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Predictions for Orlando City’s Remaining Games of the 2024 Season

A deep dive into Orlando City’s final seven opponents and predictions on the Lions will do in those matchups.

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2 years ago

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

We do not often write about National Football League Commissioner Roger Goodell at The Mane Land, but it is clear that the NFL was intentional about scheduling its season-opening weekend on a bye weekend for Orlando City, lest they lose all of their viewers to watching the team that you know and I know is the most exciting team to watch in all of sports. Fittingly for the city of Orlando, that excitement has been similar to a roller coaster this season, with ups and downs throughout, but with positive results in eight of the last 10 matches and wins in six of those matches, the team is clearly now heading in the right direction. The question remains whether the Lions will continue this climb or if they are just leading up to a sudden drop.

The Lions have seven games remaining on their regular-reason schedule, and at a quick glance it would appear like they have an excellent chance of continuing their hot streak and picking up points in more than half of those games. The next games in order are:

  • Home vs. New England (1.04 points/game this season, 23rd in MLS)
  • Home vs. Charlotte (1.41, 14th)
  • At Columbus (1.96, second)
  • At Dallas (1.22, 18th)
  • Home vs. Philadelphia (1.11, 21st)
  • At Cincinnati (1.89, fourth)
  • Home vs. Atlanta (1.15, 20th)

As Orlando City is currently on a pace of 1.37 points per game, which is 15th in MLS, the Lions are playing four teams with lower points per game this season, one that is nearly the same, and two that have been performing better thus far this season.

In looking a little deeper at the seven remaining opponents, however, that schedule actually starts to look a little more difficult. If you look at the results from the most recent five matches instead of the season as a whole, Orlando City is playing four teams (Columbus, Dallas, Philadelphia, Atlanta) that are performing better recently than they had been for all games prior to their most recent five games. Two of those teams (Columbus and Dallas) are tied with Orlando City for second in MLS, with 10 points from their last five games. Unfortunately for Orlando City, both of those games against Columbus and Dallas will be on the road, but then again, Orlando’s road record of 6-3-5 (1.50 points/game) is better than its home record of 4-4-5 (1.23 points/game), so perhaps that is actually fortunate.

In looking even deeper, well, this chart will help show how all over the place Orlando City’s opponents really are when you look at their full season performance and also their more recent performance. (PPG = points per game and GDG = goal differential per game, which I needed to use instead of just plain goal differential, since the teams have not all played the same amount of games.)

New England’s -0.84 under Full Season GDG means that for the full season the Revolution have been losing games by an average of 0.84 goals per game.

A few takeaways from this chart:

  • I mentioned earlier that four teams are getting better results recently than they had been before the most recent five matches, but Dallas and Philadelphia are both playing significantly better than they had before, while Atlanta and Columbus are only playing slightly better than they had before.
  • That said, Columbus was playing really well and is still playing really well, so that lack of improvement is relative, since the Crew did not have a lot of room to improve and yet they still did.
  • Cincinnati is a stunning case, since the club had only lost four of its first 22 matches before losing four of its next five. And in those four losses, Cincinnati was outscored 9-2, leading to that big drop in GDG. Even with that swoon, Cincinnati is still ranked fourth overall in MLS and third in the Eastern Conference in points per game.
  • Lastly, the section on the far right shows how each team has performed at home or on the road this season. The Match Location is for Orlando City, and the Opponent PPG shows, for example, that Philadelphia averages 1.31 points on the road this season. Orlando City has a better location-based PPG than its opponent in only three (New England, Charlotte, Atlanta) of the final seven games.

During each of the last three seasons, Orlando City earned at least 48 points during the regular season, and to make it four years in a row, the Lions will need to pick up at least 11 points from these final seven games. Here are the possible points the Lions can still earn, based on the number of wins they could have in those seven games:

Just looking at the math, it is possible that they could get to 11 points with only two wins, but that would require no losses in the other five games, and I think that is asking a lot for a team that has lost 37% of its games thus far this season. I think the most likely way that Orlando City gets to at least 11 points is three wins and two draws or four wins and any number of draws, so we need to rank the final seven opponents based on the likelihood of an Orlando City win.

Before we do that, however, we should note that Orlando City’s only MLS loss in its last seven MLS matches was at Sporting Kansas City, a team that is among the hottest in MLS, with results in four of its last five matches. Even though SKC lost, it played some close matches with several of the top teams in the league (LA Galaxy, Real Salt Lake, Colorado, Vancouver) before that. Perhaps Orlando City’s loss away in Kansas City was not as bad as it seemed at the time.

No, that loss still stunk.

Coming back to our ranking, I got out my mathematics degree, shined it up, blew it a kiss, and then put together a very fancy (read: very simple) algorithm using standard deviations to determine the order of most to least likely for Orlando City to get a win, with a formula that went:

That formula produced the list below, ranked in order of the upcoming schedule, accompanied by the team’s rank in order of likelihood of Orlando City getting a win (higher numbers mean Orlando City is more likely to win):

Whether this algorithm is correct or not, there is no doubt that the next two games for Orlando City are absolutely critical in both the made-up pursuit of a fourth straight season of at least 48 points and the more important push to secure a playoff berth and the opportunity to win MLS Cup. The next game (New England) is always the most important game, and after that, Orlando City could have an opportunity to pass Charlotte and move up the table, depending on how the Lions do against New England and how Charlotte does in its Sept. 14 match against CF MontrΓ©al. Both matches are at home, and despite their poor overall home record the Lions have three wins and one draw in their last four home MLS games. It would be quite nice to extend that to five wins in their last six before going on the road to Columbus.

I am going to predict that Orlando City does indeed win against New England and Charlotte, loses on the road at Columbus, ties at Dallas, ties Philadelphia, loses at Cincinnati, and closes with a home win over Atlanta for a final record of 3-2-2 during those last seven matches. The mathematically inclined will quickly recognize that a 3-2-2 record adds up to the 11 points the Lions needed to get to 48 points, but leaves them short of getting to 50 for the third time in the last four years. They would secure a playoff position, but they would also be on the road for the first game, and a third game as well if the series goes to three games.

While the team has definitely been playing a lot better as of late, I think this last seven-match run is a difficult one and the Lions will have to really push to do even as well as I predicted, which is only earning 11 of a possible 21 points. They have it in them to make a run. Let’s hope they come back from this bye week ready to roar and rub my prediction right in my face.

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Orlando City

Flashback Friday: July 4, 2023 vs. Toronto FC

Let’s rewind to an Independence Day affair that had plenty of offensive fireworks.

Published

3 days ago

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July 3, 2026

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

The United States Men’s National Team picked up a gritty, resilient 2-0 win over Bosnia and Herzegovina in the Round of 32 on Wednesday, and will now face Belgium in a rematch of the 2014 World Cup Round of 16 next Monday. While we patiently wait for that game, it’s time to continue our Friday tradition of revisiting some classic Orlando City games from years past.

Last week, we rewound to a high octane affair against the Chicago Fire in late June 2022, that saw the Lions douse Chicago’s flames and pick up a much-needed 4-2 victory. Today, let’s hop in the time machine and travel back to Independence Day 2023, when Toronto FC came to town.

At the time of Toronto’s visit, things were going relatively smoothly for OCSC. The team was riding a three-match unbeaten streak and had scored five goals across those three games. Oscar Pareja lined up his team in its customary 4-2-3-1, with Pedro Gallese in goal; a back line of Rafael Santos, Robin Jansson, Antonio Carlos, and Kyle Smith; Wilder Cartagena and Cesar Araujo in the double pivot; Ivan Angulo, Mauricio Pereyra, and Facundo Torres in the attacking midfield; and Duncan McGuire up top.

Orlando very nearly got a goal a little under 10 minutes into the game. Former OCSC goalkeeper Greg Ranjitsingh knocked down a cross in front of the net, and while Pereyra was first to the ball, he could only blast it over the bar with the goal at his mercy. Fortunately, that miss would not come back to haunt the Lions, who bagged the game’s first goal in the 16th minute. Angulo sucked defenders toward him on the left edge of the box before releasing Santos out wide. The fullback played a peach of a first-time, curling cross to the back post, where Araujo was waiting to power a diving header into the side netting at the far post for his first league goal.

That goal broke the game open, and Orlando got another goal six minutes later to double the advantage. It initially looked like a carbon copy of the first goal, with Santos out in space on the left side of the box, sending in a curled cross. The ball deflected off a defender and came in low toward the goal. Ranjitsingh waited for the ball instead of going to claim it, and that allowed McGuire to nip in front of him and get a touch on the ball to sneak it in at the near post.

Orlando nearly got even more goals inside the half hour, with Torres and McGuire both going close in quick succession. Federico Bernardeschi smashed a shot off the post in the 28th minute, and the Lions seemed to be losing focus a little bit, with the hydration break a welcome pause in play when it came. OCSC came out of the pause well, and Pereyra put Angulo through in the 36th minute, but the Colombian couldn’t bring the ball under control and fashion a shooting chance.

Orlando led in every meaningful statistical category at halftime. The Lions had more possession (55.8%-44.2%), shots (6-2), shots on goal (2-0), corners (4-2), and passing accuracy (89.5%-85%). Most importantly, they led 2-0 on the scoreboard.

Toronto tried to change things at halftime by introducing three substitutes, but Orlando settled back into the game quickly and negated the efforts of interim TFC manager Terry Dunfield. Angulo and Torres forced Ranjitsingh into a pair of saves in the 53rd and 55th minutes, and the Lions tried to press their advantage by sending on Ramiro Enrique and Martin Ojeda in the 57th minute for McGuire and Pereyra.

The game then changed in a big way in the 62nd minute. Cartagena and Bernardeschi exchanged words after a turnover, and the Italian winger put Cartagena on the ground with the help of a little theatrics from the midfielder. Bernardeschi had already been yellow carded in the 47th minute for a foul on Smith, and the altercation with Wilder saw him receive a second yellow and his marching orders to go along with it.

With TFC down to 10 men, the Lions started to tee off at goal. Ojeda came close to getting the team’s third in the 69th minute, with Enrique doing the same in the 71st but missing just wide. When the goal finally came, it was from the unlikely foot of Dagur Dan Thorhallsson, who had been subbed into the game alongside Ercan Kara in the 68th minute.

Thorhallsson made a great run behind the defense in the 77th minute, and Araujo picked him out well. Ranjitsingh came out to try to play sweeper-keeper, but DDT beat him to the ball easily, touched it around the former Lion, and rolled it into the empty net to score his first MLS goal and make it 3-0.

Toronto had a halfway decent chance to pull one back in the 82nd minute, but Brandon Servania’s long-distance attempt at chipping Gallese ended up missing high and settling on the roof of the net. Kara then iced the game in the 84th minute. Araujo fired a pass to Ojeda at the top of the box, and even though he had trouble bringing it under control, he had the presence of mind to backheel it toward goal for the big Austrian to pounce on and fire a low, hard shot into the net for 4-0.

Ojeda nearly got a goal of his own two minutes later but had a great effort saved in what was the last truly dangerous moment of the game.

As was the case at halftime, when the final whistle blew, the Lions had created plenty of fireworks on both the scoreboard and the stat sheet. OCSC finished with more possession (59.6%-40.4%), shots (18-6), shots on target (9-0), corners (8-2), and passing accuracy (91%-84.8%).

Marcus Mitchell had Player Grades for this one, and he named Araujo the Man of the Match with a grade of 8 out of 10 for his one-goal/one-assist effort. The other high performers on the night were Antonio Carlos, and Cartagena, who each graded out at 7.5 out of 10.

That’ll do it for this week’s trip down memory lane. We’ve been getting spoiled lately, with Orlando putting up four goals in back-to-back time machine games, and it’s made for an enjoyable glimpse into years gone by. With any luck, next week’s edition will be similarly entertaining. Vamos Orlando!

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Lion Links

Lion Links: 7/3/26

Orlando Pride visit Angel City tonight, NWSL free agents to watch, Portugal and Spain advance, and more.

Published

3 days ago

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July 3, 2026

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Image courtesy of Orlando Pride / Jeremy Reper

Happy Friday, Mane Landers! I don’t have many plans this holiday weekend beyond enjoying some soccer and indulging myself in a few hot dogs to celebrate. It should be a fun weekend, but make sure to stay safe out there if you plan on setting off any fireworks. For now though, let’s get to the links!

Orlando Pride Take On Angel City FC Tonight

The NWSL resumes today and the Orlando Pride will play against Angel City FC at 10 p.m. in their first match since a 3-1 win over Bay FC on May 29. That win capped off a six-game month for the Pride, including a stretch of three straight road games. Meanwhile, Angel City parted ways with Alex Straus over the break after only winning once in May, and tonight’s match will be Leif Gunnar Smerud’s first since being named interim head coach. It can be tough playing an opponent with a new coach, but hopefully the Pride can bring all three points back to Orlando.

Top NWSL Free Agents to Watch

Free agency is officially underway in the NWSL and the list of players with contracts expiring at the end of the year includes some of the league’s best players. Orlando Pride star Marta was listed as one of the top free agents to watch, though I would be pretty shocked if she plays for another NWSL club if she leaves Orlando after this season. Leicy Santos, Debinha, and Rose Lavelle are other skilled attackers who will become free agents, but Gotham FC goalkeeper Ann-Katrin Berger is sure to have plenty of clubs reaching out for her talents as well.

Portugal and Spain Advance in World Cup

This World Cup hasn’t been short on excitement and that continued with Portugal’s 2-1 win against Croatia. After a scoreless first half, Croatia took the lead thanks to a goal from Ivan Perisic, but Cristiano Ronaldo equalized from the penalty spot and the game was moments away from heading to extra time. Goncalo Ramos gave Portugal the goal it needed to advance deep in stoppage time, but Croatia nearly came back with a goal that was disallowed due to an offside call. Spain cruised to a 3-0 win against Austria to book its spot in the round of 16 as well. Mikel Oyarzabal scored twice for his second brace of the tournament, with Marc Cucurella assisting on both of his goals. Spain and Portugal will square off in the next round in what should be a fantastic match. Switzerland and Algeria kicked off late.

The round of 32 wraps up today with a trio of matches, starting with Egypt’s game against Australia. Cape Verde will then look to shock the world when it plays Argentina, and the late game will be between Colombia and Ghana.

Columbus Crew Sign New Designated Player

The Columbus Crew have signed Spanish midfielder Brais Mendez to a Designated Player contract through the 2028-2029 season with a club option for the 2029-2030 season. Mendez has spent the past four La Liga seasons with Real Sociedad, recording 33 goals and 24 assists in 166 appearances. He gives the crew some additional firepower as reports swirl regarding Diego Rossi’s departure for CF Monterrey. While maybe not in the same headline-grabbing tier of MLS summer signings like Antoine Griezmann or Robert Lewandowski, Mendez is a big addition to the league as the Eastern Conference arms race continues.

Free Kicks

  • CF Montreal sent $2.1 million in General Allocation Money to Austin FC in exchange for midfielder Dani Pereira. Selected with the first overall pick in the 2021 MLS SuperDraft, Pereira has contributed six goals and 23 assists in 165 appearances across all competitions for Austin.
  • Real Salt Lake reportedly rejected a transfer bid around $3.5 million from CF Monterrey for midfielder Diego Luna.
  • American winger Emma Sears reportedly requested a trade from Racing Louisville, although the club is not reportedly interested in a midseason transfer.
  • The United States Men’s National Team’s win over Bosnia and Herzegovina had record viewership. Understandably so, too, as I spent most of the match pacing around my living room.

That’s all I have for you this time around. I hope you all have a fantastic Friday and rest of your weekend!

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Lion Links

Lion Links: 7/2/26

USMNT shuts out Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kat Asman loaned to Denver Summit FC, MLS transfer news, and more.

Published

4 days ago

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July 2, 2026

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Image of Pride goalkeeper Kat Asman
Image courtesy of Orlando Pride

Wednesday nights are starting to feel magical. Orlando City has thrived this year when playing on Wednesdays, and now the United States Men’s National Team has provided us with a reason to tackle this Thursday at full force. Before we dive into that result and the rest of today’s links, let’s all wish a happy birthday to Orlando City defender Tahir Reid-Brown!

USMNT Survives Red Card to Advance

The U.S. won 2-0 against Bosnia and Herzegovina in an emotional rollercoaster of a match in the World Cup’s round of 32. Folarin Balogun got the U.S. on the board at a crucial time right before halftime by scoring his third goal of the tournament. But the game flipped on its head in the second half when Balogun was shown a harsh red card by the referee after video review for a foul when he accidentally came down on the back of an opponent’s foot. The Yanks fought hard to make up for the difference of being down a player and doubled their lead after earning a free kick right outside the box. Malik Tillman’s shot went up and over the wall and into the net for a goal U.S. fans will be replaying over and over again.

The U.S. did well to grind out the win after that second goal, with former Lion Alex Freeman doing his part on defense to help shut out Bosnia and Herzegovina. It was a memorable win, and now the U.S. will turn its focus to its round-of-16 matchup against Belgium on Monday.

Pride Loan Goalkeeper Kat Asman to Denver Summit

The Orlando Pride loaned goalkeeper Kat Asman to the Denver Summit for the remainder of the 2026 NWSL season. Asman is coming off of a loan with Lexington SC in the Gainbridge Super League, where she played every minute of the season to help Lexington win the title. She posted 11 clean sheets with Lexington last season and won the league’s Golden Glove as well. Asman has yet to make an appearance for the Pride since joining prior to the 2025 season, and her contract expires at the end of the season. She now heads to Denver, where Abby Smith has done well in goal as the expansion team’s starter.

MLS Transfer News Roundup

Real Salt Lake sent $625,000 in General Allocation Money (GAM) to Atlanta United in exchange for winger Saba Lobjanidze and a third-round pick in the 2028 MLS SuperDraft, with another $100,000 in GAM going Atlanta’s way if he re-signs with Real Salt Lake. The Columbus Crew fully acquired defender Andres Herrera from River Plate after an extended loan, signing him to a contract through the 2028-2029 season. The LA Galaxy transferred defender Mauricio Cuevas to Santos Laguna, the New England Revolution added forward Wilson Harris, and Sporting Kansas City signed center back Moises Mosquera from FC Juarez. The San Jose Earthquakes are reportedly close to signing Scottish goalkeeper Angus Gunn, with Daniel heading to FC Dallas in a trade if that happens. It’s somewhat surprising considering Daniel has done well to help San Jose only concede 15 goals this season.

🏴󠁧󠁒󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 Sources: San Jose Earthquakes closing in on a deal to sign Scotland int'l GK Angus Gunn.πŸ‡§πŸ‡· Sources: FC Dallas has agreed to a deal to acquire GK Daniel from San Jose.βž• Daniel trade is contingent on Gunn signing being formalized.

— Tom Bogert (@tombogert.bsky.social) 2026-07-01T16:34:02.297Z

European Nations Move On After Dramatic Comebacks

This World Cup continues to deliver thrilling games during this new round-of-32 phase. Senegal looked certain to go through to the next round until Belgium scored a pair of goals after the 85th minute to knot the game at 2-2 and send it into extra time. The game was decided by a penalty, but not in a shootout, as a foul in the box resulted in Youri Tielemans scoring from the spot to give Belgium the victory. In Atlanta, Harry Kane scored twice to rescue England in a 2-1 win over the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Brian Cipanga gave the Congo an early lead, but Kane struck twice in the second half, with his winner being one of the best goals of the tournament so far.

England is now set to face Mexico at the Azteca on Sunday in what should be a great game. As for today’s action, Orlando City winger Marco Pasalic and Croatia will take on Portugal in a matchup between European heavyweights. The winner of that match will face whoever prevails today between Spain and Austria, with Switzerland and Algeria squaring off in the late night match.

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That’s all I have for you this time around. I hope you all have a wonderful Thursday and rest of your week!

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