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Intelligence Report: Orlando City vs. Colorado Rapids

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Orlando City (5-1-0) returns home after a successful business trip to New York City, where the Lions claimed all three points from Yankee Stadium. The Lions will feel good to get back into the cozy confines of Orlando City Stadium but they’ll face one of the tougher defenses in MLS when the Colorado Rapids visit tomorrow afternoon.

The Rapids have conceded just nine goals in six matches so far this season — good for the sixth fewest in MLS — and allow the third fewest shots against per game (10.5), behind only New England (10.4), and Sporting Kansas City (8.9). The problem with Colorado is the team has only scored five times en route to a 1-4-1 record.

For more on the Rapids, John Rosch from SB Nation’s Colorado blog, Burgundy Wave, was kind enough to stop by and tell us more about his favorite team. And you can read my answers to John’s queries over at their place.

Colorado’s fortunes seem to have reversed so far in 2017 after a resurgent 2016 season. What’s the biggest difference with the team this season?

John Rosch: I think there are a number of differences this season. The first of which is difficult to quantify: luck. The Rapids had nine 1-0 wins in 2016 and seemed to have that bit of luck behind them. They defended well and were completely comfortable in sitting back, absorbing pressure and sitting on a 1-0 lead. Regardless of who was in goal, there was no fear of holding a 1-0 lead.

The last home match (vs. RSL on April 15), they held a 1-0 lead going into the last 10 minutes of the match and surrendered two goals that were completely preventable. That bit of luck they had last year is simply gone.  

Also, the team has been beset by injuries, losing 2016 starters Axel Sjoberg and Shkelzen Gashi for extended periods of time. They were not just starters, but they were leaders on the pitch.

And, I think that the tactical inflexibility of Pablo Mastroeni has hurt this team. A 4-2-3-1 is fine if you are playing good defense and can score on the counter. But the Rapids cannot do either this season. As this team and franchise evolves, so must Pablo. Right now, this team does not look like a playoff team (yes, it is early), but it is up to Pablo to find the right formula for this team to start stringing together results. Remember, in 2016 the Rapids went from April 13 to July 30 without a loss. That feels like a lifetime ago. All is not lost, but things are not working right now.    

How did the recent trade of Marc Burch and Sam Cronin to Minnesota affect the team?

JR: It has been, in a word, brutal. Losing your captain and starting defensive midfielder (Sam Cronin) was one thing, but to lose a quality starting left back in Marc Burch has ripped this team apart. They are completely out of sorts and it will take time to get over it. The large concern is that the Rapids did not have a quality replacement for Burch and the replacement for Cronin broke his back in his first game as a starter (Bismark Adjei-Boateng). Certainly you can’t predict injuries, but the Rapids got hosed in these moves and it is clear that they did not have a plan B when plan A went down the tubes. 

What do you see as the key match-up in this game that could decide the outcome?

JR: I will be curious to see how the Rapids deal with a very prolific front line that Orlando City has. The Rapids will (most likely) start Bobby Burling and Jared Watts in central defense and can they hold off Cyle Larin? And I might be more concerned with whether the Rapids get a decent looks on goal. For all of the credit that Orlando City is getting offensively, their defense might be best part of this team. The Rapids don’t generate much offense, so this one will be tough for them.

What injuries/suspensions will keep players out Saturday, and what is your projected starting lineup and final score prediction?

JR: Injuries: Sjoberg and Adjei-Boateng are out and Dillon Serna is a question mark.  

Suspensions: Tim Howard, Kortne Ford. 

Starting XI (4-2-3-1): Zac MacMath, Mekeil Williams, Bobby Burling, Jared Watts, Eric Miller, Micheal Azira, Mohammed Saeid, Shkelzen Gashi, Dillon Powers, Marlon Hairston, Alan Gordon.

Predicted Score: Orlando City 2:0 Colorado Rapids.


Big thanks to John from The Burgundy Wave for stopping by and giving us a bit of a scouting report on the Rapids.

Orlando City

Orlando City’s 2024 Offensive Blueprint (So Far)

An evaluation of how Orlando City has been trying to score goals in 2024.

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

All right, now that we have pushed the limit on puns and wordplay about that album, let’s look at some numbers related to Orlando City’s offense. First, let’s start with the direction of play, because Orlando City has a very clear plan of attack in 2024, and it involves the left side. According to the tracking from whoscored.com, Orlando City attacks down the left side on nearly half of its possessions.

No team in MLS favors one side of the field as frequently as Orlando City’s 45% on the left side, and it is interesting that it is so high down the left because Facundo Torres, generally regarded as the squad’s most creative and dangerous player, plays most frequently on the right side of the field. I think there are three primary reasons for the left side favoritism:

  • Iván Angulo is one of the fastest players in MLS and spends most of his time on the left side of the field, so the team tries to get him into space so he can use that speed to get the defense on its heels.
  • Orlando City has three left-footed players who love a cross so much I am surprised they play for Orlando City and not Vatican City. Rafael Santos averages 5.1 crosses per 90 mins (27th in MLS), Nico Lodeiro averages 5.6 (16th), and Martín Ojeda averages 9.61 (second). Ojeda has been playing more centrally recently, but he still drifts to the left frequently. Lodeiro does the same, and Santos nearly exclusively stays on the left side. All three of them are crossing machines.
  • Torres loves to cut back into the middle from his normal slot on the right side of the field, and so crossing it from left to right gives him space to operate, as the defense has to recover on a switch of field, and a scrambling defense against a talented attacking player is advantageous for Orlando City. Torres is fifth in MLS in receiving passes from 10+ yards away in the offensive area of the field, and his per-90-minute average for those receptions has increased from 2022 (8.4) to 2023 (9.8) to 2024 (11.4). Additionally, here is Facu’s shot chart for the year, courtesy of fotmob.com, and you can see that of his seven non-penalty-kick goals, all of them come from the right half of the field (his most recent goal against New England is highlighted with the red circle, because after a few minutes I gave up on trying to figure out how to show this without having one highlighted):

Expanding a little bit off of the direction of play, but returning to the second item in the list above, Orlando City leads all of MLS with an average of 21.32 crosses per 90 minutes. The other 28 MLS teams average 16.6 crosses per 90 minutes, so Orlando City is crossing the ball 28% more frequently than the average MLS team. The Lions have a physical presence in Duncan McGuire in the middle, so this makes sense to target him with crosses into the 18, and in fact the team is fourth in MLS this season with an average of 2.4 completed crosses into the penalty areas per 90 minutes.

It is not just Duncan though, of the 36 goals Orlando City players have scored this season (the other three are own goals), nine of them have come on a header and by eight different players. That 25% of goals scored on a header is the highest percentage for any Orlando City team in fbref.com’s tracking (goes back to 2018) and ranks the team only behind Austin FC’s 29% in MLS this season.

All crosses do not necessarily end in headers, but nearly all headers come from crosses, and the irony of the fact that Orlando City is scoring a high percentage of its goals from headers is that the Lions rank, to use a technical term, DFL in the league in percentage of aerial balls won (40.1%, and the next lowest is 45.4%). It’s kind of like the tagline to those Most Interesting Man in the World beer commercials from Dos Equis — the Lions don’t often win aerial balls, but when they do, they score goals.

Flipping from balls in the air to balls that are generally played on the ground, according to the data tracked by Opta on fbref.com, Orlando City is seventh in MLS in completed through balls per 90 minutes with an average of 1.5. The Lions have been in the top third of MLS in four of the last five seasons in this statistic, as this is clearly a staple of an Óscar Pareja-coached squad.

If you look at the individual MLS players who are leading the league in completing these dangerous balls, it is a veritable who’s who of creative players across the league. Say what you will about Luis Muriel, and I wrote a whole article about him a few weeks ago, but his passing ability is excellent, and it did not surprise me at all to see him high on this list and among the other well-known names. Here are the top 15, which also includes Lodeiro, among players who have played at least 500 minutes:

I touched on the left side focus earlier and how Angulo’s speed plays a large role in why the team plays more frequently down the left side, and that comes into play here as well with Orlando City’s predilection for playing through balls. It is also now time for Dagur Dan Thórhallsson to enter the chat, because he is just as much of a through ball target as Ruan was for several years in making speed runs up the right side of the field, and he ranks 24th among defenders in goal-creating actions per 90 minutes (0.24). Coincidentally, he also ranks 24th in shot-creating actions per 90 minutes (2.0). McGuire is also a target for these through balls as he makes excellent shallow runs behind defenders to then run onto balls played in front of him, and Ramiro Enrique is also pacey enough to do the same.

The completed crosses and through balls, as well as the fact that Orlando City is in the top 10 in total completed passes per 90 minutes, contribute to the team leading MLS with 10.1 completed passes into the penalty area per 90 minutes. The rest of MLS averages only 8.4, so Orlando City’s offensive tactics puts the team 20% higher than the rest of the league in terms of its frequency of completing passes to teammates inside the box.

Now, what teams want are goals, not completed passes into the penalty area, but you can see what the Lions are trying to do offensively by looking what these numbers reveal about how they are directing their attacking play.

Orlando City has a burner on the left (Angulo) and also several left-footed players who have the ability to whip in a dangerous cross (Ojeda, Lodeiro, Santos), so the focus is more on going down the left than the middle or the right. The Lions do have a fullback (Thórhallsson) with pace on the right too, so he is a target when they go right, and as a former midfielder, he has the ability to create offense coming forward, so he does with great frequency. The best finisher (Torres) is out on the right but loves to cut back to his left, and this year there is a higher focus on getting him the ball in space as opposed to having him leading the buildup.

Three players (Ojeda, Lodeiro, Muriel) are sharing the 10 role and releasing through balls to the outside and inside threats, and McGuire and Enrique are essentially serving as soccer versions of a basketball rim runner, attacking the goalmouth and trying to score in any way possible.

It all sounds great on paper, but for much of the season the offense was sputtering — so much so that Orlando City has scored more goals in the last seven games (20, 2.9 goals per game) than it did in its first 18 games (19, 1.1 goals per game). The first half of the season contained several issues that I believe contributed heavily to the low goal-scoring output, with several injuries, games missed for international duty, and competing in Concacaf Champions Cup at the same time as the start of the regular season, forcing squad rotation and players playing outside of their normal positions.

There was also just some poor play during those early months as well, some self-inflicted poor performances. I believe that Orlando City has found something though in the last few weeks, and while the Lions may not score 2.9 goals per game for the rest of the season, I think that what we have seen recently is a settled team of players who know their roles and understand the strategy, and who have the ability to execute that strategy.

Just 17 years after it was released, Jay-Z’s The Blueprint was selected by the Library of Congress for preservation in the United States National Recording Registry for being “culturally, historically, or aesthetically significant.” Let’s hope that 17 years from now, in 2041, we are all looking back fondly on what became an athletically significant 2024 season for Orlando City.

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Orlando City

Orlando City vs. CF Montreal: Three Keys to Victory

What do the Lions need to do to get a victory to start the Leagues Cup?

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Dan MacDonald, The Mane Land

Orlando City plays CF Montreal in its first 2024 Leagues Cup match Friday night at Inter&Co Stadium. The Lions have been on a nice five-match undefeated streak during the regular season. Oscar Pareja loves tournament play and will certainly do everything he can to win this first match.

What does Orlando City need to do to defeat CF Montreal in the Don Garber Loves Money Cup…er, the Leagues Cup?

Stop the Canucks

Montreal has scored 34 goals in the regular season. However, only four of those goals came in the last five matches. Still, Orlando City seems to have trouble with this Montreal squad no matter where the match is played. As such, I want to see the defense that shut down D.C. United and Nashville SC, not the one that allowed multiple goals against the Chicago Fire.

That means Pareja needs to get the left back position sorted. I know he wants the Rafael Santos of 2023 to show up in 2024. So far, Santos has not found the good form from a year ago. Kyle Smith has been mostly good when he’s gotten time on the left, but he’s not the first choice.

There’s also the matter of David Brekalo. I think that Pareja kept rolling with Rodrigo Schlegel because the Lions went on a run as Brekalo was on international duty. Now, he can re-insert Brekalo in the starting spot since it won’t affect the MLS standings. Whether he does or not is the real question.

Smart Rotation

I mentioned the potential options on the back line, but there are other players who could use a rest, could recover from a knock, or need some additional playing time. Of course, Pareja tends to stick with what is working, so I’m not sure how much rotation we will see to start the match. He can, however, change up how he uses his substitutes.

If Pareja decides to sit Facundo Torres to allow him to be fully healthy, he still has Martin Ojeda playing well. Jeorgio Kocevski has been effective in his limited minutes, making him a good candidate to see some more time, even if he doesn’t start. Competitions like Leagues Cup can allow the team to heal up or rest up before the regular season starts back up.

Revive the Attack

Ramiro Enrique is on a scoring streak. I’m glad he is since Duncan McGuire is with the U.S. Olympic team, but Orlando City needs more. I think the Leagues Cup is a good opportunity to try anything and everything to get Luis Muriel better integrated into the Orlando City attack. He has the talent, but something hasn’t quite clicked yet.

This is also an opportunity for others to contribute some goals. It’s been a bit since Nico Lodeiro scored one. Ojeda could use a banger to get going again, and don’t forget Jack Lynn. Montreal has given up 49 goals in the regular season and has a -15 goal differential. The Lions need to take advantage of such a defense to spark some offensive production.


That is what I will be looking for Friday night. Let me know your thoughts in the comments below. Vamos Orlando!

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Lion Links

Lion Links: 7/25/24

Marta’s legacy, Orlando Pride get ready for Monterrey, U.S. men lose to France in Olympic soccer, and more.

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Image courtesy of Orlando Pride

How’s it going, Mane Landers? I’m settling back into the swing of things after a weekend trip to Maine that featured so many lobster rolls that I’m pretty sure my veins have more butter than blood in them at this point. All of the soccer going on takes some of the sting out of returning to work at least. Let’s dive into today’s links!

Marta’s Journey to Paris

Orlando Pride and Brazilian star Marta will begin her final international tournament today when Brazil takes on Nigeria this afternoon. Through interviews with the coaches, teammates, and opponents she’s had over the course of her career, ESPN detailed the impact she’s had on soccer. It’s a great feature that I strongly suggest you read in full, as it also touches on the instability of women’s soccer at the club level that she and many others had to battle against. From her teenage years in Brazil to becoming an outspoken ambassador for the sport, there are plenty of great vignettes into her life as a player included as well.

Orlando Pride Prepare for Monterrey

After losing a penalty shootout to the North Carolina Courage in their NWSL x Liga MX Femenil Summer Cup opener, the Orlando Pride will aim to right the ship when they take on Monterrey on Saturday. It’s been over a month since the Pride have played at home, which should give the team a boost while notable players are at the Olympics. None of the Liga MX teams beat an NWSL team in the first round of matches, and Monterrey lost 3-1 to Racing Louisville. Pride Head Coach Seb Hines spoke on how he’s excited to see how the team matches up against a team from outside the NWSL, along with how it will be a good experience for the players.

Checking In With Dennis Chin

As part of the recurring series to put a spotlight on those who have played a part in Orlando City’s history, former Lion Dennis Chin spoke on his time in Orlando during the team’s USL days. It’s been 10 years since Chin played in Orlando, where he scored 32 goals across 103 appearances and won the 2012 USL Pro Golden Boot. His family came to Orlando from Jamaica when he was young, and playing for the club gave him a chance to represent the City Beautiful.

“I felt like an extension of what everyone wanted to be,” he explained. “I felt like I was representing not just myself, but the whole city, my family and everyone. To still have that connection and to still feel that love, it just means the world to me.”

Chin tried his hand at coaching after retirement but stated he didn’t enjoy it, instead choosing to start his own player agency. He’s made strides providing player representation since then, using the lessons he learned from his own career to support players.

U.S. Olympic Men’s Team Loses to France

The United States Men’s Olympic Soccer Team had a rough first game in Paris after losing 3-0 to France. After a scoreless first half, Alexandre Lacazette gave France the lead in the 61st minute and Michael Olise scored another soon after. Orlando City forward Duncan McGuire started up top for the U.S. and was subbed off in the 86th minute, right after Loic Bade scored France’s third goal. The next match for the U.S. will be on Saturday against a New Zealand side that won 2-1 against Guinea. The Yanks will need to be sharper in that match and the group stage finale against Guinea on Tuesday if they want to advance.

MLS All-Stars Fall to Liga MX All-Stars

It was a rough night for the MLS All-Stars, who lost 4-1 to the Liga MX All-Stars in Columbus. Monterrey striker German Berterame got the scoring started in the 16th minute, but Columbus Crew duo Diego Rossi and Cucho Hernandez linked up for an equalizer a minute later. The Liga MX All-Stars scored again before halftime and then put the game to bed with a pair of back-to-back goals in the second half. The MLS All-Stars had their chances to score but lacked a finishing touch and weren’t able to claw their way back into the match. Attention now turns to the Leagues Cup, which kicks off on Friday and will pit MLS and Liga MX teams against each other.

Free Kicks

  • French winger Delphine Cascarino will join the San Diego Wave after the Olympics, signing a contract through the 2026 season. The 27-year-old has been with Lyon since making her professional debut in 2015.
  • An assistant coach and analyst for Canada were both removed from the team and sent home after New Zealand reported Canada for disrupting its Olympic training with a drone. Head Coach Bev Priestman withdrew herself from coaching the match as well.
  • The Olympic match between Argentina and Morocco had to be suspended for two hours due to fans rushing the field to protest a goal deep in stoppage time. What would have been the equalizer from Argentina was disallowed for offside upon video review after the delay, and Morocco went on to win 2-1.
  • American striker Ricardo Pepi scored a hat trick in PSV Eindhoven’s friendly against FC Eindhoven.
  • Konrad de la Fuente is headed to Switzerland after being transferred from Marseille to FC Lausanne. The American has spent the past two seasons on loan, playing for Eibar in Spain’s second division last year.
  • The Belgian Pro League kicks off on Friday and there are some Americans to keep an eye out for, including Owen Otasowie, Mark McKenzie, and Westerlo duo Bryan Reynolds and Julian Placias.

That’s all I have for you today. I hope you all have a great Thursday and rest of your week!

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