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A Statistical Analysis of Orlando City’s Attacking Issues

Published

6 years ago

June 11, 2018

I know many of us are frustrated after Orlando City’s fifth straight defeat after a six-win run of form. The highs and lows of a season can be similar to a game of poker where you’ve doubled up, then immediately fallen down to the short stack in the next hand. It causes you to lose focus, react off of emotion, and is generally not a healthy response.

There are a lot of circumstances involved that I could argue why the Lions are in a good spot considering everything. However, I’m not blind that City has some serious attacking issues. We all know when Dom Dwyer hasn’t been on the pitch the team has had trouble finding ways to score. Dwyer has seven goals in eight appearances and that only leaves 17 goals for the other players on the team over 14 matches. When you look deeper into those numbers, you see that only four goals came in the six matches in which Dwyer didn’t play — one each against D.C., Minnesota, Toronto, and Chicago.

Out of all MLS teams, Orlando currently sits 10th in total goals scored, fifth in the East. That’s not bad for the sixth-place team in the East. But anyone that has given City the eye-test over the season would say that isn’t good enough. By diving into the statistics and comparing them to the style of play, there are some clear reasons why Orlando City’s attack has been stumbling despite what often appears as a threatening attack.

The Attack is Unbalanced

One of the ways you can tell if a team is having issues is where the attack is starting from. Is it primarily one-sided? Is it only using one wing specifically? If a team doesn't have balance, maximize its best players, or is not playing to the strengths of the formation, issues will arise.

Right now Orlando City is attacking at this rate:

43% left side.
25% middle.
32% right side.

There are two points that stand out to me immediately. The first is the balance left-to-right. Some of this has to do with the injury to Scott Sutter. One aspect of the 4-2-3-1 is that the wing backs have plenty of space to get into the attack. Without a true right back, City has been forced to sit deeper on the right side. Whereas on the left side, Mohamed El-Munir has arguably been one of the Lions’ best attacking players. A simultaneously good and bad statement.

This could also point to the trust the team has in Chris Mueller. While impressive in his rookie season, it would appear the outlets are going more towards Justin Meram — who’s usually there — and the left side.

I think it’s a bit of a combination that Mueller hasn't had the same support as Meram from his defenders and is therefore often disconnected more to the play or is forced to play by himself on an island.

The second point is the lack in which the attack is up the middle. A 4-2-3-1 should be dominating the middle. Especially considering one of your best players and, more importantly, best play-makers in Sacha Kljestan sits right in the middle, there should be more attack coming from the middle than currently. Kljestan needs to get on the ball more and facilitate the attack. Too often we’re seeing negative passes from his position and it’s showing in the balance of the attack.

The lack of middle play is also pointing to a major issue that the defensive midfielders aren't getting high enough. If the defensive midfield was getting into the attack more, as it should be, then that percentage would be 3-4% higher where I would rather see it. The fact we’ve yet to see the best balance of the defensive midfield with Yoshí Yotún and Uri Rosell together is part of the problem. And I would expect it to be better once Yotún gets back from World Cup duty.

Cristian Higuita and Rosell are a bad pairing together, as neither gets as involved or high up into the attack on a consistent basis. This often leaves a gaping hole in the middle third (something I’ll bring up later). Regardless, Higuita’s skill set doesn't lend him to be a consistent attacking cog and is better served alongside Yotún as well.

Middle Third and Attacking Third Percentages Show Problems

Orlando City ranks dead last in Action Zone percentage in the middle third, meaning that when the Lions have the ball, they control it the least in the middle third. This is as counter-intuitive to the 4-2-3-1 as you can get. The formation is dependent on the triangle in the middle of the pitch where the defensive midfielders and the the No. 10 role should be controlling the field in what is normally a mismatch of midfield numbers against a 4-4-2 or 4-3-3.

The above issues of the defensive midfielders points to why this percentage is very low. If the gap between Kljestan and the defensive midfielders is too large, you’re not going to be controlling the ball in the middle and it’s going to snowball into a host of other issues.

On the flip side, Orlando is fourth in action in the opposing third. That wouldn’t be a problem if it was scoring. The problem is the urgency. If a team is controlling a healthy amount of possession in the attacking third, you would believe this is leading to goals. However, without urgency, it’s not going to.

City needs to be more aggressive in the attacking third because that is what leads to what most see on the field right now: City looking for the perfect pass, often allowing the defense to get back into the play and choke any space that the team should have to score goals.

The Counter Attack is Non-Existent

So now you look at the fact Orlando isn’t controlling the ball in the middle third well enough. Combine that with dominating its play percentage in the attacking third and what becomes the issue? The obvious answer is urgency. That lack of urgency is more importantly killing the counter attack.

Again, pointing to the formation, it should be absorbing the attack and then getting out quickly through the middle to the wings to open up the game in the counter attack. The problem is Orlando only has one goal on the counter. Is only having one goal the issue? Not necessarily. I think it just points to the issue that City is slow in the attack and lacks urgency consistently. If that urgency was prevalent, I think you see a lot more goals on the counter.

Shots on Goal Are Too Low

If you haven't figured it out yet, each problem leads to another. Often, these issues are inter-connected. One causing the other in both directions then leading to even more issues. A core issue of urgency or confidence can create a variety of issues.

I’ve mentioned urgency already, but when you look at the possession in the attacking third, it shows other issues in the attack: a lack of confidence or —what would be much worse — lack of soccer intelligence.

The Lions’ shots per game currently rank 10th in the league. Compare that to their fourth in the league in percentage and something doesn't net out. What’s the problem? A lot of the time it is doing too much with the ball. Passing too much vs. looking to create opportunities, not getting the ball into the area enough, not taking chances.

You have to take chances in soccer. Taking chances creates opportunities when the defense misplays the ball in the area or even the chance of an own goal. City is nearly two shots less per game than the high end. You can’t score if you’re not shooting. The Lions need to find their confidence, stop looking for the perfect pass, and give themselves more opportunities.

Inefficiency with the Ball is Troublesome

Anyone that watched Saturday night saw the Lions get in trouble the most when the attack stalled due to loss of possession.

When it comes to turning the ball over, City is the fifth-worst team in MLS, losing on average 15.6 touches per game. This isn’t being dispossessed, this is simply poor touches leading to something negative. That means almost 16 times a match, someone on the field is handing it to the other team or stifling the attack because the focus or technical ability isn't there.

How often have we been frustrated watching a City midfielder kill an attack by a poor touch? Or give up a counter because a defensive midfielder can’t control the ball?

This then parlays into losing the ball when it’s at a players feet. If players are losing possession just by bad touches, add pressure into the equation and it won’t be getting any better. City is the sixth-worst team in the league at being dispossessed — losing the ball without a dribble. That means City players are holding the ball too much and not moving the ball as needed. It can also point to an issue of spacing and runs off the ball that is causing the player on the ball to have insufficient options.

You’re not going to win many games — or have an effective attack — without keeping a hold of the ball. But let’s say you took a look at those stats and saw a team like the Red Bulls alongside City on both those lists. A team that is sixth in goals scored. This points to the aggressiveness of the attack. If you’re passive and losing the ball you're going to score less goals. If you’re being aggressive and losing the ball, that aggressiveness should pay off in the end.

Stats can only tell so much. I’m sure there are other ways to dive into these stats, compare them to the best in the league, and come out with positives. One of my favorite shows was Numbers Never Lie on ESPN. You can make numbers tell a lot of stories.

What I think is important is that a lot of these tell us what we may already know. Orlando City needs to play with more aggressiveness and urgency. The middle of the team needs to be more involved in the attack and City must certainly take care of the ball, especially if it’s going to play at its current pace.

Many of these issues can be fixed with certain players coming back into the fold. Regardless, Kreis and the team need to identify these issues and solve them if they hope to continue to stay in the playoff picture.

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Reflecting on Eight Years with The Mane Land

A look back over my time with The Mane Land (so far).

Published

11 months ago

June 20, 2023

David Rohe

Nick Leyva, The Mane Land

As of last week, I have been a contributor at The Mane Land for eight years. That’s longer than I’ve ever been at any of my actual jobs in my life. There are literally only a couple of people who have been with the site longer, but I’m still amazed at how long it’s been. This is not to say I’m going anywhere, but rather I wanted to take the opportunity to look back at the past eight years, and look ahead to the future.

Unlike some, I didn’t come to be a supporter of Orlando City until it was announced that the club was joining MLS. At the time, I was contemplating picking a club to follow in MLS, but being in Tallahassee, there were no nearby options at that time. I considered FC Dallas and D.C. United, given the two were geographically closer in proximity to me than any others. Fortunately, it was literally while I was considering my options that the announcement was made regarding Orlando City’s jump to MLS. It was an easy decision.

As I do in many aspects of my life, I immediately started researching my new club, which led me to the content being produced by The Mane Land. There was also an article on the site titled “Join The Mane Land Staff.” I had often over the years internally bemoaned that I rarely used my Bachelor’s degree in English, and the desire to write welled up in me so much that I emailed the staff.

In response, one of our former editors, Andrew Marcinko, contacted me and said “I think your voice would be a great fit on TML.” He asked me to submit a Fan Post (those went away with our presence on SBN), and then another piece for review. Following that, our founder and managing editor, Michael Citro, emailed me to welcome me to the staff. I had no idea at the time how big a part of my life this blog would become.

I started out writing Monday’s Lions Links — often one of the more difficult days to write — and a feature piece. It’s been many years gone by now, but there was a time when the feature piece was “Pride Pub,” an ongoing series that paired craft beer and good food based on Orlando City’s opponent. I can tell you that the research for that was very enjoyable, and I still use some of the recipes I found to this day.

Eventually, I started contributing more match coverage and analytical pieces. Staff came and went, but I never thought to leave since I was enjoying myself. Sometime after that, I was promoted to senior columnist, for which I’m grateful. I can without reservation say that I’m a better writer thanks to my time with the site, and from working with such excellent staff.

In November of 2016, Michael asked if I wanted to give co-hosting The Mane Land PawedCast a try. My first recording was for Episode 71. We just recorded Episode 354, and with the exception of maybe two or three episodes, I have been on every single one of 283 episodes over the last six plus years. Michael and I have spent a lot of time talking on and off the podcast over the years, and I’m proud of what we have produced and to call him my friend.

We recently added an Orlando Pride-specific podcast called Skopurp: An Orlando Pride PawedCast. For years we wanted to give the Pride the time and attention the club deserves. Now, it is a reality, but one that I ask you to listen to and share. I’ll even put out that although Michael and I are the current hosts, we merely consider ourselves stewards and are hoping to get others to come onboard and eventually take it to the next level.

When I started with The Mane Land, the site had just made the move from a free WordPress site to the SBNation network. It was a big deal, and for many years it was a good partnership. Of course that all came to an end not too long ago, and our blog went the independent route thanks to the incredibly generous support of our readers and listeners. In fact, if you want to be one of those supporting our efforts, please go to our Buy Me A Coffee site to become a member. The move has allowed a flexibility we didn’t have before, but I really want others to have the same sense of joy and accomplishment that I have as a member of our staff.

At one point we had nearly twice the staff that we do now, and as you know, many hands make light work. The opposite of that is also true. I genuinely believe that there must be others out there with the same passion for Orlando City as I have — with the same desire to have their voice heard, whether through the written word or on a podcast. I promise you there is an opportunity to contribute here with us. Our internal discussions are informative, engaging, and often funny. Please consider joining us, as I did eight years ago. I haven’t regretted it and I know you won’t either.

I want to thank all of those who contributed to The Mane Land over the years. There are many that I am still in touch with, though they are no longer a part of the staff. Of course, the current staff are a pleasure to work with, and I appreciate their dedication to what we are trying to do.

Finally, I want to thank the readers and listeners over the years. From those who regularly comment on our articles, to those that I’ve personally met at matches or even randomly on the street, you are a big reason that we do all of this. You are a big reason why I’ve been doing this for the better part of a decade. it is always a genuine pleasure hearing your thoughts or simply sharing a moment of joy together — U.S. Open Cup final, anyone?

So, thank you. I look forward to many more years of this journey together.

Orlando City

The Mane Land Announces Membership Program

Maximize your Mane Land experience with our new TML membership program while supporting our independent efforts.

Published

1 year ago

May 4, 2023

Michael Citro

Hello, readers of The Mane Land and listeners of our podcasts. Before you start reading this, please note that the most important part of this post is at the end. So, don’t stop until you get to the bottom.

You may recall that when we left SBNation to become independent, we really weren’t sure the best way to go about that. Many of our readers and listeners generously offered to help us make that transition, but we still weren’t sure the best path forward, so we took a poll.

The poll was pretty much split down the middle between those who preferred a one-time, Kickstarter-style campaign (which we did, and those of you who stepped up to help completely blew us away!) and those who favored a Patreon-style, subscription-based membership with extra perks. In fact, the member subscriptions option got a few more votes in our poll.

The folks who took part in our GoFundMe fundraiser were fantastic and are now immortalized on this very site on the “Our Founders” page. But we had always planned to give folks the option to choose whichever method of support they preferred and we tried to communicate that throughout the process. It took a little longer than expected to get up and running, but our membership subscription program is now in place! (You may notice the fancy new banner ad about it on the home page, echoed below.)

*Supporting TML helps build a better TML for you to enjoy, so you’re really subscribing to your own Orlando soccer fandom.*

Part of that delay was thinking up something that didn’t encroach on the benefits we gave our Founders. Those folks helped us get started and deserve the exclusivity of the perks they got. The other part of the delay is that there just aren’t enough hours in the day. (However, for you guys, I’m willing to be cloned.)

We have utilized the popular Buy Me a Coffee platform to run this program. You can find the basics here. The Mane Land premium membership program includes three tiers of membership, as well as the option to click on the “Support” tab for those who just want to help us out whenever, without joining the program or adding any recurring “appointment-based” payments to their budgets. We love that feature of Buy Me a Coffee (or “Buy Us a Beer” in our case…you drink what you like).

For those who do choose to become members, we hope we have provided value and we are planning to add benefits along the way, in addition to providing special giveaways, events, etc. (more on that below). We have also provided subscription options — with monthly or annual memberships. The annual cost essentially gives you 12 months for the price of 10.

Current Benefits

The current membership benefits depend on which level of support you choose — Homegrown Player, TAM Player, or Designated Player level. Each level includes all benefits from the lower tiers, with additional benefits for each higher level.

Homegrown Player: This is a basic set-it-and-forget-it level of support for The Mane Land, providing a way for our readers and podcast listeners to contribute to the success of TML‘s independence goals. We want to compensate our current volunteers, replace lost income of those who previously received small stipends from being part of the SBNation network, add photographers, attract new writers, and expand our coverage. Additionally, each Homegrown Player Level member will be recognized in a Lion Links column, which is still typically our most widely read post of each day and one of the top daily links columns among soccer sites. Homegrown Player Level members will also be included in any future prize drawings we have or events we host and may be subject to future benefits as they are added.

TAM Player: In addition to Homegrown Player benefits, TAM Players will receive a new weekly e-newsletter in their inbox (unless you opt out…some people hate email). These will be informal missives from myself, other TML writers, or a combination, discussing what’s on our mind regarding Orlando City, the Pride, OCB, or soccer in general. Think of it as an extra post from our site that may cover multiple topics. Additionally, you’ll get a 10% discount from our web shop items that we control (presently, that means everything except our listed MLS Shop items). We will definitely have more benefits coming for this level soon and will look for opportunities to include additional benefits as they become available.

Designated Player: This limited availability level of support includes all perks from the Homegrown and TAM levels, but it goes beyond. Your discount at our webshop (for items we control) will be 15% off. Additionally, we’ll send you Zoom links to watch us “make the doughnuts” whenever we record the podcast. This includes when we interview guests. You’ll see how the sausage is made behind the scenes and everything that we say, some of which will end up on the cutting room floor before the final podcast is sent out. This includes both The Mane Land PawedCast and SkoPurp Soccer: An Orlando Pride PawedCast. And after two months of membership you can commission a bonus episode of either podcast simply by letting us know what topic you want us to cover. Think of this as an extended Ask Us Anything. We’ll do a whole show about your topic and you can even join us to discuss it if you wish.

The DP Level will certainly have additional benefits tacked on as we move forward. It is currently limited to 40 members but could be expanded slightly depending on demand and our Zoom attendance.

Future Benefits / Benefits Under Consideration

While we won’t be able to schedule these due to the random nature of items falling into our hands, there will be periodic prize giveaways in drawings that include all of our members, regardless of level. The catch is that you get one entry per level of support, meaning Homegrown Player Level members will get one entry per prize drawing, TAM Player Level members will get two entries per drawing, and Designated Player Level members get three entries for prize drawings. Some of the kinds of items we have come across in the past include match tickets, trinkets, posters, scarves, and so on.

We are planning to add a message board to our website, well…soon-ish is the word that comes to mind. The plan for the message board is to build our community and further the discussion about the club. As part of this, we’re planning an exclusive, members-only area of that message board that TAM and DP members can access. This will be a place our staff can share informational nuggets we can’t necessarily write stories about for various reasons and interact with our members on a daily basis.

Other things in the works include meet-and-greets/watch parties where you can chat with TML staff members and catch a road match with a bunch of like-minded Orlando City/Pride fans while we all cheer on the team together. There may also be other informal outings with one or more members of the staff, organized fantasy leagues, random Zoom calls for Q&A sessions, and perhaps even some organized group outings for Orlando City / Pride matches, national team games, etc.

The Most Important Part of This Post

Remember at the top of this post, when I said the most important part is at the bottom? Well, that seems like a long time ago, now, so it’s OK if you’ve already forgotten.

The most important part of our membership program is you. We want your feedback so we can make this program something that interests and excites you. We want to know what you like and dislike about this program. We want to know if there are some things we didn’t think of that interest you. If you like what we’re offering, tell us! If you hate what we’re offering, we want to know what you’d prefer instead or in addition. If you want to go drinking with Dave, we can probably arrange that, but it’ll be a unique tier and we’ll have to figure out the cost of that.

No idea is too crazy to suggest, even if it’s too insane for us to actually offer. Let us know what you want from your subscription and we’ll see if that’s something we can do. We’ll make it easy for you by putting the form right here below this post, which is now concluded.

Uncategorized

Welcome Home!

Published

1 year ago

March 31, 2023

Michael Citro

Where do I even start? When we were told in January that SBNation was pulling its support of The Mane Land and other MLS and NHL blogs — and many podcasts — I was devastated. The site had become my new baby in September of 2014 and after eight and a half years, I wasn’t ready to let it go.

I was in a pickle. I couldn’t afford to lose the monthly stipend I had been getting from SBNation to manage the site and provide a steady stream of content. It wasn’t that it was a huge monthly sum, but it mostly covered my car payment. That car was purchased when my salary was higher. The pandemic hit my day job like it did to many, and after a four-month layoff, I got my old job back but not at the same rate. So, imagine taking a pay decrease at work and then, on top of that, losing the amount you spend per month on your car payment. There was simply no way to launch The Mane Land independently, I thought, because I simply couldn’t cover the startup costs. Even with some generous offers from the staff to pitch in, there simply wasn’t a way.

Once we took the news public, there was an outpouring of support on social media. We appreciated both the pledges to help out that we got from the community and the signal boosting that the national media gave blogs like ours. Those national folks rely on local reporting for background.

Encouraged by this outpouring of public support, I met with the TML staff and we threw some ideas around. We polled our Twitter followers to see how our community would prefer to show their support. We got pretty close to a 50/50 split between those who wanted to provide a one-time donation via a Kickstarter or GoFundMe crowdsourcing effort, and those who would prefer some sort of premium subscription add-on service like Patreon or Buy Me a Coffee.

We didn’t get a lot of responses to that poll, but we decided as a group that since the results were so similar, we would offer both and let the public choose one path, the other, or even both. (Stay tuned for news soon-ish on the premium subscription level, but rest assured, everything you’ve been getting for free at TML will remain free!)

I was, admittedly, skeptical that we could raise enough startup money to create a private business, pay for hosting a new site and two podcasts (having long wanted to give the Orlando Pride their own unique show), registering a domain, paying for some design work and consulting, and any unexpected expenses that might come up. However, I thought we’d at least give it a try.

Then the amazing Orlando City, Orlando Pride, and TML community got involved. You guys pushed us past our bare minimum goal in just four and a half hours when our fundraiser went live on March 1. We reset our goal and you met that by midnight. We reset our goal again, to the dream total we discussed on our initial staff Zoom chat and you met that by that first weekend.

Stunned. Humbled. Amazed. Touched. All of these words apply to how that made us feel, but they don’t quite cover it. I think we all felt an enormous responsibility, as well. We felt a mandate to provide you the best site and the best coverage we can.

We got everything we needed to run the site for two years, even if we don’t earn a penny after our launch — and we plan to try, via advertising, a Patreon (or similar) program, an online shop, affiliate links, and anything else we can think of. But we decided to leave the GoFundMe open through the end of March, just in case there were folks who wanted to contribute but needed to wait for payday, or if more people wanted to become founding members of this new site.

Now, here we are. You guys did this. We’re here because of you. And this site isn’t quite what it will become. I’m still learning my way around WordPress, after being away from it for years. There’s more to build, and some of the things you’re seeing on this site now will be improved in the future. We’ll continue to tweak it, add things, and upgrade as we go.

For now, I just want to welcome you to your new online home. On behalf of our entire staff, I thank our founding members, who are now immortalized on this site in our founders section. If you weren’t able to contribute to our transition from SBNation’s network to an autonomous and independent, new version of The Mane Land, you can thank the folks on our founders page, because without them, we wouldn’t be here. And if you still want to help out, we’ve got more things on the way.

Vamos.

Michael Citro
Managing Editor