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Orlando City’s 2024 Offensive Blueprint (So Far)

An evaluation of how Orlando City has been trying to score goals in 2024.

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4 months ago

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

Jay-Z released one of my all-time favorite albums, The Blueprint, in 2001. With apologies to him, and his track on that album called “Girls, Girls, Girls,” what we as fans want are goals, goals, goals, and we want our team to score as many of them as possible. In this article I will explore Orlando City’s attacking style — some might say their attacking…blueprint — thus far this season and evaluate how the Lions have been trying create those goals we do adore.

All right, now that we have pushed the limit on puns and wordplay about that album, let’s look at some numbers related to Orlando City’s offense. First, let’s start with the direction of play, because Orlando City has a very clear plan of attack in 2024, and it involves the left side. According to the tracking from whoscored.com, Orlando City attacks down the left side on nearly half of its possessions.

No team in MLS favors one side of the field as frequently as Orlando City’s 45% on the left side, and it is interesting that it is so high down the left because Facundo Torres, generally regarded as the squad’s most creative and dangerous player, plays most frequently on the right side of the field. I think there are three primary reasons for the left side favoritism:

  • Iván Angulo is one of the fastest players in MLS and spends most of his time on the left side of the field, so the team tries to get him into space so he can use that speed to get the defense on its heels.
  • Orlando City has three left-footed players who love a cross so much I am surprised they play for Orlando City and not Vatican City. Rafael Santos averages 5.1 crosses per 90 mins (27th in MLS), Nico Lodeiro averages 5.6 (16th), and Martín Ojeda averages 9.61 (second). Ojeda has been playing more centrally recently, but he still drifts to the left frequently. Lodeiro does the same, and Santos nearly exclusively stays on the left side. All three of them are crossing machines.
  • Torres loves to cut back into the middle from his normal slot on the right side of the field, and so crossing it from left to right gives him space to operate, as the defense has to recover on a switch of field, and a scrambling defense against a talented attacking player is advantageous for Orlando City. Torres is fifth in MLS in receiving passes from 10+ yards away in the offensive area of the field, and his per-90-minute average for those receptions has increased from 2022 (8.4) to 2023 (9.8) to 2024 (11.4). Additionally, here is Facu’s shot chart for the year, courtesy of fotmob.com, and you can see that of his seven non-penalty-kick goals, all of them come from the right half of the field (his most recent goal against New England is highlighted with the red circle, because after a few minutes I gave up on trying to figure out how to show this without having one highlighted):

Expanding a little bit off of the direction of play, but returning to the second item in the list above, Orlando City leads all of MLS with an average of 21.32 crosses per 90 minutes. The other 28 MLS teams average 16.6 crosses per 90 minutes, so Orlando City is crossing the ball 28% more frequently than the average MLS team. The Lions have a physical presence in Duncan McGuire in the middle, so this makes sense to target him with crosses into the 18, and in fact the team is fourth in MLS this season with an average of 2.4 completed crosses into the penalty areas per 90 minutes.

It is not just Duncan though, of the 36 goals Orlando City players have scored this season (the other three are own goals), nine of them have come on a header and by eight different players. That 25% of goals scored on a header is the highest percentage for any Orlando City team in fbref.com’s tracking (goes back to 2018) and ranks the team only behind Austin FC’s 29% in MLS this season.

All crosses do not necessarily end in headers, but nearly all headers come from crosses, and the irony of the fact that Orlando City is scoring a high percentage of its goals from headers is that the Lions rank, to use a technical term, DFL in the league in percentage of aerial balls won (40.1%, and the next lowest is 45.4%). It’s kind of like the tagline to those Most Interesting Man in the World beer commercials from Dos Equis — the Lions don’t often win aerial balls, but when they do, they score goals.

Flipping from balls in the air to balls that are generally played on the ground, according to the data tracked by Opta on fbref.com, Orlando City is seventh in MLS in completed through balls per 90 minutes with an average of 1.5. The Lions have been in the top third of MLS in four of the last five seasons in this statistic, as this is clearly a staple of an Óscar Pareja-coached squad.

If you look at the individual MLS players who are leading the league in completing these dangerous balls, it is a veritable who’s who of creative players across the league. Say what you will about Luis Muriel, and I wrote a whole article about him a few weeks ago, but his passing ability is excellent, and it did not surprise me at all to see him high on this list and among the other well-known names. Here are the top 15, which also includes Lodeiro, among players who have played at least 500 minutes:

I touched on the left side focus earlier and how Angulo’s speed plays a large role in why the team plays more frequently down the left side, and that comes into play here as well with Orlando City’s predilection for playing through balls. It is also now time for Dagur Dan Thórhallsson to enter the chat, because he is just as much of a through ball target as Ruan was for several years in making speed runs up the right side of the field, and he ranks 24th among defenders in goal-creating actions per 90 minutes (0.24). Coincidentally, he also ranks 24th in shot-creating actions per 90 minutes (2.0). McGuire is also a target for these through balls as he makes excellent shallow runs behind defenders to then run onto balls played in front of him, and Ramiro Enrique is also pacey enough to do the same.

The completed crosses and through balls, as well as the fact that Orlando City is in the top 10 in total completed passes per 90 minutes, contribute to the team leading MLS with 10.1 completed passes into the penalty area per 90 minutes. The rest of MLS averages only 8.4, so Orlando City’s offensive tactics puts the team 20% higher than the rest of the league in terms of its frequency of completing passes to teammates inside the box.

Now, what teams want are goals, not completed passes into the penalty area, but you can see what the Lions are trying to do offensively by looking what these numbers reveal about how they are directing their attacking play.

Orlando City has a burner on the left (Angulo) and also several left-footed players who have the ability to whip in a dangerous cross (Ojeda, Lodeiro, Santos), so the focus is more on going down the left than the middle or the right. The Lions do have a fullback (Thórhallsson) with pace on the right too, so he is a target when they go right, and as a former midfielder, he has the ability to create offense coming forward, so he does with great frequency. The best finisher (Torres) is out on the right but loves to cut back to his left, and this year there is a higher focus on getting him the ball in space as opposed to having him leading the buildup.

Three players (Ojeda, Lodeiro, Muriel) are sharing the 10 role and releasing through balls to the outside and inside threats, and McGuire and Enrique are essentially serving as soccer versions of a basketball rim runner, attacking the goalmouth and trying to score in any way possible.

It all sounds great on paper, but for much of the season the offense was sputtering — so much so that Orlando City has scored more goals in the last seven games (20, 2.9 goals per game) than it did in its first 18 games (19, 1.1 goals per game). The first half of the season contained several issues that I believe contributed heavily to the low goal-scoring output, with several injuries, games missed for international duty, and competing in Concacaf Champions Cup at the same time as the start of the regular season, forcing squad rotation and players playing outside of their normal positions.

There was also just some poor play during those early months as well, some self-inflicted poor performances. I believe that Orlando City has found something though in the last few weeks, and while the Lions may not score 2.9 goals per game for the rest of the season, I think that what we have seen recently is a settled team of players who know their roles and understand the strategy, and who have the ability to execute that strategy.

Just 17 years after it was released, Jay-Z’s The Blueprint was selected by the Library of Congress for preservation in the United States National Recording Registry for being “culturally, historically, or aesthetically significant.” Let’s hope that 17 years from now, in 2041, we are all looking back fondly on what became an athletically significant 2024 season for Orlando City.

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Orlando City

How Orlando City’s Offense Stacks Up Against What Atlanta Does Defensively

How Orlando City has performed against teams playing with three or four defenders, and how that may influence the playoff game against Atlanta United.

Published

10 hours ago

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November 21, 2024

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

The most famous quote about real estate is that “there are three things that matter in property: location, location, location.” Soccer coaches also like to think in threes, especially when it comes to points, but for a soccer coach, the three things that matter might be the rhyming triplet “formation, formation, formation,” as that is where they will have the biggest influence on every game that their team plays.

Throughout his tenure as head coach, Óscar Pareja has preferred to use a 4-2-3-1 as his formation (fbref.com’s lineup data shows that the Lions primarily played a 4-2-3-1 in 65% of their MLS matches this season, and 79% of their MLS matches during the last three seasons). The Lions have lined up in a 4-2-3-1 during each of their last 14 games, and my confidence level is strong to quite strong (can you believe Meet the Parents came out 24 years ago?) that they will do so once again on Sunday when they host Atlanta United.

Atlanta United also prefers to deploy a 4-2-3-1, but was less consistent than Orlando City this season during MLS play, as evidenced by the chart below that shows how Atlanta lined up this season:

The purpose of this image is a table to show how Atlanta United lined up in 2024 (mostly in a 4-2-3-1 but also in one of six other formations).

I am relying on the coders at Opta for their evaluation of the formation, as I do not watch a lot of Atlanta United matches (sounds terrible), but though Atlanta primarily played with four defenders in more than two-thirds of its matches, during the last two matches it played a 3-5-2, the only two matches all season in which interim coach Rob Valentino rolled out that formation. I suspect that the formation change was related partially to playing Inter Miami and trying to defend the Herons’ dynamic offense and partially due to an injury suffered by defender Brooks Lennon in the first game of that series. So, while Atlanta primarily played four in the back for most of the season, there is a good chance it will roll with what worked against Florida’s second-best MLS team when it plays Florida’s best MLS team this weekend.

Now, if you want to read more about Atlanta, then you can read our match preview, which will drop Sunday morning, but I want to look at how Orlando did against teams that play similar styles. Looking only at MLS games, the table below shows how Orlando City performed against different back line structures this season (the left side is how the Lions’ opponents lined up, the right side is how Orlando City performed against opponents in those formations):

Table embedded as an image showing Orlando City doing best in goal differential in 12 games against three-man back lines, second best against four-man back lines, and having played once against a five-man back line (a 1-1 draw).

Orlando City earned slightly more points per game — the stat that matters most — against teams that played four in the back, but the Lions had a better average goal differential when teams played three in the back. Atlanta will likely deploy one of those two formations. In both games against Orlando City this season, Sunday’s visitors went with a 4-2-3-1, but as mentioned earlier, they used three in the back in each of their last two matches, so it really could be either.

Soccer is not like baseball, where players primarily stay in the same spot throughout the game, so some of these stats have to be taken with a grain of salt, as players are not always rigidly in the same position throughout a match. A team may also primarily play with four in the back but switch to three when chasing a game, or five when trying to protect against a late goal.

That said, using the data around Orlando City’s opponents’ general formations, here are the attacking groups who played the most frequently against four defenders during the 24 MLS games where Opta coded the opponents as using a defensive group of four:

Table embedded as an image showing the most frequently used lineups against teams who deploy four defenders. The most frequently used attacking group has a plus eight goal differential for the season.

It is a little ominous that the main starting group, shown in row one, has played 666 MLS minutes against back lines of four this season, but do I like that green goal differential of +8 in those minutes, which is a strong +1.08 per 90 minutes. I like that goal differential more than I like all the things that Cardi B, Bad Bunny, and J Balvin like on their song that is creatively named “I Like It.” Coincidentally, when people ask me what I think about that song, I say, “I like it.” I am very creative.

If we look at the lineups that Orlando City has used against back lines of three defenders then there are some pretty major differences in personnel groupings, but it must be noted that more than half of the games against teams playing three in the back came early in the season, when Ramiro Enrique was unavailable to play. Enrique, my presumed starter at striker, has played fewer than three games’ worth of minutes (265 total) against back lines of three this season, and only 28 minutes with the main starting group, which ranks 13th among all the attacking lineups for minutes played against three defenders. That group scored one goal in their 28 minutes together though, for a robust 3.21 goals-scored-per-90-minutes average.

While the team as a whole has been successful against three-man back lines, I do not expect any of the lineups shown in the table below to play more than a few minutes together this weekend, though the first row and the last row are strong groups and had a lot of success.

Table embedded as an image showing the most frequently used lineups against teams who deploy three defenders. The most frequently used attacking group has a plus three goal differential for the season.

I am sure that all week long the Orlando City coaching staff has been going back and forth on whether it is more likely that Atlanta reverts to its most commonly used four in the back, or if the Five Stripes try for three wins in a row with three in the back. I would prefer that Atlanta plays with zero defenders and goalkeeper Brad Guzan wears a blindfold, but I think that is unlikely to be the case.

Even though Atlanta defeated Orlando City both times while in a 4-2-3-1, based on available personnel and recent results, I believe that the team will come out in a 3-5-2 in Inter&Co Stadium in the conference semifinal. Good things come in threes, and Orlando City’s best offensive production this season has been against three defenders, so I am going to be hoping that this continues, and in the third game against Atlanta the Lions grab the three points. Three’s company!

Well, it is a playoff game, so there are no actual points at stake, but you know what I meant.

Vamos Orlando!

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Orlando City vs. Atlanta United: Three Keys to Victory

What do the Lions need to do to get a victory to advance to the Eastern Conference final?

Published

12 hours ago

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November 21, 2024

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

Orlando City continues its playoff journey against Atlanta United Sunday at Inter&Co Stadium. The Lions are coming off an emotional penalty shootout win over Charlotte FC in their best-of-three, first-round series. Likewise, Atlanta United stunned everyone by taking out Inter Miami to advance in its own best-of-three matchup. Now, the rivals meet in the Eastern Conference semifinals.

What does Orlando City need to do to get past Atlanta United to advance to the Easter Conference final?

Beat Guzan

Brad Guzan made 16 saves over Atlanta’s three matches against Inter Miami, including seven in the 3-2 win on the road in Game 3. The 40-year-old former USMNT keeper is in excellent form and is a big reason why the Five Stripes are facing Orlando City. Converting chances against Guzan will be crucial to earning a result. There have been times this season when the Lions have struggled to convert their chances. Despite that, the team has done enough offensively to get to this point. Facundo Torres, Martin Ojeda, Duncan McGuire, Ramiro Enrique, and others have contributed and will need to do so this weekend.

Cartagena is Essential

Orlando City lost twice to Atlanta United during the regular season. What is interesting, and perhaps relevant, is that Wilder Cartagena was out for both of those matches. Cartagena was shown a straight red in the match against Minnesota United prior to the first match against Atlanta way back in March. He was shown a yellow card in the match against FC Cincinnati and then served a yellow card accumulation suspension for the final match of the season against Atlanta. Fortunately for Orlando City, Cartagena will be available for the match this weekend. I’ve mentioned before the importance of Cartagena to Orlando City’s success. When he and Cesar Araujo are on the field together, the defense is simply better. Cartagena is frankly one of the better defensive midfielders in MLS. Atlanta scored five goals in the series against Miami, and Orlando will need to keep the visitors from having that kind of offensive success.

Overcome the Past

That darn international break in the middle of the playoffs is something I don’t love. More precisely, I don’t like it because Orlando City often struggles after a break. It would have been nice if Orlando City could have ridden the momentum from the penalty kick victory into the Atlanta match, but that’s not to be. Now is the time for Orlando City to break some bad habits, including turning around its historical lack of success against Atlanta, and tendency to struggle in the first match after a break. Oscar Pareja needs to have the players in the right frame of mind, and the players need to execute the plan. A full house of supporters can also make a difference. Given it’s a Sunday afternoon match, there’s no reason not to pack the house.

That is what I will be looking for Sunday afternoon. Let me know your thoughts in the comments below. Vamos Orlando!

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Lion Links: 11/21/24

Marta’s chance to shine in NWSL Championship, NWSL and MLS award winners announced, 2025 SheBelieves Cup details, and more.

Published

15 hours ago

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November 21, 2024

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Image courtesy of Orlando Pride

How’s it going, Mane Landers? I’ve been spending most of this week plotting out some holiday shopping to make things a little less stressful for myself over the next few weeks. A big weekend filled with Orlando soccer awaits us, so make sure to get any errands or obligations out of the way sooner rather than later. Let’s dive into today’s links!

Spotlight Falls On Marta in NWSL Championship

There are plenty of storylines heading into Saturday’s NWSL Championship between the Orlando Pride and Washington Spirit, including Marta’s opportunity to put an exclamation point on what has been an excellent season for the Pride. Orlando has been enjoying the fruits of its labor this season after a rebuild over the past few years that’s included plenty of change in the City Beautiful. Marta has been a constant, however, enduring some difficult seasons since joining the Pride and adapting her game She’s scored in both of the Pride’s playoff games so far and has a chance to author a storybook ending on Saturday.

Ann-Katrin Berger Named NWSL Goalkeeper of the Year

NJ/NY Gotham FC goalkeeper Ann-Katrin Berger was named 2024 NWSL Goalkeeper of the Year, beating out the Pride’s Anna Moorhouse and Utah Royals FC’s Mandy Haught for the honor. It was Berger’s first year in the NWSL and she’s the first European player to win the award. She only conceded 16 goals across her 22 matches for Gotham this season and was a key reason behind her team’s success. I’m not too surprised that Moorhouse did not win, considering how solid the Pride’s defense was as a whole, but this won’t take anything away from a record-breaking season for her.

Wilfried Nancy Named MLS Coach of the Year

Columbus Crew Head Coach Wilfried Nancy was voted 2024 MLS Coach of the Year after a historic season in which the Crew set club records in both points and goals. The Crew also won the Leagues Cup this summer and their 2024 Concacaf Champions Cup campaign included advancing past Tigres and Monterrey en route to the final. This is Nancy’s first time being named Coach of the Year and he has been a finalist for the award every year since 2021. The Frenchman received 40.02% of the vote, winning the award over Inter Miami’s Gerardo Martino and Colorado Rapids Head Coach Chris Armas.

2025 SheBelieves Cup Details Unveiled

The 10th annual SheBelieves Cup will take place next year and the tournament will return to its usual format where each of the four teams plays each other once. The United States Women’s National Team will host Japan, Colombia, and Australia in February in what should be an exciting tournament. The U.S. will take on Colombia on Feb. 20 in Houston before facing Australia in Arizona on Feb. 23 and finishing the tournament on Feb. 26 against Japan at Snapdragon Stadium in San Diego. These games will also be the first domestic games of 2025 for the USWNT as it prepares to qualify for the 2027 World Cup in Brazil.

Eric Quill Named FC Dallas Head Coach

FC Dallas announced that Eric Quill will become the team’s next head coach. Quill joins Dallas after a great year with New Mexico United that included trips to the U.S. Open Cup quarterfinals and USL Championship Western Conference semifinals. It’s also a reunion of sorts for Quill, as he previously coached North Texas SC and was named USL League One Coach of the Year with the club in 2019. Dallas missed out on the playoffs this season, with Peter Luccin coaching the team on an interim basis after the firing of Nico Estevez in June.

Free Kicks

  • District of Columbia Mayor Muriel Bowser challenged Orlando Mayor Buddy Dyer to a bet involving this weekend’s NWSL Championship, with embarrassing lightshows on the line.

That’s all I have for you this time around. I hope you all have a wonderful Thursday and rest of your week!

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