Orlando City
Orlando City’s Defense Must Start Rocking Right Now
Orlando City’s defensive struggles and the historical risks of giving up an average of more than two goals per game.

Rob Base and DJ E-Z Rock penned a song in 1988 that became a staple on dance floors and in sports arenas everywhere, and it will probably remain so for years to come. That song is the classic single “It Takes Two,” a favorite of mine for as long as I can remember. The reason I bring it up here is not because of Rob Base and his excellent flow, but rather because in three of the four games this season “it takes two” was also the answer to the question “how many goals will the Lions need to score to at least give themselves a chance to earn a point?”
Sadly, in the other game of the first four it was not it takes two but rather it takes two times two, or perhaps it it takes two two times, when the Lions gave up four goals in the season opener.
The regular season is 34 games long, and with only four games played, Orlando City still has 88% of its games remaining. And, with one win and one draw among those first four games, the Lions have earned four points, which is better than last season, when they had only earned one point after their first four games. That team went on to make it all the way to the Eastern Conference final, so we should not overreact to a slow start.
And really, the slow start is only on the defensive side, because the offense has scored nine goals, tying for second in MLS so far, and it is also among the top teams in shots (second), shots on target (third), goals per shot (seventh), and goals per shot on target (sixth).
I wanted to look a little more at the defense this week, and in particular look at that ugly stat around giving up at least two goals in every game. I looked back at the last three seasons in MLS to see how many regular-season games a team gave up at least two goals, and I was both heartened and disheartened by what I found. Here are the results, broken out by each team’s final position (reminder that the regular season is 34 games):
Final Position | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | Three-Year Avg. |
---|---|---|---|---|
Champion | 11 | 13 | 19 | 14.3 |
Runner-Up | 4 | 12 | 14 | 10.0 |
Conf. Finalist | 14.0 | 10.0 | 13.5 | 12.5 |
Conf. Semi-Finalist | 13.0 | 12.3 | 13.8 | 13.0 |
Conf. Quarter-Finalist | 13.2 | 12.1 | 13.5 | 12.9 |
Wild Card | N/A | 14.5 | 19 | 16.8 |
Did Not Make Playoffs | 17.5 | 15.8 | 19.5 | 17.6 |
It was heartening to see that the average across every final position that ended in the playoffs was at least 10 games, and most were at least 12.5. I had thought it would be a lower average, so based on Orlando City’s early performances, I was glad to see that it was higher than I thought.
Though it is not in the chart above, the average for all playoff teams during the three seasons was 13.1 games of giving up at least two goals. That is approximately 38% of a season, so the average playoff team gave up at least two goals in nearly two out of every five games. This was also more than I thought, and it means that Orlando City can pretty quickly get back onto a similar pace with a good run of defensive form.
While I was happy to see that most teams — even teams that went deep into the playoffs — had posted double-digit games of shipping two or more goals, that still does not change the fact that Orlando City is on pace to give up two or more goals in…let me check my math here….every game this season. A four-game sample is a small one, and it would not be wise to make any firm conclusions off of that, but it is simple math to look at the three-year averages for the teams that went deep into the playoffs and to calculate that Orlando City is already around one-third of the way there, with nearly 90% of the season left to play. Disheartening.
The obvious question is why are the Lions giving up so many goals, and, as was discussed a bit on the most recent episode of The Mane Land PawedCast, the team has started four different defensive lineups in four games, and the Lions will make it five for five during this week’s game against D.C. United, as Pedro Gallese was called up to Peru’s national team, so Javier Otero will likely be the starter in goal. The back line in front of Otero will probably be a repeat of a lineup that has already been used, but the lack of continuity in defense has certainly contributed to some of the issues in the first four games.
Head Coach Óscar Pareja has pointed to individual mistakes that need to be cleaned up for the results to improve, but the team as a whole has allowed the fourth-most shots on target this season, an average of 5.75 per game. Using expected goals as a measure for the danger of the locations of the shots allowed, Orlando City is giving up shots from the second-most dangerous locations across MLS, making it unsurprising that its opponents have put so many shots on target per game and converted 10 of those shots into goals. Individual mistakes certainly contributed, and Robin Jansson was called for a questionable foul that gave the Red Bulls an undeserved penalty kick, but the issues seem to be a little deeper than just a few mistakes that need to be cleaned up.
Or, perhaps it is a few individual mistakes, a lack of continuity on the back line and also some bad luck. Six of the goals allowed have been from within four yards, one was a penalty kick, and one was shot into a wide open goal after Rodrigo Schlegel took perhaps the worst touch in his professional career. According to Opta’s tracking, Orlando City only gave up five goals from four yards or closer in 2024, and for that number to already be six this season seems like an aberration more than a new normal. The team also opened the season against Philadelphia, and after four games played, the Union lead the league in goals scored. That was also the game when Jansson was unexpectedly scratched from the starting lineup just minutes before the opening kickoff, changing the defensive game plan considerably.
Maybe that is me seeing the glass half full instead of half empty, but these are the same defensive players as last season, with the exception of Alex Freeman playing instead of Dagur Dan Thórhallsson for most of the minutes at right back. The defensive statistics were much better in 2024 than thus far in 2025, and Freeman is not a downgrade from Thórhallsson, so I think a positive regression to the mean will be coming. The 2024 team also gave up 10 goals in the first four games, 2.5 goals per game, but then gave up 40 goals in the next 30 regular-season games, a reduction of more than one goal per game, from 2.5 to 1.33.
The Lions’ defense has the talent and the experience to do something similar this year, especially as the players spend more minutes together, and there is no time like the present to have their first game of giving up fewer than two goals. I do not think it is too much to ask, and if the players are looking for some inspiration, they could get that by watching the Orlando Pride’s defensive players, who are coached by former Orlando City defender Seb Hines.
Let’s hope that the defense can, to quote Rob Base, make this thing go right.
Vamos Orlando!
Opinion
Predicting Orlando City’s June Results
It’s time to take a glimpse into the future and predict how Orlando City will fare during the month of June.

We’re almost to the end of what’s been an extremely packed month of May for Orlando City. After the conclusion of Saturday’s match against the Chicago Fire, the Lions will have played nine matches in the span of 28 days. OCSC has basically played a match every three days, which is an absurd pace. Other than two recent blemishes, Orlando has mostly handled it exceedingly well though, and June presents a much lighter schedule for our brave heroes.
The Lions play just three games next month and will have two weeks off between Saturday’s match against the Fire and their next game. Without any further ado, I will now attempt to peer into the crystal ball and predict the results of Orlando’s three games in June.
Saturday, June 14 — at Colorado Rapids
Orlando will return to action after a two-week layoff by hopping on the purple plane and flying west to take on Colorado. The Rapids are currently eighth in a crowded Western conference table with 22 points, and they are 10 points off the Vancouver Whitecaps at the top of the table. They’ve put together a pretty even season so far with a record of 6-6-4 (W-L-D). The biggest problem for Colorado has been scoring goals, as the Rapids only have 18 goals in 16 games and have been held scoreless five times in the league. They have this week off, and won’t return to action until June 7, when they host Austin FC. I give Orlando City the edge in this match, and hopefully that extra rest will help the good guys hang tough at altitude. The Lions have been defensively sound recently — when they’ve had all 11 men on the field — while also still being able to put the ball in the back of the net several times a game. Shutting down Djordje Mihailovic is going to be key, but I like Orlando’s chances given its recent form and the fact that the Lions will be well rested.
Prediction: Orlando City 3-1 Colorado Rapids.
Wednesday, June 25 — at St. Louis City
I refuse to capitalize every letter in “City” in St. Louis City’s name, because frankly I think it’s a ridiculous stylistic choice. The team also hasn’t been very good this year, so it doesn’t deserve me catering to it in that manner. St. Louis is currently 2-8-5 and only truly woeful campaigns by CF Montreal and the LA Galaxy are saving it from leading the Wooden Spoon race with 11 points. It makes Colorado look like an offensive juggernaut, as it’s only scored 11 goals in 15 games. St. Louis isn’t bad defensively, as it’s only conceded 20 goals, but it’s always going to be a struggle when you average scoring just 0.73 goals a game. Its form was enough to get Head Coach Olof Mellberg fired, and he lasted just over six months on the job. The club hasn’t won since a March 15 match against the Galaxy and has a tricky upcoming slate, with a home match against the San Jose Earthquakes on Saturday, an away game against the Portland Timbers on June 8, and a home match against the Galaxy on June 14. With a week and a half between the Colorado match and this one, I once again like Orlando City in this game. Unless St. Louis can find its shooting boots, I don’t see it offering much threat against a rested Orlando defense that has come on strong since a shaky start to the year.
Prediction: Orlando City 2-0 St. Louis City.
Saturday, June 28 — vs. FC Cincinnati
OCSC wraps up June by returning home to play one of the best teams in the Eastern Conference on short rest. It isn’t ideal, but it isn’t the worst thing in the world either. Cincy has been good this year, compiling a record of 9-4-3 and 30 points to sit second in the East. New signings Evander and Kevin Denkey have been as good as you would expect, as Evander has seven goals and five assists in 14 appearances, and Denkey has nine goals in 15 games. As a team, Cincinnati has scored 24 goals and conceded 22, so it’s been a balanced campaign to this point. It’ll be coming to the end of a stretch of three straight road games, as Cincy will be away to the New England Revolution on June 14 and then at CF Montreal on June 25, so it’ll also be traveling on short rest. That said, aside from the Philadelphia Union, Cincy is the toughest team the Lions will have faced in MLS play, and stopping both Evander and Denkey is far from an easy task. This reeks of a draw that has a couple of goals for each team, so that’s what I’ll be going with.
Prediction: Orlando City 2-2 FC Cincinnati.
There you have it. I’ve scrutinized the tea leaves and you now know what the path ahead holds for the Lions. Be sure to check back in at the end of June so you can marvel at how stunningly accurate my forecast was. Until then, feel free to either disagree or tell me how crystal clear my visions are down in the comments. Vamos Orlando!
Lion Links
Lion Links: 5/30/25
Orlando City players called up, Orlando Pride sign Simone Jackson, USWNT gets ready to play China, and more.

Happy Friday! It’s been a bit of a brutal week, but we’ve made it through. Our reward is an exciting weekend of soccer to enjoy to close out the month. I’ll be spending most of the weekend working, but it should still be a nice next few days. Let’s dive right into today’s links from around the soccer world.
Lions Called Up For International Duty
Orlando City goalkeeper Pedro Gallese was predictably called up for Peru’s CONMEBOL World Cup qualifiers. Peru is ninth in the standings and will take on Colombia June 6 before hosting Ecuador on June 10.
Defender David Brekalo was called up by Slovenian for a pair of friendlies against Luxembourg and Bosnia and Herzegovina. These matches will help prepare Slovenia for World Cup qualifying this fall against Sweden, Switzerland, and Kosovo.
A few Young Lions are also heading to Europe for the UEFA Friendship Cup in Switzerland. The U.S. will represent Concacaf at the U-18 tournament, and OCB players Justin Ellis, Colin Guske, and Jackson Platts were called up for it.
Orlando Pride Sign Simone Jackson
The Orlando Pride signed forward Simone Jackson to a contract through the 2028 season. Jackson played at the University of Southern California for four years, recording 22 goals and 13 assists in 75 games, and trained with the Pride during the preseason. Internationally, she’s represented the U.S. at various youth levels and scored a goal in the 2022 FIFA U-20 Women’s World Cup. The 22-year-old gives Orlando some helpful depth up front and can develop her game learning from some of the best attackers in the sport as well.
USWNT Prepares For Friendly Against China
The United States Women’s National Team will take on China Saturday at Allianz Field in St. Paul, MN in the first of two friendlies during this international window. Orlando Pride defenders Emily Sams and Kerry Abello were both called up to join a young roster as the team builds a foundation before the 2027 Women’s World Cup. Goalkeeper will continue to be a position to watch, as opportunity knocks for Phallon Tullis-Joyce, Mandy McGlynn, and Claudia Dickey to stake a claim as the team’s starter. Following this match, the USWNT will take on Jamaica in St. Louis on Tuesday before a pair of friendlies against Ireland later in June.
Denver’s NWSL Team Hires First General Manager
Denver’s NWSL team hired Curt Johnson to serve as the club’s first general manager. He will have the opportunity to build the team’s roster and staff from the ground up before the team takes the field as an expansion side in 2026. Johnson left the North Carolina Courage in December and was the chief soccer officer when the club dominated the league in 2018 and 2019. It looks like a solid hire in my opinion and I’m interested to see what kind of team he puts together in Denver.
Free Kicks
- Racing Louisville forward Kayla Fischer was suspended for an additional two games for pulling Madison Hammond down to the ground by her hair. As a result, she’ll miss Louisville’s game against the Pride on June 20.
- Washington Spirit Head Coach Jonatan Giraldez is reportedly in talks to manage OL Lyonnes.
- The Independent Review Panel rescinded the second yellow card Chicago Fire midfielder Dje D’Avilla received on May 25, meaning he’ll be available for the Fire’s game against Orlando on Saturday.
- AC Milan fired Sergio Conceicao after finishing eighth in the Serie A standings and losing in the Italian Cup final. The club has reportedly reached an agreement with Massimiliano Allegri for him to take over as manager.
- Angel Di Maria will return to his boyhood club of Rosario Central in Argentina’s top flight. The 37-year-old started his career at Rosario in 2005. He’ll still play for Benfica in the Club World Cup this summer.
That’s all I have for you today. I hope you all have a fantastic Friday and rest of your weekend!
Orlando City
Orlando City vs. Chicago Fire: Three Keys to Victory
What do the Lions need to do to secure a victory against Chicago at home?

Orlando City ends May the way it began, with a match against the Chicago Fire. The Lions are coming off a wild and disappointing match against rival Atlanta United. I always worry about a team after such an emotional outing, and on short rest to boot, especially since the Fire were off during the midweek. How the team reacts will determine the result. What does Orlando City need to do to take all three points from Chicago at home?
Defend this House
Much like the last time, Orlando City will need to deal with Hugo Cuypers and the rest of Chicago’s attack. The Lions likely won’t get the benefit of having Chris Brady sent off in the 36th minute again, meaning they will need to defend more attacks for a longer time. In the last match, Chicago took 16 shots, putting eight of those on target. Limiting those chances will be critical.
I expect to see Alex Freeman, Rodrigo Schlegel, Robin Jansson, and David Brekalo starting on the back line despite having done so Wednesday night. No cheap giveaways, no errant arms away from the body in the box, just solid defending for 90 plus minutes. The Lions will have to do it without Cesar Araujo, thanks to his sending off against Atlanta. I think they can, but it will be more difficult without him.
Atuesta Ahoy
Eduard Atuesta played the full 90 minutes against the Portland Timbers, and then played limited minutes against Atlanta United. I completely agreed with that strategy, because he did not need to be playing too many minutes so soon after returning. He is also working back to full fitness. He will be rested for this home match, and the pitch conditions will be much better.
We were reminded of how good he is in the attacking midfield in that match against Portland. I need him to provide those slicing passes through tiny windows against the Chicago defense. Joran Gerbet has proven to be a steal in the draft, but he doesn’t yet have that extra bit of quality you see from Atuesta. Look for him to break Chicago’s lines.
Early and Often
Orlando City will come in on three days rest, whereas Chicago will be on six days rest. This match will also be the Lions’ ninth match in May — their seventh in the league and two more in the U.S. Open Cup. To say that tired legs will be a concern is an understatement. As such, Orlando City needs to jump out to an early lead as it did against Atlanta.
Fortunately, there was more rotation in the attack on Wednesday for Orlando City with Ramiro Enrique getting the start. That means Luis Muriel will be fresh for a start on the much nicer grass at Inter&Co Stadium. I’ll take a goal from Muriel, or frankly any Orlando player. Heck, Jansson is due for one, right? Multiple goals will likely be needed to secure a victory.
That is what I will be looking for Sunday night. Let me know your in the comments below. Vamos Orlando!
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