0 win against Celtic in the Women’s Champions League.
- Spanish midfielder Juan Mata joined San Diego FC’s ownership group ahead of the club’s inaugural MLS season next year.
- Costa Rican club Alajuelense, which is the highest-ranked team in Central America, has hired a legal firm regarding FIFA allowing both Pachuca and Club Leon to take part in the 2025 Club World Cup despite having the same owner.
That’s all I have for you this time around. I hope you all have a wonderful Thursday and rest of your week!
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