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Three Reasons Orlando City Won the Kevin Molino Trade

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Orlando City was the talk of the league this week following a blockbuster trade with Minnesota United that sent longtime midfield linchpin Kevin Molino north, along with recently drafted goalkeeper Patrick McLain, in exchange for $650,000 in allocation money ($450k in General, $200k in Targeted). Now that the initial impact of losing a fan favorite and the only remaining original Lion from the 2011 roster has had time to settle in, it’s time to break down why Orlando City actually came out on top of the deal with Minnesota.

All That Money

While Molino was an integral part of Orlando’s attack since the club’s inception and turned in a very solid season in 2016 (11 goals, 8 assists), $650,000 in allocation money is an incredible amount for a player who has turned in just one season of significance in the American top flight.

The money exchanged matched the MLS-record total that D.C. United shelled out to acquire Eddie Johnson in 2013, and Johnson was a well-established veteran by the time that transaction occurred. Johnson had over 60 MLS goals to his name at that point, along with several seasons playing abroad in England as part of Fulham’s organization, both with the Cottagers and on several loan spells elsewhere in Europe. That the Lions turned such a deal following one season of great production from Molino is pretty remarkable.

We should note that there was another player included in the deal (whom Orlando has already replaced with a veteran MLS keeper), unlike Johnson’s deal. And the affinity Minnesota United Head Coach Adrian Heath has for his longtime pupil almost certainly played a role in how much the Loons were willing to shell out for Molino, but that’s a hell of a deal nonetheless. The Trinidadian has several years of his prime left, but that kind of money is a great haul, especially for a player who had made it clear that he didn’t want to remain in Orlando — as our Gavin Ewbank wrote this week, that kind of money has incredible value in a cap-structured league. Bearing in mind the Lions will also get a percentage of any sale of Molino outside of MLS and the deal is potentially even sweeter.

Was His Performance Sustainable?

I recently wrote about Molino’s 2016 season and argued that he certainly was deserving of a pay raise. We don’t know how much he was asking from the club, which repeatedly offered him new deals that he turned down, but his 19 total goals and assists was deserving of more than the $110,000 base salary he received last year.

However, an analytical line of thinking from American Soccer Analysis shows that Molino’s production was a good bit above his expected goal (xG) and expected assist (xA) output. xG determines how many goals a player should score based on the theoretical goal value of the shots he takes, while xA is the sum of expected goals off shots from a player’s key passes.

While xG and xA, like all advanced stats, are valuable, it’s worth noting that they aren’t infallible. However, as ASA notes, the best strikers MLS has to offer tend to meet their xG over the course of their careers, not exceed it — much less exceed it by 2.42 as Molino managed to do in ’16. Molino wouldn’t need to exceed his expected numbers by that much again to have more productive seasons, but these figures demonstrate how tough it would be for The Original to have turned in that kind of elite-level season again in ’17, making the $650,000 in allocation money look all the better long-term.

Questionable Fit Under Kreis

As dynamic as Molino is in attack, most of his production last season came prior to the arrival of new Head Coach Jason Kreis in the summer. While Kreis showed that he isn’t necessarily married to any one formation with the different alignments he rolled out with his new team in the second half of the year, there’s no question that his preferred formation is the 4-4-2 diamond, a formation that Molino isn’t a the best fit for.

That’s not to say that Molino couldn’t play effectively in one of the side positions in a narrow diamond under Kreis, but there would be some acclimation as Molino could’ve had to shift a bit deeper and accommodate the likes of Kaká and Matías Pérez García in midfield. Defensive work rate is also not something Molino is known for, and, with the fullbacks getting up the field to provide width, he wouldn’t be an ideal option to race back and thwart counter attacks in the event of a giveaway. Unlike the 4-2-3-1 that Heath loves to operate out of, there can’t be two strong defensive mids like Darwin Céren and Cristian Higuita behind to provide cover and handle such tasks, as there were in the early days of Heath’s MLS Lions.

A player of Molino’s caliber certainly wouldn’t be useless in this system, that’s for sure. But when he isn’t fully committed to the cause and is unhappy, that makes the imperfect fit seem even less ideal. Now Kreis will be able to decide if he wants to pursue a replacement for Molino, one who would presumably be tailor made for the coach’s preferred system.

Podcasts

SkoPurp Soccer Episode 140: Bay FC Rewind, San Diego Preview, and More

The Pride keep their playoff hopes alive by eliminating Bay FC but things get tougher with San Diego visiting Friday.

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Image of Jacquie Ovalle dribbling toward the Bay FC defense.
Image courtesy of Orlando Pride / Justin Glatt

The Orlando Pride remained perfect on the road against Bay FC with a 3-1 win on Sunday. Deuces were wild, as Haley McCutcheon, who wears jersey No. 2, scored in the second minute of both halves, and her two goals in California gave the midfielder her second brace of both the 2026 NWSL season and her career. Barbra Banda figured heavily in pulling defenders out of position on two of the three Orlando goals and assisted on Jacquie Ovalle’s right-footed thunderbolt in stoppage time to put the game away. But make no mistake, it’s not as if the Pride played well, turning the ball over often and conceding 28 shot attempts to the hosts.

We break down a road win that may have been more exhausting to watch than to play in (although I wouldn’t bet on it), check back on our score predictions, and make our selections for Player of the Match.

This week’s mailbagbox asked us about Haley McCutcheon, where to most strongly place the blame for the Pride’s disappointing season, and more. Remember, you can ask us anything by hitting us up on Twitter at either @TheManeLand or @SkoPurpSoccer and using the hashtag #AskSkoPurp. You can use that same hashtag and hit @TheManeLand.bsky.social up on Bluesky. Or you can visit our show page, scroll down, and fill out the handy form. We’d also appreciate any ratings or reviews you can leave wherever you get your podcasts, and if you do that on Apple Podcasts, we’ll find them easily and read them on the show.

Finally, we looked ahead to Friday, when Orlando will host San Diego Wave FC, looking to both complete a season sweep and to keep its faint playoff hopes alive. We look at the series history, provide our key matchups for the contest, and make our predictions for the final score.


Here’s how Episode 140 went down:

0:15 – The Pride improved to 2-1-1 under Yolanda Thomas, but a lot of good Cosette Morche saves were required to get that second win.

20:00- The mailbagbox asks us to play the blame game.

33:36 – The Pride continue to face California-based competition, but Friday’s opponent is much higher in the table than Sunday’s was.

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Orlando City

Orlando City vs. San Jose Earthquakes: Preview, How to Watch, TV Info, Live Stream, Lineups, Match Thread, and More

Orlando City restarts its 2026 MLS campaign late tonight out west at San Jose.

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Image of Braian Ojeda taking a shot in a friendly against FC Dallas.
Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Justin Glatt

Welcome to your match thread for a late night midweek matchup tonight between Orlando City (4-9-2, 14 points) and the San Jose Earthquakes (10-3-2, 32 points) at PayPal Park (10:30 p.m., Apple TV). This is the only scheduled meeting between the teams in 2026 and the first time the teams have met since 2024.

Here’s what you need to know ahead of tonight’s match.

History

Orlando City is 3-1-3 in the previous seven MLS meetings with the Quakes since the club joined Major League Soccer in 2015. The Lions got their only away win in the series in the last meeting and enter tonight 1-1-2 on the road against San Jose.

The teams last met on May 18, 2024, with Jack Lynn coming off the bench to score the game’s only goal. Lynn’s strike in the 89th minute broke the scoreless deadlock and lifted the Lions to a 1-0 victory.

The teams met in Orlando most recently way back on June 22, 2021, with the Lions beating the Quakes down, 5-0. Orlando got things started with an early penalty kick goal by Nani, followed by braces from Benji Michel and Daryl Dike to easily put the game away. The lasting memory from the game is Michel’s celebratory dance wearing a cowboy hat that came out of the stands.

Prior to that Orlando City romp, the last time the teams met was on Aug. 31, 2019 when the Lions got freight trained 3-0 at Avaya Stadium, giving the Quakes their first win in the series. San Jose’s offense came via a Chris Wondolowski brace and an early opening goal by Magnus Eriksson. Orlando looked flat and weary out of the gate.

The Lions were victorious in Exploria Stadium in the 2018 meeting on April 21, a 3-2 Orlando win. It was the first win in the series for either side after three straight draws. Chris Mueller, Sacha Kljestan, and Dom Dwyer gave the Lions a 3-0 lead before Florian Jungwirth pulled two back in the game’s late stages.

The Lions led all of the first three matches in the second half only to see San Jose pull level, with two of those tying goals coming late. In the 2017 meeting, Carlos Rivas finally broke the scoreless tie and gave Orlando City the lead in the 81st minute, but Wondolowski spoiled the Lions’ night with an equalizer two minutes later as the teams drew at Avaya Stadium, 1-1.

In 2016, the Lions were gut-punched in the 94th minute in an emotional match that ended in a 2-2 draw. It was the first home match following the Pulse nightclub tragedy and what appeared to be a storybook ending to a cathartic win turned sour on a last-gasp equalizer by Shea Salinas. Seb Hines — now the Orlando Pride’s head coach — opened the scoring for Orlando, only to see Chad Barrett tie it up. Julio Baptista restored the lead in stoppage time, but Salinas ruined everything.

The two teams also drew in the first meeting, a 1-1 affair at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, with the Lions down to 10 men after Brek Shea was sent off in the first half. Kaká and Wondolowski each scored from the penalty spot four minutes apart in that initial meeting.

Overview

The teams meet tonight to get their post-World Cup portion of the season started. Orlando City has been terrible on the road all season long, keeping only one MLS opponent under two goals all year away from home and allowing five goals twice (at New York City FC and Nashville) and six goals twice (at LAFC and in the team’s most recent match away at FC Cincinnati just before the break).

Orlando City is a putrid 1-6-1 on the road this season, and now the Lions must face the Western Conference co-leaders tonight before coming home to face Supporters’ Shield-leading Nashville SC at home on Saturday. They’ll have to play at least tonight’s game without Martin Ojeda, who is out with a thigh injury sustained some time between his first-half goal a week ago in a friendly against FC Dallas and the time the availability report dropped on Tuesday.

But it isn’t all bad news for the Lions, who should have both Antoine Griezmann and Dike in the lineup. Griezmann was the club’s highly prized and widely publicized summer Designated Player signing, while Dike’s return to Orlando came together more recently, following his departure from West Bromwich Albion. They’ll help the club’s offense, but the attack hasn’t been the issue in 2026 — it’s been the historically porous defense, which is on pace to shatter the MLS record for goals conceded.

Meanwhile, San Jose is one of the first half of the season’s biggest surprises, as the Quakes have been outstanding in 2026. Scoring 34 goals while conceding just 15, San Jose is among the league leaders in goals scored (tied for third), goals conceded (third), and goal differential (+19, third).

The Earthquakes are 4-2-1 at home and are coming off a 3-1 road win at Portland in their last game prior to the World Cup break. San Jose boasts Golden Boot challenger Preston Judd, who leads the Quakes with 11 goals, adding two assists in his 15 appearances. Ousseni Bouda has chipped in five goals and three assists. Niko Tsakiris leads the team with seven assists to go along with his two goals, but he’s still recovering from a lower body injury and is not available tonight. However, the arrival of Timo Werner (four goals and five assists in just seven games) has truly elevated Bruce Arena’s Quakes, and he’ll need to be one of the main focal points for the Orlando defense.

To have any shot at taking something from this game, the Lions will need to play better road defense than they have all season. Orlando can score goals, but with Ojeda out, Griezmann will need to adapt quickly, and someone other than the team’s leading scorer will need to find the net.

The Lions will play without Ojeda (thigh), Joran Gerbet (knee), Nolan Miller (knee), Colin Guske (international duty), and Clovis Archage (international duty). In addition, Marco Pasalic may or may not have returned to the team after the World Cup. He was not in training Monday, although interim head coach Martin Perelman said he expected the Croatian back soon. The Earthquakes will be without Nonso Adimabua (lower body), former Lion Earl Edwards Jr. (lower body), DeJuan Jones (lower body), and Tsakiris (you guessed it, lower body…come on, San Jose).

Match Content


Official Lineups:

Orlando City (4-4-2)

Goalkeeper: Maxime Crepeau.

Defenders: Adrian Marin, David Brekalo, Robin Jansson, Griffin Dorsey.

Midfielders: Ivan Angulo, Braian Ojeda, Eduard Atuesta, Tiago.

Forwards: Justin Ellis, Antoine Griezmann.

Bench: Javier Otero, Bernardo Rhein, Tahir Reid-Brown, Zakaria Taifi, Iago, Wilder Cartagena, Luis Otavio, Harvey Sarajian, Tyrese Spicer

San Jose Earthquakes (4-2-3-1)

Goalkeeper: Angus Gunn.

Defenders: Jamar Ricketts, Reid Roberts, Daniel Munie, Benjamin Kikanovic.

Defensive Midfielders: Beau Lerouox, Ronaldo Vieira.

Attacking Midfielders: Timo Werner, Nick Fernandez, Ousseni Bouda.

Forwards: Preston Judd.

Bench: Jonathan Gonzalez, Dave Romney, Paul Marie, Jack Skahan, Jack Jasinski, Ian Harkes, Francesco Montali, Max Floriani, Darius Johnson.

Referees

REF: Elijio Arreguin.
AR1: Adam Wienckowski.
AR2: Mike Nickerson.
4TH: Timothy Ford.
VAR: Jose Carlos Rivero.
AVAR: TJ Zablocki.


How to Watch

Match Time: 10:30 p.m.

Venue: PayPal Park — San Jose, CA.

TV/Live Stream: Apple TV.

Radio: AM 810 FOX Sports Radio Orlando (English), Mega 97.1 FM (Spanish), Nossa Rádio 1160 AM-WRLZ (Portuguese).

Social Media: For rapid reaction and live updates, follow us on Bluesky Social at @themaneland.bsky.social or follow Orlando City’s official Twitter (@OrlandoCitySC) or Bluesky (@OrlandoCitySC) feed.


Enjoy the match. Go City!

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Podcasts

PawedCast Episode 542: Tampa Bay Friendly, McGuire Traded, OCB Beats Cincinnati, and More

Lions maul the Rowdies in friendly action, OCB wins on the road, and it’s transfer season.

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Image of Antoine Griezmann and Ivan Angulo celebrating a goal in a friendly against the Tampa Bay Rowdies.
Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

Orlando City welcomed I-4 Derby rival Tampa Bay to Inter&Co Stadium for a friendly match on Wednesday and then proceeded to bludgeon the Rowdies with a couple of hammers named Antoine Griezmann and Justin Ellis. The two attackers combined for a goal and four assists in a 6-0 beatdown of the team from the Gulf Coast, with five different Lions scoring and Griffin Dorsey forcing an own goal. We discuss Griezmann’s first minutes with Orlando City, what the team showed in its formation, and how good Justin Ellis’ vision is.

Oh, and it’s also transfer season now. Duncan McGuire is on his way out and Marco Pasalic reportedly will follow soon, while a new left back may be headed from Spain to Orlando.

Following all of that, we discuss Maxime Crepeau being added to the MLS All-Star Team and the announcement that he’ll participate in the 2026 MLS All-Star Skills Challenge.

Our mailbagbox asked us about which World Cup semifinalist players we’d want to join Orlando this season (if we could only pick one), and more. Remember, if there’s anything — and we do mean anything — you want us to address on the show, just ask us by tweeting it to us at @TheManeLand with the hashtag #AskTMLPC, or hitting us up on Bluesky Social with that same hashtag.

After the mailbagbox, we dive into OCB’s 2-1 road win at FC Cincinnati 2. It wasn’t the prettiest game by the Young Lions, but they managed to do enough to earn three points on the road, where they’ll stay to face Chattanooga on Saturday. We briefly preview that game.

Finally, Orlando City will be in Dallas Wednesday for the second of two friendlies leading up to the restart of the MLS season. It’s unlikely we’ll get a lot of details about that one, but we’ll see what happens. Maybe the FC Dallas folks will help us out.

Be sure to rate and review our show wherever you get your podcasts. Remember, we’ll read any five-star reviews we get on Apple Podcasts on the next show.

If you’d like to support our independent writing and podcasting efforts, we’d love to have you as a subscriber or donor over at our Buy Me a Coffee site.


Here’s how No. 542 went down:

0:15 – Orlando City crushed the Rowdies, the transfer season is in full swing, plus: hey now, Crepeau’s an all-star.

28:50 – The mailbagbox is always good for a hypothetical scenario.

36:54 – The Young Lions slipped past Cincy and head to Chattanooga, while the senior Lions head to Dallas.

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