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Intelligence Report: Orlando City vs. Portland Timbers

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The Portland Timbers are trending upward, taking two points from their last two after being battered in their opening matches of 2018. But they travel across the continent to Central Florida to take on an Orlando City team that is also on the upswing after a wild 4-3 victory over the New York Red Bulls.

There’s a new boss at the helm in the Rose City and, while the bulk of the roster has remained intact, the team that topped last year’s Western Conference has struggled to get results this time around.

For what to expect of this year’s Timbers, we’ve asked Will Conwell from Portland’s SB Nation blog Stumptown Footy to give us some insight. I also answered some questions about our side and you can find them over at their place.

How has life been after Caleb Porter and how has Giovanni Savarese left his mark on this team?

Will Conwell: Saravese has certainly had an impact on the Timbers through four games this season, changing up the side’s tactical approach after five years of playing under Porter. In those four games there have been definite struggles as the team looks to adjust to their new look, but as the team has adapted to Saravese and Saravese has adapted to the team, the results have gone from disappointing to encouraging over the course of the Timbers’ season-opening road trip.

Under Porter, the Timbers developed an identity as a team that was capable of holding the ball and would wear down teams with their possession, as well as being a side capable of picking their moments and striking out on the break after dropping deep and welcoming their opposition forward.

In many ways, Saravese’s preferred approach to the game is the opposite of this. Given the right personnel, Saravese would love to be a team that actively presses high up the pitch, turning over the opposing team deep in their own end and creating the sort of high value chances that come when the defense is out of its shape. Unfortunately, while the Timbers’ attacking trio of Fanendo Adi, Diego Valeri, and Sebastian Blanco are all capable of being quite active on the defensive front, none seem particularly inclined toward the sort of high energy performance it takes to press all game.

That is not to say that the Timbers have abandoned the high press. In last weekend’s 2-2 road draw against the Chicago Fire, the Timbers were able to put the home side on the back foot for much of the match, getting the opening goal early in the match after turning over the Fire and taking advantage on the break. Saravese is still determining how best to make use of his players, but the seeds that he has planted with the side are showing definite signs of growth.

Portland’s defense struggled through March, allowing nine goals in four matches. Liam Ridgewell’s exclusion from the side has been a major talking point; are the two things related?

WC: Ridgewell was on the field for six of the Timbers’ nine goals allowed so far this season and as the team captain, his lack of effort in the side’s 4-0 week two loss to the New York Red Bulls was particularly galling.

In the first two matches that the Timbers — and Ridgewell — played, the side were disorganized and disheartened. The back line was out of sync, the midfield was disconnected, and the forwards were stranded on an island by themselves. Not all of that can be pinned on Ridgewell, but as a veteran and the team captain, it is on him to rally the side through words or deeds and it appeared that he went for neither.

What’s more, Ridgewell’s game has long been built around his ability to take a timely step up and break up a play with a headed ball away, an interception, or a timely foul. Without a dedicated defensive midfielder in front of him, dropping back onto the back line as David Guzman or Diego Chara did so often in 2017, Ridgewell has struggled to keep from opening up holes on the back line through his play. In the right situation and the right formation, Ridgewell’s instincts could still serve him well, but with the changes that Saravese has looked to implement this year he has often been the odd man out.

Recent word from the Timbers camp is that Ridgewell has taken the benching like a professional and is training well. Ridgewell is training so well, according to word from this week’s training sessions, he is in consideration for a return to the 18 this weekend. This is all, of course, exactly what the Timbers should be saying and after two weeks in exile, it seems as likely as not that the Timbers will continue to turn to Larrys Mabiala and Bill Tuiloma, the self-proclaimed “French Connection,” to be their starting center backs.

How has the team dealt with Darlington Nagbe’s high-priced departure over the off-season?

WC: The loss of Nagbe to Atlanta United, the Timbers’ first draft pick and a staple of the side since they joined Major League Soccer in 2011, has been difficult for the Timbers to deal with as they adjust to life without him.

Nagbe brings a number of things to the pitch, but first and foremost is an absolute inability to lose the ball. A pass anywhere near Nagbe at any speed is as good as received. Getting the ball on Nagbe’s foot means that he will get off a pass to another player on his team just about every time. Losing that remarkable knack for possession makes things difficult for the Timbers. Without Nagbe, the Timbers have lost one of their most effective pressure release valves. They no longer have a player that they can just pass the ball near and expect good things to happen.

At the same time, the loss of Nagbe has been freeing for the Timbers.

Nagbe’s unwillingness or inability to get involved in the attack in a regularly effective manner has long been a source of frustration for anyone who watches him play. Without Nabge on the pitch, the Timbers have looked to Sebastian Blanco to provide many of the same services in transition that Nagbe once did and they have profited from it. While Blanco is far from the possession machine that Nagbe was for the Timbers, his creativity, flair, and attacking mindset have already paid dividends this year with three goals and an assist through four games.

In Nagbe’s absence and with teams unable to ignore the dual attacking threats of Diego Valeri and Fanendo Adi, Blanco should continue to flourish this year. 

What injuries/suspensions will keep players out this weekend and what is your projected lineup and predicted final score?

WC: (4-3-2-1) Jake Gleeson; Vytautas Andriuškevičius, Bill Tuiloma, Larrys Mabiala, Zarek Valentin; Christhian Paredes, Diego Chara, Andres Flores; Sebastian Blanco, Diego Valeri; Fanendo Adi

2-1 Orlando, with a Will Johnson goal and a Dom Dwyer red card.


Thanks again to Will for taking the time to provide some information on this weekend’s visitors.

Orlando City

Converting More Big Chances Could Propel Orlando City’s Season Into An Epic Universe

An analysis of Orlando City’s conversion rate on big chances and an evaluation of the impact of a small improvement .

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Dan MacDonald, The Mane Land

If you could all hop in the Wayback Machine with me, I would like to take you all the way back to Sunday, May 18, 2025. It was a glorious day, punctuated by a 3-0 victory over Orlando City’s southern rivals Inter Miami. The Five Takeaways article about that game was pretty awesome too, and in that article, the dashingly handsome and spellbindingly brilliant author noted that Orlando City “could, and probably should, have scored five or even six goals” against Miami.

You probably surmised that the author of that Five Takeaways article was me, and I appreciate your immediate recognition of my handsomeness and brilliance. I am also pretty confident that you believe that Orlando City should have scored more than three goals as well, and I am here to tell you that the eye test and the tracking data agree. The wonderful site fotmob.com tracks a statistic coded by analysts from Opta called “big chances,” which they define on their frequently asked questions page as:

A situation where a player should reasonably be expected to score, usually in a one on one scenario or from very close range when the ball has a clear path to goal and there is low to moderate pressure on the shooter. Penalties are always considered big chances.

The key words in their definition are “reasonably be expected,” and so, while the word ‘expected’ is in this definition, do not confuse “reasonably be expected” with “expected goals” (xG). I think of expected goals more like a geography problem, kind of like the game show Where in the World is Carmen Sandiego? Was that an excuse just to mention that one of my best friends was a contestant on that show in 1994 and won a trip to Orlando? A gentleman never tells.

Back to the geography problem, expected goals is really just a mapping exercise, mapping conversion percentages to locations all over a soccer field and then summing up all the shots taken from those locations in a game. By that measure, fbref.com had Orlando City with an xG of 2.9 against Miami, extremely close to the actual output of three goals. Earlier in the season, however, the xG tracking was 1.6 against Toronto…but the Lions scored four goals.

There are countless examples of the real results not matching the xG. While I value xG and just finished reading a great book called How To Win The Premier League: The Inside Story of Football (soccer)’s Data Revolution, which details the history of expected goals and how the author — the former director of research at Liverpool — helped build the first analytics department at a Premier League club using xG as a foundational measurement tool, I still think xG needs to be used alongside other measures and cannot stand alone by itself.

One of the main reasons I think it needs to be combined with other data is that xG requires a shot to be taken, and sometimes that does not happen. Consider Orlando City’s third goal against Miami, if Duncan McGuire’s cross had gone untouched then the xG on that play would have gone from 0.56 to 0.0, because without a shot attempt there is no shot location, and no map coordinates to use to find the xG for that area of the field.

This takes us back to that definition of big chances, which notably does not include a requirement for a shot to be taken. Duncan McGuire’s pass clearly created a chance to score, and that pass, combined with the perfectly timed run from Dagur Dan Thórhallsson, meant that Orlando City had a great opportunity to score from a location where anyone with eyes would think that “a player should reasonably be expected to score.” If Thórhallsson had whiffed, then the xG would have said no sir, you get 0.0 xG, even though everyone who watched that pass would have said, “Oh my, he should have scored that, what a big chance missed.”

Note: Thórhallsson did not miss, and it was glorious.

According to Opta’s tracking, Orlando City had eight big chances in the game against Miami. Which sounds closer to your memory of that match: Orlando City’s xG was 2.9 or Orlando City created eight big chances to score? I think most people probably think of the latter and remember the breakaways and the close-range opportunities and how it seemed like Orlando City had so many clear chances to score.

Looking at the 2025 season to date, the Lions are tied for the MLS lead with 50 big chances thus far, and just as against Miami, you can see that their conversion rate on those big chances has not been great:

ClubBig ChancesBig Chances ConvertedConversion Rate
San Jose502040%
Orlando City501428%
Chicago461839%
Columbus461430%
Nashville411229%
Vancouver402153%
LAFC391436%
Miami392051%
Minnesota391436%
Portland371643%
MLS Average*3412.437%
  • *The MLS Average is the average of every team except Orlando City

If you were wondering, yes, 28% is among the league’s worst conversion rates on big chances. It is tied for second worst, ahead of only Austin, which must be driving its fans up the wall with a 19% conversion rate on 31 big chances. Maybe the release of Wicked at the end of 2024 put the kibosh on good things happening to those in green for a while. Vancouver, on the other hand, is out there Burning Blue like Mariah the Scientist (contemporary pop song alert), converting a league-leading 53% of its big chances.

For Orlando City, however, 28% feels right. It feels terrible, but it also feels right. How many times did it seem like it would be harder not to score than to score, but then the Lions went ahead and did not score? Luis Muriel leads the team with 12 big chances missed (second most in MLS), and while it takes an extreme amount of skill and work to get into position to miss chances, the reality is that 12 times independent analysts thought Muriel should reasonably have been expected to score and he did not.

Anytime there is a lower-than-average performance there is always a question of whether that performance is reality or if there is a regression to the mean coming. In this case, regression to the mean would actually be positive, or something more akin to ascension to the mean. If Orlando City performs at a conversion rate similar to that of the rest of the league, the Lions will score about one additional goal per every 10 big chances, or an additional five goals over their next 50 big chances generated.

Considering that the Lions generated those 50 big chances in 14 games, it is easy math to double that and put Orlando City at 100 big chances after 28 games at the current pace. That extra five goals, were it to happen and the team continued to similarly convert its “small chances,” would net the team 32 goals in the next 14 games, and take the team to 59 after 28 games, with six more games still to play in the season.

Readers of UpRoar, the weekly newsletter for The Mane Land’s Buy Me a Coffee subscribers, which you can subscribe to by clicking this link, will know that Orlando City’s offense is already on pace to break the club’s MLS goal-scoring record, which is…wait for it…59 goals, and so, if the Lions could start converting more of their big chances, then the 2025 team could not only break that record but smash it — like, epically smash it like the Super Smash Brothers.

And speaking of…what better way to celebrate today’s official opening of Epic Universe but to imagine Óscar Pareja and the coaching staff out there training their goal-scoring dragons and super Marco and Luis-gi to tame the dark world of opposition defenses with their Harry Potter-esque offensive wizardry?

That would be epic, and if you are asking me what the coaching staff should do, that is what I pick.

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Orlando City

Orlando City vs. Nashville SC: Five Takeaways

Here’s what we learned from a regrettable 3-2 loss to Nashville SC in the U.S. Open Cup.

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

Orlando City came into the U.S. Open Cup Round of 16 match against Nashville SC riding a 12-match unbeaten streak, including a 3-0 thrashing of in-state rival Inter Miami on Sunday. The Lions’ next match against the Portland Timbers looms on Saturday. Despite the glut of matches, Orlando fielded most of the normal starters in an effort to advance. Unfortunately, the Lions fell 3-2 to the visitors to end any hopes of another Open Cup trophy. Here are my five takeaways from a disappointing midweek match.

Pasalic Power

Marco Pasalic decided he wanted to do it all himself on the first goal. As he has so often, he went up the right side before cutting in to the left and burying an absolute rocket of a shot into the back of the net to give Orlando City the early lead. It’s the type of goal we’ve come to expect from Pasalic since his arrival and it was his first U.S. Open Cup goal on his debut in the competition. Unfortunately, he’ll have to wait until at least next year for his next USOC match.

Tired Starters

One could see that the Orlando City defenders were running on tired legs. It seemed obvious in the two goals given up in the first half. The first goal bounced around in the box and then off of Rodrigo Schlegel for an own goal. On the second goal, no one stepped to Ahmed Qasem at the top of the box, allowing him to put an easy shot into the bottom right corner of the goal.

Alex Freeman was near Qasem, but had to anticipate a pass to the wing. Cesar Araujo trailed Qasem passively, and he was not in position to do anything when the Nashville attacker opted to take the space the defense gave him. On the left side, Nashville’s attackers torched David Brekalo from the start. The defense simply looked tired, including Araujo in central midfield.

Enrique’s Equalizer

Orlando City came back out after halftime looking much better on the ball. The tactical adjustments worked as the team pushed for an equalizer. Working along the right side of the attack, Freeman sent the ball to Pasalic, who smartly provided a one-touch pass to Ramiro Enrique for the finish. It was a well-worked attack and a beautiful finish.

Handball Debacle

In the 72nd minute, there was a handball in the box on Nashville’s Wyatt Meyer. Unfortunately, referee Joshua Encarnacion did not make the call. To make matters worse, he then gave Freeman a yellow card for dissent a little further down the field seconds later. There is no video review in the U.S. Open Cup, so there was no second look available to make the correct call. It was a double whammy of a situation. To then pour salt on the wound, Meyer scored Nashville’s third goal to give the visitors the lead again.

Taking it Too Seriously?

Oscar Pareja takes the U.S. Open Cup seriously. So seriously that he started most of the regulars despite the emotional and physical toll taken in the match against Inter Miami and the volume of minutes they’ve played throughout May every three days. Initially, it looked to be the right decision, but the two first-half goals by Nashville put that into question. The number of minutes played by some of the starters — who will need to play against the Portland Timbers this weekend — may turn one loss into two. That being said, I wanted Pareja to prioritize the Open Cup over the Leagues Cup, and we’ll find out in July and August if that’s the case.


Those are my takeaways from Orlando City’s 3-2 loss to Nashville in the U.S. Open Cup. It was a disappointing result on a night where Nashville didn’t bring their A-squad, but did bring its A-game.

Let us know your thoughts about the Nashville SC match in the comments below. Vamos Orlando!

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Lion Links: 5/22/25

Orlando City ousted from U.S. Open Cup, OCB’s Justin Ellis named Player of the Matchweek, Tottenham wins Europa League, and more.

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

Well, that could have gone better. It’s understandable to feel a bit deflated after Wednesday night’s game, especially after so many positive Orlando City results as of late. The good news though is that we’re another day closer to a holiday weekend that should include some good times or at least rest and relaxation. Let’s dive into today’s links!

Orlando City Eliminated from U.S. Open Cup

The Lions lost 3-2 at home to Nashville SC in the U.S. Open Cup’s round of 16, ending the team’s run in the tournament. Orlando struck first in a rollercoaster of a match, and Ramiro Enrique pulled the Lions level after they fell behind, but rookie Wyatt Meyer scored the winner for the visitors. The loss snapped Orlando’s 12-game unbeaten streak across all competitions and Orlando looked like a team that played five other matches already this month. Orlando will need to shake off this loss as it prepares to host the Portland Timbers on Saturday.

Justin Ellis Named MLS NEXT Pro Player of the Matchweek

Orlando City B midfielder Justin Ellis was selected as MLS NEXT Pro Player of the Matchweek for his role in the team’s 3-0 win over Inter Miami II. Ellis, who turned 18 years old last week, assisted on both of OCB’s first two goals before scoring from the penalty spot himself. It’s been quite the year so far for Ellis, as he also scored six goals in the Generation Adidas Cup to help Orlando win the U-18 title in April. The Young Lions are back in action Friday with a road match against rival Atlanta United 2.

U.S. Open Cup Round of 16 Results

Comebacks were a theme throughout the U.S. Open Cup’s round of 16. Minnesota United took the lead, gave it up, and ultimately advanced thanks to defender Anthony Markanich scoring two late goals to beat St. Louis City 3-2 at Allianz Arena. Markanich was traded from St. Louis to Minnesota last year, adding a little salt in the wound for the visitors. D.C. United and Charlotte FC battled in a back-and-forth match that ended up with D.C. winning the penalty shootout after a 3-3 draw. The match between the New York Red Bulls and FC Dallas also went the distance, with the Red Bulls winning the shootout. The Philadelphia Union won 4-1 against the Pittsburgh Riverhounds to eliminate the last team from outside MLS. The draw for the quarterfinals will take place this morning.

Tottenham Hotspur Wins Europa League Final

Tottenham prevailed in this year’s Europa league final, winning 1-0 against Manchester United in Spain. Brennan Johnson’s goal was enough for Tottenham to end its 17-year wait for a major trophy. It was a bit of an underwhelming finish to what was a fairly exciting knockout stage, and this was United’s only loss in this year’s tournament. Tottenham has now qualified for next season’s Champions League despite currently being 17th in the English Premier League standings.

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That’s all I have for you this time around. I hope you all have a wonderful Thursday and rest of your week!

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