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Thoughts on Orlando City’s Maiden Concacaf Champions League Voyage

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2 years ago

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Dan MacDonald, The Mane Land

Orlando City’s first-ever Concacaf Champions League campaign came to an end Wednesday night. The Lions drew Tigres UANL 1-1 at Exploria Stadium, but exited the competition on the away goals rule. Now that I’ve had some time to process OCSC’s inaugural campaign in the continental competition, I wanted to summarize my thoughts on the two games Orlando played, and speculate on what we can learn and predict based on those 180 minutes.

For starters, the club, players, and fans can — and absolutely should — hold their heads high. Tigres was quite possibly the toughest draw the Lions could have been given in the first round. The Mexican outfit has the most expensive roster in the tournament, and they’re frequently among the best teams, if not the best team, Mexico has to offer. Orlando went toe to toe with Los Tigres over 180 minutes, and the overall performance is one that the team can be proud of. You only have to look at Austin FC’s debacle against an inspirational AC Violette side to see that things could have gone much, much worse.

With that being said, I think its fair to say that Tigres is, and was the better team over 180 minutes. I found this to be particularly pronounced from my place in The Wall on Wednesday night. Sometimes it’s difficult to tell on the broadcast, but watching live I was struck by how the Tigres players seemed quicker, more physical, and more technical than their Orlando counterparts. Some of the Lions’ sloppiness can maybe be attributed to nerves and only being a few games into their season, but to my eye the Mexican side simply enjoyed a physical superiority that was always going to make this one an uphill battle.

The Lions having a chance at all in this tie was in large part to Pedro Gallese. He might very well be in the best vein of form that he’s ever had in an Orlando City jersey, and his 15 saves across the two matches made for an absurd performance, with some truly exceptional stops to keep the Lions in the fight.

That’s why it’s such a shame that OCSC wasn’t able to muster more on the offensive end of things. I’m willing to give a bit of a pass to the first leg at El Volcan. Getting a scoreless draw in that environment is a perfectly acceptable result, and it’s something that I think most of us were, and are, happy with. What will inspire regret is the missed chances at Exploria on Wednesday. Ivan Angulo’s shot missed the target by what looked like mere inches, and Ramiro Enrique could only fire right at Nahuel Guzman, while Facundo Torres had a shot deflected straight into the goalkeeper’s arms. Duncan McGuire couldn’t put the last kick of the game on target with Guzman out of his net, and it was somewhat ironic that Ercan Kara was able to convert the most difficult chance of the whole tie.

The missed chances will sting, because while I thought Tigres was better over the 180 minutes of play, Orlando absolutely did enough get past them into the second round. Gallese stood tall, the Lions rode their luck a little bit, and created some of the best chances the team has had through its first five games of the year. But, against teams like Tigres, the margins are razor thin, and Orlando simply wasn’t as clinical as it needed to be.

While it’s still early, I was a little troubled by the performances of Facu, Mauricio Pereyra and Martin Ojeda Wednesday night. Torres seemed to often be taking several touches too many before releasing the ball, and Ojeda found it difficult to get involved. Pereyra left me the most concerned though. His yellow came as a result of simply not being able to keep up with the Tigres midfield, and his dwindling mobility and pace were more pronounced on the night. It shouldn’t be as much of a problem against MLS opposition, but I do wonder how he’ll hold up against teams with energetic and dynamic players in the center of the park. Still, its too early to make lasting judgments.

I will say that things seemed to pick up once Dagur Dan Thorhallsson and Ercan Kara entered the fray. Having a big target man to lump the ball forward to as time was winding down undoubtedly helped things, and Kara’s moment of magic was a timely reminder of what he’s capable of. Yes he needs service to be effective, but when he’s getting it, he’s a capable finisher, and he has a knack for getting into the right spots and making something out of nothing. Thorhallsson simply seems to be able to run into next week and then some, and I think we’ll see more and more of him as the year goes on.

People were rather upset about the time-wasting tactics that Tigres employed, and Oscar Pareja even made a point of addressing how little the ball was actually in play during the five minutes of second-half stoppage time. Frankly, I have no problem with the time-wasting antics employed by Tigres. If Orlando had been in position to go through, the Lions would have been doing the exact same thing, and we’d be hailing their savviness if it had worked the way it did for the Mexican giants. With that being said, it’s 100% on the referee to have better control of proceedings, prevent as much time-wasting as he can, and to make sure that the appropriate amount of stoppage time is played…which he didn’t. The time-wasting was annoying, but ultimately, if you want to be mad at someone, be mad at the official for not handling it better.

That’s not to suggest that OCSC was robbed by the referee. Outside of the stoppage time debacle, I thought he mostly did a good job, aside from maybe being a little uneven with his distribution of yellow cards to start, although things did even out more towards the end of the second half. The game was maybe called a bit tighter than we usually see in Concacaf play, but once establishing the precedent of not allowing a ton of contact, it was one that Said Martinez largely stuck to.

I want make sure I highlight the absolutely magnificent atmosphere at Exploria Stadium on Wednesday night. Aside from the top section of the south end reserved for Tigres fans, the stadium looked to be mostly sold out, and it sounded like it. The presence of several thousand Tigres fans among the 21,112 in attendance was honestly a welcome addition. In The Wall, the mindset seemed to be one of determination to not allow the away supporters to be heard, and on the occasions that the visiting fans started to grow in voice, it didn’t take long for the supporters section to up its game. It was one of the best atmospheres I’ve been part of at Exploria, and the scenes of unchecked delirium that greeted Ercan Kara’s equalizer were on par with some of the goals during the run to the U.S. Open Cup trophy. If the Lions had managed to grab another one and advance, it’s entirely possible that the building wouldn’t have been standing on Thursday morning. The challenge now is continuing that sort of fervent support as the season really gets going.

Now that the CCL is in the rearview mirror, attention turns fully to the MLS season. The Lions have a fantastic opportunity to bounce back and jump-start the offense this weekend when a 0-3-0 Charlotte team comes to town. The Crown has scored only one goal and given up seven, and it’s a great chance for OCSC to find its shooting boots. Whether we see a fully first choice XI or not, I hope to see the Lions build some more cohesion on the offensive side of things, while maintaining the strong level of defensive play they’ve shown to start the season.

In short, be proud. The Lions acquitted themselves well, and on another night might well have gone through to the next round. There are a few areas that concern me, but I’m going to wait a few more weeks before truly sounding the alarm bells. If the fans can create 80-90% of that atmosphere every week, it’s going to be very difficult for teams to come 

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Orlando City

How Orlando City’s Offense Stacks Up Against What Atlanta Does Defensively

How Orlando City has performed against teams playing with three or four defenders, and how that may influence the playoff game against Atlanta United.

Published

11 hours ago

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November 21, 2024

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

The most famous quote about real estate is that “there are three things that matter in property: location, location, location.” Soccer coaches also like to think in threes, especially when it comes to points, but for a soccer coach, the three things that matter might be the rhyming triplet “formation, formation, formation,” as that is where they will have the biggest influence on every game that their team plays.

Throughout his tenure as head coach, Óscar Pareja has preferred to use a 4-2-3-1 as his formation (fbref.com’s lineup data shows that the Lions primarily played a 4-2-3-1 in 65% of their MLS matches this season, and 79% of their MLS matches during the last three seasons). The Lions have lined up in a 4-2-3-1 during each of their last 14 games, and my confidence level is strong to quite strong (can you believe Meet the Parents came out 24 years ago?) that they will do so once again on Sunday when they host Atlanta United.

Atlanta United also prefers to deploy a 4-2-3-1, but was less consistent than Orlando City this season during MLS play, as evidenced by the chart below that shows how Atlanta lined up this season:

The purpose of this image is a table to show how Atlanta United lined up in 2024 (mostly in a 4-2-3-1 but also in one of six other formations).

I am relying on the coders at Opta for their evaluation of the formation, as I do not watch a lot of Atlanta United matches (sounds terrible), but though Atlanta primarily played with four defenders in more than two-thirds of its matches, during the last two matches it played a 3-5-2, the only two matches all season in which interim coach Rob Valentino rolled out that formation. I suspect that the formation change was related partially to playing Inter Miami and trying to defend the Herons’ dynamic offense and partially due to an injury suffered by defender Brooks Lennon in the first game of that series. So, while Atlanta primarily played four in the back for most of the season, there is a good chance it will roll with what worked against Florida’s second-best MLS team when it plays Florida’s best MLS team this weekend.

Now, if you want to read more about Atlanta, then you can read our match preview, which will drop Sunday morning, but I want to look at how Orlando did against teams that play similar styles. Looking only at MLS games, the table below shows how Orlando City performed against different back line structures this season (the left side is how the Lions’ opponents lined up, the right side is how Orlando City performed against opponents in those formations):

Table embedded as an image showing Orlando City doing best in goal differential in 12 games against three-man back lines, second best against four-man back lines, and having played once against a five-man back line (a 1-1 draw).

Orlando City earned slightly more points per game — the stat that matters most — against teams that played four in the back, but the Lions had a better average goal differential when teams played three in the back. Atlanta will likely deploy one of those two formations. In both games against Orlando City this season, Sunday’s visitors went with a 4-2-3-1, but as mentioned earlier, they used three in the back in each of their last two matches, so it really could be either.

Soccer is not like baseball, where players primarily stay in the same spot throughout the game, so some of these stats have to be taken with a grain of salt, as players are not always rigidly in the same position throughout a match. A team may also primarily play with four in the back but switch to three when chasing a game, or five when trying to protect against a late goal.

That said, using the data around Orlando City’s opponents’ general formations, here are the attacking groups who played the most frequently against four defenders during the 24 MLS games where Opta coded the opponents as using a defensive group of four:

Table embedded as an image showing the most frequently used lineups against teams who deploy four defenders. The most frequently used attacking group has a plus eight goal differential for the season.

It is a little ominous that the main starting group, shown in row one, has played 666 MLS minutes against back lines of four this season, but do I like that green goal differential of +8 in those minutes, which is a strong +1.08 per 90 minutes. I like that goal differential more than I like all the things that Cardi B, Bad Bunny, and J Balvin like on their song that is creatively named “I Like It.” Coincidentally, when people ask me what I think about that song, I say, “I like it.” I am very creative.

If we look at the lineups that Orlando City has used against back lines of three defenders then there are some pretty major differences in personnel groupings, but it must be noted that more than half of the games against teams playing three in the back came early in the season, when Ramiro Enrique was unavailable to play. Enrique, my presumed starter at striker, has played fewer than three games’ worth of minutes (265 total) against back lines of three this season, and only 28 minutes with the main starting group, which ranks 13th among all the attacking lineups for minutes played against three defenders. That group scored one goal in their 28 minutes together though, for a robust 3.21 goals-scored-per-90-minutes average.

While the team as a whole has been successful against three-man back lines, I do not expect any of the lineups shown in the table below to play more than a few minutes together this weekend, though the first row and the last row are strong groups and had a lot of success.

Table embedded as an image showing the most frequently used lineups against teams who deploy three defenders. The most frequently used attacking group has a plus three goal differential for the season.

I am sure that all week long the Orlando City coaching staff has been going back and forth on whether it is more likely that Atlanta reverts to its most commonly used four in the back, or if the Five Stripes try for three wins in a row with three in the back. I would prefer that Atlanta plays with zero defenders and goalkeeper Brad Guzan wears a blindfold, but I think that is unlikely to be the case.

Even though Atlanta defeated Orlando City both times while in a 4-2-3-1, based on available personnel and recent results, I believe that the team will come out in a 3-5-2 in Inter&Co Stadium in the conference semifinal. Good things come in threes, and Orlando City’s best offensive production this season has been against three defenders, so I am going to be hoping that this continues, and in the third game against Atlanta the Lions grab the three points. Three’s company!

Well, it is a playoff game, so there are no actual points at stake, but you know what I meant.

Vamos Orlando!

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Orlando City vs. Atlanta United: Three Keys to Victory

What do the Lions need to do to get a victory to advance to the Eastern Conference final?

Published

13 hours ago

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November 21, 2024

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

Orlando City continues its playoff journey against Atlanta United Sunday at Inter&Co Stadium. The Lions are coming off an emotional penalty shootout win over Charlotte FC in their best-of-three, first-round series. Likewise, Atlanta United stunned everyone by taking out Inter Miami to advance in its own best-of-three matchup. Now, the rivals meet in the Eastern Conference semifinals.

What does Orlando City need to do to get past Atlanta United to advance to the Easter Conference final?

Beat Guzan

Brad Guzan made 16 saves over Atlanta’s three matches against Inter Miami, including seven in the 3-2 win on the road in Game 3. The 40-year-old former USMNT keeper is in excellent form and is a big reason why the Five Stripes are facing Orlando City. Converting chances against Guzan will be crucial to earning a result. There have been times this season when the Lions have struggled to convert their chances. Despite that, the team has done enough offensively to get to this point. Facundo Torres, Martin Ojeda, Duncan McGuire, Ramiro Enrique, and others have contributed and will need to do so this weekend.

Cartagena is Essential

Orlando City lost twice to Atlanta United during the regular season. What is interesting, and perhaps relevant, is that Wilder Cartagena was out for both of those matches. Cartagena was shown a straight red in the match against Minnesota United prior to the first match against Atlanta way back in March. He was shown a yellow card in the match against FC Cincinnati and then served a yellow card accumulation suspension for the final match of the season against Atlanta. Fortunately for Orlando City, Cartagena will be available for the match this weekend. I’ve mentioned before the importance of Cartagena to Orlando City’s success. When he and Cesar Araujo are on the field together, the defense is simply better. Cartagena is frankly one of the better defensive midfielders in MLS. Atlanta scored five goals in the series against Miami, and Orlando will need to keep the visitors from having that kind of offensive success.

Overcome the Past

That darn international break in the middle of the playoffs is something I don’t love. More precisely, I don’t like it because Orlando City often struggles after a break. It would have been nice if Orlando City could have ridden the momentum from the penalty kick victory into the Atlanta match, but that’s not to be. Now is the time for Orlando City to break some bad habits, including turning around its historical lack of success against Atlanta, and tendency to struggle in the first match after a break. Oscar Pareja needs to have the players in the right frame of mind, and the players need to execute the plan. A full house of supporters can also make a difference. Given it’s a Sunday afternoon match, there’s no reason not to pack the house.

That is what I will be looking for Sunday afternoon. Let me know your thoughts in the comments below. Vamos Orlando!

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Lion Links

Lion Links: 11/21/24

Marta’s chance to shine in NWSL Championship, NWSL and MLS award winners announced, 2025 SheBelieves Cup details, and more.

Published

17 hours ago

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November 21, 2024

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Image courtesy of Orlando Pride

How’s it going, Mane Landers? I’ve been spending most of this week plotting out some holiday shopping to make things a little less stressful for myself over the next few weeks. A big weekend filled with Orlando soccer awaits us, so make sure to get any errands or obligations out of the way sooner rather than later. Let’s dive into today’s links!

Spotlight Falls On Marta in NWSL Championship

There are plenty of storylines heading into Saturday’s NWSL Championship between the Orlando Pride and Washington Spirit, including Marta’s opportunity to put an exclamation point on what has been an excellent season for the Pride. Orlando has been enjoying the fruits of its labor this season after a rebuild over the past few years that’s included plenty of change in the City Beautiful. Marta has been a constant, however, enduring some difficult seasons since joining the Pride and adapting her game She’s scored in both of the Pride’s playoff games so far and has a chance to author a storybook ending on Saturday.

Ann-Katrin Berger Named NWSL Goalkeeper of the Year

NJ/NY Gotham FC goalkeeper Ann-Katrin Berger was named 2024 NWSL Goalkeeper of the Year, beating out the Pride’s Anna Moorhouse and Utah Royals FC’s Mandy Haught for the honor. It was Berger’s first year in the NWSL and she’s the first European player to win the award. She only conceded 16 goals across her 22 matches for Gotham this season and was a key reason behind her team’s success. I’m not too surprised that Moorhouse did not win, considering how solid the Pride’s defense was as a whole, but this won’t take anything away from a record-breaking season for her.

Wilfried Nancy Named MLS Coach of the Year

Columbus Crew Head Coach Wilfried Nancy was voted 2024 MLS Coach of the Year after a historic season in which the Crew set club records in both points and goals. The Crew also won the Leagues Cup this summer and their 2024 Concacaf Champions Cup campaign included advancing past Tigres and Monterrey en route to the final. This is Nancy’s first time being named Coach of the Year and he has been a finalist for the award every year since 2021. The Frenchman received 40.02% of the vote, winning the award over Inter Miami’s Gerardo Martino and Colorado Rapids Head Coach Chris Armas.

2025 SheBelieves Cup Details Unveiled

The 10th annual SheBelieves Cup will take place next year and the tournament will return to its usual format where each of the four teams plays each other once. The United States Women’s National Team will host Japan, Colombia, and Australia in February in what should be an exciting tournament. The U.S. will take on Colombia on Feb. 20 in Houston before facing Australia in Arizona on Feb. 23 and finishing the tournament on Feb. 26 against Japan at Snapdragon Stadium in San Diego. These games will also be the first domestic games of 2025 for the USWNT as it prepares to qualify for the 2027 World Cup in Brazil.

Eric Quill Named FC Dallas Head Coach

FC Dallas announced that Eric Quill will become the team’s next head coach. Quill joins Dallas after a great year with New Mexico United that included trips to the U.S. Open Cup quarterfinals and USL Championship Western Conference semifinals. It’s also a reunion of sorts for Quill, as he previously coached North Texas SC and was named USL League One Coach of the Year with the club in 2019. Dallas missed out on the playoffs this season, with Peter Luccin coaching the team on an interim basis after the firing of Nico Estevez in June.

Free Kicks

  • District of Columbia Mayor Muriel Bowser challenged Orlando Mayor Buddy Dyer to a bet involving this weekend’s NWSL Championship, with embarrassing lightshows on the line.

That’s all I have for you this time around. I hope you all have a wonderful Thursday and rest of your week!

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