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Orlando City at New York City FC: Five Takeaways

Published

6 years ago

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Well, how is everyone feeling after that 1-1 draw for the Lions in Yankee Stadium? I know I’m a little disappointed because the three points were there for the taking. The good guys couldn’t capitalize on it and will only be bringing a single point back home. A point is a point though, especially on the road in Major League Soccer. Let’s take a look at the five biggest takeaways from the match.

O’Connor’s Lineup Finally Showing Consistency

For the first time since the second game of the season, Orlando City Head Coach James O’Connor only made one change to the starting XI — Tesho Akindele as the striker with Dom Dwyer on the bench, reportedly due to a small knock he took in training this week. Honestly, I tend to think it also has to do with Dwyer failing to show up far too many times in recent matches. Sure, he entered technically averaging a goal or assist every 82 minutes this season. Statistics often don’t tell the whole story, however. I’d point to the number of sitters Dwyer hasn’t converted (including one of the easiest chances he may ever see as a professional soccer player in the second half of this match), the opportunities he’s squandered by flopping and looking for a foul, and how much better at hold-up play Akindele has been so far. Another nice thing to see with the starting lineup is the same back line, something that’s only occurred three times in O’Connor’s 26 matches as gaffer.

Lack of Communication Continues to Confuse the Defense

A recurring theme throughout pretty much all Orlando City’s time in MLS has been a noticeable lack of defensive cohesion. Obviously, O’Connor’s constant rotation of center backs certainly doesn’t help that. A very apparent lack of communication between the defensive line and goalkeeper, and even the midfielders as they come back to defend, is perhaps the most sizable problem currently. This reared its head multiple times in Saturday’s draw, and nearly led to goals for New York City FC from a couple of those errors. Starting in the sixth minute, no one played or called for a ball that was loose in front of keeper Brian Rowe. At minute 26, there was total chaos and a sense of panic when trying to clear a ball at the top of box — again with no one taking control of the situation.

Center back Lamine Sané had to make a desperate recovery tackle on NYCFC forward Héber in the 30th after losing him with no support. The scariest blunder came in minute 36, when CB Robin Jansson and left back Joao Moutinho got burned by Ismael Tajouri-Shradi and Rowe came way out of his goal, leaving the net open as Tajouri-Shradi pulled his shot wide.No one tracked Héber’s run into the box for his 51st minute goal, as all of the Orlando City defenders were caught ball watching, again not communicating, when the rebound came out off of Rowe’s incredible save. Several more times in the second half, minutes 62, 64, and 75 for sure, there was a total lack of communication leading to an inability to clear the ball out of dangerous areas. It simply has to improve or I fear the defensive errors will become insurmountable as the team continues to squander points.

Attackers Still Too Hesitant to Pull the Trigger

Unfortunately, I watched this match with the NYCFC broadcast and as I was taking yet another note about the attacking Lions failing to pull the trigger and shoot the ball, the commentator said the same thing. You know it’s too frequent of a problem when the opposing team’s analysts point it out. Chris Mueller’s first-half performance was definitely the standout culprit in this match. He took far too many touches on an opportunity in the 10th and chose to cross it to Akindele when he was 1-v-1 with Sean Johnson in the 33rd. Of course, Akindele did put it in the back of the net for Orlando City’s second goal that was ultimately overturned after video review. Mueller danced with the ball at the top of the box for far too long again in the 43rd, wasting at least one shot opportunity. The only other glaring failure to pull the trigger I saw was actually on Nani at minute 44, when he made the decision to cut the ball back instead of taking the shot himself. You can’t score if you don’t shoot, and the Lions’ front line has to be more willing to take shots at any possible chance.

Ruan Starting to Show Wear and Tear

Anyone who’s watched any match with Ruan in the right back role knows that he runs his legs off and plays his heart out for every second he’s on the pitch, sort of like the defensive version of Mueller. That’s what we all love to see as fans, and I’m sure what O’Connor and his staff love to see as coaches. The issue is the wear and tear it’s taking on Ruan himself. There were several times in last week’s victory over Vancouver Whitecaps that I noticed Ruan grab at his back, squat down in discomfort, or just generally look exhausted. He started doing the same things early on today too. By minute 17, Ruan was down on the sideline and stretching his back and legs for the second time already. He was then visibly limping in the 23rd. I know backup right back Kyle Smith is very clearly not in the same class as Ruan, but I don’t see how O’Connor is going to be able to continue to push Ruan without giving him a rest soon.

Orlando City’s Best Attack Comes From the Right Side

Having said that about Ruan, he has been the source of Orlando’s best attacking chances of late. His speed down the right side has been absolutely unmatched and no defender has been able to deal with it this season. That speed saw the setup for Saturday’s lone goal, when Ruan’s cross into the box at minute 18 was poorly dealt with by NYCFC and Nani was able to slam in the shot. Ten minutes later, Ruan started another attack down the right that led to a shot on goal and save by Sean Johnson. The second half is where the wear and tear issue came into play. Ruan was making fewer runs down the right anymore, forcing Orlando City to try to lob the ball downfield over and over and over again with zero success. The exception came on Dwyer’s miss, when the Brazilian blazed past the defense and put a perfect cross on Dom’s head. Since the right-sided attack has proven it works, O’Connor has to do something to ensure the health of the only man in purple, Ruan, that can start said attack.

There’s always so much more that can be said about the Lions, whether they win, lose, or draw. Those were the five things I saw as the most important takeaways from our second draw with NYCFC this year. Here’s hoping necessary improvements will be made before Toronto FC knocks on the door of Orlando City Stadium next Saturday.

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Orlando City

How Orlando City’s Offense Stacks Up Against What Atlanta Does Defensively

How Orlando City has performed against teams playing with three or four defenders, and how that may influence the playoff game against Atlanta United.

Published

17 hours ago

on

November 21, 2024

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

The most famous quote about real estate is that “there are three things that matter in property: location, location, location.” Soccer coaches also like to think in threes, especially when it comes to points, but for a soccer coach, the three things that matter might be the rhyming triplet “formation, formation, formation,” as that is where they will have the biggest influence on every game that their team plays.

Throughout his tenure as head coach, Óscar Pareja has preferred to use a 4-2-3-1 as his formation (fbref.com’s lineup data shows that the Lions primarily played a 4-2-3-1 in 65% of their MLS matches this season, and 79% of their MLS matches during the last three seasons). The Lions have lined up in a 4-2-3-1 during each of their last 14 games, and my confidence level is strong to quite strong (can you believe Meet the Parents came out 24 years ago?) that they will do so once again on Sunday when they host Atlanta United.

Atlanta United also prefers to deploy a 4-2-3-1, but was less consistent than Orlando City this season during MLS play, as evidenced by the chart below that shows how Atlanta lined up this season:

The purpose of this image is a table to show how Atlanta United lined up in 2024 (mostly in a 4-2-3-1 but also in one of six other formations).

I am relying on the coders at Opta for their evaluation of the formation, as I do not watch a lot of Atlanta United matches (sounds terrible), but though Atlanta primarily played with four defenders in more than two-thirds of its matches, during the last two matches it played a 3-5-2, the only two matches all season in which interim coach Rob Valentino rolled out that formation. I suspect that the formation change was related partially to playing Inter Miami and trying to defend the Herons’ dynamic offense and partially due to an injury suffered by defender Brooks Lennon in the first game of that series. So, while Atlanta primarily played four in the back for most of the season, there is a good chance it will roll with what worked against Florida’s second-best MLS team when it plays Florida’s best MLS team this weekend.

Now, if you want to read more about Atlanta, then you can read our match preview, which will drop Sunday morning, but I want to look at how Orlando did against teams that play similar styles. Looking only at MLS games, the table below shows how Orlando City performed against different back line structures this season (the left side is how the Lions’ opponents lined up, the right side is how Orlando City performed against opponents in those formations):

Table embedded as an image showing Orlando City doing best in goal differential in 12 games against three-man back lines, second best against four-man back lines, and having played once against a five-man back line (a 1-1 draw).

Orlando City earned slightly more points per game — the stat that matters most — against teams that played four in the back, but the Lions had a better average goal differential when teams played three in the back. Atlanta will likely deploy one of those two formations. In both games against Orlando City this season, Sunday’s visitors went with a 4-2-3-1, but as mentioned earlier, they used three in the back in each of their last two matches, so it really could be either.

Soccer is not like baseball, where players primarily stay in the same spot throughout the game, so some of these stats have to be taken with a grain of salt, as players are not always rigidly in the same position throughout a match. A team may also primarily play with four in the back but switch to three when chasing a game, or five when trying to protect against a late goal.

That said, using the data around Orlando City’s opponents’ general formations, here are the attacking groups who played the most frequently against four defenders during the 24 MLS games where Opta coded the opponents as using a defensive group of four:

Table embedded as an image showing the most frequently used lineups against teams who deploy four defenders. The most frequently used attacking group has a plus eight goal differential for the season.

It is a little ominous that the main starting group, shown in row one, has played 666 MLS minutes against back lines of four this season, but do I like that green goal differential of +8 in those minutes, which is a strong +1.08 per 90 minutes. I like that goal differential more than I like all the things that Cardi B, Bad Bunny, and J Balvin like on their song that is creatively named “I Like It.” Coincidentally, when people ask me what I think about that song, I say, “I like it.” I am very creative.

If we look at the lineups that Orlando City has used against back lines of three defenders then there are some pretty major differences in personnel groupings, but it must be noted that more than half of the games against teams playing three in the back came early in the season, when Ramiro Enrique was unavailable to play. Enrique, my presumed starter at striker, has played fewer than three games’ worth of minutes (265 total) against back lines of three this season, and only 28 minutes with the main starting group, which ranks 13th among all the attacking lineups for minutes played against three defenders. That group scored one goal in their 28 minutes together though, for a robust 3.21 goals-scored-per-90-minutes average.

While the team as a whole has been successful against three-man back lines, I do not expect any of the lineups shown in the table below to play more than a few minutes together this weekend, though the first row and the last row are strong groups and had a lot of success.

Table embedded as an image showing the most frequently used lineups against teams who deploy three defenders. The most frequently used attacking group has a plus three goal differential for the season.

I am sure that all week long the Orlando City coaching staff has been going back and forth on whether it is more likely that Atlanta reverts to its most commonly used four in the back, or if the Five Stripes try for three wins in a row with three in the back. I would prefer that Atlanta plays with zero defenders and goalkeeper Brad Guzan wears a blindfold, but I think that is unlikely to be the case.

Even though Atlanta defeated Orlando City both times while in a 4-2-3-1, based on available personnel and recent results, I believe that the team will come out in a 3-5-2 in Inter&Co Stadium in the conference semifinal. Good things come in threes, and Orlando City’s best offensive production this season has been against three defenders, so I am going to be hoping that this continues, and in the third game against Atlanta the Lions grab the three points. Three’s company!

Well, it is a playoff game, so there are no actual points at stake, but you know what I meant.

Vamos Orlando!

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Orlando City vs. Atlanta United: Three Keys to Victory

What do the Lions need to do to get a victory to advance to the Eastern Conference final?

Published

19 hours ago

on

November 21, 2024

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

Orlando City continues its playoff journey against Atlanta United Sunday at Inter&Co Stadium. The Lions are coming off an emotional penalty shootout win over Charlotte FC in their best-of-three, first-round series. Likewise, Atlanta United stunned everyone by taking out Inter Miami to advance in its own best-of-three matchup. Now, the rivals meet in the Eastern Conference semifinals.

What does Orlando City need to do to get past Atlanta United to advance to the Easter Conference final?

Beat Guzan

Brad Guzan made 16 saves over Atlanta’s three matches against Inter Miami, including seven in the 3-2 win on the road in Game 3. The 40-year-old former USMNT keeper is in excellent form and is a big reason why the Five Stripes are facing Orlando City. Converting chances against Guzan will be crucial to earning a result. There have been times this season when the Lions have struggled to convert their chances. Despite that, the team has done enough offensively to get to this point. Facundo Torres, Martin Ojeda, Duncan McGuire, Ramiro Enrique, and others have contributed and will need to do so this weekend.

Cartagena is Essential

Orlando City lost twice to Atlanta United during the regular season. What is interesting, and perhaps relevant, is that Wilder Cartagena was out for both of those matches. Cartagena was shown a straight red in the match against Minnesota United prior to the first match against Atlanta way back in March. He was shown a yellow card in the match against FC Cincinnati and then served a yellow card accumulation suspension for the final match of the season against Atlanta. Fortunately for Orlando City, Cartagena will be available for the match this weekend. I’ve mentioned before the importance of Cartagena to Orlando City’s success. When he and Cesar Araujo are on the field together, the defense is simply better. Cartagena is frankly one of the better defensive midfielders in MLS. Atlanta scored five goals in the series against Miami, and Orlando will need to keep the visitors from having that kind of offensive success.

Overcome the Past

That darn international break in the middle of the playoffs is something I don’t love. More precisely, I don’t like it because Orlando City often struggles after a break. It would have been nice if Orlando City could have ridden the momentum from the penalty kick victory into the Atlanta match, but that’s not to be. Now is the time for Orlando City to break some bad habits, including turning around its historical lack of success against Atlanta, and tendency to struggle in the first match after a break. Oscar Pareja needs to have the players in the right frame of mind, and the players need to execute the plan. A full house of supporters can also make a difference. Given it’s a Sunday afternoon match, there’s no reason not to pack the house.

That is what I will be looking for Sunday afternoon. Let me know your thoughts in the comments below. Vamos Orlando!

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Lion Links

Lion Links: 11/21/24

Marta’s chance to shine in NWSL Championship, NWSL and MLS award winners announced, 2025 SheBelieves Cup details, and more.

Published

23 hours ago

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November 21, 2024

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Image courtesy of Orlando Pride

How’s it going, Mane Landers? I’ve been spending most of this week plotting out some holiday shopping to make things a little less stressful for myself over the next few weeks. A big weekend filled with Orlando soccer awaits us, so make sure to get any errands or obligations out of the way sooner rather than later. Let’s dive into today’s links!

Spotlight Falls On Marta in NWSL Championship

There are plenty of storylines heading into Saturday’s NWSL Championship between the Orlando Pride and Washington Spirit, including Marta’s opportunity to put an exclamation point on what has been an excellent season for the Pride. Orlando has been enjoying the fruits of its labor this season after a rebuild over the past few years that’s included plenty of change in the City Beautiful. Marta has been a constant, however, enduring some difficult seasons since joining the Pride and adapting her game She’s scored in both of the Pride’s playoff games so far and has a chance to author a storybook ending on Saturday.

Ann-Katrin Berger Named NWSL Goalkeeper of the Year

NJ/NY Gotham FC goalkeeper Ann-Katrin Berger was named 2024 NWSL Goalkeeper of the Year, beating out the Pride’s Anna Moorhouse and Utah Royals FC’s Mandy Haught for the honor. It was Berger’s first year in the NWSL and she’s the first European player to win the award. She only conceded 16 goals across her 22 matches for Gotham this season and was a key reason behind her team’s success. I’m not too surprised that Moorhouse did not win, considering how solid the Pride’s defense was as a whole, but this won’t take anything away from a record-breaking season for her.

Wilfried Nancy Named MLS Coach of the Year

Columbus Crew Head Coach Wilfried Nancy was voted 2024 MLS Coach of the Year after a historic season in which the Crew set club records in both points and goals. The Crew also won the Leagues Cup this summer and their 2024 Concacaf Champions Cup campaign included advancing past Tigres and Monterrey en route to the final. This is Nancy’s first time being named Coach of the Year and he has been a finalist for the award every year since 2021. The Frenchman received 40.02% of the vote, winning the award over Inter Miami’s Gerardo Martino and Colorado Rapids Head Coach Chris Armas.

2025 SheBelieves Cup Details Unveiled

The 10th annual SheBelieves Cup will take place next year and the tournament will return to its usual format where each of the four teams plays each other once. The United States Women’s National Team will host Japan, Colombia, and Australia in February in what should be an exciting tournament. The U.S. will take on Colombia on Feb. 20 in Houston before facing Australia in Arizona on Feb. 23 and finishing the tournament on Feb. 26 against Japan at Snapdragon Stadium in San Diego. These games will also be the first domestic games of 2025 for the USWNT as it prepares to qualify for the 2027 World Cup in Brazil.

Eric Quill Named FC Dallas Head Coach

FC Dallas announced that Eric Quill will become the team’s next head coach. Quill joins Dallas after a great year with New Mexico United that included trips to the U.S. Open Cup quarterfinals and USL Championship Western Conference semifinals. It’s also a reunion of sorts for Quill, as he previously coached North Texas SC and was named USL League One Coach of the Year with the club in 2019. Dallas missed out on the playoffs this season, with Peter Luccin coaching the team on an interim basis after the firing of Nico Estevez in June.

Free Kicks

  • District of Columbia Mayor Muriel Bowser challenged Orlando Mayor Buddy Dyer to a bet involving this weekend’s NWSL Championship, with embarrassing lightshows on the line.

That’s all I have for you this time around. I hope you all have a wonderful Thursday and rest of your week!

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