Orlando City
2016 Orlando City Season in Review: Where Were the Vital Points Dropped?
Let’s not sugarcoat it – missing the playoffs sucks. Watching other people’s favorite teams battle it out for a trophy while yours is playing golf, vacationing, or whatever. So, I get why there was so much gnashing of teeth on social media and in the comments section of this site after the loss to Montreal on Oct. 2 stuck a dagger in the Lions’ playoff chances.
Since all we’re left with is picking up the pieces and dissecting the 2016 season, we’ll be doing a number of postmortem pieces over the next few weeks. Today I thought I’d break down where Orlando City went particularly wrong in amassing enough points to make the 2016 MLS playoffs. Had the club but duplicated the 44 points from 2015, the Lions would have finished two points ahead of Philadelphia and we’d have had an additional game this week. But instead, the Lions ended the season on just 41 points. Let’s break down where dropped points really hurt the most by splitting the opponents into groups.
Orlando City by Conference
- Orlando City vs. the Eastern Conference: 8-7-9, 33 points
- Orlando City vs. the Western Conference: 1-4-5, 8 points
The Lions did OK against the East. At 1.375 points per game, this kind of production across the board would have had Orlando City in the middle of the table at about 47 points. That would have earned the Lions a home playoff game. The 1-4-5 record against the West is a big drop from last year’s mark of 5-3-2. Orlando City beat Portland, Sporting Kansas City, LA Galaxy, Houston Dynamo, and Colorado Rapids in 2015. In 2016, the team mustered only a win over Portland, albeit a fun and convincing one.
But East teams playing poorly against the Western Conference is not unique to Orlando City (Philadelphia was 1-6-3 vs. the West, for example). Four of the six Eastern Conference playoff teams had .500 or worse records against the Western Conference, so the answer probably lies elsewhere. By eliminating a poor cross-conference record, we can focus solely on the Eastern Conference.
Orlando City vs. Eastern Conference
- Orlando City vs. East Playoff Teams: 7-6-4, 25 points
- Orlando City vs. East Non-Playoff Teams: 1-1-5, 8 points
Now we’re getting somewhere. The Lions actually had a good record against Eastern Conference teams that made the playoffs. The club went 2-0-1 against New York City FC; 2-1-0 versus Montreal Impact; 1-1-1 against both Philadelphia Union and Toronto FC; 1-1-0 against D.C. United; and 0-2-1 against conference regular-season conference champion New York Red Bulls.
Meanwhile, the Lions managed only one win in seven matches against the East’s bottom feeders and drew five times against those teams. While Orlando City pulled in 1.47 points per game against the conference’s six best teams, the Lions mustered barely over a point per game against the other three clubs that missed the postseason. The lone win came at home against New England in Jason Kreis’ first game as head coach. That goes along with the infamous handball draw at home and another tie on the road against the Revs. Orlando failed to beat Columbus or Chicago, going 0-1-1 against the Crew and 0-0-2 against the Fire. Woof.
If Orlando City would simply have maintained the same points-per-game average against the worst teams in the East as it did against the best, that’s a jump of about four points and the Lions leapfrog New England and Philadelphia and finish level on points with the Impact.
This can be taken a bit further. The Lions went 1-0-3 against the four non-playoff teams in the Western Conference. That’s a total of 2-1-8 against the dregs of Major League Soccer. Eight times Orlando failed to score one goal more than the opponent to break a tie against the most meh competition the league had to offer.
In fairness, some of those draws were better than others. Rallying from two goals down on opening day was a satisfactory tie. Going to Vancouver on short rest and getting a result under an interim head coach was a good draw. Failing to find the net once against Houston at home was not. Allowing a goal at (beyond?) the death against San Jose at home was abysmal.
Just one more win among the group of Chicago, Columbus, New England, Houston, San Jose, and Vancouver would have pushed the Lions above the Union and into the postseason. The win over defending MLS champion Portland seemed a lot bigger in March when everyone expected the Timbers to make another run toward the MLS Cup. Now it seems like the kind of result Orlando City should have expected against teams below the line.
To make matters worse, of those dropped points against bad teams, five of the games were at Camping World Stadium: the draws against New England, San Jose, Houston, and Chicago, and the loss to Columbus. The Lions drew all four away games from that group: at Vancouver, New England, Columbus, and Chicago. Maybe drawing those road games is OK, but those dropped points at home were a killer.
Trending
Is Orlando City’s bad play against the bottom feeders a disturbing trend or was this year just particularly bad?
Looking back at 2015, the Lions were 3-2-3 for 12 points (1.5 ppg) in eight matches against Eastern Conference non-playoff teams (1-1-1 vs. NYCFC, 0-1-1 vs. Philadelphia, and 2-0-1 vs. Chicago). Further, Orlando was 2-0-2 for eight points (2 ppg) in four matches against Western Conference non-playoff teams a year ago (beating Houston and Colorado, and drawing vs. RSL, San Jose). That’s a total of 5-2-5 for 20 points (1.67 ppg) in matches against the league’s worst in the club’s inaugural year. That kind of production would certainly have helped the Lions get above the red line in 2016.
The club did perform better against Eastern Conference playoff teams this season, despite collecting fewer overall points through the 2016 MLS campaign. The Lions were just 4-9-3 for 15 points (0.94 ppg) against Eastern Conference teams that made the postseason in 2015. Toronto FC alone clobbered Orlando three times in those nine City losses.
To summarize, Orlando City got better against the Eastern Conference overall and especially against Eastern playoff teams from 2015 to 2016. However, the Lions also got substantially worse against non-playoff teams, dropping from to 1.5 points per game vs. Eastern Conference non-playoff teams in 2015 to 1.14 ppg in 2016, and from 1.67 ppg vs. all non-playoff teams in 2015 to 1.27 ppg in 2016.
The key to the lads in purple reaching the playoffs for the first time might possibly be as simple as beating the bad teams in 2017.
Lion Links
Lion Links: 7/14/26
Marco Pasalic transfer rumor, Marta up for weekly award, MLS transfer roundup, and more.
Good morning, everyone. I write to you from Texas, specifically Dallas, as I was in Austin to see friends over the weekend and decided to pop up the road to take in the energy of the World Cup semifinal that will be played in the city later today. I won’t be attending the game, since I don’t wish to sell one of my kidneys but am looking forward to mingling with some of the fans who have traveled here for it. We’ve got a lot to talk about this morning, so let’s get into the links.
Marco Pasalic Transfer Rumor
There have been some quiet rumblings for awhile now that Marco Pasalic may leave Orlando City during the summer transfer window. We now have a more concrete report regarding a potential departure, as the streets are saying that the winger is set to sign for newly promoted Hull City, with a price tag of at least €7 million.
If the move does come to pass, it would reunite him with manager Sergej Jakirovic, who he briefly played for during his time at HNK Rijeka. Jakirovic also stated in a recent interview that he wants to sign Pasalic, so this is a rumor that could have some legs.
Marta Up for Weekly Honors
The Orlando Pride picked up an excellent win on Friday by knocking off the Kansas City Current 3-0, and Marta has been rewarded for her efforts in the victory with a nomination for the NWSL Player of the Week. The Brazilian legend bagged the team’s first goal shortly after halftime, when she found herself in space well outside the box and unleashed a low left-footed drive into the bottom corner for her 50th goal as a Pride player. For some reason, she was snubbed in the Goal of the Week voting despite her impressive strike, so make sure you go vote for her for Player of the Week!
MLS Transfer Roundup
With the MLS summer transfer window opening on Monday, we’ve got a slew of moves to get caught up on. We begin with confirmation of an item that we covered in Monday’s Links, as Nathan Ordaz has officially moved to D.C. United in exchange for up to $2.875 million. The New England Revolution have extended Matt Turner’s loan from Lyon, with the new deal lasting through December. It also has an option to extend the loan again until December 2027, after which the Revs have a purchase option. Atlanta United has signed Paraguayan center back Junior Alonso on a free transfer, with his deal running through the 2028-2029 season. Finally, Charlotte FC has announced the signing of forward Allan Saint-Maximin as a Designated Player. He will occupy the DP slot vacated by Wilfried Zaha.
USWNT Announces Fall Friendlies
The United States Women’s National Team has announced that it will play a pair of October friendlies against Spain in a matchup of the reigning World Cup champions against the reigning Olympic champions. The USWNT will face the top-ranked team in the world on Oct. 10 at Audi Field in Washington D.C., and again on Oct. 13 at Subaru Park in Chester, PA. The Oct. 10 match will also have a pregame retirement celebration for USWNT defender Crystal Dunn. This will be just the fourth time that the two teams have faced each other, with the U.S. winning two of the three previous meetings. The two friendlies will be the last games that the USWNT plays before beginning World Cup qualifying.
Previewing France vs. Spain
The World Cup semifinals begin today, with France and Spain set to throw down in Dallas. For France, the stars are too many to count, with Kylian Mbappe, Ousmane Dembele, and Michael Olise all taking turns lighting up both the field and the scoreboard for the team that has made back-to-back appearances in the final. As far as Spain goes, all the focus is on Lamine Yamal, as the young winger has been key to Spain’s success despite scoring just one goal. If Nico Williams is able to start on the opposite wing, the French won’t be able to key so heavily on Yamal, and it could open up more space for him in which to operate. The matchup between the youngster and Lucas Digne will be key, as will the ability of either Mikel Oyarzabal or Ferran Torres to be effective up top for Spain.
Free Kicks
- Former Lion Daryl Dike is leaving West Bromwich Albion. We know a team that just traded a striker.
- Debinha has signed a contract extension with the Kansas City Current.
- Hydration breaks will reportedly be a key element in future negotiations for soccer media rights.
- Manchester United is reportedly in advanced negotiations to sign midfielder Youri Tielemans from Aston Villa.
- Pau Cubarsi has pushed back on comments made by Spain’s former prime minister Mariano Rajoy, in which he claimed that France “don’t have any French players.”
That’s all I’ve got for you this morning. Vamos Orlando!
Lion Links
Lion Links: 7/13/26
Pride and OCB win, Maxime Crepeau to compete in MLS All-Star Skills Challenge, Latest MLS transfer roundup, and more.
Hello, Mane Landers! I hope all is well with you down in Florida. I’ve been very busy at work, but I look forward to watching the 2026 FIFA World Cup semifinals and final this week. We’ve got plenty to cover today, so let’s get to the links.
Pride Shut Out Kansas City Current at Home
The Orlando Pride defeated the Kansas City Current 3-0 at Inter&Co Stadium Friday night, bouncing back from a tough outing at Angel City the previous week. After a scoreless first half, Marta scored the opener from long distance to give Orlando the lead. Hannah Anderson and Barbra Banda added a goal apiece as the Pride have won three out of their last four league matches. Goalkeeper Anna Moorhouse earned a clean sheet in her 100th appearance for the club. Orlando remains eighth in the NWSL table with 20 points. The Pride will be back in action at home Wednesday, taking on Boston Legacy at Inter&Co Stadium.
OCB Wins at FC Cincinnati 2
Orlando City B beat FC Cincinnati 2 by a 2-1 scoreline at NKU Soccer Stadium in Highland Heights, KY on Sunday. Issah Haruna’s goal gave the Young Lions the lead in the first half. In the second half, Cincinnati leveled the match, but Matthew Belgodere scored the winner on the road. That result pulls the Young Lions into third in the MLS NEXT Pro Eastern Conference standings with 33 points, just one point off leaders Chattanooga FC. OCB will be away for another road test Saturday against Chattanooga FC at Finley Stadium.
Orlando City Reportedly Submits Transfer Offer for Alex Moreno
Orlando City has reportedly submitted a transfer offer to sign Girona defender Alex Moreno. No agreement has been reached between the two sides, and conversations remain ongoing, according to reports. Moreno made 31 appearances for Girona last season in La Liga and recorded three assists. The 33-year-old left back remains under contract with Girona through 2027, but the club was relegated from La Liga to La Liga 2 last season. Several European clubs have also expressed interest in signing Moreno, including La Liga sides Real Betis and Rayo Vallecano.
Crepeau to Compete in MLS All-Star Skills Challenge
Orlando City goalkeeper Maxime Crepeau will compete in the 2026 MLS All-Star Skills Challenge at Truist Field in Charlotte on July 28, the club announced Friday. The competition will feature top players from Major League Soccer and Liga MX competing to test their soccer skills on the pitch. Five skills challenge competitions are featured, including the All-Star Goalie Wars, All-Star Crossbar Challenge, and the MLS vs. Liga MX Relay Challenge. Each competition will crown its own champion this year, switching from the traditional MLS-versus-opponent format used in previous years.
Latest MLS Transfer Roundup
According to Tom Bogert of The Athletic, Sporting Kansas City has emerged as a potential option to sign former Liverpool forward Mohamed Salah.
D.C. United has reportedly acquired forward Nathan Ordaz from LAFC.
Meanwhile, the Seattle Sounders have reportedly traded defender Cody Baker to the New England Revolution.
Free Kicks
- Former Lion Silvester van der Water has signed with Cambodian Premier League side Preah Khan Reach Svay Rieng FC.
- Ted Lasso actor Cristo Fernandez, who plays Dani Rojas in the show, made his professional debut for USL Championship side El Paso Locomotive over the weekend.
- FIFA President Gianni Infantino confirmed that the organization will examine expanding the men’s World Cup from 48 to 64 teams after the 2026 tournament concludes.
- Senegal has fired manager Pape Thiaw following its Round of 32 defeat to Belgium in the World Cup.
That will do it for me today, Mane Landers. Enjoy your Monday, and I’ll see you next time.
Orlando City
Orlando City Trades Duncan McGuire to Houston Dynamo
The Lions send the 2023 first-round pick to Houston for a pile of Garberbucks.
Orlando no longer runs on Duncan as Orlando City has traded 2023 first-round draft pick Duncan McGuire to the Houston Dynamo. The big striker with the even bigger smile and the back flips joins the Dynamo, with the Lions receiving $600,000 in 2026 General Allocation Money (GAM), $400,000 in 2027 GAM, and $250,000 in 2027-2028 GAM. The return could also include up to $1.15 million in GAM add-ons if certain performance metrics are met. OCSC will retain a percentage of any sell-on by Houston.
It became clear that something was up with McGuire, as he did not dress for Orlando City’s friendly against Tampa Bay on Wednesday.
“Duncan has meant a great deal to this club since the day he arrived in Orlando,” Orlando City General Manager and Sporting Director Ricardo Moreira said in a club press release. “His resilience, determination, and willingness to fight through challenges both on and off the field have earned the respect of everyone throughout our organization. He has played a major role in our success over the last several years, and when the opportunity arose, we wanted to ensure it was a move that made sense for both Duncan and the club. We’re grateful for everything he has given to Orlando City and wish him and his family nothing but success in this next chapter.”
The Lions selected McGuire out of Creighton with the No. 6 overall selection in the first round of the 2023 MLS SuperDraft. Although he was not a Generation Adidas player, the striker had signed a pre-draft contract with the league, meaning Orlando City didn’t need to spend time agreeing to a contract. The 6-foot-1 forward quickly became a starter for the Lions during his rookie year, and put together back-to-back, double-digit goal-scoring seasons in his first two professional seasons. Now in his fourth pro year, McGuire has appeared in 85 MLS matches (45 starts) for the Lions, scoring 29 goals and adding eight assists. In all competitions, McGuire has contributed 32 goals and nine assists in 109 appearances (55 starts).
Once one of the most promising up-and-coming American strikers in any league after his 24 goals across his first two MLS campaign, Mcguire underwent surgery on both shoulders in separate procedures after the 2024 MLS Cup playoffs, which have restricted his availability, affected his form, and have limited him to just five goals and three assists in his last 29 matches. He has sat behind various other strikers starting in his place the last couple of seasons, including Ramiro Enrique, Luis Muriel, and Justin Ellis.
After his breakout rookie campaign, in which the Omaha, NE native scored 14 goals, he was courted by several teams in Europe. He signed with Blackburn Rovers in 2024, only to see the transfer rejected by the English Football League due to an administrative error by the EFL Championship club. Upon his return, the Creighton product signed his most recent contract on Aug. 22, 2024, locking him down through 2027 with a club option for 2028. That deal now belongs to the Dynamo.
McGuire’s hot start to his professional career had him climbing the U.S. Men’s National Team player pool. Gregg Berhalter called him up to the USMNT for the first time in January 2024 ahead of the team’s friendly against Slovenia. The striker made his first USMNT appearance in that match, coming off the bench to replace Brian White on Jan. 20, 2024, in a 1-0 loss. That is his only cap to date, although he had previously appeared nine times and scored one goal for the U.S. U-23 side.
The 2022 Hermann Trophy winner spent three seasons at Creighton, where he appeared in 24 games (23 starts) in his final (junior) season, logging 1,591 college minutes. McGuire scored 23 goals and added three assists in 2022.
What It Means for Orlando City
It makes sense to deal a striker making a base salary of $600,000 ($921,000 in total guaranteed compensation) if he can’t crack the starting lineup. While some of that comes down to coaching decisions and other players emerging, it didn’t help McGuire that he struggled to regain the consistent form he showed in his first two years in Orlando. In the end, this is a bit of a blow financially to the club, as the initial agreement with Blackburn was for a reported $4 million. He now departs for considerably less money, but his value understandably dropped with his production and the two shoulder surgeries.
McGuire is still just 25 years old, and sitting out after two surgeries means he has fewer miles on his legs than many players his age. He could still regain the form that saw him score 14 times in 2023 and 10 more times in 2024 and had the USMNT and European clubs paying attention. Orlando City will hope that he returns to form, because that will influence how much GAM the club eventually receives for this transaction.
A fan favorite since his arrival, McGuire will be missed, and while the Lions could perhaps have benefitted from getting a player back in return to bolster an area of need, the influx of GAM can help accomplish the same goal.
McGuire’s departure appears to solidify Justin Ellis’ position on the first team, although his play in the first half of the season likely already did that. It may also open up more minutes for Tiago. But the trade also tells us that unless a new striker is brought in, the Lions will play without a traditional target striker for the time being, allowing players who have typically either played as wingers, attacking midfielders, or false nines to have the freedom to fluidly change positions and force defenders out of their comfort zones when it comes to coverage. Martin Ojeda, Antoine Griezmann, Ellis, Ivan Angulo, Marco Pasalic, and the team’s fullbacks will be harder to keep tabs on under such a system.
Whether it will work or if it will further stress the team’s shoddy transition defense (or both) remains to be seen.
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