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A Statistical Analysis of Orlando City’s Attacking Issues

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I know many of us are frustrated after Orlando City’s fifth straight defeat after a six-win run of form. The highs and lows of a season can be similar to a game of poker where you’ve doubled up, then immediately fallen down to the short stack in the next hand. It causes you to lose focus, react off of emotion, and is generally not a healthy response.

There are a lot of circumstances involved that I could argue why the Lions are in a good spot considering everything. However, I’m not blind that City has some serious attacking issues. We all know when Dom Dwyer hasn’t been on the pitch the team has had trouble finding ways to score. Dwyer has seven goals in eight appearances and that only leaves 17 goals for the other players on the team over 14 matches. When you look deeper into those numbers, you see that only four goals came in the six matches in which Dwyer didn’t play — one each against D.C., Minnesota, Toronto, and Chicago.

Out of all MLS teams, Orlando currently sits 10th in total goals scored, fifth in the East. That’s not bad for the sixth-place team in the East. But anyone that has given City the eye-test over the season would say that isn’t good enough. By diving into the statistics and comparing them to the style of play, there are some clear reasons why Orlando City’s attack has been stumbling despite what often appears as a threatening attack.

The Attack is Unbalanced

One of the ways you can tell if a team is having issues is where the attack is starting from. Is it primarily one-sided? Is it only using one wing specifically? If a team doesn't have balance, maximize its best players, or is not playing to the strengths of the formation, issues will arise.

Right now Orlando City is attacking at this rate:

  • 43% left side.
  • 25% middle.
  • 32% right side.

There are two points that stand out to me immediately. The first is the balance left-to-right. Some of this has to do with the injury to Scott Sutter. One aspect of the 4-2-3-1 is that the wing backs have plenty of space to get into the attack. Without a true right back, City has been forced to sit deeper on the right side. Whereas on the left side, Mohamed El-Munir has arguably been one of the Lions’ best attacking players. A simultaneously good and bad statement.

This could also point to the trust the team has in Chris Mueller. While impressive in his rookie season, it would appear the outlets are going more towards Justin Meram — who’s usually there — and the left side.

I think it’s a bit of a combination that Mueller hasn't had the same support as Meram from his defenders and is therefore often disconnected more to the play or is forced to play by himself on an island.

The second point is the lack in which the attack is up the middle. A 4-2-3-1 should be dominating the middle. Especially considering one of your best players and, more importantly, best play-makers in Sacha Kljestan sits right in the middle, there should be more attack coming from the middle than currently. Kljestan needs to get on the ball more and facilitate the attack. Too often we’re seeing negative passes from his position and it’s showing in the balance of the attack.

The lack of middle play is also pointing to a major issue that the defensive midfielders aren't getting high enough. If the defensive midfield was getting into the attack more, as it should be, then that percentage would be 3-4% higher where I would rather see it. The fact we’ve yet to see the best balance of the defensive midfield with Yoshí Yotún and Uri Rosell together is part of the problem. And I would expect it to be better once Yotún gets back from World Cup duty.

Cristian Higuita and Rosell are a bad pairing together, as neither gets as involved or high up into the attack on a consistent basis. This often leaves a gaping hole in the middle third (something I’ll bring up later). Regardless, Higuita’s skill set doesn't lend him to be a consistent attacking cog and is better served alongside Yotún as well.

Middle Third and Attacking Third Percentages Show Problems

Orlando City ranks dead last in Action Zone percentage in the middle third, meaning that when the Lions have the ball, they control it the least in the middle third. This is as counter-intuitive to the 4-2-3-1 as you can get. The formation is dependent on the triangle in the middle of the pitch where the defensive midfielders and the the No. 10 role should be controlling the field in what is normally a mismatch of midfield numbers against a 4-4-2 or 4-3-3.

The above issues of the defensive midfielders points to why this percentage is very low. If the gap between Kljestan and the defensive midfielders is too large, you’re not going to be controlling the ball in the middle and it’s going to snowball into a host of other issues.

On the flip side, Orlando is fourth in action in the opposing third. That wouldn’t be a problem if it was scoring. The problem is the urgency. If a team is controlling a healthy amount of possession in the attacking third, you would believe this is leading to goals. However, without urgency, it’s not going to.

City needs to be more aggressive in the attacking third because that is what leads to what most see on the field right now: City looking for the perfect pass, often allowing the defense to get back into the play and choke any space that the team should have to score goals.

The Counter Attack is Non-Existent

So now you look at the fact Orlando isn’t controlling the ball in the middle third well enough. Combine that with dominating its play percentage in the attacking third and what becomes the issue? The obvious answer is urgency. That lack of urgency is more importantly killing the counter attack.

Again, pointing to the formation, it should be absorbing the attack and then getting out quickly through the middle to the wings to open up the game in the counter attack. The problem is Orlando only has one goal on the counter. Is only having one goal the issue? Not necessarily. I think it just points to the issue that City is slow in the attack and lacks urgency consistently. If that urgency was prevalent, I think you see a lot more goals on the counter.

Shots on Goal Are Too Low

If you haven't figured it out yet, each problem leads to another. Often, these issues are inter-connected. One causing the other in both directions then leading to even more issues. A core issue of urgency or confidence can create a variety of issues.

I’ve mentioned urgency already, but when you look at the possession in the attacking third, it shows other issues in the attack: a lack of confidence or —what would be much worse — lack of soccer intelligence.

The Lions’ shots per game currently rank 10th in the league. Compare that to their fourth in the league in percentage and something doesn't net out. What’s the problem? A lot of the time it is doing too much with the ball. Passing too much vs. looking to create opportunities, not getting the ball into the area enough, not taking chances.

You have to take chances in soccer. Taking chances creates opportunities when the defense misplays the ball in the area or even the chance of an own goal. City is nearly two shots less per game than the high end. You can’t score if you’re not shooting. The Lions need to find their confidence, stop looking for the perfect pass, and give themselves more opportunities.

Inefficiency with the Ball is Troublesome

Anyone that watched Saturday night saw the Lions get in trouble the most when the attack stalled due to loss of possession.

When it comes to turning the ball over, City is the fifth-worst team in MLS, losing on average 15.6 touches per game. This isn’t being dispossessed, this is simply poor touches leading to something negative. That means almost 16 times a match, someone on the field is handing it to the other team or stifling the attack because the focus or technical ability isn't there.

How often have we been frustrated watching a City midfielder kill an attack by a poor touch? Or give up a counter because a defensive midfielder can’t control the ball?

This then parlays into losing the ball when it’s at a players feet. If players are losing possession just by bad touches, add pressure into the equation and it won’t be getting any better. City is the sixth-worst team in the league at being dispossessed — losing the ball without a dribble. That means City players are holding the ball too much and not moving the ball as needed. It can also point to an issue of spacing and runs off the ball that is causing the player on the ball to have insufficient options.

You’re not going to win many games — or have an effective attack — without keeping a hold of the ball. But let’s say you took a look at those stats and saw a team like the Red Bulls alongside City on both those lists. A team that is sixth in goals scored. This points to the aggressiveness of the attack. If you’re passive and losing the ball you're going to score less goals. If you’re being aggressive and losing the ball, that aggressiveness should pay off in the end.


Stats can only tell so much. I’m sure there are other ways to dive into these stats, compare them to the best in the league, and come out with positives. One of my favorite shows was Numbers Never Lie on ESPN. You can make numbers tell a lot of stories.

What I think is important is that a lot of these tell us what we may already know. Orlando City needs to play with more aggressiveness and urgency. The middle of the team needs to be more involved in the attack and City must certainly take care of the ball, especially if it’s going to play at its current pace.

Many of these issues can be fixed with certain players coming back into the fold. Regardless, Kreis and the team need to identify these issues and solve them if they hope to continue to stay in the playoff picture.

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A Few Words About the Future of The Mane Land

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For the last 11 years, The Mane Land has worked hard to provide daily content telling the story of Orlando City SC, the Orlando Pride, OCB, and any other soccer-related events we can get to in the Central Florida area. We love doing that, but we’re at a critical stage in being able to do so. Staff has been difficult to replace in recent years, and we’ve come to a point where some of us have not only been stretched to an unsustainable limit, but we’ve been going at that rate for multiple years without a break.

To that point, TML is now at a critical juncture where we must have more contributors who can cover live events in order to survive in our current format (and possibly at all). For the past few years, we have had only two primary game night writers covering three teams, and we are unable to continue at that pace, regardless of how much we enjoy doing it.

To continue as an entity, we’re going to need anywhere from two to four new contributors who can pitch in with game-night coverage of Orlando City/Orlando Pride matches. Additionally, another copy editor is essential, while two more would be preferred.

We’d like to continue into 2026, but if we can’t get the additional help we need, the current plan is to shut down at the end of the 2025 calendar year. The minimum we need to carry on would be two new live event writers and a copy editor.

What does this mean? Well, if you’ve ever thought it would be cool to cover soccer matches (it is) or thought about joining us, now is the time to volunteer. If you enjoy soccer and talking about this club with your friends, you might be perfect for our team, because if you can talk about soccer, you can probably write about it as well. Writing is just talking on a screen with your fingers, after all.

To get started, please write to us at themaneland@gmail.com and let us know how you’d like to contribute — writing, editing, etc.

It is important to note that we do this out of a love for the beautiful game and these positions are on a voluntary basis. However, if freed from the shackles of such an overwhelming schedule, my goal is to spend more time creating strategic partnerships and promoting our membership platform that could combine to bring in revenue that would go toward compensating staff writers. Additionally, some of our staff members have gone on to more financially rewarding opportunities as a result of their time with us. You never know what this experience will lead to. Like anything else in life, you’re likely to get out of it what you put in.

The good news is that we have already reached out to our Founders and our Buy Me a Coffee subscribers about this subject, and several have shown an interest in helping, so we are in the process of exploring those potential contributors at the moment.

We Are Currently Seeking:

  • Match writers – You don’t need a degree in journalism or English to write for us. If you like to talk about soccer, you can probably write about it as well. Staff writers contribute regularly to our game coverage, which could be in the form of recaps, player grades pieces, five takeaways posts, etc. We have a need for this on both the Orlando City and Pride sides, and you can do both if you want. If you’re not local to the Orlando area, you can cover road matches via the broadcast/stream.
  • Editors – Can you spot a subject/verb disagreement from a mile away? An editor position may be for you! How often do you get to correct people without anyone shaming you for it? This position will edit copy for submitted stories, make headlines punchier and more SEO-friendly, and ensure the story has a properly cropped/centered photo that helps tell the story. Typically you’ll only be on “desk duty” one or two evenings per week when it fits your schedule. You may also write stories if you wish!

About TML

Our little blog became an idea and then an independent WordPress site in late September of 2014, and went live on SBNation in December of that year. When SBNation stopped funding nearly all of its MLS blogs a few years ago, we went independent again, and we’ve long been the only outlet providing daily coverage of Orlando City’s teams. Even the club doesn’t post new content to its website every day!


FAQ

Why shutter the site at the end of December? Why do you need help now when the season doesn’t start for a couple of months?

Preparing to cover three teams requires advance planning. Each year, we put together a publication schedule to ensure all our bases are covered. This includes what will run (a placeholder or sometimes the specific piece) on every day of the year, which obviously doesn’t take into account breaking news or extra features that people want to do. Setting up this publication schedule also includes noting when major soccer events are coming, known USMNT/USWNT scheduled matches, MLS and NWSL deadlines, player birthdays, important milestones and anniversaries, and more. We also put together volunteer sign-up sheets for grades and takeaways posts. That setup work is all for naught if we don’t have the bodies to physically cover the team when the season starts. Also, it’s easier to pull the plug on our LLC at the end of a calendar year. None of us want to stop, but we have to be realistic about being able to continue covering the team as we have.

Why not just scale back and cover what you can? Do you have to cover every game?

I don’t have a good answer for this other than I would not feel right about putting my name on a product I don’t believe in. I don’t ever want our audience to have to guess whether or not they’re getting a game recap or any follow-up analysis from a given match. In my opinion, we have never had the personnel to fully provide what I envision. For example, I want to add more video content, player grades and recaps for the Pride games, and to bring back weekend Lion Links and OCB match previews. And we should have a lot more features and analysis pieces! In short, we’re already doing the bare minimum that I’m comfortable with. And, I have to be honest: if there was a game coming up with no one to cover it, knowing me, I’d probably just do it myself, and I already know I can’t continue the pace of the past few years. I have to save me from myself sometimes.

Could The Mane Land continue in a different form?

I have toyed with the idea of turning TML into a newsletter. This might be a daily that includes a Lion Links-type section and opinion/analysis of club news. It would not include match coverage or any kind of regular news. I almost pivoted to that when SBNation stopped funding us, but we decided to make a go of it as an independent outlet. The problem with the newsletter style is that I can’t do it daily every single day or it would be no different than the situation I’m in, so some help would still be needed. Some of that could come from the current TML staff, but I’m not sure all of it could, and the newsletter format is not for everyone, so we’d be leaving part of our audience behind. I’m not sure it’s the way to go.

Is new management or investment needed?

Possibly. I am willing to sell the name and logo and turn over all our passwords for someone else to take over the operations, which would free up a considerable amount of my time. I’m even willing to continue on as a writing and editing contributor, because I love covering the club. Some of the other staff might as well. But I would not be interested in covering every single match. I’m not a kid anymore, and I have a regular job, a family, and other side gigs that require my attention.

Will you still do the podcasts if the site shuts down?

No. I think if we decide to shut down, it will be across the board. I much prefer our written content, and that’s the reason I started our outlet to begin with. I feel the podcasts complement our coverage and give us more of an opinion platform and a way to discuss matches in a deeper, richer way, but I’m not interested in doing only the podcasts. That said, others on our staff might want to continue and I’m OK with that.


Contact us at themaneland@gmail.com today to get started as a new contributor!

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PawedCast Episode 506: Cincinnati Rewind, OCB-Carolina Core, Columbus Preview, and More

The Lions claimed a late draw at Cincy and now host Columbus while OCB’s playoff hopes hang by a thread.

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Image of Alex Freeman celebrating after scoring the tying goal at Cincinnati.
Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Jeremy Reper

Orlando City left it late again. Tyrese Spicer reprised his role from the Nashville game by providing the assist for a goal late in stoppage time, but this time it was a different goal scorer and a road draw instead of a home win. Alex Freeman played great against FC Cincinnati, so it was fitting that he literally pulled a point out of thin air on a Sunday night that saw the Lions squander numerous good opportunities to score while allowing the hosts only one Kevin Denkey strike.

We look back at the key moments, players, and plays of a critical road match, check our score predictions, and make our selections for Man of the Match, splitting the vote

This week’s mailbagbox asked us a pair of trivia questions and added an individual question for each host. Remember, if there’s anything — and we do mean anything — you want us to address on the show, just ask us by tweeting it to us at @TheManeLand with the hashtag #AskTMLPC, or hitting us up on Bluesky Social with that same hashtag.

OCB got two points at Carolina Core FC when it needed three, but it did enough to stay alive in the postseason race but there is no margin for error. The Young Lions fell behind by two goals, battled back to get level, conceded again, and once again equalized on the road. Carlos Mercado then helped his team win the penalty shootout on his birthday to claim the extra point. OCB must beat FC Cincinnati 2 on Sunday at home and get help to reach the postseason.

Finally, Orlando City returns home with another game against a good team from the Buckeye State, as the Columbus Crew visits Inter&Co Stadium on Saturday. Whether Diego Rossi plays or not, the Crew are always a difficult opponent. We break down the series history, look at the battle ahead, provide our key matchups, and make our predictions for the final score.

Be sure to rate and review our show wherever you get your podcasts. Remember, we’ll read any five-star reviews we get on Apple Podcasts on the next show.

If you’d like to support our independent writing and podcasting efforts, we’d love to have you as a subscriber or donor over at our Buy Me a Coffee site.


Here’s how No. 506 went down:

0:15 – Orlando City didn’t seem to want to put the ball in the net, but maybe that’s because it wasn’t yet the death of stoppage time. Earlier goals are OK too, guys!

27:55 – The mailbagbox offers trivia, but no prizes if we get them right.

39:11 – OCB was listening to Meat Loaf and thinking two out of three ain’t bad, and the senior Lions prepare for Columbus.

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PawedCast Episode 502: Galaxy Rewind, Ramiro Enrique Transfer News, OCB Defeats Crown Legacy, and More

Lions leave Leagues Cup empty handed, Ramiro Enrique could be on the move soon, OCB gets a vital win, and more

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Image of Oscar Pareja giving his team directions.
Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

I couldn’t tell you why this show is nearly an hour other than the fact that we are verbose. Orlando City crashed out of Leagues Cup with back-to-back losses in games that had a Concacaf Champions Cup berth on the line. The Lions did almost nothing in the first half against the LA Galaxy on the road, and threw Martin Ojeda’s second-half equalizer away just seven minutes after he scored it with a horrendous turnover in their defensive third.

We discuss Orlando City’s 2-1 road loss, which featured one of Pedro Gallese’s best-ever saves as a Lion, although it ultimately didn’t matter much, looked back at our score predictions, and made our selections for Man of the Match.

We also discussed Seattle’s 3-0 win over Inter Miami in the final and the shenanigans that the Herons pulled after losing.

Ramiro Enrique was not in uniform Sunday night in the wake of reports that he’s about to be sold for a reported $3 million to a Saudi team. Although the timing isn’t perfect, it would be a good return for the Argentine striker.

This week’s mailbagbox asked about ice cream, donuts, Carlos Mercado vs. Javier Otero, and more. Remember, if there’s anything — and we do mean anything — you want us to address on the show, just ask us by tweeting it to us at @TheManeLand with the hashtag #AskTMLPC, or hitting us up on Bluesky Social with that same hashtag.

OCB picked up a much-needed three points with a home win over Crown Legacy at the death that nearly immediately became a draw at the even more death. Mercado was sensational in the match for the Young Lions and Thalles scored the timely goal to push the club over the playoff line for the time being. I nearly started to preview an OCB game that is more than a week ago, but the important thing is I stopped myself, otherwise the show would have been even longer.

The senior Lions are also off this week, so we’ll see you next week!

Be sure to rate and review our show wherever you get your podcasts. Remember, we’ll read any five-star reviews we get on Apple Podcasts on the next show.

If you’d like to support our independent writing and podcasting efforts, we’d love to have you as a subscriber or donor over at our Buy Me a Coffee site.


Here’s how No. 502 went down:

0:15 – Orlando City looked to be following the same script as in the win at LA back in March, but then coughed up the ball in a dangerous spot to one of the Galaxy’s best scorers.

29:36 – The mailbagbox is trying to make us fat(ter).

46:38 – OCB has put together two consecutive late wins as the Young Lions try to get back into playoff contention after several rough weeks.

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