Orlando City
What Orlando City’s First 10 Matches May Indicate for 2025
How Orlando City has performed historically after the first 10 games and a projection for how the 2025 team will do in games 11-34.

There is no specific reason for why we use a base-10 number system, perhaps because most of us have 10 fingers that can easily be used for counting, but it is clear from many examples in all walks of life that people like to use nice round numbers whenever possible, and in particular like to use multiples of 10 for convenience. Top 10 lists or rankings abound, and often we hear about the performance during the last 10 events. As a mathematician, I like using 10 as a denominator, because it is simple to create a percentage out of 10 and most people can easily understand the significance of a high or low percentage when making an argument.
Significance is a loaded word in mathematics, as is power, as both have specific definitions as it relates to statistics (ask your nerd friends, or ask me, also a nerd, in the comments), but for this case, we are going to use the English major definitions of significance and power and take a look at Orlando City’s results during the team’s first 10 MLS regular-season games to see what the numbers might tell us about what we can expect during the rest of the season.
Below is a table of Orlando City’s points earned per game through games 1-10 during each of the club’s MLS seasons, with 2020 excluded due to the difference in that season due to COVID-19.
Season | Games 1-10 | Games 11+ |
---|---|---|
2015 | 0.90 | 1.46 |
2016 | 1.10 | 1.25 |
2017 | 1.90 | 0.83 |
2018 | 1.90 | 0.38 |
2019 | 1.20 | 1.09 |
2020 | N/A | N/A |
2021 | 2.10 | 1.50 |
2022 | 1.70 | 1.41 |
2023 | 1.40 | 1.85 |
2024 | 0.90 | 1.53 |
2025 | 1.60 | TBD (ideally, 3.00) |
Looking at these comparisons, for the most part, the performance during the first 10 games seems to have little bearing on the results during the rest of the season. These are not even splits. The MLS regular season is 34 games long, so the third column is 24 games’ worth of data while the second column is only 10, but even though the games played totals are different between the columns, we see vastly different performance in the time periods. Hot early starts lead to cold periods later, or vice versa, and in seven of nine seasons, the difference in points per game between the first 10 games and the final 24 was at least 0.29. For context, a drop of 0.29 points per game this season would take Orlando City from eighth to 19th in the overall table, and an increase of 0.29 would move the Lion into fourth.
The sample size of this data is pretty small at just nine seasons, and the reality of sports is that despite the romanticism of teams from the past and how some teams allegedly have winning DNA while others are cursed by teams of yore, the performance of (for example) the 2018 Orlando City team has no bearing on how the 2025 team will perform, since there are no players still with this year’s team from that team and the coaching staff has changed as well. And thank goodness, because in 2018 it was all caps UGLY down the stretch — only two wins in the final 24 games and the Lions were outscored 58-23 in those 24 games. Yuck.
While 2018 thankfully has no bearing on today’s Orlando City, the 2024 team’s performance does have some impact. Many of the key players on this year’s team were also on the team last year, and with the same head coach in place, the team is playing a similar style as it did last season. There are differences in personnel and style though, and even among the players who are back some have improved and some have declined. Additionally, during the opening 10 games of the 2024 season, Orlando City was also playing in the Concacaf Champions Cup, whereas in 2025 the Lions have had a steady one-game-per-week pace since the season opener.
While I would like to see the type of improvement in 2025 that we saw from the Lions in 2023 and 2024, I have some concerns about the fact that based on their opponents’ average points earned per game, the Lions have had the easiest schedule thus far this season and the hardest remaining schedule left. The Lions have played teams that average earning 1.13 points per game so far, and haven’t yet played teams that average earning 1.52 points per game. In particular, Orlando City still has to go to Charlotte, Cincinnati, Columbus, and Miami — all of which average at least 1.90 points per game, and all of those teams and Vancouver (2.30, best in MLS) will come to Inter&Co Stadium before the end of the season.
That is nine games remaining against the teams in first, second, third, fourth, and fifth in MLS, and no other team has a harder set of nine games remaining. That said, even though it may not feel like it due to the recent run of draws, after 10 games, Orlando City is actually tied for eighth overall in MLS in points per game and is fourth overall in goal differential (+6). This early in the season, it also means there are a lot of quirks in the schedule that will be less impactful over time, such as the fact that 40% of Orlando City’s games have been against the New York Red Bulls and Philadelphia Union.
Óscar Pareja’s Orlando City teams have always played solid soccer during games 11-34, and although some seasons did see a slight decline from the performance during games 1-10, it was never a decline down to the level of a team that frequently loses. This year’s team is a strong team with a defense that is gelling already (436 minutes and counting without giving up a goal) and an offense that is one of the most prolific in MLS, even while dealing with a lot of injuries.
I am a little concerned about having dropped points against some teams off to cold starts and also with the difficulty of the remaining schedule, but I think those teams are concerned about having to play Orlando City too. And they should be, because the Lions do not have any glaring weaknesses and, if anything, have actually underperformed, as will happen when you receive two red cards and are forced to play with 10 players in eminently winnable games.
That brings us back to 10, and while I do not give the start to this season a 10 in the style of Billy Bob from Varsity Blues, I do think Orlando City has performed well and is definitely one of the better teams in the league. I do not think that the club’s historical performance in games 11-34 will play any role in where this club finishes, but I think the talent and depth the Lions have already shown will, and I am holding to my prediction from the preseason that this is a top 10 team.
Orlando City
Orlando City vs. Colorado Rapids: Player Grades and Man of the Match
How did your favorite Lions perform in Orlando City’s 1-0 win over the Colorado Rapids?

Orlando City used a professional performance to defeat the Colorado Rapids 1-0 near the Mile High City. It’s a big win for the Lions after two consecutive losses to Atlanta United and the Chicago Fire. It also gives the team some good vibes heading into next week’s international break.
Let’s take a look at the individual performances in this big win.
Starters
GK, Pedro Gallese, 8 (MotM) — Gallese had a massive game for his eighth clean sheet of the season. The shot stopper was credited with two saves and they were both quality. In the 50th minute, he made a one-handed save on a Rafael Navarro header and pushed Djordje Milhailovic’s shot wide while defending his near post in the 72nd minute. Apart from his goalkeeping, Gallese touched the ball 32 times, completing 38.5% of his 26 passes, including four of his 20 long balls. He was also credited with three clearances.
D, David Breaklo, 6 — The starting left back touched the ball 63 times and completed 91.8% of his 49 passes. He completed two of his three long balls, but his lone cross was incomplete. Brekalo also recorded one interception, won an aerial duel, and had eight clearances defensively. He didn’t have any attacking statistics, contributing to the clean sheet.
D, Robin Jansson, 6.5 — Jansson had 65 touches, completing 93.1% of his team-high 58 passes, including four of his seven long balls. He won one tackle and had four clearances defensively. The center back was a bright spot early, making a couple of huge challenges to keep Colorado from getting free chances on goal. Overall, it was a strong performance by the captain.
D, Rodrigo Schlegel, 7 — Schlegel got a first-half booking that sees him suspended for the next game, but the center back was a monster in this game. He had a team-high 86 touches and completed 87.5% of his 56 passes but only one of his five long balls. However, his strength was defensively, where Schlegel recorded an interception and two blocked shots, won three aerial duels, and had an astounding 21 clearances. Despite defending for most of the game, the center back put a shot on target as well.
D, Dagur Dan Thorhallsson, 5.5 — Thorhallsson had 38 touches, completing 85.7% of his 21 passes without attempting any long balls or crosses. The right back added two clearances and a blocked shot defensively. He made some mistakes in his own half that created some issues and didn’t get into the attack at all in this game before being replaced by Kyle Smith in the 72nd minute.
MF, Ivan Angulo, 5.5 — Angulo touched the ball 39 times, completing 83.3% of his 30 passes but didn’t attempt any crosses. The midfielder didn’t attempt any shots either. Defensively, Angulo added a clearance and won an aerial duel, but it was largely an invisible night by the speedster.
MF, Eduard Atuesta, 6 — Atuesta had 65 touches and completed 77.6% of his 49 passes, including a key pass and one of his two long balls. He didn’t take any shots, but the defensive midfielder’s focus was on defense. He recorded one tackle, two aerial duels won, three interceptions, and two clearances in a strong performance. He was replaced by Colin Guske in second-half stoppage time.
MF, Joran Gerbet, 6 — Gerbet got the start over Cesar Araujo in this game due to back spasms for Araujo, touching the ball 57 times. The rookie completed 88.4% of his 43 passes without attempting any long balls or crosses. Like Atuesta, his job was defensive as he had three interceptions, won two aerial duels, and logged five clearances in 90 minutes of action.
MF, Marco Pasalic, 7 — Pasalic was trouble for the Rapids defense. He touched the ball 31 times and completed 86.4% of his 22 passes, including three key passes and his lone long ball. The midfielder’s most significant moment came in the 24th minute, when great vision and a good pass found Martin Ojeda for the game’s long goal. Pasalic took two shots, putting one on target. The attacker left the game in the 72nd minute, replaced by Ramiro Enrique.
F, Luis Muriel, 5.5 — Muriel had 26 touches, completing 80% of his 15 passes with a key pass. The forward took two shots, putting neither on target. He also helped defensively, winning an aerial duel, recording a tackle, and adding a clearance before being replaced by Araujo in the 58th minute. Overall, it wasn’t an impressive performance by the Designated Player.
F, Martin Ojeda, 7 — Ojeda was a game-changer, touching the ball 52 times and completing 90.9% of his 44 passes with a key pass, and connecting on one of his two crosses and his lone long ball. He put one of his two shots on target, a hard attempt that went off the hands of Nico Hansen and in for the game’s only goal. It was a good performance for Ojeda, who came off in second-half stoppage time for Nico Rodriguez.
Substitutes
MF, Cesar Araujo (58’), 6 — Araujo replaced Muriel in the 58th minute as the Lions looked to defend their 1-0 lead. The defensive midfielder had 34 touches and completed 96.4% of his 28 passes, including one key pass. He added a tackle and blocked shot in 32 minutes of action, helping to secure the clean sheet.
D, Kyle Smith (72’), 6 — Smith came on for Thorhallsson in the 72nd minute, touching the ball 23 times at right back. He completed 55.6% of his nine passes with an incomplete long ball and through ball. However, Smith’s contribution came on defense, where he added a tackle, four clearances, and two successful aerial duels to help secure the three points.
F, Ramiro Enrique (72’), 6.5 — Enrique came on for Pasalic in the 72nd minute and was solid in his 18 minutes. He had 10 touches and completed 75% of his eight passes without taking any shots. However, he did precisely what his team needed, holding up the ball, winning an aerial duel, and keeping possession late. His wise decision-making is why he gets such a high grade.
MF, Colin Guske (90 + 1’), N/A — Guske came on for Atuesta in the dying minutes to kill some time. He got booked right after coming on, touching the ball only three times and adding a clearance.
MF, Nico Rodriguez (90 + 1’), N/A — Rodriguez came on with Guske for Ojeda and had nearly an identical performance minus the booking. He touched the ball three times, won an aerial duel, and had a clearance defensively.
That’s how I saw the individual performances in this crucial win for the Lions. Let us know what you thought of the game in the comments below and don’t forget to vote on your Man of the Match.
Lion Links
Lion Links: 6/16/25
Lions and Pride win, USMNT beats Trinidad & Tobago in Gold Cup opener, FIFA Club World Cup weekend recap, and more.

Hello, Mane Landers! I hope all is well with you and belated happy Father’s Day to all you dads out there. The Lions and the Pride both won while OCB was off this weekend. We’ve got plenty to cover today, so let’s get to the links.
Lions Blank Colorado Rapids on the Road
Orlando City defeated the Colorado Rapids 1-0 Saturday at Dick’s Sporting Goods Park. Martin Ojeda scored the lone goal for the Lions in the first half to snap their two-match winless streak. Goalkeeper Pedro Gallese made two saves and earned his eighth clean sheet of the season. With the win, Orlando moved up to fifth in the Eastern Conference standings with 30 points. Orlando City will be off this weekend but will be return to action June 25 on the road at St. Louis City.
Banda’s Goal Lifts Pride Over Bay FC
The Orlando Pride defeated Bay FC 1-0 Friday at PayPal Park in San Jose, CA. After a scoreless first half, Barbra Banda scored the only goal in the match — her eighth goal of the season — and the Pride held on for the win. It’s the team’s third straight 1-0 victory over Bay FC, and the Pride also claimed their fifth clean sheet of the season. Orlando has won three matches in a row and remains second in the NWSL table with 25 points. The Pride will be on the road to take on Racing Louisville Friday.
USMNT Dominates Trinidad & Tobago in Gold Cup Opener
The U.S. Men’s National Team beat Trinidad & Tobago 5-0 Sunday in the opening match of the Concacaf Gold Cup at PayPal Park. Orlando City defender Alex Freeman started the match and played 90 minutes. Malik Tillman scored twice, and Patrick Agyemang added one to give the USMNT a 3-0 lead before halftime. In the second half, Brenden Aaronson and Haji Wright each added a goal to extend the USMNT’s lead to 5-0. With the win, the Yanks snapped a four-match winless streak. The USMNT will take on Saudi Arabia Thursday night at Q2 Stadium in Austin, TX.
FIFA Club World Cup Weekend Recap
The 2025 FIFA Club World Cup kicked off on Saturday, with Inter Miami and Al Ahly playing to a scoreless draw in the opening match of the group stage. Miami goalkeeper Oscar Ustari made eight saves, including a penalty kick saved in the 43rd minute against Trezeguet of Al Ahly as the teams split the points. On Sunday, Jamal Musiala scored a hat trick as Bayern Munich crushed Auckland City 10-0, Paris Saint-Germain routed Atletico Madrid 4-0, and Palmeiras and FC Porto ended in a scoreless draw. The Seattle Sounders battled Botafogo in the late match. Today’s matchups feature Chelsea taking on LAFC, Boca Juniors facing Benfica, and Flamengo taking on Esperance Sportive de Tunis.
Tampa Bay Sun Wins USL Super League Championship
The Tampa Bay Sun defeated Fort Lauderdale United 1-0 after extra time to win the inaugural USL Super League championship on Saturday at Riverfront Stadium in Tampa. Former Pride players Jordyn Listro and Erika Tymrak were part of the squad’s stellar run to its first championship title in the inaugural season of the USL Super League. After no goals came from either side during the 90 minutes of play, the match went to extra time, and Cecilie Floe scored the winning goal for the Sun. Sydny Nasello was named the 2025 USL Super League Final MVP.
Free Kicks
- Check out this video on Orlando City’s social media pages featuring some players giving their dads a surprise phone call on Father’s Day.
- PayPal Park will host the 2025 NWSL Championship match on Nov. 22.
- Liverpool has reached an agreement to sign former Bayer Leverkusen midfielder Florian Wirtz.
- Italy has reportedly named Gennaro Gattuso as its next manager of the Men’s National Team, one week after former manager Luciano Spalletti was fired.
That will do it for me today, Mane Landers. Enjoy your Monday, and I’ll see you next time.
Orlando City
Orlando City at Colorado Rapids: Five Takeaways
Here’s what we learned from Orlando City’s 1-0 road victory over the Colorado Rapids.

Orlando City traveled to Denver to take on the Colorado Rapids. The Lions were able to secure a 1-0 win over the Western Conference opponent thanks to a first-half goal from Martin Ojeda. The victory snapped the team’s two-match losing streak, allowing Orlando City to keep pace in the Eastern Conference. Here are my five takeaways from Saturday night’s match.
Oh-Yay-Da
For too many seasons it seemed like Orlando City wasn’t getting the most out of the club’s Designated Players. That hasn’t been the case this year, nor was it in the match against Colorado, at least for two of the DPs. Marco Pasalic made a nice pass to Martin Ojeda in the box to get the assist on Orlando City’s first goal. For his part, Ojeda hit it low, hard, and on target. Sometimes that is all you need. Despite getting a hand on it, goalkeeper Nico Hansen wasn’t able to keep it out, and the Lions took the lead.
An Expected Yellow
Most of you are not in the internal Slack chat for The Mane Land, but we discussed that there was a high probability that at least one of Orlando City’s center backs would get a yellow card, making that player unavailable for the next match. Rodrigo Schlegel proved us correct in the 31st minute when he fouled Djordje Mihailovic just outside the box. Fortunately, the foul was outside the box, and Colorado wasn’t able to capitalize on the opportunity. Hopefully, it won’t have an ill effect on the next match.
Early Defensive Shell
On the road with a one-goal lead and Schlegel on a yellow, Oscar Pareja got defensive early in the second half. We saw the return of Cesar Araujo — who did not get the start and, according to Pareja’s postgame comments, nearly didn’t make the trip because of back spasms this week — in the 58th minute for Luis Muriel. As Muriel hadn’t contributed much to the match, it was important to get fresh legs and an experienced player to help fend off the constant Colorado pressure. Orlando didn’t park the bus, but definitely went into game management mode, hoping to hit on the occasional counter.
Primo El Pulpo
Pedro Gallese was only credited with two saves in the match, but he definitely contributed much more than that. There was about a 10-minute a stretch of time from the 50th minute on that Colorado was creating more chances in and around the box. Pedro made one of his saves, blocked a couple of dangerous crosses that would have gone in without his play, and at least a few clearances. He added his second save, and generally did well to control his area. The two saves were both good ones. He’s not going to get a save-of-the-week award from MLS, but it was enough for me. It’s hard to argue with a clean sheet.
Attitude over Altitude
The early goal was important, as it allowed Orlando City to slow the match down and conserve energy as the minutes ticked by. This was especially noticeable after Araujo came on in the second half. The importance of the goal really showed late in the match, as many of the starters bounced up against the wall created by the altitude, as teams typically run out of gas in Colorado between the 60th and 75th minutes. The late subs, including youngsters Colin Guske and Nico Rodriguez, were able to help see it out despite Colorado pressing for the equalizer.
That is what I saw in the road victory. Let us know your thoughts about the Colorado match in the comments below. Vamos Orlando!
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