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How to Win the NWSL Shield

Comparing the Orlando Pride and other 2024 NWSL shield contenders to previous winners.

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Image courtesy of Orlando Pride / Jeremy Reper

“We want to win the shield.”

That was the answer Orlando Pride defender Kerry Abello gave when asked what the team’s goals are for the rest of the 2024 season. She didn’t just stop there, adding that the team wants to win the NWSL championship as well. “We have proved that is our potential and we plan on going for it.”

There is little doubt that the Pride are now the favorites for the shield after defeating the Kansas City Current on the road (while down a player for more than half the game) in their final match before the Olympic break. The shield is the trophy awarded to the team with the highest point total after the regular season, while the NWSL championship is awarded to the team that wins the playoffs.

The shield is often considered a better indicator of best team from a given season, as it requires solid performances over the full season and not the final three games. With 16 matches played and 12 to go, the Pride are the only undefeated team in the league and they boast a three-point lead at the top of the table. Looking at the 10 NWSL shield winners to date, a clear picture emerges on what it takes to turn Orlando’s goal into a reality.

The Pride defeating the other shield hopefuls is a big part of why they’re in such a strong position just past the halfway point in the season. The matches against their peers in the table are sometimes called “six-pointers” because the points gained by the Pride are subsequently lost by their opponents. While Orlando won both road matches against Kansas City and the Washington Spirit, the return home matches against those opponents on Sept. 13 and Oct. 6, respectively, will be just as important as the season gets closer to the end, as will the two matches still to come against defending champion NJ/NY Gotham FC, currently in fourth.

Beyond the big matches, the NWSL is a league known for its parity, and any match can pose a challenge. Take, for example, the 2023 shield-winning San Diego Wave, who were able to claim the trophy with just 37 points, a tally already surpassed the 2024 Pride. In 2023, the gap between the teams at the top and bottom was so small that Orlando missed the playoffs with only six fewer points than the wave, and the last-place Chicago Red Stars were only seven points behind the Pride.

To put the current NWSL season into historical context, the graph below shows the points per match won by each prior shield winner, compared to the Pride, Current, and Spirit this season.

First and foremost, the graph above shows that the 2024 Orlando Pride are on pace to break the record for points in a season. That record was set by the 2018 North Carolina Courage team that earned 57 points en route to winning both the shield and the NWSL championship. Considering that Orlando is on pace to surpass that record, it is impressive that both the Current and the Spirit are almost stride for stride with the Pride and performing better than the average shield-winning squad as well.

Looking at historic shield winners and runners up, the competition in the NWSL is clear. The average gap between first and second place in the table over the past 10 seasons is just five points. In the past three seasons, the league was even closer, with gaps of two, one, and two points from 2021 to 2023, respectively. With four points currently separating first and third position in this season’s table, the trend of tight finishes is likely to continue.

Despite the similar records by the best teams this season, they are each racking up points in different ways. Kansas City has built a reputation based on a high-powered attack and willingness to simply outscore opponents. Orlando, on the other hand, has a defense-first mindset coupled with enough star power from Barbra Banda and Marta to win matches more pragmatically. Washington, for its part, lies somewhere in the middle, neither leading the league in attack nor defense but winning matches nonetheless. Reviewing how past teams won the shield can identify important themes for shield-winning sides, even though it doesn’t guarantee how the current season will play out.

Below, goals scored and conceded per match are plotted for previous shield winners to see how they won their trophies. The 2024 Pride, Current, and Spirit are added to assess the current shield race.

When it comes to attack, the Current are on another level entirely, leading all clubs in goals per match at 2.5. This performance, if it continues, would lead to the highest scoring season in league history. However, the plot once again shows the strength of the NWSL in 2024. Despite a clear offensive leader in Kansas City, the other teams fighting for the 2024 shield are well above average for prior winners and more than capable of scoring enough to win matches.

Between the points, goals, and goals conceded per match, it is the latter where the most clear differentiation can be seen. With only 0.75 goals conceded per match, the Pride’s defensive strength in 2024 is not far behind the best performing defenses in league history. Of their opponents, the Spirit have defended well this season, but not to the level of prior shield winners, and Kansas City is well below the defensive metrics of prior winners. 

In the first 10 seasons of the NWSL’s existence, only the Seattle Reign in 2015 conceded more than one goal per match on average and won the shield. Out of all that have done it, four led the league in both goals scored and fewest conceded. Three additional teams boasted the best defense, but only one team — again, Seattle in 2015 — scored the most goals without having the best defense, showing the limits to an attack-first approach.

Taken together, the prior seasons of the NWSL show that having a strong defense has been the most reliable path to an NWSL shield. Compared to the previous winners, the Orlando Pride have one of the best defenses in league history. They pair this strong defense with a potent attack exceeding the output of a typical NWSL shield-winning side. This combination has the team in first place in the table and on pace to win the shield with one of the highest point tallies of all time. 

Nothing can be taken for granted, however; Orlando’s opponents this season are setting records of their own and plan to push the Pride to the final weeks of the season. The Pride just need to keep their focus on the match in front of them. So far, they have shown the talent and the belief required of a shield-winning team, and the way to secure the trophy is to keep playing they way they did to get here.

Orlando Pride

Orlando Pride Sign Midfielder Morgan Gautrat to New Contract

The Pride have signed defensive midfielder Morgan Gautrat through 2025 with a mutual option for 2026.

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Image courtesy of Orlando Pride / Jeremy Reper

The Orlando Pride announced this afternoon that the club has signed midfielder Morgan Gautrat to a new contract. The deal runs through the 2025 NWSL season with a mutual option for 2026.

“Morgan has come in and proven to be a great addition to our club. She has quickly become someone that our younger players can look to for guidance and advice off the pitch, while also putting in strong, consistent performances on it,” Pride Vice President of Soccer Operations and Sporting Director Haley Carter said in a club press release. “Morgan knows how to win at the club and international level and has helped bring that knowledge and professionalism into our locker room. We are very excited to have Morgan with us for the future.”

The Pride acquired Gautrat in a trade with the Kansas City Current on Jan. 11. In exchange for the veteran defensive midfielder and $50,000 in allocation money, the Pride sent a 2024 international spot to the Current.

Gautrat has made 14 appearances in all competitions this season for the Pride (13 regular season and three NWSL x Liga MX Femenil Summer Cup), with nine starts and recorded 711 minutes. She started alongside Angelina when Haley McCutcheon was at right back, but has split time with the Brazilian in recent weeks as both players have spent time on the injured list.

“I am so excited to be staying here with the Orlando Pride for the next couple of years. What we have here and the culture that is being created is something so special and I am thrilled to be a part of it,” Gautrat said in the club’s press release. “Growing up playing here in Florida and now playing here professionally has only solidified that Orlando is home. I am grateful for the opportunity to continue to represent this badge and will work as hard as I can to help the club achieve all of its goals.”

Gautrat was the first overall pick of the 2015 NWSL Draft by the Houston Dash out of the University of Virginia. She went on to play for the Chicago Red Stars, French side Olympique Lyonnais, and the Current before joining the Pride.

Internationally, Gautrat represented the United States at the 2010 U-17 FIFA Women’s World Cup and the 2012 FIFA U-20 Women’s World Cup. The St. Simons Island, GA, native made her senior team debut on June 15, 2013, making 88 appearances for her country with eight goals and 11 assists. She was part of the 2015 and 2019 United States teams that won back-to-back World Cup titles.

What It Means for Orlando

The Pride spent the last couple of years in a full rebuild, replacing aging veterans with young players. They narrowly missed out on the playoffs in 2023, spurring the feeling that they could compete this year. For this reason, they brought in several veterans to fill out the lineup, including Gautrat.

While Gautrat hasn’t been a regular starter for the Pride, the depth she provides the team has been valuable, especially when Angelina was injured. She’s currently behind Angelina and McCutcheon on the depth chart, but will slide into the starting role when either is injured, McCutcheon is needed on the back line, or when Angelina is away on international duty with Brazil.

The midfielder has had some trouble with injuries the past few years, contributing to her absence from the national team and her trade from Kansas City. Those problems have arisen at times this year when she suffered a lower leg injury and a concussion. However, she’s been healthy for most of the season and provides a veteran presence in a young locker room, making her a valuable part of the 2025 squad.

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The Pride’s Offense is Alive but Recently Has Not Thrived

An evaluation of the Pride’s offensive performance in their three games since the NWSL resumed play after the Olympic break.

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Image courtesy of Orlando Pride / Jeremy Reper

The Pride keep winning, and former New York Jets coach Herm Edwards said it best: “you play to win the game. Hello!” Whether the result looks like free-flowing and beautiful soccer or brute force, rough-and-tumble soccer that looks more like (American) football, in the end all that matters is the scoreboard, and the Pride are still undefeated and in the midst of their second six-game winning streak of the season.

That said, since the Pride came back to NWSL play after the Olympic break, they have not quite looked as dominant offensively as they did pre-Olympics. The defense remains rock solid, with zero goals given up in all three games since the return (note: zero goals in the last three games and only one goal given up in the last seven NWSL games, wow!), but the offense looks slightly off, or as off as a team can be that scores in and wins three straight games. Are these champagne problems, or is there something bubbling up that will need ironing out as the calendar turns to autumn and playoff season nears? I do not want to be the male version of Debbie Downer (Andrew Alarmist? Hopefully there will be no need to workshop this any further.), but I think it is worth exploring.

Let’s take a look at some numbers for the Pride that illustrate how the offensive performance during the most recent three games looks as compared to prior games. In the chart below, taken from data provided on fbref.com and excluding opposition own goals, are the totals for the first 16 games of the season in the first row, the last three of those first 16 games in the second row, and then the most recent three games in the third row.

With the exception of the percentage of shots the Pride put on target, games 17-19 were worse across the board in every other category when compared to the three games immediately prior to the Olympic break and to the first 16 games overall. Worse is a relative term, because if you compare the “worse” performances in those most recent three games to the rest of the NWSL throughout the full season, the Pride’s performance compares favorably in many categories, even though when compared to their own earlier season performances it seems like a downturn.

Compared to every other NWSL team’s full season metrics, the Pride’s last three games are demonstrably better (blue highlighted cells are where the Pride’s output is better) than most other teams in goals, shots on target, and expected goals. The Pride are worse in the conversion stats, goals as a percentage of shots and as a percentage of shots on target, and the number of shots they are expected to take per goal (based on expected goals scored). This is the part in every article where I add my view on expected goals; I think this data is useful in terms of looking at whether the Pride are taking shots from dangerous locations, but I do not actually put a lot of faith into whether a goal really should or should not be “expected” from that location.

If you do the PhD-level mathematics of counting the blue cells as a percentage of the total cells, the Pride are better in 47.4% of the cells above, which ranks them seventh among all teams. This is, of course, not an even comparison, as it is three games for the Pride as compared to every other team’s full 19 games, but the point is that even during a recent “down” period for the Pride’s offense the team is still in the top half of the 14 team NWSL and is performing better than all but three teams in the offensive category that matters most — goals per game. And the Pride are performing better than every team in the league in another somewhat significant measure, the league standings. Take that, Andrew Alarmist.

Alas, we cannot abrogate (SAT word alert) Andrew Alarmist just yet. We still need to take a look at Barbra Banda and what has been going on with her recently, as she has zero goals or assists in each of the last three games. Back in July I wrote an article about the historic pace Banda was on, and it is important to preface a look at the recent “poor performance” by Banda by remembering that with 17 goal contributions (12 goals, 5 assists) she is already tied for the 11th best single season in NWSL history, and with her next goal or assist she will move into a tie for 10th. If we look at the same data for Banda as we did for the full team earlier, we can see that her performance mirrors the Pride’s, which should not be surprising, considering of how much of a focal point she is for their offense.

Clearly the zeroes in the goals categories stand out as compared to the other numbers, but the big takeaway for me was really was around the quality of her shots. This is where I think expected goals really shines, because like a standardized test, it is the same for everyone, and so you can see that the locations of Banda’s shots pre-Olympics (918 minutes over 12 games) were much better than they have been recently (257 minutes over 3 games).

Banda is averaging nearly the same number of shots per 90 minutes as she was pre-Olympics (5.3 shots per 90 mins post-Olympics vs. 5.8 shots per 90 mins pre-Olympics), so the fact that her expected goals per game in the post-Olympics games is half as high indicates that the shots she has taken recently have been from more acute angles and/or farther away from the goal. Correspondingly, her shots on target percentage have dropped, which should not be a surprise based on the expected goals evaluation that the shots she has been taking are from more difficult locations.

On the flipside of the lack of goal contributions by Banda though is, once again, that the team has won all three of its recent games, even with her not scoring. Marta has now scored six goals on the season and Adriana and Summer Yates both have five, making the Pride the only team in the NWSL with four players with at least five goals scored this season. It is always better to have multiple threats, and the Pride are now rolling out four players that force the opposition to game plan against.

To go back to my question earlier, I think that it is indeed a champagne problem for the Pride that since the Olympic break they are winning games by close scores as opposed to walloping their opponents. Bill James, one of the originators of analytics in baseball, felt that run differential was more important than a team’s actual record in terms of determining who the best team in baseball really was, and if we apply this same concept to soccer, we would look at goal differential as the corresponding measure. The Pride are +25 thus far this season, 39% better than the team ranked next behind them and on track for one of the best seasons in league history, if not the best.

To give myself a little bit of credit, I think it was fair to look at the recent games with a discerning eye, but if Julie Doyle was not offside by inches against Gotham, that game is 3-0 instead of 2-0, and Banda also had multiple shots that were cleared off the line against the Red Stars, so that game could have been a multiple-goal victory as well.

To go back to the baseball well one more time, sometimes the Moneyball idea that you can evaluate sports by only looking at the numbers can be deceiving. You have to watch the games too. The Pride have clearly been the better team during all three of their recent games and Banda has been a force to be reckoned with as well. They just have been inches away from showing it both on the field and in the box scores.

I expect that a positive regression to the mean is coming for the Pride’s offense, hopefully as soon as Friday night in the Pride’s rematch with the Current!

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Orlando Pride vs. Chicago Red Stars: Final Score 1-0 as Pride Win Sixth Straight

The Orlando Pride beat the Chicago Red Stars 1-0, extending their unbeaten run and winning streak.

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Image courtesy of Orlando Pride

The Orlando Pride (14-0-5, 47 points) continued their unbeaten run and winning streak by defeating the Chicago Red Stars (7-10-2, 23 points) 1-0 at SeatGreek Stadium in Bridgeview, IL. Marta scored the game’s only goal in the 37th minute with a laser from outside of the box.

Pride Head Coach Seb Hines deployed the same lineup that beat NJ/NY Gotham FC 2-0 on Sept. 1. The back line in front of Anna Moorhouse was Kerry Abello, Kylie Strom, Emily Sams, and Cori Dyke. Angelina and Haley McCutcheon were the defensive midfielders behind Adriana, Marta, and Summer Yates with Barbra Banda up top.

This game was similar to the one between the two teams last year in the same stadium. The Pride dominated the game in every way from start to finish with the hosts rarely getting a chance at goal. The difference was last year the Pride were unable to convert and the Red Stars scored on a counter attack to steal three points. This time it was the Pride who scored the lone goal and took home the win.

“We reminded the players of the heartbreak of last year where I think we recorded maybe 25 shots at goal. Controlled the whole game, but fell short with a 1-0 defeat,” Hines said about his pregame message. “Just making sure that we scored the first goal was really important tonight. Having the calmness to play and be patient and create more opportunities.”

The Pride created the first chance in the fourth minute when Camryn Biegalski blocked Abello’s cross out for a corner kick. The ensuing set piece was headed out, but Chicago was unable to clear. After Banda tried to create something, it ended up with Marta on the left side of the box. The Pride captain was aiming for the far post but missed wide.

The second chance for the Pride came in the sixth minute when Banda made a long run into the Red Stars third of the field before playing Marta forward. Marta played the ball back for Adriana at the top of the box and the Brazilian laid it off for her club and national teammate Angelina. Taking a touch to create space, Angelina sent her shot into the arms of Chicago goalkeeper Alyssa Naeher.

In the 13th minute, Adriana made a move in the box to beat Taylor Malham before going down. There was a brief break in the action as the video assistant referee took a look but didn’t determine the contact was worthy of a penalty.

When play resumed, a cross into the box was cleared by Natalia Kuikka. However, it went right to Banda. The Pride strike settled the ball before shooting, enabling Kuikka to close her down and block the shot.

Abello fouled Jenna Bike in the 19th minute, giving the Red Stars a set piece. Swanson and Julia Grosso stood over the ball with Swanson taking it. Her free kick went through several players, took a brief touch by Angelina, and landed at the foot of Bike. The midfielder was open for a shot but missed the target.

Banda received a nice ball across the field from Yates in the 22nd minute and used her speed to sprint past Malham before shooting for the far post. Naeher was unable to reach the shot, but it skipped just wide.

The Pride had another good chance in the 28th minute when McCutcheon played a great ball for Adriana behind the back line. The midfielder caught up to the ball before it crossed the end line and played a pass for Banda in the six-yard box. Unfortunately, it was a bit too far for the striker.

In the 37th minute. Marta ensured the good chances the Pride created weren’t wasted. Adriana was fouled by Jameese Joseph, winning a free kick in the opposing third. Bike was the first to the ball, but her clearance attempt only went to Marta near the top of the box. The Pride captain took a touch inside before sending a rocket into the bottom far corner of the goal to give her team a 1-0 lead.

“I read a little bit about the situation from the beginning. You know, they were giving us a lot of space to turn, to look up, and I was looking for this situation,” Marta said about her goal. “Have the space and have the time to take a shot. And then I have a little bit of luck, but I was with this in my mind all the time. If I have the chance, I’m going to try it.”

In the first minute of stoppage time, Marta made a run towards the end line before playing it to the top of the box. Yates was unable to get in position to shoot and Adriana left it for Angelina behind her. It was a good attempt by the defensive midfielder but went just wide.

At halftime, the Pride had more possession (63%-37%), shots (7-1), shots on target (2-0), corner kicks (6-0), crosses (17-2), and better passing accuracy (80%-69%).

The Pride nearly created a chance in the 48th minute when McCutcheon took the ball away from Hannah Anderson in the Chicago third. She touched the ball forward for Banda who carried it into the box. Kuikka did well to stand her ground and made a quality challenge, knocking the ball away from the Pride striker.

The Pride were living dangerously as the game neared the hour mark. In the 54th minute, Malham sent a ball forward into the box that was missed by Sams. Bike was making a run behind Abello but couldn’t get on the end of it.

A minute later, a poor pass from Dyke to Angelina was intercepted by Joseph. The forward played a give-and-go with Bike, sending her into the box. Fortunately, a heavy touch resulted in her fouling Abello and ending the attack.

In the 57th minute, a poor clearance attempt by Malham gave the Pride a corner kick. The set piece ended up with Abello, who found Banda to her left. The striker took Biegalski to the end line before trying to beat Naeher from a very tight angle. While the shot didn’t have much of a chance, Naeher knocked it out for a corner kick. The Pride couldn’t create anything from the ensuing set piece, enabling the Red Stars to clear.

Hines made three changes in the 61st minute. Carson Pickett, Julie Doyle, and Evelina Duljan came into the game for Abello, Adriana, and Yates.

A Pride throw-in in the 64th minute turned into Chicago’s first shot on target. Cari Roccaro and Angelina collided going for a loose ball, which ended up at the feet of Swanson. The Pride had kept Swanson quiet in the game, but the Red Stars leader tried to make something happen with a long shot. However, she sent it straight to Moorhouse and it was an easy save for the Pride goalkeeper.

Duljan looked to make her presence known in the 69th minute when she won possession from Biegalski in the Chicago third of the field. Marta took the ball and played it between the legs of Kuikka to Banda in the box. After conceding possession, Biegalski came back to challenge Banda, resulting in both players requiring medical attention. Banda was able to continue, but Biegalski had to leave the game.

During the stoppage, Hines made his fourth substitution. In a like-for-like change, Morgan Gautrat came on for Angelina. It was a homecoming for Gautrat, who spent six years with the Red Stars from 2017-2022.

The Pride nearly doubled their lead in the 75th minute when Doyle found Pickett making an overlapping run. The left back’s cross found the head of Banda, who tried to send it over Naeher and into the corner of the goal. Her header was over Naeher, but Kuikka was able to head the ball off the goal line and onto the roof of the net.

 In the 78th minute, Kuikka headed a Marta throw-in for Banda over the end line for a Pride corner kick. The set piece by Pickett found the head of Banda and the redirection was on target, but Malham cleared it off the line. Banda got her head to the clearance for another attempt on goal and it was cleared off the line again, this time by Tatumn Milazzo.

Pickett found Banda in the box in the 81st minute, this time between three defenders. Anderson ended up marking the striker and Banda turned her to get a shot off. However, she was unable to get over the ball, sending it over the crossbar.

The Red Stars nearly had a breakaway in the 89th minute when Chardonnay Curran sent Ludmila between Sams and Strom. It was a race between Ludmila and Moorhouse with the Pride goalkeeper getting there first. The two collided and Moorhouse required attention but was able to continue.

Chicago took their second shot on target in the fourth minute of stoppage time after Gautrat pulled Curran down and was booked. Swanson’s free kick into the box was cleared by Pickett but back to Swanson with nearly everyone in the Pride box. The attacker dribbled past Gautrat and took a long-distance shot that went right to Moorhouse, who made an easy save.

The Red Stars continued to push everyone forward in an attempt to get a last-second equalizer, but the Pride were able to hold them off and secure the 1-0 win.

It was a dominant performance and a deserved three points as the Pride ended the game with more possession (61%-39%), shots (14-3), shots on target (4-2), corner kicks (12-0), crosses (28-5), and better passing accuracy (79%-67%).

“Every game is a challenge, right? Obviously, Chicago trying to keep themselves in the playoff positions. We obviously want to keep ourselves at the top of the table. So every game, there’s always something on the line,” Hines said about the game. “I thought first half we did really well. I thought we got ourselves in really good positions to try and score the goal, but fell short. Obviously Marta, unbelievable finish and goal, and that just epitomizes her performance today. I thought she was tremendous. And then, same as a lot of other games, you know, backs against the wall late on in the game, Chicago trying to push to get an equalizer, but the team stayed strong and managed to get the three points over the line.”

The clean sheet is the Pride’s 10th of the season, extending their team record. They’re now on three behind the league record, held jointly by the 2017 North Carolina Courage and 2021 Portland Thorns. Moorhouse has been in net for all 10, putting her one behind the league record, set by Adriana Franch in 2017 and matched by Casey Murphy in 2021.

“I say every week, it’s not just the goalkeeper and the backline, it takes everyone,” Hines said about the 10 clean sheets. “But there’s some really brave moments. There’s players getting tight, not allowing the cross to come in, and then if that does happen, then getting first contact, set in contact, and then having the calmness to play out of pressure as well. I think it’s all important elements to our game. But most importantly, I think you have to build a foundation with your defensive structure. I think, historically, Orlando hasn’t always had that, and so we’ve really pinpointed that we need to be defensively solid and not give the opponent too many opportunities, which the players have done extremely well all season long.”

“I just want to soak that in because last year, it felt like we were so close and sometimes it would just, we were not quite there. And I think that this year, we have been so incredibly focused, we’ve been so incredibly organized, and we just have the grit and the willingness to grind out wins and shutouts and all things,” McCutcheon added. “And I’m just incredibly proud of that stat much more than scoring goals. I think that just speaks volumes to our team and our character.”

The win extends the Pride’s unbeaten run to 20 games, dating back to the final regular season game last season. The run ties the league record including playoffs, matching the Washington Spirit’s 20-game unbeaten run in 2021 and 2022.

Additionally, the Pride are now on a six-game win streak, their second six-game win streak this season. They’re now only three wins shy of the single-season record for wins a season, currently held by 2018 Courage.

Their 47 points place them six points clear of the Spirit for the league’s top spot with seven games left. They’ve already clinched a playoff spot and are looking to seal the NWSL Shield, which includes the top seed in the postseason.


That quest continues Friday night when the Pride return home to face the Kansas City Current.

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