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Predictions for Orlando City’s Remaining Games of the 2024 Season

A deep dive into Orlando City’s final seven opponents and predictions on the Lions will do in those matchups.

Published

2 years ago

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

We do not often write about National Football League Commissioner Roger Goodell at The Mane Land, but it is clear that the NFL was intentional about scheduling its season-opening weekend on a bye weekend for Orlando City, lest they lose all of their viewers to watching the team that you know and I know is the most exciting team to watch in all of sports. Fittingly for the city of Orlando, that excitement has been similar to a roller coaster this season, with ups and downs throughout, but with positive results in eight of the last 10 matches and wins in six of those matches, the team is clearly now heading in the right direction. The question remains whether the Lions will continue this climb or if they are just leading up to a sudden drop.

The Lions have seven games remaining on their regular-reason schedule, and at a quick glance it would appear like they have an excellent chance of continuing their hot streak and picking up points in more than half of those games. The next games in order are:

  • Home vs. New England (1.04 points/game this season, 23rd in MLS)
  • Home vs. Charlotte (1.41, 14th)
  • At Columbus (1.96, second)
  • At Dallas (1.22, 18th)
  • Home vs. Philadelphia (1.11, 21st)
  • At Cincinnati (1.89, fourth)
  • Home vs. Atlanta (1.15, 20th)

As Orlando City is currently on a pace of 1.37 points per game, which is 15th in MLS, the Lions are playing four teams with lower points per game this season, one that is nearly the same, and two that have been performing better thus far this season.

In looking a little deeper at the seven remaining opponents, however, that schedule actually starts to look a little more difficult. If you look at the results from the most recent five matches instead of the season as a whole, Orlando City is playing four teams (Columbus, Dallas, Philadelphia, Atlanta) that are performing better recently than they had been for all games prior to their most recent five games. Two of those teams (Columbus and Dallas) are tied with Orlando City for second in MLS, with 10 points from their last five games. Unfortunately for Orlando City, both of those games against Columbus and Dallas will be on the road, but then again, Orlando’s road record of 6-3-5 (1.50 points/game) is better than its home record of 4-4-5 (1.23 points/game), so perhaps that is actually fortunate.

In looking even deeper, well, this chart will help show how all over the place Orlando City’s opponents really are when you look at their full season performance and also their more recent performance. (PPG = points per game and GDG = goal differential per game, which I needed to use instead of just plain goal differential, since the teams have not all played the same amount of games.)

New England’s -0.84 under Full Season GDG means that for the full season the Revolution have been losing games by an average of 0.84 goals per game.

A few takeaways from this chart:

  • I mentioned earlier that four teams are getting better results recently than they had been before the most recent five matches, but Dallas and Philadelphia are both playing significantly better than they had before, while Atlanta and Columbus are only playing slightly better than they had before.
  • That said, Columbus was playing really well and is still playing really well, so that lack of improvement is relative, since the Crew did not have a lot of room to improve and yet they still did.
  • Cincinnati is a stunning case, since the club had only lost four of its first 22 matches before losing four of its next five. And in those four losses, Cincinnati was outscored 9-2, leading to that big drop in GDG. Even with that swoon, Cincinnati is still ranked fourth overall in MLS and third in the Eastern Conference in points per game.
  • Lastly, the section on the far right shows how each team has performed at home or on the road this season. The Match Location is for Orlando City, and the Opponent PPG shows, for example, that Philadelphia averages 1.31 points on the road this season. Orlando City has a better location-based PPG than its opponent in only three (New England, Charlotte, Atlanta) of the final seven games.

During each of the last three seasons, Orlando City earned at least 48 points during the regular season, and to make it four years in a row, the Lions will need to pick up at least 11 points from these final seven games. Here are the possible points the Lions can still earn, based on the number of wins they could have in those seven games:

Just looking at the math, it is possible that they could get to 11 points with only two wins, but that would require no losses in the other five games, and I think that is asking a lot for a team that has lost 37% of its games thus far this season. I think the most likely way that Orlando City gets to at least 11 points is three wins and two draws or four wins and any number of draws, so we need to rank the final seven opponents based on the likelihood of an Orlando City win.

Before we do that, however, we should note that Orlando City’s only MLS loss in its last seven MLS matches was at Sporting Kansas City, a team that is among the hottest in MLS, with results in four of its last five matches. Even though SKC lost, it played some close matches with several of the top teams in the league (LA Galaxy, Real Salt Lake, Colorado, Vancouver) before that. Perhaps Orlando City’s loss away in Kansas City was not as bad as it seemed at the time.

No, that loss still stunk.

Coming back to our ranking, I got out my mathematics degree, shined it up, blew it a kiss, and then put together a very fancy (read: very simple) algorithm using standard deviations to determine the order of most to least likely for Orlando City to get a win, with a formula that went:

That formula produced the list below, ranked in order of the upcoming schedule, accompanied by the team’s rank in order of likelihood of Orlando City getting a win (higher numbers mean Orlando City is more likely to win):

Whether this algorithm is correct or not, there is no doubt that the next two games for Orlando City are absolutely critical in both the made-up pursuit of a fourth straight season of at least 48 points and the more important push to secure a playoff berth and the opportunity to win MLS Cup. The next game (New England) is always the most important game, and after that, Orlando City could have an opportunity to pass Charlotte and move up the table, depending on how the Lions do against New England and how Charlotte does in its Sept. 14 match against CF Montréal. Both matches are at home, and despite their poor overall home record the Lions have three wins and one draw in their last four home MLS games. It would be quite nice to extend that to five wins in their last six before going on the road to Columbus.

I am going to predict that Orlando City does indeed win against New England and Charlotte, loses on the road at Columbus, ties at Dallas, ties Philadelphia, loses at Cincinnati, and closes with a home win over Atlanta for a final record of 3-2-2 during those last seven matches. The mathematically inclined will quickly recognize that a 3-2-2 record adds up to the 11 points the Lions needed to get to 48 points, but leaves them short of getting to 50 for the third time in the last four years. They would secure a playoff position, but they would also be on the road for the first game, and a third game as well if the series goes to three games.

While the team has definitely been playing a lot better as of late, I think this last seven-match run is a difficult one and the Lions will have to really push to do even as well as I predicted, which is only earning 11 of a possible 21 points. They have it in them to make a run. Let’s hope they come back from this bye week ready to roar and rub my prediction right in my face.

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Orlando City

Orlando City vs. New England Revolution, 2026 U.S. Open Cup: Preview, How to Watch, TV Info, Live Stream, Lineups, Match Thread, and More

The Lions head to Rhode Island looking to advance in the U.S. Open Cup against the Revs.

Published

11 hours ago

on

April 29, 2026

By

Image of Martin Ojeda celebrating a goal against New England.
Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

Welcome to your match thread for a Wednesday night U.S. Open Cup matchup between Orlando City and the New England Revolution at Centreville Bank Stadium in Pawtucket, RI (7:30 p.m., Paramount+). This is the first meeting between the two MLS Eastern Conference rivals this season, with two scheduled league matches still left to play in 2026.

Here’s what you need to know for the match.

History

The Lions are 6-7-8 in the regular-season series against New England and 7-8-8 in all competitions. On the road, Orlando City is just 2-6-2 against the Revs, with all of those prior meetings coming in the MLS regular season. Orlando City has faced the Revolution once before in U.S. Open Cup play, winning that prior meeting (more on that below).

The most recent meeting between the teams was also in New England, but it was at Gillette Stadium, the Revs’ usual home. Martin Ojeda’s brace led the Lions to a 2-1 victory on July 19, 2025 — just the team’s second road win in the series. Thomas Chancalay scored for New England.

The first match between the sides last year was a wild 3-3 draw in Orlando on May 10. The Lions squandered two leads in that match, including a 2-0 advantage. Ojeda scored Orlando’s first hat trick since 2015 in that game, but those three goals were offset by strikes by Alhassan Yusuf, Matt Polster, and Carles Gil. One of Ojeda’s goals and Gil’s strike were penalties.

Prior to that, the teams met on Sept. 14, 2024, with the Lions completing their first-ever sweep of the Revs with a 3-0 win. Rafael Santos, Facundo Torres (from the penalty spot), and Duncan McGuire provided the offense in a dominant performance. The teams also met on July 13 at Gillette Stadium that year, where the Lions won for the first time, handing the Revs a 3-1 home loss. Torres’ brace led the way to an Orlando comeback, with Ramiro Enrique also scoring to overturn an early 1-0 deficit provided by Giacomo Vrioni.

The teams met in Orlando on Oct. 7, 2023, with the Lions winning 3-2 in a game that wasn’t as close as the score indicates. Orlando City clinched second in the Eastern Conference as McGuire and Torres built a 2-0 lead. Pedro Gallese gave up a soft goal from distance to Gil, but Ivan Angulo pulled that one back three minutes later. Gil added a second goal deep in stoppage time to improve the result cosmetically.

New England got the better of the Lions in the previous matchup of the 2023 season, winning 3-1 at Gillette Stadium on June 17. After a scoreless first half, the Revs went up by two with goals from Emmanuel Boateng and Gustavo Bou 18 minutes apart. McGuire pulled one back late, but Gil scored the dagger five minutes later.

These teams met at Exploria Stadium on Aug. 6, 2022, and the previously struggling Revolution whipped Orlando City, 3-0. New England got goals from unlikely sources, as central midfielders Polster and Wilfrid Kaptoum and center back Henry Kessler provided the offense. The teams met at Gillette Stadium on June 15 of that year, and the Revs went ahead on a Gil goal, but the Lions pulled that back with a Robin Jansson strike en route to a 1-1 road draw.

New England went unbeaten in the 2021 season series. The teams played to a 2-2 draw at Exploria Stadium on Oct. 24, 2021. The Lions built a 2-0 lead through goals by Nani and Daryl Dike, but two late Adam Buksa goals allowed the Revs to steal a point. The teams met at Gillette Stadium just over a month prior to that draw in Orlando, with Nani’s missed penalty a costly one in a 2-1 Revs home win. The Revolution jumped out to a 2-0 lead on a goal by Buksa and an own goal off of Rodrigo Schlegel. Dike pulled one back for the Lions and later won a penalty, but Nani’s attempt to go down the middle was read at the last second by Matt Turner, who got his shoulder to it to preserve the lead.

The Revolution ended the Lions’ season at Exploria Stadium in the 2020 playoffs, knocking Orlando City out of MLS Cup contention in the conference semifinal round on Nov. 29, 2020. That 3-1 win by the Revs was the first road win for either side in the series in any competition. Gil put the Revs up early from the penalty spot after a call against Uri Rosell, and Bou doubled the lead eight minutes later, finishing a play that started with a Nani turnover. Junior Urso pulled a goal back before the halftime whistle, but Mauricio Pereyra was sent off for a studs-up challenge on Polster at the hour mark. Still, Nani had a chance to equalize from the spot, but a poor penalty was saved by Turner. Bou added a late insurance goal.

In the final year of the pre-pandemic times, the Revs went 1-0-1 in the season series. The Lions and Revolution met at Exploria Stadium on Sept. 14, 2019, with Orlando overcoming a Tesho Akindele own goal and two deficits — the second by two goals — and rallying for a 3-3 draw. Shortly after Akindele’s own goal opened the scoring, Nani tied things up. Cristian Penilla and Bou scored goals five minutes apart just before halftime to seemingly give the visitors control. But Dom Dwyer pulled one back after the restart and Nani tied it up.

The teams also met at Gillette Stadium in 2019 on July 27, and the Revs put the Lions on full blast, 4-1. Bou scored within the first two minutes of the game, and the Revolution got goals from Penilla, Gil, and Diego Fagundez. Akindele scored to avoid the shutout.

The teams also met at Exploria Stadium in U.S. Open Cup action that year on June 19, with the Lions scoring twice in a 30-minute extra time session and holding on for a 2-1 victory. Benji Michel and Akindele staked Orlando to a 2-0 lead before Justin Rennicks pulled one back off a Gil back-post cross. City was able to see the game out.

The last meeting of 2018 saw the Revs top a depleted Orlando side, 2-0 in Gillette Stadium on Oct. 13. In the first matchup of 2018, the teams combined for six goals in a 3-3 draw at Orlando City Stadium on Aug. 4.

Orlando City and New England split the season series in 2017. City completed a 6-1 demolition of 10-man New England at home Sept. 27, 2017. New England won at Gillette Stadium that year by a 4-0 count.

The Lions went 1-0-2 in the series in 2016, winning 3-1 at home on July 31. The teams played a controversial 2-2 draw in Orlando on April 17, 2016. The second 2016 meeting reached the same final score on April 30 in New England.

The teams met twice in 2015, with Orlando City rallying from a 2-0 deficit in the final 17 minutes to draw 2-2 at the Citrus Bowl in April. The Sept. 5 rematch at Gillette Stadium didn’t go as well, with New England taking a 3-0 win. Fagundez, Agudelo and Chris Tierney scored for the Revolution.

Overview

Orlando City is coming off a road loss at D.C. United on Saturday. The Lions came from behind to take a 2-1 second-half lead, but then Orlando melted down in the final six minutes, allowing two goals to throw away all three points. City’s only win away from home this season came in the team’s 1-0 round-of-32 U.S. Open Cup match at FC Naples on April 15, but that was far from easy as the USL League One side dominated the game’s final 30 minutes.

The Lions are 19-11-5 all-time in the U.S. Open Cup, 11-7-5 since becoming an MLS side. Away from Orlando, the Lions are 8-6-2 in the U.S. Open Cup, 5-2-2 since joining Major League Soccer.

The Revolution are coming off a 1-1 draw at Inter Miami over the weekend, with Gil scoring for New England. The Revs are 4-0-2 in their last six matches in all competitions and reached this round of the U.S. Open Cup by outlasting USL Championship side Rhode Island FC in penalties after a 1-1 draw on April 14. Fagundez scored shortly after halftime, but Rhode Island’s J.J. Williams equalized in the 11th minute of stoppage time to send the match to extra time and, ultimately, spot kicks.

It seems a bit of a flex for the Revs to return to Rhode Island FC’s stadium to host its round-of-16 match, but they earned the right, so fair play to New England.

“Of course it’s different playing in the U.S. Open Cup, or in every match that is do or die, win or go home,” Orlando City interim head coach Martin Perelman said ahead of the match. “It’s a different context that changes the game, but we have experience in these kinds of competitions and we’re ready for it. We like to compete, we are competitors, so we’re happy and excited.”

Match Content

Official Lineups

Orlando City (4-4-2)

Goalkeeper: Javier Otero.

Defenders: Adrian Marin, Colin Guske, Iago, Griffin Dorsey.

Midfielders: Ivan Angulo, Ignacio Gomez, Braian Ojeda, Tiago.

Forwards: Martin Ojeda, Justin Ellis.

Bench: Maxime Crepeau, Tahir Reid-Brown, Zakaria Taifi, Robin Jansson, Luis Otavio, Wilder Cartagena, Tyrese Spicer.

New England Revolution (4-3-3)

Goalkeeper: Donovan Parisian.

Defenders: Gabriel Dahlin, Tanner Beason, Andrew Farrell, Damario McIntosh.

Midfielders: Allan Oyirwoth, Eric Klein, Cristiano Oliveira.

Forwards: Malcolm Fry, Marcos Zambrano, Diego Fagundez.

Bench: JD Gunn, Chris Mbaï-Assem, Schinieder Mimy, Carlos Zambrano, Javaun Mussenden, Shuma Sasaki, Jayden Da.

How to Watch

Match Time: 7:30 p.m.

Venue: Centreville Bank Stadium — Pawtucket, RI.

TV/Live Stream: Paramount+.

Social Media: For rapid reaction and live updates, follow us on Bluesky Social at @themaneland.bsky.social or follow Orlando City’s official Twitter (@OrlandoCitySC) or Bluesky (@OrlandoCitySC) feed.

Enjoy the match. Go City!

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Lion Links

Lion Links: 4/29/26

Orlando City plays New England tonight, the Orlando Pride are recognized, USMNT news, and more.

Published

15 hours ago

on

April 29, 2026

By

Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

Welcome to Wednesday, Mane Landers. It’s match day with Orlando City taking on the New England Revolution in the U.S. Open Cup tonight. The fixture congestion is real as this is the third match for the Lions in just eight days. I’m sure that it will be fine since Orlando City doesn’t have any injury or depth issues…err…let’s get to the links.

Orlando City’s Open Cup Continues

Orlando City is in Rhode Island to take on the New England Revolution in the next round of the U.S. Open Cup. As always, it will be interesting to see which regular starters play and which youngsters get the start, though the difference between those two is not as stark as in the past. The Lions also have a trip to play Inter Miami this weekend to consider. I don’t think it will happen, but I say go all in on the Open Cup and play Orlando City B against Miami.

Orlando Pride Earns Recognition

Zara Chavoshi is the Orlando Pride’s nominee for the Lauren Holiday Impact Award for 2026. Chavoshi’s chosen community partner is Habitat for Humanity Seminole-Apopka. Each of the 16 NWSL teams are represented with a panel of judges, including Holiday, determining the winner. In other news, the Pride are still in the top three of SI.com’s NWSL power rankings. Shockingly — I say with tongue planted firmly in cheek — Barbra Banda didn’t make CBSsports.com’s NWSL Team of the Week despite scoring a brace.

Griezmann Continues Champions League Chase

Orlando City’s next Designated Player, Antoine Griezmann, has unfinished business with current club Atletico Madrid. Griezmann and Atletico face Arsenal in the UEFA Champions League semifinals this afternoon. As much as I’m looking forward to Griezmann’s arrival in Orlando, I am also all for him winning hardware before he leaves Atletico.

USMNT News

The World Cup is just around the corner, and there are many players in MLS who will be representing their respective countries. Matt Turner is making an excellent case that he should be the first-choice keeper for the USMNT. Stepping outside of MLS, is Weston McKennie the player who the U.S. can least afford to lose heading into the World Cup? McKennie has been playing well this year for club and country. Meanwhile, Christian Pulisic has been in a bit of a slump. Hopefully, he can turn it around before the World Cup.

Free Kicks

  • Rodrigo Schlegel visited Orlando City’s training this week. I’m not saying I want him to start, but a short-term contract for depth might be nice.

🚨 Jose Mourinho preferred candidate of Florentino Perez to become next Real Madrid head coach. Support not universal inside #RMFC but president driving process so 63yo strong contender. Time-sensitive ~€3m break clause in Benfica contract 🚨@theathleticfc.bsky.socialwww.nytimes.com/athletic/723…

— David Ornstein (@david-ornstein.bsky.social) 2026-04-28T11:49:11.588Z
  • Sometimes there’s a light of hope in the dark forest that we’re travelling through. Believe.

That will do it for today. Check back for our coverage of Orlando City’s match tonight. Vamos Orlando!

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Lion Links

Lion Links: 4/28/26

Takeaways from MLS matchday 10, Americans in midweek action, Vancouver Whitecaps may be relocated, and more.

Published

2 days ago

on

April 28, 2026

By

Image of Martin Ojeda with the ball against Nashville.
Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

Good morning, everyone. It was a mixed bag for Orlando’s soccer teams over the weekend, as Orlando City B was the only one of the three sides to get a result. We’ve got another busy week ahead of us as Orlando City will be in action twice, the Orlando Pride face the Washington Spirit on Saturday, and OCB takes on Crown Legacy to round off the week on Sunday. We’ve got plenty to discuss today, so let’s jump into the links.

MLS Matchday 10 Lessons

Matchday 10 is officially in the books for Major League Soccer, so what did we learn from the weekend’s action? For one thing, the Vancouver Whitecaps seem to have done a very good job of reloading from the off-season losses of Ali Ahmed and Jayden Nelson. New faces Cheikh Sabaly and Bruno Caicedo have been finding their feet and both had goal involvements in Vancouver’s 3-1 win over the Colorado Rapids. Matt Turner looks to be rediscovering some of his best form as he made nine saves in the New England Revolution’s 1-1 draw with Inter Miami. New York City FC’s Matt Freese has been the frontrunner to start in goal for the United States Men’s National Team at the World Cup this summer, but based on his league performances, Turner could make a late charge.

Americans in Midweek Action

Plenty of Americans will be taking part in games during the working week, so let’s have a look at the schedule. Things get started Wednesday, when Tim Ream, Luca de la Torre, and Charlotte FC play Atlanta United in the U.S. Open Cup Round of 16. Wednesday has Johnny Cardoso and Atletico Madrid hosting Arsenal in the first leg of the UEFA Champions League semifinals. On Thursday, Chris Richards and Crystal Palace will travel to Shakhtar Donetsk for the first leg of a UEFA Conference League semifinal. The action wraps up on Friday when Brenden Aaronson and Leeds United host Burnley in a Premier League tilt.

Relocation Possible for Vancouver Whitecaps

A special committee of MLS owners reportedly met earlier in April to discuss the potential relocation of the Vancouver Whitecaps. Specifically, Las Vegas is said to have been the primary relocation option discussed at the meeting. It’s been two decades since a team was relocated, as the last franchise to move were the San Jose Earthquakes, who went to Houston and became the Dynamo before being replaced with another San Jose expansion team two years later. Other cities said to be interested in landing a team include Phoenix, Indianapolis, and Sacramento, with Phoenix reportedly one of the main candidates being considered for relocation alongside Vegas. In the meantime, the Whitecaps remain up for sale while the team tries to find an in-market stadium solution, as the team’s lease with BC Place expires at the end of the year.

High Profile Injuries Continue

The 2025-2026 European season has seen a number of high profile injuries, and that’s a trend that unfortunately continued over the weekend. Xavi Simons suffered a torn ACL in his right knee during Tottenham Hotspur’s 1-0 victory over Wolverhampton Wanderers on Saturday, and he will undergo surgery that will sideline him for a significant amount of time. Real Madrid confirmed on Monday that Kylian Mbappe has a left hamstring injury, and he could reportedly miss the May 10 Clasico match against Barcelona as well as the rest of the La Liga season. AC Milan midfielder Luka Modric fractured his left cheekbone in the team’s 0-0 draw with Juventus on Sunday and had surgery to repair the damage. His club season is over, but Croatia manager Zlatko Dalic is confident that he will be healthy in time for the World Cup.

Free Kicks

  • FIFA will reportedly increase the number of times that yellow cards are wiped away at this summer’s World Cup.

That’s all I’ve got for you this morning. Vamos Orlando!

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