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Intelligence Report: Orlando City at New England Revolution

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Orlando City is in need of a victory after three straight winless matches. Things won’t get any easier tonight as the Lions visit Gillette Stadium, where the New England Revolution is 1-0-3 this season. Orlando has yet to beat the Revs, who never seem to go away, even if you score in the second minute of stoppage time and then totally and completely legally block a cross with the front of your shoulder.

The Revolution are great at getting something out of the game, with six draws and a win on the season in nine matches. You could say they have only one victory but they've also failed to earn points only twice in nine games. So, is the glass half empty or half full?

Back with us to talk about the Revolution is Jake Catanese from SB Nation’s New England blog, The Bent Musket. I’ve answered Jake’s questions as well, and you can visit them to see my responses.

What do you think the Revs must to better than in the first meeting in Saturday's re-match against Orlando City and what did you think New England did well in that first match-up?

Jake Catanese: I think defensively the Revolution were very sound overall in Orlando a few weeks ago. Yes there was the early penalty but the center back pairing of Je-Vaughn Watson and Andrew Farrell played really well, with Watson in particular making up for giving away that PK. But basically what the Revs need to do is simply finish, it wasn’t a problem specific to the Orlando game but something they’re just not doing at all. Yes Teal Bunbury finished a point-blank chance, but the with all the possession the Revolution have gotten in the final third this season, in Orlando and everywhere else, the shots they have been getting off are just bad or easy saves for the opposing keepers. I said the Revolution need a breakout game where they score three or four goals and they’re still looking for that.

How will the Revolution’s mid-week draw against the Portland Timbers affect the way New England approaches the Orlando City match Saturday night?

JC: The Revs come into this game a little banged up but Jay Heaps will likely have his guys at or close to full strength even on a short week after rotating a few players against Portland. Scott Caldwell didn’t play at all with Daigo Kobayashi deputizing in the central midfield, London Woodberry could be an option at right back since he didn’t feature against the Timbers either. Striker remains an issue with Charlie Davies going down in the first half and being replaced by Juan Agudelo, though Femi Hollinger-Janzen has shown well off the bench and could be in line for serious minutes this weekend. If the attacking midfield trio of Diego FagundezLee NguyenKelyn Rowe remains unchanged, I’m not worried about anyone going the distance, but fatigue could always be a factor coming off a short week.

Both teams are going to be desperate for three points this weekend. Which team do you think is the more desperate team at this stage of the season, and why?

JC: New England has to be more desperate. They're at home and only have one win on the season. Somehow the Revs have played more games (9) than anyone else in the East (Chicago has played only six) and with everyone in the conference having games in hand, the Revs could very quickly find themselves several points below the red line. It's early in the season, yes, and the Revs can run just as hot as they can cold when it comes to winning and losing streaks in MLS, but this is a team that has to be considered desperate for a win.

Can you please give us any key injuries/suspensions the Revs are facing, as well as your predictions for the starting XI and the final score of the match?

JC: Here’s our injury report, but, ugh, where do we start? Charlie Davies is definitely out and Teal Bunbury is questionable so that leaves Agudelo, who just returned from his own injury as the likely starter. Coming off a short week it would be very easy to talk me into letting Hollinger-Janzen start and using Agudelo off the bench, especially with Femi in decent form from his short sub appearances. Chris Tierney is also still out and we’ll see if Donnie Smith makes a second consecutive start at the position or if Je-Vaughn Watson slides over from right back. Utility midfielder Steve Neumann who hasn’t featured yet in 2016 is also dealing with a knock and probably won’t be available for selection either.

Predicted Starting XI: Bobby Shuttleworth; Donnie Smith, Jose Goncalves, Andrew Farrell, Je-Vaughn Watson; Gershon Koffie, Scott Caldwell; Diego Fagundez, Lee Nguyen, Kelyn Rowe; Juan Agudelo

This is a very safe starting lineup and one that just has to get the job done at this point. Orlando did a very good job of forcing the Revs out wide and settling for crosses into the box and either Lee Nguyen just needs to take over a game and win it himself or the Revs are going to have figure out how to get on the end of one of those crosses. The Revs need a win, and it needs to be big. As I said on the PawedCast, 3-0 to the home side.

* * *

Big thanks to Jake from The Bent Musket for giving us the match view from the New England Revolution fan’s perspective.

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Orlando City

Intelligence Report: Orlando City vs. Philadelphia Union

Find out how the season has been treating the Philadelphia Union since the two teams met in the season opener.

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

Orlando City has strung two wins together for the first time in the 2025 Major League Soccer season, and now the Lions will try to make it three on the bounce. Along with the chance to extend the winning streak to three games comes the opportunity for revenge against the Philadelphia Union. The Union got the better of Orlando in the first game of the season to the tune of a 4-2 victory, and now we’ll have a chance to see what sort of progress OCSC has made since then.

Before that, though, I spoke to Matt Ralph, the managing editor of Philadelphia Soccer Now, to see how things have been going for Philly since that first game of the season. He was kind enough to help get us up to speed on a Union side that’s been one of the best in the league so far.

The Union don’t seem to have had much problem in adjusting to how Bradley Carnell wants to play. What’s made this team so successful through its opening six games?

Matt Ralph: The players have bought in, and the new additions have fit in well. One of Carnell’s strengths is his communication, and like Jim Curtin before him, he has done a great job of being consistent with his messaging and has created a challenging training environment that has prepared his players well week to week. Carnell has put his stamp on the “Philly tough” approach, no doubt, but many of the ingredients were already in place, and if anything, he’s cranked things up another notch with the intensity he expects day to day in training and within the 90 minutes. That’s not necessarily a bad thing, but both losses have shown that there is little margin for error, which is not really a new phenomenon for a team over the last decade that’s become known for punching above their weight. 

Let’s talk about Golden Boot leader, Tai Baribo. Outside of the great scoring numbers, what does he bring to the team?

MR: Baribo will be the first person to deflect credit to his teammates and his humility and team-first mentality is one of his greatest attributes. When you see him get stuck in to make a tackle in the middle of the park in the 80th minute, it illustrates how much his work rate and willingness to do anything to win — whether the goals come or not — impacts the team. 

Obviously it’s pretty early in a long season, but the Union have been impressive so far. What would be seen as a successful season for this group?

MR: It’s pretty much playoffs or bust, and once they get to the post-season, as we know, all bets are off. A competitive U.S. Open Cup run would be nice, though the schedule in May is not very kind.

Will any players be unavailable due to injury, suspension, etc.? What is your projected starting lineup and score prediction?

MR: Kai Wagner is questionable again, so look for him to come off the bench at the very least. I think there will be one or two changes in the starting XI, be it Indiana Vassilev, Bruno Damiani, or Olwethu Makhanya starting, but it will mostly be a similar look (with Nathan Harriel healthy) from match day 1. 

Projected starting XI: Andre Blake; Frankie Westfield, Ian Glavinovich, Jakob Glesnes, Nathan Harriel; Jovan Lukic, Danley Jean-Jacques, Quinn Sullivan; Daniel Gazdag, Bruno Damiani, Tai Baribo.

The Union haven’t drawn a match yet this season and Orlando has shown they can score (first in the league with 15 goals), so I’m going with a 2-2 draw.


Thank you to Matt for the refresher on the Union. Vamos Orlando!

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Lion Links

Lion Links: 4/4/25

Orlando City gets ready for the Philadelphia Union, OCSC partners with Footy Access, USWNT prepares for Brazil, and more.

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC

Happy Friday! It may feel a bit like the calm before the storm today, as Orlando City, Orlando City B, and the United States Women’s National Team are all in action on Saturday. It all makes for a fun next few days and I’m looking forward to it and also watching some kart racing on Sunday. Let’s get to the links!

Orlando City Gets Ready For the Philadelphia Union

The Lions are back in action Saturday with an away game against the Philadelphia Union at 7:30 p.m. Orlando has won its past two games and leads the league with 15 goals this season. The Union remain near the top of the Eastern Conference, but have lost two of their past three games. Duncan McGuire detailed how healthy competition and a willingness to defend has the offense firing on all cylinders heading into this match.

This will also be a rematch of the season opener on Feb. 22 when the Union won 4-2 at Inter&Co Stadium. Philadelphia Union Head Coach Bradley Carnell spoke on how Orlando is a different team compared to that match due to changes on offense and center back Robin Jansson’s recovery from a knock.

Orlando City Partners With Footy Access

With the Generation Adidas Cup set to take place later this month, Orlando City has partnered with Footy Access, which is a media company focused on youth soccer. This collaboration means fans will be able to enjoy highlights and interviews from Orlando’s academy as it progresses through the tournament. I’m pretty excited about being able to see how well Orlando’s academy is doing.

MLS NEXT also announced that new rankings focused on development rather than results will be used for its U-13 and U-14 age groups. These rankings will use an analytical formula that measures game play and the caliber of offensive and defensive actions. There will also be encouragement for teams to have their own identities on how they want to play.

USWNT Prepares to Face Brazil in Friendlies

The United States Women’s National Team will take on Brazil on Saturday in the first of two friendlies this international break, with the second match set for Tuesday. These friendlies will be rematches of last year’s Olympic gold medal match, which the U.S. won 1-0. Marta has retired from international soccer, but Pride midfielder Angelina was called up for these friendlies, along with former Pride forward Adriana. Lorena, who has only conceded one goal in three games for the Kansas City Current this season, will likely get the start in goal for Brazil behind a talented back line anchored by Tarciane. The USWNT will need to find ways to limit attacking threats like Kerolin and Gabi Portilho as well. These should be matches, with familiar faces on both sides for Orlando fans.

U.S. Set to Host 2031 Women’s World Cup

It looks like the 2031 Women’s World Cup will be held in the U.S., as FIFA President Gianni Infantino stated that the only bid came from the U.S. and potentially other Concacaf nations. The U.S., which withdrew from hosting the 2027 World Cup, would be the first country to host the tournament three times and last hosted it in 2007. The United Kingdom was also revealed as the lone valid bid to host the 2035 World Cup and it would be the first time the tournament is hosted there.

Free Kicks

  • Shout out to Orlando City’s U-19 team for its title win and securing a spot in the MLS NEXT Cup playoffs.

That’s all for this fine Friday, I hope you all have a fantastic day and a relaxing weekend!

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Orlando City

Orlando City Relies on Starters More Than Any Other MLS Team

An analysis of Óscar Pareja’s early lineup choices and substitution patterns and how that compares to the 2024 season.

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

Legendary swordsman Inigo Montoya, a man who is not lefthanded, once opened a conversation by asking the Dread Pirate Roberts if, by any chance, he had six fingers on his right hand. Nobody will need to prepare to die by the end of this column, but I will ask a similar question: I don’t mean to pry, but did you by any chance happen to realize that we are already more than one-sixth of the way through the MLS regular season? Six fingers, one-sixth of the season…close enough. Let’s go.

Time flies when you are having fun, and somehow Orlando City has already played 540 minutes of MLS soccer this season. I consider 500 minutes played to be a cutoff amount when looking at player and lineup performance, and with the conclusion of the most recent game in Los Angeles, the team has now surpassed that 500-minute threshold.

In looking at the opening 540 minutes, I was surprised to see how much continuity I found in the minutes played, considering how many injuries the Lions have had to work around during these first six games. In just the first six games, Orlando City has already had full games missed due to injury by César Araujo (1), David Brekalo (2), Robin Jansson (2), Duncan McGuire (3) and Nico Rodriguez (5). Brekalo and Pedro Gallese both missed a game for international duty as well. McGuire was not expected back during the first set of games, but all of those other players, with the possible exception of Rodriguez, were expected to contribute during the early part of the season.

These absences led to games where the substitutes list was full of players who will play big minutes for Orlando City B this year, but not players who Óscar Pareja was likely to turn to off the bench unless the game was out of hand or he was absolutely desperate. According to Opta’s tracking through the opening six games, Orlando City ranks last in MLS in the average minutes played by its substitutes, as the average amount of time per appearance for the players off the bench for the Lions is only 12 minutes. For context, 16 teams have an average amount of time per substitute appearance of 20 minutes or greater, and Inter Miami and Toronto are tied with a league-leading 27 minutes per substitute appearance.

The interesting thing about those two teams, Miami and Toronto, is that Miami leads the league in points per match with 2.6 and Toronto is second from the bottom with a scant 0.33 points per match. I think a lot of this data will even out over time, as right now there are several teams, including Miami, that are playing in multiple competitions and trying to keep players fresh for all of their matches.

When it comes to Orlando City, however, that is not the case, and thus far there has just been the standard one game per week on six consecutive Saturdays. The players are rested for each game. The issue has just been that Pareja has not had the depth and variety of players he thought he would have to bring off the bench to protect a lead or chase a deficit.

We often joke in articles or on The Mane Land PawedCast about how “Óscar gonna Óscar,” and once he finds a lineup he likes, he sticks with it. Even with all the injuries he has somehow managed to do this again this season, as you can see from the chart below. I started tracking lineup data last season, and even though the 2025 season is only six games old and there have been so many absences from key players this season, it was striking to see that the 11-man lineup that has played the most minutes together this season already outranks all but two lineups from the entire 2024 MLS season (including the five playoff games!):

Now, it is a little unfair to the one 2025 lineup on the above chart that it has such a negative goal differential per 90 minutes, because if it is only the 10 field players, with goalkeeper excluded, then that lineup has played 215 minutes together and has a +0.84 goal differential per 90 minutes. That group is +4 with Javier Otero in net in 74 minutes together, and removing the goalkeepers from the calculation turns that negative goal differential into a positive.

What that also tells us, however, is that when it comes to the 10 field players, Pareja has played the same unit in the field for 40% (215/540) of the team’s minutes already. Granted it is early in the season, but after six MLS games last season, the lineup that had played together the most had played a grand total of 74 minutes together (14% of all minutes). The top five most used lineups in last season’s opening six MLS games combined to play 302 minutes, or 56% of all minutes, and in 2025 it is 402 minutes, or 80%. My math, and everyone else’s math, says that is a much higher percentage and indicates that the team is focused on continuity early.

That continuity thus far this season has paid dividends, with the Lions earning 10 points from the first six games, twice as nice as last season’s five points after the first six games. Last year, the team was balancing midweek Concacaf Champions Cup games in addition to injuries and an international break during the opening weeks of the MLS season, so there were some good reasons for the lineup rotation and the slow start. This year’s squad will have to navigate two upcoming cup tournaments in the coming months, and so we likely will see a lot of new lineup configurations or more rotation once the U.S. Open Cup starts in May and then again when Leagues Cup starts in July.

Thus far though, Pareja has been able to stick with his starters deep into matches, and has only given playing time to 20 players, which is tied for third fewest across all of MLS. Fan bases often clamor for the coach to “play the kids,” but while Pareja has had young and inexperienced players on the senior roster for every game, he really has only given significant minutes to Alex Freeman from the group of players that could be referred to as “the kids.” Gustavo Caraballo has played nine minutes, which is incredible for a 16-year-old (15-year-old Cavan Sullivan of Philadelphia is the only player younger than Caraballo to have played this season, and he has also played only nine minutes), and new signing Nico Rodriguez (20 years old) has played 11 minutes, but the next three youngest players to play are all at least 22 and were with the senior club last season (Otero and Ramiro Enrique) or came to the club after four seasons of college soccer (23-year-old, but nearly 24-year-old, Joran Gerbet).

The team’s record thus far shows that Pareja has been right to limit the minutes to the small group of players he trusts, and with one game per week for the next six weeks it will be interesting to see if the early trend of starters playing long minutes and only a few players getting all the minutes off the bench continues. The next match is on the road against Philadelphia, which so rudely came into Orlando and defeated the Lions 4-2 in the season opener, and my expectation is that while we likely will not see any players make their season debut in this game, I do think we will see a different starting lineup than the season opener and probably a different one than the game last weekend against the Galaxy.

No matter who the Lions go with, I am sure they will want to avenge the season-opening loss and bring three points back home to Orlando.

As we wish.

Vamos Orlando!

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