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Orlando City vs. CF Montreal: Final Score 2-0 as Lions Get Road Shutout to Earn Playoff Spot

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3 years ago

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Orlando City didn’t want to wait around for other results. The Lions got second-half goals from Sebas Mendez and Daryl Dike to win 2-0 at Stade Saputo in Montreal and punch their ticket to the MLS playoffs. It was a nervy game but Orlando (13-9-12, 51 points) finished with a club record in points and wins and showed fortitude to beat a desperate CF Montreal (12-12-10, 46 points) in its own building after the disappointment a week ago in stoppage time.

Mendez’s goal was his first as a Lion and Dike finished the season with 10 by scoring the insurance tally late. Orlando finished in sixth place in the Eastern Conference after the Decision Day results were in, and although it looked for a while like a win might bring a home playoff match to Orlando, other results changed and the Lions will visit Nashville in the first round of the postseason.

“Once again, a very difficult match with urgencies today. There was no tomorrow,” Orlando City Head Coach Oscar Pareja said after the match. “It must be done today, here in Montreal. After what happened against Nashville at home, it was very difficult to absorb, but the players showed a lot of character. I liked our game. I thought we were very smart today. We tried to neutralize them and just take our special moments to find the game. So we are very pleased, very happy for for the club, and we will get ready for Nashville.”

Pareja turned in his 34th team sheet of the season without his first-choice starting XI. Pedro Gallese took his spot in goal behind a back line of Emmanuel Mas, Robin Jansson, Antonio Carlos, and Ruan. Mendez and Junior Urso roamed central midfield with an attacking midfield line of Benji Michel, Mauricio Pereyra, and Silvester van der Water, with Dike up top. Nani was on the bench and Uri Rosell returned to the game day roster but notably missing were Joao Moutinho, who had been upgraded to questionable this week, and Chris Mueller.

The first half had an obvious playoff feel with both teams playing hard and looking for an advantage. The hosts pressed high and made life difficult for Orlando to play out of the back, which was an interesting tactic given that Montreal played on Wednesday. While the press didn’t create many turnovers, it did prevent Orlando from finding space between the Montreal lines.

Orlando had the first good flurry of opportunities. Michel cut onto his right foot and fired over the bar in the 10th minute and a minute later Samuel Piette upended Dike just outside the area, conceding a dangerous free kick. Pereyra got his shot up over the wall and it was on target but it was saved by a diving Sebastian Breza as the ball was too close to the center of goal.

On the ensuing corner kick, a good delivery from van der Water found Dike but his flicked header skipped wide of the far post.

After that flurry, the hosts got on the front foot for a few minutes and should have scored in the 16th minute. A ball across the front of goal by Zachary Brault-Guillard just needed a tap-in but Sunusi Ibrahim’s touch took the ball across the front of the goal line and Gallese scooped it up.

Five minutes later, Mas tried to cut in front of an attacking player but missed the ball. Torres was in alone but Gallese came off his line, made himself big, and produced a vital save to keep it scoreless.

“They came out with a lot of pressure today, and especially in the first half created some chances,” Jansson said. “And we had our big guy back there, Pedro, saving us sometimes today and he’s just fantastic.”

In the 23rd minute, Carlos sent a diving header wide of the left post on a set piece, although it appeared that Breza had the play covered.

Orlando’s best chance came in the 37th minute. Urso was fouled about 30 yards out and Pereyra tapped the ball to Jansson. The Beefy Swede smashed a left-footed shot toward goal but it crashed off the right post and went out of play as the Lions came within inches of opening the scoring. It was Orlando’s third time hitting the woodwork in a game and a half.

Two minutes later, Montreal appeared to score the opener but Ibrahim was well offside before firing home.

Rudy Camacho blocked another long-range effort from Jansson in the 41st minute and the ensuing corner kick cross skipped through the 6-yard box but no Lions were lurking to knock it in. That was the last good chance of the half and the teams went to the locker room without a goal on the board.

Orlando had more first-half shots (7-6), but Montreal got more on target (2-1). The Lions held more possession (51.7%-48.3%), while the hosts earned more corners (4-2) and passed more accurately (84.9%-80.9%).

Pareja inserted Andres Perea into the match at halftime to help solidify the midfield, withdrawing van der Water. Meanwhile, Montreal brought on the dangerous Romell Quioto for Ibrahim.

Quioto’s presence made an instant difference in Montreal’s attack. Djordje Mihailovic fired a shot just four minutes after the restart that Jansson blocked. It fell to Quioto but he was in an offside position. Montreal continued to have success getting the ball to the dangerous Mihailovic, who always seemed just inches from picking out a teammate for a clear-cut chance.

But instead, it was Orlando that struck first.

A long throw-in by Mas was only partially cleared by the defense and it fell for Mendez outside the area on the left. The Ecuadorian took it on the bounce and placed a perfect shot just inside the far post to open his Orlando City account and put the Lions ahead in the 55th minute with a sensational goal.

“The goal is a great personal goal for me, and it was an important goal to help send us through to the playoffs, which is an objective that we’ve been working towards all year,” Mendez said through a club interpreter. “So, it was obviously a happy moment for me, but now we’ve got to turn our attention to start working towards a bigger goal and a bigger objective, which is to win our next playoff game.”

“That’s, amazing. What a hit from Sebas,” Jansson said. “I didn’t expect that when he hit the ball, but I’m so happy for him.”

It’s often said that a team is vulnerable right after scoring and that nearly proved the case for the Lions. Just four minutes after Mendez broke the deadlock, Quioto thought he had Montreal level. He headed home a good ball into the area but the flag came up immediately. The video assistant referee ruled that there was no error on the play. The play was certainly close, with Jansson possibly keeping Quioto on, but the TV camera angle on the broadcast wasn’t in a good spot to get a proper look at it. This is the angle we had and it’s not a straight down the line shot.

Broadcaster Evan Weston reported that VAR confirmed the call, which is quite different than just letting it stand due to it being inconclusive, but whatever angle showed it conclusively wasn’t on the broadcast.

The stadium showed the replay on the scoreboard and Montreal players started confronting referee Armando Villarreal. Montreal coach Wilfried Nancy was booked for his outburst on the bench. Eventually, order was restored and the teams played on.

Mihailovic again got into a dangerous position in the 64th minute but before he could shoot, Urso stopped him with a professional foul and received a booking. Mihailovic went for goal on the ensuing free kick but hit it well over the goal.

As the game entered its later stages, the Lions continued to sell out defensively, playing with urgency in their own end. Dike and Ruan earned free kicks with their hustle to shut down Montreal attacks. The hosts were able to win corners but Orlando did well to avoid allowing many clear-cut chances from them, although Victor Wanyama came free and bundled it wide on one such set piece in the 75th minute.

With the game still poised on a knife edge, Montreal went down a man in the 79th minute. Camacho came charging forward and flew into a challenge with studs up, taking out Dike. Villarreal wasted no time going to his pocket for his red card and the hosts were down to 10 men. It was the first red card by an Orlando opponent in the 2021 season.

After a couple more corners, the Lions capitalized on their manpower advantage as Montreal pressed more players into the attack. Ruan took possession of the ball and made a strong run up the field, cutting slightly inside to split two players. He then sent a perfect through ball into the path of Dike, who took a touch and then slotted past Breza to make it 2-0 in the 86th minute.

Pareja sent on defensive subs Rodrigo Schlegel, Kyle Smith, and Tesho Akindele to see the game out and the Lions were able to do that without allowing another good opportunity. Bjorn Johnsen got a weak header on frame in the 94th minute but it was an easy catch for Gallese. Orlando saw out the remaining minute of stoppage time and earned its playoff spot.

Montreal finished with more shots (12-10) but each team got three on target. The hosts also held more possession (55.1%-44.9%), won more corners (12-4), and passed with more accuracy (83.7%-76.6%).

“I think today we were more patient with the game,” Pareja said. “Our games at home against Montreal, we wanted to go press them high and and somehow we didn’t have that fina touch in the last third that can give us the opportunity to score. And Montreal on isolated plays hurt us. Today was the opposite.”

“We knew that we were going to come into a game that was going to be hotly contested,” Mendez said. “So, we came in with everything we had and now we’re in the playoffs and ready to move forward to the next weekend.”

That’s it for the 2021 MLS regular season. Orlando City will travel to Nashville for its first-ever road playoff game.

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Orlando City

Orlando City’s Opener Marked by Negative Events Unlikely to Reoccur

An evaluation of four key unlikely events that contributed heavily to the 4-2 loss to the Philadelphia Union.

Published

16 hours ago

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February 27, 2025

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

The first article I wrote for The Mane Land was in June of 2024, and by that time Orlando City had played 20 games and there was already a robust amount of data to look at and analyze, and trends were already visible. We are now at the beginning of the 2025 season, and while the one-game sample size makes it feel like the team is terrible, horrible, no good, and very bad, I want to urge everyone to heed the words from this week’s The Mane Land PawedCast and please do not panic.

Despite my love for hip hop music I will also urge you not to listen to French Montana’s “Don’t Panic,” as it is actually a terrible, horrible, no good, and very bad song, but I agree with Montana’s central theme of going ixnay on the anic-pay.

With their season-opening loss, Orlando City is no longer able to get to 100 points this year, but let’s be honest, nobody ever thought that was going to happen, even among the most optimistic of optimistic Lions fans. On the whole, I thought Orlando City actually played pretty well, the Lions just had one of those when-it-rains-it-pours games, and there was a confluence of negative events that happened during Saturday’s match that I think are unlikely to happen again this season, especially not all in the same match:

  • A late scratch of a starting defender, forcing a back line that had never played together to start the match with zero preparation time.
  • Zero saves and four goals allowed by Pedro Gallese.
  • Three shots that hit the woodwork.
  • Six “big chances” squandered.

Let’s take a look at each of these and evaluate the likelihood of them happening again this season. You may be surprised by just how rare the events that befell the Lions were.

A late scratch of a starting defender, forcing a backline that had never played together to start the match with zero preparation time

My guess is that during the preseason Orlando City had moments in practice when the back line consisted of (from left to right) Rafael Santos, Rodrigo Schlegel, David Brekalo and Dagur Dan Thórhallsson, but that group had never played a minute together in a real match until the season opener. In addition, during the last week of practice in advance of the game, the team surely was focused on a game plan of a Santos-Jansson-Schlegel-Thórhallsson starting group, since that was the announced lineup one hour before kickoff. Losing Jansson was a double blow, as not only did the Lions have to alter their lineup, but he is also the captain and one of the best defenders in the league.

I believe that as the season progresses there will be more defensive lineups used that have never played together before, especially as matches get into the second half and the team makes substitutions, but the likelihood of a late scratch right before a game starts and the team being forced to go with a back line with zero minutes played together is low, especially now that the group that started against Philadelphia — and that same group, but with Alex Freeman instead of Thórhallsson — has logged minutes together.

Reoccurrence Likelihood: 3%

Zero saves and four goals allowed by Pedro Gallese

I want to start by saying that to lay the blame on Gallese for the Union scoring four goals on their only four shots would be unfair, because three goals were scored at point-blank range and the fourth was shot into an open net that he had little chance to cover because of how that goal developed. That said, goalkeepers can and do make saves, even on shots from point-blank range, so Gallese could have possibly positioned himself differently or communicated more to the defense earlier to snuff out the attack. I do not think he bears all the blame, but he is not blameless either.

Looking at El Pulpo’s career, fbref.com shows Gallese having started 266 club matches as the goalkeeper, playing for clubs in Peru, Mexico, and in MLS with Orlando City. There were nine matches when he allowed at least four goals while making zero saves, which is 3.4% of his starts. With Orlando City specifically, he had four matches like this out of his 136 starts, which is 2.9%. In a 34-game regular season each game accounts for…would you look at that, 2.9% of the season, so I think the likelihood of another four-plus goals allowed and zero-save game is very low, especially for a goalkeeper of Gallese’s caliber.

Reoccurrence Likelihood: 5%

Three shots that hit the woodwork

The Lions smashed three shots off the woodwork against Philadelphia — two off the crossbar (Freeman and Luis Muriel) and one off the post (Marco Pašalić). Muriel and Pašalić hit theirs within seconds of one another, right before Pašalić got the ball back yet again and finally deposited the shot into the net. Hitting the post feels better than missing the goal entirely and better than having a shot saved, but not that much better, since none of those scenarios result in a goal. It may feel a little better, since the shot was (literally) on frame and got by the goalkeeper, but it does not help on the scoreboard.

Going back to the beginning of 2023 Orlando City has played 77 MLS matches, including regular season and playoffs, and in only two of those matches did the Lions put more than two shots off the woodwork. That works out to 2.6%, or once per every 38.5 games, but I think the team’s offense is going to be more prolific this year in terms of shots taken per game, and with a good amount of attacking talent, I think the shots will be more likely to be on and around the goal, leading to a slightly increased possibility of another game of two or more shots off the woodwork.

Reoccurrence Likelihood: 10%

Six “big chances” squandered

Fotmob takes everyone’s favorite metric of xG (expected goals) and calls any shot with an xG of 0.15 or greater as a “big chance.” That value is approximately a one-in-six chance of scoring, so we can quibble all day about whether that should be a big chance or not, but if we use that as a baseline, then there were six shots against Philadelphia that were big chances but were not capitalized on. All six of these happened in the second half and were the aforementioned three shots from close range that went off the woodwork by Freeman, Muriel and Pašalić, Pašalić’s close-range attempt that was blocked after Andre Blake fumbled a header from Schlegel, Muriel’s header that Blake saved at full stretch, and Iván Angulo’s shanked mis-hit shot off a great cross from Freeman.

Once again, going back to the beginning of 2023, the Lions have played 77 matches, and they only even created six or more big chances four times total, but twice in those four games they squandered at least six big chances. Two out of 77 is the same 2.6% as it was before, and using similar rationale, I also think that with a better offense will come more big chances, and unfortunately also the ability to miss out on scoring on big chances. Orlando City went one-for-seven in big chances against Philadelphia (Pašalić’s second goal was the one success), and once again I think there is a slight increase in probability for there to be another game when the Lions create six or more big chances but do not score on at least six of those chances.

Reoccurrence Likelihood: 15%

If you listen to The Mane Land PawedCast, you likely know our hosts Michael and Dave will often say that they were told there would be no math when discussing various statistics, but they were never told that by me. In looking at the four events that happened in the opening game, I have assigned the reoccurrence likelihoods to be 3%, 5%, 10%, and 15%.

There is some level of interdependency between these events, so they are not truly independent, but let’s pretend that they are four unique independent events. In that case, to find the probability of a game like the season opener happening again you would do that like this:

Probability = .03 x .05 x .10 x .15

That probability is approximately one in 44,000, which can also be referred to more colloquially as really, really, really unlikely. As I mentioned, there are some dependencies. For example, hitting the woodwork and squandering big chances can be linked, but to have another game where all of these events happen is still unlikely, even if I was way off on my estimates for the reoccurrence likelihoods.

There are 33 regular-season games remaining to play, and even if all of these events do not happen in the same game, Orlando City still needs to try to avoid any of them happening, because as individual events they were not great, and collectively they were a disaster. Couple that with what was likely one of the worst touches of Schlegel’s career at the exact wrong time and it all led to a loss against a team that was eminently beatable.

I view this is as a silver lining, and if you are interested in other silver linings, I wrote several of those in our weekly private newsletter, available only to those who subscribe to our Buy Me a Coffee membership at the TAM Player level or above, which you can do by clicking on this hyperlink. We would love to share even more content with you.

Orlando City has a great opportunity in its next game to show that the season opener was an aberration, full of bad luck and once-in-a-season-type negative events, and the Lions can make us forget all of that by getting a first win under their belt by defeating Toronto FC in the season’s second game. I believe that they will do so, and I am looking forward to watching it happen with my own eyes in Inter&Co Stadium on March 1.

Vamos Orlando!

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Orlando City

Orlando City vs. Toronto FC: Three Keys to Victory

What do the Lions need to do to get back on track and secure a victory at home against Toronto FC?

Published

18 hours ago

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February 27, 2025

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC

The loss to the Philadelphia Union was not at all how Orlando City wanted to start the 2025 season. Now, the club must move on from the 4-2 defeat in order to deal with a visiting Toronto FC Saturday night. The Lions are notorious for having slow starts to the season, but after last week, getting some points against Toronto is imperative.

How the Lions bounce back from an embarrassing defeat to start the season will determine how big the climb up to the top will be. What does Orlando City need to do to earn all three points at home against Toronto FC?

Deal with the Italian

Toronto has a forward named Federico Bernadeschi. Perhaps you’ve heard of him. He scored eight goals for Toronto last season, and he already has one this season. Granted, he scored that goal on a penalty kick against D.C. United, but he is still a dangerous player for the Canadian side.

My worry is that Bernadeschi typically lines up on the right side of Toronto’s attack, meaning it will be up to Rafael Santos to deal with him. I mentioned last week that we need “Good” Rafa to show up earlier this season. Unfortunately, it was still “Bad” Rafa we saw against the Union. His job doesn’t get any easier this week, making his performance crucial in limiting Bernadeschi’s impact.

Limit the Lapses

It took less than four minutes for Philadelphia to put the match out of reach last Saturday. Orlando Pride Head Coach Seb Hines often speaks of the importance of the times right before and right after the half. Two Union goals in the first six minutes of the second half determined the match. Orlando City cannot let that happen again.

There is a real possibility that the Lions will once again be without Robin Jansson against Toronto. The back line must limit the mistakes and mental lapses that doomed them on Saturday. In particular, Rodrigo Schlegel and David Brekalo need to find the necessary chemistry to solidify the defense against Toronto’s attack.

Keep Creating Chances

Another match, another good keeper for the opposition. This week, Orlando City will need to put the ball past Toronto’s Sean Johnson. Last weekend, the Lions created plenty of chances with 22 shots, putting nine on target, and two in the net. In many matches, that is enough to at least get a result if not a win. They need to do more of that against Toronto.

I’m not expecting Marco Pasalic to equal his production from his first match, but I liked his willingness to take shots. I was worried about Orlando City’s offensive capabilities without Duncan McGuire or another prototypical striker. Actually, I’m still worried about it, but if the Lions can continue to create chances against Toronto like they did last week against Philadelphia, that will be a good thing. Of course, finishing those chances will always be key.

That is what I will be looking for Saturday night. Let me know your thoughts in the comments below. Vamos Orlando!

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Lion Links: 2/27/25

Getting to know Ramiro Enrique, USWNT loses to Japan, Concacaf Champions Cup results, and more.

Published

21 hours ago

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February 27, 2025

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

How’s it going, Mane Landers? I haven’t done too much this week beyond working, but I did manage to put together a cat tree that my cat has already sent crashing into a wall twice so far. Pet ownership has been a joy, I must say. Let’s dive right into today’s links from around the soccer world!

Learning More About Ramiro Enrique

Orlando City put a spotlight on forward Ramiro Enrique with a nice video showcasing what he brings to the team for the 2025 season. Along with interviews from Enrique and Head Coach Oscar Pareja, the video includes highlights of his some of his biggest moments as a Lion so far. The 23-year-old spoke on how his father, World Cup winner Hector Enrique, is a major inspiration for him and how he’s both a scorer and Orlando’s first line of defense. Pareja praised both Enrique’s natural talent and his commitment to improving himself moving forward. It’s a pretty well-produced video and I’m looking forward to seeing the profiles for other Lions as well throughout the season.

USWNT Falls to Japan in SheBelieves Cup

The United States Women’s National Team lost its final game of the 2025 SheBelieves Cup, falling 2-1 to Japan in San Diego. Japan took an early lead, but Ally Sentnor tied things up soon after with her second goal of the tournament. Toko Koga then scored for Japan in the 50th minute and the U.S. was unable to find the back of the net again against Japan’s solid defense. Orlando Pride defender Emily Sams did not play in the match despite a strong showing against Australia on Sunday. It’s the USWNT’s first loss under Head Coach Emma Hayes and its first time losing the tournament since England won it in 2019.

In what was effectively the third-place match, Colombia beat Australia 2-1 to finish the tournament on a high note. Australia’s Hayley Raso equalized things in the second half, but Catalina Usme gave Colombia its winner a few minutes later.

Bay FC Scouting Director Resigns Amid Backlash

Graeme Abel, who was hired as Bay FC’s director of domestic scouting last week, has resigned from his position. This decision comes after backlash from his hiring due to reported allegations of abuse by former players from his time as the University of Oregon’s women’s soccer coach. A report last April detailed allegations of verbal abuse that included threatening to revoke scholarships, having players kicked off the team, and throwing objects, with players stating that they dealt with suicidal ideation while playing there.

Concacaf Champions Cup Results

Real Salt Lake was eliminated from the Concacaf Champions Cup after losing 2-1 at home to Costa Rican club Herediano. The MLS side took the lead in the first half, but Herediano leveled things in the second half and sealed victory with a late penalty kick. FC Cincinnati took care of business at home in a 1-1 draw against Honduran club Motagua, with Kevin Denkey scoring in his third straight game for his new team. The Seattle Sounders also reached the next round, beating Guatemala’s Antigua GFC 3-1. Cincinnati will face Tigres in the round of 16, while the Sounders will take on Cruz Azul. The first round wraps up tonight when the Vancouver Whitecaps host Saprissa for the final spot in the round of 16, which kicks off on Tuesday.

Free Kicks

  • The Orlando Pride will unveil their new home jersey for the 2025 season today and I’m pretty excited to see what they’ve come up with. I’m also looking forward to seeing the team sport a shiny new star after winning last year, as teased by Marta.

— Orlando Pride (@orlpride.com) 2025-02-27T00:07:45.048Z

A very ✨ golden ✨ addition

— Orlando Pride (@orlpride.com) 2025-02-26T00:03:16.959Z
  • The Pride gave a shoutout to coaches Seb Hines, Giles Barnes, and Yolanda Thomas this Black History Month.

That’s all I have for you this time around. I hope you all have a fantastic Thursday and rest of your week!

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