Orlando City

Orlando City’s Most Successful Offensive and Defensive Lineups

An analysis of the best offensive and defensive groupings for Orlando City this season across all competitions.

Published

5 mins ago

October 24, 2024

S. Andrew DeSalvo

Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

Soccer is a game that has cheer leaders but not cheerleaders, so there is usually no opportunity to hear people chanting out “two, four, six, eight, who do we appreciate?” at soccer matches. In this article, however, we are going to offer some appreciation, and look back at a two, a four, a six and….an 11 that we appreciate.

Let’s start with the two, and take a look at midfield tandem of César Araújo and Wilder Cartagena. Orlando City’s preferred partnership started 23 games alongside one another in all competitions in 2024, and in those games Orlando City went 13-4-6.

Competition	Wins	Losses	Draws	Points per Game	Goal Differential
Concacaf Champions Cup	1	0	1	2.00	+3
Leagues Cup	1	0	2	1.67	+3
MLS	11	4	3	2.00	+13
Total	13	4	6	1.96	+19

Taking a quick look at the final MLS standings, the 2.00 points per game in MLS play that Orlando City averaged when Araújo and Cartagena started together in the midfield would have ranked only behind Inter Miami’s 2.18 points per game across all 29 MLS teams and was 31% better than Orlando City’s actual final tally of 1.53 points per game (15-12-7). Doing the math, if the Lions were 11-4-3 with Araújo and Cartagena starting together (including six straight wins in their most recent six starts) and 15-12-7 overall, then they must have been 4-8-4 when it was a different starting midfield two, and 4-8-4 is a paltry 1.00 points per game, something closer to a team in the bottom third of the league. Orlando City’s lineup with their top midfield partnership was equivalent to a team on a top-two pace, a one-two punch that was frequently too powerful for an opponent to handle.

Moving on from two to four, let’s take a look at Orlando City’s back lines throughout the season to see which combination of four performed the foremost (ok, I’ll stop) throughout the season. There was a period of time early in the season when the Lions deployed a three-man back line with two wingbacks for a few games, but once they got everyone back from international matches and back to health they have rolled with the four-man back line ever since.

On the season Orlando City has played 41 games (34 in MLS, four in Concacaf Champions Cup, and three in Leagues Cup), so there have been 3,690 total minutes played by defensive groupings so far. Here are the six groupings that played at least 5% of the minutes, and how they have performed this season (own goals scored by Orlando City’s opponents have been excluded, players listed left to right on how they played positionally):

Back Line	Minutes	% of Minutes	Goals Against	Goals Against per 90 Mins	Goal Differential
Santos, Jansson, Schlegel, Thorhallsson	1,227	33.3%	23	1.69	+1
Smith, Jansson, Brekalo, Thorhallsson	496	13.4%	9	1.63	+3
Schlegel, Cartagena, Brekalo	386	10.5%	4	0.93	-3
Smith, Jansson, Schlegel, Thorhallsson	379	10.3%	7	1.66	+4
Santos, Jansson, Brekalo, Thorhallsson	367	9.9%	5	1.23	-2
Santos, Jansson, Schlegel, Smith	262	7.1%	3	1.03	+6

Interestingly, the three-man back line of Rodrigo Schlegel, Cartagena, and David Brekalo has the best goals against per 90 minutes rating, giving up less than one goal per game, but the team struggled to score while in this lineup — odd since a three-man back line allows for seven players to play higher up the field, as opposed to only six when in the standard four-man back line. I chalk a lot of this up to it being an unfamiliar formation and one that was played early in the season when the team was trying to figure out how to mix the attacking players together, rather than an issue caused by a three-man back line.

We are focusing on the fours here though, and while the teams preferred back line clearly appears to be Rafael Santos, Robin Jansson, Schlegel, and Dagur Dan Thórhallsson, the data points to two other groupings as ones that played at least 250 minutes together and had better goal differentials. The Santos, Jansson, Schlegel, and Kyle Smith back line did not debut until September, but it was effective against Charlotte (late game), Dallas (starting four), Philadelphia (starting four), and Cincinnati (starting four), and had the second-best goals against per 90 minutes rating of the most used lineups.

The Smith, Jansson, Schlegel, and Thórhallsson back line played together in nine different games — a mix of four starts and five games where they subbed into that grouping. While it was not a grouping that was difficult to break down and score against, as evidenced by the 1.66 goals against per 90 minutes, they were +4 in only 379 minutes together, so the Lions were banging in the goals at a rate of 2.61 goals scored per 90 minutes.

Sometimes the best defense is a good offense, but when we are trying to find the best defensive group of four, we want the best defense to be the best defense, so it looks like it would be either Santos, Jansson, Schlegel, and Smith or Santos, Jansson, Brekalo, and Thórhallsson. Alas, we never saw Santos, Jansson, Brekalo, and Smith together during the season, so there is no data around that grouping, and with Brekalo being seemingly the forgotten man in recent weeks, I do not think we are going to see that lineup in the playoffs either, unless there is an injury or a card situation.

For my four I’m going to go with the data, and while I expect that Thórhallsson will probably start over Smith in the next match, the data says the lineup should read Santos, Jansson, Schlegel, and Smith, with their low goals against and high goal differential.

We will yell out fore and drive our way over to six, and move from the defensive grouping to the offensive one. It is rather amazing how many different offensive combinations have played at least one minute this season. By my count, there were 107 unique offensive groupings that the Lions utilized throughout the 41 games.

While on the defensive side, Orlando City settled into a lineup that ended up playing almost exactly one-third of all minutes, on the offensive side, the most common lineup just barely reached half that number, and the six lineups that played the most together did not even play half of the total minutes available this season (players listed alphabetically, as I could not come up with an easy way to depict the offensive formation in a table).

Attacking Group	Minutes	% of Minutes	Goals Scored	Goals per 90 Minutes	Goal Differential
Angulo, Araujo, Cartagena, Enrique, Ojeda, Torres	615	16.7%	11	1.61	+7
Angulo, Araujo, Cartagena, McGuire, Ojeda, Torres	339	9.2%	8	2.12	+3
Angulo, Araujo, Lodeiro, McGuire, Muriel, Ojeda, Torres	177	4.8%	5	2.54	+3
Angulo, Araujo, Lodeiro, McGuire, Muriel, Torres	164	4.4%	2	1.10	-1
Angulo, Araujo, Lodeiro, McGuire, Muriel, Torres	148	4.0%	4	2.43	+1
Angulo, Araujo, Cartagena, Lodeiro, McGuire, Torres	127	3.4%	1	0.71	+1

No other attacking grouping even played one game’s worth of minutes together all season, but I do want to include the statistics from three additional groupings, because as you see here they were prolific, albeit in small samples:

Attacking Group	Minutes	% of Minutes	Goals Scored	Goals per 90 Minutes	Goal Differential
Angulo, Araujo, Cartagena, Enrique, Muriel, Torres	72	2.0%	3	3.75	+2
Araujo, Cartagena, Enrique, Lodeiro, Ojeda, Torres	64	1.7%	4	5.63	+4
Angulo, Cartagena, Enrique, Lodeiro, Muriel, Torres	38	1.0%	3	7.11	+2

I do not expect that any of these groupings would actually continue to score at this rate if they played more minutes together, but the two lineups with Araújo and Cartagena seem like lineups that the Lions could use if trailing, and even the bottom row where Nico Lodeiro would be in for Araújo could be possible as well, since Cartagena is generally more of an offensive threat than Araújo if the coaching staff decided to move to one holding midfielder or if they needed to choose one of the two to sub out.

Going back to the commonly used lineups, the question still remains on whether the group of five (Ivan Angulo, Araújo, Cartagena, Martin Ojeda and Facundo Torres) should play more minutes with Ramiro Enrique or Duncan McGuire. The data says they are more efficient with McGuire, to the tune of an additional half a goal per 90 minutes, but most of the McGuire minutes with this group have been played later in the match, when Orlando City was already ahead and the opposition was tired and chasing an equalizer. Enrique’s minutes have nearly all been as a starter since mid-summer, so he generally faces a fresh defense and an even scoreline, so the defenders are not taking as many risks.

Two lineups that are not in either of these tables, because they were each used for only 30 minutes this season, are Araújo, Cartagena, Enrique, Luis Muriel, Ojeda, and Torres and Araújo, Cartagena, Enrique, McGuire, Muriel, and Torres, and they each scored one goal in their time together for a goals-per-90-minutes average of 3.00. Both of those lineups do not contain Angulo, which sacrifices his speed and recovery ability to get back on defense, but they do include every primary creative attacking player except Lodeiro. The samples are too small to be quantitatively confident in their success, but the qualitative side of looking at those names and thinking about how they could line up is one that is exciting to consider with the wealth of attacking talent that they possess.

All of that said, I am going to to cheat a little bit and choose for my six to be Angulo, Araújo, Cartagena, Duncmiro Enriguire, Ojeda, and Torres, a grouping that is +10 for the season in goal differential and averages 1.79 goals scored per 90 minutes while only giving up 0.85 goals scored per 90 minutes. The group with Enrique is better defensively, giving up 0.59 goals per 90 minutes, as compared to 1.33 for the group with McGuire, while the group with McGuire is better offensively, scoring 2.12 goals per 90 minutes, as compared to 1.61 with Enrique.

Alright, so we have our two, our four and our six, and as promised we are going to skip the eight and go to the 11. If we look at the full 11-player lineup that we chose (using Pedro Gallese as the goalkeeper), we had a back line of Santos, Jansson, Schlegel, and Smith; holding midfielders Araújo and Cartagena; attacking midfielders Angulo, Ojeda, and Torres; and Enrique or McGuire at striker. That lineup played together only twice all season, both with Enrique as the striker, and they were +3 during the 110 minutes that they were on the field together, scoring three goals and giving up zero.

It is hard to lose when you give up zero goals, though Orlando City did manage to do so against Cruz Azul (kind of, it was a shootout loss after a draw), but when you average scoring 2.45 goals per 90 minutes and give up 0.00 goals per 90 minutes, that sounds like a winning lineup.

In fact, of all the lineups that played together for more than 75 minutes this season, that lineup does have the best goal differential per 90 minutes. Just as with some of the attacking groupings, there were some lineups that had better goal differentials per 90 minutes in a limited sample size of minutes, but in looking at the groups that played the most minutes, it is the 11-man group from the previous paragraph that performed the best per 90 minutes.

The 11-man lineup that was used the most was Gallese as goalkeeper; a back line of Santos, Jansson, Schlegel, and Thórhallsson; holding midfielders Araújo and Cartagena; attacking midfielders Angulo, Ojeda, and Torres; and Enrique as striker. That group was +7 for the season in nearly 300 minutes together, a goal differential of +2.17 per 90 minutes, which is also Borat-level very nice.

While it was a rough beginning to the season for Orlando City, as the year went on the Lions settled into lineups and rotations that maximized their abilities, as evidenced by their season-ending run of 11-3-3 in all competitions since the calendar turned to July. Óscar Pareja has identified his preferred lineup, and the data and the gut feelings he has around who to play are nearly exactly matched in terms of playing the right players in combination with one another.

Whether it is the two, the four, the six or the 11, Pareja knows who to play, I reckon.

Vamos Orlando!

Orlando City

Orlando City vs. Charlotte FC: Three Keys to Victory

What do the Lions need to do to get a victory in their first playoff match of 2024?

Published

2 hours ago

October 24, 2024

David Rohe

Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

Orlando City heads into the playoffs for the fifth time in five years under Oscar Pareja this weekend, squaring off against Charlotte FC. Despite losing to Atlanta United in the final match of the MLS regular season, the Lions maintained their fourth-place position in the standings, and thus the home field advantage in their first round matchup against Charlotte. Orlando City will host the first match in the best-of-three bout at Inter&Co Stadium Sunday night.

What does Orlando City need to do to get the first of two needed wins in the first round of the playoffs?

Break Down The Defense

I know it might sound obvious, but scoring goals is necessary to win a match. Accomplishing that against Charlotte FC is easier said than done. Charlotte has only allowed 37 goals during the regular season. That’s good enough for second best behind only Seattle at 35 goals allowed.

From the start of the season, Charlotte has fielded an elite defense. Then, over the summer, the club added USMNT defender Tim Ream from Fulham. Ream might be getting up there in years, but he is still a top level defender in MLS. Behind the back line you have Kristijan Khalina in goal. Khalina is ranked third in saves this season with 119.

The Charlotte defense wants to push teams out wide and then defend the crosses that come into the box. That is why I think getting Duncan McGuire into the starting lineup is a good strategy. His size is needed in the box, assuming Orlando City can get some service from the wings. I will also say that I expect Ramiro Enrique to get the start because Pareja sticks with a lineup once he finds it.

Let’s Get Wild(er)

Wilder Cartagena was missing from Orlando City’s lineup against Atlanta United due to a yellow card suspension and it showed. It really illustrated how much better Pareja’s defensive midfield double pivot works when Cartagena and Cesar Araujo are on the field. Fortunately, he will be back in the lineup this weekend.

Cartagena’s absence wasn’t the only issue with the defense against Atlanta. Obviously, his initial replacement — Felipe Martins — was not good enough on the night. It was also Dagur Dan Thorhallsson’s first match back from injury, and you could see the rust in his play. The defense needs to find the cohesion it had during the previous seven matches. It starts with Cartagena’s return, but all the other pieces need to step up as well.

Don’t Allow the Team to Get PRO’d

Occasionally, some referees think that the match is all about them, rather than about the two teams on the field. It’s something that Orlando City has seen all too often over the years. The Lions were one (arguably bad) video review decision from a draw against Atlanta United. That can’t happen in the playoffs.

The Lions need to made sure that match officials aren’t able to determine the outcome of the match. That means playing clean, limiting mistakes, and having a big enough lead so one bad decision doesn’t swing the match against Orlando City. I bring this up because, while I don’t know who will be officiating the match, you can almost bet that it won’t be a ref with whom we’re comfortable.

That is what I will be looking for Sunday night. Let me know your thoughts in the comments below. Vamos Orlando!

Lion Links

Lion Links: 10/24/24

USWNT plays Iceland tonight, MLS reportedly planning to flip its calendar, Chicago Red Stars rebrand, and more.

Published

6 hours ago

October 24, 2024

Marcus Mitchell

Image courtesy of Orlando Pride

How’s it going, Mane Landers? I hope this Thursday finds you well as we get ready for Orlando City to kick things off in the playoffs this weekend. There’s also plenty of international women’s soccer to enjoy over the next few days. Let’s dive into today’s links from around the soccer world!

USWNT Takes On Iceland Tonight

In its first match since winning gold at the Olympics in Paris this summer, the United States Women’s National Team will take on Iceland tonight at 7:30 p.m. at Q2 Stadium in Austin. Orlando Pride defender Emily Sams may make her first appearance for the USWNT tonight and she’s one of six uncapped players called up by Head Coach Emma Hayes. The USWNT will be without some notable players from its Olympic roster, including Croix Bethune, Trinity Rodman, and Crystal Dunn. This will be the 16th meeting between the two nations and the first since the USWNT beat Iceland 5-0 in the 2022 SheBelieves Cup. The U.S will play Iceland again on Sunday before a friendly against Argentina on Wednesday.

MLS Reportedly Considering Calendar Changes

A major overhaul could be coming in MLS. According to The Athletic ($), the league is reportedly considering flipping its season’s schedule so that it runs from fall to spring. This would reflect the schedules in Europe, with breaks during the winter and summer. As a result, the thinking is that MLS teams would be able to be a bit more proactive in the summer transfer window. It would also move the playoffs to a time of the year where it doesn’t have to compete with football. The biggest question mark to the plan in my opinion would be how matches can be expected to be played in the north during the winter. It’s still early days in planning though, and MLS Executive Vice President of Sporting Product and Competition Nelson Rodriguez spoke on how the league is exploring the idea.

“We have been engaged, really, since January, and it’s been very extensive and exhaustive and deliberate,” Rodriguez said. “It’s still too early. We’re still asking questions. We’re still collecting and analyzing some data. We’re still formulating models. Some of those models are for formats themselves, some of those models are how to assess the information that we get.”

The Chicago Red Stars Rebrand

In a decision that feels odd to announce right before the playoffs, the Chicago Red Stars have rebranded themselves as just Chicago Stars FC. Despite the name change, the red star is still the center of the team’s new crest but is now on a soccer ball. While I do like how the new crest’s shape reflects the iconic marquees of the Chicago Theater and Wrigley Field, it’s a fairly lukewarm redesign. It also doesn’t scream Chicago to me, and feels more like a logo for a team in D.C. or New York. The most brilliant part of this decision was to announce it right after the BOS Nation FC debacle.

Nick Cushing Linked With Arsenal Women’s Coaching Job

New York City FC Head Coach Nick Cushing is reportedly Arsenal’s primary target for the head coaching job with the women’s soccer team. Jonas Eidevall stepped down as Arsenal’s manager with two years left on his contract, with Renee Slegers now serving as the interim coach. Cushing has a wealth of experience coaching women’s soccer in England, helping Manchester City win the Women’s Super League title in 2016 and the FA Cup in 2017. He currently has NYCFC gearing up for a playoff series against FC Cincinnati after finishing sixth in the Eastern Conference. Arsenal’s coaching job is lucrative, but it will be interesting to see if Cushing chooses to stay with City Football Group after nearly 20 years there.

Champions League Roundup

The third round of matches in the Champions League wrapped up and I’m still trying to get used to the new format. The matchups feel a bit sporadic to me and I feel like this year’s tournament will lack tension until the final couple of weeks. This week’s heavyweight match was between Barcelona and Bayern, with Raphinha netting a hat trick and Robert Lewandowski scoring against his former club in a 4-1 win for Barcelona. Liverpool won 1-0 over RB Leipzig to stay perfect so far, Manchester City cruised to a 5-0 win against Sparta Prague, and Inter Milan needed a late equalizer from Marcus Thuram to claim a 1-0 victory against Young Boys. Benfica was notably upset at home in a 3-1 loss to Feyenoord as well.

Free Kicks

The Philadelphia Union signed 20-year-old midfielder Quinn Sullivan to a contract extension through 2027 with an option for 2028. The American was eighth in this year’s 22 Under 22 list and helped the U.S. reach the quarterfinals of last year’s U-20 World Cup.
Haji Wright, Cade Cowell, and Auston Trusty were a few of the Americans playing abroad who stood out this week.
Over 200 Penarol supporters were detained after altercations with law enforcement ahead of the team’s Copa Libertadores semifinal against Botafogo in Rio de Janeiro.
Madrid and Baku are the two teams in the running to host the 2027 Champions League final after Milan was stripped of hosting last month. If Baku is chosen, it will be the first time Azerbaijan has hosted a Champions League final.

That’s all I have for you this time around. I hope you all have a fantastic Thursday and rest of your week!

Lion Links

Lion Links: 10/23/24

MLS wild card update, NYCFC will play at Citi Field, UEFA Champions League roundup, and more.

Published

1 day ago

October 23, 2024

Ben Miller

Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

Happy Wednesday, everyone! You’ve made it to the middle of the week, and everything is all downhill from here. We’ve got a bit of time before Orlando City returns to action, and it’ll be even longer before the Orlando Pride take the field again. But with the MLS Cup playoffs already underway, the UEFA Champions League returning, and the rest of the soccer world continuing on as usual, we have more than enough to talk about today. Let’s get into the links.

MLS Wild Card Round Starts

The first of two MLS wild card games took place on Tuesday evening, with Atlanta United going on the road and taking down CF Montreal on penalty kicks. The hosts clawed back from a two-goal deficit and pressed hard for a late winner but ultimately couldn’t find one. Brad Guzan then saved Tom Pearce’s penalty, Atlanta converted all five of its spot kicks, and that was enough to send the Five Stripes through to the next round against Inter Miami. At 10:30 p.m. today, attention turns to the Western Conference, when the Vancouver Whitecaps will face the Portland Timbers. The two sides played to a 1-1 draw on Sept. 28, but Portland got the better of the Whitecaps back on June 22 in a 2-0 win that saw Vancouver play most of the second half with 10 men. The winner of tonight’s match earns a trip to play LAFC on Sunday.

Citi Field Will Host NYCFC

We got confirmation on Tuesday that New York City FC will play its first-round home game against FC Cincinnati at Citi Field, the home of the New York Mets. NYCFC has been splitting time this year between that venue, Yankee Stadium, and even Red Bull Arena on occasion, and with both the Mets and New York Yankees making deep postseason runs, and the New York Red Bulls in the playoffs themselves, it was anyone’s guess as to where the match would be played. The Mets’ elimination solved that issue, although between this instance and Vancouver being unable to host its match against Portland, despite finishing above the Timbers, due to a supercross race, venue selection during the MLS postseason has had a much bigger spotlight on it than it should.

UEFA Champions League Roundup

The UEFA Champions League was back in action on Tuesday, and there’s plenty to catch up on. Of chief interest to American fans, Christian Pulisic opened the scoring in AC Milan’s 3-1 win over Club Brugge with an Olimpico. The goalkeeper probably should have done better, but a goal is a goal, and it continued Pulisic’s hot start to the season.

CHRISTIAN PULISIC OLIMPICO GOAL FOR AC MILAN TO OPEN THE SCORING IN THE CHAMPIONS LEAGUE.

UNREAL! 🔥 pic.twitter.com/HkriaFsldT
— USMNT Only (@usmntonly) October 22, 2024

Elsewhere, Real Madrid produced five second-half goals to complete a 5-2 comeback win against Borussia Dortmund, Monaco scored the same amount to beat Red Star Belgrade 5-1, and Aston Villa beat Bologna 2-0 to make it three wins from three and go top of the table.

U-17 U.S. Women Win Handily

The U-17 USWNT continued its campaign in the U-17 Women’s World Cup on Tuesday by cruising past South Korea 5-0. The baby Yanks got off to a hot start, with Melanie Barcenas opening up the scoring just a minute into the game. Kennedy Fuller doubled the advantage in the 10th minute, and Barcenas then got her brace just two minutes after the halftime restart. Mary Angela Long got in on the action with just over 20 minutes to play, before Maddie Abrianna Padelski rounded off the scoring late. The U.S will face Nigera in the quarterfinals, after the African nation finished top of Group A while exhibiting some impressive offensive firepower in the process.