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Handicapping Orlando City’s Dark Horse Odds in the Eastern Conference
Orlando City returned home and claimed yet another home victory, making it the third home win of the season in as many tries. To put it simply and fairly, the Lions have looked rather solid at home and, most importantly, their defense has been up to a lot of good.
Joe Bendik has quite literally been a wall of a goalkeeper at home. For Bendik, 11 of his 12 saves on the season have come at Orlando City Stadium, while he only managed one save on the road against the Crew and two goals were scored against him, albeit a small sample size. It is almost as if Bendik refuses to be scored on in the new stadium that Orlando City has so elegantly christened, and he’s been a joy to watch play thus far.
But now, Orlando City, a third-year MLS club, is pushing to do something extraordinary. As a long season still awaits us, it is only fair that we look ahead to what Orlando could possibly do by season’s end with its current run of form.
Is Orlando City a Dark Horse to Win the East?
It is not a simple question to answer, even though many outsiders, and even fans of the team, will automatically say no. But not even a chance? That seems a little unfair at this point.
Two things are for certain as of now. One is that Orlando City is going to be a very tough team to beat at home. The Lions have proven this as both New York clubs have come to town and lost, along with Philadelphia. Orlando City has only given up one goal in the three home games and scored four. The second thing to know is that Orlando City has a powerhouse in the goal-scoring department — Cyle Larin.
However, even with the young powerhouse, the offense is still lackluster to say the least. The offense failed to put together a goal in its one trip away from the new stadium and has only managed a total of four goals in four games. Only one game has seen multiple goals to this point, which came against Philly. Three wins and one loss doesn’t sound like a team that is struggling, but in some ways it can be argued that the Lions are.
The Lions currently sit tied for last in the league in goals scored, although they’ve played fewer matches than anyone but Dallas and Colorado. The leader, Portland, has 16 goals and then there is Atlanta, the new kids in town, who have managed 13 goals on the season. Orlando City hasn’t had the one big outbreak in goal scoring quite yet, but luckily the team has been successful in its own way — it’s winning matches. While this is happening, the important thing to remember is that Orlando’s best facilitator — Kaká — is out with injury. His return could spark the offense and hopefully shift the tide in the right direction.
While the offense is struggling, what about defense?
Well, the defense has been good minus an away defeat to the Crew, and even then it wasn’t all bad — it just wasn’t all good. The games at home have been excellent, led by Bendik and defender Jonathan Spector. Both players have been excellent in leading the defense and the home stand has been absolutely outstanding lately because of their efforts.
A dark horse is explained as a candidate or competitor about whom little is known but who unexpectedly wins or succeeds. It is not a head-scratcher: Orlando City is a dark horse to win the East.
Why?
- Kaká is still set to return, and with him returning the offense should improve. Right now the offense is just solid, some finishing issues notwithstanding, but adding in that mix of Brazilian flair will really improve the team in possession and the ability to push the ball forward (which is already solid). Kaká brings a skill set that is extremely difficult to find in this league, and with it, there is no doubt that this team improves.
- Larin will aim to be the top goal scorer in the league by the time the 2017 season is over. With three goals to his name already, Larin is continuing to prove that he is a top threat in this league after totaling 31 goals in his first two seasons. A lot of whispers loom around him as far as moving across the pond at the close of this season. While that is a possibility for the future, for now Larin is set to dominate MLS, and with Kaká on the comeback trail, all I can say is watch out.
- Carlos Rivas is bound to break out this season. Rivas is playing at a high level currently, as he has become a major threat in attack. For now it has only led to setting up other players, which is wonderful, but in the blink of an eye I fully expect Rivas to start scoring goals and lighting up defenses even more.
- Spector has changed the mindset at the back; his play has been excellent this season. Spector’s ability to read the game and defend crosses with relative ease has bolstered the defense tremendously. As fans know, the defense has been a touchy subject over the past two seasons. With the way things are going now, expect things to be different with Spector leading the back line.
- Bendik is unbreakable. Well, not entirely, but you get the gist. Bendik has been a wonder in goal and, in times of need, he has come to the rescue. His ability to be a shot stopper and a goalkeeper that attacks the ball with authority has helped the defense look great at times. When the defense has a lapse, Bendik has been there to save them, and while it is him just doing his job, he has done it exceptionally well.
- Jason Kreis is finding his rhythm as Orlando City manager. The lineups and formations are coming together nicely for Kreis and his staff. Kreis has added exactly the right pieces since his arrival with the team, and for those guys that he didn’t find, he found new homes for them. Kreis is coming into his own at Orlando City and even though I hate to harp on it, with Kaká inevitably returning you can only expect the roster to deepen and improve.
So it can certainly be argued that Orlando City is a dark horse to win the East, but only time will tell if this is merely a fantasy or a reality. Right now, a lot of things are looking good and have a great chance of only getting better down the road. The three home wins have been wonderful and if that keeps up, then you should at the very least expect playoffs.
Winning the East will be hard, but it is not an impossible or undoable task — in fact, with each win, it becomes a more believable task.
Podcasts
PawedCast Episode 506: Cincinnati Rewind, OCB-Carolina Core, Columbus Preview, and More
The Lions claimed a late draw at Cincy and now host Columbus while OCB’s playoff hopes hang by a thread.
Orlando City left it late again. Tyrese Spicer reprised his role from the Nashville game by providing the assist for a goal late in stoppage time, but this time it was a different goal scorer and a road draw instead of a home win. Alex Freeman played great against FC Cincinnati, so it was fitting that he literally pulled a point out of thin air on a Sunday night that saw the Lions squander numerous good opportunities to score while allowing the hosts only one Kevin Denkey strike.
We look back at the key moments, players, and plays of a critical road match, check our score predictions, and make our selections for Man of the Match, splitting the vote
This week’s mailbagbox asked us a pair of trivia questions and added an individual question for each host. Remember, if there’s anything — and we do mean anything — you want us to address on the show, just ask us by tweeting it to us at @TheManeLand with the hashtag #AskTMLPC, or hitting us up on Bluesky Social with that same hashtag.
OCB got two points at Carolina Core FC when it needed three, but it did enough to stay alive in the postseason race but there is no margin for error. The Young Lions fell behind by two goals, battled back to get level, conceded again, and once again equalized on the road. Carlos Mercado then helped his team win the penalty shootout on his birthday to claim the extra point. OCB must beat FC Cincinnati 2 on Sunday at home and get help to reach the postseason.
Finally, Orlando City returns home with another game against a good team from the Buckeye State, as the Columbus Crew visits Inter&Co Stadium on Saturday. Whether Diego Rossi plays or not, the Crew are always a difficult opponent. We break down the series history, look at the battle ahead, provide our key matchups, and make our predictions for the final score.
Be sure to rate and review our show wherever you get your podcasts. Remember, we’ll read any five-star reviews we get on Apple Podcasts on the next show.
If you’d like to support our independent writing and podcasting efforts, we’d love to have you as a subscriber or donor over at our Buy Me a Coffee site.
Here’s how No. 506 went down:
0:15 – Orlando City didn’t seem to want to put the ball in the net, but maybe that’s because it wasn’t yet the death of stoppage time. Earlier goals are OK too, guys!
27:55 – The mailbagbox offers trivia, but no prizes if we get them right.
39:11 – OCB was listening to Meat Loaf and thinking two out of three ain’t bad, and the senior Lions prepare for Columbus.
Podcasts
PawedCast Episode 502: Galaxy Rewind, Ramiro Enrique Transfer News, OCB Defeats Crown Legacy, and More
Lions leave Leagues Cup empty handed, Ramiro Enrique could be on the move soon, OCB gets a vital win, and more
I couldn’t tell you why this show is nearly an hour other than the fact that we are verbose. Orlando City crashed out of Leagues Cup with back-to-back losses in games that had a Concacaf Champions Cup berth on the line. The Lions did almost nothing in the first half against the LA Galaxy on the road, and threw Martin Ojeda’s second-half equalizer away just seven minutes after he scored it with a horrendous turnover in their defensive third.
We discuss Orlando City’s 2-1 road loss, which featured one of Pedro Gallese’s best-ever saves as a Lion, although it ultimately didn’t matter much, looked back at our score predictions, and made our selections for Man of the Match.
We also discussed Seattle’s 3-0 win over Inter Miami in the final and the shenanigans that the Herons pulled after losing.
Ramiro Enrique was not in uniform Sunday night in the wake of reports that he’s about to be sold for a reported $3 million to a Saudi team. Although the timing isn’t perfect, it would be a good return for the Argentine striker.
This week’s mailbagbox asked about ice cream, donuts, Carlos Mercado vs. Javier Otero, and more. Remember, if there’s anything — and we do mean anything — you want us to address on the show, just ask us by tweeting it to us at @TheManeLand with the hashtag #AskTMLPC, or hitting us up on Bluesky Social with that same hashtag.
OCB picked up a much-needed three points with a home win over Crown Legacy at the death that nearly immediately became a draw at the even more death. Mercado was sensational in the match for the Young Lions and Thalles scored the timely goal to push the club over the playoff line for the time being. I nearly started to preview an OCB game that is more than a week ago, but the important thing is I stopped myself, otherwise the show would have been even longer.
The senior Lions are also off this week, so we’ll see you next week!
Be sure to rate and review our show wherever you get your podcasts. Remember, we’ll read any five-star reviews we get on Apple Podcasts on the next show.
If you’d like to support our independent writing and podcasting efforts, we’d love to have you as a subscriber or donor over at our Buy Me a Coffee site.
Here’s how No. 502 went down:
0:15 – Orlando City looked to be following the same script as in the win at LA back in March, but then coughed up the ball in a dangerous spot to one of the Galaxy’s best scorers.
29:36 – The mailbagbox is trying to make us fat(ter).
46:38 – OCB has put together two consecutive late wins as the Young Lions try to get back into playoff contention after several rough weeks.
Uncategorized
Announcement: Change to The Mane Land’s Approach to Live Updates on Social Media
Here at The Mane Land, we were able to build a rather sizable following on social media early in our growth. We quickly surpassed a thousand followers while we were still a free independent WordPress site with just a few contributors posting about one new story per day. This helped us get the attention of SBNation, which we eventually joined.
When we joined SBNation’s roster of blogs, we quickly rose up the ranks to one of the most followed MLS team-specific accounts on Facebook and Twitter (especially the latter). We always had great engagement on Twitter, with mixed results on Facebook.
With all of that said, we take the relationship with our social media followers seriously, because our readers have helped our growth on those channels (and vice versa), and we know who our friends are. We’ve met a lot of our Twitter followers in person over the years, and we value those times we’ve spent with you.
All of this serves to preface that we’ve decided to change some things up, although it’s nothing too radical. Starting Friday, March 28, TML will no longer be live tweeting matches on Twitter (sorry, I’m still never going to call it X, because that’s dumb). We will also be reducing our already dwindling presence there. I want to emphasize that we are not deleting our account. We will continue to post new stories to the artist formerly known as Twitter. But that’s about all we’ll be doing there. This week’s OCB game will be the last match for which we’ll provide live updates on Twitter.
We will be moving all of our live game coverage to our Bluesky Social account.
Please note: This move should in no way be construed as a political one. There are several factors at play, and while some of our writers may not share political alignment with Twitter’s owner, that is not why I’ve chosen this course — with the support of the TML staff. If this was a political choice, we’d simply delete the account and quit using the platform entirely.
Once upon a time, Twitter used to drive a decent-ish (but, if I’m being honest, never great) amount of engagement to our website, which we could see in our analytics. It was also a place where we could engage with our followers, exchanging thoughts on the club and its players, and occasionally arguing a little bit about those topics.
Before you could simply buy a blue checkmark, Vox Media assisted us in getting vetted by the former ownership, which helped legitimize us as a reliable outlet covering Orlando City SC. That too helped us grow our follower base, but it all went away when the current owner decided to overpay for the platform and tried to monetize it by letting anyone buy a blue checkmark, flooding the non-checkmarked accounts with ads. That was the start of when we began seeing Twitter become less useful as a marketing tool for TML and when it started driving a lot less traffic to our website and podcasts.
Most of our post engagement on Twitter has dried up because of people leaving (or spending less time on) the platform. More likes and retweets are coming from bot accounts than ever before. Typically, we have been seeing a high percentage of post likes coming from obvious bot accounts. And it’s just not a pleasant place to be. There are far too many ads, and most of the “ads” we see in our feed aren’t advertising any service or product. They seem to be individual tweets boosted by…I don’t know, some algorithm, or maybe the account’s owner is actually paying for things like this to be boosted. Most, but not all, of those “ads” are political in nature, and many of the political ones feature easily disprovable lies.
But sometimes it’s random stuff like this:

When every fourth or fifth post is something like the above (or often something worse), it’s just not an enjoyable user experience. We’re not going to give the world’s richest man more money just to cleanse our timeline of it and have the old Twitter experience back (that’s the entire point of “premium,” to get us to pay to go ad free). That’s as valid a choice for a business model as any, I guess, but it’s not one we’re interested in boosting just to get things to go back to how they were.
Between the drop in engagement, the rise of unchecked bot activity, and the weirdness and frequency of the “ads,” it’s a place we’d like to spend less time. Again, we aren’t leaving. We’ll continue to let people on Twitter know when new stories drop. That’s always been our basic approach to Facebook, where we’ve never received a whole lot of engagement.
Bluesky Social, on the other hand, has been quite enjoyable in all the same ways Twitter used to be. With less than a third of the followers that we have on Twitter, our replies, likes, and reposts have been much higher on average over the past year, than those same posts on Twitter. Our podcast listeners submit far more questions there than on Twitter (but you can still ask on Twitter and we’ll answer them on the show). The Bluesky interface is slightly more clunky on desktop than Twitter (desktop is an important part of how I provide live updates during games), but it feels pretty much like Twitter used to. I have been trying to post on both Twitter and Bluesky for OCSC games, but doing both is problematic and more than a little stressful. By limiting live updates to Bluesky, it’ll make things easier for those of us doing this in our spare time for no real financial gain. I’m not asking the staff to start Bluesky accounts, but some of our writers already have them.
Our ask of you on this subject is…nothing. If you’re not on Bluesky, and you decide you don’t want or need another social media account, that’s a valid choice. If you want to join us on Bluesky, we’d love to see you. Our posts about our stories will be (and have been for some time) identical on both platforms (and on Facebook). The only change will be that we (mainly I) will spend more time on Bluesky, less on Twitter, and our live game coverage will be on Bluesky. You can still @ us on Twitter if you like. We may just be a bit less responsive.
Things change, especially technology and social media. Some of you remember MySpace. Or even AOL. It’s entirely possible that a future Twitter with better control of bots and ads may one day be worth egaging with more often again. That’s another reason for us not to delete the account.
At The Mane Land, our main reason for existence continues to be that we love telling the stories of our favorite MLS, NWSL, and MLS NEXT Pro soccer teams. That won’t change — even if the way we promote those stories does from time to time.
Feel free to reach out with any comments or questions you have. And, as always, thank you for your support over the last 11 years.
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